Stock-Markets
January 2009 I thought I’d see if "market-long-wave" theory (which I previously only used for real estate), works for the US stock market. Now that the Bears seem to have almost completely disappeared and the S&P 500 is flirting with 1,000 I thought I’d have a look and see how it did:
Looks like it works...new paradigm perhaps?
Notes on Scoring:
The one mistake with market-long-waves was in January when I misread the wave periodicity, I corrected that in February, so I'll count that as half (6.5 ÷ 7 = 92% right).Warren Buffet's call for 900 in February was correct in principle, but in the long term (after five months), and there was a 25% drop in-between; so I'll give him half; Professor Roubini was 100% wrong about the dead-cat-bounce; so that's (1.5 ÷ 2 = 75% wrong).
No comments:
Post a Comment