(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks may climb a further 23 percent to 450 by the end of the year amid signs of a stronger- than-expected economic recovery, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said. JPMorgan also raised India’s equity market to “overweight” from “neutral” amid political stability and stepped-up economic reforms, analysts led by Adrian Mowat said in an Aug. 6 report. Investors should own more shares than indicated by benchmark indexes in Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand, with exporters among the best bets, they added. The MSCI AC Asia-Pacific excluding Japan Index rose 0.8 percent to 365.45 yesterday, taking its gains this year to 48 percent. JPMorgan’s forecast represents an 82 percent advance in the measure for the full year, which would be its best annual gain on record.
“Economic activity in a number of countries is close to or at its peak,” the analysts wrote. “Real GDP for Asia ex-Japan, Indonesia, China, Australia and India is forecast to be higher in the second quarter of 2009 than any of the previous quarters. However, their markets are more than 20 percent below their peaks.”Mowat, the brokerage’s chief Asian and emerging-market strategist, had predicted in June that the MSCI regional index would climb to 400 this year.
India’s Growth
Indian stocks may benefit as low interest rates and inflation spur economic growth, JPMorgan said. The Reserve Bank of India last week left borrowing costs unchanged at record lows, after slashing interest rates six times since October.Inflation has slowed from a 16-year high of 12.91 percent in August last year as oil prices fell. India’s benchmark wholesale-price index fell for an eighth week, declining 1.58 percent in the week to July 25 from a year earlier, the government said yesterday.
The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index has climbed 61 percent this year, the eighth-best gain among 89 indexes tracked by Bloomberg globally.
“India is a current account deficit economy and needs to import capital to keep growing quickly,” the analysts wrote. “The credit crunch in our view is over. Low external interest rates combined with low levels for the Indian rupee should accelerate capital inflows and growth subsequently.”The brokerage added Tata Motors Ltd., the Indian truckmaker that owns Jaguar Land Rover, and Infrastructure Development Finance Co., a financier of roads, ports and utilities, to its list of recommended stocks in India.Acer Inc., the world’s third-largest maker of personal computers, and Korean Air Lines Co. were also among companies that JPMorgan added to its recommended portfolio, the report said.
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