Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's consolidation from 60.08 continues today. With a short term top in place, further pull back could still be seen. Nevertheless, recent rise is still in favor to resume as long as 51.89/95 cluster support holds (50% retracement of 43.83 to 60.08 at 51.95). Firm break of 60.12 fibo resistance will target 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.96). However, note that break of 51.89/95 support will serve as the first alert that whole rally from 33.2 has completed and will turn focus to 43.83 for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, the possible five wave structure of the rise from 33.2 and the sustained trading above 55 days EMA is consistent with the view that fall from 147.27 has completed at 33.2. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 43.83 support holds and crude oil is set to take on next key resistance of 55 weeks EMA at 67.96 and 55 months EMA at 68.74. The development in the next few weeks will be important in determining if the trend in crude oil has reversed or not. In particular, focus will be on the upper channel resistance (now at 64 level) and the mentioned EMA resistance. Strong break there will argue that rise from 33.2 is "accelerating" and thus indicate that it's developing into up trend of a larger scale. However, bounce off from these levels, followed by break of 43.83, will indeed indicate that rise fro 33.2 is merely a correction in the larger down trend only.

Downward Pressure Building for S&P 500 Stock Market Index

By: Donald_W_Dony
Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the May newsletter, I indicated that major indexes were expected to retest their march lows by early July. Models were suggesting that the highest probability of renewed weakness could be expected in mid-May. Though the actual change in trend has not quite occurred, the bullish attitude and trading over the last 2-3 days for the benchmark S&P 500 has clearly shifted to a more bearish tone. Once the index closes below 890, the bullish uptrend that began in early March has ended. As the low is anticipated in 7-8 weeks, models continue to point to 700-650 by July.Bottom line: As there has not been a final bear market trough in March for over 70 years, probability models would suggest that this past low of 670 for the S&P 500 is unlikely the bottom. The greatest likelihood still rests with the coming October trough. Of the last 12 bear markets since 1946, six declines posted their deepest level in October.

Your comments are always welcomed.
By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA

Gold & the Euro: Metal vs. Money

By: Adrian_Ash
Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold has now doubled since the Euro first got where it stands against the Dollar today...SINCE THIS decade’s Dollar Decline first pushed the Euro above $1.35 in late 2004 – a level it reclaimed this week – the price of gold has gone on to double for both US and Eurozone citizens.American investors and savers would have been much better off Buying Gold instead of Euros, in other words, as would everyone else. And looking ahead, “These days, currency weakness, relative to other currencies, matters less for gold,” reckons Standard Bank’s Walter de Wet. “All major currencies are being devalued, and as a result – and on a relative basis – currencies are trading in the same ranges seen before. However, these currencies are weaker against tangible assets such as gold.”

The European single currency has in fact averaged $1.35 to the Dollar for the last three-and-half years. Over that same period, gold has pushed up against both, averaging $730 per ounce but standing higher today by one-quarter at $925.Sticking with the Dollar Down trend, “We expect the Dollar to depreciate to $1.50 by year-end,” Standard Bank adds. “As a result, the Gold Price should rise.” But by much exactly, if this relationship were to hold good from here...? Yes, the price of gold in dollars stumbles around the same path as the world’s No.1 non-Dollar money when priced in greenbacks. As our chart shows, in fact, gold has loosely mapped the Euro (as figured back to 1979 via the Deutsche Mark’s pre-union value) for much of the last 30 years. Dropping more than half their monthly average, for instance, as the “Super Dollar” marked the global deflation of 1980-85 (or ‘disinflation’ if you prefer), both gold and its European alternative swung higher...and then lower...to hit bottom at the start of this decade. From there, they’ve both moved sharply upwards again, breaking new all-time records above their old 1980 highs.

But as de Wet points out, the move in gold has been much swifter than the single currency’s gains. “There is better support for gold at the same Dollar/Euro exchange rate,” in short. And viewed across the last 30 years, the Gold Price is holding one-third better than its previous high (monthly average). Europe’s official non-Dollar, in contrast, advanced only 4% to its new peak of July 2008.

Technical Leading Stock Market Indicators That Professional Investors Look At

By: Marty_Chenard
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleProfessional investors have an advantage for a lot of reasons. One reason is because of the amounts and types of data they look at. One thing that professional investors keep an eye on is the volume of Advancing and/or Declining shares every day. This first matrix shows that data for the New York Stock Exchange, the NASDAQ, the American Stock Exchange, and the Over The Counter Bulleting Board. (OTC stocks are generally unlisted stocks which trade on the Over the Counter Bulletin Board (OTCBB) or on the pink sheets.) To get a better feel for what went on yesterday, we added the Advancing Share volume to the Declining Shares for a total. Then, we calculated the percent declining or advancing as seen below.

A picture is worth a thousand words ...
Sometimes, putting data in a chart form is much easier and quicker to read and understand. The chart below shows the action for the above data.
What do you notice that was significant about yesterday?
First look at the NYSE (NYA) exchange where most of the Institutional trading volume occurs. Note that most of the share volume was declining, indicating that the large investors were selling. Next look at the NASDAQ ... the buying and selling volume was nearly EQUAL. A pretty balanced day with little bias to either side. The American Stock Exchange (AMEX) showed the same profile as the NYSE, except that there was less selling.

Now, look at the "small investor's exchange" ... the Over the Counter exchange. Here we see just the opposite. Instead of selling, they were unaware of what was going with the larger investors and they were buying.
Conclusion: Larger investors were taking profits, while smaller investors were still buying. *** Feel free to share this page with others by using the "Send this Page to a Friend" link below.

GBP/USD Forming A Head And Shoulders Reversal

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TradersChoiceFX
The GBP/USD rallied today paring some of the losses sustained after yesterday's BoE announcement. Based on this 1h chart we see the final leg of a Head and Shoulders forming. This is a particularly interesting Head and Shoulder due to placement of the neckline at 1.5085. We have seen this level act as a support and resistance area over the past week and because of this it should add some excitement to the formation. If the pair does indeed complete the 3rd part of the Head and Shoulders formation, we would be looking for a reversal of 245 pips, which represents the distance from the neckline (1.5085) to the crown of the head (1.5330).

I do not expect the pair to break the neckline initially due to its sitting on a known support line. Look for a more prolonged consolidation around the neckline before any major decline; however any type of unexpected news event could easily trigger the pair to suddenly move. Also be cautious of leaving any limit orders open as we near the end of the week. At the current rate, it is possible that the pattern will extend to next week's trading session. Due to the gap in time and world events which may occur, there is a high degree of volatility and uncertainty on the first day of trading, especially in the first few hours of the open. It would not surprise me if the pair takes its time before finally descending below the neckline, but once it does, it could signal a further decline that will more likely than not reach our target area.

Asia Currencies Set for Weekly Loss as Stocks Falter on Economy

Asian currencies were headed for a weekly drop, led by South Korea’s won, as a rally in stocks faltered on signs the global recession is far from easing. The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-active currencies excluding the yen, fell this week for the first time in a month and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares snapped a two-week rally. Unemployment-insurance claims filed by Americans last week rose more than estimates, while state-run Korea Development Institute forecast yesterday that its economy will shrink 2.3 percent in 2009, the first contraction in more than a decade.

The won, Asia’s best-performing currency in the past month, declined 0.9 percent this week to 1,258.05 per dollar as of 11:45 a.m. in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Philippine peso weakened 0.9 percent to 47.68, while the Malaysian ringgit fell 0.7 percent to 3.5427.Initial U.S. jobless claims rose by 32,000 to 637,000 in the week ended May 9, the Labor Department said yesterday, 27,000 more than estimated in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The bankruptcy of Chrysler LLC and the potential for a similar collapse of General Motors Corp. may cause further job losses, threatening to delay the economy’s recovery from the deepest recession in half a century.

‘Pretty Bloody’
A government report in Indonesia may today show Southeast Asia’s biggest economy expanded 4.3 percent last quarter, the slowest pace in five years, according to a Bloomberg survey. Singapore’s economy shrank the most since at least 1975 in the same quarter and Thailand’s Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij estimates a “pretty bloody” GDP contraction of as much as 6 percent in the same period. The yen was poised for its best week against the dollar in five months, trading at 95.94, versus 98.47 in New York on May 8. Japan’s currency also posted a weekly gain against the euro, trading at 130.76, compared with 134.23. The peso ended a two-week rally on speculation oil companies are purchasing dollars to pay for imports. The currency has declined 1.5 percent since touching a three-month high reached on May 11 after the tax bureau said revenue fell short of target in April, spurring concern that the government will fail to narrow its budget deficit.

Taiwan Dollar
Taiwan’s dollar was set for a fourth winning week on speculation warming relations with China will draw investment and help pull the economy out of a recession. The currency’s gains were tempered as global funds sold $1 billion more local shares than they bought this week as of yesterday. The benchmark Taiex index of stocks fell 1.2 percent this week, ending a three-week rally. The island’s dollar rose 0.5 percent this week to NT$32.891 against the U.S. currency, according to Taipei Forex Inc. It touched NT$32.767 on May 13, the strongest level since Dec. 31.

Elsewhere, the Indonesian rupiah declined 0.4 percent this week to 10,410 a dollar, while Thailand’s baht jumped 1 percent to 34.53. China’s yuan traded at 6.8247 versus 6.8218 on May 8, while Singapore’s dollar was at S$1.4649, compared with S$1.4659.

Indonesia’s economy grew at 1.6% Q/Q, 4.4% Y/Y

(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s economy grew at the fastest pace in Southeast Asia last quarter as buoyant local spending helped the nation fend off the global recession.
Gross domestic product expanded 4.4 percent in the three months to March 31 from a year earlier, compared with a 5.2 percent gain in the previous quarter, the statistics bureau said in Jakarta today. That was more than the median forecast of 4.3 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 19 economists. Indonesia has been less affected than its Asian neighbors by the worst global slump since World War II as it isn’t as reliant on exports. Singapore’s economy shrank the most since at least 1975 in the first quarter and Thailand’s Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij expects a “pretty bloody” GDP contraction of as much as 6 percent in the same period.“Domestic demand appears to be holding up,” said Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, chief economist at Danareksa Research Institute in Jakarta. “The fact that growth exceeded consensus signals we have reached the bottom and we can expect growth to pick up.” Bank Indonesia predicts the economy will expand at the higher end of its 3 percent to 4 percent range this year, central bank Deputy Governor Hartadi Sarwono said today. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yesterday raised its 2009 forecast to 3.5 percent from a previous estimate of 2.5 percent.

Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence in Southeast Asia’s largest economy soared to a four-year high in April, according to a central bank survey of more than 4,300 households in 16 cities. Respondents expected “relatively favorable” incomes over the next six months and were more willing to spend their money on durable goods, the Bank Indonesia survey showed. Spending by consumers jumped 19.2 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to today’s report. Investment increased 3.5 percent.Rising confidence in Indonesia’s growth prospects, and investor speculation that demand for emerging-market assets will increase as the global economy recovers from a recession, has buoyed the nation’s stocks and the currency.The benchmark stock index has climbed 28 percent since the start of the year and the rupiah was this week trading near the highest level in six months after Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said May 12 that Indonesia’s economy may expand 5 percent to 6 percent next year. The Jakarta Composite index fell 1.7 percent to 1,755.01 as of 2:49 p.m. local time.

‘Recovering Swiftly’
“There appears to be pockets of resilience in the economy and consumer confidence is recovering swiftly,” said Anton Gunawan, the Jakarta-based chief economist at PT Bank Danamon Indonesia. “The deceleration in economic growth is unlikely to be very severe.” Other Southeast Asian economies are not faring as well. Vietnamese GDP expanded 3.1 percent in the three months to March 31 from a year earlier, the weakest pace since quarterly statistics were first available in 1999. The Philippine economy likely grew between 2.1 percent and 3.1 percent in the first quarter, Economic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto said April 20. Hong Kong’s economy contracted 7.8 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, following a decline of 2.5 percent in the previous three months, the government said today.

Indonesia’s $433 billion economy may also benefit from spending on this year’s parliamentary and presidential elections, said economists including Juniman from PT Bank Internasional Indonesia in Jakarta. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democrat Party won 148 seats in the 560-member House of Representatives in last month’s elections. That’s enough under Indonesian law to allow the party to pick a candidate to run in July’s presidential poll.

Interest Rates
Lower borrowing costs are also encouraging consumers to spend. Bank Indonesia has cut its benchmark interest rate for six straight months, with Governor Boediono last lowering the key rate by a quarter-point to 7.25 percent on May 5, the lowest since the measure was introduced in July 2005. Motorcycle sales in Indonesia rose in March for a second straight month, with 435,881 units sold, according to a report from the Indonesian Automotive Industries Association issued by PT Astra International. Indonesian GDP, which the government expects to expand between 4 percent and 4.5 percent this year, grew 1.6 percent in the first quarter from the previous three months.“The resilience of domestic demand will remain the bedrock to Indonesia’s growth recovery,” said Enoch Fung, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in Hong Kong. “Indonesia is one of the least external-demand-dependent economies in the region.”

Copper Base Signals Rise, StanChart Says: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Copper may rise to levels not seen since October in the month ahead, as the metal forms a U-shaped base, Standard Chartered Bank said, citing trading patterns. The 50-week momentum indicator continues to turn higher and supports a rising copper market, as does the sustained push above the 13-week moving average, London-based David Barclay, the bank’s commodity strategist, wrote in a report yesterday. The 14-day stochastic indicator and MACD lines are also signaling a “buy,” he said. Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange has jumped 45 percent this year, and traded at $4,460 at 8:31 a.m. Singapore time. Copper prices are still struggling to clear resistance at $4,925 a ton, but a climb to $5,156 a ton remains favored over the coming month,” wrote Barclay. This is a 38.2 percent retracement of the fall from the 2008 high, he said, based on a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence. After this, copper may target the 50 percent retracement objective of $5,878 a ton, he added.

Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break of a so-called ‘level of resistance’ indicates a price may move to the next level, while a failure indicates a trend may stall. Sell orders may be clustered at resistance levels. A long term pullback to the 50-week moving average of $5,247.31 a ton is still expected on this bull cycle, said Barclay. Holding above support at $4,158 a ton is now “critical” to avoid a slump to the March 30 low of $3,886.25 a ton and lower, he added. “Resistance to watch above $4,925 a ton is placed at $5,615 a ton, the 14 October 2008 high,” wrote Barclay. “Pressure below $3,886 a ton would call this into question though, making chart support important to hold on this current pullback.”

Gold May Extend Gain as Resistance Breached: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Gold may extend its two-week advance after breaching the so-called resistance level that defined the precious metal’s bear trend since this year’s peak in February, Standard Bank Group Ltd. said, citing trading patterns. This indicates the “corrective phase has ended,” Darran Grabham, the bank’s technical analyst, wrote in a note yesterday. “This is a positive development, but we are not currently forecasting a move to a new high.” A resistance level is where sell orders may be clustered. “A break above $932 is forecast in the weeks ahead, yielding a move into the $960 to $966.70 area, from where a reaction is envisaged,” Grabham wrote.

Gold for immediate delivery traded little changed at $925.47 an ounce at 10:01 a.m. Singapore time and has gained 1 percent this week. The precious metal is down 8 percent from this year’s intra-day high of $1,006.29 on Feb. 20.The advance may stall at $932, with the $900 to $890 area providing support to ensuing retracements, Grabham wrote. If the anticipated sell-off does not materialize around $960, the rally may extend to $980. “Gold weakness back below $890 turns the outlook neutral, while continued selling through $880 again exposes the market to the pivotal $869 to $865.80 support base,” he wrote. “A sell signal will be initiated below $865.80, initially yielding a decline to $840.”

April’s $4.2 Trillion Increase In World Stock Market Value - Largest Monthly Increase In History

The top chart above shows the world stock market capitalization based on data from the World Federation of Exchanges, in trillions of USDs, monthly from January 1996 to April 2009. The bottom chart shows the monthly change in world stock market value, measured in trillions of USDs. The $4.2 trillion increase in April’s world stock market capitalization, from $29.8 trillion in March to $34 trillion in April is the largest single month increase in the history of the World Federation’s data.

Daily Technical Analysis & Elliot Wave Forex/Cross/Gold/Oil/CFD

By Ahmad Mudjo (My Strategist Partner)

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Data GDP Euro & CPI AS Dapat Meningkatkan Volatiltitas Pasar

USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
82.41 (-15) 89.62 (04/03) 79.63 (02/01) 1.3633 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)

Dolar AS mengalami penguatan terhadap yen dan euro di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap ancaman deflasi di AS setelah data PPI AS semalam, meningkat lebih dari prediksi yang mendorong investor memburu kembali asset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi, meski hari ini mendapatkan aksi profit-taking menjelang data inflasi (CPI) dan keyakinan konsumen University of Michigan. Dolar juga mengalami penguatan berkat spekulasi bank sentral Eropa akan meningkatkan pembelian obligasi pemerintah untuk menurunkan suku bunga dan optimism terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global mereda. Setelah AS mendapatkan sentiment negatif dari data ekonomi Retail Sales, dilanjutkan dengan jobless claims yang meningkat 32,000 menjadi 637,000, menjadi total 6.56 juta, rekor untuk 15 pekan beturut-turut. di pekan lalu, masih memberikan daya tarik kepada investor berkat prospek safe haven. Meski data PPI tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan +0.3% di bulan April karena harga makanan meningkat, setelah anjlok 1.2% di bulan Maret. Hari ini AS akan merilis data penting seperti CPI (p:0.0%), Empire Manufacturing Index (P:-12.0), Industrial Production (P:-0.6%), dan U Michigan Confidence Index (P: 67.0), dapat mendorong risk aversion untuk penguatan dolar jika data tersebut dirilis dibawah perkiraan pasar.

Euro mengalami aksi sprofit-taking di sesi Asia hari ini terhadap dolar dan yen, setelah pasar masih meragukan pemulihan ekonomi global dan spekulasi bank sentral Eropa akan meningkatkan pembelian obligasi pemerintah untuk menurunkan suku bunga. Euro juga mengalami tekanan dari perkiraan data GDP Q1 2009 Euro akan menunjukkan resesi di Eropa kian mendalam, karena pertumbuhan akan mengalami kontraksi pada laju tercepat daalam 13 tahun terakhir. Meski potensi kenaikan indeks saham global saat ini, masih memberikan keuntungan kepada euro karena investor masih berkeinginan menoleransi resiko, karena suku bunga global berada di rekor terendah dan suku bunga LIBOR 3-bulan USD merosot di bawah 1%. Meski euro juga mendapatkan sentiment negative dari kemelut dalam dewan kebijakan ECB, dimana VP ECB Lucas Papademos mengatakan pemulihan ekonomi mungkin lebih cepat dari perkiraan awal, sementara Nout Wellink mengatakan ekonom seharusnya tidak terlalu optimis mengenai “green shoots, seharusnya masih membatasi potensi penguatan euro dolar hari ini. Sementara pasar juga akan mengamati Data GDP Q1 Euro (P: -2.0%), data ekonomi AS, dimana dapat mendorong kembali risk aversion yang membebani euro.

USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.92 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5215 1.5372 (08/01) 1.3502 (23/01)

Yen melemah terhadap dolar dan yen di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat kenaikan saham Wall Street semalam dan Nikkei 225 hari ini, mendorong investor memburu kembali asset yang beresiko seperti saham dan mata uang yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi. Sementara biaya pinjaman untuk yen 3-bulan merosot ke level terendah 2-tahun sebesar 0.54% di London, hamper setengah dari jumlah pinjaman dalam bentuk euro, ikut melemahkan yen. Meksi laju pelemahan yen terhadap dolar dan euro, terbatas pada hari ini, berkat perkiraan optimism pemulihan ekonomi global karena data GDP Q1 Euro dan sejumlah data ekonomi AS hari ini, dapat memicu risk aversion kembali yang dapat menguatkan yen, jika data tersebut tercatat dibawah perkiraan pasar. Meski secara keseluruhan pemulihan ekonomi global tergantung kepada rilisan data ekonomi di tengah trend kenaikan pengangguran global, seharusnya masih memberikan keuntungan kepada yen dalam waktu dekat.

