News_Letter
The analysis of April 26th concluded that the Dow is targeting a high of 8,750 by mid May 2009 which was expected to be followed by a significant correction of 14% towards a Dow target of 7,500. The Dow hit the target on 2nd of June which was confirmed in the quick update at the time, and therefore expectations were for the significant correction to materialise.Quick Technical Analysis - The Dow spent early June distributing along 8,800, which gave plenty of time to put on short positions with tight stops. The key chart trigger was the lower high at 8,600 which targeted a break of 8,200. The pattern size is 400 points which projects to 7,800 before the next expected bounce. The overall pattern size is about 650 which projects to 8,200 minus 650 = 7,550, which is pretty close to the original projection of April 26th for the target for the Correction AFTER the peak around 8,750. The chart is also showing an head and shoulders price pattern witch the same measuring move.
Stocks Stealth Bull Market End Probability - The probability of an end to this fledgling bull market remains very low at less than 20%, as the Dow has so far done nothing to suggest otherwise with the trend to date inline with expectations for that of a significant summer correction. The quality of the stocks bull market for the balance of the year will become clearer as the current correction unravels towards 7,500, which will enable me to generate an in depth analysis for the next 3 months or so, however existing analysis is for a 50% rally which targets Dow 9,705.
Conclusion - The Dow is still projecting towards a target of around 7,500 as indicated in the chart above, which I am sure will be taken by the perma-bears as proof that the whole move from March was just a bear market rally, JUST AT THE POINT WHERE I EXPECT THE STOCKS STEALTH BULL MARKET TO RESUME!.
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