0517 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares by midday up 0.6% at 2672.203 in moderate volume, led by foreign buying in most resources- and consumer-related stocks amid hopes for higher 2009 dividend and strong 1Q earnings; resistance at 2680. "Overall sentiment, however, looks cautious because of falls in several Asian markets," says trader at Reliance Securities. Among gainers, consumer goods producer Unilever (UNVR.JK) +8.4% at IDR12,900, gas distributor Gas Negara (PGAS.JK) +3.3% at IDR3,925. Profit taking weighs bellwether Telkom (TLKM.JK) down 1.1% at IDR8,650.
0424 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei stays in tight range in early afternoon, now off 0.10% at 10557.58. Traders generally don't expect to see much selling pressure related to March futures settlement Friday morning; Mizuho Investors Securities trading information manager Teruhisa Ishikawa says good strategy is to buy on dips and take profits in 10,600-10,700 band before market has better chance for sustainable rebound with possible improvement in economic, corporate earnings outlooks. "The basic trend of rangebound trading around the 10,500 level is unlikely to change through late April so all one can do for now is bargain-hunt and take profits at 10,600 to 10,700," Ishikawa says. 24/33 Topix subindexes remain lower, with shippers (down 1.3%), oil & coal producers (down 1.2%) underperforming. Nisshin Steel (5407.TO) trims morning gains on news of Nikkei 225 inclusion; now up 6.3% at Y185. Fujitsu (6702.TO) up 1.1% after 2 days of heavy selling, following TSE's verbal warning in relation to its disclosure policy.
0446 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI's intraday band 177 points Monday, 149 point yesterday, 137 points so far today, largely in consolidation mode but once such narrow band breached, could be big rally or fall ahead, but bias appears on upside with HSI +0.04% at 21,215.50 midday, extending winning steak to 4th session. SHK Financial says technically, HSI stayed above 50-day moving average (currently 20,940) for 3rd straight day; if ends today above this level, "could confirm a breakthrough and a further rise." Adds, HKD remains strong, indicating funds inflow, positive for market also. Despite HSI near flat, China plays strong: Citic Pacific (0267.HK) +4.1% at HK$18.38, best performing index member, ahead of FY results expected lunch time; Tencent (0700.HK), Cnooc (0883.HK), China Resources Land (1109.HK), Ping An (2318.HK) each up at least 1% - all outperforming. Market volume unexciting at HK$30.66 billion.
0501 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi flat at 1660.07 in light volume as investors sidelined before release of inflation data from China, expiration of options, futures tomorrow, says Lee Kyoung-min at Woori Investment & Securities; Still, "foreigners maintain their buying spree for seven straight days and are buying broadly across the market, indicating their positive view for Korean stocks amid easing concerns over various external risks." Expects Kospi to sustain resilient moves by rising step-by-step before new cycle of uptrend sets in. Kospi likely to drift around current level rest today. Recent gainers, steelmakers, telecom stocks, weak on profit taking; Posco (005490.SE) down 1.6% at KRW556,000, SK Telecom (017670.SE) down 1.4% at KRW178,500. But shipyards still up on turnaround hopes with Daewoo Shipbuilding (042660.SE) +1.9% at KRW21,800. SK Energy (096770.SE) +2.2% at KRW118,000 on expectations for refining margin recovery this year, say analysts.
0524 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold at $1,124.10/oz, up $1.90 vs NY close. Gold drifting higher in thin liquidity, continues bounce higher from overnight selloff on knee-jerk reaction to China official comments that gold has limited benefits as a forex diversifier for China. Gold briefly fall below $1,110, before bouncing back to little changed levels overnight. "Gold was tested on the downside but showed resilience," says RBS head of precious metal Charles Dowsett. Sovereign debt issues in euro zone to remain focus for coming months, to produce volatile trading patterns in gold while trading interest in Asia limited for now. "We need to break the resistance at $1,150 to really get going again," he says.