Pound sterling mengalami aksi profit-taking terhadap dolar dan euro di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah optimism investor global kembali terganggu oleh munculnya sejumlah sentiment dari ekonomi AS yang masih terlihat berada di dalam resesi berkepanjangan. Sementara perkiraan data pertumbuhan Eropa akan terkontraksi di Q1 2009, data AS dirilis hari ini dapat meningkatkan risk aversion dapat membebani kinerja pound, dimana sebelumnya pound mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari lapora BOE Inflation Report yang negatif, menunjukkan penurunan di projeksi pertumbuhan dan inflasi Inggris di tahun 2009 dan 2010, yang mendorong perkiraan ekonomi Inggris masih berada dalam resesi berkepanjangan. Data ekonomi AS yang dirilis hari ini, dapat meningkatkan permintaan untuk pound jika data tercatat sesuai dengan perkiraan pasar dan bahkan diatas perkiraan pasar.

USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.1044 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7590 0.7713 (11/05) 0.6248 (02/02)

Swiss franc mengalami tekanan terhadap dolar dan euro di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap ancaman deflasi di AS setelah data PPI AS semalam, meningkat lebih dari prediksi yang mendorong investor memburu kembali asset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi, meski hari ini mendapatkan aksi profit-taking menjelang data inflasi (CPI) dan keyakinan konsumen University of Michigan. Franc juga mengalami tekanan berkat spekulasi bank sentral Eropa akan meningkatkan pembelian obligasi pemerintah untuk menurunkan suku bunga dan optimism terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global mereda. Setelah AS mendapatkan sentiment negatif dari data ekonomi Retail Sales, dilanjutkan dengan jobless claims yang meningkat 32,000 menjadi 637,000, menjadi total 6.56 juta, rekor untuk 15 pekan beturut-turut. di pekan lalu, masih memberikan daya tarik kepada investor berkat prospek safe haven. Meski data PPI tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan +0.3% di bulan April karena harga makanan meningkat, setelah anjlok 1.2% di bulan Maret. Hari ini AS akan merilis data-data penting, bilamana tercatat diatas perkiraan, Swiss franc dapat menguat berkat risk appeite investor kembali meningkat.

Dolar Australia berpotensi mengalami pelemahan mingguan pertama sejak bulan Februari karena meredupnya optimisme mengenai ekonomi global yang menurunkan permntaan untuk aset di Australia yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi. dolar Selandia baru melemah terhadap hampir semua mata uang utama dunia setelah laporan pemerintah Retail Sales Selandia Baru anjlok di kuartal pertama hampir melampaui setengah dari perkiraan ekonom. Aussie dan kiwi juga melemah setelah laporan Retail Sales dan Jobless Claims AS anjlok baru-baru ini, diikuti laporan anjloknya ekspor China di bulan April lebih dari perkiraan pasar, mendorong spekulasi bahwa optimisme pemulihan ekonomi global telah meredup. Permintaan untuk aussie dan kiwi juga merosot setelah International Monetary Fund (IMF) mengatakan bank sentral Selandia Baru seharusnya menurunkan suku bunga lebih lanjut di tengah penurunan inflasi dan resesi berkepanjangan. Data ekonomi euro dan AS hari ini dapat mendorong risk aversion jika data tercatat dibawah perkiraan pasar.

Technical Analysis

EUR-USD menunjukkan pola konsolidasi dalam uptrend channel yang mendukung trend bullish jangka pendek, dimana candle daily menunjukkan pola piercing, ADX flat mendukung konsolidasi harga dalam 1 pekan ini, stochastic masih uptrend, MACD uptrend, dan masih ditutup diatas trendline support di 1.3510 untuk target doble top dan resistance line di 1.3721/1.3737, bilamana ditutup diatas level tersebut, target 1.3848 (61.8 FE) dan 1.4023 (100 FE). Sementara penutupan dibawah 1.3510 dapat menggagalkan skenario bullish, target 1.3216 (61.8 fibo retrcement). Sell 1.3720 dan buy break 1.3750 target 1.3850/1.4000 stop 60p, sell break 1.3500 target 1.3200, buy 1.3530 target 1.3700.

(-50p) USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola bearish dari formasi downtren channel dalam falling wedge, meski kemarin menunjukkan pola bullish dari candle bullish harami dan tembusnya downtrend channel pada hari ini, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan untuk target 96.20/96.85 (61.8 fibo retracement). Selama masih berada di atas trendline support di 94.50, continuation bearish dapat terhenti, untuk rebound. Buy 95.00 (former support) target 96.80 stop 50p, Sell break 94.40 target 92.80, stop 60p, reverse buy target 96.80.

(+150p). GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish jangka pendek, berkat signal positif dari indikator teknikal ADX (trending up), MACD bullish dan stochastic crosing up, didukung formasi ascending triangle dan candle bullish, seharusnya masih menopang penguatan GBP-USD pada hari ini dan bahkan pekan ini, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.5080 (trendline support, bilamana hal itu terjadi target 1.4940 (low)/bahkan 1.4810 (35 day MA). Sementara potensi kenaikan terbatas berkat adanya resistance line 1.5281 di dalam wedge dan pola ascending triangle line di 1.5412, jika ditembus (sustainable) ke mengarah ke 1.5385/1.5690 (200-day MA). Buy 1.5130 target 1.5300 stop 60p, buy break 1.5250 target 1.5350 stop dibawah 1.5200. sell 1.5340 target 1.5200 stop 60p.

USDCHF masih berada dalam trend bearish, karena signal negatif dari penutunan di bawah formasi downtrend channel, pola zig zag (konsolidasi) masih membayangi potensi penurunan di level support 1.0975, jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut, dapat mendorong continuation bearish pattern untuk target 1.0910/1.0701 (161.8 FE).potensi kenaikan terbatas selama masih ditutup harian dibawah 1.1145 (61.8 fibo retracement), jika tembus target 1.1249/1.1315 Sell 1.1140 target 1.000 stop 60p, sell break 1.0960 target 1.0800 (closing) stop 50p, buy break 1.1200 target 1.1420 stop 60p.

Laporan GDP Q1 dapat picu technical rebound

Market Review

Kekhawatiran mahalnya valuasi saham unggulan lokal dan aksi profit-taking saham grup Bakrie yang telah menguat tajam selama beberapa pekan terakhir, mendorong IHSG anjlok kemarin. Imbas dari penurunan bursa Wall Street dan regional Asia ikut membebani kinerja IHSG. Semua sektor di BEI ditutup lebih rendah 1.14% - 7.98% kemarin, karena sektor komoditi pertambangan dan perkebunan (penurunan harga minyak ke $ 56/barel, CPO -94 ringgit ke Myr 2,800), telekomunikasi (TLM-ISAT dari imbas penurunan di dual listing), aneka industri (ASII, GGRM) dan tentunya saham grup Bakrie (BUMI, UNSP, BTEL, BNBR, DEWA). IHSG anjlok 66.329 poin (-3.58%), ditutup di 1,785.003, dengan total nilai transaksi Rp 7.806 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net sell sebesar Rp 418.33 miliar kemarin.

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific terkoreksi tajam kemarin, berkat lemahnya data Retail Sales AS dan projeksi penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi Inggris oleh bank sentral Inggris, memicu kembali risk aversion diantara investor yang melihat pemulihan ekonomi global tidak sekuat perkiraan pasar sebelumnya.

IHSG Outlook

Faktor sentimen yang negatif dari regional dan faktor teknikal yang overbought masih dapat membebani kinerja IHSG hari ini, meski laju penurunan akan terbatas berkat trend jangka pendek masih bullish dan menjelang rilisan data GDP Q1 Indonesia hari ini, dimana prediksi Menteri Keuangan 4.3%-4.8% dan prediksi BI 4.6%, dibandingkan 5.2% di Q4 2008, seharusnya dapat menopang indeks, kecuali data GDP tercatat di bawah prediksi pemerintah, dapat memberikan sentimen negatif kepada IHSG. Sementara rupiah masih bertengger di kisaran Rp 10,360/dolar dan projeksi kenaikan kinerja korporat di Q2 2009 berkat kenaikan harga komoditi, stimulus pemerintah dan mengalirnya dana pemilu 9 April ke sektor riil, seharusnya membatasi imbas negatif dari faktor eksternal yang tengah ditimpa sejumlah laporan ekonomi yang negatif. Saham grup BUMI, 2nd liner (TRUB, INKP, MIRA, CPRO, TMPI) dapat menopang kinerja IHSG.

Stock Picks:

* UNSP
* UNVR

Global Outlook

Munculnya sejumlah sentmen positif dari AS, dimana lebih baik dari perkiraan earnings dari Wal Mart dan CA Corp AS, laporan Chrysler Corp LLC akan mengeliminasi 789 dealership dan kemungkinan pengajuan kebangkrutan oleh General Motor Corp, kenaikan data Producer Price Index (PPI) AS (+0.3%), meredam kekhawatiran deflasi di AS, seharusnya dapat menopang kinerja saham regional Asia dan AS hari Jumat, kendati laporan peningkatan pengangguran di data Jobless Claims (637K) masih membebani potensi indeks regional Asia untuk rebound hari ini.

