Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Aug 20 09 05:47 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil rebounded further to as high as 72.80 so far. As discussed before, the three wave structure of the fall from 72.84 to 65.23 argues that it's merely a correction in the rise from 58.32 only. Break of 72.84 resistance will indicate that crude oil's rally is still in progress for another high above 73.36. On the downside, below 68.04 will flip intraday bias back to the downside and break of 65.23 will revive the bearish case that crude oil has topped out at 73.36 already and will bring decline to 62.70 support first and then 58.32 key level.
In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rebound from 65.23 dampens the view that rise from 58.32 has completed. Further rise could be seen to above 73.36. But still, since such rally from 33.2 is treated as correction to whole fall from 147.27, strong resistance is expected to be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, below 65.23 support will revive the case that crude oil has topped already and will turn focus back to 58.32 support for confirmation.
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