Euro Weakens After Trichet Says ECB Must Do Everything Possible

(Bloomberg) -- The euro fell to a one-month low against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said the central bank must do everything possible to boost confidence, signaling he may cut interest rates further.The Dollar Index rose for a fourth day before a U.S. report that may show consumer confidence in the world’s largest economy increased for a second month, adding to evidence its recession may be easing. South Korea’s won gained for a sixth week, its longest winning streak in 18 months, on optimism record-low borrowing costs and government stimulus plans will help encourage economic growth.

The euro dropped to $1.3104 as of 8:01 a.m. in London from $1.3186 in New York yesterday. It fell as low as $1.3068, the weakest since March 18, and is heading for a second weekly loss. The currency slid to 130.32 yen from 130.90 yen. The dollar was at 99.54 yen from 99.27 yen.The won gained 0.1 percent this week to 1,331.55 per dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched a three- month high of 1,298.05 on April 10, and has gained 16.4 percent since March 6.

‘Ambiguity’

Trichet also said in a speech in Tokyo today that any uncertainty about the direction of policy will postpone a recovery in the 16-nation region’s economy, damping speculation there is policy disagreement within the central bank.“Any ambiguity in our medium-term policy direction would delay the return of sustainable prosperity, because that would undermine confidence, which is the most precious ingredient in the present circumstances,” Trichet said. ECB council member Axel Weber said April 15 the bank shouldn’t cut rates below 1 percent, putting him at odds with policy makers who say borrowing costs must fall close to zero. Council members George Provopoulos from Greece and Athanasios Orphanides of Cyprus have indicated they may support cutting the 1.25 percent target rate below 1 percent and purchasing debt to pump money into the economy.

The ECB will lower its benchmark rate by a quarter- percentage point to 1 percent at its May 7 meeting, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.The yen fell against nine of the 10 most-traded Asian currencies outside Japan today on speculation a gain in stocks will encourage investors to buy more higher-yielding assets. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of regional shares rose 0.7 percent and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 1.7 percent.

‘Fear Gauge’
The VIX index, a measure of market volatility known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” fell as low as 34.88 yesterday, the least since Sept. 26, indicating traders are becoming more confident about stock market advances.

Dollar Index
The Dollar Index advanced before the release of the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment today. Sentiment increased to 58.5 in April from 57.3 in March, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 53,000 to 610,000 in the week ended April 11, the fewest since January, the Labor Department said yesterday in Washington.

“Traditionally, the U.S. economy picked up ahead of the U.K., Asia and the euro zone,” Benedikt Germanier, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a research note yesterday. “Accordingly, we would favor to be long the U.S. dollar and the British pound against the euro.” A long position is a bet that an asset will rise.The Dollar Index, which the ICE uses to track the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, rose 0.5 percent to 85.671.South Korea’s currency has gained 3.9 percent versus the dollar this month, after surging 11 percent in March, as signs the global recession is abating bolster demand for emerging- market assets.“Overall the won’s uptrend is valid though the pace of gains may not be as fast as last month,” said Jo Hyun Suk, a currency dealer with Korea Exchange Bank in Seoul. “Demand and supply of dollars are well balanced as exporters settle deals around mid-1,300, while importers buy on dips in the dollar.”

Indonesia’s Rupiah Headed for Weekly Gain on Election Optimism

(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s rupiah was headed for its biggest weekly gain of the year as optimism President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will be re-elected bolsters confidence in the nation’s assets.The rupiah is the only gainer this year among Asia’s 10 most-traded currencies after Yudhoyono, who plans to stand for re-election in July, won the support of more than half of respondents in a poll following parliamentary elections last week. Indonesia yesterday raised $650 million from its first- ever international sale of Islamic dollar bonds, attracting orders for more than six times the debt on offer.

The rupiah surged 5.5 percent this week to 10,720 per dollar as of 10:08 a.m. in Jakarta, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency, which rose 0.1 percent today, has gained 1.7 percent this year. It yesterday reached a four-month high of 10,660.Foreign investors bought more Indonesian stocks than they sold on each of the last four trading days.The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of shares rose 1.4 percent today as earnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and falling U.S. jobless claims heightened speculation a global recession is easing. The Jakarta Composite Index of shares climbed 0.4 percent, set for an 11 percent weekly gain, its biggest advance since August 2007.

Re-Election Hopes
Non-deliverable forwards contracts signal traders have pared bets on how far the rupiah will fall in a month, predicting a drop of 0.5 percent to 10,765 per dollar, after indicating a rate of 11,475 last week. Forwards are agreements in which assets are bought and sold at current prices for delivery at a future specified time and date.Yudhoyono was favored by 53 percent of 4,200 people who cast their ballots in the April 9 contest, the Indonesian Survey Institute’s exit-survey said yesterday. A re-election of Yudhoyono would enable him to push through with policies aimed at reviving economic growth.Economic growth will accelerate to 5 percent next year from as much as 4.5 percent in 2009, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati predicted this week.

The S&P 500 And Elliot Wave Definitions

By Corey Rosenbloom on April 17, 2009
I’m finding the “Diagonal, Wedge, Trend Channel, or Rounded Reversal” discussion to be interesting, and so I thought I’d take a moment to define what a Leading Diagonal and Ending Diagonal are as defined from A.J. Frost and Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Principle book.
Let’s start first with an Ending Diagonal:

















According to Robert Prechter (p. 37),

“An ending diagonal occurs primarily in the fifth wave position at times when the preceding move has gone ‘too far, too fast.” A Very small percentage of diagonals appear in the C-Wave position of A-B-C formations…. In all cases, they are found at the termination points of larger patterns. A contracting diagonal takes the wedge shape within two converging lines.”“A rising ending diagonal is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level from which it began and typically much further.”

On the other hand, let’s look now at Prechter’s definition of a “Leading Diagonal:”














“It has recently come to light that a diagonal occasionally appears in the Wave 1 position of impulses and in the Wave A position of Zig-Zags. In the few examples we have, the subdivisions appear to be the same: 3-3-3-3-3, although in two cases, they can be labeled 5-3-5-3-5, so the jury is still out on a strict definition.”

“Analysts must be aware of this pattern to avoid mistaking it for a far more common development, a series of first and second waves. A Leading Diagonal in the Wave 1 position is typically followed by a deep retracement.”

Further, “[leading diagonals] were not originally discovered by Ralph N. Elliott but have appeared enough times and over a long enough period that the authors are convinced of their validity.”

In today’s pattern

As some readers have astutely indicated, what we have shaping up today is more of a “Leading Diagonal” instead of an “Ending Diagonal,” and have noted the subtle differences.If we assume that March 6th was Primary Wave 3’s low, then we are now in Primary Wave 4, and have most likely just seen the majority of Wave A take place, and should be expecting a Wave B down which will be followed by a Wave C as I’ve drawn out in the above image.As such, we need to eliminate “Ending Diagonal” as a consideration and look into whether this pattern is forming a “Leading Diagonal” under the definitions I have quoted from Mr. Prechter.

Either way, the implication is the same for the next likely swing - down - but the future predicted swings change after that… and also we are not in a bull market and can in no way count four waves of an impulse pattern, and thus cannot consider this ‘wedge’ formation an “Ending Diagonal.”It’s also quite possible that we just experienced Wave 3 of the Leading Diagonal and not the final 5th wave - indeed it does seem there could be a slight bit of room for price to ‘play’ inside the trend channels.Laying Elliott Wave aside, this all could just be a very simple bearish rising wedge - to chart this pattern, just take off the specific numbers from the diagram and note the converging trendlines.Keep watching the S&P 500 price very closely for further clues as we get them.

Cheap Oil Forever: Why Prices Will Keep Falling

By Mark Perry on April 17, 2009
One idea still has the power to capture imaginations and markets: it is that commodities like oil, copper, grains and gold are all destined to rise over time. Lots of smart people believe that last year’s swoon in commodities prices represented a short pause in a long-term bull market.It’s a view rooted in powerful and real trends, like the growth of China and India, the decline in global reserves (many of the world’s biggest and best oilfields are tapped out), fears over resource nationalization (independent oil firms now control only 20 percent of global reserves) and long-term underinvestment in energy and agriculture, which hampers supply.Yet the fact is that the world has faced all these issues before, and for the past 200 years, commodity prices have been trending downwards, thanks to new technologies, greater efficiency in extraction and the substitution of one commodity for another (which explains the high correlation between commodities prices).

Bank Credit Analyst, a research firm based in Montreal, has data showing major industrial commodity prices are 75% below where they were in the year 1800, after adjusting for inflation. Despite all the worries over “peak oil,” the fact is that the major bear markets in oil have been demand, rather than supply led. And when demand eventually picks up, there’s usually some new alternative (nuclear energy, natural gas, green technologies) waiting to pick up some of the slack.The real price of oil today is now at the same level as in 1976 and, before that, in the 1870s, when oil was first put to mass use in the United States. This long-term price decline is due mainly to the constant discovery of new fields and greater energy efficiency, making nonsense of the idea that the world is rapidly running out of oil. The experience of the 1980s is instructive in the current context as well.

