(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may climb another 28 percent within six months as the “smart money” piles back into equities, building on the steepest rally since the 1930s, said Don Hays, founder of Hays Advisory Group. Trading in options on the S&P 100 Index and buying and selling by company insiders show that the most-informed investors turned more bullish in the past month, according to Hays, who began using sentiment indicators to predict the market’s direction in 1969.
“I’m very encouraged and believe we may see a breakout in the next two weeks on the upside,” Hays said in an interview. The S&P 500, which closed trading at 940.74 yesterday, will probably surpass 1,200 within six months, he said.The S&P 500 surged 40 percent between March 9 and June 12, the most since the Great Depression, on optimism the deepest recession in a half century may be ending. It fell 38 percent last year after Bear Stearns Cos. sold itself to JPMorgan Chase & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed a record bankruptcy and the government took over American International Group Inc.
The S&P 500 climbing above 950 on heavy volume would suggest that the bear market ended when the index hit a 12-year low on March 9, Hays said.The 950 level is important because it is the approximate top end of a chart pattern that the S&P 500 began to form in October, Hays said. Hays, a technical analyst, makes predictions based on price and volume data.
Head, Shoulders
The inverse head-and-shoulders pattern consists of a decline to 741.02 on Nov. 21, followed by a rebound to 943.85 on Jan. 6 to form the left shoulder. A subsequent drop to an intraday low of 666.79 on March 6 followed by a rebound to 956.23 on June 11 formed the pattern’s head. The index then declined to 869.32 on July 8 to form the right shoulder. While it’s smaller than the left, recent trends in trading volume and the number of stocks falling to 52-week lows are also typical of a pattern that’s marked the end of other bear markets, Hays said.
The highest-volume days on the New York Stock Exchange in the past year were Sept. 19 and Oct. 10, as stocks made their first steep drop, and March 20, as they rebounded from the pattern’s lowest point. The number of stocks making new lows peaked Oct. 10, and also jumped on Nov. 20 and March 6, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.“It’s a very common thing at the end of bear markets that you’ll have a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern that calls the bottom,” Hays said.His expectation that the index will surpass 1,200 is based on the magnitude of the rebound from the March 6 intraday low to the 950 level, an increase of 284 points. Historically, that distance is “a very good predictor of the magnitude of the rally once it breaks out of the shoulder level,” he said.
Friday, July 17, 2009
The Credit Rally to Continue; Technical. Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The credit rally that has pushed company bonds up 6.4 percent in Europe since the end of January may flounder because it’s reaching a resistance level, a technical indicator shows. The Markit iBoxx Coorate Non-Financials index is at the halfway point between the high reached in February 1999 and the low in November last year. The 50 percent mark is a resistance level in a Fibonacci analysis and failure to break through signals the gauge may fall.“This is a very strong retracement,” said Mark Sturdy, a technical analyst at London-based research firm Seven Days Ahead. “I’d be amazed if it goes through without considerable resistance.”
Technical analysts look at price charts to forecast resistance levels, or ceilings restricting further price increases, and support levels, or floors limiting declines.
Fibonacci analysts use a system pioneered by 13th century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, known to his friends as Fibonacci, who discerned ratios from proportions found in nature. The analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low.
Technical analysts look at price charts to forecast resistance levels, or ceilings restricting further price increases, and support levels, or floors limiting declines.
Fibonacci analysts use a system pioneered by 13th century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, known to his friends as Fibonacci, who discerned ratios from proportions found in nature. The analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low.
Hasil Prediksi Saham (Periode 13 - 17 Juli 2009)
Track Record (BLOG & UBI Newsletter):
Hasil Prediksi Pekan Ini: By TA (60%) - FS (25%) - FA (15%) (13-17 Juli) average 16 saham : +9.35%. Periode 17 Juni - 17 Juli = 22% (average 3 minggu) +9.35% - 0.519% = 30.831% (Exc Commision + etc). Check out my blog: globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com. Wait for my new signal TA. Have a nice long weekend guys, see you all on new recommendation by Tuesday (21/07). May Allah SWT be with u always. Good Luck.
Prediksi tidak sesuai harapan (Return: -0.519% dari 22 saham). Hasil rekomendasi kemarin: BUMI (-3.0%),DEWA (-2.5%%),UNSP (-1.4%),ELTY (-1.6%),META (+0.8%),UNTR (+1.4%),INCO (0%),PTBA (-0.88%),ANTM (+2.5%),LSIP (0%),BDMN (-2.0%),BBRI (-1.4%),BMRI (+2.2%),BBCA (-2.6%),ASII (-1.65%),SMCB (-1.53%),SMGR (+0.92%),TRUB (-1.78%),ASIA (+5.7%),PGAS (-1.48%),BMTR (-1.3%),MNCN (-5.2%). Total : -11.42% : 22 = -0.519%.
Liat rekomendasi update di Facebook: a_zakarias@yahoo.com (add me).
Hasil Prediksi Pekan Ini: By TA (60%) - FS (25%) - FA (15%) (13-17 Juli) average 16 saham : +9.35%. Periode 17 Juni - 17 Juli = 22% (average 3 minggu) +9.35% - 0.519% = 30.831% (Exc Commision + etc). Check out my blog: globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com. Wait for my new signal TA. Have a nice long weekend guys, see you all on new recommendation by Tuesday (21/07). May Allah SWT be with u always. Good Luck.
Prediksi tidak sesuai harapan (Return: -0.519% dari 22 saham). Hasil rekomendasi kemarin: BUMI (-3.0%),DEWA (-2.5%%),UNSP (-1.4%),ELTY (-1.6%),META (+0.8%),UNTR (+1.4%),INCO (0%),PTBA (-0.88%),ANTM (+2.5%),LSIP (0%),BDMN (-2.0%),BBRI (-1.4%),BMRI (+2.2%),BBCA (-2.6%),ASII (-1.65%),SMCB (-1.53%),SMGR (+0.92%),TRUB (-1.78%),ASIA (+5.7%),PGAS (-1.48%),BMTR (-1.3%),MNCN (-5.2%). Total : -11.42% : 22 = -0.519%.
Liat rekomendasi update di Facebook: a_zakarias@yahoo.com (add me).
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Jul 17 09 07:55 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's consolidation from 58.32 continues today and at this point, intraday bias is mildly on the upside and further rise could still be seen to 38.2% retracement of 73.38 to 58.32 at 64.07. But upside should be limited below double top neckline at 66.25 and bring fall resumption. Below 60.28 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 58.32 low will indicate that whole decline from 73.38 has resumed and should target key resistance turned support at 54.66 next.
In the bigger picture, the break of medium term channel support last week indicates that rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 suggests that it's corrective in nature. In addition, Crude oil failed to sustain above both 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. Hence, such rise from 33.2 to 73.83 is treated as a correction in the larger fall from 147.24 only. Decline from 73.83 is now expected to extend further to a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 66.2 resistance is at least needed to indicate that fall from 73.83 has completed and revive the possibility that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's consolidation from 58.32 continues today and at this point, intraday bias is mildly on the upside and further rise could still be seen to 38.2% retracement of 73.38 to 58.32 at 64.07. But upside should be limited below double top neckline at 66.25 and bring fall resumption. Below 60.28 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 58.32 low will indicate that whole decline from 73.38 has resumed and should target key resistance turned support at 54.66 next.
In the bigger picture, the break of medium term channel support last week indicates that rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 suggests that it's corrective in nature. In addition, Crude oil failed to sustain above both 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. Hence, such rise from 33.2 to 73.83 is treated as a correction in the larger fall from 147.24 only. Decline from 73.83 is now expected to extend further to a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 66.2 resistance is at least needed to indicate that fall from 73.83 has completed and revive the possibility that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Jul 17 09 07:56 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
With 4 hours MACD crossed before signal line, an intraday top should be in place at 942.3. Intraday outlook in Gold neutral for the moment. While another rise cannot be ruled out, upside is expected to be limited by 949 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 992.1 to 904.8 at 948.5) to conclude the correction to fall from 992.1. On the downside, below 927.5 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a test of 904.8 low first.
In the bigger picture, fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed yet. such decline will likely extend to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, above 949 cluster resistance will suggest that fall from 992.1 has completed and turn outlook bullish for retesting this resistance. Break there will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Comex Gold (GC)
With 4 hours MACD crossed before signal line, an intraday top should be in place at 942.3. Intraday outlook in Gold neutral for the moment. While another rise cannot be ruled out, upside is expected to be limited by 949 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 992.1 to 904.8 at 948.5) to conclude the correction to fall from 992.1. On the downside, below 927.5 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a test of 904.8 low first.
In the bigger picture, fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed yet. such decline will likely extend to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, above 949 cluster resistance will suggest that fall from 992.1 has completed and turn outlook bullish for retesting this resistance. Break there will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Trading Financial Markets Using Elliott Wave's Pattern Recognition Techniques
By: EWI
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGary Grimes writes: The following article is adapted from market analysis by Elliott Wave International Chief Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy. Now through July 22, Jeffrey Kennedy’s daily, intermediate, and long-term forecasts for up to 18 markets are free via EWI’s FreeWeek. Learn more here.Wave patterns are like beautiful women, classic cars and great art – you know them when you see them.EWI analyst Jeffrey Kennedy drives this point home during his live Elliott wave trading tutorial. It's my favorite of his tips for trading with Elliott waves."Trade the pattern not the count," Jeffrey says.
If you don't recognize a pattern at a glance, don't trade it – plain and simple. After all, your wave count can be wrong; the pattern cannot.Does that mean you must know the exact wave count at a glance, as well? No. Simply spotting a pattern you recognize is where you should start.Jeffrey scans hundreds of charts, clicking through them one by one, spending mere seconds with each. If he doesn't spot a pattern he recognizes, a click of his mouse takes him to another potential opportunity.Does price action look extended or choppy? Is it trading in a channel? Is it forming a wedge or triangle shape? These are some of the signals Jeffrey's looking for. Each could help him identify – at the quickest of glances – whether price action is impulsive or corrective. This is the first critical step, Jeffrey says, to spotting high-confidence, Elliott wave trade setups.
That brings us to the following chart. Do you see a pattern you recognize? I do.
Look at the downward price action; the moves look decisive, almost in straight lines like impulse waves. Now look at the upward moves; they look indecisive and choppy like corrections. There's also one down move that is clearly longer than the others – that's almost certainly a third wave of some degree.
At just a glance, here are a few things we can determine:
* This is a bearish market pattern, because downward impulses are interrupted by upward corrections.
* The price action from September to November seems to be a pretty clear wave 3 down, followed by waves 4 up then 5 down, completing what appears to be a larger degree wave 1 in early March.
* Wave 2 follows wave 1, so the upward move starting in early March is most likely a larger degree wave 2.
* Wave 3 follows wave 2, so that's what we can expect next.
* Wave 3 is never the shortest and often the longest of all five waves, so we can expect the next impulse move to take prices to new lows.
You see, with just a quick glance, we've put a finger on the pulse of the market. Negative psychology pulls prices down, and brief reversals of mood result in upward corrections – this appears to be a long-term bear market.
If you can gain this much insight simply by glancing at a chart, just think of what else you can glean by spending more time with it. Look at this pattern within a longer time frame, and you can determine the degree of trend (this one appears to be primary). Formulate Fibonacci price and time targets, and you can be confident about when and where prices will most likely turn. There are literally hundreds of things you can do with a good chart, but none of them mean much unless you can first identify a pattern you recognize.
For more information on using patterns to spot trading opportunities, access Elliott Wave International’s FreeWeek. Now through July 22, all of EWI Chief Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy’s daily, intermediate, and long-term market forecasts are completely free. Learn more here.
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGary Grimes writes: The following article is adapted from market analysis by Elliott Wave International Chief Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy. Now through July 22, Jeffrey Kennedy’s daily, intermediate, and long-term forecasts for up to 18 markets are free via EWI’s FreeWeek. Learn more here.Wave patterns are like beautiful women, classic cars and great art – you know them when you see them.EWI analyst Jeffrey Kennedy drives this point home during his live Elliott wave trading tutorial. It's my favorite of his tips for trading with Elliott waves."Trade the pattern not the count," Jeffrey says.
If you don't recognize a pattern at a glance, don't trade it – plain and simple. After all, your wave count can be wrong; the pattern cannot.Does that mean you must know the exact wave count at a glance, as well? No. Simply spotting a pattern you recognize is where you should start.Jeffrey scans hundreds of charts, clicking through them one by one, spending mere seconds with each. If he doesn't spot a pattern he recognizes, a click of his mouse takes him to another potential opportunity.Does price action look extended or choppy? Is it trading in a channel? Is it forming a wedge or triangle shape? These are some of the signals Jeffrey's looking for. Each could help him identify – at the quickest of glances – whether price action is impulsive or corrective. This is the first critical step, Jeffrey says, to spotting high-confidence, Elliott wave trade setups.
That brings us to the following chart. Do you see a pattern you recognize? I do.
Look at the downward price action; the moves look decisive, almost in straight lines like impulse waves. Now look at the upward moves; they look indecisive and choppy like corrections. There's also one down move that is clearly longer than the others – that's almost certainly a third wave of some degree.
At just a glance, here are a few things we can determine:
* This is a bearish market pattern, because downward impulses are interrupted by upward corrections.
* The price action from September to November seems to be a pretty clear wave 3 down, followed by waves 4 up then 5 down, completing what appears to be a larger degree wave 1 in early March.
* Wave 2 follows wave 1, so the upward move starting in early March is most likely a larger degree wave 2.
* Wave 3 follows wave 2, so that's what we can expect next.
* Wave 3 is never the shortest and often the longest of all five waves, so we can expect the next impulse move to take prices to new lows.
You see, with just a quick glance, we've put a finger on the pulse of the market. Negative psychology pulls prices down, and brief reversals of mood result in upward corrections – this appears to be a long-term bear market.
If you can gain this much insight simply by glancing at a chart, just think of what else you can glean by spending more time with it. Look at this pattern within a longer time frame, and you can determine the degree of trend (this one appears to be primary). Formulate Fibonacci price and time targets, and you can be confident about when and where prices will most likely turn. There are literally hundreds of things you can do with a good chart, but none of them mean much unless you can first identify a pattern you recognize.
For more information on using patterns to spot trading opportunities, access Elliott Wave International’s FreeWeek. Now through July 22, all of EWI Chief Commodity Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy’s daily, intermediate, and long-term market forecasts are completely free. Learn more here.
Explosive Stock Market Rally Puts Bearish Market Patterns In Doubt
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe explosive surge in risk appetite following the earnings blowout from Goldman and Intel is posing serious threat to the validity of the Head-&-shoulder formations in the S&P500 and the Dow30 at the 8.600 and 930 levels, supporting the case for protracted rebound in equities and overall risk appetite. But Thursday's bigger than expected decline (first sub-500K reading in 4-week moving average in 5 months) failed to prolong the rise in stocks and bond yields. Unexpected deterioration in the July Philly Fed index to -7.5 from Junes -2.2 and news of an imminent CIT bankruptcy are preventing the positive impact from Jobless claims and JP Morgan earnings.
As spectacular as Wednesday's US rally appeared to be, equally notable was the lack of follow-through in the Thursday Asian session (+0.8% in Tokyo, flat in Bombay, -0.3% in Moscow and +0.6% in HK). The CIT news was the culprit. But also bear in mind that the VIX did close higher (first rise in 4 days) despite the S&P500s highest daily increase in 2 months. This may have been partially explained by the fact that the VIX had hit its lowest since September 10 and as equities neared key resistance levels, call buyers stayed on the defensive.
EURUSD did break above 1.4120 to 1.4165, now eyeing $1.4198 high-- 76% retracement of the $1.4338-$1.3744 decline. While the data are negative for both USD and JPY, USDJPY remains below 93.80s from earlier session high of 94.44.
GBPUSD follows on the back of overall USD-weakness, looking to test the $1.6520s, but its relative weakness to EURUSD cements EURGBP support at 0.8550 and renews prospects for regaining the 0.8630 resistance. USDJPYs rebound extended its post-91.70 predicted last week, but topped out at the 94.40s, which is the 50% retracement of the 96.97-91.78 decline.
Risk Appetite Probes Trend Line The charts below illustrate the risk-driven gains in AUDJPY and NZDJPY, currency pairs with consistently the highest positive correlation with equities (+0.7 year-to-date). Accordingly, these currency pairs, along with emerging market indices such as the Morgan Stanleys Emerging Markets index, are leading gauges of global risk appetite. Despite their falling trend lines, AUDJPY, NZDJPY and EM have yet to breaching above their resistance levels, signalled at 77.00, 62.00 and 770 respectively. Other pairs, such as AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GBPJPY remain capped at 0.81, 0.6520 and 155.70s respectively.
By Ashraf Laidi
AshrafLaidi.com
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe explosive surge in risk appetite following the earnings blowout from Goldman and Intel is posing serious threat to the validity of the Head-&-shoulder formations in the S&P500 and the Dow30 at the 8.600 and 930 levels, supporting the case for protracted rebound in equities and overall risk appetite. But Thursday's bigger than expected decline (first sub-500K reading in 4-week moving average in 5 months) failed to prolong the rise in stocks and bond yields. Unexpected deterioration in the July Philly Fed index to -7.5 from Junes -2.2 and news of an imminent CIT bankruptcy are preventing the positive impact from Jobless claims and JP Morgan earnings.
