Commodity: Debunking 'The Gold Bubble' in 3 Charts

Debunking 'The Gold Bubble' in 3 Charts
Gold continued to make headlines this week, reaching nearly $1,900 an ounce on Friday before resting around the $1,850 level. Gold’s 15 percent rise to new nominal highs over the past month has rekindled “gold bubble” talk from many pundits. Long-term gold bulls have been forced to listen to these naysayers since gold reached $500 an ounce. If you would have joined their groupthink then, you would’ve missed gold’s roughly 270 percent rise since.

Read More: http://www.econmatters.com/2011/08/debunking-gold-bubble-in-3-charts-guest.html

Weekly Charting Precious Metals Gold Silver And Platinum
While Gold received most of the headlines/attention in the last few weeks, what has been quietly happening to Silver and Platinum prices? Let’s take a look at the parabolic move in Gold and see what the companion moves have been in related precious metals Silver and Platinum.

Read More: http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/08/22/weekly-charting-precious-metals-gold-silver-and-platinum/

Commodity Currencies Advance As Markets Price In QE3
Fundamental Headlines

• Gold Advances to Record as Platinum Climbs – Bloomberg

• Housing’s Drag on Economy May Worsen – Bloomberg

• Italy’s Debt May Swell as Austerity Chokes Growth – Bloomberg

• Bernanke to Aid Recovery with Gradual Boost in Dosage – Reuters

• Rebels Seize Most of Tripoli – WSJ

Read More: http://www.dailymarkets.com/forex/2011/08/22/commodity-currencies-advance-as-markets-price-in-qe3/

Commodity Review and Second-Half Outlook: Part 1 & 2

CTA ini akan diajarkan pada Workshop CTA HITSAHAM Level Intermediate - Pre Advanced (When Japan Combined With American T.A Style To Know When Market Will Bull Rally / Crash) pada 10-11 Sept di Jakarta & 24-25 Sept di Surabaya.

Crude Oil: Fase Distribusi in Heiken Ashi, Selling Power Dominan & Down Channel membatasi momentum kenaikan Short-Term

Gold: Strong Buying Power, Fase Akumulasi dalam Heiken Ashi, Uptrend Channel With Wave 5 Extend

 

@Copyrights: CTA HITSAHAM

Commodity Review and Second-Half Outlook: Part 1
By Taras Berezoswky

With all the “halftime reports” flying around on how commodities fared in the first half of 2011, we thought we’d weigh in and at least try to sort out what’s what – both on metals fundamentals or speculative market trends. While we’re not setting out to provide an absolutely comprehensive commodity report here, we’ll try to hit a few past highlights/lowlights and a few signals pointing to future activity.

Commodity Review and Second-Half Outlook: Part 2
Aluminum, Zinc and the LME
Although aluminum by some standards has been in the dumps lately (i.e. throughout Q2), we can encapsulate much of the light metal’s activity to the LME warehousing issue. Even though the LME has just doubled the amount of tonnage that may be removed per warehouse per day, it won’t be effective until next April.

Read More:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/282617-commodity-review-and-second-half-outlook-part-1

http://seekingalpha.com/article/282618-commodity-review-and-second-half-outlook-part-2

With Technical Support, Base Metals Are a Solid Long-Term Holding
From a technical standpoint, copper, zinc and lead look attractive. Base metals weren’t immune to the aggressive selling witnessed in other commodity markets over the past month. The sector plunged in the period, with prices for all of the major metals hitting multi-month lows.

Read More: http://seekingalpha.com/article/288608-with-technical-support-base-metals-are-a-solid-long-term-holding

Another Commodities Bull Run By QE3?

By Commodities Now
The dark cloud over the US economy has had a small silver lining for commodity prices in the form of renewed expectations of yet another bout of quantitative easing from the Fed and a lower dollar. However, Capital Economics think it is far too soon to expect QE3. What’s more, there is only so much that monetary policy could do to offset weakness of final demand for commodities, according to Julian Jessop of Capital Economics.