Japan and Europe continued to grow strongly in the 1980s, and yet oil consumption remained essentially flat through that decade as both the regions strived to achieve better fuel efficiency and switched to alternative sources of energy, such as nuclear power. Similarly, 90 percent of the growth in new oil capacity since 2004 has come from biofuels, synthetic oil and natural-gas liquids. As countries get richer, their per capita consumption of commodities declines. It’s a myth, then, that the boom in China and India will inexorably drive up oil and other commodity prices.

At some point, of course, commodities will spike again, but only temporarily. To date, the centuries-old slide in prices has been marked by long bear markets and short bull runs. Data from CSFB shows that the average bull market in oil has lasted from four to nine years, and the average bear market from 11 to 27 years. The bull market that ended last summer saw prices rise tenfold over nine years, mirroring the duration and magnitude of the previous bull market, which ended in 1979 (see chart above). That was followed by a bear market that lasted 20 years. If history is any guide, we’re only at the beginning of another long one.

4 Sectors That Could Be The Next Bull Market Leaders

By Guy Lerner on April 17, 2009
If I told you that the four sectors with the most potential to undergo a secular trend change are semiconductors, housing, retail, and airlines you would probably say “wow”. Certainly, that would be a good broad base rally to get excited about if these sectors could provide leadership. Of course, there is the current dynamic of an overbought market within the context of a longer term bear market, but I believe that these sectors are setting up to be the next bull market leaders.

Semiconductors
I first mentioned the semiconductor sector in the article, “Semiconductor Sector: Potential For Secular Run”, back on March 20, 2009. At that time I stated: I like to seek out assets or sectors where the secular winds will propel prices higher. In other words, I am looking for the “next big thing”, and the semiconductor sector would qualify. From a technical perspective, this sector has all the right attributes to undergo a prolong run.

I went on to say:

The technical evidence suggests that “the bottom” is in for semiconductors.
Figure 1 is a monthly chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index (SOXX: 0.00 N/A N/A). The “next big thing” indicator is in the lower panel, and we can see it is in the zone where a secular trend change is typically launched from. A monthly close over the simple 10 month moving average within the context of a new bull market would be a very positive development.
Housing
Figure 2 is a monthly chart of the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index (symbol: $HGX). Once again, the “next big thing” indicator is in the lower panel, and it is in the “zone”. The housing index broke below the lower blue trend line back in October, 2008, but in the past 2 months this trend line was recaptured; this is bullish. Confirmation of higher prices would come on a monthly close over the black trend line or the 10 month moving average especially if the broader market is in bullish mode.
Retail
Figure 3 is a monthly chart of the CBOE S&P Retail Index (symbol: $RLX.X) with the “next big thing” indicator in the lower panel. It seems very likely that the retail sector index will close the month over its simple 10 month moving average, and I would view this as a bullish development provided the overall market winds are favorable.
Airlines Figure 4 is a monthly chart of the AMEX Airline Index (^XAL: 18.45 +0.24 +1.32%) with the “next big thing” indicator in the lower panel. The price action has been bullish from two perspectives: 1) it seems likely that price will close the month above the down sloping, dashed trend line; and 2) this will be a close above a prior pivot low point (noted with red arrows). Closes below a pivot or a trend line that quickly reverse are bullish.

So let’s summarize.
I have given the case for intermediate term bearishness starting next week.
Today I have presented 4 sectors that might be leaders in the next bullish run; certainly, having the overall market move higher would be a necessary tailwind to the development of these secular stories.

Daily Technical Analysis Forex

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus the dollar declined to breach the key support at 1.3110 after continuous pressure to the downside. All we need now is a confirmation with four hour closing below this level to open the way for the pair towards 1.2905 and then an attempt to breach the minor support to complete the targets for the technical pattern at 1.2500. The decline remains with a four hour closing below 1.3110 and as far as 1.3260 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2905 and the key resistance at 1.3450.The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.
Support: 1.3035, 1.29901, .2905, 1.2875, 1.2825
Resistance: 1.3110, 1.3190, 1.3260, 1.3295, 1.3330
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.3110 with targets at 1.2905 and stop loss with four-hour closing above 1.3260
GBP
The GBP/USD pair is still struggling to the change the intraday and short term trends to the downside after the 1.5070 resistance level was able to halt further inclines resulting in the pair to hit a high of only 1.4940 before reversing back to the downside near the support level which has now become a pivot point and the neckline for a possible bearish technical pattern. Targets for the pattern are at 1.4605 yet the pair must close below 1.4835 and breach the support zone between 1.4725 – 1.4715 to confirm the short term downside trend and complete the targets. This decline remains as far as 1.4960 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4345 and the key resistance at 1.5460.The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440.
Support: 1.4835, 1.4765, 1.4725, 1.4690, 1.4605
Resistance: 1.4890, 1.4960, 1.5030, 1.5070, 1.5170
Recommendation According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.4835 with targets at 1.4725 and 1.4605 and stop loss with four-hour closing above 1.4960
JPY
The Dollar versus the Japanese Yen is still pressuring the 99.40 resistance level as we see the formation of an ascending triangle alongside a bullish technical patter meeting at the above mentioned level. It is expected to witness a successful breakout f the level to face the next resistance at 100.10 before attempting to reach the pivot point for the short term upside trend at 100.75 where a breach of this level will take the pair to levels above 103.00. We wait for a four hour close above 99.40 to confirm the upside movements where a reverse to the downside to close below it will take the pair down to 98.15 and 97.40 respectively. The trading range for today is among the key support at 96.00 and the key resistance at 101.45.The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60.
Support: 98.90, 98.15, 97.40, 96.50, 96.00
Resistance: 99.70, 100.10, 100.75, 101.00, 101.45
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 98.90 with targets at 100.10 and stop loss with four-hour closing below 98.15
CHF
The dollar versus the Swissy continued its gradual incline within a minor ascending channel to target levels among 1.1615 – 1.1635. The dollar strength that has been evident since yesterday makes us believe that the pair may breach the above mentioned level to reach 1.1725 and 1.1815 respectively only if we witness a four hour closing above 1.1635 and as far as the key support for the channel at 1.1300 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0975 and the key resistance at 1.1900.The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.1460, 1.1440, 1.1405, 1.1350, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1615, 1.1635, 1.1680, 1.1725, 1.1815
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.1460 with targets at 1.1635 and stop loss with four-hour closing below 1.1300
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Interminable drift as it remains stuck below the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud' (which gets very thin next week). Possibly the lagging Chikou Span will get support from Fibonacci retracement and the candles of 26 days ago. A sustained break above 1.3400 might turn momentum bullish.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3100; stop below 1.3000. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3350 and again above 1.3400 for 1.3600 and then more.
Direction of Trade: ↗
Support Resistance
1.3100 " 1.32
1.3065 1.327
1.3 1.3345
1.2985 1.3400*
1.293 1.3518
GBPUSD
Comment: Too dreary for words. With a little luck a weekly close above 1.5000 will send many off to re-think UK plc, making for more interesting markets over the next month.Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4860; stop below 1.4550. Short term target 1.5050, then a lot more.
Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.4848 " 1.496
1.482 1.5069*
1.47 1.51
1.465 1.5155/1.5185
1.4580* 1.5375*
USDJPY
Comment: Another small 'hammer' yesterday against first retracement support yet the market has not really seen an increase in bullish momentum. Note also that the lagging Chikou Span currently has support from the candles between 99.00 and 98.00.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 99.40, adding to 98.55; stop below 97.50. First target 99.60, then 100.70.
Direction of Trade: →
Support Resistance
98.50 " 99.52
98.15 99.68/99.79
97.50* 100
97.1 100.75
96.5 101.45*

EUR/USD: Clarity Comes From Having Perspective

By Vadim Pokhlebkin (Elliot Wave international).
Even in tough markets, Elliott wave analysis offers you an edge.

This is a good week to talk about clarity of Elliott wave patterns in forex market charts. For example, take a look at the messy patterns in the euro-dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) since Monday, April 13 (circled in red):
This choppy, overlapping, uncommitted decline from Monday's peak has been very difficult to trade. Still, even at moments like this, Elliott wave analysis offers you an edge you won't get elsewhere. Here's what I mean. Yes, this week's action in the EUR/USD has been tough to read -- that's why you see a "?" in the chart above. But what if you "zoom out" and look at the larger picture? You can do that with wave analysis. Above, you see a 75-minute chart; let's now go to a daily one. (Both charts copied from EWI's intensive Currency Specialty Service.)

Suddenly, the picture is not so messy! It's clear that from the December 2008 top, the decline into the February bottom unfolded in five waves. If you know even the basics of Elliott wave analysis, you know that five-wave moves are called impulses, and they always point in the direction of the larger trend. You can also see that the action since the February low has unfolded as a three-wave move: those are always corrections that go against the larger trend.

Now it's getting clearer, isn't it? Don't worry that this week's action may be hard to read: Elliott wave patterns usually clear up sooner than later. And, from the larger picture it's already obvious what bias the EUR/USD currently has. In fact, if the EUR/USD continues along the path Elliott waves are painting, its next move will likely to be what Elliotticians refer to as "a wonder to behold." That's something no forex trader wants to miss. Get the latest details now in our intensive Currency Specialty Service.


http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif

What’s Next For The S&P 500?