Technical Analysis:

Potensi penurunan IHSG terlihat terbatas pada hari ini, karena indikator teknikal ADX terlihat lemah di saat ini indeks mengalami penurunan, diikuti MACD yang masih uptrend, stochastic kendati menunjukkan overbought masih berada di teritorial positif dan volume menunjukkan convergence dengan harga. Meski potensi penurunan tetap terbuka berkat signal bearish dari penutupan dibawah 5-day MA (1,832)/10-day MA (1,807) dan dibawah 100.0 FE 1,787, candle breakaway bearish, untuk mencoba ke support 1,754 (38.2 fibo retracement) dan maksimal ke 1,724 161.8 FE. Indeks masih berada dalam diagonal triangle dengan downtrendline di 1,688, bilamana ditutup di level tersebut dapat merubah trend menjadi bearish dan menggagalkan skenario bullish untuk target 1,577 (200-day MA). Secara hitungan Elliot wave, koreksi wave minor 4 dalam siklus wave primary C selama berada di bawah 2,215 (61.8 FE).
Resistance: 1878.64/1855.23/1831.82/1818.10. PP 1804.38
Support : 1780.97/1757.56/1743.84/1730.12
(Perkiraan Range Hari Ini 1,750-1,810)

Regional Asia Berpotensi Rebound

SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9165 9020 9300 8920 9375 9140 9475 8825 8980 9075 9325 9480 9575
Commentary

Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi rising wedge menunjukkan pola continuation bullish, selama tidak melanggar dan ditutup dibawah 8,940 dan potensi rebound dapat terjadi hari ini berkat signal doji candle. Indikator teknikal ADX terkoreksi disaat indeks mengalami penurunan, menunjukkan potensi kenaikan dalam waktu dekat, stochastic masih berada di teritorial positif & MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan konsolidasi, karena volume menunjukkan penurunan disaat indeks menurun menunjukkan laju penurunan terlihat lemah, meski trend jangka pendek masih bulish selama berada diatas 8,905 (trendine) target 9,605. Potensi penurunan terbatas di support line 100.0 FE & 5-day MA di 8961/8829 di daily chart. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9000-9300.

Rekomendasi : Buy break 9150 target 9290, stop 100p, buy 9060 target 9300 stop 100p. Sell 9300 target 9200 stop 100p. (+220p)

KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
181.85 177.3 179.7 176.3 180.5 178.1 181.5 178.5 179.2 180.5 182.5 183.2 184.5
Commentary

Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, karena indeks berada dalam ascending triangle, meski gagal ditutup diatas trendline 180.40 yang menunjukkan signal negatif, diikuti pola candle spinning top, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan konsolidasi, karena masih berada di atas 176.75, meski potensi penurunanpun terbatas karena kondisi teknikal stochastic bullish, MACD bullish dan ADX etrkoreksi turun, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi rebound pada hari ini. Trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 177.20 (trendline support), menggagalkan skenario bullish di bulan ini untuk target 186.85 (161.8 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 176-180.00

Rekomendasi : Buy 176.20 target 180.00 stop 100p buy break 178.00 target 181.50 stop 100p. Sell break 173.50 target 170.00 stop 100p, sell 180.00 target 178.50 stop 100p (+260+55p)

HSIJ9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
16930 16406 16719 16306 16875 16563 16985 16353 16612 16771 17189 17448 17607
Commentary

Secara teknikal, HSIK9 masih berada dalam trend bullish, karena indeks berada dalam formasi diagonal triangle dalam uptrend channel, meski potensi rebound dapat terjadi hari ini, berkat pola hammer kemarin, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan hari ini, menunjukkan pola konsolidasi dalam pola MACD yang overbought. Indeks selama ditutup dibawah resistance line di uptrend channel di 17,620, potensi kenaikan terbatas, target 16,895 (5-day MA) dan 200-day MA di 16,071 merupakan support long term. Indikator stochastic, ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunanyang seharusnya mendukung perkiraan penurunan penurunan 2 hair ini lemah, MACD masih menunjukkan uptrend yang kuat, kendati laju kenaikan terbatas, berkat penutupan masih berada diatas 15,305. Perkiraan range hari ini : 16200-16800. Rekomendasi : Buy break 16,565 target 17,115 (or closing) stop 100 p. sell break 16,830 target 16500, stop 100 poin. Buy 16280 target 17.000.

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Forex - Risk Aversion vs Risk Appetite

USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
82.12 (-46) 89.62 (04/03) 79.63 (02/01) 1.3595 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)

Dolar AS mengalami penguatan untuk hari ke-2 di sesi Asia pada hari ini, terhadap euro dan pound karena saham Asia melanjutkan penurunan akibat investor melakukan risk aversion, yang meningkatkan permintaan untuk mata uang safe haven seperti dolar dan yen. Dolar juga mendapatkan keuntungan dari sentimen negatif untuk euro yang mendorong perkiraan ECB akan kembali meningkatkan pembelian obligasi pemerintah. Meredanya optimisme pasar terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global ikut berperan menguatkan dolar AS. Semalam, dolar rebound dari level terendah 4-bulan terhadap basket mata uang utama dunia setelah kejutan penurunan data Retail Sales AS memperingatkan investor bahwa ekonomi AS masih berada dalam resesi yang dalam, mendorong aliran safe haven ke dolar AS. Retail Sales AS anjlok di bulan April untuk bulan kedua, sebesar 0.4%, didbandingkan prediksi 0.0%. Data bulan Maret direvisi turun menjadi -1.3%. kondisi tersebut menunjukkan konsumen AS mungkin tidak mampu mengeluarkan ekonomi dari resesi, karena penurunan pendapatan dan penurunan tajam kesejateraan rumah tangga mungkin membatasi kemampuan daya beli untuk sementara waktu. Nanti malam, AS akan merilis data inflasi (PPI), bilamana meningkat dari perkiraan akan mendorong kekhawatiran stagflasi, dapat mendorong risk aversion.

Euro mengalami pelemahan untuk hari ke-2 terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah indeks saham Asia Pasifik mengalami koreksi penurunan tajam, akibat investor yang melakukan risk aversion, menurunkan daya tarik untuk euro dan meningkatkan daya tarik untuk dolar sebagai mata uang safe haven. Euro juga melemah ke level terendah 1-pekan berkat spekulasi pejaba ECB pada hari ini akan memberikan signal mereka akan mengambil ukuran yang tidak konvensional untuk menurunkan biaya pinjaman. Semalam euro terkoreksi dari level tertinggi 7-pekan karena lemahnya data ekonomi yang meredakan harapan untuk pemulihan ekonomi global. Sementara konsumen di AS menurunkan tingkat belanja, produksi di zona euro mengalami penurunan. Industrial Production euro anjlok 20.2% di bulan Maret tingkat tahunan, setelah melemah 19.1% di bulan sebelumnya. Kondisi tersebut memperlihat rapuhnya pemulihan ekonomi global dan mendorong perkiraan suramnya pertumbuhan ekonomi zona euro di Q1 2009. ECB berpeluang meningkatkan pembelian obligasi hingga sebesar $82 miliar untuk menurunkan biaya pinjaman. ECB Lucas Papademos , ECB Paramo, ECB Juergen Stark akan berbicara pada hari ini, dapat mendorong risk aversion euro.

USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.46 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5158 1.5372 (08/01) 1.3502 (23/01)

Yen mengalami penguatan terhadap dola, berkat investor melakukan risk aversion pada sesi Asia hari ini, dimana lemahnya data Retail Sales AS dan laporan bank sentral Inggris menenai ekonomi Inggris kemarin, memberikan pandangan bahwa pemulihan ekonomi global masih terlihat rapuh, karena ekonomi AS dan Inggris masih berada dalam resesi berkepanjangan. Spekulasi bank sentral Eropa akan meningkatkan pembelian obligasi pemerintah sebesar $ 82 miliar, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang yen ketmbang euro saat ini. Penurunan tajam di indeks saham Asia hari ini, ikut berperan menguatkan yen yang mendapatkan keuntungan dari status safe haven setelah investor di Asia Pasifik melakukan risk aversion, sehingga menguntungkan dolar dan yen. Spekulasi penurunan rating hutang AS oleh lembaga pemeringkat international ikut menguatkan yen terhadap mata uang dolar, kendati laju penguatan yen akan dibatasi oleh lemahnya fundamental ekonomi Jepang yang memburuk setelah data perdagangan menunjukkan ekspor mengalami penurunan lebih lanjut.

Pound sterling mengalami tekanan lebih lanjut terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat investor global kembali melakukan risk aversion setelah saham Wall Street jatuh semalam mendorong penurunan tajam d indeks saham Asia hari ini. Lemahnya data Retail Sales dan laporan projeksi pertumbuhan BOE dalam BOE Inflation Report yang dirilis kemarin, menunjukkan bahwa perkiraan pemulihan ekonomi global terlihat terlalu dini, dan terlihat rapuh, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar sebagai safe haven di saat terjadi krisis finansial. Pound kemarin melemah ke level terendah 1.5136 karena perkiraan Bank of England yang menunjukkan bahwa ekonomi akan terkontraksi di tahun ini sebelum tumbuh di 2010. Inflasi akan melambat menjadi 0.4 persen di tahun ini. Kondisi tersebut memperlihatkan bahwa resesi di Inggris masih belum berakhir, daya tarik untuk memegang pound menjadi menurun. Terutama menjelang rilisan data inflasi dan jobless yang akan kembali mendorong risk aversion pada hari ini, sehingga berpeluang melemahkan pound dolar.

USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.1070 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7530 0.7713 (11/05) 0.6248 (02/02)

Swiss franc masih melanjutkan pelemahannya terhadap dolar di sesi Asia, di level 1.1100, menyusul jatuhnya saham dan laporan penjualan ritel AS yang lebih rendah dari prediksi, mengurangi optimisme krisis ekonomi akan berakhir. Semalam dilaporkan bahwa penjualan ritel AS turun 0,4% bulan lalu, setelah turun 1,3% bulan sebelumnya. Pasar sebelumnya memperkirakan penjualan ritel flat di April. Laporan itu mengurangi harapan akan terjadinya pemulihan ekonomi. Harapan akan terjadinya pemulihan ekonomi dari resesi mendominasi pasar dalam beberapa hari terakhir. Harapan itu muncul menyusul laporan ekonomi dari beberapa negara seperti Inggris dan Cina. Namun, laporan semalam mengecewakan pasar dan membuatnya beralih ke safe haven. Terutama dengan jatuhnya Wall Street dan bursa regional. Semalam franc melemah ke level penutupan 1.1070, dari posisi tertingginya 1.0980 dan terendah 1.1100. Siang hari ini, Swiss dijadwalkan akan merilis laporan Producer & Import Price bulan April yang diperkirakan naik 0,8% dari bulan lalu turun 0,5%.