Read More: http://www.econmatters.com/2011/07/another-commodities-bull-run-by-qe3.html

Commodity & S&P 500 Index Outlook

Expect Oil Prices to Drop Through Rest of the Year
http://seekingalpha.com/article/275204-expect-oil-prices-to-drop-through-rest-of-the-year

Reasons for Lower Oil Prices
http://seekingalpha.com/article/275536-reasons-for-lower-oil-prices

Oil Back Below 200-Day Moving Average
http://seekingalpha.com/article/276317-oil-back-below-200-day-moving-average

Base metals outlook by Kotak Commodities
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-recos-others/base-metals-outlook-by-kotak-commodities_558977.html

Nickel falls victim to coming wave of supply
http://www.steelguru.com/stainless_steel_news/Nickel_falls_victim_to_coming_wave_of_supply/210768.html

Gold price above $2,000 or below $1,000 unsustainable - BofA
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page504?oid=129895&sn=Detail

Barclays Mostly Bullish On Commodities
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=BA430E28-B46D-79D0-164B74EBA2AB3EFC

Recession Projected for 2012-2013
http://seekingalpha.com/article/275091-recession-projected-for-2012-2013

Forecasting S&P 500 Downward Correction
http://seekingalpha.com/article/273888-forecasting-s-p-500-downward-correction

The Power Race: Natural Gas vs. Coal (My Favourite!)

While the natural gas market is still recovering from the flash crash, ExxonMobil (XOM) came along and delivered a booster shot by announcing its latest acquisition – $1.69 billion for two privately held natural gas companies in the Marcellus play--Phillips Resources and related company TWP Inc.

Read More: http://seekingalpha.com/article/275802-the-power-race-natural-gas-vs-coal

Today in Commodities: Tomorrow We Will Know
Based on what happens in Greece overnight and tomorrow's FOMC meeting we should be able to determine where to position clients moving forward. Crude held its own but do not read into the big volume jump as it is just the July/August roll over. We are cautiously optimistic thinking yesterday's lows could serve as an interim bottom. Assuming we trade higher from current levels a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement would lift prices in August to $101.30/barrel.

Read More: http://seekingalpha.com/article/275993-today-in-commodities-tomorrow-we-will-know

Barclays Capital Survey Says China and Commodities Still Favorable

Barclays Capital held their 4th annual China Commodities Seminar in Suzhou last week of April, 2011. The seminar was attended by around 50 representatives from major producers, consumers and trading houses, primarily in the energy and metals sectors. During the event, BarCap surveyed participants on their outlook for a number of areas. The key findings are below.

Read More: http://www.econmatters.com/2011/05/barclays-capital-survey-says-china-and.html

Commodity (Copper / Nickel / Oil) Market Analysis

Analysis: Too early to call a bear market for copper
(Reuters) - An exodus of investors from the copper market could see prices slip to the $8,000 a ton mark before heading back toward record highs later this year as stronger demand from China and Japan becomes visible.

Read More: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/10/businesspro-us-copper-prices-idUSTRE74922R20110510

REFILE-Nickel outlook least promising due to supply -BNP Paribas
SYDNEY May 10 (Reuters) - BNP Paribas on Tuesday singled out nickel as the lone price under performer this year among base metals commodities, despite seeing a supply deficit for the second year running. The bank's senior metals markets strategist Stephen Briggs forecast each of the major London Metal Exchange-traded metals to finish the fourth quarter of 2011 higher than when they started, except for nickel, which Briggs said is headed for an 11 percent drop.

Read More: http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E7GA0GF20110510

Special report: What triggered oil's greatest rout
(Reuters) - When oil prices fell below $120 a barrel in early New York trade last Thursday, a few big companies that are major oil consumers started buying around

Read More: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/09/us-financial-oil-rout-idUSTRE7480AI20110509 \]

Goldman Sees Commodity Recovery as Slump Erases $99 Billion
May 9 (Bloomberg) -- The commodities rout that knocked off $99 billion of market value last week is driving out speculators and leading Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which forecast the plunge, to predict a possible recovery.