As spectacular as Wednesday's US rally appeared to be, equally notable was the lack of follow-through in the Thursday Asian session (+0.8% in Tokyo, flat in Bombay, -0.3% in Moscow and +0.6% in HK). The CIT news was the culprit. But also bear in mind that the VIX did close higher (first rise in 4 days) despite the S&P500s highest daily increase in 2 months. This may have been partially explained by the fact that the VIX had hit its lowest since September 10 and as equities neared key resistance levels, call buyers stayed on the defensive.
EURUSD did break above 1.4120 to 1.4165, now eyeing $1.4198 high-- 76% retracement of the $1.4338-$1.3744 decline. While the data are negative for both USD and JPY, USDJPY remains below 93.80s from earlier session high of 94.44.
GBPUSD follows on the back of overall USD-weakness, looking to test the $1.6520s, but its relative weakness to EURUSD cements EURGBP support at 0.8550 and renews prospects for regaining the 0.8630 resistance. USDJPYs rebound extended its post-91.70 predicted last week, but topped out at the 94.40s, which is the 50% retracement of the 96.97-91.78 decline.
Risk Appetite Probes Trend Line The charts below illustrate the risk-driven gains in AUDJPY and NZDJPY, currency pairs with consistently the highest positive correlation with equities (+0.7 year-to-date). Accordingly, these currency pairs, along with emerging market indices such as the Morgan Stanleys Emerging Markets index, are leading gauges of global risk appetite. Despite their falling trend lines, AUDJPY, NZDJPY and EM have yet to breaching above their resistance levels, signalled at 77.00, 62.00 and 770 respectively. Other pairs, such as AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GBPJPY remain capped at 0.81, 0.6520 and 155.70s respectively.
By Ashraf Laidi
AshrafLaidi.com
Cover The World With Global ETFs
By Ron Rowland on July 16, 2009
Once upon a time, Americans who wanted to invest in foreign stock markets faced all kinds of hurdles. For example, brokers often weren’t able to process orders on non-U.S. exchanges. And the few good global mutual funds that existed tended to have very high loads and fees. Plus you could expect to be harshly punished if you tried to make a short-term trade. We’re in a new age now … thanks to the ETF revolution, you can spread your portfolio over just about the whole world - or only a few parts of it. And you get to pick which parts! Today I want to run through the different categories of global ETFs. As you’ll see, with more than 200 of them now available, you can be as broad - or as specific - as you want.
Cover the World With Global ETFs …
Looking for simplicity? Then you may want to consider a global ETF that includes stocks from around the world, including the U.S. For instance, take a look at VT (VT: 36.39 0.00 0.00%) - the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF. Just like the name suggests, it tracks an index of stocks from almost every exchange on the globe.
With VT you get the widest possible stock exposure with the ease of just one trade. It’s a great option for those who like one-stop shopping.A slightly narrower group of ETFs tracks indexes of non-U.S. stocks only. Note the distinction here: “Global” or “world” ETFs include the U.S. and other countries. “Foreign” and “international” include various groupings of other world markets, but exclude U.S. markets.
A good example of a foreign ETF is the iShares MSCI EAFE, ticker EFA (EFA: 46.99 0.00 0.00%). The acronym EAFE stands for Europe, Australasia, and the Far East - the entire developed world’s markets outside the U.S.A sister fund, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM: 33.23 0.00 0.00%), tracks emerging markets. What, you might ask, is the difference between a “developed” market and an “emerging” market? Good question. And the answer is somewhat subjective …
Index providers, like MSCI, draw the line based on their ongoing analysis of each country. This means that countries can move from one category to the next. For instance, Israel was recently promoted to “developed” status by MSCI. South Korea and Taiwan are still considered emerging markets but will probably be reclassified soon. When this happens, the holdings in EFA and EEM are automatically changed - you don’t have to do anything.And there’s even a category labeled frontier markets. These are the very small markets that don’t qualify for emerging market status. The Claymore/BNY Mellon Frontier Markets ETF (FRN: 15.99 0.00 0.00%) is one of the ETFs that attempts to capture these still-tiny niches. Its top holdings include stocks of companies from countries such as Egypt, Czechoslovakia, and Qatar.Since you’re reading Money and Markets, I’ll bet you like to follow the markets more actively. Therefore, you might be interested in zeroing in on certain parts of the world. If so, consider looking at …
Regional and Country ETFs …
Maybe you think (as I do) that much of the world’s growth during the next few years will be in Asia. A broad fund then, like VT that includes the U.S. and Europe, wouldn’t exactly meet your requirements. Good news: There are about 25 regional ETFs that specialize in specific areas of the globe!So if you like the Asia Pacific region, you might consider the Vanguard MSCI Pacific (VPL: 46.15 0.00 0.00%). You’ll get exposure to stocks from Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and New Zealand. Since VPL’s index is market-weighted, Japan is its biggest holding.
That’s not all …
You can pick from more than 45 single-country ETFs that trade in the U.S. just like regular ETFs and stocks. These ETFs let you easily follow market momentum as it travels around the world.Maybe you want to target Japan … take a look at the SPDR Russell/Nomura Prime Japan (JPP: 35.39 0.00 0.00%), where you’ll find a portfolio full of Japanese blue chips. It’s just one of ten ETFs that focus exclusively on Japan.
Other examples of single-country ETFs, moving from East to West, include …
* PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China (PGJ: 21.22 0.00 0.00%)
* iShares MSCI Malaysia (EWM: 9.20 0.00 0.00%)
* iPath MSCI India ETN (INP: 49.10 0.00 0.00%)
* Market Vectors Russia (RSX: 20.05 0.00 0.00%)
* iShares MSCI South Africa (EZA: 48.10 0.00 0.00%)
* iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ: 53.711 0.00 0.00%)
International Sectors …
You can also get sector-focused global and international ETFs. This is one of the largest groups of international funds with more than 65 ETFs.One example is the SPDR S&P International Energy (IPW: 22.593 0.00 0.00%). Instead of being dominated by the American multinational oil giants like many energy sector funds, IPW gives you access to non-U.S. companies like BP Group, Royal Dutch Shell, Encana, and Suncor.
Specialty International Funds …
When most people think of ETFs, they think of stock funds. However, there are now more and more bond ETFs being introduced. In fact, there are already seven international bond ETFs, such as the SPDR Barclays International Treasury Bond ETF (BWX: 55.21 0.00 0.00%). Currency ETFs provide yet another way to invest outside the borders of the U.S. There are more than 30 of them, and I covered this topic in my June 18 column.Next, let’s take a quick look at one more category of ETFs: Those that follow certain investment themes combined with a geographic specialty. A good example is the Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap (HAO: 21.95 0.00 0.00%). In addition to investing exclusively in China, HAO concentrates even more and gives you a portfolio of fast-growing Chinese small-caps.
Last but not least, we’re starting to see more leveraged and inverse international ETFs. Look for the selection of these to grow, but use them with caution. See my June 25 column to learn more.As you can tell, the world of ETFs is a lot bigger than you might think. And you can use it to expand your horizons and scour the globe for profits!To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive.
Once upon a time, Americans who wanted to invest in foreign stock markets faced all kinds of hurdles. For example, brokers often weren’t able to process orders on non-U.S. exchanges. And the few good global mutual funds that existed tended to have very high loads and fees. Plus you could expect to be harshly punished if you tried to make a short-term trade. We’re in a new age now … thanks to the ETF revolution, you can spread your portfolio over just about the whole world - or only a few parts of it. And you get to pick which parts! Today I want to run through the different categories of global ETFs. As you’ll see, with more than 200 of them now available, you can be as broad - or as specific - as you want.
Cover the World With Global ETFs …
Looking for simplicity? Then you may want to consider a global ETF that includes stocks from around the world, including the U.S. For instance, take a look at VT (VT: 36.39 0.00 0.00%) - the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF. Just like the name suggests, it tracks an index of stocks from almost every exchange on the globe.
With VT you get the widest possible stock exposure with the ease of just one trade. It’s a great option for those who like one-stop shopping.A slightly narrower group of ETFs tracks indexes of non-U.S. stocks only. Note the distinction here: “Global” or “world” ETFs include the U.S. and other countries. “Foreign” and “international” include various groupings of other world markets, but exclude U.S. markets.
A good example of a foreign ETF is the iShares MSCI EAFE, ticker EFA (EFA: 46.99 0.00 0.00%). The acronym EAFE stands for Europe, Australasia, and the Far East - the entire developed world’s markets outside the U.S.A sister fund, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM: 33.23 0.00 0.00%), tracks emerging markets. What, you might ask, is the difference between a “developed” market and an “emerging” market? Good question. And the answer is somewhat subjective …
Index providers, like MSCI, draw the line based on their ongoing analysis of each country. This means that countries can move from one category to the next. For instance, Israel was recently promoted to “developed” status by MSCI. South Korea and Taiwan are still considered emerging markets but will probably be reclassified soon. When this happens, the holdings in EFA and EEM are automatically changed - you don’t have to do anything.And there’s even a category labeled frontier markets. These are the very small markets that don’t qualify for emerging market status. The Claymore/BNY Mellon Frontier Markets ETF (FRN: 15.99 0.00 0.00%) is one of the ETFs that attempts to capture these still-tiny niches. Its top holdings include stocks of companies from countries such as Egypt, Czechoslovakia, and Qatar.Since you’re reading Money and Markets, I’ll bet you like to follow the markets more actively. Therefore, you might be interested in zeroing in on certain parts of the world. If so, consider looking at …
Regional and Country ETFs …
Maybe you think (as I do) that much of the world’s growth during the next few years will be in Asia. A broad fund then, like VT that includes the U.S. and Europe, wouldn’t exactly meet your requirements. Good news: There are about 25 regional ETFs that specialize in specific areas of the globe!So if you like the Asia Pacific region, you might consider the Vanguard MSCI Pacific (VPL: 46.15 0.00 0.00%). You’ll get exposure to stocks from Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and New Zealand. Since VPL’s index is market-weighted, Japan is its biggest holding.
That’s not all …
You can pick from more than 45 single-country ETFs that trade in the U.S. just like regular ETFs and stocks. These ETFs let you easily follow market momentum as it travels around the world.Maybe you want to target Japan … take a look at the SPDR Russell/Nomura Prime Japan (JPP: 35.39 0.00 0.00%), where you’ll find a portfolio full of Japanese blue chips. It’s just one of ten ETFs that focus exclusively on Japan.
Other examples of single-country ETFs, moving from East to West, include …
* PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China (PGJ: 21.22 0.00 0.00%)
* iShares MSCI Malaysia (EWM: 9.20 0.00 0.00%)
* iPath MSCI India ETN (INP: 49.10 0.00 0.00%)
* Market Vectors Russia (RSX: 20.05 0.00 0.00%)
* iShares MSCI South Africa (EZA: 48.10 0.00 0.00%)
* iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ: 53.711 0.00 0.00%)
International Sectors …
You can also get sector-focused global and international ETFs. This is one of the largest groups of international funds with more than 65 ETFs.One example is the SPDR S&P International Energy (IPW: 22.593 0.00 0.00%). Instead of being dominated by the American multinational oil giants like many energy sector funds, IPW gives you access to non-U.S. companies like BP Group, Royal Dutch Shell, Encana, and Suncor.
Specialty International Funds …
When most people think of ETFs, they think of stock funds. However, there are now more and more bond ETFs being introduced. In fact, there are already seven international bond ETFs, such as the SPDR Barclays International Treasury Bond ETF (BWX: 55.21 0.00 0.00%). Currency ETFs provide yet another way to invest outside the borders of the U.S. There are more than 30 of them, and I covered this topic in my June 18 column.Next, let’s take a quick look at one more category of ETFs: Those that follow certain investment themes combined with a geographic specialty. A good example is the Claymore/AlphaShares China Small Cap (HAO: 21.95 0.00 0.00%). In addition to investing exclusively in China, HAO concentrates even more and gives you a portfolio of fast-growing Chinese small-caps.
Last but not least, we’re starting to see more leveraged and inverse international ETFs. Look for the selection of these to grow, but use them with caution. See my June 25 column to learn more.As you can tell, the world of ETFs is a lot bigger than you might think. And you can use it to expand your horizons and scour the globe for profits!To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive.
Covered Calls: Five Steps To Make Profitable Option Trades
By Investment U on July 17, 2009
The mainstream “press” does not want you to pay attention to option strategies such as covered calls. There is a conspiracy here - and it’s meant to keep you ignorant to a sector of the market that just doesn’t fit in with the “buy stocks and mutual funds” mantra that makes Wall Street money.You see, there are no upgrades or downgrades for covered calls, LEAPs, or puts.It’s because most mutual fun managers can’t see beyond what they have been taught, which has predominantly been to “buy stocks.” Sure, they’ve heard of options and even know how they work, but they are scared of showing options on their portfolios because the “Average Joe” that invests in mutual funds still looks at options with tremendous skepticism.
They’re dead wrong.
The options market was created for professionals and institutional money managers, who don’t report to the general public, but to their wealthy or sophisticated constituents. When George Soros took down the Bank of England to the tune of billions of pounds, he did so by using the leverage that options provided him. He saw a trend and figured out how to best capitalize on it with risking less money . If it went against him, he would have lost big, but not nearly as big as someone who was risking it all.The key to trading options is knowing how to use them to maximize the efficiency of your money. The first - and easiest - strategy for using options is the covered call trade. Here’s how you can use it to separate yourself from the average investor.
Why a Covered Call is “Covered”
In order to execute a covered call trade you need to use both a stock and an option.
The reason it’s called “covered” is because it means that your trade using the option is covered by the underlying shares that you own. There is no risk to the broker when you execute this trade because if it goes against you, there is protection of equity by the shares you already own. That is why this type of trade can be done by anyone in any type of account, including your retirement account.
When you enter into a conventional covered call trade you are pledging to sell your shares at a certain price (strike price) on a certain date (expiration). For pledging your shares, you will be paid money (premium).Consider yourself a stock landlord. You are renting your property for any given time, and expect to be paid for it. The money or rent that you receive is yours to keep, spend or reinvest.
In other words, you will have reduced the basis of your stock by receiving money back for the “rental.” Remember that anytime you reduce your cost basis, you have also reduced your risk.
How to Place a Covered Call Trade
An example of a conventional covered call trade would be something like this:
* You buy 1,000 shares of Yamana Gold (AUY: 9.42 0.00 0.00%) for $8.50 per share. You think that Yamana can go to $10 by year’s end. You look at the options chain (a listing of the options available) and find out what the market is buying and selling Yamana’s $10 options for.
* Just like stocks, you buy at the offer/ask and sell at the bid. In this case, you see that the option is trading for $0.90 on the bid and $0.95 on the offer.
* Options are priced in increments of $0.01, $0.05 and $0.10 depending on volume traded, and selling price. In the case of Yamana, this set of options is priced in $0.05 increments.
* Options trade as contracts and each is equivalent to 100 shares of stock. The price is listed in per share amounts but is for 100 shares. So, while the Yamana options are priced at $0.90 by $0.95, the minimum dollar amount that you need to be aware of is for one contract or $90 by $95.
It also means, for the purposes of covered call investing, that you need to own at least 100 shares of Yamana to execute the trade.
* The strike price of $10 means that the buyer or seller of the option is has the right to either buy or sell Yamana at $10 depending on the strategy used and if the contract is bought or sold.
* If the option is sold, as in the case of a covered call trade, the seller of the option is obligated to deliver shares of Yamana to the buyer if the shares close at $10 or higher.
The buyer of the option has the option of taking delivery of the shares or selling the option back into the market.
Getting back to our covered call example, let’s get some other details:
You bought 1,000 shares of Yamana at $8.40, so you paid $8,400. You then sold 10 contracts of the Yamana January $10 call option. (Remember each contract equals 100 shares so for 1,000 shares you must sell 10 contracts.) You sell the options at the bid price of $0.90 receiving proceeds of $900. The $900 comes from 10 contracts, or 1,000 shares, times $0.90 per share.
Your cost in Yamana has now been reduced by 90 cents per share, so it is now $7.50 (8.40 minus $0.90) and the money you received, 90 cents per share is yours to do with what you will.
So how does it all end?
There are three possible scenarios in the works now.
* First, if Yamana closes at $10 or higher at the expiration date in January, your shares will be automatically sold to the buyer of the option at $10 per share, regardless of what price Yamana is trading for, as long as it is $10 or higher.That buyer who you sold the option to was betting that Yamana would close at $10.90 or higher in order for him to make money. Anything less and he loses. The $10.90 comes from the $10 strike plus his cost of $0.90 for the option. If it closes at $10 or higher you will make 33% on your money ($10 strike minus $7.50 cost = $2.50 profit. $2.50 profit divided by $7.50 cost equals 33%).
* If Yamana goes nowhere at stays at $8.40 at expiration you will still make money because you took in 90 cents when you sold the option. Therefore, your return on the trade would be 12% ($8.40 minus $0.90 = $7.50. $0.90 divided by $7.50 = 12%). Since the shares weren’t higher than $10 at expiration, the contract wasn’t executed and it would expire worthless. But you still retain ownership of the shares, free to sell another covered call.
* Finally, if Yamana closes below $8.40, you will still make money since your cost was $7.50. You can only lose money if Yamana closes below $7.50, your adjusted cost and your breakeven point.
Profiting From Covered Calls
As long as Yamana closes below $10, you will retain ownership of the shares and face two options. The first would be to sell your stock and the second would be to sell even more CALL options against your position further reducing your cost. As the owner of the shares you are entitled to any dividends that are paid to shareholders during your period of ownership.
To summarize:
* A covered call trade requires you to own the shares that you then sell options against.
* The money received from selling the options is yours to keep immediately.
* If the shares close above your strike price, they will be taken away (called away) from your account automatically and the money will be deposited in your account.
