@IHSG & DJIA: Bear Market Rally Still Exist, Distribution Phase Should Limit Upside Move

IHSG:

DJIA:

@Consolidation Pattern Ahead of Fed Bernanke, US GDP Q2, IMF Lagarde

IHSG:

DJIA:

VIX INDEX:

Are These Just A "Subwave Correction" or A Real "Flash Crash"

Zoom The Picture:
Cycle Solar: Peak of Heating Month For Market

IHSG: Moon Cycle - Not A Worry About Signal of Crash (Not Yet!)

DJIA:

Rally Off Weekly Confluence Support Shows Bullish Strength In Triple Index Check

I’m assuming most traders were surprised at the recent power-rally in the US Equity Markets recently. However, taken into the larger context or perspective, this rally formed off major “Make or Break” Confluence Support as best seen on the Weekly Chart. What started as a simple “retracement” buy-in has ignited a powerful “Positive Feedback Loop” that morphed into a powerful Short-Squeeze.

Read More: http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/07/07/rally-off-weekly-confluence-support-shows-bullish-strength-in-triple-index-check/

Lesson In Divergences Plus Trendline Breaks In Dollar March 31

It seems all traders seek to answer the same question:  “When is this market likely to reverse?”

Newer traders tend to love “reversal” style strategies, wanting to enter as close as possible to a trend reversal in order to have the tightest stop and biggest target possible.

While no strategy can call a top or bottom all the time, one of the best ones I’ve found is to look for multi-swing divergences followed by a trendline break as a high probability, low-risk trigger for entry into a potential major shift in a market trend.

Read More: http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/03/31/lesson-in-divergences-plus-trendline-breaks-in-dollar-march-31/

Update Technical Analysis Article News

Commodity Index May Gain 6.4%, Barclays Says: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLcSmJE7YgS4
S&P 500 Sell Signals Indicate Limited Gains: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=as.xI1q7lqyU
Euro Has Further to Gain, Citigroup Says: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4AEPgKqwaEU
Palm Oil Futures May Advance 16% by March: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMpihTlRSCtg
Aussie May Test One-Month Low Versus Yen: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adM32McLQJwQ
Dollar at Risk of Becoming 'Toxic Waste': Charts
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39828427
Dollar Selloff Is Going 'Too Far, Too Fast': Strategist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39827494
Market Rally on Weak Dollar Could Be Nearing an End
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39833438

Sell on rally euro above 1.2360 for (iii/c in 2/5) target 1.2000 stop above 1.2450, Closed sell DJIA breakout 10.408 target 10.200/10.040 (-40p). Disc On.

Sell DJIA breakout 10.408 target 10.200/10.040 = -40p
Closed Sell break 10.490 &10.570 at 10.370 = Profit +120 point + 200 Point 
Sell breakout 10.200 target 150/200p stop 30p (Use Trailing stop 100p). Buy 9.900 stop 100p, target 10.800. Sell 10.730 (fibo 38.2%) target 10.500 stop 30p. Buy break 10.840 target 10.920. stop 30p.

Closed buy breakout 10.680 &amp (-30p)
Closed Sell breakout 10.680 at 10.450 stop 30p = Profit +230 points. 
Closed Buy breakout DJIA 10440/10.530/10.620 (trendline) target 10.810 (ex support), stop loss 30 p.
Profit:  +370p + 280p + 190p =840 points. Track record 10 Trades: (-65p-30p+370p + 280p + 190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p). Total Net +1195 points = Average +119.5 points/trade.

DJIA Intraday Analysis 14-05

Closed Buy breakout DJIA 10440/10.530/10.620 (trendline) target 10.810 (ex support), stop loss 30 p.
Profit:  +370p + 280p + 190p =840 points. Track record 6 Trades: (-65p-30p+370p + 280p + 190p-20p).

Hold Sell breakout 10.680 target 10.400 stop 30p, sell break 10.290 & breakout 10.200 target 10.000 stop 30p. Buy 9.900 stop 100p, target 10.800, buy breakout 10.840 target 11.000 stop 30p.

DJIA Intraday Analysis (Revision)

Buy breakout DJIA 10440/10.530/10.620 (trendline) target 10.810 (ex support), stop loss 30 p.

Top 16: When the worst are over??? Be Prepared: Short Term Bearish vs Med-Term Bullish

May 4, 2010: Traditional bull market affects

The traditional affects of an expanding economy and a bull market have finally reached the yield curve. After nine months of positive GDP growth in the US economy and over 12 months of steady advances in the S&P 500, the yield curve is beginning to flatten. This action normally starts within the first 12 to 18 months of a bull market and its presence now is right on schedule.

Yield curves gradually steepen during economic contractions and bear markets. Central banks cut interest rates in an attempt to help ward off recessions and help stimulate the economy. As an economy bottoms and begins to recover, short-term rates slowly start to rise before long-term rates. This action gradually begins the long process of flattening the curve. Central banks periodically increase interest rates to help maintain longer growth and curb the risk of future inflation. By the end of a bull market and near a top in the business cycle, the yield curve is basically flat (Chart 1). As GDP stalls and begins to fall (Chart 2), the process of rate reduction and steepening of the yield curve starts again.

This standard movement of flattening of the yield curve should help reinforce the idea that this current upward rise in the S&P 500 is not just a bear market bounce but rather the the early phase of a longer bull market.
Bottom line: The action of the yield curve and the movement of the stock market is a traditional pattern. Short-term yields can be expected to slowing advance now and continue throughout the present business cycle and bull market.

Investment approach: Long-term investors should recognize the important significance of the yield curve to the bull market. This correlation should help investors maintain a positive approach to equities over the course of this anticipated 2009-2013/14 equity advance. The yield curve should also act as an early warning to the next peak in the stock market. Flat yield curves generally develop 8 to12 months before the crest of a bull market.

Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA