Showing posts with label Elliot Wave. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elliot Wave. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Elliott Wave DJIA 26-07
DJIA: Strong buying power, it just 1/2 way to uptrend, on the way to 10.620/10.720. Maintain hold BUY 10.415.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
South Korea’s Kospi Index May Rise to 1,882: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s benchmark stock index may rise to 1,882 points by March or April, according to technical analyses of the market by Dongbu Securities Co. Since the start of 2009, the Kospi index has formed a so- called “ascending channel,” which suggests it will trade higher as long as it doesn’t move below the base of the channel, Chi Ki Ho, a technical analyst, wrote in a report yesterday.
“There are no signs of an upward tilt easing and falling through the base yet,” the analyst said. “Namely, the market remains strong.”
The Kospi index fell 0.5 percent to 1,605.02 as of 11:16 a.m. in Seoul, and Chi’s forecast represents a 17 percent advance. The measure has climbed 43 percent this year, compared with a 51 percent gain in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.In a further study, the Kospi may be in the middle of the third or fifth wave of an Elliott Wave pattern, a model based on the theory that a market swing follows a five-wave structure: three upward movements and two down cycles. Each upward wave includes five separate sub-waves.The exact wave that the Kospi is in depends on when the starting point of first wave is defined, Chi said. “Whatever the case is, the third wave is the strongest in Elliot Wave theory and therefore its trend doesn’t change easily,” he added.
Based on these patterns and an assumption that the U.S. economy recovers as fiscal stimulus spurs demand, the Kospi has the potential to rise to 1,882 points next spring, Chi said.The Elliot Wave principle was developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. It measures investor psychology and suggests their behavior and the movement of the stock market occurs in repeating patterns.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
“There are no signs of an upward tilt easing and falling through the base yet,” the analyst said. “Namely, the market remains strong.”
The Kospi index fell 0.5 percent to 1,605.02 as of 11:16 a.m. in Seoul, and Chi’s forecast represents a 17 percent advance. The measure has climbed 43 percent this year, compared with a 51 percent gain in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.In a further study, the Kospi may be in the middle of the third or fifth wave of an Elliott Wave pattern, a model based on the theory that a market swing follows a five-wave structure: three upward movements and two down cycles. Each upward wave includes five separate sub-waves.The exact wave that the Kospi is in depends on when the starting point of first wave is defined, Chi said. “Whatever the case is, the third wave is the strongest in Elliot Wave theory and therefore its trend doesn’t change easily,” he added.
Based on these patterns and an assumption that the U.S. economy recovers as fiscal stimulus spurs demand, the Kospi has the potential to rise to 1,882 points next spring, Chi said.The Elliot Wave principle was developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. It measures investor psychology and suggests their behavior and the movement of the stock market occurs in repeating patterns.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Friday, August 14, 2009
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Monday, August 10, 2009
Friday, August 7, 2009
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Usd/Chf: Triangle, Oil: Bullish To $73
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Usd/Chf
4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 1.0589, and 1.1021. Looking for: Triangle. On the swissy chart, the prices created a recent top around the 76.4% area as expected, which could be a top of a blue wave c leg of a fourth wave triangle. If we are on the right track then prices should be trading lower during the next few sessions and days, into our wave d leg with an expected three wave structure. In this case, traders should find wave d lows somewhere above wave b before a last leg of a wave e triangle gets under way.
OIL
4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 58.30, 68.90 and 73.27. Looking for: Break through the 68.90. Oil made another fast and unexpected move during the past session, as the market sharply turned around the 50% Fibonacci support level. However, oil looks more bullish than bearish at the moment so we have focused on a bullish impulse count, especially if the break through the $68.90 area happens. This is key for a move into $73 per barrel. We are looking at a possible blue wave III confirmation that could send the market higher as a blue wave II looks to be completed around the recent $62 area. The $58.30 area must hold; other wise the wave count will have to be re-worked.
Usd/Chf
4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 1.0589, and 1.1021. Looking for: Triangle. On the swissy chart, the prices created a recent top around the 76.4% area as expected, which could be a top of a blue wave c leg of a fourth wave triangle. If we are on the right track then prices should be trading lower during the next few sessions and days, into our wave d leg with an expected three wave structure. In this case, traders should find wave d lows somewhere above wave b before a last leg of a wave e triangle gets under way.
OIL
4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 58.30, 68.90 and 73.27. Looking for: Break through the 68.90. Oil made another fast and unexpected move during the past session, as the market sharply turned around the 50% Fibonacci support level. However, oil looks more bullish than bearish at the moment so we have focused on a bullish impulse count, especially if the break through the $68.90 area happens. This is key for a move into $73 per barrel. We are looking at a possible blue wave III confirmation that could send the market higher as a blue wave II looks to be completed around the recent $62 area. The $58.30 area must hold; other wise the wave count will have to be re-worked.