* Covered calls can be done in any type of account, including retirement accounts.
* Covered call trading can generate additional income while reducing your risk.
Stay tuned over the next few weeks as we break these profitable option trades down even further and we will explore a variation on covered call trading that can reduce your risk substantially while still providing double-digit returns.
The mainstream “press” does not want you to pay attention to option strategies such as covered calls. There is a conspiracy here - and it’s meant to keep you ignorant to a sector of the market that just doesn’t fit in with the “buy stocks and mutual funds” mantra that makes Wall Street money.You see, there are no upgrades or downgrades for covered calls, LEAPs, or puts.It’s because most mutual fun managers can’t see beyond what they have been taught, which has predominantly been to “buy stocks.” Sure, they’ve heard of options and even know how they work, but they are scared of showing options on their portfolios because the “Average Joe” that invests in mutual funds still looks at options with tremendous skepticism.
They’re dead wrong.
The options market was created for professionals and institutional money managers, who don’t report to the general public, but to their wealthy or sophisticated constituents. When George Soros took down the Bank of England to the tune of billions of pounds, he did so by using the leverage that options provided him. He saw a trend and figured out how to best capitalize on it with risking less money . If it went against him, he would have lost big, but not nearly as big as someone who was risking it all.The key to trading options is knowing how to use them to maximize the efficiency of your money. The first - and easiest - strategy for using options is the covered call trade. Here’s how you can use it to separate yourself from the average investor.
Why a Covered Call is “Covered”
In order to execute a covered call trade you need to use both a stock and an option.
The reason it’s called “covered” is because it means that your trade using the option is covered by the underlying shares that you own. There is no risk to the broker when you execute this trade because if it goes against you, there is protection of equity by the shares you already own. That is why this type of trade can be done by anyone in any type of account, including your retirement account.
When you enter into a conventional covered call trade you are pledging to sell your shares at a certain price (strike price) on a certain date (expiration). For pledging your shares, you will be paid money (premium).Consider yourself a stock landlord. You are renting your property for any given time, and expect to be paid for it. The money or rent that you receive is yours to keep, spend or reinvest.
In other words, you will have reduced the basis of your stock by receiving money back for the “rental.” Remember that anytime you reduce your cost basis, you have also reduced your risk.
How to Place a Covered Call Trade
An example of a conventional covered call trade would be something like this:
* You buy 1,000 shares of Yamana Gold (AUY: 9.42 0.00 0.00%) for $8.50 per share. You think that Yamana can go to $10 by year’s end. You look at the options chain (a listing of the options available) and find out what the market is buying and selling Yamana’s $10 options for.
* Just like stocks, you buy at the offer/ask and sell at the bid. In this case, you see that the option is trading for $0.90 on the bid and $0.95 on the offer.
* Options are priced in increments of $0.01, $0.05 and $0.10 depending on volume traded, and selling price. In the case of Yamana, this set of options is priced in $0.05 increments.
* Options trade as contracts and each is equivalent to 100 shares of stock. The price is listed in per share amounts but is for 100 shares. So, while the Yamana options are priced at $0.90 by $0.95, the minimum dollar amount that you need to be aware of is for one contract or $90 by $95.
It also means, for the purposes of covered call investing, that you need to own at least 100 shares of Yamana to execute the trade.
* The strike price of $10 means that the buyer or seller of the option is has the right to either buy or sell Yamana at $10 depending on the strategy used and if the contract is bought or sold.
* If the option is sold, as in the case of a covered call trade, the seller of the option is obligated to deliver shares of Yamana to the buyer if the shares close at $10 or higher.
The buyer of the option has the option of taking delivery of the shares or selling the option back into the market.
Getting back to our covered call example, let’s get some other details:
You bought 1,000 shares of Yamana at $8.40, so you paid $8,400. You then sold 10 contracts of the Yamana January $10 call option. (Remember each contract equals 100 shares so for 1,000 shares you must sell 10 contracts.) You sell the options at the bid price of $0.90 receiving proceeds of $900. The $900 comes from 10 contracts, or 1,000 shares, times $0.90 per share.
Your cost in Yamana has now been reduced by 90 cents per share, so it is now $7.50 (8.40 minus $0.90) and the money you received, 90 cents per share is yours to do with what you will.
So how does it all end?
There are three possible scenarios in the works now.
* First, if Yamana closes at $10 or higher at the expiration date in January, your shares will be automatically sold to the buyer of the option at $10 per share, regardless of what price Yamana is trading for, as long as it is $10 or higher.That buyer who you sold the option to was betting that Yamana would close at $10.90 or higher in order for him to make money. Anything less and he loses. The $10.90 comes from the $10 strike plus his cost of $0.90 for the option. If it closes at $10 or higher you will make 33% on your money ($10 strike minus $7.50 cost = $2.50 profit. $2.50 profit divided by $7.50 cost equals 33%).
* If Yamana goes nowhere at stays at $8.40 at expiration you will still make money because you took in 90 cents when you sold the option. Therefore, your return on the trade would be 12% ($8.40 minus $0.90 = $7.50. $0.90 divided by $7.50 = 12%). Since the shares weren’t higher than $10 at expiration, the contract wasn’t executed and it would expire worthless. But you still retain ownership of the shares, free to sell another covered call.
* Finally, if Yamana closes below $8.40, you will still make money since your cost was $7.50. You can only lose money if Yamana closes below $7.50, your adjusted cost and your breakeven point.
Profiting From Covered Calls
As long as Yamana closes below $10, you will retain ownership of the shares and face two options. The first would be to sell your stock and the second would be to sell even more CALL options against your position further reducing your cost. As the owner of the shares you are entitled to any dividends that are paid to shareholders during your period of ownership.
To summarize:
* A covered call trade requires you to own the shares that you then sell options against.
* The money received from selling the options is yours to keep immediately.
* If the shares close above your strike price, they will be taken away (called away) from your account automatically and the money will be deposited in your account.
* Covered calls can be done in any type of account, including retirement accounts.
* Covered call trading can generate additional income while reducing your risk.
Stay tuned over the next few weeks as we break these profitable option trades down even further and we will explore a variation on covered call trading that can reduce your risk substantially while still providing double-digit returns.
Jim Rogers Advocates Buying Agriculture To Protect Your Net Worth
By Andrew Abraham on July 17, 2009
Everyone is concerned these days on how to protect their net wealth. Nothing is safe. Leaving your money…regardless if it is British pounds ( which fell from the low 2.00 to 1.60s to the US dollar), the US dollar or even Eurodollars ( do to a breakup in the EU). So far the specter of inflation has not come to life. However it is virtually unthinkable that there will not be any inflation with all the money that has been injected into the worlds money supply. The facts are very simple. There are droughts, more demands from a growing population ( China, India..etc) and diminished supplies of basic commodities. Do you remember rice last year? All of these are a catalyst of inflation. Jim Rogers advocates buying agriculturals to protect your net worth. The fact is, I remember being at the luxury hotel the Breakers in Palm Beach Florida in about 2005 and front page of money magazine ( I think) was Jim speaking about the housing bubble in the US. He was right! How many people wished they would have listened to him?
To be honest.. I greatly pared down my real estate holding but did not sell everything and has been very aggravating. Can you imagine if Jim Rogers is correct again? Jim Rogers has been around a long time with an interesting track record.
I have to agree with a great of his thinkings regarding the US dollar, Inflation and Commodity trading. However I differ in the fact just jump and go buy various commodities or sell US dollars etc without a thought out plan. Timing is everything. You can be right long term but suffer in the short run ( and lose money). Instead of just predicting…let the price action delineate your investment actions. This is what trend following is all about. Follow the price action. It is extremely probable that the predictions of Jim Rogers will be actualized. In my opinion the only way to benefit from the potentials is to have a well thought out plan based on risk and money management. If this is not your core competency seek the advice of your financial planner or more aptly a commodity trading advisor that understands risk. Potentially we could be headed back in times like the early 1980s with high interest and high inflation or even worse with potential hyperinflation. Anything is possible.
You have a choice, you can do nothing…keep your money in the bank…and inflation will wipe out your net worth… or you can ride the inflation wave (when and if it comes) and look to protect your net wealth.
Everyone is concerned these days on how to protect their net wealth. Nothing is safe. Leaving your money…regardless if it is British pounds ( which fell from the low 2.00 to 1.60s to the US dollar), the US dollar or even Eurodollars ( do to a breakup in the EU). So far the specter of inflation has not come to life. However it is virtually unthinkable that there will not be any inflation with all the money that has been injected into the worlds money supply. The facts are very simple. There are droughts, more demands from a growing population ( China, India..etc) and diminished supplies of basic commodities. Do you remember rice last year? All of these are a catalyst of inflation. Jim Rogers advocates buying agriculturals to protect your net worth. The fact is, I remember being at the luxury hotel the Breakers in Palm Beach Florida in about 2005 and front page of money magazine ( I think) was Jim speaking about the housing bubble in the US. He was right! How many people wished they would have listened to him?
To be honest.. I greatly pared down my real estate holding but did not sell everything and has been very aggravating. Can you imagine if Jim Rogers is correct again? Jim Rogers has been around a long time with an interesting track record.
I have to agree with a great of his thinkings regarding the US dollar, Inflation and Commodity trading. However I differ in the fact just jump and go buy various commodities or sell US dollars etc without a thought out plan. Timing is everything. You can be right long term but suffer in the short run ( and lose money). Instead of just predicting…let the price action delineate your investment actions. This is what trend following is all about. Follow the price action. It is extremely probable that the predictions of Jim Rogers will be actualized. In my opinion the only way to benefit from the potentials is to have a well thought out plan based on risk and money management. If this is not your core competency seek the advice of your financial planner or more aptly a commodity trading advisor that understands risk. Potentially we could be headed back in times like the early 1980s with high interest and high inflation or even worse with potential hyperinflation. Anything is possible.
You have a choice, you can do nothing…keep your money in the bank…and inflation will wipe out your net worth… or you can ride the inflation wave (when and if it comes) and look to protect your net wealth.
IHSG : Signal Shooting Star Membebani Momentum Uptrend
IHSG Outlook
IHSG masih mendapatkan support dari sejumlah sentimen positif yang dapat mengangkat IHSG lebih lanjut, perkiraan penerbitan Samurai Bond milik pemerintah Indonesia senilai US$ 1.1 miliar hari ini, dapat memicu inflow, setelah di awal pekan ini lelang 3 SUN menunjukkan permintaan hampir 3 kali dari penerimaan negara senilai Rp 3 triliun, sehingga berpotensi menguatkan Rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan Rp 10,109: target Rp 9,800-10,000), dapat memberikan imbas positif kepada saham-saham yang sensitif terhadap inflasi, suku bunga dan pembayaran hutang dalam bentuk USD, seperti saham perbankan, property, konsumsi, aneka industri dan infrastruktur. Rencana pembagian dividen dan lapkeu Q1 bank (BDMN, BBNI), diikuti Indonesia masih menjadi pilihan untuk investasi dari investor asing, setelah JP Morgan Asset Management Ltd, menyukai saham Indonesia, India dan China, terutama di saham di sektor properti. Potensi kenaikan harga minyak (target YS$ 64/67, teknikal oversold) yang dapat angkat harga komoditas lainnya (cpo, nikel, emas, timah), dapat memberikan momentum kenaikan saham komoditi di beberapa hari mendatang. Sementara faktor teknikal menunjukkan pola bullish continuation setelah menembus double top resistance 2,116 hari Rabu, dapat memperkuat momentum kenaikan IHSG hari hingga awal pekan depan.
Sementara faktor eksternal juga ikut mendukung momentum kenaikan indeks saham global dan IHSG, terutama musim earnings di AS sejak akhir pekan lalu menunjukkan hasil yang lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar (Alcoa, Goldman Sachs, Intel, J&J, JP Morgan) dapat memicu spekulasi earning emiten lokal di Q2 2009 (dirilis akhir Juli-September) dapat tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan. Sejumlah data ekonomi global (GDP Q2 China tercatat 7.9%; pada pekan ini, ikut meredakan kekhawatiran resesi ekonomi global akan berkepanjangan. Meski laporan CIT Group dan menjelang lapkeu Bank of America & Citigroup (17/07) dapat membatasi laju kenaikan indeks saham regional dan IHSG hari ini.
Stock Picks : Potential yield 10%-20%, risk <10%
Hold Buy (close positition today): BUMI/ENRG/ELTY, BMTR/MNCN, CTRP, INCO, INDF, SMGR, BBCA, BMRI, BBRI, TLKM, ISAT, PTBA,TRUB.
Stock Picks:
* ANTM hold target Rp 3,000
* TOTL Buy target Rp 245
Technical Analysis:
Pola candle shooting star (high realibility bearish reversal) membayangi uptrend channel IHSG hari ini, dimana kemarin kenaikan IHSG tertahan di 2,154 (upper channel) yang mendorong ditutup melemah tipis. Tetapi IHSG berhasil ditutup diatas support 2,116 (ex double top), diikuti indikator ADX yang trending up, stohastic crossover di teritorial positif, MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan IHSG kendati terbatas hari ini. Selama IHSG masih bertahan diatas support 2,028 (trendline support). Potensi kenaikan tetap terbuka ke target 2,165/2,220. Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan koreksi abc telah selesai, mendorong perkiraan kenaikan saat ini merupakan proses wave impulse 5 dalam wave minor 3 dalam 5 subwave dalam wave intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2191.50/2170.53/2157.39/2136.41. PP 2128.59
Support : 2102.30/2094.47/2065.67/2044.70
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2070 - 2,170)
Untuk lebih strategist yang lebih update bisa dilihat di Facebook: a_zakarias@yahoo.com
IHSG masih mendapatkan support dari sejumlah sentimen positif yang dapat mengangkat IHSG lebih lanjut, perkiraan penerbitan Samurai Bond milik pemerintah Indonesia senilai US$ 1.1 miliar hari ini, dapat memicu inflow, setelah di awal pekan ini lelang 3 SUN menunjukkan permintaan hampir 3 kali dari penerimaan negara senilai Rp 3 triliun, sehingga berpotensi menguatkan Rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan Rp 10,109: target Rp 9,800-10,000), dapat memberikan imbas positif kepada saham-saham yang sensitif terhadap inflasi, suku bunga dan pembayaran hutang dalam bentuk USD, seperti saham perbankan, property, konsumsi, aneka industri dan infrastruktur. Rencana pembagian dividen dan lapkeu Q1 bank (BDMN, BBNI), diikuti Indonesia masih menjadi pilihan untuk investasi dari investor asing, setelah JP Morgan Asset Management Ltd, menyukai saham Indonesia, India dan China, terutama di saham di sektor properti. Potensi kenaikan harga minyak (target YS$ 64/67, teknikal oversold) yang dapat angkat harga komoditas lainnya (cpo, nikel, emas, timah), dapat memberikan momentum kenaikan saham komoditi di beberapa hari mendatang. Sementara faktor teknikal menunjukkan pola bullish continuation setelah menembus double top resistance 2,116 hari Rabu, dapat memperkuat momentum kenaikan IHSG hari hingga awal pekan depan.
Sementara faktor eksternal juga ikut mendukung momentum kenaikan indeks saham global dan IHSG, terutama musim earnings di AS sejak akhir pekan lalu menunjukkan hasil yang lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar (Alcoa, Goldman Sachs, Intel, J&J, JP Morgan) dapat memicu spekulasi earning emiten lokal di Q2 2009 (dirilis akhir Juli-September) dapat tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan. Sejumlah data ekonomi global (GDP Q2 China tercatat 7.9%; pada pekan ini, ikut meredakan kekhawatiran resesi ekonomi global akan berkepanjangan. Meski laporan CIT Group dan menjelang lapkeu Bank of America & Citigroup (17/07) dapat membatasi laju kenaikan indeks saham regional dan IHSG hari ini.
Stock Picks : Potential yield 10%-20%, risk <10%
Hold Buy (close positition today): BUMI/ENRG/ELTY, BMTR/MNCN, CTRP, INCO, INDF, SMGR, BBCA, BMRI, BBRI, TLKM, ISAT, PTBA,TRUB.
Stock Picks:
* ANTM hold target Rp 3,000
* TOTL Buy target Rp 245
Technical Analysis:
Pola candle shooting star (high realibility bearish reversal) membayangi uptrend channel IHSG hari ini, dimana kemarin kenaikan IHSG tertahan di 2,154 (upper channel) yang mendorong ditutup melemah tipis. Tetapi IHSG berhasil ditutup diatas support 2,116 (ex double top), diikuti indikator ADX yang trending up, stohastic crossover di teritorial positif, MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan IHSG kendati terbatas hari ini. Selama IHSG masih bertahan diatas support 2,028 (trendline support). Potensi kenaikan tetap terbuka ke target 2,165/2,220. Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan koreksi abc telah selesai, mendorong perkiraan kenaikan saat ini merupakan proses wave impulse 5 dalam wave minor 3 dalam 5 subwave dalam wave intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2191.50/2170.53/2157.39/2136.41. PP 2128.59
Support : 2102.30/2094.47/2065.67/2044.70
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2070 - 2,170)
Untuk lebih strategist yang lebih update bisa dilihat di Facebook: a_zakarias@yahoo.com
S&P 500 to Rise More, Credit Suisse Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rise further after breaking a “major resistance” level yesterday and crossing its 233-day moving average for the first time since December 2007, according to analysts at Credit Suisse Group AG who use price charts to make forecasts. “A rise above the June highs is expected in the coming 2-3 weeks,” technical analysts at the Swiss bank including Zurich- based Mensur Pocinci wrote in a report today. “With yesterday’s advance most stock markets have triggered upgrade levels on the short- and medium-term horizon.”The benchmark index for U.S. stocks rose to 932.68 at yesterday’s close, bringing this week’s increase to 6.1 percent. While the measure, down 1.4 percent since June 12 when it reached a seven-month high of 946.21, may fall back to 925 in the next day or two, the uptrend is “expected to resume,” Pocinci said in a phone interview. “The upward movement in the last few days was too strong and too fast.”