Read More: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-05-09/goldman-sees-commodity-recovery-as-slump-erases-99-billion.html

The Commodities Bubble Hasn't Burst – It's Just Taking a Breather

By Kerri Shannon, Associate Editor, Money Morning
Panicked investors retreated from silver, oil and copper this week, leading many to believe the commodities bubble had finally popped - but experts say this bull market will pick up again.

The Standard & Poor's GSCI Index that follows 24 raw materials fell as much as 11.4% in five days, the longest losing streak since August.Some analysts believe concerns about a weakened economic recovery have spurred investors to take their commodity profits. However, others say this price slip is fear-driven and short term, and that key reasons to believe in a commodities bull run still exist.

Read More: http://moneymorning.com/2011/05/06/commodities-bubble-hasnt-burst-just-taking-breather/

Copper Price Forecast: Why the Red Metal is on a Long-Term Bull Run

By Kerri Shannon, Associate Editor, Money Morning
With metals and commodities on a long-term bull-market run, investors have recently turned their attention to copper. The red metal's price recently has fallen due to mixed economic data. Copper's use as an industrial metal - it's widely used in buildings, electronics, appliances and automobiles - makes it sensitive to economic growth prospects. But despite the recent dip, many analysts and industry experts have a bullish copper price forecast.

Read More: http://moneymorning.com/2011/05/06/copper-price-forecast-why-red-metal-is-on-long-term-bull-run/

Oil Price Battle of The Big Banks: Goldman v. BofA and Barclays

By Dian L. Chu, EconMatters

Continuing its downward shift from the week before, crude oil fell sharply on Monday, April 18 after S&P lowered its U.S. credit outlook to negative, and OPEC said high crude prices could pressure global economy. ICE Brent crude for June fell $1.84 to settle at $121.61 a barrels, while WTI (West Texas Intermediate) for May delivery also fell $2.54 to settle at $107.12 on NYMEX. 

Read More: http://www.econmatters.com/2011/04/oil-price-battle-of-big-banks-goldman-v.html

Base Metals: Second Quarter Outlook

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Based on fundamental factors of base metals and macroeconomic aspects, we provide the second quarter outlook for base metals -- aluminum, copper, zinc, lead and nickel. Furthermore, we present four base metal stocks which have potential upside based on average analyst consensus estimates.

Performance Base Metals
Base metals ended 2011 first quarter on a mixed note with single-digit percentage gains in nickel, lead and aluminum, and modest losses in zinc and copper. Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and implications of the catastrophic events in Japan has piled pressure on prices. Heightening demand uncertainty ballooned inventory across the entire base metals complex, except nickel.

Read More: http://www.thestreet.com/story/11084110/1/base-metals-second-quarter-outlook.html?cm_ven=RSSFeed&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+tsc%2Ffeeds%2Frss%2Flatest-stories+%28TheStreet.com+Latest+Headlines%29

Oil Prices Look to Top $150 by Midsummer On Resilient Demand and MENA Turmoil

Money Morning predicted in its 2011 Outlook series that oil prices would see $100 a barrel by summer. And that's proven to be true - but not entirely for the reasons we discussed.

In addition to the increased demand we talked about in January, violence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has driven oil prices into the stratosphere. The price of light, sweet crude climbed above $112 a barrel last week, up more than 22% from where it started the year.

Read More: http://moneymorning.com/2011/04/14/oil-prices-look-to-top-150-by-midsummer-on-resilient-demand-and-mena-turmoil/

Are You Bullish or Bearish on Precious Metals?

Investors have been flocking to precious metals to protect from looming inflation and a weak outlook for the U.S. dollar. The trend has turned investments related to gold, silver and other precious metals into some of the hottest plays of the past year.