By Chris Barton on April 16, 2009
I called for an end to the rally on April 1. I did so again on April 8. Now over a month into the rally, and two weeks longer than I expected, we are still in rally mode. I could dig in my heels and point out the bad signs in this market. I could continue to be the Technician’s Eddie Mush.

I will not do that. I mean I will tell you what I think, but I will not say that this rally is done.

Let’s go to the chart - and let’s get the negatives out of the way again:
* Prior resistance near 875 acted as the most recent high
* Volume is showing a down trend which means that traders could be tired and waiting for a pull back
* On Balance Volume has not made a new high
I thought I said I was not going to do that again. OK, small fib. What I will do, though it also point out some positives.
* While we have hit resistance, I also believe we might have an important support level based on the Volume by Price indicator. I would like to see the 815 level tested and hold.
* The 200 Day Moving Average is back on the screen. Psychologically this could be an important level to hit although we are still more than 10% below it.
* Volume, while fading, is more than the last rally at the end of last year. Buyers are returning slowly but surely.

My thesis on earnings being the reason that the sellers take over is not bearing fruit. Research In Motion (RIMM: 63.90 0.00 0.00%) was good. Bank of America (BAC: 10.44 0.00 0.00%) was good. Intel (INTC: 15.62 0.00 0.00%) wasn’t awful. Goldman (GS: 121.19 0.00 0.00%) was good. Let that be a lesson to you - don’t go to a technician for fundamental advice. I read too many CNBC.com articles about the sure-to-be disappointing earnings and thought I would work that into my analysis.

Another story line that I could have borrowed from the financial media was the fear of being left out of the rally. I think we’ve seen a bit of that. The On Balance Volume shows us that the up days are higher in volume than the down days. Traders are using the dips in this rally as buying opportunities. They are using it as a way to get in on the bullish action. Traders and funds are judged against each other as well as against the market as a whole. Those who were less on the sidelines on this rally are going to show a better performance than those who were more in cash. These funds thrive on attracting new money and those with the better performance will do a better job attracting new clients when those clients start looking for places to invest.

Fear can take many forms. It is not just the fear of losing money. It can be the fear of not making enough hay while the sun is shining.So what do I think is coming next? Clearly the selloff has to be right around the corner, right? Who knows? I think there might not be a selloff if that support around 815 holds up. There has been a lot of selling in the past 6 months. It is possible that the worst is behind us. I won’t predict one way or another - I’ll wait for the market to tell me.

IHSG:

Trend IHSG, DJIA, HSI & Nikkei masih menunjukkan uptrend ke target 200-day MA, terutama IHSG menjadi leading karena telah capai 1,638 (200-day MA) kemarin, dgn signal positif dari pola channel upper line di 1,660, continuation bullish candle, MACD, ADX, stochastic masih uptrend. Target berikutnya di 1,743 (38.2% fibo retracement). Lebih baiknya lapkeu HP, IPO Roseta, JP Morgan, Google dan lebih baikny jobless claims (-53k 610k total 6 jt), housing start -10.8%. Hari ini pasar akan mengamati lapkeu Citigroup, GE, restrukturisasi GM, data U Michigan sentiment. Analis menaikkan prediksi GDP Q2 China menjadi 7,5%, 2009 di 8%.
www.strategydesk.co.id.

Gold And Silver Up Marginally

By Gold Investments on April 16, 2009
Gold and silver rose marginally in US trading yesterday and have largely traded sideways in Asian and European trading. Gold appears to be consolidating in the $865/oz to $900/oz region and needs a higher weekly close (above $883/oz) and then a close above $900/oz to look good from a technical perspective. This looks quite possible but there are very determined sellers at the $900/oz level who have so far impeded gold’s advance.

Physical demand remains robust and data from India shows that the important Indian sub continent is again buying gold for the festival season after the recent hiatus.
The world is seeing government deficits and debt levels spiraling and this is a recipe for markedly higher inflation and higher gold prices in the medium term (maybe as soon as early 2010).

In 2005 and 2006, the smart money prepared itself for the property crash and asset deflation of recent months by diversifying out of equities, commodities and property and into bonds, cash and gold. Now the smart money is preparing for the medium term threat posed by the onslaught of inflation (as warned of by Buffet and Soros in recent days) and owning assets that will perform well in such circumstances - certain equities, some inflation linked bonds and gold and silver.

Gold outperforms most assets in periods of high inflation, stagflation and especially in the worst case scenario of hyperinflation when the value of paper currency becomes worthless vis-à-vis tangibles and particularly gold.

Is This The Beginning Of A Bull Market, Or Just A Breather For The Bear?

By Martin Hutchinson on April 16, 2009
Since sinking to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (^GSPC: 856.93 +4.87 +0.57%) had risen 24% - the best such short-term rally since 1933. But this isn’t 1933 and you shouldn’t trust the rally. Happy Days are NOT here again, at least not yet.The 1933 rally came after a record-breaking decline. Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 25% during the Great Depression and the Dow Jones Industrial Index (^DJI: 8061.47 +31.85 +0.40%) fell by almost 90%.

What is less well known, however, is that valuations remained depressed for well over a decade after 1933. In 1949, when the Dow was selling at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of just 7 times, it was cheaper in terms of earnings, net asset value, and GDP than it had been at its 1932 nadir.This time around, the S&P 500 index fell 58% from its 2007 peak to its March 9 bottom at the superstitiously significant 666. Of course, 58% is nowhere near as much as 90%. To recover from a 58% drop the stock market must rise by 138%, but it must rise by 1,000% to recover from a 90% drop.So it is not surprising that in spite of inflation and enormous economic growth, the Dow did not reach its 1929 level until 1954.The other difference between 2009 and 1933 is that the 2008 stock market peak was both higher and more prolonged than it was in 1929, which was a mere blip by comparison.

Radio Corporation of America - 1929’s equivalent of Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO: 17.56 0.00 0.00%) or Google Inc. (GOOG: 379.50 0.00 0.00%) - never got above 28 times earnings in that market, and the Dow spent less than three years within 50% of its peak value of 381.17, only passing 200 in December 1927, and finally falling below that level in August 1930.In this market, the Dow was above 7,000 - within 50% of its 14,164 peak - continually from May 1997 until February 2009. Because the 2000s market was more overvalued for longer for a longer period of time, it has further to fall, even without a “Great Depression” economically.

The current rally has been based on signs that the U.S. banking system is not about to expire - a development I wrote about in an article entitled “The Top 12 U.S. Banks: From Zombies to Hidden Gems” in late February.Apart from the very largest banks, which gorged themselves on the most foolish and ill-designed products of the derivatives business, the banking system is suffering from a normal real estate downturn and is coping well with the high levels of loss that downturn has brought. With short-term interest rates well below long-term rates, banks’ ongoing lending business is currently exceptionally profitable.The U.S. economy, as a whole, has stopped falling with ever-increasing velocity and may actually be beginning a lengthy “bottoming out” process. Had politicians avoided meddling with the monetary and fiscal systems of the globe, devoting trillions of dollars to bailouts and stimulus, the bottom we are approaching might well be somewhat deeper, but we could at least be sure that it was indeed the bottom, with recovery to follow.

In Asian countries such as Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, where stimulus has been modest, and in China where it has created only a modest budget deficit, the sharp recession caused by collapsing exports is already coming to an end. (China, however, has a major banking and real estate problem that could still cause trouble down the road.)But in the United States, we can have no such assurance. Monetary policy, which was far too expansive in 1995-2008, reached expansiveness of extraordinary dimensions after last September’s crisis, with the monetary base doubling and broad money expanding at a rate of more than 15%. Fiscal policy has produced record peacetime deficits - deficits that are more than double the previous peacetime record. The Federal budget deficit in 2009 will be double the 2007 balance of payments deficit, which had previously been thought of as a critical and dangerous imbalance.

With imbalances of this size, there can be no assurance that a recessionary bottom will be followed by recovery, quite the opposite. Japan has now suffered near-recessionary conditions for almost two decades with a weak recovery in 2003-07. And that modest recovery is now being followed by a new recession as the Japanese government foolishly resorted to more wasteful public spending and debt.Fiscal stimulus stimulates nothing in a country where public debt is already 160% of GDP; instead it increases uncertainty and crowds out risk-taking private capital.The most likely scenario for the United States is a recession, or near-recession, that lasts for a decade with the economy unsuccessfully struggling against the twin problems of surging inflation and a budget deficit that crowds out private capital investment. Either real interest rates will be high to combat inflation or inflation will rage out of control.

In such an environment, the outlook for stocks is bleak. The high stock prices of 1996-2008 have gone, and they will not return. When the excessive monetary expansion began in the spring of 1995, the Dow was at 4,000. That is equivalent to a level of 7,800 today when you inflate it by the increase in nominal GDP since 1995.However, 1995 was not a bear market low. It was far from it. The market had been rising for four years since its 1990 bottom and was almost 50% above its 1987 peak, just before the “Black Monday” crash.