Technical analysts look at price charts to forecast resistance levels, or ceilings restricting further price increases, and support levels, or floors limiting declines.
“The break of the 233-day moving average, which is a Fibonacci number, is a further bullish sign,” Pocinci said. The S&P 500 closed above its 233-day moving average, currently at 928.61, for the first time since December 2007. Fibonacci analysts use a system pioneered by 13th century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, who discerned ratios from proportions found in nature. The analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. Passage through one level is a sign an index will keep moving to the next.
Technical analysts look at price charts to forecast resistance levels, or ceilings restricting further price increases, and support levels, or floors limiting declines.
“The break of the 233-day moving average, which is a Fibonacci number, is a further bullish sign,” Pocinci said. The S&P 500 closed above its 233-day moving average, currently at 928.61, for the first time since December 2007. Fibonacci analysts use a system pioneered by 13th century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, who discerned ratios from proportions found in nature. The analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. Passage through one level is a sign an index will keep moving to the next.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Jul 16 09 06:43 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's break of 61.57 minor resistance suggest that a short term low is in place at 58.32. Some more consolidation should be seen with risk of rising to 38.2% retracement of 73.38 to 58.32 at 64.07. But upside should be limited below double top neckline at 66.25 and bring fall resumption. Below 58.32 will indicate that whole decline from 73.38 has resumed and should target key resistance turned support at 54.66 next.
In the bigger picture, the break of medium term channel support last week indicates that rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 suggests that it's corrective in nature. In addition, Crude oil failed to sustain above both 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. Hence, such rise from 33.2 to 73.83 is treated as a correction in the larger fall from 147.24 only. Decline from 73.83 is now expected to extend further to a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 66.2 resistance is at least needed to indicate that fall from 73.83 has completed and revive the possibility that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's break of 61.57 minor resistance suggest that a short term low is in place at 58.32. Some more consolidation should be seen with risk of rising to 38.2% retracement of 73.38 to 58.32 at 64.07. But upside should be limited below double top neckline at 66.25 and bring fall resumption. Below 58.32 will indicate that whole decline from 73.38 has resumed and should target key resistance turned support at 54.66 next.
In the bigger picture, the break of medium term channel support last week indicates that rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 suggests that it's corrective in nature. In addition, Crude oil failed to sustain above both 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. Hence, such rise from 33.2 to 73.83 is treated as a correction in the larger fall from 147.24 only. Decline from 73.83 is now expected to extend further to a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 66.2 resistance is at least needed to indicate that fall from 73.83 has completed and revive the possibility that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Jul 16 09 06:45 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rebound from 904.8 extends further to as high as 942.3 before retreating mildly. Further rally might still be seen with 927.5 minor support intact. But after all, since rise from 904.8 is treated as a correction to fall from 992.1 only, upside should be limited by 949 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 992.1 to 904.8 at 948.5) and bring fall resumption. Below 927.5 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a test of 904.8 low first.
In the bigger picture, fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed yet. such decline will likely extend to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, above 949 cluster resistance will suggest that fall from 992.1 has completed and turn outlook bullish for retesting this resistance. Break there will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rebound from 904.8 extends further to as high as 942.3 before retreating mildly. Further rally might still be seen with 927.5 minor support intact. But after all, since rise from 904.8 is treated as a correction to fall from 992.1 only, upside should be limited by 949 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 992.1 to 904.8 at 948.5) and bring fall resumption. Below 927.5 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a test of 904.8 low first.
In the bigger picture, fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed yet. such decline will likely extend to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, above 949 cluster resistance will suggest that fall from 992.1 has completed and turn outlook bullish for retesting this resistance. Break there will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
U.S. Dollar at Risk of Unraveling
By: Guy_Lerner
Currencies
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY) is trading significantly lower this morning, and it is at risk of closing the week below three pivot points as seen on the weekly chart in figure 1.
Figure 1. Dollar Index/ weekly
I discussed the significance of this pattern in the June 19 article, "Very Dangerous Time For Dollar Index". Essentially, this is a very ominous price pattern that portends a high likelihood of a major down draft for the Dollar Index. A weekly close below the third pivot point at 79.46 would make this pattern valid.
If the Dollar Index were to be set on a downward spiral, I think the biggest beneficiaries would be long term Treasury yields and gold. I have been "pounding the table" for higher Treasury yields for months, and this might be another tailwind that sets that ship in motion. Gold has been on the launching pad for a significant and sustainable move in either direction for months, and the Dollar's downdraft might be the thrust to launch gold higher.
Figure 2 shows a concept that I have put forward before, and it is gold's performance relative to a basket of 8 currencies. Those currencies are: 1) Australian Dollar; 2) Canadian Dollar; 3) Swiss Franc; 4) Eurodollar; 5) British Pound; 6) Singaporean Dollar; 7) Japanese Yen; 8) US Dollar. This is a weekly chart. (As an aside, this chart looks different than previous charts I have shown as I now have the calculations correct.) Relative to other currencies gold has yet to break out, but I still like the position that gold is in. The indicator is making higher lows, and a breakout will carry prices a long way.
Currencies
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY) is trading significantly lower this morning, and it is at risk of closing the week below three pivot points as seen on the weekly chart in figure 1.
Figure 1. Dollar Index/ weekly
I discussed the significance of this pattern in the June 19 article, "Very Dangerous Time For Dollar Index". Essentially, this is a very ominous price pattern that portends a high likelihood of a major down draft for the Dollar Index. A weekly close below the third pivot point at 79.46 would make this pattern valid.
If the Dollar Index were to be set on a downward spiral, I think the biggest beneficiaries would be long term Treasury yields and gold. I have been "pounding the table" for higher Treasury yields for months, and this might be another tailwind that sets that ship in motion. Gold has been on the launching pad for a significant and sustainable move in either direction for months, and the Dollar's downdraft might be the thrust to launch gold higher.
Figure 2 shows a concept that I have put forward before, and it is gold's performance relative to a basket of 8 currencies. Those currencies are: 1) Australian Dollar; 2) Canadian Dollar; 3) Swiss Franc; 4) Eurodollar; 5) British Pound; 6) Singaporean Dollar; 7) Japanese Yen; 8) US Dollar. This is a weekly chart. (As an aside, this chart looks different than previous charts I have shown as I now have the calculations correct.) Relative to other currencies gold has yet to break out, but I still like the position that gold is in. The indicator is making higher lows, and a breakout will carry prices a long way.
Gold Mid-Year Seasonal Trend Review July 2009
By: Bill_Downey
Commodities
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDuring the course of the year, it is always good to sit back and review the current markets you’re involved in. In this manner, one would look at the performance not only from a percentage gain or loss basis, but in the field of seasonality as well. In other words, if we are interested in the gold market, we want to see if it is following the typical script in price movement in relation to past years. Keeping an eye on seasonality will alert you to when the best chance for highs and lows to occur during the year.
More important of an indicator that something might be going on is when a commodity does not perform like it usually does during its yearly cycle. Movement that is uncommon can provide for opportunity in the form of rallies and/or corrections (uptrend’s and downtrends.) When we see a commodity rally when it’s seasonally weak, we can ascertain potential underlying strength that has not yet been discounted by the market. The same can be said if a commodity is weak during a time when it should be strong. Keeping an eye on this gives one a good perspective of whether the market is strong, weak, or normal.
How has gold been performing so far this year, and over the past year? Well so far this year, gold peaked in February, went lower into April, rallied in May and into the first week of June, and our largest correction year to date has brought us to the July timeframe. As you can see in the seasonal chart below, gold is following the exact script it usually does in an average year. Therefore, we can categorize gold as in a NORMAL trending fashion thus far this year.
Commodities
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDuring the course of the year, it is always good to sit back and review the current markets you’re involved in. In this manner, one would look at the performance not only from a percentage gain or loss basis, but in the field of seasonality as well. In other words, if we are interested in the gold market, we want to see if it is following the typical script in price movement in relation to past years. Keeping an eye on seasonality will alert you to when the best chance for highs and lows to occur during the year.
More important of an indicator that something might be going on is when a commodity does not perform like it usually does during its yearly cycle. Movement that is uncommon can provide for opportunity in the form of rallies and/or corrections (uptrend’s and downtrends.) When we see a commodity rally when it’s seasonally weak, we can ascertain potential underlying strength that has not yet been discounted by the market. The same can be said if a commodity is weak during a time when it should be strong. Keeping an eye on this gives one a good perspective of whether the market is strong, weak, or normal.
How has gold been performing so far this year, and over the past year? Well so far this year, gold peaked in February, went lower into April, rallied in May and into the first week of June, and our largest correction year to date has brought us to the July timeframe. As you can see in the seasonal chart below, gold is following the exact script it usually does in an average year. Therefore, we can categorize gold as in a NORMAL trending fashion thus far this year.
Peak to Trough Case Shiller and CAR Home Price Declines
By: Mike_Shedlock
Housing-Market
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe following charts were produced by my friend "TC" who has been monitoring California Association of Realtors (CAR) data, DQNews data, and Case-Shiller Data. Although individual cities topped at varying times, the top-10 and top-20 cities peaked in a June-July 2006 timeframe.
CAR and DQNews Data
DQNews Housing Data contains resale single family residences and new homes.
CAR Housing Data only contains resale single family residences
CAR Source: http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/
DQNews Source: http://wwwdqnews.com/
Housing-Market
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe following charts were produced by my friend "TC" who has been monitoring California Association of Realtors (CAR) data, DQNews data, and Case-Shiller Data. Although individual cities topped at varying times, the top-10 and top-20 cities peaked in a June-July 2006 timeframe.
CAR and DQNews Data
DQNews Housing Data contains resale single family residences and new homes.
CAR Housing Data only contains resale single family residences
CAR Source: http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/
DQNews Source: http://wwwdqnews.com/
US Treasury Bear is Back
By: Frederic_Simons
InvestorEducation
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn our last update for the US Treasury Bonds (click here to view), one could observe a strong uptrend in prices.This picture has changed during the last two days as prices have come down significantly, and important price levels have been penetrated to the downside. The line of least resistance has turned to the downside for now. You can see on the following charts that if the price trades for 2 consecutive bars above the green line, rising prices are to be expected. Once the price trades for 2 bars below the red line, you should prepare for falling prices.
After trading below the red line, the 180min Chart on 30 year US Treasuries has turned bearish:
Naturally, the shorter term 3666 Tick chart is also bearish. It would take prices trading above the green line at currently 120'24 to turn the shorter term chart bullish again.
InvestorEducation
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn our last update for the US Treasury Bonds (click here to view), one could observe a strong uptrend in prices.This picture has changed during the last two days as prices have come down significantly, and important price levels have been penetrated to the downside. The line of least resistance has turned to the downside for now. You can see on the following charts that if the price trades for 2 consecutive bars above the green line, rising prices are to be expected. Once the price trades for 2 bars below the red line, you should prepare for falling prices.
After trading below the red line, the 180min Chart on 30 year US Treasuries has turned bearish:
Naturally, the shorter term 3666 Tick chart is also bearish. It would take prices trading above the green line at currently 120'24 to turn the shorter term chart bullish again.
U.S. Stock Market Rally Over; Buy and Hold Still Bad Advice
By: Mike_Shedlock
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJeffrey DeGraaf, the top-ranked technical analyst in Institutional Investor magazine’s poll for the past four years says S&P 500 Rally Poised to End.The 34 percent rebound in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since March shows few hallmarks of a bull market, and stocks will probably stagnate for years, top-ranked analyst Jeffrey deGraaf said.The S&P 500 is at a level it first surpassed in 1997 even after the steepest quarterly advance in a decade, and is down 43 percent from its October 2007 record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The main benchmark for American equities probably will continue to make “no net price progress” for at least two more years, deGraaf said in an interview.
“The market in my best estimation is probably range-bound between roughly 1,000 on the upside and 700 on the downside, but I would put the risk to the downside,” he said. DeGraaf is a senior managing director at ISI Group Inc. in New York and was the top-ranked technical analyst in Institutional Investor magazine’s poll for the past four years.
“Japan from 1992 to 2000 was in what aviators call a phugoid -- which is just this long oscillation in price,” deGraaf said. “It looks to us like there’s a reasonable probability that we’re going to enter into a similar period, with more government intervention and all these things that tend to come about after a bubble, particularly one that’s been driven by credit.”
Long Term Buy And Hold Is Still Bad Advice
I have been saying essentially the same thing as DeGraaf for months. Here is a case in point: Long Term Buy And Hold Is Still Bad Advice. In spite of what you hear from main stream media and self-serving advice from Wall Street, an investment philosophy of long term buy and hold is not what it's cracked up to be. Unfortunately, many boomers headed into retirement are finding that out now, at the worst possible time. Moreover, looking ahead, I doubt the next decade is going to be much better than the last.
Please consider a chart of the Nikkei.
$NIKK - Nikkei Monthly Chart
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJeffrey DeGraaf, the top-ranked technical analyst in Institutional Investor magazine’s poll for the past four years says S&P 500 Rally Poised to End.The 34 percent rebound in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since March shows few hallmarks of a bull market, and stocks will probably stagnate for years, top-ranked analyst Jeffrey deGraaf said.The S&P 500 is at a level it first surpassed in 1997 even after the steepest quarterly advance in a decade, and is down 43 percent from its October 2007 record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The main benchmark for American equities probably will continue to make “no net price progress” for at least two more years, deGraaf said in an interview.
“The market in my best estimation is probably range-bound between roughly 1,000 on the upside and 700 on the downside, but I would put the risk to the downside,” he said. DeGraaf is a senior managing director at ISI Group Inc. in New York and was the top-ranked technical analyst in Institutional Investor magazine’s poll for the past four years.
“Japan from 1992 to 2000 was in what aviators call a phugoid -- which is just this long oscillation in price,” deGraaf said. “It looks to us like there’s a reasonable probability that we’re going to enter into a similar period, with more government intervention and all these things that tend to come about after a bubble, particularly one that’s been driven by credit.”
Long Term Buy And Hold Is Still Bad Advice
I have been saying essentially the same thing as DeGraaf for months. Here is a case in point: Long Term Buy And Hold Is Still Bad Advice. In spite of what you hear from main stream media and self-serving advice from Wall Street, an investment philosophy of long term buy and hold is not what it's cracked up to be. Unfortunately, many boomers headed into retirement are finding that out now, at the worst possible time. Moreover, looking ahead, I doubt the next decade is going to be much better than the last.
Please consider a chart of the Nikkei.
$NIKK - Nikkei Monthly Chart
Dow Jones Index: Possible Clues And Pattern That Could Be Forming On The Daily Chart
By Corey Rosenbloom on July 15, 2009
I’ve tended to focus a lot of my analysis on the S&P 500, but let’s take a step back to look at the Dow Jones Index for possible clues and an interesting pattern that *could* be forming on the daily chart.As much as I hesititate to believe it, there is a possibility that the Dow is forming an expanding triangle or broadening formation, with an upside target near 9,000 (which would be a retest of the January highs).We still have a negative volume divergence and a negative triple-swing momentum divergence which the bulls are going to have to overcome, and I think it will be difficult to do, particularly given the “Summer Seasonality” (stocks tend to experience seasonal weakness in the summer months, or at least a flat, trading range as volatility/volume is expected to decrease).
I’m mainly posting this as a “Hmm. This is interesting” and basing it off the swing highs and lows and the trendlines that originate from the May highs and lows which seems a natural fit.Without effort, price shattered overhead EMA confluence resistance thanks to Intel’s (INTC: 18.05 +1.22 +7.25%) earnings surprise and the market’s reaction to it.
I’ve tended to focus a lot of my analysis on the S&P 500, but let’s take a step back to look at the Dow Jones Index for possible clues and an interesting pattern that *could* be forming on the daily chart.As much as I hesititate to believe it, there is a possibility that the Dow is forming an expanding triangle or broadening formation, with an upside target near 9,000 (which would be a retest of the January highs).We still have a negative volume divergence and a negative triple-swing momentum divergence which the bulls are going to have to overcome, and I think it will be difficult to do, particularly given the “Summer Seasonality” (stocks tend to experience seasonal weakness in the summer months, or at least a flat, trading range as volatility/volume is expected to decrease).
I’m mainly posting this as a “Hmm. This is interesting” and basing it off the swing highs and lows and the trendlines that originate from the May highs and lows which seems a natural fit.Without effort, price shattered overhead EMA confluence resistance thanks to Intel’s (INTC: 18.05 +1.22 +7.25%) earnings surprise and the market’s reaction to it.
Investing In Sin Stocks: How To Oppose Radical Islam In Your Portfolio
By Alexander Green on July 15, 2009
Last month the first ETF adhering to strict Islamic beliefs, Dow Jones Islamic Market International (JVS: 38.74 0.00 0.00%), began trading.Following Shariah law, the index excludes anything close to investing in “sin stocks” or firms that produce or market alcohol, tobacco, gambling, weapons, or pornography.Investors are further assured that the stocks held in the index have nothing to do with borrowing or lending, women’s fashions, cosmetics, modern cinema, popular music, or pork.