Read More: http://moneymorning.com/2011/04/12/are-you-bullish-or-bearish-on-precious-metals/

Copper Prices Update: Prosper as Copper Becomes the "New Gold"

The Statue of Liberty is one of the most recognizable American icons in the world.
And as she towers 305 feet above Ellis Island, what's Lady Liberty wearing? Copper - 60,000 pounds of it. Clearly, copper's big in art. It's also a key metal that keeps the world economy humming. Copper consumption has grown at an average annual rate of 4% since 1900. China and India - which some analysts describe as the combined market of "Chindia" - where one of every three human beings resides, needs loads of this element to meet its modernization requirements for electricity and infrastructure.

Read More: http://moneymorning.com/2011/04/01/copper-prices-update-prosper-as-copper-becomes-the-new-gold/

Higher oil prices may dent copper, platinum: Goldman Sachs

(MarketWatch) -- Copper and platinum futures will face "near-term headwinds" as higher oil prices could mean lack of demand for the metals, analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients distributed Monday. The commodities are also "exposed to supply chain problems resulting from the earthquakes in Japan," particularly platinum given its large exposure to global automobile production, the analysts added.

Read More: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/higher-oil-prices-may-dent-copper-platinum-gs-2011-04-11

Base Metal valuations overstretched by all standards
AHMEDABAD (Commodity Online): Except Aluminium, other base metals on London Metal Exchange were trading with marginal loss during Asian session. Nickel and Lead were the major losers in metal complex. While, Aluminium prices were trading upside flat.

Read More: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Base-Metal-valuations-overstretched-by-all-standards-38121-3-1.html

Why Investing in Precious Metals and Energy is STILL the Way to Go
Why I Put Almost All My Eggs Into Precious Metals

“I have put almost all of my eggs in one basket – precious metals, energy and agriculture - with the bulk being in precious metals. These are diversified only in that they span bullion, geography and the range of very large to the very early stage junior exploration companies. A third of my investments are either in individual stocks (or their long-term warrants should they have any) of which many of the companies are  juniors and the other two thirds are in ETFs which invest in a range of larger-cap precious metals stocks.”  Let me tell you why I thought it was a good idea at the time and still think it is. Words: 1100

Read More: http://www.munknee.com/2011/03/why-investing-in-precious-metals-and-energy-is-still-the-way-to-go/

Commodity: 10 Reasons to Short Gold Futures

Recently, I shared my research on the current valuation of gold companies. My primary aim was to show how gold stocks are immensely correlated with gold prices. Readers' interest was high, and extremely defensive. Therefore, after performing due diligence on the spread between gold futures and spot prices, I decided to short gold futures (x10) in European capital markets. While this is an extremely risky move for a long-term investor, I believe it was the right time to do so. Here are 10 reasons why I decided to take this risk:
Read More: http://seekingalpha.com/article/262086-10-reasons-to-short-gold-futures?source=feed

Industrial metals (copper, aluminium, nickel, etc.) daily review
http://www.stockmarketsreview.com/commodities/base_metals_daily_review_20110406_128838/

China's Chinalco sees strong copper, aluminium in 2011
(Reuters) - Growing global copper consumption and strong fundamentals are expected to support the metal's price in 2011, an executive at China's state-owned aluminium giant said on Tuesday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/05/chinalco-outlook-idUSL3E7F505K20110405

Revolution Or Evolution In The World Oil Market?

By Bob van der Valk
Time has not made much of a difference since 2008...at least in the price of crude.  The price for the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was $107 a barrel on September 28, 2008, vs. around $105 per barrel today.

On the other hand, the average price at the pump was $2.57 a gallon then, compared with the average is $3.58 per gallon today.  The chart below shows the average price for the period from March 24, 2009 through March 24, 2011):

Read More: http://www.econmatters.com/2011/03/revolution-or-evolution-in-world-oil.html

The Commodities Boom of 2011: Coal Will Be the New Gold

The run-up in commodities prices has been a long one. And it shows no signs of abating.

