Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
The strong rebound from 65.23 and break of 68.94 resistance mixes up the short term outlook in crude oil. The noticeable three wave structure of the fall from 72.84 to 65.23 argues that it's possibly merely a correction to rise from 58.32 only. We're stay neutral for the moment as long as crude oil stay inside range of 65.23/72.84. On the downside, below 65.23 will revive the bearish case that crude oil has topped out at 73.36 already and will bring decline to 62.70 support first and then 58.32 key level. On the upside, however, above 72.84 will argue that crude oil's rally is still in progress for another high above 73.36.
In the bigger picture, with daily MACD crossed below signal line, rise from 58.32 has possibly completed already. The development puts focus back to medium term trend line support at 64.10. Decisive break there will revive the case that whole rebound from 33.2 has completed at 73.36 already and will turn focus back to 58.32 support for confirmation. Break there will open up the possibility of deep decline to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, above 73.36 will in turn indicates that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal finally.
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