Commodity Weekly Technical Outlook

ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil dived further last week and closed below 70 level at 69.87. Break of the medium term trend line support serves as another indication of medium term reversal. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week for 65.05 support first. On the upside, above 71.50 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited well below 79.04 resistance and bring fall resumption. In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The break of medium term trend line support last week affirms this case and should pave the way to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. As noted before, rise from 33.2 is treated as part of the correction pattern that started at 147.27. Firmed break of 58.32 support will argue that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 79.04 is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.

Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's fall from 1227.5 extended further to as low as 1110.2 last week and the break of 1130.1 support, as well as the sustained trading below the near term channel, indicates that rise from 931.3 has likely made a top already. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week as long as 1148.4 resistance holds. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1079.4 next. On the upside, above 1148.4 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1227.5 and bring another fall to continue the correction.In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is expected to develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and has possibly completed at 1227.5 after missing 100% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1258. Deeper pull back could now be seen to 1026.9/1072 support zone, or even further to retest 1000 psychological level. But downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring up trend resumption.

In the long term picture, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.