As a Money Morning reader, you know that we predicted this run-up. Back in October 2007, for instance, we told readers to buy gold - when it was trading at $770 an ounce. Those of you who followed our advice have done quite well. But now it's time to make a new prediction. The run-up in commodities prices isn't going to end. But it is going to change.

Read More: http://moneymorning.com/2011/02/23/commodities-boom-2011-coal-will-be-the-new-gold/

Oil and Gold Prices Surge as Speculators Bet Billions Shorting the Dollar

Oil reached a 29-month high (yesterday) Monday morning in London and gold hit an intraday record as investors sought to hedge against inflation and traders bet billions shorting the dollar.

Brent crude futures contracts in London gained 0.1% yesterday to close at $116.11 a barrel, pushed higher by the Middle East crisis disrupting the oil supply. Crude for April delivery was up 0.9% to $105.36 in Monday afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

Fighting in Libya so far has reduced the country's oil output by 1 million barrels per day.

Source: http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/08/oil-and-gold-prices-surge-as-speculators-bet-billions-shorting-the-dollar/

Commodities Bull Is Raging

Precious metals, oil and other commodities will continue to move firmly upward because there simply isn't enough supply out there to meet growing demand, as Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management discusses in this exclusive interview with MoneyShow.com. 

Detail Sources: http://www.moneyshow.com/investing/articles.asp?aid=VideoTrans-22258 

Technical Analysis - Copper - Hesitates below overhead supply

Detail Sources: http://basemetals.com/news/?id=28141&v=33&lang=en&cid=133735&type=1

Technical Analysis - Zinc - On course to test neckline

Detail Sources: http://basemetals.com/news/?id=27533&v=49&lang=en&cid=133816&type=1

Nickel futures down on weak global cues
Nickel prices fell by Rs 2.80 to Rs 1,299.40 per kg in futures trading today as speculators reduced their positions amid weak trend at the London Metal Exchange (LME).

Detail Sources: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/nickel-futures-down-on-weak-global-cues/articleshow/7646405.cms

Global steel price jumps 10pct in February - MEPS
http://www.steelguru.com/international_news/Global_steel_price_jumps_10pct_in_February_-_MEPS/194205.html

Steel price dip may continue - MOFCOM
http://www.steelguru.com/chinese_news/Steel_price_dip_may_continue_-_MOFCOM/194153.html

Gold and iron expected to rise, copper steady
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-and-iron-expected-to-rb-3021133876.html?x=0&.v=2

6 Years And Counting: Why Investing In Commodities Is Still The Way To Go

Back in 2005 I commented in an article that “my investment portfolio is almost exclusively invested in a basket of commodities (gold, silver, potash, uranium and crude oil) of which the bulk is precious metals. A third of my investments are in gold and silver bullion and a range of individual commodity-related stocks, from the very large producers to the very early stage small junior exploration companies, or their long-term warrants where they exist. Two thirds are in precious metals ETFs.”

It is now 2011 and my rationale for doing what I did back then has stood the test of time and, I expect, will continue to do so for many more years to come.

Let me explain why I still think such a basket of commodity-related assets is the only way to go. I also encourage you to read my recent article entitled “Confessions of a Conservative Investor” here in which I explain why I believe there is nothing speculative about investing in commodities and why, in fact, they are the ideal investments for cautious investors.

Detail Sources: http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2011/03/06/6-years-and-counting-why-investing-in-commodities-is-still-the-way-to-go/

Coal, Not Yet A “Fossil”
Most of us know coal as a dirty, black, smelly fossil fuel that has made investors some clean, green and sweet profits recently. I believe that investment in coal remains bullish,and here’s why:

1. While the media focuses on new energy technologies, the truth is that less than of power produced worldwide is through solar and wind. While there is obviously growth potential, the cost outweighs the hype in our present economic environment.

