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Ekonomi & Pasar Finansial AS Kian Memburuk, Komoditi Rebound

Data non farm payroll AS bulan Februari tercatat -651k (sesuai perkiraan pasar) dari revisi -655k di Januari, unemployment melonjak ke 8.1% dari 7.6% di Januari, berarti AS telah kehilangan 2.6jt tenaga kerja dlm 4 bulan terakhir, terburuk sejak tahun 1983, dukung perkiraan pertumbuhan AS Q1 09 perkiraan -5.9% (-6.2% y/y di Q4 08). 10-yr treasury bond menguat 2.88% pekan ini. Wall Street melemah 7% pekan ini (Djia -20% ytd), telah kehilangan nilai $ 10triliun, DJIA ditutup diatas 6,600 pekan ini, potensi rebound k 7k-7.4k, sblm k 6k-5,684 di Q2. Dolar diperkirakan melanjutkan penguatan terhadap euro,yen,pound,rupiah pada pekan dpn, karena investor risk averse switch ke safe haven dolar AS. Harga minyak ditutup diatas $45 (breakout Trendline) tgt $50/55, emas potensi rebound k $1k tgt $1,200 bahkan mungkin $ 1,500 di H2 09,support $900.

Gold Oversold

Gold fell for the eight straight session yesterday to have the longest losing streak since June 2006 (silver broke its losing streak). Gold is clearly oversold in the short term and due a bounce. The question is whether the bounce will lead to another challenge of resistance at $1,000/oz sooner than most expect or whether the bounce is a prelude to further weakness which could see gold fall to as low as support between $850/oz and $880/oz.

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China's Economy Recovers as Stock Markets Turn Bullish

China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) strengthened for a third consecutive month in February, climbing to 49.0% from 45.3% the previous month. Li & Fung Research Centre reports that there were some encouraging signs: all sub-indices were higher than their respective levels in the previous month though many were still lower than the critical level of 50% (i.e. still contracting).

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Forecasting the Anatomy of the Stocks Bear Market Bottom

Financial forecasts, whether they are fundamentally or technically driven, are a combination of probabilities and assumptions. For example, when an analyst indicates that the earnings for a company are expected to increase during the next quarter and the business is now trading below its intrinsic value, he is suggesting that the probability of a number of issues should positively affect the near-term earnings outlook for this organization.

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Bank of England Ignites Quantitative Inflation

Economic Shock and Awe as Interest Rates are cut to 0.5% coupled with £75 Billion conjured out of thin air by Mervyn King Waving his "Central Bank Magic Wand". The government through what should be more accurately termed as "Quantitative Inflation" than "Quantative Easing" sanctioned £75 billion in the initial print run which will have a multiplier effect through fractional reserve banking and leverage of anywhere from between X10 to X20 the amount depending on how it filters through the economy.....

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Financial and Economic Crisis Entering the Panic Phase

A couple of bright friends reported to me some overriding themes at the PDAC gathering in Toronto last weekend. Apparently, some surprise came to them. They mentioned that more than a few analysts, writers, and speakers still do not get it. They actually believe the situation with the US Economy and US banking system has begun to stabilize. That is like saying a college basketball player has Michael Jordan under control, or a farmer has his Clydesdale horse under control, or a misguided King can call back the ocean tide, or a man has a hurricane under control as he clings to a roof rafter.

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Euro Melemah Setelah Pertumbuhan Euro Didowngrade

Euro melemah terhadap dolar setelah bank sentral Eropa menurunkan prediksi pertumbuhan 2009, memicu spekulasi bank sentral akan menurunkan suku bunga lanjutan setelah memangkas suku bunga 50 bsp pada hari Kamis. Meski data jobless claims AS meningkat ke 636,000, factory order AS bulan Januari -1.9%.

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Rupiah Tertahan Berkat Spekulasi Intervensi BI

Rupiah mengkoreksi pelemahannya berkat spekulasi bank sentral telah melakukan intervensi untuk mensupport rupiah. Obligasi pemerintah menguat, sementara saham lokal terkoreksi turun.