Personally, I wouldn’t touch this fund with a barge pole. It is virtually guaranteed to earn sub-par returns.
Here’s why…
Investing in Sin Stocks vs. Socially Responsible Stocks
If you were given the choice six years ago between investing in the environmentally and socially responsible Sierra Club Stock Fund (SCFSX: 0.00 N/A N/A) or investing in sin stocks with the Vice Fund (VICEX: 13.18 +0.19 +1.46%), which invests primarily in tobacco, alcohol, defense and gambling, which would you have chosen?
I’ll give you a hint. Your profits would have been much bigger if your conscience weren’t your guide.
* The Sierra Fund has delivered negative returns over the past six years.
* The Vice Fund has delivered positive performance - and beaten the S&P 500 handily, too.
This is no aberration.
Merrill Lynch recently examined the performance of alcohol, tobacco and casino stocks in all recessions since 1970 and found that while the S&P 500 fell 1.5% on average, sin stocks rose an average 11%.This downturn isn’t shaping up to be any different.Sure, consumers are cutting their spending far more than in past recessions. But history shows that people do not drop their bad habits in hard times.
Rather many people feel an intense need to escape through alcohol, tobacco, or a trip to their local casino.
This is not too surprising.
If a citizen of ancient Greece or Rome were magically transported into the modern era, he would be astounded by the current state of agriculture, transportation, housing, medicine, architecture, technology and general living standards.
Humanity itself, however, would offer few surprises. We remain the flawed human beings we have always been, struggling with the same deadly sins our ancestors wrestled with millennia ago: greed, gluttony, sloth, pride, anger, envy and lust.
Investing in Sin Stocks Through The 7 Deadly Sins
Given this reality, when it comes to investing in sin stocks, four months ago The Oxford Club unveiled its new Seven Deadly Sins Portfolio. It is already up 41%, more than 10 times as much as the S&P 500.
We locked in a 92% profit in the casino stock Wynn Resorts (WYNN: 36.19 +2.39 +7.07%) in 64 days. Our shares of Smith & Wesson (SWHC: 5.95 +0.20 +3.48%) have doubled in less than four months. All but one of our positions are up over 20%.
Why are these vice stocks outstripping the broad market by such a wide margin? One answer is careful security selection.But two other studies out of Yale and Princeton offer a further rationale.
* One study attributes vice stock outperformance to the lack of attention pension and other institutional investors pay to these stocks in order “to maintain an aura of respectability.” (That creates opportunity.)
* The other believes it’s because companies in sin industries benefit from high barriers to entry, thanks to strict regulations and taxation.
These factors are not likely to change.
I’m not endorsing the sin industries, incidentally.
I don’t smoke and I hope my kids never do. I don’t gamble unless the stakes are negligible. And I don’t own a handgun, although I am a supporter of Second Amendment rights.
Why Would Anyone Invest in Sin Stocks?
So why would I consider investing in sin stocks and these types of companies?
* Because my investment portfolio is a vehicle for achieving and maintaining financial independence, not for making grand moral statements.
* Consumers and investors have every right to patronize or own any legal, publicly traded business that creates jobs, pays taxes and allows citizens to enjoy their many freedoms.
* Moreover, you only need look at Afghanistan under the Taliban to see what a society unleavened by political, religion and economic freedoms looks like.
Last month French President Sarkozy made news when he said the burqua - a symbol of the repression and subjugation of women - “is not welcome in France.”
Shariah law isn’t welcome in my portfolio either. And the returns have been superb because of it.
Last month the first ETF adhering to strict Islamic beliefs, Dow Jones Islamic Market International (JVS: 38.74 0.00 0.00%), began trading.Following Shariah law, the index excludes anything close to investing in “sin stocks” or firms that produce or market alcohol, tobacco, gambling, weapons, or pornography.Investors are further assured that the stocks held in the index have nothing to do with borrowing or lending, women’s fashions, cosmetics, modern cinema, popular music, or pork.
Personally, I wouldn’t touch this fund with a barge pole. It is virtually guaranteed to earn sub-par returns.
Here’s why…
Investing in Sin Stocks vs. Socially Responsible Stocks
If you were given the choice six years ago between investing in the environmentally and socially responsible Sierra Club Stock Fund (SCFSX: 0.00 N/A N/A) or investing in sin stocks with the Vice Fund (VICEX: 13.18 +0.19 +1.46%), which invests primarily in tobacco, alcohol, defense and gambling, which would you have chosen?
I’ll give you a hint. Your profits would have been much bigger if your conscience weren’t your guide.
* The Sierra Fund has delivered negative returns over the past six years.
* The Vice Fund has delivered positive performance - and beaten the S&P 500 handily, too.
This is no aberration.
Merrill Lynch recently examined the performance of alcohol, tobacco and casino stocks in all recessions since 1970 and found that while the S&P 500 fell 1.5% on average, sin stocks rose an average 11%.This downturn isn’t shaping up to be any different.Sure, consumers are cutting their spending far more than in past recessions. But history shows that people do not drop their bad habits in hard times.
Rather many people feel an intense need to escape through alcohol, tobacco, or a trip to their local casino.
This is not too surprising.
If a citizen of ancient Greece or Rome were magically transported into the modern era, he would be astounded by the current state of agriculture, transportation, housing, medicine, architecture, technology and general living standards.
Humanity itself, however, would offer few surprises. We remain the flawed human beings we have always been, struggling with the same deadly sins our ancestors wrestled with millennia ago: greed, gluttony, sloth, pride, anger, envy and lust.
Investing in Sin Stocks Through The 7 Deadly Sins
Given this reality, when it comes to investing in sin stocks, four months ago The Oxford Club unveiled its new Seven Deadly Sins Portfolio. It is already up 41%, more than 10 times as much as the S&P 500.
We locked in a 92% profit in the casino stock Wynn Resorts (WYNN: 36.19 +2.39 +7.07%) in 64 days. Our shares of Smith & Wesson (SWHC: 5.95 +0.20 +3.48%) have doubled in less than four months. All but one of our positions are up over 20%.
Why are these vice stocks outstripping the broad market by such a wide margin? One answer is careful security selection.But two other studies out of Yale and Princeton offer a further rationale.
* One study attributes vice stock outperformance to the lack of attention pension and other institutional investors pay to these stocks in order “to maintain an aura of respectability.” (That creates opportunity.)
* The other believes it’s because companies in sin industries benefit from high barriers to entry, thanks to strict regulations and taxation.
These factors are not likely to change.
I’m not endorsing the sin industries, incidentally.
I don’t smoke and I hope my kids never do. I don’t gamble unless the stakes are negligible. And I don’t own a handgun, although I am a supporter of Second Amendment rights.
Why Would Anyone Invest in Sin Stocks?
So why would I consider investing in sin stocks and these types of companies?
* Because my investment portfolio is a vehicle for achieving and maintaining financial independence, not for making grand moral statements.
* Consumers and investors have every right to patronize or own any legal, publicly traded business that creates jobs, pays taxes and allows citizens to enjoy their many freedoms.
* Moreover, you only need look at Afghanistan under the Taliban to see what a society unleavened by political, religion and economic freedoms looks like.
Last month French President Sarkozy made news when he said the burqua - a symbol of the repression and subjugation of women - “is not welcome in France.”
Shariah law isn’t welcome in my portfolio either. And the returns have been superb because of it.
Selling Put Options: How It’s Done & How Easy It Can Be
By Investment U on July 16, 2009
The “buy-and-holders” just got killed again…With the market’s plunge last week, many regular shareholders have seen their portfolios awash with more red numbers.
Tough break for them. But savvy investors know that this offers a great chance to value shop and buy back in. And one of the most effective and profitable investment strategies that you can use in a market like this is one that generates income… no matter what happens.
This can be done by selling put options.
So let me show you a little more about this options trading strategy - how it’s done and how easy it can be for the average investor.
Busting The Myths of Selling Put Options
If you’ve gotten this far, you’re on the right track. Many investors hear the words “put options” and “selling” in the same sentence and head for the exit. Too complex. Too confusing. And downright scary. Or so the myth goes.
Let’s bust that myth right away: Selling put options isn’t difficult to execute. In fact, it’s actually easier than most investment methods.
When you place a put-sell trade:
* You don’t have to buy a stock.
* You don’t have to sell a stock.
* It’s got nothing to do with bonds or currencies.
* And there are no complex parameters to the trade.
Here’s the deal: You’re either going to make money, or you’ll end up investing in a company at a ridiculously low, discounted price.What you try to do is buy stocks for the price you want. And just for trying, you get paid. Think of it like Priceline.com - where customers name the price they want to pay for airfare and hotel rooms - except with stocks. The biggest difference is that you’re getting paid for your time.It works in rising markets… falling markets… flat markets… any market. It’s a regular stock-buying strategy with a profitable twist upfront. Here’s how you can use it…
Selling Put Options In Four Easy Steps
Have you ever wanted to buy a stock but passed because the price is too high for your liking? Most ordinary investors would simply sit on the sidelines and wait for the price to fall to a better level. But smart investors know they can still get in the game by selling a put option on it instead.
Here are the four steps you need to take when selling put options:
* Pick your chosen stock.
* Decide on a lower price, where you’d feel comfortable buying the shares.
* Check the put option prices for that level. For example, if the stock is trading at $20 and you want to buy it for $15, you’d select the $15 strike price and an expiration month.
* You then sell those put options. Since each stock option contract is equivalent to 100 shares, you’d sell five put option contracts if you want to buy 500 shares.
When you enter a trade like this, you’re obligated to buy those shares at your stated strike price by expiration. Keep that in mind when selling the contracts, so you don’t overextend yourself. For example, if you sell one $15 put option contract, you’ll need to have $1,500 on hand by expiration day to cover the cost of the shares ($15 x 100 = $1,500).
Note: You don’t need to have all that money on hand while the trade is open. Your broker will only ask you to keep a fraction of that amount available - known as a “margin requirement.” Consider the trade as a “buy now, pay later” type of deal. You’re putting off paying for the stock until a certain scenario occurs (see below).
In exchange, the option buyer will pay you for each contract you sell while you wait. This is known as a “premium” and is deposited into your trading account. (The farther out the expiration date, the more money you’ll receive when selling the option.) Meanwhile, ordinary investors are waiting for the price to drop without collecting any money.
Okay, then what happens?
On options expiration day, you’ll have two scenarios when selling put options:
* If Your Stock Trades Below $15: For every put option contract you sold, you’ll be obligated to buy 100 shares at $15 each. This is what you wanted - a 25% discount from its $20 price when you executed the trade. Plus, you get to keep the money that the option buyer paid you. The shares will appear in your account on the Monday after option expiration. It will now be a regular long position and you must manage it as you would any other stock. That’s why it’s important you pick a price at which you’re comfortable holding the shares.
* If Your Stock Trades Above $15: The put options will expire worthless. You won’t get to buy the shares at your chosen price, but you will get to keep the money for selling the contracts, just for trying.
So regardless of what happens, you keep the money from selling the put options upfront. Now let’s bust another myth…
But Isn’t Selling Put Options Riskier Than Buying Shares?
Selling put options is no riskier than buying shares outright.
* When you buy shares, the risk is that you lose your entire investment.
* When you sell a put option, you’re obligating yourself to buy shares, too… but at a much lower level than the current share price.
* And if you do end up buying the shares, your risk will be the same as a regular shareholder.
The difference is that nobody pays you cash to buy stocks outright - but they do when you sell put options. Selling puts is just another way to invest in the options market.While some brokers see selling put options as riskier than stocks (and require that you keep more capital reserves on hand), your risk only kicks in if you’re obligated to buy the shares. And even then, you’d simply be long on the stock, with the same risks as with any stock holding.Perhaps the biggest obstacle for most investors is that you need to be “approved” to sell puts. This means that you must apply through your brokerage. It’s a simple process , similar to filling out forms when you opened the account.
An Important Note on Selling Put Options
Many folks don’t know about option trading strategies like put-selling, and Investment U will be working hard to bring you more like this in the coming weeks and months. But we wanted to give you an example of what’s working in the market right now.It’s certainly not as risky or complicated as some people would have you believe.And for those of you who know Lee Lowell, you’ll know he’s not a gambler. In fact, he’s one of the most conservative, risk-averse investors I know.
That said, selling puts isn’t necessarily for everyone. You’ll need to check with your broker to make sure you’re approved to trade options - and specifically, selling put options.
The “buy-and-holders” just got killed again…With the market’s plunge last week, many regular shareholders have seen their portfolios awash with more red numbers.
Tough break for them. But savvy investors know that this offers a great chance to value shop and buy back in. And one of the most effective and profitable investment strategies that you can use in a market like this is one that generates income… no matter what happens.
This can be done by selling put options.
So let me show you a little more about this options trading strategy - how it’s done and how easy it can be for the average investor.
Busting The Myths of Selling Put Options
If you’ve gotten this far, you’re on the right track. Many investors hear the words “put options” and “selling” in the same sentence and head for the exit. Too complex. Too confusing. And downright scary. Or so the myth goes.
Let’s bust that myth right away: Selling put options isn’t difficult to execute. In fact, it’s actually easier than most investment methods.
When you place a put-sell trade:
* You don’t have to buy a stock.
* You don’t have to sell a stock.
* It’s got nothing to do with bonds or currencies.
* And there are no complex parameters to the trade.
Here’s the deal: You’re either going to make money, or you’ll end up investing in a company at a ridiculously low, discounted price.What you try to do is buy stocks for the price you want. And just for trying, you get paid. Think of it like Priceline.com - where customers name the price they want to pay for airfare and hotel rooms - except with stocks. The biggest difference is that you’re getting paid for your time.It works in rising markets… falling markets… flat markets… any market. It’s a regular stock-buying strategy with a profitable twist upfront. Here’s how you can use it…
Selling Put Options In Four Easy Steps
Have you ever wanted to buy a stock but passed because the price is too high for your liking? Most ordinary investors would simply sit on the sidelines and wait for the price to fall to a better level. But smart investors know they can still get in the game by selling a put option on it instead.
Here are the four steps you need to take when selling put options:
* Pick your chosen stock.
* Decide on a lower price, where you’d feel comfortable buying the shares.
* Check the put option prices for that level. For example, if the stock is trading at $20 and you want to buy it for $15, you’d select the $15 strike price and an expiration month.
* You then sell those put options. Since each stock option contract is equivalent to 100 shares, you’d sell five put option contracts if you want to buy 500 shares.
When you enter a trade like this, you’re obligated to buy those shares at your stated strike price by expiration. Keep that in mind when selling the contracts, so you don’t overextend yourself. For example, if you sell one $15 put option contract, you’ll need to have $1,500 on hand by expiration day to cover the cost of the shares ($15 x 100 = $1,500).
Note: You don’t need to have all that money on hand while the trade is open. Your broker will only ask you to keep a fraction of that amount available - known as a “margin requirement.” Consider the trade as a “buy now, pay later” type of deal. You’re putting off paying for the stock until a certain scenario occurs (see below).
In exchange, the option buyer will pay you for each contract you sell while you wait. This is known as a “premium” and is deposited into your trading account. (The farther out the expiration date, the more money you’ll receive when selling the option.) Meanwhile, ordinary investors are waiting for the price to drop without collecting any money.
Okay, then what happens?
On options expiration day, you’ll have two scenarios when selling put options:
* If Your Stock Trades Below $15: For every put option contract you sold, you’ll be obligated to buy 100 shares at $15 each. This is what you wanted - a 25% discount from its $20 price when you executed the trade. Plus, you get to keep the money that the option buyer paid you. The shares will appear in your account on the Monday after option expiration. It will now be a regular long position and you must manage it as you would any other stock. That’s why it’s important you pick a price at which you’re comfortable holding the shares.
* If Your Stock Trades Above $15: The put options will expire worthless. You won’t get to buy the shares at your chosen price, but you will get to keep the money for selling the contracts, just for trying.
So regardless of what happens, you keep the money from selling the put options upfront. Now let’s bust another myth…
But Isn’t Selling Put Options Riskier Than Buying Shares?
Selling put options is no riskier than buying shares outright.
* When you buy shares, the risk is that you lose your entire investment.
* When you sell a put option, you’re obligating yourself to buy shares, too… but at a much lower level than the current share price.
* And if you do end up buying the shares, your risk will be the same as a regular shareholder.
The difference is that nobody pays you cash to buy stocks outright - but they do when you sell put options. Selling puts is just another way to invest in the options market.While some brokers see selling put options as riskier than stocks (and require that you keep more capital reserves on hand), your risk only kicks in if you’re obligated to buy the shares. And even then, you’d simply be long on the stock, with the same risks as with any stock holding.Perhaps the biggest obstacle for most investors is that you need to be “approved” to sell puts. This means that you must apply through your brokerage. It’s a simple process , similar to filling out forms when you opened the account.
An Important Note on Selling Put Options
Many folks don’t know about option trading strategies like put-selling, and Investment U will be working hard to bring you more like this in the coming weeks and months. But we wanted to give you an example of what’s working in the market right now.It’s certainly not as risky or complicated as some people would have you believe.And for those of you who know Lee Lowell, you’ll know he’s not a gambler. In fact, he’s one of the most conservative, risk-averse investors I know.
That said, selling puts isn’t necessarily for everyone. You’ll need to check with your broker to make sure you’re approved to trade options - and specifically, selling put options.