Thus, even if the economy had the growth prospects of 1995, a level of 7,800 on the Dow would be a reasonable expectation, not for a bear market low but for an equilibrium value. If you then take into account the markedly worse expectations for the U.S. economy resulting from excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus, 7,800 is too high.Take the 1949 P/E multiple of 7, and apply it to a recovering earnings level of say $60 on the Standard and Poor’s 500, and you get an S&P of 420 - equivalent to a Dow of around 4,000.The market is no longer hugely overvalued with the Dow at 8,000, but any rally will be temporary, and we can expect an eventual low well below the 6,547 the Dow reached last month.

Euro Falls on Concern of ECB Split; Rupiah Strengthen

(Bloomberg) -- The euro weakened on concern a split among the region’s central bankers will hamper efforts to revive the economy. European and Asian stocks gained, while U.S. index futures declined.The 16-nation currency fell 1.2 percent against the yen and 0.4 percent versus the dollar. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index rose 0.6 percent, led by Barclays Plc, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.4 percent before earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Google Inc.

European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said yesterday the bank shouldn’t reduce its benchmark interest rate below 1 percent, from 1.25 percent now, putting him at odds with policy makers who say borrowing costs must fall to near zero. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast March 31 that Europe’s economy will shrink 4.1 percent this year, compared with 4 percent in the U.S.Barclays climbed for a fifth day, adding 4.8 percent to 206.25 pence. The London-based bank’s President Robert Diamond said better-than-estimated earnings this month from New York- based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. in San Francisco aren’t a “one-off” phenomenon.

Dassault Declines
Stocks pared their gains in Europe after Dassault Systemes SA, whose design software is used by Toyota Motor Corp., declined 5 percent to 28.40 euros. Dassault plans to cut its full-year revenue forecast after first-quarter sales fell short of its targets, Chief Financial Officer Thibault de Tersant said on a conference call.Geneva-based STMicroelectronics NV retreated 2.5 percent to 4.50 euros. Europe’s largest chipmaker said it plans to cut quarterly dividends 67 percent to 3 cents a share, citing the need to “maintain a solid financial foundation.”Espoo, Finland-based Nokia Oyj, the world’s largest maker of mobile phones, will also post results today. New York-based JPMorgan will report earnings before the open of regular U.S. trading. Mountain View, California-based Google will announce results after the close.

China Growth
Analysts estimate that profits at S&P 500 companies decreased for the seventh straight quarter in the January to March period, the longest stretch of declines since at least the Great Depression. China’s economy grew 6.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace in almost 10 years, a government report showed today. Separate reports showed that growth in industrial production and investment accelerated, adding to evidence that Premier Wen Jiabao’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan is working.Crude oil for May delivery rose 77 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $50.02 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Soybeans climbed to a three-month high on the Chicago Board of Trade on speculation for a smaller harvest in Argentina.

Emerging-Market Stocks
The MSCI index of 23 developing economies’ stocks rose 0.3 percent to 645.58, extending this year’s rally to 14 percent. JPMorgan strategist Adrian Mowat forecast the gauge will jump to 900 this year. That would be the highest closing level since Sept. 8, a week before New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy froze global credit markets and sparked an exodus from emerging markets.The cost of protecting corporate bonds sold by European companies from default fell in the credit-default swaps market, reflecting an improvement in perceptions of credit quality.

Asian currencies rose, led by the Indonesian rupiah and South Korea’s won, as optimism a global recession is easing bolstered demand for emerging-market assets.
The rupiah strengthened 1.3 percent to 10,750 per dollar as of 3:52 p.m. in Jakarta and the won rose 0.5 percent to 1,332.10, nearing a three-month high, ,according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The MSCI Asia Pacific index of regional shares climbed 0.3 percent, after rising as much as 2.2 percent. Indonesia’s currency extended a week-long rally on speculation the nation’s commodity exports and the prospect of the government being re-elected will help the economy recover from a global slump.

Indonesia Bond Sale
The currency was also buoyed as Indonesia’s offering of $650 million in Islamic bonds attracted orders for more than six times the amount planned. The rupiah is leading gains this month among Asia’s 10 most-active currencies, the Jakarta Composite Index of stocks has rallied over 13 percent so far in April, already beating the rise in March, and the country’s local-currency bonds are outperforming the rest of the region. The Jakarta Composite Index rose 1.4 percent, a fourth day of gains, while foreign investors bought $138 million more Indonesian equities than they sold this month.

The baht traded at 35.38 per dollar versus 35.40 on April 10, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It earlier reached 35.33, the highest level since April 7. Elsewhere, the Singapore dollar rose 0.2 percent to S$1.4989 against the U.S. currency and the Philippine peso climbed 0.2 percent to 47.72. Taiwan’s dollar was little changed at NT$33.80 and the yuan traded at 6.8324 from 6.8322 yesterday.

Thursday’s Futures Outlook: FTSE, DAX, Eurostoxx

By Carol Harmer on April 16, 2009
FTSE June Contract
Ftse traded higher yesterday and had a last gasp and closed higher. Today 3977 is the obstacle that needs to be overcome. If buyers take the market above this resistance look for further strength leading to 3996.5.
Here buyers will be taking profits. Sellers will be out for blood looking to push this lower. However if the buyers decide to take them on 4012./16 will be the next stop. Buyers will profit take and sellers will be sidelined. Buyers will reemerge above 4021 for 4046/54. 3975/77 holding gives sellers a taste of success and sees them try for the bottom of the recent trading range at 3890/83. Profit taking and fresh buying will be the order of the day here, unless 3880 breaks.
Dax June Contract
Dax lunged higher on the close to 4609. However this is looking toppy again and this morning would expect this to come lower to 4516 which is the first fib retrace level. Here sellers would be looking to cover and buyers would be out defending.
Only below 4516 would buyers wobble and be looking to reverse positions and join sellers for a move lower to 4471/72. Now the other side of the coin is that Dax will hold up above 4546 and then the buyers will once more try for 4609. Sellers again will be defending this resistance. If the buyers manage to push it through here sellers will be in trouble and buyers will ramp this higher with 4640 then the targeted area. Buyers are profit taking at these higher levels and only re-instating longs above 4643 for 4695
Eurostoxx June Contract
This had a good close but has fallen shy of the 2228 previous days high. However unless this can quickly break above 2230 the charts will have a double top in place and will come lower. First retracement target for this is 2157. Buyers will be defending this level and sellers would be taking profits. If this support breaks, look for the market to come lower with 2132/31 then targeted. Once again short covering will follow and fresh buyers are in at these lows.

Now if the market makes a break above 2230 buyers will brush aside any selling pressure and trade higher for 2250 initially. Profit taking will be evident. Above 2250 sees buyers once more of the attack, leaving 2263/70 as your targeted area.

Stock Trade Ideas For Thursday: Oracle, Exxon Mobil, Google, JP Morgan

By Antonio Costa on April 15, 2009
Exxon Mobil (XOM: 68.14 0.00 0.00%) - Unfortunately the stock is still looking for a bottom. It has recently broken support at 68. Looking closely at the chart, it has not only broken an important support, but it has also broken a large symmetrical triangle that has been formed since the start of the stock’s decline February 2009. Currently 20 day MA is acting as a resistance. I expect price to move downwards to 64 and there is still a possibility of reaching 63-62 price level. The technical daily chart shows the stock is on still weak as it is still trading below 50 day and 200 day moving average while K line is falling below D line.
Oracle (ORCL: 18.59 0.00 0.00%) - The technical daily chart above is showing mixed signal as MACD indicate bull market as MACD is on top of signal line while KD and ROC still shows weak signal as K line is below D line and ROC is back at overbought level. The short term trend still looks bullish as the stock is still above 50 day and 200 day moving average, however fresh exposures may be avoided for the moment. A close below 18.36 would be an early sign of weakness and a drop below 18.25 would impart weakness.

By Zachary Musso on April 16, 2009
Let’s first begin by announcing that JP Morgan (JPM: 32.56 0.00 0.00%) posts earnings in the AM Thursday, dictating how the market will do for the rest of the day. It’s a shame that the entire market will trade off of this slug of news, but that’s just the way this market is. JPM’s EPS is supposed to come in at +0.32 per share, a little under half of what it was at this time last year (+0.68 per share). The scenarios fill themselves in:
1. If JPM posts a better than expected earnings and shows a smaller amount of write downs expected from Q4 to Q1, the market will fly high.
2. If JPM posts at or below the expected earnings and shows an equal or greater amount of write downs from Q4 to Q1, this market will be six feet under.
With that said, Google (GOOG: 379.50 0.00 0.00%) earnings come out after hours Thursday, and in my opinion, they’re going to blow away the opposition. Not many have talked about a better-than-expected scenario for GOOG yet, but I think GOOG is the only salvation included in the earnings reports if the market (and JPM) gets ugly Thursday.

Disclaimer : Trading stocks involves risk, this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations. The charts provided here are not meant for investment purposes and only serve as technical examples.