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Barclays - Commodity Prices Bottoming Out, Recovery Due

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity prices, including oil, have started to bottom out and are likely to rise in the second quarter, supported by signs China’s economic stimulus plan has taken effect, investment bank Barclays Capital forecast today.

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Japan Stocks Rise on Weaker Yen, Hong Kong Slips

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks gained as the yen’s depreciation and higher maritime-transport fees brightened the earnings prospects for automakers and shipping companies.

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Morgan Stanley - Global Quantitative Easing 2

The RMS Queen Elizabeth was the largest passenger ship ever built when she first set sail in 1938 – a record that was not bettered for 56 years. RMS Queen Elizabeth 2 took over as the flagship when the Queen Elizabeth was retired in 1968. The record of another QE, the quantitative easing in Japan in 2001–06, may not hold quite as long. The new QE2 – the second coming of quantitative easing – has been upon us since September 2008.

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US Stocks Bear Market Rally Slows The Bleeding

The bulls (and the shorts covering their positions) finally made a showing on Wall Street today. CNBC says that the reason for the bounce is that the Obama Administration announced its plan to provide relief to homeowners in distress as well as a stimulus plan being announced in China. That might not have hurt matters, but the real reason for the rally is that the market was extremely oversold. A positive day was bound to happen sooner rather than later.

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Gold Continues to Correct From $1000

Gold fell for the seventh straight day yesterday and is now down nearly 9% from its recent high just above $1,000/oz - see chart below). Gold had become overbought in the short term and had risen over 24% in just over a month ($806/oz on January 14th to over $1,000/oz on February 20th ). Thus, this correction was necessary and healthy and even after this correction gold remains up 4% in USD (and much more in GBP +7.6% and EUR +15.6%) in 2009.

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Yen Melemah Berkat Suramnya Pandangan Ekonomi

Yen melemah melampaui 99 per dolar untuk pertama kali dalam 4 bulan terakhir karena pasar saham Asia menguat dan berkat stimulus tambahan China yang menurunkan permintaan untuk mata uang sebagai pelarian dari bencana financial.

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BI Memangkas Suku Bunga Menjadi 7.75%, Rupiah Melemah

Bank sentral Indonesia memangkas suku bunga benchmark ke level terendah hampir 4 tahun, menekankan “resiko penurunan yang besar” kepada prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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Abare: Australian Commodity Outlook March 2009

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Technical Analysis : The Moving Averages Based Stock Feeder Pond Trading Technical Tool

A powerful use of the Moving Average concept ... Most investors use Moving Averages on their charts ... like the 20 day, 50 day, 100 day, and 200 day moving average. As indicators they lag behind movement, which is why many like to use an Exponential Moving Average over a Simple Moving Average.

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Moment of Truth for Crude Oil Prices

The moment of truth for nearby crude oil prices, as they press against the 20 Day MA at 39.29, which also represents the mid-point of the Bollinger Bands-- and usually supports the price structure on a pullback IF (and only IF) the dominant trend direction is UP. Right now, the technical work shows a possible upside reversal off of the 2/12 low at $33.55, which climbed to 45.30 on 2/26 prior to turning lower.

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Jim Rogers: U.S. stocks have yet to hit bottom

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, the investor who had co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, on Tuesday said U.S. stocks have yet to hit their bottom in this bear market, saying there could be no lasting rally until the economy recovers.

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Potensi Kenaikan IHSG Terbatas, Karena Rapuhnya Keyakinan Investor

IHSG ditutup menguat tipis pada hari Selasa, tidak mengubah pandangan dan teknikal yang negative, terutama melihat kejatuhan indeks saham DJIA ke level terendah 12-tahun di bawah level psikologis 7,000 yang dapat mengarah ke 6,600 bahkan 6,000 untuk jangka menengah dan minimnya sentiment positif dari ekonomi dalam negeri.

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Rupiah Menguat Berkat Spekulasi Penurunan Suku Bunga BI

Rupiah Indonesia menguat, memutarbalikkan pelemahan, berkat spekulasi investor yang melihat pelemahan rupiah telah berlebihan, karena aksi bank sentral untuk mensupport mata uang rupiah. Obligasi 3-tahun pemerintah ikut menguat.

