Update Daily Market Analysis 20/01

S&P 500 May Retreat 7% by End of February: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4EzHczhZBbY

Euro May Fall to 2010 Low on Cloud Failure: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ad7A3p3eIwhI

Gold to Gain in ‘Bull Trend,’ Barclays Says: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJgFlJ3UhFDI

Sugar May Jump 16% on ‘Buying Opportunities’: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akQL.s8Rvzr8

Crude Oil May Surge to $117 by End of Year: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6Z8BQ0kRE6E

S&P 500 Due for Pullback, Strategas Says: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aL4.pOEeNQc0

Euro May Avoid Medium-Term Drop, Lloyds Says: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqGF6h.J7afU

Goldman Commodities Risk Near 7-Year Low
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41159523

Stocks Headed for a Correction?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1752095723&play=1

Resolutions 2011: CNBC Poll—Confidence In The Stock Market
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41076685

Thursday Look Ahead: Further Bumps for Stocks After Worst Day in 2 Months?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41163748

It's January, Time For A Portfolio Tune-Up
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41022553

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Admiral Markets The Daily Wave Analysis

Currency pair EUR/USD
The price has updated again the local maximum, presumably having finished the impulse v of (c) of [x]. If the assumption is true, it is possible to expect the beginning of decrease in pair as formation of the impulse (wedge) (a) of [y].

Currency pair GBP/USD.
Ascending movement of the price which has begun on January, 7th, 2011, actual market mood looks not finished, that allows to look at the prospective wave (y) of [b] not much differently. Result on the Figure. Presumably, the wave (y) of [b] takes the form of the simple Zigzag at which the impulse with of (y) comes to the end. B same time the price comes nearer to level of cancellation of the given scenario. That speaks about possibility of realisation of alternative.

Currency pair USD/JPY.
Presumably, the correctional wave [ii] of 3 becomes the Double Zigzag at which the impulse with of (y) of [ii] comes to an end. If the assumption is true, after its end, it is possible to expect the beginning of strengthening of US dollar as the first waves of the impulse [iii] of 3. 

Forecasts for the Economy and Financial Markets 2010-2012

One of my first essays with forecasts was in the Spring of 2004. In that piece, I had seven specific forecasts. What were they and how have those forecasts fared? Here they are along with my commentary (keep in mind that they were made March 2004).
1. The Dow will go below 6,000.
As of July 2010, this one was wrong.
2. The dollar will drop at least another 25%.
This one came true by early 2008.
3. Gold will hit $1,000 an ounce.
This also came true in early 2008.
4. Silver will hit $50 an ounce.
I was way off on this one but I will consider this forecast as a “work in progress” since I ultimately expect it to hit (and exceed) $50.
5. The real estate/ mortgage bubble will pop.
This is a “big hit”.The real estate market will not have a healthy recovery for at least a few years.
6. We will have a severe recession.
This is also a hit; the recession that became termed “the Great Recession” actually started in December of 2007 and was not considered technically done until 2009.
7. We will surpass 2 million bankruptcies & foreclosures.
This forecast was also a “hit” as we passed 2 million bankruptcies and foreclosures in 2007.

Of the 7 forecasts, 5 were very accurate, one was very close and one was not. All things considered, not a bad forecasting record. When you add in the public forecasts from my national seminars (such as the sub-prime crisis and the commodities bull market), the accuracy rate is actually much higher.

In 2008, I did another forecast article and provided 6 forecasts; here they are again:
   1. You will see an inflationary depression that will be evident by 2010-11.
   2. Unemployment in the private sector will soar into double-digits by 2010.
   3. State and municipal governments will be federal bailout candidates during 2010-2011.
   4. Commodities will start the next leg of their long-term bull market starting in 2009.
   5. We will see oil hit $200 as Peak oil becomes obvious to all during 2009-2012.
   6. International conflicts over natural resources will hit the headlines during 2009-12.

Here is a partial list of my forecasts (the full list appeared in this month’s Prosperity Alert newsletter):
   1. Gold will head to $2,000 and beyond during the next three years
   2. Silver will hit $25 during the next 12 months and soar to $100 by 2012
   3. Oil will be $100 by 2011 and onward to $200 by 2012-2013.
   4. IF THE TAX CUTS EXPIRE…we will have a “greater depression” start by 2011.
   5. The Federal deficit will hit $2 TRILLION during 2011-2013.

Paul Mladjenovic, CFP is a financial seminar leader, author of Stock Investing for Dummies and the editor of the Prosperity Alert newsletter. His main website is www.SuperMoneyLinks.com  and you can follow Paul at www.twitter.com/PaulMlad.
© 2010 Copyright Paul Mladjenovic - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer.

Look Ahead: Strategists See Modestly Higher 2010

By: Patti Domm Executive Editor
Stocks should make a more subdued move higher in the coming year, and the Fed is not likely to raise interest rates until at least mid-year.That is the collective view of nine major Wall Street banks, which on average forecast a 9.5 percent gain in the S&P 500 to a level of 1222 for 2010. The S&P, so far this year, has gained 24 percent, more than the Dow's 19 percent and behind the Nasdaq's 43 percent. The consensus view from the nine banks is to "underweight" or "bench mark" U.S. equities. They also expect gold at $1,213 an ounce; oil at $80 per barrel and the dollar versus the euro at a level of $1.45, slightly below where it is now. This tally is courtesy of Birinyi Associates, which combed through some 3,500 pages of 2010 outlooks and compiled the expectations of the firms. Their average outlook for the U.S. economy includes growth of 3.1 percent. The firm with the lowest growth forecast was Goldman Sachs, at 2.1 percent, and the most bullish on growth was Deutsche Bank, at 4.9 percent.