Dolar Australia bergerak flat hari ini dari penutupan semalam 0.7529 terhadap dollar. Stabilnya aussie awal perdagangan Asia hari ini tidak lepas dari pelemahannya semalam, dimana mencuatnya kembali risk aversion seiring jatuhnya saham global dan laporan penjualan ritel AS yang lebih rendah dari prediksi, mengurangi optimisme krisis ekonomi berakhir. Mata uang berisiko seperti euro, sterling dan aussie, yang sempat menguat berkat harapan itu, kini tertekan. Faktor lainnya adalah turunnya harga komoditas, termasuk harga emas dan energy. Kini, pasar menjadi pesimis mengenai prospek ekonomi. Oleh karena itu, pasar membutuhkan bukti atau data baru. Bila ada, sentimen pasar akan membaik. Namun, dengan kurangnya even ekonomi signifikan hari ini, saham menjadi acuan utama pergerakan mata uang dan saat ini, saham regional berjatuhan. Dalam perdagangan semalam, aussie mencatat posisi tertinggi 0.7704 dan terendah 0.7510.

Technical Analysis

(Sell break 1,3600 is done:+70p) Meski adanya koreksi penurunan dalam 2 hari terakhir, EUR-USD masih menunjukkan trend bullish jangka pendek, berkat formasi bullish adanya rising wedge dan uptrend channel, didukung oleh indikator teknikal yang bullish, seperti stochastic dan MACD masih berada di teritorial positif, meski laju ADX mulai terkoreksi dan pola bearish harami menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas, jika hari ini gagal kembali menembus dan ditutup diatas former high 1.3737 (Double top/tweezer top) dan trendline resistance di 1.3719, untuk target 161.8 FE di 1.4011 dan 1.4205 (uptrend channel resistance-line). Sementara support berada di 1.3459 (trendline support yang dapat memutarbalikkan trend jangka pendek jika level tersebut ditembus. Buy 1.3450 dan buy break 1.3730 target 1.4000 stop 50p, sell break 1.3430 target 1.3200.
(Hold sell 95.40 target 94.60 stop diatas 96.00) USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola bearish dari formasi downtren channel dalam falling wedge, yang mendorong pola continuation bearish setelah indikator ADX menunjukkan trending up, stochastic menunjukkan crossing di teritorial negatif, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi rebound pada hari ini. Trend penurunan dapat berlanjut untuk trend medium-term yang telah bearish, jika level support di 94.60 ditembus untuki target 88.58 kembali. Buy 94.70 (former support) target 96.10 stop 50p, Sell diatas 96.10 target 95.00, stop 96.50 reverse buy kalo break target 97.10.
Chart GBP-USD

(-50p)GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish jangka pendek, berkat signal positif dari indikator teknikal ADX (trending up), MACD bullish dan stochastic crosing up, didukung formasi ascending triangle dan candle bullish, seharusnya masih menopang penguatan GBP-USD pada hari ini dan bahkan pekan ini, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.5160 (support line), bilamana hal itu terjadi target 1.4940 (low). Sementara potensi kenaikan terbatas berkat pola candle dark cloud cover, meski pola ascending triangle line mengarah ke 1.5385/1.5696 (200-day MA). Buy 1.5075 target 1.5300 stop 60p, buy break 1.5220 target 1.5350 stop diatas 1.5430.

AUD-USD masih berada dalam uptrend channel di daily chart seharusnya masih mempertahankan tren bullis untuk jangka pendek, meski dibayangi oleh potensi koreksi penurunan di pola falling wedge untuk target support line di 0.7478 bahkan 0.7240 (trendline support), bilamana break akan meerubah trend jangka pendek menjadi bearish. Potensi kenaikan juga terbatas berkat formasi double top di 0.7712, jika tembus 0.7910. Sell break 0.7470 target 0.7250 stop 60p, sell 0.7610 target 0.7480 (closing) stop 50p.

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Kondisi Overbought & Signal Negatif Akan Picu Profit-Taking

SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9290 9210 9375 9110 9455 9260 9555 9170 9225 9285 9400 9455 9515
Commentary

Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi rising wedge menunjukkan pola continuation bullish, meski menunjukkan signal bearish dari candle daily three black crows dan harga berada di bawah 61.8 FE di 9160 dan kegagalan penutupan harian diatas 9,574 (uptrend channel) kemarin dan lower uptrend channel di 9,465, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan. Indikator teknikal ADX terkoreksi, stochastic golden cross & MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan konsolidasi, karena volume menunjukkan penurunan disaat indeks menurun menunjukkan laju penurunan terlihat lemah, meski trend jangka pendek masih bulish selama berada diatas 8,867 (trendine) target 9,605. Potensi penurunan terbatas di support line 100.0 FE & 5-day MA di 8961/8789 di daily chart. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9000-9500.

Rekomendasi : Buy 8,960 target 9290, stop 100p, sell break 9,280 target 9060 stop 100p.

KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
180.50 178.9 178.9 182.0 182.9 179.0 185.4 178.5 179.2 180.5 182.5 183.2 184.5
Commentary

Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, karena indeks berada dalam ascending triangle, meski gagal ditutup diatas trendline 182.41 yang menunjukkan signal negatif, diikuti pola candle spinning top, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini, meski potensi penurunanpun terbatas karena kondisi teknikal stochastic bullish, MACD bullish dan ADX masih mengarah naik, seharusnya masih mendukung range trading pada hari ini. Trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 177.40 (trendline support), menggagalkan skenario bullish di bulan ini untuk target 186.85 (161.8 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 177-183.00

Rekomendasi : Sell 182.50 target 179.00 stop 183.50 (buy break target 186.00), stop 100, sell break 179.10 target 176.50 stop 100p, buy 176.60 target 179.10 stop 100p.

HSIJ9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17188 16875 17188 16775 17344 17031 17444 16353 16612 16771 17189 17448 17607
Commentary

Secara teknikal, HSIK9 masih berada dalam trend bullish, karena indeks berada dalam formasi diagonal triangle dalam uptrend channel, meski potensi penurunan dapat terjadi hari ini, berkat pola bearish harami kemarin, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini, menunjukkan pola konsolidasi dalam pola MACD yang overbought. Indeks selama ditutup dibawah resistance line di uptrend channel di 17,530, potensi kenaikan terbatas, target 17,038 (5-day MA) dan 200-day MA di 16,050 merupakan support long term. Indikator stochastic, ADX, MACD masih menunjukkan uptrend yang kuat, kendati laju kenaikan terbatas, berkat penutupan masih berada diatas 16.494. Potensi koreksi minor dapat terjadi jika indeks menembus support 16,830, untuk target 16,200 (61.8 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini : 16900-17400. Rekomendasi : Sell 17,050 target 16,850 (or closing) stop 100 p. sell break 16,830 target 16500, stop 100 poin. Buy 16495 16,765 target 17.200.

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IHSG Mendapatkan Signal Negatif dari Indikator Teknikal

Market Review
Keperkasaan saham dari grup Bakrie yang rata-rata menguat tajam dengan volume tertinggi (Rp 4.5 triliun dari total transaksi di BEI Rp 9.09 triliun) kemarin, membantu IHSG melanjutkan kenaikan dalam 2 hari terakhir, berkat isu positif dari pemilihan Boediono untuk cawapres Partai Demokrat dalam pilpres 8 Juli, serta imbas positif dari kenaikan saham lapis kedua, mengimbangi penurunan akibat aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham unggulan di sektor infrastruktur (TLKM), aneka industri (ASII), komoditi (PTBA, INCO, LSIP, ANTM, TINS). Sementara kenaikan saham Wall Street hari Selasa, ikut menopang kinerja IHSG. IHSG ditutup menguat 9.31 poin (+0.505%) di 1,851.33. investor asing tercatat membukukan net buying sebesar Rp 63.72 miliar kemarin.

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific menguat kemarin, melanjutkan rally selama 2 bulan, karena prediksi Fed Alan Greenspan mengenai sektor perumahan AS dan prediksi Olympus Corp dan Nissan Motor Jepang meningkatkan keyakinan investor.

IHSG Outlook
IHSG diperkirakan mengalami kesulitan untuk menguat hari ini, berkat perkiraan euphoria rally saham grup Bakrie tidak dapat diandalkan lebih lanjut, guna menopang kinerja IHSG yang tidak diimbangi sejumlah saham unggulan (industri, infrastruktur, komoditi pertambangan & perkebunan) yang tengah mengalami koreksi penurunan. Kekecewaan pengusaha terhadap pemilihan cawapres Boediono dari partai Demokrat dan efek negatif dari potensi penurunan indeks regional Asia karena mahalnya valuasi P/E saham di negara China, HK dan Jepang, serta data Retail Sales AS kemarin mengalami penurunan lebih dari perkiraan, dapat mendorong investor di Asia melakukan risk aversion, dapat membebani kinerja IHSG di akhir pekan ini. Meski potensi penurunan dapat dibatasi potensi kenaikan saham grup Bakrie (isu Avenue di saham BTEL) dan saham 2nd liner, diikuti prediksi pemerintah untuk inflasi di akhir tahun (5 %), dapat menopang kinerja saham finansial dan property.

Stock Picks:
* GGRM
* TRUB

Global Outlook
Munculnya kembali risk aversion diantara investor saham Asia dan AS, setelah mendapatkan signal negatif di awal pekan dari mahalnya valuasi saham Asia dan AS saat ini, spekulasi trader option saham di CBOE yang memperkirakan rally indeks saham global akan segera berakhir, diikuti laporan negatif dari prediksi ekonomi bank sentral Inggris dan Retail Sales AS bulan April tercatat lebih buruk dari perkiraan, meredam optimisme investor terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global. Meski potensi penurunan indeks saham global dapat dibatasi oleh kejutan kenaikan data Retail Sales China dan Inggris dirilis baru-baru ini dan potensi kenaikan saham defensif di saat terjadi koreksi penurunan.