Asia Stocks Rally to Falter, Lacks Strength: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Asia’s stock-market rally may falter as chart formations show the gains lack “technical strength,” said Elliott Wave International Inc. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has climbed in five waves from lows in March, indicating that the rebound is only the first leg of a larger “bear-market rally,” Elliott Wave International said. The index’s peak volume and momentum in the smaller wave that started mid-July was lower than that of an earlier advance, another indication that prices may “correct,” it added.
The MSCI regional index has risen every day, except one, since July 13, advancing by 15 percent. The rally helped the measure climb 8.4 percent in July, its fifth straight month of gains, on optimism the worst of the global recession has past.“This fifth wave has been impressive, logging a rare 11 up days in a row before stalling on July 29,” Elliott Wave International said in its Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast report. “As impressive as that price performance was, it lacked underlying technical strength.”
The MSCI index has been gaining in the past three weeks under the so-called trend channel that contained most of the advance since March, Elliott Wave International said. The index reached the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the decline between 2007 and 2009 at the 110 level, the report said. Further gains mean the index could peak near 123, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level, the research company said.Elliott Wave Theory, created by U.S. market analyst Ralph Elliott in 1938, attempts to predict future price moves by dividing past trends into sections, or waves, and calculating changes in value.
The MSCI regional index has risen every day, except one, since July 13, advancing by 15 percent. The rally helped the measure climb 8.4 percent in July, its fifth straight month of gains, on optimism the worst of the global recession has past.“This fifth wave has been impressive, logging a rare 11 up days in a row before stalling on July 29,” Elliott Wave International said in its Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast report. “As impressive as that price performance was, it lacked underlying technical strength.”
The MSCI index has been gaining in the past three weeks under the so-called trend channel that contained most of the advance since March, Elliott Wave International said. The index reached the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the decline between 2007 and 2009 at the 110 level, the report said. Further gains mean the index could peak near 123, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level, the research company said.Elliott Wave Theory, created by U.S. market analyst Ralph Elliott in 1938, attempts to predict future price moves by dividing past trends into sections, or waves, and calculating changes in value.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Elliot Wave: Aud/Usd; Wave 5) in Progress, S&P Futures; Long-term Bullish; Near-term Bearish-Correction
Daily Forex Technicals |
Aud/Usd; Wave 5) in Progress
Weekly chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 0.6007, and 0.9848. Looking for: Wave 2/B top.
On the aussie weekly chart, we are looking for a corrective red wave 2/B since the market has fallen sharply down to the previous wave 1/A. Wave 2 or wave B usually retraces 61.8% of the previous leg, which means we may see a move up to the 0.8400 area before wave 2/B can be completed. On the RSI indicator, we can also see enough room for the market to move up into the “over-bought” area. The wave count will be valid as long the 0.9848 high holds.
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 0.7701, and 0.8262 Looking for: Wave 5)
On the Aussie daily chart,prices are trading very close to this year highs, where a possible break of the 0.8262 area will be the key for a much higher levels of this year. We are looking at a blue wave 5), which should trade above the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement area with an impulse structure. The impulse structure means that this wave 5) must be made by another five sub-waves, which will be recognizable on a smaller time frame.
The more precise target of a blue wave 5) is shown at the 0.8595 zone.
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 0.7701. Looking for: Wave III)
Aussie has been extremely bullish in the last couple of hours, as the market broke through 0.8262 yearly highs. On this pair, the structure is also impulsive, therefore new, higher levels are expected. The first target of that move, is shown around the 61.8% Fibonacci level, where it may be just a temporary top of a red wave III), before a corrective wave IV) gets on the way.
S&P Futures; Long-term Bullish; Near-term Bearish-Correction
Weekly chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 665.50, and 1252.50. Looking for: Move to 50% Fibonacci level.
S&P Futures are very bullish on the weekly chart, after a powerful bounce off of the 665.50 support area that was created at the start of this year. This recent uptrend, however, could be a pull-back in wave 4 of a bearish impulse count, with wave 5 yet to come. In this case, wave 4 must not overlap the territory of wave 1.
The converse technical view is that it may also be a start of a new long-term uptrend, if we consider a possible three wave structure from the 1586 top to the 665.50 lows.
Current prices are threatening the long-term trend-line, where a break-out could signal higher prices in the following weeks. The 50% Fibonacci retracement area will be the first target after a break of the 38.2% retracement area.
