(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is poised to climb more than $15 a barrel to about $90 if it can breach technical resistance at its 200-week moving average, according to Citi FX technical analysts. “We think it’s the biggest pivot point as far as the oil price goes, and it will tell us where the next $10 to $15 move is coming from,” said Tom Fitzpatrick, chief technical analyst at Citi FX, part of Citigroup Capital Markets in New York.Oil for October delivery settled at $72.74 a barrel last week, $1.91 below the 200-week average of $74.65. A breach is a weekly close above the resistance level, not a daily or intraday move. Crude touched a 2009 high of $75 a barrel on Aug. 25, before retreating to end the week down 1.6 percent.
Oil last crossed the 200-week moving average in October on its way down to $32.40 in December, the lowest since February 2004. Before that, it spent more than five years above the average, as crude rallied to a record $147.27 a barrel in July 2008.“As we’ve seen in the course of the last five years, it’s acted as a very good pivot point,” Fitzpatrick said. “If we do hold it here, it could be the peak in this rally and the beginning of the move down.”Oil could then test support at about $58 a barrel, Fitzpatrick said. Crude dropped to $58.32 in July after failing to breach the 200-week moving average in June.
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