Daily Technical Analysis Forex/Gold/DJIA

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Stuck below the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud' and note that it gets very thin next week. A sustained break above 1.3400 might turn momentum bullish.
Strategy: Buy at 1.3185; stop well below 1.3100. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3400 for 1.3600 and then more.Direction of Trade: ↗
Support Resistance
1.3171 " 1.327
1.3125 1.331
1.3100* 1.34
1.3 1.3518
1.2985 1.3582/1.3600*
GBPUSD
Comment: A pity Cable did not manage a daily close above the psychological level at 1.5000, but maybe not that surprising considering it's had no help from other major currencies. With a little luck a weekly close above here will send many off to re-think UK plc.Strategy: Buy at 1.4995, adding to 1.4825; stop below 1.4550. Short term target 1.5050, then a lot more.Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.4964 " 1.504
1.49 1.5069*
1.482 1.51
1.47 1.5155/1.5185
1.4580* 1.5375*
USDJPY
Comment: Yesterday's small 'hammer' against first retracement support hints that we may have formed an interim high. If not today then hopefully by Friday a close above the 9-day moving average at 99.79 might add to bullish momentum. Note also that the lagging Chikou Span currently has support from the candles between 99.00 and 98.00.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 98.85; stop below 98.00. First target 99.70, then 100.70.
Direction of Trade: →
Support Resistance
98.83/98.74 " 99.52
98.15 99.68/99.79
97.50* 100
97.1 100.75
96.5 101.45*
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee: Rupee is moving as per our expectation. It strengthened to 49.63 against the greenback taking the trendline and 14 DMA resistance around 50.05 in the early trade yesterday. The bias for the local currency remains strong with immediate target of 48.90 and then to our target of 47.80. On the upside 50.20 has now become a crucial resistance above which the bias would turn neutral. Please refer to the USD INR Chart in our homepage for a clearer technical view. Bullish as long as it holds below 50.
Euro: Euro broke the rising trendline yesterday and plunged to 1.3146 (55 Daily EMA) despite the other currencies remaining strong against the buck. This suggests further downside pressure on Euro is still prevailing due to quantitative easing policy expectation from Eurozone. Sustaining below 1.3250 (21 & 100 Daily EMA) would bring a test of 1.3075. Look for short opportunities at every rise. (Eur/Usd:1.3200). Bearish.
Pound: Cable broke past the key resistance of 1.4930 (21 Weekly EMA) yesterday and surged to 1.5068 high. The charts are getting overbought, yet no clear sell signal is emerging at this point. Resistance comes around 1.5435 (38.2% of the fall) where shorts could be considered for 100-130 pips. The intraday view remains slightly bullish only a strong break below 1.4550 (55 Daily EMA) would change the view of pound to bearish again. Initiate longs around the 21 Hourly EMA at 1.4985 for intraday gain of 70 pips. (Gbp/Usd: 1.4990). Slightly bullish.
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair retraced to 98.20 levels (as expected) where it gained support from the daily trendline and is again aiming to touch the 61.8% Retracement at 101.50. The weekly and 4-hourly stochastic is overbought and flat. Only IF Yen breaks 98.00 and holds then downside upto 96.01 (38.2%) could be observed. (Usd/Jpy: 98.25).
Australian Dollar: Aussie recovered from 0.7147 and moved higher to 0.7314 levels maintaining well above the trendline support. The daily and 4-hourly charts are getting overbought and a correction upto 0.7050-0.7120 could be seen. Initiate shorts around 0.73 levels for 70-80 pips. Alternatively, look for entering long at dips around 0.7090- 0.7120 levels for 100 pips. (Aud/Usd: 0.7158).
Gold: Gold is holding steadily below the daily and weekly trend lines and crucial moving averages. It is likely to be bearish in short term. Sell at retracements around 900 to 910 levels and book profits around $875 -$880 levels Bearish (Gold: $890.10)
Dollar index :The dollar index strengthened last week and closed above 55 days EMA, due to weakness in Euro. While it's still limited below near term resistance of 86.13, the case for resuming rally from 82.63 has been building up. We're still maintaining the view that key support of 82 level (cluster support of 61.8% retracement of 77.69 to 89.62 at 82.24 and 38.2% retracement of 70.70 to 89.62 at 82.39, as well as long term rising trend line at 82.03) intact. Break above 86.13 will set the stage for retesting 89.62 high. Though a break below 84.93 will dampen the bullish case and bring more sideway trading before an upside break out. Bullish.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com |
EURO
The Euro versus the dollar continued yesterday's fluctuations in an attempt to decline to reach the key support at 1.3110. The resistance levels continue to reverse movements to the downside which makes us believe to witness a breakout to the downside to target levels near 1.2500. The short term decline remains valid as far as 1.3460 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2980 and the key resistance at 1.3740.The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.
Support 1.3160 1.3110 1.3065 1.3035 1.2990
Resistance 1.3295 1.3330 1.3375 1.3405 1.3475
Recommendation According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.3295 with targets at 1.3160 and stop loss with four-hour closing above 1.3375
GBP
The GBP/USD pair attempted once again to breach the minor resistance to reach the 1.5100 level yet was limited near 1.5070 before reversing to the downside in correctional movements. We expect this correction to take the pair towards 1.4970 – 1.4945 near the 1.4960 pivotal resistance in an attempt to gather bullish momentum on the four hour charts before rebounding back to the upside targeting 1.5130 where a successful breach of this level will open the way towards the key resistance for the channel at 1.5400. It is important to note that this incline remains as far as 1.4690 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4345 and the key resistance at 1.5460. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440
Support: 1.4960, 1.4880, 1.4815, 1.4765, 1.4735
Resistance: 1.5070, 1.5130, 1.5235, 1.5300, 1.5350
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.4960 with targets at 1.5130 and stop loss with four-hour closing below 1.4880
JPY
The Dollar versus the Japanese yen inclined as expected to reach the previously broken support line turned into resistance at 99.40 (neckline) before reversing to the downside once again. Our outlook for today remains to the downside targeting 97.40 before reaching levels below 96.00. This short term trend remains as far as 100.35 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 9+6.10 and the key resistance at 101.45.The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60.
Support: 98.80, 98.15, 97.40, 96.50, 96.00
Resistance: 99.40, 99.95, 100.35, 101.00, 101.45
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 99.40 with targets at 97.40 and stop loss with four-hour closing above 100.35
CHF
The Dollar versus the Swissy continued to incline gradually in an attempt to breach the key resistance at 1.1630. Trading remains within a minor ascending channel with key support at 1.1395 and key resistance at 1.1515, keeping our intraday trend to the upside as it supports the short term trend as well as far as 1.1290 remains intact. A breach of this level, will take the pair towards the pivotal support at 1.1165.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0975 and the key resistance at 1.1900.The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.1395, 1.1350, 1.1290, 1.1240, 1.1205
Resistance: 1.1515, 1.1630, 1.1725, 1.1810, 1.1900
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.1395 with targets at 1.1515 and stop loss with four-hour closing below 1.1290

Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade |
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3230, 1.3213 and 1.3186(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3158, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3140. Break of the latter would result in 1.3114. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3081. Continuation will give 1.3057 and 1.3033.
Today's resistance: - 1.3278 and 1.3323(main). Break would give 1.3366, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3380. Break of the latter would result in 1.3412. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3432. Continuation will give 1.3465 and 1.3494.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 98.10(main). Break would bring 97.90, where correction is possible. Then 97.62, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 97.44. If a strong impulse, we would see 97.20. Continuation would give 96.86 and 96.65.
Today's resistance: - 99.00 and 99.23(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 99.46, where also a correction may be. Then 99.67. If a strong impulse, we would see 99.94. Continuation will give 100.24.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 7897.44(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7849.64, where correction also can be. Then follows 7818.40. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7796.22. Continuation will bring 7785.00.
Today's resistance: - 7976.24 and 7998.75(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8021.28, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8049.37, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8077.46. Continuation would bring 8100.00.
by Hans Nilsson/CMS Forex
FX Strategy Update

Merrill’s Bartels Says Oil Will Rise to $70: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will rise above $70 a barrel this year, said Mary Ann Bartels, chief U.S. market analyst at Bank of America Inc.’s Merrill Lynch unit.

“Crude has been building a wide, positive base over the past couple of months,” said Bartels, ranked second in a rating of technical analysts by Institutional Investor magazine last year. “Our target is between $70 and $80. Looking at the whole move, that’s a pretty aggressive retracement.”

A rise to $76.28 a barrel in New York would be a 38.2 percent recovery of the slump from July’s record of $147.27. The 38.2 percent threshold comes from the ratio between numbers in the Fibonacci sequence. The ratio, sometimes known as the golden mean, is used to find points of support or resistance as prices retrace rallies or declines between previous high and lows.Oil’s average price over 50 days remained above its 100-day mean for a fourth day today, having broken through on April 8 for the first time since September.

“Things like the 50-day moving average crossing the 100 show the market’s ability to rise from this base, to around $60 to $65 in coming months,” Bartels, said in a phone interview from New York, declining to give a more specific time frame. “We expect after a move to $70 to $80, then crude could come back and test the $35 level.”Oil for May delivery traded at $49.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange today. Crude crashed 78 percent from $147.27 on July 11 to $32.40 on Dec. 19.

Technical analysts at BNP Paribas SA and Credit Suisse Group AG have forecast a rally above $68 a barrel as prices repeat an $18 gain made between December and January. In contrast, Societe Generale SA said on March 31 that charts suggest a crash to $28 a barrel in the second quarter.Bartels predicted on March 23 that the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock market index may rise to 1,055. Since then, the U.S. equity benchmark has gained 12 percent to 858.73.