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 865, and 1030. Looking for: Wave 5
S&P futures are showing an impulse structure on a daily chart after a break of 957 in the past week. The previous corrective wave count moved into an impulse count, from 665 lows to current highs. Wave 5 of this wave count is technically set, as the prices have broken through the previous wave 3 highs, which is confirming a move into a higher wave 5 target around 1030 area. The target will be valid, so as long the 865, wave 4 lows holds.When we compare the daily wave count with a weekly count, it seems that a huge wave 4 (weekly chart) is not the case here, as we have an impulse structure on a daily chart. The wave 4 is a corrective wave and not impulsive wave, which means that a much higher level is easily possible to be reached later this year.
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 865, and 1030. Looking for: Wave 2)
S&P futures are extremely overbought after an amazing rally from 865 lows to current highs. As we covered on the daily wave count; wave 5 is on the way, as the market broke through a long term weekly trend-line around 915 area. This break was the key for a move into new yearly highs with the black wave 5.Wave 5 is impulsive wave which means that is subdivided by a five smaller waves. Therefore the market may now be trading at the top of at the first red wave 1) with a correction in wave 2) to follow. Traders should be looking for three waves of pull-back, near to the previous blue wave IV trading area.
Aud/Usd; Wave 5) in Progress
Weekly chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 0.6007, and 0.9848. Looking for: Wave 2/B top.
On the aussie weekly chart, we are looking for a corrective red wave 2/B since the market has fallen sharply down to the previous wave 1/A. Wave 2 or wave B usually retraces 61.8% of the previous leg, which means we may see a move up to the 0.8400 area before wave 2/B can be completed. On the RSI indicator, we can also see enough room for the market to move up into the “over-bought” area. The wave count will be valid as long the 0.9848 high holds.
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 0.7701, and 0.8262 Looking for: Wave 5)
On the Aussie daily chart,prices are trading very close to this year highs, where a possible break of the 0.8262 area will be the key for a much higher levels of this year. We are looking at a blue wave 5), which should trade above the 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement area with an impulse structure. The impulse structure means that this wave 5) must be made by another five sub-waves, which will be recognizable on a smaller time frame.
The more precise target of a blue wave 5) is shown at the 0.8595 zone.
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 0.7701. Looking for: Wave III)
Aussie has been extremely bullish in the last couple of hours, as the market broke through 0.8262 yearly highs. On this pair, the structure is also impulsive, therefore new, higher levels are expected. The first target of that move, is shown around the 61.8% Fibonacci level, where it may be just a temporary top of a red wave III), before a corrective wave IV) gets on the way.
S&P Futures; Long-term Bullish; Near-term Bearish-Correction
Weekly chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 665.50, and 1252.50. Looking for: Move to 50% Fibonacci level.
S&P Futures are very bullish on the weekly chart, after a powerful bounce off of the 665.50 support area that was created at the start of this year. This recent uptrend, however, could be a pull-back in wave 4 of a bearish impulse count, with wave 5 yet to come. In this case, wave 4 must not overlap the territory of wave 1.
The converse technical view is that it may also be a start of a new long-term uptrend, if we consider a possible three wave structure from the 1586 top to the 665.50 lows.
Current prices are threatening the long-term trend-line, where a break-out could signal higher prices in the following weeks. The 50% Fibonacci retracement area will be the first target after a break of the 38.2% retracement area.
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 865, and 1030. Looking for: Wave 5
S&P futures are showing an impulse structure on a daily chart after a break of 957 in the past week. The previous corrective wave count moved into an impulse count, from 665 lows to current highs. Wave 5 of this wave count is technically set, as the prices have broken through the previous wave 3 highs, which is confirming a move into a higher wave 5 target around 1030 area. The target will be valid, so as long the 865, wave 4 lows holds.When we compare the daily wave count with a weekly count, it seems that a huge wave 4 (weekly chart) is not the case here, as we have an impulse structure on a daily chart. The wave 4 is a corrective wave and not impulsive wave, which means that a much higher level is easily possible to be reached later this year.
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 865, and 1030. Looking for: Wave 2)
S&P futures are extremely overbought after an amazing rally from 865 lows to current highs. As we covered on the daily wave count; wave 5 is on the way, as the market broke through a long term weekly trend-line around 915 area. This break was the key for a move into new yearly highs with the black wave 5.Wave 5 is impulsive wave which means that is subdivided by a five smaller waves. Therefore the market may now be trading at the top of at the first red wave 1) with a correction in wave 2) to follow. Traders should be looking for three waves of pull-back, near to the previous blue wave IV trading area.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
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