What Lies Ahead For Commodity ETFs
By Tom Lydon on July 16, 2009 | More Posts By Tom Lydon | Author's Website
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it will be holding hearings to determine if limits on speculative positions in energy futures markets should be imposed. What could be the impact on commodity exchange traded funds (ETFs)? Of the energy futures in questions, the CFTC is primarily putting its focus on crude oil, heating oil, natural gas and gasoline. The reason behind this is because of the recent stir up by some stating that speculators are to blame for the volatility in commodities over the last few years, states Eric Fox of Brittain Capital Management LLC for Investopedia.Any new rules could impact ETFs that track an underlying commodity, such as United States Oil Fund (USO: 33.47 +1.36 +4.24%), United States Natural Gas (UNG: 12.26 -0.29 -2.31%) and PowerShares DB Gold (DGL: 33.87 +0.47 +1.41%), to name just a few.
Such commodity ETFs are not governed by the Investment Company Act of 1940 and are considered commodity pools. Although many believe that these ETFs are a straightforward play on commodities that may physically hold the commodity in question, they are in fact composed of futures contracts and seek to match the return of the benchmark commodity.The way that these ETFs work is that the managers of the funds issue creation baskets in increments of a certain number of units and offer them for sale to authorized purchasers, which are generally large brokerage firms. However, sometimes the fund can hit a limit of units and “freeze” trading, in the case of the natural gas ETF. This regulation is being imposed at a time when the Obama administration is trying to increase transparency and regulation of the financial markets.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it will be holding hearings to determine if limits on speculative positions in energy futures markets should be imposed. What could be the impact on commodity exchange traded funds (ETFs)? Of the energy futures in questions, the CFTC is primarily putting its focus on crude oil, heating oil, natural gas and gasoline. The reason behind this is because of the recent stir up by some stating that speculators are to blame for the volatility in commodities over the last few years, states Eric Fox of Brittain Capital Management LLC for Investopedia.Any new rules could impact ETFs that track an underlying commodity, such as United States Oil Fund (USO: 33.47 +1.36 +4.24%), United States Natural Gas (UNG: 12.26 -0.29 -2.31%) and PowerShares DB Gold (DGL: 33.87 +0.47 +1.41%), to name just a few.
Such commodity ETFs are not governed by the Investment Company Act of 1940 and are considered commodity pools. Although many believe that these ETFs are a straightforward play on commodities that may physically hold the commodity in question, they are in fact composed of futures contracts and seek to match the return of the benchmark commodity.The way that these ETFs work is that the managers of the funds issue creation baskets in increments of a certain number of units and offer them for sale to authorized purchasers, which are generally large brokerage firms. However, sometimes the fund can hit a limit of units and “freeze” trading, in the case of the natural gas ETF. This regulation is being imposed at a time when the Obama administration is trying to increase transparency and regulation of the financial markets.
Elliot Wave: Usd/Chf Pattern Completed, Move Lower, Gold; $925 Breakout; Move Near to $1000 per Ounce?
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Usd/Chf Pattern Completed, Move lower
4 Hour Chart trend: Short as long we trade below 1.1021. Main price points: 1.0589, 1.0753, and 1.1021. Looking for: Break lower. Recently we came out with another bearish wave count that may be in play. We are looking for a more complex wave IV) correction on usd/chf pair with a zig-zag in wave (w) and a triangle in wave (y), separated by a wave (x). If this is a correct view, then a break through the lower triangle line and 1.0753 should follow, as the wave e of a triangle pattern seems to be completed.
Gold; $925 Breakout; Move near to $1000 per ounce?
4 Hour Chart trend: Long. Main price points: 904.78, and 989.63. Looking for: Break higher
On gold we are finally back on a four hour chart, after a few weeks of reviewing the other time-frames. Gold is showing some signs of a temporary recovery, if the wave count is correct. It seems the wave B, that we were monitoring on a daily chart recently, is completed, as the market came out with a double zig-zag pattern, separated by a wave x triangle. Prices are also threatening the upper-line of a down-trend channel, where a possible break-out should lead us much higher in the coming weeks, to possibly approach the $1000 per ounce area.
The wave count will be valid so long as 904.78 holds.
Usd/Chf Pattern Completed, Move lower
4 Hour Chart trend: Short as long we trade below 1.1021. Main price points: 1.0589, 1.0753, and 1.1021. Looking for: Break lower. Recently we came out with another bearish wave count that may be in play. We are looking for a more complex wave IV) correction on usd/chf pair with a zig-zag in wave (w) and a triangle in wave (y), separated by a wave (x). If this is a correct view, then a break through the lower triangle line and 1.0753 should follow, as the wave e of a triangle pattern seems to be completed.
Gold; $925 Breakout; Move near to $1000 per ounce?
4 Hour Chart trend: Long. Main price points: 904.78, and 989.63. Looking for: Break higher
On gold we are finally back on a four hour chart, after a few weeks of reviewing the other time-frames. Gold is showing some signs of a temporary recovery, if the wave count is correct. It seems the wave B, that we were monitoring on a daily chart recently, is completed, as the market came out with a double zig-zag pattern, separated by a wave x triangle. Prices are also threatening the upper-line of a down-trend channel, where a possible break-out should lead us much higher in the coming weeks, to possibly approach the $1000 per ounce area.
The wave count will be valid so long as 904.78 holds.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex & DJIA
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.4023, 1.3972 and 1.3943(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3898, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3860. Break of the latter would result in 1.3823. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3790. Continuation will give 1.3767.Today's resistance: - 1.4153 and 1.4176(main). Break would give 1.4198, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4224. Break of the latter would result in 1.4245. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4273. Continuation will give 1.4308.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 93.56, 93.20 and 93.00(main). Break would bring 92.64, where correction is possible. Then 92.26, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 91.80. If a strong impulse, we would see 91.62. Continuation would give 91.36.Today's resistance: - 94.50(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 95.00, where also a correction may be. Then 95.36. If a strong impulse, we would see 95.78. Continuation will give 96.43.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8606.00 and 8550.30(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8514.22, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.62. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8427.25. Continuation will bring 8392.54.Today's resistance: - 8673.74(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8706.50, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8732.35, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8780.62. Continuation would bring 8814.37.
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.4023, 1.3972 and 1.3943(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3898, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3860. Break of the latter would result in 1.3823. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3790. Continuation will give 1.3767.Today's resistance: - 1.4153 and 1.4176(main). Break would give 1.4198, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4224. Break of the latter would result in 1.4245. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4273. Continuation will give 1.4308.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 93.56, 93.20 and 93.00(main). Break would bring 92.64, where correction is possible. Then 92.26, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 91.80. If a strong impulse, we would see 91.62. Continuation would give 91.36.Today's resistance: - 94.50(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 95.00, where also a correction may be. Then 95.36. If a strong impulse, we would see 95.78. Continuation will give 96.43.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8606.00 and 8550.30(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8514.22, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.62. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8427.25. Continuation will bring 8392.54.Today's resistance: - 8673.74(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8706.50, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8732.35, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8780.62. Continuation would bring 8814.37.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Faktor Breakout Double Top Picu Bullish Continuation di IHSG
Market Review
IHSG meroket ke level tertinggi 6 ½ bulan sejak 5 Januari 2009 kemarin, setelah saham dari semua sektor menguat terutama sektor perbankan dan aneka industri. Imbas dari kenaikan harga komoditi (cpo, logam, minyak) ikut memberikan momentum bullish untuk saham komoditi pertambangan dan perkebunan. Penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar ke level terendah 10,107 (terkuat sejak 15 Juni), berkat kuatnya inflow dari suksesnya lelang SUN (14/07) dan antisipasi penerbitan samurai bond $ 1.1 miliar (17/07). Kenaikan indeks saham regional berkat positifnya laporan keuangan Intel, J&J dan Goldman Sachs, mendorong penguatan IHSG. Indeks melejit 66.699 poin (3.24%), ditutup di 2,123.278, nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 4.642 triliun. Investor asing membeli saham sebanyak 1.33 juta lot, senilai Rp 889.3 miliar.
Indeks MSCI Asia-Pasifik menguat kemarin, mendorong indeks ke level tertinggi 1-pekan, setelah penjualan Intel Corp melampaui prediksi analis, Air China Ltd memprediksikan keuntungan yang lebih tinggi dan sebuah brokerage upgrade Coscp Holdings China. Laporan penurunan Foreign Direct Investment China melambat, ikut angkat indeks regional.
IHSG Outlook
Faktor teknikal yang positif (breakout double top 2,116) dan sentimen (inflow) yang sangat kuat, dapat mendorong kenaikan IHSG hingga akhir pekan ini (Alert: rekomendasi buy 16 Top Pick hari Rabu hold hingga Jumat di UBI Weekly Newsletter 13 Juli). Meredanya risk aversion diantara investor global memberikan sentimen positif kepada indeks saham global, memperkuat momentum kenaikan IHSG (strategy sell on rally 2,065-2,116 ditembus, reverse buy target 2,165/2,200). Sejumlah sentimen dari dalam negeri, terutama dari emiten memiliki fundamental solid dan berencana membagikan dividen seperti PGAS, GGRM, SMGR, BUMI dalam waktu dekat, penguatan rupiah (target Rp 9,800/10,000 per USD) karena suksesnya lelang 3 SUN (14/07) senilai Rp 3 triliun (penawaran sebesar Rp 8.2 triliun), mendorong perkiraan investor yang tidak kebagian akan memburu samurai bond milik pemerintah Indonesia senilai US$ 1.1 miliar (17/07), selain paska pilpres dana investor asing yang sebelumnya keluar, masuk kembali ke pasar modal domestik, ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG. Faktor eksternal dari penguatan indeks saham global (indeks DJIA menunjukkan pola bullish reversal), euphoria musim earnings lebih baik dari perkiraan (Goldman Sachs, J&J, Intel) dan kenaikan harga minyak (teknikal oversold; target $ 64/67), dapat angkat IHSG lebih lanjut.
Stock Picks : Potential yield 10%-20%, risk <10%
Hold Buy : BUMI/ENRG/ELTY, BMTR/MNCN, CTRP, INCO, INDF, SMGR, BBCA, BMRI, BBRI, TLKM, ISAT, PTBA,TRUB.
Stock Picks:
* META Buy target Rp 195
* UNTR Buy target Rp 13,500
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia dan AS masih mendapatkan keuntungan dari lebih baik dari perkiraan laporan pendapatan korporasi AS (Goldman Sachs, J&J, Intel) dan lebih baik dari perkiraan data inflasi AS (+0.7% m/m, -1.4% y/y), Empire State Mfng (-0.6 dari -9.4), Industrial Production AS (-0.4% dari -1.2%) dan lebih tinggi dari perkiraan inventory minyak di pekan lalu (-2.8 juta barel dari perkiraan -1.9 juta barel) yang meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap inflasi dan lemahnya ekonomi AS, sehingga mendorong perkiraan AS akan tetap mempertahankan suku bunga hingga akhir tahun ini. Sementara laporan FOMC Minutes dirilis dini hari dan laporan keuangan JP Morgan malam ini, diikuti Bank of America dan Citigroup dirilis hari Jumat, dapat melanjutkan momentum kenaikan indeks regional mendukung pola bullish continuation di pekan mendatang.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal positif dari pola three inside up (high reliability-bullish reversal) setelah sebelumnya membentuk pola bullish harami (revisi dari downside gap tasuki), didukung oleh indikator stochastic & MACD masih berada dalam teritorial bullish, meski ADX yang flat, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan IHSG. Tembusnya double top di 2,116 dimana strategy sell kena stop, reverse buy target 2,154 (trendline resistance)/ 2,164 (61.8% FR 2835-1089)/2,169 (long-term downtrendline). Selama IHSG masih bertahan diatas support 2,020 (trendline support). Potensi kenaikan tetap terbuka ke target 2,220/2,357. Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan koreksi abc telah selesai, mendorong perkiraan kenaikan saat ini merupakan proses wave impulse 1 dalam 5 subwave.
Resistance: 2234.94/2201.44/2167.94/2145.61. PP 2100.94
Support : 2089.78/2078.61/2056.28/2033.94
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2090 - 2,200)
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)
IHSG meroket ke level tertinggi 6 ½ bulan sejak 5 Januari 2009 kemarin, setelah saham dari semua sektor menguat terutama sektor perbankan dan aneka industri. Imbas dari kenaikan harga komoditi (cpo, logam, minyak) ikut memberikan momentum bullish untuk saham komoditi pertambangan dan perkebunan. Penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar ke level terendah 10,107 (terkuat sejak 15 Juni), berkat kuatnya inflow dari suksesnya lelang SUN (14/07) dan antisipasi penerbitan samurai bond $ 1.1 miliar (17/07). Kenaikan indeks saham regional berkat positifnya laporan keuangan Intel, J&J dan Goldman Sachs, mendorong penguatan IHSG. Indeks melejit 66.699 poin (3.24%), ditutup di 2,123.278, nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 4.642 triliun. Investor asing membeli saham sebanyak 1.33 juta lot, senilai Rp 889.3 miliar.
Indeks MSCI Asia-Pasifik menguat kemarin, mendorong indeks ke level tertinggi 1-pekan, setelah penjualan Intel Corp melampaui prediksi analis, Air China Ltd memprediksikan keuntungan yang lebih tinggi dan sebuah brokerage upgrade Coscp Holdings China. Laporan penurunan Foreign Direct Investment China melambat, ikut angkat indeks regional.
IHSG Outlook
Faktor teknikal yang positif (breakout double top 2,116) dan sentimen (inflow) yang sangat kuat, dapat mendorong kenaikan IHSG hingga akhir pekan ini (Alert: rekomendasi buy 16 Top Pick hari Rabu hold hingga Jumat di UBI Weekly Newsletter 13 Juli). Meredanya risk aversion diantara investor global memberikan sentimen positif kepada indeks saham global, memperkuat momentum kenaikan IHSG (strategy sell on rally 2,065-2,116 ditembus, reverse buy target 2,165/2,200). Sejumlah sentimen dari dalam negeri, terutama dari emiten memiliki fundamental solid dan berencana membagikan dividen seperti PGAS, GGRM, SMGR, BUMI dalam waktu dekat, penguatan rupiah (target Rp 9,800/10,000 per USD) karena suksesnya lelang 3 SUN (14/07) senilai Rp 3 triliun (penawaran sebesar Rp 8.2 triliun), mendorong perkiraan investor yang tidak kebagian akan memburu samurai bond milik pemerintah Indonesia senilai US$ 1.1 miliar (17/07), selain paska pilpres dana investor asing yang sebelumnya keluar, masuk kembali ke pasar modal domestik, ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG. Faktor eksternal dari penguatan indeks saham global (indeks DJIA menunjukkan pola bullish reversal), euphoria musim earnings lebih baik dari perkiraan (Goldman Sachs, J&J, Intel) dan kenaikan harga minyak (teknikal oversold; target $ 64/67), dapat angkat IHSG lebih lanjut.
Stock Picks : Potential yield 10%-20%, risk <10%
Hold Buy : BUMI/ENRG/ELTY, BMTR/MNCN, CTRP, INCO, INDF, SMGR, BBCA, BMRI, BBRI, TLKM, ISAT, PTBA,TRUB.
Stock Picks:
* META Buy target Rp 195
* UNTR Buy target Rp 13,500
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia dan AS masih mendapatkan keuntungan dari lebih baik dari perkiraan laporan pendapatan korporasi AS (Goldman Sachs, J&J, Intel) dan lebih baik dari perkiraan data inflasi AS (+0.7% m/m, -1.4% y/y), Empire State Mfng (-0.6 dari -9.4), Industrial Production AS (-0.4% dari -1.2%) dan lebih tinggi dari perkiraan inventory minyak di pekan lalu (-2.8 juta barel dari perkiraan -1.9 juta barel) yang meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap inflasi dan lemahnya ekonomi AS, sehingga mendorong perkiraan AS akan tetap mempertahankan suku bunga hingga akhir tahun ini. Sementara laporan FOMC Minutes dirilis dini hari dan laporan keuangan JP Morgan malam ini, diikuti Bank of America dan Citigroup dirilis hari Jumat, dapat melanjutkan momentum kenaikan indeks regional mendukung pola bullish continuation di pekan mendatang.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal positif dari pola three inside up (high reliability-bullish reversal) setelah sebelumnya membentuk pola bullish harami (revisi dari downside gap tasuki), didukung oleh indikator stochastic & MACD masih berada dalam teritorial bullish, meski ADX yang flat, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan IHSG. Tembusnya double top di 2,116 dimana strategy sell kena stop, reverse buy target 2,154 (trendline resistance)/ 2,164 (61.8% FR 2835-1089)/2,169 (long-term downtrendline). Selama IHSG masih bertahan diatas support 2,020 (trendline support). Potensi kenaikan tetap terbuka ke target 2,220/2,357. Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan koreksi abc telah selesai, mendorong perkiraan kenaikan saat ini merupakan proses wave impulse 1 dalam 5 subwave.
Resistance: 2234.94/2201.44/2167.94/2145.61. PP 2100.94
Support : 2089.78/2078.61/2056.28/2033.94
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2090 - 2,200)
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)
Faktro Sentimen & Teknikal DUkung Potensi Kenaikan Regional
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei berhasil rebound kemarin dan mengakhiri kejatuhannya yang telah berlangsung selama 9 hari. Penguatan indeks itu terjadi berkat laju saham bank, otomotif dan eksportir. Indeks Nikkei ditutup menguat 211,48 poin, atau 2,34%, menjadi 9.261,81. Sedangkan indeks Topix menguat 1,9% ke 868,57.
