By: CNBC.com
The S&P 500 index is likely to correct down to the low of 677 hit on March 5 2009, Bill McLaren, independent trader, said on Friday.But the decline will be interspersed with "counter-trend rallies" which usually last two to four trading days, he added. McLaren told CNBC he sees the broader index reaching 960 on March 1.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35253845
Week Ahead: Market Still Feels Sting of the Credit Crisis
By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor
Wall Street will keep a cautious eye on Europe in the week ahead, as the global credit crisis proved it still carries a potent sting for markets.Concerns about European sovereign debt started with Greece early in the past week and moved onto Portugal, Spain and other countries. By Thursday, a global sell off intensified, taking stocks and commodities lower. The dollar firmed, the euro fell, and investors fled to the relative safety of U.S. Treasurys.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35265314
Buy Stock Now to Ride Second Stage of Bull Market: John Dorfman
(Bloomberg) -- From Jan. 19 through Feb. 4, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, a decent gauge of the overall U.S. stock market, dropped about 8 percent. Among the reasons sparking the decline were President Barack Obama’s proposed tax on banks and a congressional deadlock on health-care legislation. Some stock-market pundits take the drop as a sign that the stock surge that began March 9, 2009, is over, or almost over.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPkRyJG9weGQ
China Stocks Far From ‘Real Bull Market,’ Morgan Stanley Says
(Bloomberg) -- China stocks are “distant from a real bull market” as funds under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors, or QDII, program saw net redemptions in the fourth quarter of 2009, Morgan Stanley said. “Net redemption lingered, suggesting that retail investors remain bearish in general, and therefore we are still far away from a real bull market,” Allen Gui and Jerry Lou, analysts at Morgan Stanley, said in a research report today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ac5yoZA._pCM
Expect Further 5% Correction, At Least: Strategist
The brutal sell-off on Wall Street on Thursday, which resulted in the Dow losing 4-percent so far year-to-date, could very well be the mythical correction we've been hearing about for months. As I mentioned in a CNBC commentary earlier this year, the market did seem to be getting a bit ahead of itself. It appears Europe's economic problems are finally getting under investors' skin - we now have an environment where Wall Street is reminded about 2008's financial meltdown, like a re-emerging bad memory. There were already brewing concerns about sovereign troubles in Europe; we now have facts and they don't look encouraging.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35250343
Dow 10,000, Fast Money's Correction Survival Guide
By: Lee Brodie Producer
Investors are bracing for a bumpy ride, after the Dow [.DJIA Loading... () ] briefly fell below the psychologically important 10,000 mark on Thursday before bouncing modestly at the close.But that bounce was little consequence for bulls. By the end of trading, stocks had suffered their worst losses in more than nine months after concerns about the debt of Greece and some other nations in Europe triggered widespread selling.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35238103
Indonesia May Raise Interest Rate by June as Inflation Quickens
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s central bank may raise interest rates by the end of June as inflation accelerates, after leaving borrowing costs at a record low this month to support economic growth. Bank Indonesia will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5 percent for a sixth straight month today, according to all 23 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The decision is due after noon in Jakarta. Twelve of 17 analysts surveyed expect the rate to increase by the end of June.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQ6WmMq4YNwg
Greenspan Says Unemployment Not Likely to Fall Soon
(Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said it is “very difficult” to see U.S. unemployment falling soon and that an economic recovery is “going to be a slow, trudging thing.” He also expressed concern about falling stock prices. While the recession is “essentially over,” Greenspan said “it’s very difficult to make the case that unemployment is coming down any time soon.” The former Fed chief spoke on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ahAoBr36HNGQ
Weekly Review Of The Dow, Shanghai Stock Exchange And Hang Seng
By Tradesman on February 7, 2010
Dow Jones
What a week for Dow Jones. The first 2 days of rise was accompanied by low volume and showed lack of strength in the index. The drop on Thursday (268 points ) and Friday ( 176 intraday loss ) has already confirmed the formation of a down channel as depicted in the chart below. Friday’s rebound in the last hour due to better than expected employment data in US, recovers the Dow Jones to positive territory. Nevertheless, the trend is down with clear channel formed and the region of 10192 - 10235 should form the resistance of the upper channel for any technical rebound. I would be more biased towards short positions.
6 Feb DJ
Shanghai Stock Exchange
The SSE did not manage to recover above 3000 point following last week’s drop and has been consolidating between 2918 and 3008. This zone seems to be the base for any technical rebounds. On Friday, SSE manage to barely hold around 2918 low point with a doji candlestick. On the mid term horizon, SSE will continue to undergo short selling pressures and the 200D MA around 3000 point will be the immediate resistance it would have to surmount to have a successful rebound.