Dollar May Drop to Post-War Low Versus Yen: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may weaken toward the post-World War II low of 79.75 yen after climbing to about 103 yen in the coming weeks, according to Mizuho Financial Group Inc.The level of 103 yen is the top of a so-called ichimoku cloud where sell orders may be triggered, causing the dollar to approach 79.75 yen, the post-war low set in April 1995, said Hiroyuki Tanaka at Mizuho Corporate Bank in Tokyo, a unit of Japan’s third-largest lender.

“The real game starts when dollar-yen hits the cloud,” said Tanaka, the bank’s chief technical analyst. The dollar’s path resembles the currency’s movements from March to August 2008 after the near-collapse of Bear Stearns Cos., he said.The dollar tumbled to a 13-year low of 87.13 yen on Jan. 21 after the previous occasion the greenback failed to break through a cloud pattern. The dollar is entering the cloud for a second time after reaching a “double-bottom” of about 87.10 in December and January, according to Tanaka.

The dollar may rally to 117 yen next year should it break through the resistance level of 103 yen, Tanaka said. The yen traded at 99.07 against the dollar as of 9:12 a.m. in Tokyo from 98.98 late in New York yesterday.An ichimoku chart analyzes the midpoints of historic highs and lows. A cloud is the area between the first and second leading span lines on the chart and is used to show levels where buy and sell orders may be clustered.

Sluggish oil pricing breaks pattern

Crude has not done particularly well in recent sessions. It hasn't collapsed, but it has not been able to advance either.

As a result, a pattern I noted earlier, a "rounding bottom," has been broken through time and price. In other words.....

Will This Classic Bear Market Ever Run Out Of Gas?

By OptionsXpress on April 14, 2009
One of the most relentless bear markets of the past several months has been the Natural Gas futures market, with nearby futures prices falling to lows yesterday not seen in over six years. A relatively tame winter combined with a sharp drop in industrial demand has caused Natural Gas storage volume to soar, with supplies currently 22.7% above the 5-year average.

The beginning of April is usually considered beginning of the storage injection period, and last week’s EIA storage report confirmed this with a stocks build of 20 billion cubic feet (bcf), which was 7 bcf above pre-report estimates. Commercial users (such as factories and power plants) account for an estimated 30 percent of Natural Gas usage, and the weak economic climate has definitely taken its toll on commercial usage, with the Energy Department estimating that commercial demand would fall by 6% in 2009 - which if true, would not help to alleviate the current burdensome supplies in the U.S. Low gas prices have affected gas producers as well, with the number of gas rigs drilling for Natural Gas dropping below 800, or less than ½ the number in production at its peak last fall. Though the current fundamentals look to favor the bear camp, any signs of renewed industrial demand could catch the market by surprise and eat into the current surplus.Weather conditions could also change the supply/demand balance, especially if warmer than normal temperatures arrive this summer, which would increase the cooling demand as power plants use more Natural Gas to supply electricity for air conditioning needs. Later, as summer approaches, traders will turn their focus to the weather radars, as the start of Atlantic Hurricane season begins on June 1st and runs through November 30th . It is not uncommon for market participants to begin pricing a “weather premium” into Natural Gas prices to compensate for a disruption in the Gulf of Mexico should a storm system interrupt production.

Natural Gas futures are notorious for sharp or even violent price moves, especially if production is taken offline due to a severe storm. Given the high historic volatility in Natural Gas futures, it should come as no surprise to experienced futures options traders that options on Natural Gas futures are usually very expensive, especially going out into the fall and winter months. Traders expecting a potential recovery in Natural Gas prices later this year may wish to investigate bull call spreads in Natural Gas options. The advantages of a bull call spread are the lower costs over an outright long option position, with the short leg of this spread offsetting some of the cost of the long leg. The down side to this spread is capping of potential gains to the short strike price of the spread. An example of a bull call spread would be buying the November Natural Gas 6 calls and selling the November Natural Gas 9 calls.As of this writing, with the NGX9 futures trading at 4.820, the spread could be bought for approximately $3,200, which would also be the maximum loss on the trade should November Natural Gas prices remain below 6.000 at the option expiration in late October. The maximum potential gain is $30,000 minus the premium paid for the spread, which could possibly be realized if November Natural Gas is trading above $9.000 at option expiration.

Technicals
Looking at the daily chart for November Natural Gas, we notice the extent that this bear market has run since the highs were made last July. Prices remain well below the 100-day moving average but are holding just below the 20-day moving average, which is popular with many short-term momentum traders. The 14-day is well off its low readings, setting up a potential bullish divergence, as this momentum indicator has failed to make a new low reading as prices fell to contract lows. Support is seen at 4.500, with resistance found at the recent highs of 5.485.

Bearish Rising Wedge In The S&P 500?

By Corey Rosenbloom on April 15, 2009
Is a Bearish Rising Wedge forming in the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 841.50 -17.23 -2.01%)? Let’s turn to a pure price look at the S&P 500 index to see this structure potentially developing.When trying to be bearish in any degree off the March 6th lows, it’s as if the bulls are saying “Rumors of my death have been completely exaggerated,” as any attempt to call a top has been hideously thwarted, so that’s a caveat when reading a bearish rising wedge into the patterns. However, taking a technical purist approach, we do see the clear formation of a rising wedge potential reversal pattern.Also, in Elliott Wave terminology, one could refer to this as an “Ending Diagonal” of sorts (which has the same implications as a bearish rising wedge).

The expectation is that price and momentum is winding down and bulls are giving it ‘one last go’ within narrowing trend channels. We should expect a down-move breakout impulse should sellers/bears push price underneath the lower trendline around 830.Furthermore, unless we have ‘pattern failure,’ then bulls should not be expected to push price outside the upper trend channel at 870 or so.Even stepping aside the larger pattern, just using converging trendline analysis, it seems logical to expect the next ‘play’ to be down to test the lower rising trend line for a test of support (or type of “magnet trade”.Keep watching the simple price structure to see what develops and whether or not bruised bears can wrest control away from drunken bulls.

Daily Technical Analysis & Elliot Wave Forex/Cross/Gold/Oil/CFD

By Ahmad Mudjo (My strategist partner)