Indeks Nikkei diperkirakan akan melanjutkan kenaikannya hari ini, dimana masih positifnya saham-saham di bursa Wall Street dan penguatan dollar terhadap yen. Sementara itu, penguatan indeks Nikkei turut dipicu oleh membaiknya laporan keuangan Intel & Goldman Sachs, laporan ini memberi angin segar bagi pelaku pasar di tengah upaya pemulihan resesi.
Di chart daily, Nikkei menunjukkan trend bearish dari pola downtrend channel dan bearish continuation, diikuti candle hanging man, ADX trending up, stochastic dan MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan kenaikan terbatas. Resistance berada di 9391 (upper channel)/9471 (10-day MA). Support berada di 9284 (middle channel)/9093 (lower channel). Perkiraan range hari ini 9250-9450. Rekomendasi : Buy 9090 target 9290 stop 100p. Hold Buy 9300 & buy break 9480 target 9700 stop 100p, Buy 8900 target 9300 stop 100p, Sell 9450 target 9200 stop 50p. Chart SSIU9 Daily
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi ditutup menguat kemarin, berkat penguatan saham bank dan baja. Namun penguatan indeks terpangkas oleh kejatuhan saham produsen kapal dan OCI. Indeks Kospi ditutup menguat 7,44 poin, atau 0,54%, di 1.385,56, setelah sempat menguat 1,7%. Indeks tersebut kemarin mencatat penurunan harian terbesar dalam 4 bulan terakhir.
Indeks Kospi masih menggeliat hari ini, dipicu saham bank dan teknologi setelah bursa Wall Street semalam ditutup menguat untuk kedua kalinya. Saham KB Financial Group dan Samsung Electronics akan pimpin kenaikan setelah saham sejenis di AS secara mengejutkan mencatat laba pada kuartal kedua tahun ini.
Dalam chart daily, indeks menunjukkan pola ascending triangle dan pola rising window setelah sebelumnya menunjukkan pola bullish reversal, didukung kondisi stochastic dead cross, MACD divergence dan ADX yang mengalami penurunan, seharusnya masih mendorong perkiraan keaikan terbatas hari ini. Resistance berada di 186.10 (upper channel), Support di 178.25/15.50 (lower channel). Rekomendasi Sell 184.50 & 186 target 179.00 stop 100p, buy 178.50 target 181.00, buy break 181.00 target 183.30 stop 100p. Buy break 185.00 target 186.00 stop 100p. Sell 180.(+250-100p)
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)
Indeks Hang Seng kemarin berhasil menguat tajam seiring saham keuangan Wall Street rally berkat pernyataan positif seorang analis mengenai sektor keuangan AS. Indeks Hang Seng ditutup melonjak 631,10 poin, atau 3,7%, menjadi 17.885,73.
Indeks Hang Seng hari ini mencoba kembali jajaki area 18.000, menyusul sentimen positif yang masih menghinggapi indeks regional Asia dan AS berkat laporan keuangan Goldman Sachs dan Intel Corp AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar. Namun, potensi penguatan kemungkinan dapat terbatasi setelah data ekonomi AS memicu kekhawatiran pemulihan ekonomi AS di pertengahan tahun kedua akan lemah, karena Retail Sales AS bulan Juni meski tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar sebesar 0.6%.
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam pola downtrend channel meski menunjukkan pola candle high wave (neutral continuation) didukung oleh ADX terkoreksi, stochastic bearish, MACD netral seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Resistance di 18799/18401. Support di 17874/17630. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave koreksi iv dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell 18400 target 17800 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy 17980 target 18300 stop 100 poin. Buy 17.100 target 17390. buy 16700 target 1739 stop 100p. sell break 16600 target 16350, Sell 18620 target 18250 stop 100p. (+200+0p) Chart HSIN9 Daily
Indeks Nikkei berhasil rebound kemarin dan mengakhiri kejatuhannya yang telah berlangsung selama 9 hari. Penguatan indeks itu terjadi berkat laju saham bank, otomotif dan eksportir. Indeks Nikkei ditutup menguat 211,48 poin, atau 2,34%, menjadi 9.261,81. Sedangkan indeks Topix menguat 1,9% ke 868,57.
Indeks Nikkei diperkirakan akan melanjutkan kenaikannya hari ini, dimana masih positifnya saham-saham di bursa Wall Street dan penguatan dollar terhadap yen. Sementara itu, penguatan indeks Nikkei turut dipicu oleh membaiknya laporan keuangan Intel & Goldman Sachs, laporan ini memberi angin segar bagi pelaku pasar di tengah upaya pemulihan resesi.
Di chart daily, Nikkei menunjukkan trend bearish dari pola downtrend channel dan bearish continuation, diikuti candle hanging man, ADX trending up, stochastic dan MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan kenaikan terbatas. Resistance berada di 9391 (upper channel)/9471 (10-day MA). Support berada di 9284 (middle channel)/9093 (lower channel). Perkiraan range hari ini 9250-9450. Rekomendasi : Buy 9090 target 9290 stop 100p. Hold Buy 9300 & buy break 9480 target 9700 stop 100p, Buy 8900 target 9300 stop 100p, Sell 9450 target 9200 stop 50p. Chart SSIU9 Daily
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi ditutup menguat kemarin, berkat penguatan saham bank dan baja. Namun penguatan indeks terpangkas oleh kejatuhan saham produsen kapal dan OCI. Indeks Kospi ditutup menguat 7,44 poin, atau 0,54%, di 1.385,56, setelah sempat menguat 1,7%. Indeks tersebut kemarin mencatat penurunan harian terbesar dalam 4 bulan terakhir.
Indeks Kospi masih menggeliat hari ini, dipicu saham bank dan teknologi setelah bursa Wall Street semalam ditutup menguat untuk kedua kalinya. Saham KB Financial Group dan Samsung Electronics akan pimpin kenaikan setelah saham sejenis di AS secara mengejutkan mencatat laba pada kuartal kedua tahun ini.
Dalam chart daily, indeks menunjukkan pola ascending triangle dan pola rising window setelah sebelumnya menunjukkan pola bullish reversal, didukung kondisi stochastic dead cross, MACD divergence dan ADX yang mengalami penurunan, seharusnya masih mendorong perkiraan keaikan terbatas hari ini. Resistance berada di 186.10 (upper channel), Support di 178.25/15.50 (lower channel). Rekomendasi Sell 184.50 & 186 target 179.00 stop 100p, buy 178.50 target 181.00, buy break 181.00 target 183.30 stop 100p. Buy break 185.00 target 186.00 stop 100p. Sell 180.(+250-100p)
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)
Indeks Hang Seng kemarin berhasil menguat tajam seiring saham keuangan Wall Street rally berkat pernyataan positif seorang analis mengenai sektor keuangan AS. Indeks Hang Seng ditutup melonjak 631,10 poin, atau 3,7%, menjadi 17.885,73.
Indeks Hang Seng hari ini mencoba kembali jajaki area 18.000, menyusul sentimen positif yang masih menghinggapi indeks regional Asia dan AS berkat laporan keuangan Goldman Sachs dan Intel Corp AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar. Namun, potensi penguatan kemungkinan dapat terbatasi setelah data ekonomi AS memicu kekhawatiran pemulihan ekonomi AS di pertengahan tahun kedua akan lemah, karena Retail Sales AS bulan Juni meski tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar sebesar 0.6%.
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam pola downtrend channel meski menunjukkan pola candle high wave (neutral continuation) didukung oleh ADX terkoreksi, stochastic bearish, MACD netral seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Resistance di 18799/18401. Support di 17874/17630. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave koreksi iv dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell 18400 target 17800 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy 17980 target 18300 stop 100 poin. Buy 17.100 target 17390. buy 16700 target 1739 stop 100p. sell break 16600 target 16350, Sell 18620 target 18250 stop 100p. (+200+0p) Chart HSIN9 Daily
The Big Well Seasoned 2009 Summer Feast Of The Market Bears, Tasting Right Or Too Perfect?
By: Eric_Chevrette
Stock-Markets
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThese days a big load of emails, some of them originating from big names in the field of “market analysis”, did hit my mailbox trying to convince me that the times were especially dangerous for stock market investors; likewise, you may have come across and even read some of these many articles exhaling the same bearish tone for the rest of the summer.I guess the same did happen to you, so maybe it would be the right time to review the MAIN argument raised in these shocking mails; as a matter of fact, it is now pointed out by most analysts that US stock markets would display some specific patterns known from repeated past experience to pose a serious threat of a likely swift slide. Well, a quick look at the NYSE Composite should make you grasp within seconds into which emotional direction these analysts want to drag you down…...
Chart #1
Yes, no possible doubt, the US market is displaying a clean H&S pattern, and as even beginners would know, that specific shape is a terrible threat, especially once the neckline has been broken to the downside: with a “head” claiming 600 NYSE points from the neckline, it is now rather easy to find experts warning you that the NYSE Composite would be heading for 5750-600 = 5150, still a total loss of 17.6% from the June tops. As to the more famous SPX index, also displaying the same visual “threat”, it would possibly slide down 70 points (950-880 = 70) below its own “neckline”, that would be a target down to 890-70 = 820, still a total 13.7% loss from its June tops around 950 (we did feature the NYSE Composite instead of the more famous SPX with chart #1 because the NYSE is truly GLOBAL thus more relevant than the SPX; indeed, you would rarely expect the appropriate answers to be found in the charts which the crowd is feverishly staring at).
Well, no matter what their other more or less serious fundamental and/or technical grounds might be for growing bearish about US stocks, these hot analysts should tell you ALL about this massive H&S threat: as a matter of fact, it is NOT AT ALL just a US threat, because it is merely a GLOBAL “threat”. The easiest way for you to become aware how GLOBAL the H&S threat has now become is to go at once for a fast “world tour” with charts #2 to 12.
Commodity Research Bureau Index
Stock-Markets
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThese days a big load of emails, some of them originating from big names in the field of “market analysis”, did hit my mailbox trying to convince me that the times were especially dangerous for stock market investors; likewise, you may have come across and even read some of these many articles exhaling the same bearish tone for the rest of the summer.I guess the same did happen to you, so maybe it would be the right time to review the MAIN argument raised in these shocking mails; as a matter of fact, it is now pointed out by most analysts that US stock markets would display some specific patterns known from repeated past experience to pose a serious threat of a likely swift slide. Well, a quick look at the NYSE Composite should make you grasp within seconds into which emotional direction these analysts want to drag you down…...
Chart #1
Yes, no possible doubt, the US market is displaying a clean H&S pattern, and as even beginners would know, that specific shape is a terrible threat, especially once the neckline has been broken to the downside: with a “head” claiming 600 NYSE points from the neckline, it is now rather easy to find experts warning you that the NYSE Composite would be heading for 5750-600 = 5150, still a total loss of 17.6% from the June tops. As to the more famous SPX index, also displaying the same visual “threat”, it would possibly slide down 70 points (950-880 = 70) below its own “neckline”, that would be a target down to 890-70 = 820, still a total 13.7% loss from its June tops around 950 (we did feature the NYSE Composite instead of the more famous SPX with chart #1 because the NYSE is truly GLOBAL thus more relevant than the SPX; indeed, you would rarely expect the appropriate answers to be found in the charts which the crowd is feverishly staring at).
Well, no matter what their other more or less serious fundamental and/or technical grounds might be for growing bearish about US stocks, these hot analysts should tell you ALL about this massive H&S threat: as a matter of fact, it is NOT AT ALL just a US threat, because it is merely a GLOBAL “threat”. The easiest way for you to become aware how GLOBAL the H&S threat has now become is to go at once for a fast “world tour” with charts #2 to 12.
Commodity Research Bureau Index
Renewed Pressure Forthcoming for Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Commodities
My pattern work in nearby crude oil argues for more weakness after this little bounce off of the $58.00 area (into the $62.50-$63.00 area max). If weakness resumes as anticipated, then oil should head for new reaction lows in the $55-$53 target zone to complete the first downleg in the aftermath of the recovery rally from the January low at $32.70 to the June high at $73.23.
Let’s notice that both the weekly momentum (relative strength) and weekly stochastics are pointed sharply lower, which is a warning signal that renewed pressure should be forthcoming in oil prices – and the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) in the near future.
Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of
Commodities
My pattern work in nearby crude oil argues for more weakness after this little bounce off of the $58.00 area (into the $62.50-$63.00 area max). If weakness resumes as anticipated, then oil should head for new reaction lows in the $55-$53 target zone to complete the first downleg in the aftermath of the recovery rally from the January low at $32.70 to the June high at $73.23.
Let’s notice that both the weekly momentum (relative strength) and weekly stochastics are pointed sharply lower, which is a warning signal that renewed pressure should be forthcoming in oil prices – and the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) in the near future.
Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of
Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee: We still maintain its bearish bias till USD/INR stays above 48.40-50 (downward trendline) on a closing basis. It is headed towards 50 and higher..We are anticipating further weakness in commodities & stock markets across the globe to the extent of 7-8 percent on an average. Risk aversion being the prime reason. Bearish.(USD/INR : 48.75)
Euro :Euro maintains bearishness until it has 2 closing above the short term trendline of 1.41. Look for a break of 1.38 soon to target 1.3450. Look at opportunities to go short. Bearish(Eur/Usd:1.3980)
Sterling :Sterling maintains clear bearish bias till it holds below 1.6400 levels targetting 1.60 and next target 1.57. Look at opportnuities to go short. (Gbp/Usd: 1.6324) Bearish.
Yen : Yen reached our TARGET of 92. Despite a bout of fresh dollar weakness across the majors like Euro and Pound , Yen maintained its strength across the dollar SHOWING SIGNS OF RISK AVERSION . Target 90 and lower. Go long at Yen at upswings .(USD/JPY : 93.53 ) Bullish
Aud :Aud remains bearish since we still maintain sell off in gold and crude . Look for short opportunities once we again see a bout of risk aversionTarget 0.7500 Bearish (Aud/Usd: 0.7940).
Gold : Gold almost reached our TARGET OF 900 dollars and bounced back again to $ 927 and we maintain bearishness bias .Still bearish for a target of 875 dollars.(Gold- $925.80). Bearish.
Dollar Index : Dollar index extends the rebound from 79.56 and is set to take on 80.94. We're anticipating a break of 80.94 resistance to signal resumption of till 82.62 (38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 78.93 at 82.64). (DI- 80.10) Bullish
Daily Forex Technicals |
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3943, 1.3898 and 1.3860(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3823, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3790. Break of the latter would result in 1.3767. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3740. Continuation will give 1.3726 and 1.3684. Today's resistance: - 1.4027 and 1.4050(main). Break would give 1.4077, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4096. Break of the latter would result in 1.4136. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4153. Continuation will give 1.4176.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 93.00, 92.64, 92.26 and 91.80(main). Break would bring 91.62, where correction is possible. Then 91.36, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 91.14. If a strong impulse, we would see 90.86. Continuation would give 90.47 and 90.21. Today's resistance: - 93.88, 94.27 and 94.50(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 95.00, where also a correction may be. Then 95.36. If a strong impulse, we would see 95.78. Continuation will give 96.43.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8302.43 and 8271.28(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8250.00, where correction also can be. Then follows 8212.46. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8184.37. Continuation will bring 8156.20. Today's resistance: - 8376.18(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8413.20, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8436.50, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8457.40. Continuation would bring 8494.70.
Rupee: We still maintain its bearish bias till USD/INR stays above 48.40-50 (downward trendline) on a closing basis. It is headed towards 50 and higher..We are anticipating further weakness in commodities & stock markets across the globe to the extent of 7-8 percent on an average. Risk aversion being the prime reason. Bearish.(USD/INR : 48.75)
Euro :Euro maintains bearishness until it has 2 closing above the short term trendline of 1.41. Look for a break of 1.38 soon to target 1.3450. Look at opportunities to go short. Bearish(Eur/Usd:1.3980)
Sterling :Sterling maintains clear bearish bias till it holds below 1.6400 levels targetting 1.60 and next target 1.57. Look at opportnuities to go short. (Gbp/Usd: 1.6324) Bearish.
Yen : Yen reached our TARGET of 92. Despite a bout of fresh dollar weakness across the majors like Euro and Pound , Yen maintained its strength across the dollar SHOWING SIGNS OF RISK AVERSION . Target 90 and lower. Go long at Yen at upswings .(USD/JPY : 93.53 ) Bullish
Aud :Aud remains bearish since we still maintain sell off in gold and crude . Look for short opportunities once we again see a bout of risk aversionTarget 0.7500 Bearish (Aud/Usd: 0.7940).
Gold : Gold almost reached our TARGET OF 900 dollars and bounced back again to $ 927 and we maintain bearishness bias .Still bearish for a target of 875 dollars.(Gold- $925.80). Bearish.
Dollar Index : Dollar index extends the rebound from 79.56 and is set to take on 80.94. We're anticipating a break of 80.94 resistance to signal resumption of till 82.62 (38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 78.93 at 82.64). (DI- 80.10) Bullish
Daily Forex Technicals |
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3943, 1.3898 and 1.3860(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3823, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3790. Break of the latter would result in 1.3767. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3740. Continuation will give 1.3726 and 1.3684. Today's resistance: - 1.4027 and 1.4050(main). Break would give 1.4077, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4096. Break of the latter would result in 1.4136. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4153. Continuation will give 1.4176.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 93.00, 92.64, 92.26 and 91.80(main). Break would bring 91.62, where correction is possible. Then 91.36, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 91.14. If a strong impulse, we would see 90.86. Continuation would give 90.47 and 90.21. Today's resistance: - 93.88, 94.27 and 94.50(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 95.00, where also a correction may be. Then 95.36. If a strong impulse, we would see 95.78. Continuation will give 96.43.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8302.43 and 8271.28(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8250.00, where correction also can be. Then follows 8212.46. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8184.37. Continuation will bring 8156.20. Today's resistance: - 8376.18(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8413.20, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8436.50, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8457.40. Continuation would bring 8494.70.