Technical Analysis:
IHSG kembali mendapatkan signal negatif setelah selama mengalami konsolidasi dalam trend uptrend yang overbought, indikator teknikal ADX terkoreksi di saat indeks mengalami rebound, stochastic berada dalam kondisi bearish divergence dan overbought, volume terkoreksi turun dan pola candle shooting star menunjukkan tedensi koreksi penurunan minor. Mesk laju penurunan dapat dibatasi kondisi MACD uptrend, penutupan diatas 5-day MA di 1,842/10-day MA di 1,794/200-day MA di 1,578 (alert: MA mengarah turun). Indeks masih berada dalam diagonal triangle, dibawah resistance line berada di 1,914 (61.8 FE), masih membebani kinerja IHSG jangka menengah. Secara hitungan Elliot wave, wave 1-5 telah selesai dalam wave minor 3 impulse dalam koreksi wave primary C selama berada di bawah 2,215 (61.8 FE).
Resistance: 1886.89/1875.67/1864.45/1856.92. PP 1849.38
Support : 1838.16/1826.94/1811.87/1793.11
(Perkiraan Range Hari Ini 1,810-1,865)

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Elliott Wave Analysis : S&P Futures & GBP-USD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
S&P 500 Futures
4 Hour Chart trend: Long. Main price points: 886.50, and 940. Looking for: Corrective wave IV).The 38.2% support on the S&P Futures chart held very well during the last few sessions, and the triangle formation in black wave IV) looks to be building credibility. The market, however, needs to make two more legs before the triangle will be finally completed. Triangles are made by a five legs, labeled as waves a, b, c, d and e. If this wave count is correct then wave d) is now in process which must not break through the previous highs of wave III) and red b. Once this triangle pattern completes, we will be looking for a move to at least the 940 area.

















Gbp/Usd: Elliott Wave Analysis
4 Hour Chart trend: Long. Main price points: 1.4395. Looking for: Wave IV).
Cable is trading sharply lower at the moment from the 1.5245 highs, made on Friday. So, we have reworked the previous wave count into more large and extended black wave III) as on the first place. Prices are now trading in a corrective wave IV) right now where we will be looking for a simple zig-zag correction, with the possible lows around 38.2% of wave III) distance. In this area we can also see a support from blue wave iv of lesser degree which may be the key for a bounce higher. The wave count however, will be valid as long as the prices will be trading above 1.4395 critical area.

Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold

Daily Forex Technicals
EURUSD
Comment: Still toying with this year's highs (1.3801 on the 8th January and 1.3739 on the 19th March). It is just a matter of time before we rally through here, with the Swiss franc snapping close on the Euro's heels, behind the Yen. Strategy: Buy at 1.3690, adding to 1.3600; stop below 1.3400. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3750 for 1.3800 and then 1.4000.Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3642 " 1.3722
1.3588 1.3739*
1.3557 1.38
1.3465 1.385
1.3400* 1.3965
GBPUSD
Comment: Cable is not overbought and momentum is steadily bullish. Consolidating just under some of the highest prices so far this year (high 1.5375 8th January). We expect this to be tested some time this week noting that the slower and steadier the rallies the further they will go and the longer they will continue.Strategy: Buy at 1.5290, adding to 1.5100; stop well below 1.5000. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5375 for 1.5500 short term and then 1.5725/1.5800.Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.5264 " 1.5331
1.519 1.5354/1.5375*
1.5069 1.5535
1.5 1.5725
1.4940* 1.58
USDJPY
Comment: Dropping quickly into a large Ichimoku 'cloud', below the moving averages which are signalling a short position, and testing trendline support. Expect prices to try and hold above 95.63 (April's low) this morning and maybe all day as the US dollar is close to oversold. Over the coming fortnight, maybe for a month, we now expect the Yen to outperform other currencies so that dollar/yen and yen crosses move lower.Strategy: Attempt shorts at 96.45 but only if prepared to add to 98.00; stop above 98.65. Short term target 95.65 and then 94.50.Direction of Trade: →
Support Resistance
96.00 " 96.7
95.78/95.63* 97.35
94.95 97.95
94.15 98.83
93.55* 99.69*
Daily Forex Technicals |
EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair continued to incline to reach levels above 1.3700 before reversing back to the key support at 1.3585. We still hold our outlook to the upside with targets at 1.3815 ahead of the critical 1.3855 level which may determine the medium term trend where a breach of this level will take the pair to as far as 1.4200. This short term incline remains as far as 1.3440 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3440 and the key resistance at 1.4050
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
Support: 1.3630, 1.3585, 1.3560, 1.3500, 1.3440
Resistance: 1.3710, 1.3735, 1.3775, 1.3810, 1.3855
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3630 with targets at 1.3735 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3560
GBP
After successfully breaching the resistance levels yesterday, the Cable was able to build a solid base on the intraday and short term trend to gradually incline as it targets 1.6000. However, the pair must breach the 1.5485 level and maintain levels above 1.5190 to continue the upside trend yet we may witness a slight downside correction towards 1.5155 in an attempt to breach it and head towards 1.4850. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4860 and the key resistance at 1.5525 The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4850 remains intact with targets at 1.6600.
Support: 1.5235, 1.5190, 1.5155, 1.5070, 1.5030
Resistance: 1.5300, 1.5345, 1.5380, 1.5480, 1.5505
Recommendation: According to our analysis buy the pair above 1.5235 with targets at 1.5345 and stop loss with a four hour closing below 1.5155
JPY
The USD/JPY pair was able to reach the technical targets for the bearish pattern in an attempt to breach the key support at 96.30 yet it rebounded back to the upside to maintain trading above this level. The bullish harmonic pattern seen has been completed yet we are currently waiting for a close above 96.30 to confirm the intraday trend to the upside targeting 97.65 – 98.10 after gathering bullish momentum. This incline remains as far as 95.75 is intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 94.45 and the key resistance at 101.40. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 96.30, 95.75, 95.20, 94.85, 94.45
Resistance: 97.20, 97.65, 98.10, 98.85, 99.05
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 96.30 with targets at 97.65 and 98.10 and stop loss with four hour closing below 95.75
CHF
The Dollar versus Swissy was able to touch the 1.0980 level, which was yesterday's target; before rebounding back to the upside in an attempt to trade within a minor downside channel as seen in the above image. Our outlook remains to the downside to breach the 1.0980 level before reaching 1.0745 as an initial target before heading towards 1.0570 on the short term. This decline remains as far as 1.1300 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0745 and the key resistance at 1.1400. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245
Support: 1.0980, 1.0920, 1.0855, 1.0795, 1.0745
Resistance: 1.1075, 1.1110, 1.1165, 1.1220, 1.1265
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.0980 with targets at 1.0860 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1075.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee: Rupee tested the 49.60 levels yesterday but strengthened immediately with a strong close, boosted by dollar weakenss overseas and fresh bout of selling happening by exporters. Since the currency could not hold to its weakness even for few hours of trade , it shows it will continue to strengthen. Target maintained 48.80 (USD/INR : 49.36). Bullish.
Gold: Gold remained bullish as expected . The short term charts are showing slight correction with $917 as support. Initiate longs within $906-910 levels . Bias of gold remains bullish overall.(Gold- 925.42)
Dollar Index: DI continues to remain weak marking a newer 4 month's low below 82.20 support zone. The bias still remains on the downside heading toward 80 levels in the near term. Neutral to Bearish (DI- 82.20)
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3654(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3619, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3594. Break of the latter would result in 1.3668. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3539. Continuation will give 1.3492.Today's resistance: - 1.3725, 1.3746 and 1.3777(main). Break would give 1.3793, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3818. Break of the latter would result in 1.3850. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3871. Continuation will give 1.3896.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 95.40(main). Break would bring 95.20, where correction is possible. Then 94.94, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 94.68. If a strong impulse, we would see 94.50. Continuation would give 94.28 and 94.16.Today's resistance: - 96.60 and 96.77(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 97.08, where also a correction may be. Then 97.21. If a strong impulse, we would see 97.65. Continuation will give 97.88.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8413.58, 8389.68 and 8372.26( main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8347.50, where correction also can be. Then follows 8322.20. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8297.27. Continuation will bring 8288.44. Today's resistance: - 8505.10, 8580.80, 8606.22 and 8642.75(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8680.00, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8708.90, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8741.20. Continuation would bring 8780.63 and 8811.75.

Possible Fractal Elliott Wave Count Of Gold

Per reader request, here is a possible Elliott Wave count interpretation and simple structure forecast for Gold prices going forward. The caveat is that this is one of various Elliott Wave counts, and I’m only taking into account the recent fractal wave structure.This count implies that we are in the 5th Wave up in terms of the monthly chart, and might even be displaying Wave 1 (which is a 5-wave structure) of that 5th wave… or it could be completing the terminal 5th wave… but I don’t want to get too complex into the count at the moment.The main idea is that odds seem to favor higher prices yet to come for gold with the exception that prices stay above the $860 per ounce level. Any bullishness would come into question should prices break down beneath $860.

Otherwise, the Elliott Structure shown above implies that we will be breaking to new highs within the coming months, though I am not showing specific Fibonacci price targeting (which Elliotticians use to project price targets as functions of prior waves).Beyond Elliott, we’re having another “Cradle Trade” forming as the EMAs align at the $900 level which - for any bullishness to occur - should hold as immediate support. A failure at $900 will likely set-up a test of the $860 level before long so watch that level closely.Standard Elliott Wave disclaimers apply - Elliott Wave analysis is one of many forms of market analysis, and no technique or strategy (that I know) can guarantee 100% accurate market forecasting. However, it can be helpful in expanding your perspective to see larger structures and, more importantly, a possible pathway for prices to take into the future… though a pathway based on odds and probabilities, not certainties.

George Soros Is Now Changing His Mind About The Economy

By Andrew Mickey on May 13, 2009
George Soros is one of the most successful investors in the world. His Quantum Fund averaged 30% annual returns for more than two decades. He’s also credited as the man who “broke the bank of England” when he scored an estimated $1 billion payday by betting big against the British pound.As you might expect, Soros has become a closely followed man in the financial markets.Soros’ success has been a bit different than many of the other investing greats. He’s not one of the great value investors who deliver outsized returns over the long run like Warren Buffett, Marty Whitman, and David Dreman. He’s not a great stock picker who catches onto the next big thing very early.His success has been attributed to how he thinks more than anything else.The thing which has made Soros great is his ability to admit when he’s wrong. He’s willing to change his mind. When circumstances change he changes right along with them.