Download article

Daily Technical Analysis Forex/Crosses

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Varengold Bank
Good morning from Hamburg and welcome to our daily FX Report. Unfortunately we have to report again about record economic slowdowns in some countries. But the best news comes from Germany, even the very nice spring weather. Anyway, we wish you a successful trading week.
Markets review
The JPY and the USD gained against higher-yielding currencies on expectations the global recession will deepen, which spurred investors to seek both currencies as a safe haven. The Japanese currency increased for the fifth time in six days versus the EUR after a report this week may show China' economy slowed down to the lowest level in almost a decade. In addition Singapore said its economy may shrink the most in its 44-year history. The EUR/JPY fell to 133.11 after it reached a low at 132.65. The NZD/JPY dipped to 58.97 after it touched a day-low at 58.69 while the CHF/JPY declined to 88.00. The strong USD performed gains against the AUD and reached a high of 0.7271 before it pulled back to 0.7288.Yesterday the EUR/USD rose for the second day on concerns a German report will show that wholesale prices fell for a series of eight months, tomorrow. The weak EUR performed losses against a few other currencies after investors still looking forward for signals from the ECB. Council member Axel Weber will speak here in Hamburg tomorrow and Erkki Liikanen will deliver a speech in Helsinki the following day. However the EUR/USD rose 1.37% to 1.3368 before it pulled back to 1.3330.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: In holiday-thin markets yesterday the Euro managed to squeeze up to the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud'. A sustained break above 1.3400 might turn momentum bullish, keeping in mind that the Euro is not at all overbought.Strategy: Buy at 1.3325; stop below 1.3100. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3400 for 1.3600 and then more.Direction of Trade: ↗
Support Resistance
1.3307 " 1.3381
1.3275 1.34
1.32 1.345
1.3125 1.3518
1.3100* 1.3582/1.3600
GBPUSD
Comment: Consolidating neatly under last Monday's high at 101.45. We continue to favour another brief squeeze higher still, to 102.00 and possibly even as high as 106.50 some time later this month.Strategy: Buy at 99.80; stop below 98.70. Cover ahead of 102.20Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.4828 " 1.492
1.4725 1.496
1.465 1.5000**
1.4583* 1.5155/1.5185
1.446 1.5375*
USDJPY
Comment: Consolidating neatly under last Monday's high at 101.45. We continue to favour another brief squeeze higher still, to 102.00 and possibly even as high as 106.50 some time later this month.Strategy: Buy at 99.80; stop below 98.70. Cover ahead of 102.20.Direction of Trade: ↗
Support Resistance
99.61 " 100.43
99.31 100.89
99 101.11
98.70* 101.45/101.65*
98.5 102.20*
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus the dollar inclined sharply yesterday after the US session opening and after a quiet trading day during the morning session opposing expectations of breaching the 1.3110 resistance to the downside. The 61.8% correction was able to halt further gains for the pair which kept the short term trend to the downside as we see trading still within a triangle with a support at 1.3110 and a resistance at 1.3490. On the intraday basis we expect to witness a decline to reach the key support once again as far as 1.3405 – 1.3490 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2980 and the key resistance at 1.3740.The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
Support: 1.3310, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3110, 1.3065
Resistance: 1.3405, 1.3490, 1.3525, 1.3580, 1.3625
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.3405 with targets at 1.3310 and stop loss with a four-hour closing above 1.3490
GBP
The GBP/USD pair continued to incline to gradually breach the resistance levels and head towards the key resistance at 1.4960 which is the pivot point for the pair on the short term. The continuous pressure of the pair towards the upside may result in a successful breakout of the 1.4960 level indicating that this level must be monitored carefully. A daily close above this level will open the way for the pair to target 1.5350 only if the 1.5050 was breached as well. This incline remains as far as 1.4740 remains intact and the breach of the 1.4960 level is witnessed.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4345 and the key resistance at 1.5350. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440
Support 1.4825 1.4765 1.4740 1.4645 1.4600
Resistance 1.4960 1.5050 1.5105 1.5145 1.5235
Recommendation According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.4960 with targets at 1.4875 and stop loss with a four-hour closing above 1.5050
JPY
The Dollar versus Japanese yen declined towards the 99.55 support level and the key support for the ascending channel as trading remains within these two levels. Several patterns are being formed which may limit intraday movements as trading currently is within a symmetric triangle within the 99.55 level and the 100.55. This pattern is targeting the resistance level where a breach of this level will confirm the short term trend to the upside to reach the suggested targets at 101.45 and levels above 103.00. It is important to monitor the 99.55 support level where the continuous pressure on the level may result in the formation of a bearish technical pattern with a neckline at the same level where a breach of this pattern will take the pair to 98.40 – 98.00 as an initial target and extend losses towards the key support at 96.35. The trading range for today is among the key support at 96.35 and the key resistance at 103.00. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 99.55, 98.85, 98.40, 98.00, 97.55
Resistance: 100.55, 101.20, 101.45, 101.95, 102.25
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 99.55 with targets at 100.55 and stop loss with a four-hour closing below 98.85
CHF
The USD/CHF pair declined sharply yesterday after failing to breach the key resistance for the ascending channel since it meets with the 61.8% correction as seen on the four hour charts. The pair is currently nearing the key support at 1.1275 where we may witness a rebound to target the resistance level for the channel yet a breach of the support level to the downside will change the intraday and short term trends to target the pivot support at 1.1165. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0975 and the key resistance at 1.1900. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.1275, 1.1230, 1.1205, 1.1165, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1440, 1.1525, 1.1615, 1.1725
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.1275 with targets at 1.1440 and stop loss with a four-hour closing 1.1165
GBP/JPY
At 149.20 - twenty pips below our target (check it here) - sterling versus Japanese yen has placed a temporary high. Now the reaction is under preparation on the intraday basis depending on the obvious reversal candle stick formation while (Stochastic, William%R and CCI-RVI combination) supports this anticipated bearishness showing clear overbought signals. Carefully note that a break of 147.75 (23.6%) Fibonacci of the entire rally started at 135.70 and topped out at 151.50 will accelerate this bearishness.Trading range for today is among key support at 143.60 and key resistance at 155.00.The general trend is to the downside as far as 156.20.remains intact with target at 116.00.
Support: 147.80, 146.85, 145.90, 145.25, 144.60
Resistance: 149.20, 150.00, 150.50, 151.50, 152.25
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 148.50 with targets at 145.90 and stop loss at 150.50.
EUR/JPY
After reaching it's projected target by testing 38.2% Fibonacci level of the entire decline started 170.00 areas and bottomed out at 111.96 as we predicated yesterday, the pair is moving downward forming a clear reversal candlestick as shown on the secondary image. William%R, CCI and stochastic support this bearishness on the intraday basis . A breakout below EMA55-currently located at 132.50- will bring further decline towards the lower line of the channel but a break of 134.50 will damage this scenario.Trading range for today is among key support at 129.25 and key resistance now at 135.50.The general trend is to the downside as far as 141.44 remains intact with targets at 100.00 followed by 88.97 levels.
Support: 132.25, 131.50, 130.65, 130.05, 129.25
Resistance: 133.10, 133.80, 134.50, 135.45, 136.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 132.75 with targets at 130.60 and stop loss at 134.60

6 Bear Market Traps And How To Avoid Them

By Tom Lydon on April 14, 2009
Emotions can be our own worst enemy when it comes to exchange traded fund (ETF) investing, and bear markets can heighten them. But there are ways to avoid the traps that have sunk many a portfolio.Suzanne McGee for The Wall Street Journal says that falling into traps in bear markets is easy. Our fears and emotions are heightened. Big losses tend to be seen, especially in the current bear market, leading to “desperation” moves. Some investors get so scared, they don’t do anything.

How can you avoid these pitfalls?

1. The Value Trap. Investors convince themselves that a stock or ETF makes sense because it’s cheap, making it a great value. But sometimes “cheap” can mean “trouble.” Examine the fundamentals of a sector instead before deciding that something is a bargain.
2. The Risk Trap. The urge to recoup losses can lead some investors to make outsize bets on narrow ETFs or within volatile sectors. Instead of taking big risks, experts suggest sticking to the basics: staying diversified and building returns steadily through compound interest and dividends.
3. The Scapegoat Trap. Everyone’s looking for someone to blame for the losses, but don’t forget that nearly everyone is in the same boat no matter who is managing their money.
4. The Paralysis Trap. Many investors are now too scared to move at all. They either are scared to sell off holdings to limit losses, or they’re too scared to get back in when there are signals that suggest it could be an opportunity. If you’ve hit a buy signal, you may find it helpful to research the fundamentals of your position. This may make it more comfortable for you to take a position and help you overcome your paralysis.
5. The Comfort Trap. Wall Street likes to promise safety with certain products when investors get especially fearful, but there can be a downside. Sometimes these products come in the form of big fees or they can limit your upside potential. Bear in mind that to get some return, there has to be some risk.
6. The Chasing-the-News Trap. It’s tempting to react to each and every little turn the market takes, especially if you’ve got the television tuned to a financial news network all day long. How can you avoid these reactions? By having a strategy and sticking to it. We use the 200-day moving average to decide when we’re in and out. While the day-to-day news can be interesting and helpful, the 200-day is the signal we rely on.

Roach Has Abandoned ‘Economic Armageddon’ Scenario

By Oxbury Research on April 14, 2009
Is what we are experiencing with the economy these days the beginning of the ‘Economic Armageddon’ that Stephen Roach forecast for the U.S. in November 2004 when he said: “America’s record trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling, interest rates will rise further and U.S. consumers, in debt up to their eyeballs, will get pounded with no better than a 10% chance of avoiding economic Armageddon.”
A lot has happened since then. The U.S. Dollar index did keep falling but then rose considerably in 2008 with the financial crisis; interest rates did rise further before dropping precipitously in 2008; but, thankfully, we appear to have avoided economic Armageddon thanks to aggressive moves by the Fed back in September/October 2008. That was 2004 and this is 2009. Back then Mr. Roach was Managing Director, Chief Economist, and Director of Global Economic Analysis of Morgan Stanley; today he is Chairman of Hong Kong-based Morgan Stanley Asia.So what is Roach saying these days? In an early February ‘09 article for the New York Times he forecast that: “Unemployment will rise to near 10% over the next year and a half and this recession won’t end until late 2010 or early 2011.”These comments were hardly earth-shattering as negative as they may have been. There was not even a hint of major economic distress. Roach warmed up, however, in an article he wrote in late February, 2009 entitled “After the Era of Excess” in which he said (and I paraphrase on occasion):

Humpty Dumpty has had a Great Fall
“The world stopped in 2008 - and it was a full stop for the era of excess. Belatedly, the authorities have been extraordinarily aggressive in coming to the rescue of a system in crisis. But as in the case of Humpty Dumpty, they will not be able to put all the pieces back together again. The next era will be very different from the one we have just left behind.

The Game is Over
Up until recently there had been a symbiotic relationship between China (the saver and producer) and America (the borrower and consumer) with a belief that these disparities could be finessed indefinitely, as could record debt burdens and currency misalignments. Some day, went the argument, the world would have to face up to its imbalances, but the day of reckoning was always assumed to be some far-off, distant future. That was the fatal mistake made by the world in denial. But that game is now over. Our unbalanced world is now in the midst of a painful but necessary rebalancing what with the U.S. consumer most likely in the early stages of a multi-year contraction and the fact that there is no other consumer group to fill the void. As such, a post crisis global economy is likely to struggle for years to come.

The Quick Fix
Unfortunately, however, the policy response to the crisis has been disturbing in that the near-term tactics have been all about containing the crisis, with little appreciation of the strategic implications of these actions. In the U.S., for example, there is growing support for mortgage foreclosure relief - in effect perpetuating uneconomic levels of home “ownership” by many people who simply can not afford their still overvalued dwellings. In China, on the other hand, policy priorities remained focused on providing support for investment through a massive $585 billion infrastructure program, and on exports, rather than on doing anything to stimulate the Chinese economy. Such actions suggest that the world has learned little from its recent experience. Sadly, such reactive approach reflects a global politic that always seems to be focused on the quick fix.

