Welcome To The Club of 3.600-3.850 (01 - 12): A Limited Technical Rebound

IHSG diperkirakan masih akan sulit untuk bertahan dan menguat lebih lanjut pada hari ini, akibat minimnya isu positif dari dalam negeri menjelang rilisan inflasi Indonesia bulan November (perkiraan 0.5% m/m) yang mendukung BI untuk mempertahankan suku bunga di akhir pekan ini (6.5%), kekhawatiran terhadap meluasnya krisis finansial dari Irlandia ke negara Eropa lainnya (Portugal & Spanyol), data ekonomi Jepang kembali terpuruk (pengangguran & industri), kekhawatiran terhadap kenaikan suku bunga China di bulan Desember (berdasarkan survei Bloomberg) hingga spekulasi lebih rendah dari perkiraan kinerja BUMI Resources Q3 dalam waktu dekat ini, menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditas. Meski secara technical, penurunan IHSG masih dalam coverage corrective C di tengah kondisi oversold dan bertahan diatas 3.500 (meski 3.532 support ditembus kemarin), lebih baik data PMI China dan GDP Q3 Australia seharusnya memberikan momentum technical rebound jika dapat bertahan diatas 3.565. IHSG diperkirakan dalam kisaran 3.500-3.565.  

Bakrie Sumatera, Bumi, Bukit, Timah: Indonesia Equity Preview
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ): Nine-month net income at Indonesia’s biggest coal producer fell to $195.6 million from $310.6 million the same period a year earlier, it said in a statement posted on the Indonesia stock exchange website. Bumi plunged 11 percent to 2,650 rupiah.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ags8_eBg5IAw

Rothschild Plays His Strongest Suit With $3 Billion Mining Deal
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPQusn5hvhcw

Indonesia’s Stocks Drop Most in 4 Months on Bumi, Europe Woes
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arFzZAHjBKVs


Buy on weakness: KRAS & APLN. Sell on rally: BJBR/BMRI/BBCA/BDMN/BTPN/BBRI/BNLI/BNGA), Buy on weakness ASII, UNTR, AALI), telekomunikasi (Sell on rally: TLKM, EXCL, TBIG, TOWR), infrastruktur (Buy: ADHI, PTPP, WIKA), komoditas (Buy : PGAS/TINS/ANTM/INCO/JPRS/GDST/NIKL),  Buy: LSIP/SGRO/BWPT), Coal (Buy; ITMG/PTBA/BYAN/ADRO/DOID), Sell on rally  BUMI, BNBR - Sell on rally: UNSP, ELTY, DEWA, ENRG, Buy on weakness BRAU. konsumer: Trading Buy LPKR/BSDE/ICBP/INDF/UNVR,  Buy on weakness : SMGR/INTP/BLTA/NIKL/MLPL//HRUM/PTBA/BWPT/MAIN/BNII/SMCB/SMRA/ASRI/AKRA/MPPA/KLBF/HMSP/CPIN/JPFA/GJTL.

Saksikan Dealing Room saham pilihan Kamis (18/11): 14.00-15.00 WIB  & Movers & Shakers (19/11) Jam 19.00 - 20.00 WIB di Channel 95 MNC Bisnis (Indovision)

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07). 

Indeks berpeluang menguat ke target 3.150 (target GSM di Q3 2010, tercapai 26/08) dan 3.400 (target GSM akhir tahun; direvisi menjadi 3.850 dari 3.550; jika tembus ke target 4.040. Analisa EW/Gann/Fibonacci).

BNI SECURITIES DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 01-12 (BUMI-MIDI-BSDE-BDMN) 

Technical Chart Saham CTA: Hold BUY (09/11) SMCB (2.525).(19/11): AALI (24.000/24.400)/DOID (1.090)/ITMG (49.450)/CNKO (153)/BRAU (510).(22/11): PBRX (1.270-1.330)/ MEDC (3.600)/ADRO (2.450). (23/11): HEXA (7100)/MASA (320)/JSMR (3.500). (24/11) KRAS (1220)/BJBR (1520-1540)/BNII (650).

From Chat Roll:  

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07). 

Nov 10 2010, 3:55 PM. @KRAS: Buy 1.250 done. Hold target 1340 (tercapai)/1420 (tercapai)/1670. Risk dibawah 1.100

08/11: Hold Buy BUVA (570/580) target 660/750/940/1050, selama ditutup diatas area 470/540 (Stop loss Done)

(22/10): 3 Metals: http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/trio-metals-upgrade-targets.html
 
Oct 21 2010, 9:40 AMAndri (guest): @MYOR: Buy 11.150 setelah breakout 11.100 target 13.400 stop loss dibawah 9700. (Reach Target Profit)

Oct 21 2010, 9:25 AMAndri (guest): @PTPP: Hold buy on breakout resist line 930 target 1.200 stop loss 880 (Stop loss done).

Oct 21 2010, 11:18 AMAndri (guest): @BTEK: wave koreksi 4 telah berakhir, jika breakout 485, Buy: 420-430 risk 350, target 485 - 620 (tercapai)/700 (3)/920 (long term).

Oct 20 2010, 2:32 PM: (Closed on 22/10): Buy on weakness (20/10-10.30 Wib): Hold TLKM (9.100), JPFA (3.400), CPIN (8.250), INDF (4.900), PGAS (4.100), BUMI (2.275), MNCN (560), SOBI (3.050), BHIT (128). Buy LPKR 580, BSDE 890 target Profit Taking Jumat (22/10), risk 5%.

Sep 2 2010, 4:07 PM Gallery Saham Mania 
HOLD BUY (liat chat roll): MASA: Buy breakout Fibo (23/09) at 380 target 440/500/MEDC: Buy (22/09) 3.150 target 3.400 (tercapai)/4.400 stop loss dibawah 2950/Buy ASII (21/09) 55.600 target 63.000/80.000/@ENRG Buy Breakout 125 (22/09) target 190/Buy (21/09) BWPT @910 target 1.030 (tercapai)-1.250/ ELSA @345 target 370-420/BUMI @1.960 (20/09) target 2.150 (tercapai)/2.350 (tercapai)/ CPIN @6.900 (15/09) target 10.350/ PGAS @ 3.950-4.000 (15/09) target 4.700/5.800/INDF @5.100 (15/09) 6.050-7.350/INCO @4.475 (15/09) target 5.300/6.500 (Upgrade)/BRAU (19/08) @420 & 455 tgt 485-500 (Tercapai)/JPFA @2.225 (A) tgt 3.000-3.500 (tercapai)/SOBI @2.325 tgt 2.750-3.200 (tercapai)/BLTA @240 tgt 265-280 (tercapai)/UNVR @16900 tgt 18.500/GJTL @1.760 tgt 2300 (Tercapai)/RALS @840 tgt 1050-1400/MAPI @1130 tgt 1625 (tercapai)-2285/BBKP @730 tgt 850-930/TPIA @2600 (-10%)/MYOR @8200 tgt 10.800 (tercapai)/BNGA @1260 tgt 1340 (Tercapai)-1.560/JSMR @2.925 tgt 3.325 (Tercapai)/BUMI @1.655 (A) tgt 1.780-1.840 (tercapai)/ADRO @1.825 (A) tgt 1.940 (tercapai). Stop loss < -7%.

Check out my blog (Gallery Saham Mania): globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com