Weekly Technical Commodity Outlook

Weekly Fundamental Outlook for Energies and Metals - Commodities Remain Sensitive to Data Flows as Few Evidence Supporting Demand Recovery

ONG Focus - Insights
Written by Oil N' Gold
Rebound in USD and correction in risky assets (including stock and commodity prices) signaled reversal of market sentiment in the near-term. Disappointing confidence and home sales data in US shook investors' confidence in global market recovery. The dollar index rebounded +1.1% to close at 76.3 while Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index lost -3.5% to settle at 270.38.The focus next week will be on monetary policy again as all of the Fed, ECB, BOE and RBA will meet to discuss about rate. While the first 3 central banks will keep the policy rates unchanged, the RBA is expected to raise the cash target rate by 25 bps again.

http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/insights/weekly-fundamental-outlook-for-energies-and-metals-commodities-remain-sensitive-to-data-flows-as-few-evidence-supporting-demand-recovery-200910319558/

ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's correction from 82.00 continued last week. Despite intra-week strong recovery, crude oil was limited below 82.00 high and weakened to new weekly low on Friday, indicating that such consolidation is still in progress. Initial bias is on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 65.05 to 82 at 75.53 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 71.52. On the upside, break of 80.46 minor resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 82.00 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, with daily MACD crossed below signal line, a short term top should at least be in place at 82.00. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, whole medium term rebound might have completed too. FOcus now turns to trend line support (now at 70.48). Break there will add more credence to this case and bring deeper decline to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. On the upside, above 82.00 will indicate that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.




















ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold fell further to as low as 1026.9 but was supported above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 931.3 to 1072 at 1018.3 and recovered. An intraday low should be in place and initial bias is neutral this week. While some more sideway trading might still be seen, short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1018.3 fibonacci support holds. Break of 1072 high will bring rally resumption to 1100 psychological level next. On the downside, however, decisive break of 1018.3 will indicate that recent rise has completed and deeper decline should be seen to 985.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 985.0) instead.

In the bigger picture, the long term up trend in Gold has resumed after taking out 1033.9 resistance firmly. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, though, break of 985.5 support will dampen this bullish view and will turn focus back to 931.3 support instead.

In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. However, break of 931.3 support will indicate that medium term rise from 681 has possibly completed. This will also open up the case that long term consolidation from 1033.9 is not completed yet and has just started the third falling leg.