2. Natural gas supplies only 20% of electricity globally.

3. Steel production uses over 10% of world coal production. 70$ of the world’s steel
production requires coal as the primary energy source. It takes approximately
1300 lbs. of coal (coke) to produce one ton of steel.

4. Over 40% of the world’s electricity comes from coal-fired plants.

5. China,the worlds largest consumer of coal, with even more coal-fired power
plants coming online, is betting on fossil fuel even as it sells alternative energy technologies to the West.

6. Coal usage is expected to trend up over the next decade. Cleaner coal technology
is already showing improvements in carbon and other pollutant emissions.

Detail Sources: http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2011/03/05/coal-not-yet-a-fossil/#comment-233969

The Commodities Boom of 2011: Coal Will Be the New Gold

Martin Hutchinson writes: The run-up in commodities prices has been a long one. And it shows no signs of abating. As a Money Morning reader, you know that we predicted this run-up. Back in October 2007, for instance, we told readers to buy gold - when it was trading at $770 an ounce. Those of you who followed our advice have done quite well.

But now it's time to make a new prediction.

The run-up in commodities prices isn't going to end. But it is going to change.
You see, commodities are going to break into two distinct groups: Traditional inflation hedges, such as gold, and big industrial commodities, such as coal. Going forward, the industrial path will be the one that investors will want to travel for maximum profit. Here's the No. 1 way to play what we're calling "the commodities boom of 2011."

Details: http://moneymorning.com/2011/02/23/commodities-boom-2011-coal-will-be-the-new-gold/

Commodity and Financial Markets Cycles Analysis

Hugh Hendry of Eclectica Asset Management and Gary Shilling of A Gary Shilling Company are bearish on China, and the world. We must pay respect to both of these market players as they have had an abundance of correct market calls in the past. Their opinions are contrarian, so for trends to change, major cycles must be ready to roll over. Lets review a few...

First, how can market cycles roll over in a world undergoing massive quantitative easing (QE1 and QE2)? Is it possible that the US Federal Reserve as tamed the market so that there is no more pullbacks, swings or cycles. The US has experienced 'the before/during' quantitative easing (QE = money printing), and has yet undergo the 'after'.  A quick review of the 'before' and 'after' effects on the N225 from quantitative easing during Japanese great deflationary bust shows that the 'after' can be very unpleasant.

N225 Chart

We can see the N225 rallied hard during each of the Japanese quantitative easing (QE) periods. However when QE ended so did the rallies. The American QE programs have been back to back (2009 and 2010), unlike the Japanese experience. One can only imagine what will happen to the worlds financial markets when the American QE ends, if it is anything like the Japanese experience then I fear that the cycles rolling over will be very severe. Copper, Australian and Canadian dollar have all enjoyed strong bullish cycles. They will be our subjects.

The Australian Dollar and Copper are two securities that are aligned to China success story. Copper has been used heavily within Chinese construction industry, and Australia has supplied much of it to them, along with steel, coal, etc. Any hick up with China's story and these two securities will roll over hard. China cannot sustain 10% GDP growth without exports to both Europe and USA. Yet the America and Europe economies have lived off QE to support their GDP growth. What if the QE stops or paused for a few years, what then. If growth cant be maintained without QE, what will happen to the Australian, Canadian dollar and copper cycles, that is easy they will roll over hard !

We all now that the rise and fall of the US dollar as much to do with the cycles below, markets are very correlated. Comments on the US dollar can be found here: US Dollar currency, short term bullish, long term bearish not so sure

NOTE: The cycles found the charts that follow were found with RTT Cycle Finder Spectrum.

Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

Copper in US Dollars

Canadian Dollar

For the world to avoid these cycles rolling over during 2011/12 quantitative easing would need to be continuous. Its too early to say how or when stimulus Keynesian polices will end, I fear that they never will. As the politicians and central bankers have enjoyed this economic power, and power does corrupt.

Readtheticker
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