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Keputusan RBA Australia Picu Profit Taking Long Dolar AS

Yen melemah terhadap hamper semua mata uang utama karena bank sentral Australia (RBA) secara mengejutkan mempertahankan suku bunga pinjaman target untuk pertama kali dalam 7 bulan terakhir, meningkatkan permintaan untuk asset yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi.

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Could Obama Push Crude Oil to $300 Per Barrel

John Maynard Keynes is one of the most influential and controversial economists in history. He warned of the huge burden war reparations placed on Germany and its allies after WW I. He played an integral role in establishing the post-WW II financial world. His economic theories established the impetus for governments to spend like mad during downturns. He made, lost, and made back a massive fortune in the stock market. He counted Pablo Picasso and Virginia Wolf as friends.

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Morgan Stanley - Singapore & Malaysia GDP

What’s New?
Actual 4Q08 GDP data were released yesterday. This is backward-looking data, and market participants are already aware of the slew of extremely weak GDP growth data coming out from the region. However, we want to highlight a few points regarding the data.

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Faktor Teknikal Dan Sentimen Jatuhkan IHSG

Isu negative dari kondisi perbankan di AS dan Eropa (AIG & HSBC), mendorong jatuhnya indeks saham regional diikuti anjloknya harga komoditi yang merontokkan saham unggulan di sejumlah negara termasuk IHSG.

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Laporan AIG Angkat Dolar AS Ke Level Tertinggi Sejak April 2006

Dolar menguat ke level tertinggi sejak April 2006 terhadap 6 mata uang utama partner perdagangan AS karena investor melakukan risk averse setelah American International Group mendapatkan kembali bantuan dari pemerintah AS.

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Ekspor Indonesia anjlok ke level terburuk 22 tahun, inflasi melambat

Ekspor Indonesia merosot ke level terburuk dalam lebih dari 22 tahun di bulan Januari dan inflasi melambat di bulan Februari, meningkatkan peluang untuk bank sentral Indonesia menurunkan suku bunga benchmark di pekan ini.

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Crude Oil Teetering Bull Markets

Strike It Rich with Crude Oil
Crude oil made some positive progress last week, as the price climbed up and over $44 per barrel. This move higher has provided several technical trading signals, which will help get investors into this slippery investment.

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Super Over Sold Stock Market That Still Refuses to Rally

Battle-weary investors remained skeptical of a banking quick fix and endured more grim economic fodder during the past week, causing US stocks to hit their lowest level since 1997. After the worst January (-8.8%) on record, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed February (-11.7%) in the third worst position, after 1933 (-15.6%) and 1920 (-12.5%).

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Fokus Pekan Ini (02 -06 Maret 2009).

Data Payroll Terburuk Dalam 60 Tahun Terakhir, Perkiraan Suku Bunga ECB & BOE.

Resesi masih membebani bisnis dan konsumen AS di bulan Februari, menurut ekonom, yang memprediksikan hilangnya pekerjaan terbesar bulanan dalam hampir 60 tahun terakhir.

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Kalender Ekonomi & Event 02 – 07 Maret 2009

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Warren Buffet's View on Economy 2009 & A Letter to Shareholders

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Elliot Wave US Dollar Bull Market 2009 Update

Prevailing bearishness continues against the U.S. Dollar amidst a near infinite reasons of why the Dollar is doomed. But as an active experienced trader, one thing you soon painfully learn is that the fundamentals don't count when it comes trend reversals, as by the time the reasons have become apparent the market has already moved by as much as 50% and even then there exists the continuing dilemma of the trend versus the fundamental views based on hard data. However as I have discussed several times with would be traders in that your trading the price not the indicator or data. The bottom line is that what the price says is that which only 'should' count.

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Elliot Wave U.S. Treasury Bond Market Forecast 2009

The explosive long T-bond rally of November and December 2008 following deep U.S. interest rate cuts towards ZERO appears to have come to an end as treasury bonds broke below the most recent low. Therefore this analysis seeks to determine if the bond bubble is about to burst and how bonds could trend during the next 5 months of 2009.

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