We Need a Strategy
Tactics of crisis containment cannot be the sole focus of the policy response to this wrenching global economic recession. The world needs a strategy. What we need is leadership that has the courage to look beyond the valley.”In early March, 2009, in an article entitled “Grow Now, Ask Questions Later Formula will End in Tears,” Roach carried on the above theme stating in much more foreboding words that (and I paraphrase on occasion):

A Recipe for Disaster
“A crisis-torn world is in no mood for the heavy lifting of global rebalancing. Policies are being framed with an aim towards re-creating the boom. Washington wants to get credit flowing again to indebted US consumers and exporters - especially in Asia - would like nothing better than a renewal of demand led by the world’s biggest consumer. Unbalanced Asian economies are desperate for unbalanced US consumers to start spending again and spark another post-crisis recovery. Grow now, ask questions later. That has again become the mantra for an unbalanced world in crisis and, regretfully, it is a recipe for disaster. What a reckless way to run the world!If the policies currently being put into place end up perpetuating the imbalances that got the global economy into this mess - and that appears to be the case - the next crisis will be worse than this one. Indeed, until an unbalanced world faces up to its chronic imbalances, successive crises are likely to be increasingly destabilizing. While it is hard to believe that anything could be worse that what is happening today, I can assure you that it could get worse - much worse.”


In a mid-March ‘09 interview with the Xinhau News Agency Roach continued by saying that (and I paraphrase):
Deflation - Inflation
“The major risks challenging the world economy are that all the aggressive stimulus measures that have been put in place by central banks and fiscal authorities around the world are not enough or sufficient to stop the downturn of the global economy and, therefore, we need to continue to be cautious on the economic climate for some time to come. While one of the consequences of lowering interest rates is high inflation my utmost concern is what the exit strategy will be for this aggressive easing and how you wind down without tipping into deflation.”

Gold: the Ideal Safety Asset
Roach’s comments beg the question as to where one should invest in such troubling times. In a July 7th, 2003 article in Forbes, entitled “That Sinking Feeling,” by Michael Freedman, he was attributed as saying that he would think seriously about putting a “nontrivial portion” of his portfolio into precious metals like gold because it was “a safety asset” that will attract investors during any time of economic extremes - either inflation or deflation.

There you have it. Not very encouraging insights, all in all, but at least Roach has abandoned the “economic Armageddon” scenario he once predicted for America and embraced the concept of having some gold in one’s portfolio.To learn what other prominent economists, financial analysts, economic research firms and well-informed financial commentators have had to say about what has happened over the past year check out the 6-part series of articles I wrote back in 2006 entitled “Ominous Warnings and Dire Predictions of World’s Financial Experts.” You’ll be surprised how accurate they were, albeit somewhat sensational in language on occasion, as to what they expected to unfold in the years to come. And in most instances those ‘years to come’ have turned out to be 2008, 2009, 2010(?) and perhaps beyond.

Daily Technical Analysis Forex/Gold/USD Index

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex |

Euro: Euro had taken support from 1.3150 levels as expected but the downward bias is still on due to quantitative easing policy expectation from Eurozone. Its is staying below the trendline and the cluster resistance of 1.3250 which is unlikely to break. The weekly stochastics is turning downside showing extreme pressure for the pair. Look for short opportunities at every rise. (Eur/Usd:1.3160). Bearish.
Pound: The pair is forming a consolidation between the channel at its support at 1.4610 levels . Since it has unable to break the 1.4880 resistance twice coupled by falling euro and stronger dollar index the view is staying a bit neutral. Breaking of 1.4540 on a decisive note would change the view of pound to bearish again. (Gbp/Usd: 1.4640). Neutral.
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair would again aim at the weekly trendline near 101.80 levels . Currently it is holding above the 55 day weekly EMA . Confidence in the pair would arise only once 101.80 is breached and held consistently . Neutral (Usd/Jpy: 100.35).
Australian Dollar: Aussie is still maintaining above the trendline support . Look for entering long at dips around 0.7090- 0.7120 levels targeting 100 pips. (Aud/Usd: 0.7058).
Gold: Gold is holding below the daily and weekly trend lines and crucial moving averages. It is likely to be bearish in short term . Sell at retracements around 900 to 910 levels Bearish (Gold: $887.00)
Dollar index :The dollar index strengthened last week and closed above 55 days EMA, due to weakness in Euro. While it's still limited below near term resistance of 86.13, the case for resuming rally from 82.63 has been building up. We're still maintaining the view that key support of 82 level (cluster support of 61.8% retracement of 77.69 to 89.62 at 82.24 and 38.2% retracement of 70.70 to 89.62 at 82.39, as well as long term rising trend line at 82.03) intact. Break above 86.13 will set the stage for retesting 89.62 high. Though a break below 84.93 will dampen the bullish case and argues that some more sideway trading would be seen before an upside break out. Bullish.

IHSG Pekan Ini: Tug of War - Sentimen vs Teknikal

IHSG diperkirakan menguat berkat pola indikator teknikal yg masih uptrend & sentimen positif dari kenaikan saham regional Asia & Wall Street pada hari Kamis, berkat kejutan laba Q1 bank AS, Wells Fargo. Kenaikan saham finansial AS dan kenaikan harga komoditi dapat mengangkat saham perbankan (BBRI, BBCA, BMRI, BBNI, BDMN) dan komoditi pertambangan, pertanian, perkebunan (BUMI, PTBA, AALI, ITMG, INDY, UNSP, ADRO, SGRO, PGAS, MEDC), kendati dibayangi kondisi overbought. Sementara potensi kenaikan infrastruktur (ISAT, TLKM) terbatas pada hari Senin.

Untuk pekan ini, dimana pekan lalu sesuai perkiraan berada dalam range 1,450-1,530. IHSG diperkirakan akan mendapatkan hambatan untuk menguat lebih lanjut, tertahan di tahanan 1,530-1,570, berkat perkiraan 'Pekan Maut' dengan serangkaian rilisan data ekonomi Global :retail sales, ip, ppi, cpi AS, GDP Q1 China (p: 6.3%) 16/04. Earnings AS & Inggris: GE (jumat), J&J, Google,Intel, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup. Testimony Fed Bernanke (Selasa), dapat meningkatkan volatilitas pasar pada pekan ini. Sebelumnya data money supply + new yuan loan China melonjak di bulan Maret, diikuti komentar Presiden Obama bahwa beliau melihat 'glimmer of hope' mengenai ekonomi AS.

Secara teknikal IHSG menunjukan pola candle three outside down (continuous bearish reversal sejak 06/04) & weekly candle evening doji star, meski trend bullish berkat pola cup with handle&MACD masih uptrend. Adanya potensi trendline rejection di resistance 1,530&1,570, dapat arahkan indeks ke 1,419/1,350 (sell on strength/profit taking BC). DJIA menunjukkan pola inverted head & shoulder untuk target 8535 jika tembus 8152 (bear market rally still) target 6.7k-7k di Q2.

Profit taking saham BUMI diatas 950 max 1k, ASII diatas 16-16.6k, TLKM diatas 7300-7500 (laggard), PTBA diatas 8k, AALi diatas 16-16k, BBRI diatas 5,200, Pgas diatas 2500, Antm diatas 1300, Inco diatas 3k, bmri diatas 2500. Buy on correction (14/15 Apr) unsp, smcb, elty, ctra, unvr, bbni, sgro target 10% risk <5%.

Disclaimer.

Kalender Ekonomi Global & Event (13-17 April 2009)

Date WIB +11 Jam Currency Impact
Sun
Apr 12 All Day NZD Bank Holiday
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
7:50pm JPY CGPI y/y
Mon
Apr 13 All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
10:30am CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
6:45pm NZD Retail Sales m/m
6:45pm NZD Core Retail Sales m/m
9:30pm AUD NAB Business Confidence
Tue
Apr 14 8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30am USD PPI m/m
8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m
8:30am USD Core PPI m/m
10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m
10:30am USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
1:30pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
7:01pm GBP RICS House Price Balance
8:30pm AUD MI Leading Index m/m
15th-29th AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
Wed
Apr 15 12:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m
2:00am EUR German WPI m/m
4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y
8:30am CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
8:30am USD Core CPI m/m
8:30am USD CPI m/m
8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases
9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate
9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index
2:00pm USD Beige Book
6:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index
7:01pm GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
9:30pm AUD RBA Monthly Bulletin
Thu
Apr 16 3:15am CHF PPI m/m
5:00am EUR CPI y/y
5:00am EUR Core CPI y/y
5:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m
8:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m
8:30am USD Building Permits
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
8:30am USD Housing Starts
10:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage
1:00pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
6:45pm NZD CPI q/q
6:45pm NZD FPI m/m
7:50pm JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
8:00pm USD FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
9:30pm AUD Import Prices q/q
11:00pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
Fri
Apr 17 1:00am JPY Household Confidence
3:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y
4:00am CHF SNB Chairman Roth Speaks
5:00am EUR Trade Balance
7:00am CAD Core CPI m/m
7:00am CAD CPI m/m
9:55am USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
9:55am USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
12:30pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
11:30pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
Sat
Apr 18 10:30am USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks
11:45am USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
4:15pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks