Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Oil Futures Set to Exceed $80 a Barrel: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is set to exceed $80 a barrel if it can move above $75.27, according to Richard Ross, a technical analyst at Auerbach Grayson, a brokerage in New York.Oil futures topped $74.59 on Aug. 21 for the first time since Aug. 7, which was a breakout from a “symmetrical triangle formation,” according to Ross.

The next price target for oil is $83.53 a barrel, which corresponds with the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the range generated by the October contract’s high of $145.79 on July 14, 2008, and the low of $45.13 touched on Feb. 18. The next target of $95.46 would be a 50 percent retracement.“Once you take out the recent high there isn’t a lot of resistance,” Ross said in a telephone interview. “It could be a fast move to $83.”

Crude oil for October delivery increased 98 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $73.89 a barrel on Aug. 21 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Oct. 20, 2008.The Fibonacci sequence was identified by Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13th century. The ratio between the numbers, about 0.618, is known as the golden mean, and is used by technical analysts to find levels of resistance and support.

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