0222 GMT [Dow Jones] Expectations for Fed rate hike this year are "delusional," says Standard Chartered; "our base case remains that the Fed will not hike its Fed Funds Target Rate - whatever it does on the emergency discount rate - until 3Q 2011." Though market still expecting total of 64.6 bps of Fed rate hikes over next 12 months, house says such expectations are "overdone and will decline."
0439 GMT [Dow Jones] China February iron ore, copper import trade data surprises on the upside, imports rise on the month on both counts; this surprising given February's week-long Lunar New Year holiday, February shorter month than others. "This is going to create further tailwind for iron ore price talks," says ANZ senior commodity strategist Mark Pervan, who forecasts iron ore prices to rise 70% on year. Copper imports up 10% on month at 322,282 tons, iron ore imports up 5.9% on month at 49.38 million tons. "For copper, this data highlights the underswell of stimulus spending that is continuing to roll out," says Pervan. LME 3-month copper up $44 vs PM kerb at $7,554/ton.
0358 GMT [Dow Jones] International Rubber Consortium, cartel of world's three largest natural rubber exporters -- Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia -- has asked Vietnam to join their club. IRCo already produces 75% of the world's natural rubber, but without Vietnam's rubber plantations the group lacks clout. This became evident as rubber prices plunged to five year low in 2008. IRCo's response, to reduce exports by 700,000 metric tons was undercut by Vietnam's producers, which actually boosted output last year. Soon, it may surpass India, Malaysia to become the world's No. 3 producer. Better coordination with Vietnam to turn the rubber tap off means cheap natural rubber may become a thing of the past.
Nickel’s ‘Roll Over’ Signals More Declines: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Nickel’s “momentum roll over” after prices fell from a 20-month high last week signals further declines, according to technical analysis by Barclays Capital.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHCOc6WxAOOA
SMI to Continue Climb Above 200-Day Average: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Swiss Market Index, which has outperformed most developed markets this year, may continue to rise as it holds above its 200-day moving average, according to Zuercher Kantonalbank.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akejs4T6Rsrg
S&P 500 May Extend Gain, Sentiment Shows: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may surpass this year’s January high because market momentum picked up without turning investors overly bullish, according to Robert W. Baird & Co.’s chief investment strategist Bruce Bittles.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTBuReLRcgz0
Dollar May Rally to 95 Yen on Yield Advance: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may rally to 95 yen, a level last reached in August, if the U.S. two-year yield rises beyond the high end of its range since the middle of January, according to Citigroup Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ahYYFMLbjGj0
Emerging-Market Stocks May Retreat 15%, Aberdeen Says
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks will drop as much as 15 percent this year as earnings miss estimates and global growth slows, said Devan Kaloo, who oversees $22 billion at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aREdmNp.l8sM
Banks Show ‘Solid Support’ for Equity Gains: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The KBW Bank Index’s rally last week to its highest closing level in 2010 removed a “major psychological barrier” which may pave the way for further stock gains, according to a Mint Equities Ltd. technical strategist.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ar8dxuW9eiUA
Biggs Says U.S. Stocks May Rise 10% in Next Few Months: Video
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=amiI2cdfx784
S&P 500 May Extend Gain, Sentiment Shows: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may surpass this year’s January high because market momentum picked up without turning investors overly bullish, according to Robert W. Baird & Co.’s chief investment strategist Bruce Bittles.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTBuReLRcgz0
Palm Oil May Surge on El Nino, Mistry, Prudential Say
(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil may surge this year as drier-than-usual weather caused by El Nino curbs yields in the biggest producers, according to forecasts from Godrej International Ltd. and Prudential Bache Commodities LLC. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agb89SIOFL9c
Hedge-Fund Losses Show Euro’s Drop Fails to Benefit All Traders (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds that trade currencies are taking hits from politicians casting them as speculators out to sink the euro and push Greece into insolvency. They are also losing money.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0bgog9.3rQU&pos=7
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