Basically, Soros has not made a habit of arguing with the market. When the market goes against him, he assumes it’s because of something he missed, didn’t consider, or didn’t know about and gets out.As a result, when Soros changes his mind, investors should take note. A previous call he has made is going wrong and he’s flipping around. In this case, his previous call was a bearish one. Now, he’s changing his tune. Investors who take note will likely be in a great position for the next few months.

You Can’t Fight the Market
Last November the markets seemed like they were never going to turn around again. Investors who leveraged up on all sorts of assets were forced to sell. A near panic set in across the country. Big banks were on the verge of collapse and the economy ground to a halt.In response, the U.S. unveiled one the largest economic stimulus packages in history. The government promised a new regime of regulation. And, we’re seeing the impact now, it started pumping massive amounts of cash into banks, bankrupt companies, and “the system.”At the time, Soros was called to testify to the U.S. Congress. His high profile status as manager of one of the world’s top performing hedge funds made him an expert in the field. It also made him a perfect scapegoat for a showy Congress to “get to the bottom of this.”Soros discussed the role of hedge funds in the downturn and future regulations which should be applied to the industry.Soros’ comments on the economy at the time were pretty dire too. He said, “A deep recession is now inevitable and the possibility of a depression cannot be ruled out.”

A Recovery in Sight
Jump ahead five months and, at least, according to the markets, the economic situation has improved drastically. It’s still not great. Realistically, it’s not even good. But it’s not terrible. And that’s what the markets were forecasting back in November (remember, the Dow (^DJI: 8469.11 +50.34 +0.60%) is only up about 10% from November lows).Soros has even changed his mind too. In an interview during the weekend, he said, “The economic freefall has been stopped, the collapse of the financial system averted. National economic stimulus programs are starting to take effect. The downward dynamic is easing.”That’s the key here. Soros had been expecting a steady economic decline. At best, a long, slow decline. At worst, an outright depression.Since then, a lot has changed. The more than $1 trillion in excess government spending and new printed dollar bills has started to have an impact on the economy. Businesses have slowed down making layoffs, consumers have picked up their spending a little bit, and industrial activity is declining at a slower rate.This puts us at a midpoint for the economy. A near-term recovery is certainly possible. A few of the pieces of the puzzle are coming together. Housing sales are starting to recover in the U.S. Consumers are spending again. Companies are raising new capital in the markets to expand and invest.There’s one much bigger indicator which is integral to any recovery starting to turn up.

A Nation of Gamblers Investors
The biggest piece of the economy recovery puzzle is also the most unpredictable - the stock market.As we’ve looked at in the past, the stock market has become an integral part of the U.S. economy. Almost 70% of households own equities - either directly or indirectly through mutual funds. As a result, a portion of their nominal wealth depends on the performance of the overall stock market.Right now, the market is anticipating a big part of the recovery. The steady climb has helped push the account balances on those 401K and brokerage accounts up quite a bit. Granted, most are still much lower than they were a year ago, but after watching them fall 60% and staying there, many people had to get somewhat used the new levels.Now that’s changing. A 30% rise in the market has created a renewed feeling of paper wealth. Although it’s not real wealth, this will have an impact on many economic choices. For instance, a $30K and $100K retirement account will go a long way in helping many people choose whether to go out or stay in for dinner tonight.As a result, we’re witnessing the virtuous part of the cycle here. It’s fueled by hope, greed, and high expectations.Of course, those aren’t sturdy pillars for any economic recovery, but they’ll do the job for now. But don’t get used to it for long.

The Race to Nowhere
Right now, we’re in the relatively good times again. Yes, there will be sharp downswings in the market (like yesterdays). They will test the nerves of all investors. But from this point there is still quite a bit of upside potential here.There’s more stimulus money on the way. Only a small portion of it has been doled out so far and we probably haven’t felt all the effects of this one-time economic jolt in the arm.Also, the Fed is continuing to use every tool it has (and creating new ones) to get dollars circulating again.Of course, it’s all a big race to nowhere.Although I’m excited over the short-term - I believe the window of opportunity is wide open - I’m not going to get too caught up in the recovery when it does come. It will be short-lived for many, many reasons.

From a U.S. perspective, the amount of regulation coming into many different sectors of the economy will be a massive draw on productive resources.Banking and finance will be the hardest hit. For instance, if you’re a bank which can’t repay TARP funds, your future is pretty much set. You will lose a lot of market share to banks which can operate more freely and attract the best people.Another easy scapegoat will be the lenders of most convenience - credit cards and payday loans. We’ve already looked at the bill aimed at de facto shutting down the payday loan industry. Credit card providers are getting their turn next.It’s not just the bankers and lenders who have been vilified though, there have been plenty of others (by the way, if you look at history, vilifying lenders is nothing new and is always wildly popular - but it never, ever ends well). You also have the health insurers, Big Pharma, coal producers, etc.

Then there’s the auto bailout debacle. The short-term tangible impact will be good for the economy. Joe-the-autoworker has a much more secure job for the time being. The long-term consequences, however, will force companies with unionized workforces to pay higher interest rates because they’re riskier borrowers. Also, wait until Joe-the-autoworker asks Joe-the-autoworker for a raise - under the new union ownership structure, Chrysler is a ticking time bomb. In the end, all of that will drive up costs which will be passed onto the consumer.Then there’s the “global warming” (or is it “climate change” today…or “energy security” today) initiatives. The increase in electricity costs related to the green initiatives will prove very, very costly over the years.Oh, and then there are the underfunded pensions, demographic issues, ballooning U.S. budget deficit, tax hikes, and…we could go on and on, but you get the point.I’m not unrealistic in being bullish right now. There is a lot of money on the sidelines and it’s working its way back into the markets. The process of it all coming in will take a long while. Until then though, I recommend riding the virtuous cycle upwards for all it’s worth.

It’s Never Different This Time
There will be a time to turn bearish again. After all, bear markets almost always end the same way. At the real bottom (which is likely a couple years away), you’ll see P/E ratios of 6 to 8, yields of 6% to 10%, and no one caring about stocks anymore.We haven’t seen any of those. We haven’t even seen one of them. But we will see them and we’ll be prepared.Once we see a few things like a few months of GDP growth, a U.S. president patting himself on the back for “saving the economy” and maybe going as far as declaring the recession over (that would make it really easy to know “the top”), the nose-bleed valuations return to different sectors, we’ll be ready to take action.In the end though, I want you to understand that it’s not often Soros changes his mind, but when he does, it’s best to take note.

Investror Meningkatkan Toleransi Resiko, Berperan Melemahkan Dolar AS

USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
82.03 (-46) 89.624 (04/03) 79.631 (02/01) 1.3670 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)

Dollar AS melemah ke level terendah 7-pekan terhadap euro setelah laporan dari pemerintah China memberikan bukti bahwa penurunan ekonomi terburuk telah berakhir, menurunkan permintaan untuk mata uang dolar sebagai safe haven. Dolar juga melemah terhadap yen ke level terendah 2-pekan berkat mantan comptroller general, David Walker mengatakan di Financial Times, bahwa rating AS AAA mungkin akan dipangkas. Dolar Australia menguat setelah lebih baik dari data penjualan ritel China (14.8%) mendorong optimisme ekonomi terbesar ketiga di dunia membaik. Won Korea Selatan mencapai level tertinggi 7-bulan karena investor asing meningkatkan kepemilikan saham lokal untuk hari ke-9. semalam, mantan Chairman Fed Alan Greenspan mengatakan penurunan di sektor perumahan AS mungkin mencapai bottom dan perusahaan sedikit mengalami kesulitan mendapatkan kapital. Laporan defisit perdagangan tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan, tercatat $ 27.6 miliar di bulan Maret dibandingkan konsensus $ 29 miliar. Data tersebut memicu perkiraan data GDP Q1 sebelumnya tercatat -6.1% mungkin akan direvisi membaik. Hari ini pasar akan mengamati data Retail Sales AS, diperkirakan unchanged (0.0%) di bulan April dari -1.2% di bulan Maret, dapat memberikan pandangan positif untuk ekonomi dan menurunkan daya tarik kepada dolar karena investor akan memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi.

Euro melanjutkan penguatan terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah data Retail Sales China meningkat 14.8% di bulan April, lebih tinggi dari perkiraan, Industrial Output meningkat 7.3% dari tahun sebelumnya. Euro juga mendapatkan keuntungan dari potensi penurunan rating hutang AAS milik AS, dan kenaikan harga komoditi global (minyak tembus $ 60/barel kemarin) meningkatkan permintaan untuk euro. Kemarin, euro menguat melampaui level $ 1.37 terhadap dolar ke level tertinggi 7-pekan karena toleransi resiko meningkat. Keyakinan investor global meningkat dimotivasi investor yang mulai meninggalkan dolar AS. Sementara, komentar anggota dewan ECB Axel Webber bahwa tiada rencana untuk ekspansi pembelian aset bank sentral ikut mendorong penguatan euro. Euro pada hari ini berpotensi menguat untuk hari kedua sebelum laporan Uni Eropa menunjukkan ekonomi mungkin menunjukkan kontraksi di data produksi industri melambat di bulan Maret , menambah bukti bahwa resesi di regional 16 negara mulai mereda. Dimana sebelumnya anggota dewan ECB Nout Wellink mengatakan memburuknya ekonomi Eropa terlihat melambat. Euro dapat melanjutkan penguatan terhadap dolar, jika data Retail Sales AS tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar, karena investor kembali memburu aset yang beresiko.

USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
96.42 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5294 1.5372 (08/01) 1.3502 (23/01)

Yen melemah terhadap dolar dan euro di sesi perdagangan Asia, setelah 2 laporan dari China (retail sales & Industrial production) memberikan bukti resesi global terburuk mungkin telah berakhir dan data trade balance Jepang merosot tajam akibat anjloknya ekspor. Yen sempat menguat ke level tertinggi Y 95.79 terhadap dolar, setelah pasar mendapatkan laporan dari mantan comptroller general AS, David Walker, mengatakan rating hutang AAA milik AS mungkin akan diturunkan dan mengatakan pemerintah AS seharusnya menciptakan “fiscal future commission” untuk mengatasi keuangan negara, dimana komisi tersebut seharusnya mempertimbangkan semua opsi termasuk kontrol anggaran, membuat program reformasi dan menaikkan pajak. Kemarin yen menguat terhadap dolar kemarin, setelah data ekspor China merosot tajam menurunkan permintaan untuk aset beresiko. Trader berbalik optimis setelah data Retail Sales Inggris tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan, menguatkan yen 171 pips dari level terendah Y 97.83 ke level terendah Y 96.12 dan ditutup di 96.44. Investor individu di Jepang meningkatkan perkiraan ke level tertinggi 6-bulan bahwa yen akan melemah karena ekonomi stabil dan memiliki posisi short (Sell) yen sebesar $ 125 miliar. Pasar hari ini akan mengamati data Retail Sales AS.

Pound sterling terkoreksi di sesi Asia terhadap dolar, ke level terendah 1.5266 dari level tertinggi 4-bulan di 1.5352 semalam. Lebih baiknya laporan ekonomi dari China dan data ekonomi Inggris kemarin, menopang kinerja pound sterling hingga hari ini. Laporan kemungkinan penurunan rating hutang AAA di AS berkat laporan dari the Financial Times hari ini, ikut mendorong investor memburu aset yang beresiko seperti pound yang memiliki suku bunga yang lebih tinggi ketimbang dolar AS. Pound juga menguat terhadap euro setelah laporan dari Office for National Statistics Inggris mengatakan Industrial Production Inggris anjlok ke level terlambat dalam 13 bulan terakhir, tercatat turun 0.1% dari bulan Februari, dibandingkan perkiraan penurunan 0.8%. Sementara British Retail Consortium melaporkan penjualan toko melonjak di bulan April dari tahun sebelumnya, tercatat naik 6.3% di bulan lalu dari 0.6% di bulan Maret. Pada hari ini, Inggris akan merilis data tenaga kerja bulan April, dimana seharusnya menunjukkan perbaikan mengikuti jejak data serupa di AS dan BOE Inflation Report dapat memberikan pandangan suku bunga dan kebijakan Quantitative Easing.

USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.1015 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7684 0.7713 (11/05) 0.6248 (02/02)

Swiss franc masih melanjutkan penguatan terhadap dolar di sesi Asia, ke level tertinggi 1.0980, berkat investor yang kembali meningkatkan toleransi resiko setelah sejumlah data ekonomi dari China hari ini, AS semalam, mendorong perkiraan bahwa resesi global terburuk mulai telah mereda, meningkatkan keyakinan kepada investor global untuk menjual aset safe haven seperti dolar dan yen. Laporan peluang penurunan rating hutang AAA milik AS, ikut membebani dolar AS pada hari ini. Sementara kemarin anggota dewan kebijakan bank sentral Swiss Thomas Jordan mengatakan bank sentral akan mempertahankan kebijakan yang ekspansi untuk mencegah deflasi dan akan melanjutkan pembelian obligasi dan mata uang. Pernyataan anggota bank sentral SNB, mendorong perkiraan mereka akan membatasi laju penguatan CHF terhadap dolar, terutama menjelang Retail Sales AS yang dapat mendorong investor memburu aset yang beresiko.

Dolar Australia menguat untuk hari kedua hari ini terhadap dolar dan yen karena kenaikan saham Asia mendorong spekulasi keuntungan korporasi akan pulih karena ekonomi global mulai stabil. Dolar Selandia Baru sedikit tidak berubah. Aussie menguat ke level tertinggi 7-bulan terhadap dolar setelah laporan dari mantan comtroller general menulis di Financial Times bahwa rating hutang AAA milik AS mungkin akan diturunkan. Pemulihan ekonomi global berkat data ekonomi China hari ini tercatat diatas perkiraan dan data AS semalam meningkatkan perkiraan revisi data GDP Q1 yang lebih baik dari -6.1%, masih memberikan keuntungan kepada aussie dan kiwi, karena investor kembali memburu aset yang beresiko menjelang data Retail Sales AS malam ini dimana dapat mencatat lebih baik dari perkiraan mengikuti jejak China dan Inggris, dapat menguatkan Aussie kembali.

Technical Analysis
EUR-USD menunjukkan trend bullish jangka pendek, berkat formasi bullish adanya rising wedge dan uptrend channel, didukung oleh indikator teknikal yang bullish, seperti ADX trend up, stochastic dan MACD masih berada di teritorial positif, terutama jika hari ini dapat menembus dan ditutup diatas former high 1.3737 yang juga merupakan trendline, untuk target 161.8 FE di 1.4011 dan 1.4195 (uptrend channel resistance-line). Sementara support berada di 1.3596/1.3532 yang dapat memutarbalikkan trend jangka pendek jika level tersebut ditembus. Sell 1.3730 dan reverse buy break 1.3750 target 1.4000 stop 50p, sell break 1.3600 target 1.3430.
USDJPY menunjukkan pola bearish dari formasi downtren channel, kendati laju penurunan terbatas selama bertahan di atas rising wege support line di 95.55, untuk target kembali naik ke 98.10/98.67 (10 & 35 day MA). Tetapi jika ditutup dibawah support line di 94.80 (downtrend channel line), akan merubah trend jangka pendek menjadi bearish, target 93.55/91.40. Buy break 97.20 (former support) target 98.10 stop 50p, buy diatas 96.00 target 98.10, stop 95.40 (reverse sell target 93.60.
Chart GBP-USD

GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish jangka pendek, berkat signal positif dari indikator teknikal ADX (trending up), MACD bullish dan stochastic crosing up, didukung formasi ascending triangle dan candle bullish, seharusnya masih menopang penguatan GBP-USD pada hari ini dan bahkan pekan ini, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.5160 (support line), bilamana hal itu terjadi target 1.4940 (low). Sementara potensi kenaikan masih tetap terbuka terutama jika menembus ascending triangle line di 1.5385 target 1.5696 (200-day MA). Buy 1.5220 target 1.5380 stop 50p, sell 1.5380 target 1.5220 stop diatas 1.5430.

USD-CHF masih mempertahankan trend bearish jangka pendek, karena masih berada dalam formasi downtrend channel dan indikator teknikal yang mennjukkan penurunan diimbangi dengan ADX yang trending up, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi penurunan, kecuali jika ditutup diatas resistance line di 1.140 (161.8 FE). Sementara support berada di 1.0940 jika tembus akan memberikan pola continuation bearish target 1.0855/1.0700. Buy break 1.110 target 1.1230 stop 50p, sell 1.100 target 1.0940 (closing) stop 50p.

Indeks Regional Asia

SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9290 9210 9375 9110 9455 9260 9555 9225 9270 9310 9395 9440 9480
Commentary

Secara teknikal, SSIM9 berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi rising wedge menunjukkan pola continuation bullish, meski kegagalan penutupan harian diatas 9,546 (uptrend channel) kemarin dan lower uptrend channel di 9,435, diikuti pola candle spinning top, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan, terutama jika indeks ditutup dibawah 9,181 (61.8 FE) hari ini. Indikator teknikal ADX trending up, stochastic golden cross & MACD bullish, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan, karena volume menunjukkan penurunan disaat indeks menurun menunjukkan laju penurunan terlihat lemah, meski trend jangka pendek masih bulish selama berada diatas 8,845 (trendine) target 9,605. Potensi penurunan terbatas di support line 100.0 FE & 5-day MA di 9305/9182 (61.8% Fibo Expansion) di daily chart. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9200-9550.

Rekomendasi : Sell 9450 target 9295, stop 100p, sell break 9,280 target 9060 stop 100p.

KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
180.50 178.9 178.9 182.0 182.9 179.0 185.4 177.6 178.4 179.4 181.3 182.1 183.1
Commentary

Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, karena indeks berada dalam ascending triangle, dimana telah menembus trendline di 181.90 kendati gagal ditutup diatas level tersebut, mendapatkan signal negatif, diikuti pola candle dojis setelah, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini, didukung oleh kegagalan indeks ditutup diatas downtrend line di 180.00 untuk ke-8-hari nya, meski potensi penurunanpun terbatas karena kondisi teknikal stochastic bullish, MACD bullish dan ADX terkoreksi turun, seharusnya masih mendukung range trading pada hari ini. Trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 175.30 (trendline support), menggagalkan skenario bullish di bulan ini untuk target 186.85 (161.8 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 178-183.00

Rekomendasi : Sell 182.50 target 179.00 stop 183.50 (buy break target 186.00), stop 100, sell break 179.10 target 175.00 stop 100p (trailing stop di 179.10 jika harga turun dibawah 176.00).

HSIJ9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
17188 16875 17188 16775 17344 17031 17444 16482 16628 16908 17334 17480 17760
Commentary

Secara teknikal, HSIK9 masih berada dalam trend bullish, karena indeks berada dalam formasi diagonal triangle dalam uptrend channel, meski laju penurunan dapat terhenti, berkat pola bullish harami kemarin, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan dan membatasi potensi penurunan hari ini, menunjukkan pola konsolidasi dalam pola MACD yang overbought. Indeks selama ditutup dibawah resistance line di uptrend channel di 17,508, potensi kenaikan terbatas, target 16,962 (5-day MA) dan 200-day MA di 16,240 merupakan support long term. Indikator stochastic, ADX, MACD masih menunjukkan uptrend yang kuat, kendati laju kenaikan terbatas berkat penutupan dibawah 100.0 FE di 17,193. Potensi koreksi minor dapat terjadi jika indeks menembus support 16,830, untuk target 16,200 (61.8 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini : 16900-17400. Rekomendasi : Sell 17,680 target 16,200 (or closing) stop 100 p. sell 17,450 target 17000, stop 100 poin. (-50 poin), sell break 16,765 target 16,500.