6 Feb SSE
Hang Seng
The 600 pt drop on Friday brought Hang Seng to the base of a down trend channel that extends from the head of the head and shoulder formation. Any rebound would have to clear 20148 ( 200D MA ) and will meet with channel resistance at 20433.
Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Feb 06 10 04:14 ET
Crude oil's rebound from 72.43 was limited at 78.04 last week and fall from 83.95 then resumed by diving to as low as 69.50 before closing at 71.19. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper decline should now be seen to 100% projection of 83.95 to 72.43 from 78.04 at 66.52 next. On the upside, above 73.94 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 78.04 resistance and bring fall resumption. In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Feb 06 10 04:15 ET
Gold's fall resumed after recovery was limited at 1126.4 and has finally broke through 1075 support and reached as low as 1044.5 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further decline should be seen. Break of 100% projection of 1163 to 1074.4 from 1126.4 at 1037.8 next will target 1000 psychological level next. On the upside, above 1070.0 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 1126.4 resistance and bring fall resumption. In the bigger picture, gold has made a medium term top at 1227.5 and correction from there is likely still in progress to 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level. However, we'd expect such correction to be contained there at around 1000 psychological level and bring resumption of the whole up trend from 2008 low of 681. A break above 1126.4 resistance will indicate that such correction has completed and will turn outlook bullish for another high above 1227.5. However, note that sustained trading below 1000 will dampen our view and put 931.3 key structural support into focus. In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
Rubber May Drop as Strong Dollar, Prius Recall May Hurt Demand
(Bloomberg) -- Rubber, little changed in Asia, may decline as a strong dollar reduces the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment and a possible recall by Toyota Motor Corp. of its Prius cars may slow auto sales. Futures in Tokyo fluctuated after slumping 5.3 percent on Feb. 5, the biggest daily loss since Sept. 14. The commodity used in car tires has fallen 12 percent from this year’s peak of 306 yen per kilogram ($3,424 a metric ton) on Jan. 15.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aed9dbaUFqXw
Thai Stocks May Slide After ‘Double Top’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s SET Index may slide as much as 20 percent after twice failing to breach peaks in the past four months, according to Kasikorn Securities Co. A “double top” formation, or approximately equal peaks either side of a moderate trough, was a “dangerous indicator” in the medium term, the brokerage said in a report today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arHsNtlHStJo
‘Hungry Bears’ Halt Malaysian Stocks Rally: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Malaysia’s benchmark stock index may extend declines after sliding below the 100-day moving average, halting a rally that lasted almost a year, according to OSK Research Sdn. Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index slumped 1.4 percent to 1,247.90 on Feb. 5, the steepest decline since Aug. 17, and below the 100-day moving average of 1,258.17. Ten-day implied volatility on the stock index rose to 10.6 that day, the highest level since Aug. 27, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aiGXuPyhUjzs
Futures Traders Increase Bets Euro Will Decline to a Record
(Bloomberg) -- Futures traders increased bets to a record level that the euro will decline against the U.S. dollar on concern budget deficits in Greece and other European nations will hamper the region’s economic growth. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the euro compared with those on a gain, the net position, was 43,741 on on Feb. 2, compared with 39,539 a week earlier, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agUhfMPn3D3M
Aussie to Drop on Rates, RBC, Commonwealth Bank Say
(Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar may extend this week’s decline and drop to 82 U.S. cents by mid-year on prospects the central bank will raise interest rates at a slower pace than traders had anticipated, RBC Capital Markets said. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, 2009’s second-most accurate forecaster for the Australian dollar, lowered its expectations of gains in the currency, saying it may end this year at 85 cents after peaking at 88 cents in the second quarter. The so- called Aussie is the worst performer this week against the dollar and yen among its 16 most-traded counterparts after the central bank unexpectedly kept rates unchanged on Feb. 2.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=awfYlXby16YE
Copper Declines to Three-Month Low on Global-Economy Concerns
(Bloomberg) -- Copper dropped to a three-month low on concern that U.S. job losses and European budget gaps will stifle a global economic recovery. Zinc slid to the lowest price since October. U.S. payrolls shed 20,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said today. Analysts expected a gain. Global equities fell as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he has no plans to offer new steps to curb the nation’s budget deficit. Copper has dropped 16 percent in the four weeks since Jan. 8, while zinc is down 23 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ac.2JAwXs464
Roubini Sees Dollar Falling Versus Asian Currencies
(Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the credit crisis, expects the dollar to weaken against Asian and “commodity” currencies such as the Brazilian real over the next two or three years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDV9aUi1.h0Q
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