Asian Stocks Face 3rd-Quarter ‘Correction’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks face a “correction” this quarter, led by a drop in Indonesia, the Philippines and China, amid concerns that a recovery in the global economy will be delayed, according to BNP Paribas. The MSCI Asia-excluding Japan Index may fall to 307, which is one standard deviation below its average price to book value, while its 100-day moving average yields a target of 335, BNP analysts Clive McDonnell and Anando Maitra wrote in a report today. By combining the two technical factors, the analysts derived a forecast of 321 for the index, representing a 13 percent decline from yesterday’s close.The MSCI regional index has dropped 7.7 percent since its high this year on June 1 on concerns valuations are excessive. Even after the drop, the measure has gained 29 percent this year, rebounding from a record 54 percent slump in 2008.
The forecast “provides a useful guide for investors in assessing at what levels they should become aggressive buyers of markets,” the analysts wrote. “Catalysts for the correction include” a flattening of the yield curve in China, gains in the U.S. dollar and second-quarter earnings prospects, they added.A stronger dollar may slow fund flows to international stocks and hurt share prices in Asia, the report said. Investors withdrew $365 million from funds investing in Asia excluding Japan in the week ended July 8, according to EPFR Global.
H Shares
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index may be one of the worst performers in Asia this quarter, with the measure tracking Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong falling 21 percent to 8,103, the analysts wrote. The stocks are commonly known as H shares.Indonesia faces the largest drop this quarter, with the Jakarta Composite Index poised to fall to 1,399, the analysts wrote. That’s a 31 percent slump from yesterday’s close. The measure is the fourth-best performer in the world this year after a 49 percent gain.In the Philippines, the benchmark stock index may also slide 28 percent to 1,796, BNP Paribas said.A “dramatic flattening” in the Chinese yield curve is expected as the market prices in a faster increase in the rate on two-year interest-rate swap rate than that of the five-year swap. BNP said the trend signaled that the nation’s central bank has started to tighten its monetary policy.
The forecast “provides a useful guide for investors in assessing at what levels they should become aggressive buyers of markets,” the analysts wrote. “Catalysts for the correction include” a flattening of the yield curve in China, gains in the U.S. dollar and second-quarter earnings prospects, they added.A stronger dollar may slow fund flows to international stocks and hurt share prices in Asia, the report said. Investors withdrew $365 million from funds investing in Asia excluding Japan in the week ended July 8, according to EPFR Global.
H Shares
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index may be one of the worst performers in Asia this quarter, with the measure tracking Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong falling 21 percent to 8,103, the analysts wrote. The stocks are commonly known as H shares.Indonesia faces the largest drop this quarter, with the Jakarta Composite Index poised to fall to 1,399, the analysts wrote. That’s a 31 percent slump from yesterday’s close. The measure is the fourth-best performer in the world this year after a 49 percent gain.In the Philippines, the benchmark stock index may also slide 28 percent to 1,796, BNP Paribas said.A “dramatic flattening” in the Chinese yield curve is expected as the market prices in a faster increase in the rate on two-year interest-rate swap rate than that of the five-year swap. BNP said the trend signaled that the nation’s central bank has started to tighten its monetary policy.
S&P 500 Rally Poised to End, DeGraaf Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The 34 percent rebound in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since March shows few hallmarks of a bull market, and stocks will probably stagnate for years, top- ranked analyst Jeffrey deGraaf said. The S&P 500 is at a level it first surpassed in 1997 even after the steepest quarterly advance in a decade, and is down 43 percent from its October 2007 record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The main benchmark for American equities probably will continue to make “no net price progress” for at least two more years, deGraaf said in an interview. The index rose to 905.84 yesterday.“The market in my best estimation is probably range-bound between roughly 1,000 on the upside and 700 on the downside, but I would put the risk to the downside,” he said. DeGraaf is a senior managing director at ISI Group Inc. in New York and was the top-ranked technical analyst in Institutional Investor magazine’s poll for the past four years. Technical analysts base predictions on price and volume charts.
Investors who took deGraaf’s advice when the advance began were rewarded. In a Bloomberg Television interview on March 13, he described the gain as the “best bear-market rally that we’ve seen during this bear market.” The S&P 500, which had advanced 11 percent from the March 9 low as of that date, climbed another 26 percent to a seven-month high of 946.21 on June 12.Since then, there’s been “a definite decrease or decay in the position of the bulls” as measured by volume and the numbers of advancing and declining shares, deGraaf said. Since May, volume on the New York Stock Exchange has averaged 1.24 million shares a day, compared with 1.63 billion a day during the previous 12 weeks.
‘Trading Ranges’
At the same time, drops in the prices of some commodities and strength in the Japanese yen relative to higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar indicate that investor confidence in the global growth outlook is waning, deGraaf said.The aftermath of a credit crisis such as last year’s, in which banks globally lost $1.47 trillion as debt default rates climbed, creates conditions that “have a tendency to foster more trading ranges than they do trends,” deGraaf said. Declining worker productivity is one such obstacle, he said.The U.S. stock market may follow a path similar to Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average from 1992 to 2000, he said. The average fell 40 percent during that span even as it posted five quarterly advances of at least 10 percent.
“Japan from 1992 to 2000 was in what aviators call a phugoid -- which is just this long oscillation in price,” deGraaf said. “It looks to us like there’s a reasonable probability that we’re going to enter into a similar period, with more government intervention and all these things that tend to come about after a bubble, particularly one that’s been driven by credit.”
Investors who took deGraaf’s advice when the advance began were rewarded. In a Bloomberg Television interview on March 13, he described the gain as the “best bear-market rally that we’ve seen during this bear market.” The S&P 500, which had advanced 11 percent from the March 9 low as of that date, climbed another 26 percent to a seven-month high of 946.21 on June 12.Since then, there’s been “a definite decrease or decay in the position of the bulls” as measured by volume and the numbers of advancing and declining shares, deGraaf said. Since May, volume on the New York Stock Exchange has averaged 1.24 million shares a day, compared with 1.63 billion a day during the previous 12 weeks.
‘Trading Ranges’
At the same time, drops in the prices of some commodities and strength in the Japanese yen relative to higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar indicate that investor confidence in the global growth outlook is waning, deGraaf said.The aftermath of a credit crisis such as last year’s, in which banks globally lost $1.47 trillion as debt default rates climbed, creates conditions that “have a tendency to foster more trading ranges than they do trends,” deGraaf said. Declining worker productivity is one such obstacle, he said.The U.S. stock market may follow a path similar to Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average from 1992 to 2000, he said. The average fell 40 percent during that span even as it posted five quarterly advances of at least 10 percent.
“Japan from 1992 to 2000 was in what aviators call a phugoid -- which is just this long oscillation in price,” deGraaf said. “It looks to us like there’s a reasonable probability that we’re going to enter into a similar period, with more government intervention and all these things that tend to come about after a bubble, particularly one that’s been driven by credit.”
Fase Konsolidasi di IHSG Dukung Strategy "Sell On Rally"
Market Review
IHSG berhasil rebound pada hari Selasa, berkat kenaikan kenaikan saham di sektor pertambngan, finansial dan konsumer mengikuti kenaikan indeks saham Wall Street dan regional kemarin. Sentimen positif dari kenaikan saham perbankan di AS setelah analis Meredith Whitney upgrade target dan rating saham Goldman Sachs AS dan mengatakan saham bank AS akan rally 15%, memberikan sentimen positif kepada saham perbankan lokal. Di tengah musim earning emiten di AS yang dapat mengangkat sentimen indeks glogal yang telah terpuruk dalam beberapa hari terakhir. Harga minyak yang kembali bertahan di atas US$ 60/barel, mendorong kenaikan saham komoditi kemarin. Indeks melejit 36.44 poin (1.804%), ditutup di 2,056.579, nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 2.918 triliun, lebih rendah dari hari sebelumnya.
Indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik menguat 2.5% kemarin, mendorong indeks MSCI Asia Pasific mengalami kenaikan terbesar dalam 2 bulan, karena Singapura meningkatkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini, fund manager Barton Biggs mengatakan sejumlah pasar di Asia masih menarik” dan JP Morgan upgrade saham KB Financial Grup Inc Korsel.
IHSG Outlook
Potensi kenaikan IHSG pada hari ini diperkirakan masih terbatas, karena IHSG masih berada dalam fase konsolidasi “wait & see” menghadapi hasil kabinet bayangan dan musim earning emiten lokal untuk kuartal kedua yang dimulai di bulan Agustus. Sementara trend penurunan harga komoditi (target $ 54.8 selama di bawah $ 61.6) dan trend penurunan indeks saham regional Asia dan AS (formasi bullish reversal) masih membebani kinerja IHSG yang seharusnya menguat paska pilpres 8 Juli dari laporan analis asing melihat positifnya perkiran kemenangan SBY-Boediono dalam pilpres 8 Juli lalu, dimana dapat memancing masuknya dana masuk dari luar negeri. Meski pembagian dividen sejumlah saham unggulan (PGAS, GGRM, SMGR dan BUMI) dalam 1-2 pekan ini, seharusnya masih dapat menopang kinerja IHSG. Kondisi rupiah yang masih stabil di kisaran Rp 10,200 terhadap dolar, terutama ditopang oleh inflow ke pasar modal setelah lelang SUN yang jatuh tempo tahun 2010/2022/2024/2028 kemarin menghasillkan Rp 3 triliun, lebih besar dari rencana Rp 2 triliun dan laporan rencana pemerintah untuk menerbitkan samurai bond senilai 100 miliar yen (US$ 1.1 miliar) pada 17 Juli, seharusnya dapat menopang kinerja rupiah karena dapat memberikan imbas positif kepada IHSG. Musim earnings bank di AS (JP Morgan, Citigroup) dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan IHSG pekan ini.
Stock Picks : Potential yield 10%%, risk <5%
Buy : BUMI / ENRG / ELTY, BMTR / MNCN, CTRP, INCO, INDF, SMGR, BBCA, BMRI, BBRI, TLKM, ISAT, PTBA, TRUB, PGAS, HEXA.
Global Outlook
Potensi penguatan Indeks regional Asia dan AS diperkirakan terbatas setelah data ekonomi AS memicu kekhawatiran pemulihan ekonomi AS di pertengahan tahun kedua akan lemah, karena Retail Sales AS bulan Juni meski tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar sebesar 0.6%, tetapi penjualan di luar diler otomotif mengalami penurunan. Producer Price Index melonjak 1.8% m/m. Business Inventory anjlok 1.0% m/m. Sementara penurunan saham teknologi (Dell, Oracle dan AMD), penurunan harga minyak menjelang laporan inventory AS hari ini, laporan keuangan Bank of America & Citigroup hari Kamis dan FOMC Minutes, dapat membebani kinerja saham regional. Meski masih mendapatkan support dari laporan earnings Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar (EPS $ 4.93 dari perkiraan $3.65) dan imbas dari analis Meredith Withney upgrade saham Goldman Sachs dan bank AS lainnya.
Signal negatif kembali muncul kemarin, dimana IHSG menunjukkan signal bearish continuation dari pola candle downside tasuki gap (high reliability) pada hari Selasa (14/07), didukung oleh potensi kuatnyadouble top di 2,116, ditutup tepat ditutup dibawah 2,060 (76.4% FR 2116-1888) dan ditutup dibawah 5 & 10-day MA, didukung oleh indikator ADX terkoreksi turun, stochastic bearish, MACD divergence, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas dan cendeurng terkoreksi. Kami mempertahankan strategi Sell on Rally (2,060-2,116) untuk target 1,991 (uptrendline support)/1,941 (23.6% FR). Stop diatas 2,116 jika break target 2,165 (61.8% FR)/2,170 (long term downtrend line). Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan selama level 2116 tidak terlampaui, penurunan saat ini merupakan koreksi b/2 dalam 5 subwave - koreksi wave minor 4.
Resistance: 2143.68/2124.08/2104.48/2077.81. PP 2045.69
Support : 2038.61/2019.01/2006.49/1986.89
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2000 - 2,080)
Stock Picks:
* ASIA buy target Rp 300
* ENRG overweight target Rp 600
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (code TF)
Facebook : a_zakarias@yahoo.com
IHSG berhasil rebound pada hari Selasa, berkat kenaikan kenaikan saham di sektor pertambngan, finansial dan konsumer mengikuti kenaikan indeks saham Wall Street dan regional kemarin. Sentimen positif dari kenaikan saham perbankan di AS setelah analis Meredith Whitney upgrade target dan rating saham Goldman Sachs AS dan mengatakan saham bank AS akan rally 15%, memberikan sentimen positif kepada saham perbankan lokal. Di tengah musim earning emiten di AS yang dapat mengangkat sentimen indeks glogal yang telah terpuruk dalam beberapa hari terakhir. Harga minyak yang kembali bertahan di atas US$ 60/barel, mendorong kenaikan saham komoditi kemarin. Indeks melejit 36.44 poin (1.804%), ditutup di 2,056.579, nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 2.918 triliun, lebih rendah dari hari sebelumnya.
Indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik menguat 2.5% kemarin, mendorong indeks MSCI Asia Pasific mengalami kenaikan terbesar dalam 2 bulan, karena Singapura meningkatkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini, fund manager Barton Biggs mengatakan sejumlah pasar di Asia masih menarik” dan JP Morgan upgrade saham KB Financial Grup Inc Korsel.
IHSG Outlook
Potensi kenaikan IHSG pada hari ini diperkirakan masih terbatas, karena IHSG masih berada dalam fase konsolidasi “wait & see” menghadapi hasil kabinet bayangan dan musim earning emiten lokal untuk kuartal kedua yang dimulai di bulan Agustus. Sementara trend penurunan harga komoditi (target $ 54.8 selama di bawah $ 61.6) dan trend penurunan indeks saham regional Asia dan AS (formasi bullish reversal) masih membebani kinerja IHSG yang seharusnya menguat paska pilpres 8 Juli dari laporan analis asing melihat positifnya perkiran kemenangan SBY-Boediono dalam pilpres 8 Juli lalu, dimana dapat memancing masuknya dana masuk dari luar negeri. Meski pembagian dividen sejumlah saham unggulan (PGAS, GGRM, SMGR dan BUMI) dalam 1-2 pekan ini, seharusnya masih dapat menopang kinerja IHSG. Kondisi rupiah yang masih stabil di kisaran Rp 10,200 terhadap dolar, terutama ditopang oleh inflow ke pasar modal setelah lelang SUN yang jatuh tempo tahun 2010/2022/2024/2028 kemarin menghasillkan Rp 3 triliun, lebih besar dari rencana Rp 2 triliun dan laporan rencana pemerintah untuk menerbitkan samurai bond senilai 100 miliar yen (US$ 1.1 miliar) pada 17 Juli, seharusnya dapat menopang kinerja rupiah karena dapat memberikan imbas positif kepada IHSG. Musim earnings bank di AS (JP Morgan, Citigroup) dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan IHSG pekan ini.
Stock Picks : Potential yield 10%%, risk <5%
Buy : BUMI / ENRG / ELTY, BMTR / MNCN, CTRP, INCO, INDF, SMGR, BBCA, BMRI, BBRI, TLKM, ISAT, PTBA, TRUB, PGAS, HEXA.
Global Outlook
Potensi penguatan Indeks regional Asia dan AS diperkirakan terbatas setelah data ekonomi AS memicu kekhawatiran pemulihan ekonomi AS di pertengahan tahun kedua akan lemah, karena Retail Sales AS bulan Juni meski tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar sebesar 0.6%, tetapi penjualan di luar diler otomotif mengalami penurunan. Producer Price Index melonjak 1.8% m/m. Business Inventory anjlok 1.0% m/m. Sementara penurunan saham teknologi (Dell, Oracle dan AMD), penurunan harga minyak menjelang laporan inventory AS hari ini, laporan keuangan Bank of America & Citigroup hari Kamis dan FOMC Minutes, dapat membebani kinerja saham regional. Meski masih mendapatkan support dari laporan earnings Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar (EPS $ 4.93 dari perkiraan $3.65) dan imbas dari analis Meredith Withney upgrade saham Goldman Sachs dan bank AS lainnya.
Signal negatif kembali muncul kemarin, dimana IHSG menunjukkan signal bearish continuation dari pola candle downside tasuki gap (high reliability) pada hari Selasa (14/07), didukung oleh potensi kuatnyadouble top di 2,116, ditutup tepat ditutup dibawah 2,060 (76.4% FR 2116-1888) dan ditutup dibawah 5 & 10-day MA, didukung oleh indikator ADX terkoreksi turun, stochastic bearish, MACD divergence, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas dan cendeurng terkoreksi. Kami mempertahankan strategi Sell on Rally (2,060-2,116) untuk target 1,991 (uptrendline support)/1,941 (23.6% FR). Stop diatas 2,116 jika break target 2,165 (61.8% FR)/2,170 (long term downtrend line). Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan selama level 2116 tidak terlampaui, penurunan saat ini merupakan koreksi b/2 dalam 5 subwave - koreksi wave minor 4.
Resistance: 2143.68/2124.08/2104.48/2077.81. PP 2045.69
Support : 2038.61/2019.01/2006.49/1986.89
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2000 - 2,080)
Stock Picks:
* ASIA buy target Rp 300
* ENRG overweight target Rp 600
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (code TF)
Facebook : a_zakarias@yahoo.com
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