By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor
Odds are good that stocks will ride out the final week of the year on an upswing that could continue into early January.The market closed out the past week at the year's highs, and traders say the market has been setting up to move even higher in the coming week. There is little economic news to affect trading, but a big event will be the auction of some $118 billion in Treasury notes. Investors will also be watching for the latest tally on retailers' holiday sales.
Traders are anticipating a Santa Claus rally, which occurs when stocks rise in the final five sessions of the year and the first two of the new year. That trend has worked 77 percent of the time for the Dow since 1896, and the average gain in those up years has been 2.8 percent.The Dow finished the past week with a 1.9 percent gain at 10,520, which puts it up nearly 20 percent for the year. The S&P rose 2.2 percent to 1126 and is now up 24 percent for the year. The Nasdaq gained 3.4 percent for the week to 2285, and is up 45 percent for the year.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34587570
Showing posts with label Fokus Pekan Ini. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fokus Pekan Ini. Show all posts
Monday, December 28, 2009
Sunday, December 20, 2009
GLOBAL MARKETS WEEKAHEAD-Debt fears to sour holiday mood
By: AFX
By Natsuko Waki LONDON, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Persisting fears about sovereign and related debt from Greece to Dubai will keep investors occupied into 2010 after they enjoyed one of the best years for world stocks in the past two decades. Greek assets have taken a hammering after two credit ratings agencies downgraded the euro zone member this month on concerns about its fiscal health, blowing out spreads between Greek bonds and safer German alternatives to their widest since early April. Standard & Poor's also cut Mexico's credit ratings this week by one notch on fiscal concerns, while worries about Britain's fiscal and economic health are nagging investors after sterling hit two-month lows against the dollar this week. Such fiscal fears could easily chill sentiment for world stocks as the benchmark MSCI world equity index wraps up one of the best annual performances in its 20-year history -- up nearly 29 percent. In December however the index has barely made gains.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34477034/site/14081545/for/cnbc/
By Natsuko Waki LONDON, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Persisting fears about sovereign and related debt from Greece to Dubai will keep investors occupied into 2010 after they enjoyed one of the best years for world stocks in the past two decades. Greek assets have taken a hammering after two credit ratings agencies downgraded the euro zone member this month on concerns about its fiscal health, blowing out spreads between Greek bonds and safer German alternatives to their widest since early April. Standard & Poor's also cut Mexico's credit ratings this week by one notch on fiscal concerns, while worries about Britain's fiscal and economic health are nagging investors after sterling hit two-month lows against the dollar this week. Such fiscal fears could easily chill sentiment for world stocks as the benchmark MSCI world equity index wraps up one of the best annual performances in its 20-year history -- up nearly 29 percent. In December however the index has barely made gains.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34477034/site/14081545/for/cnbc/
Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (21 - 25 Desember 2009)
Dec 20 - Dec 26
Date WIB +1 Jam Currency Forecast Previous
Sun
Dec 20 4:45pm
NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -0.7%
6:50pm JPY Trade Balance 0.27T 0.42T
7:30pm AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 3.7%
9:00pm NZD Credit Card Spending y/y -0.4%
11:30pm JPY All Industries Activity m/m 1.1% -0.6%
Mon
Dec 21 12:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report
5:00am CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
8:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 1.1%
8:30am CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.9% 1.0%
4:45pm NZD Current Account -2.01B 0.12B
6:00pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.3%
Tue
Dec 22 2:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 3.6 3.7
2:00am JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
All Day ALL OPEC Meetings
2:15am CHF Trade Balance 2.79B 2.44B
4:30am GBP Current Account -8.1B -11.4B
4:30am GBP Final GDP q/q -0.1% -0.3%
8:30am USD Final GDP q/q 2.8% 2.8%
8:30am USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 0.5% 0.5%
9:00am EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate -4.3 -8.8
10:00am USD Existing Home Sales 6.31M 6.10M
10:00am USD HPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 4 1
4:45pm NZD GDP q/q 0.4% 0.1%
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
Wed
Dec 23 2:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m 0.2% 0.5%
2:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.5% 1.1%
4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.1%
4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 0-0-9 0-0-9
4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 43.3K 42.2K
4:30am GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.3% -0.1%
8:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.3% 0.4%
8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.2%
8:30am USD Personal Spending m/m 0.6% 0.7%
8:30am USD Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.2%
9:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 74.3 73.4
9:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.1%
10:00am USD New Home Sales 442K 430K
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.7M
6:50pm JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 11.2 15.5
6:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu
Dec 24 12:15am JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.9% -1.3%
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 471K 480K
8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% -0.6%
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -207B
All Day NZD Bank Holiday
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
6:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y 0.5% 1.6%
6:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y -1.8% -1.9%
6:30pm JPY National Core CPI y/y -1.7% -2.2%
6:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 5.2% 5.1%
6:50pm JPY CSPI y/y -1.9% -2.2%
Fri
Dec 25 12:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y -22.3% -27.1%
All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
Date WIB +1 Jam Currency Forecast Previous
Sun
Dec 20 4:45pm
NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -0.7%
6:50pm JPY Trade Balance 0.27T 0.42T
7:30pm AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 3.7%
9:00pm NZD Credit Card Spending y/y -0.4%
11:30pm JPY All Industries Activity m/m 1.1% -0.6%
Mon
Dec 21 12:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report
5:00am CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
8:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 1.1%
8:30am CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.9% 1.0%
4:45pm NZD Current Account -2.01B 0.12B
6:00pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.3%
Tue
Dec 22 2:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 3.6 3.7
2:00am JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
All Day ALL OPEC Meetings
2:15am CHF Trade Balance 2.79B 2.44B
4:30am GBP Current Account -8.1B -11.4B
4:30am GBP Final GDP q/q -0.1% -0.3%
8:30am USD Final GDP q/q 2.8% 2.8%
8:30am USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 0.5% 0.5%
9:00am EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate -4.3 -8.8
10:00am USD Existing Home Sales 6.31M 6.10M
10:00am USD HPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 4 1
4:45pm NZD GDP q/q 0.4% 0.1%
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
Wed
Dec 23 2:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m 0.2% 0.5%
2:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.5% 1.1%
4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.1%
4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 0-0-9 0-0-9
4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 43.3K 42.2K
4:30am GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.3% -0.1%
8:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.3% 0.4%
8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.2%
8:30am USD Personal Spending m/m 0.6% 0.7%
8:30am USD Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.2%
9:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 74.3 73.4
9:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.1%
10:00am USD New Home Sales 442K 430K
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.7M
6:50pm JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 11.2 15.5
6:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu
Dec 24 12:15am JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.9% -1.3%
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 471K 480K
8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% -0.6%
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -207B
All Day NZD Bank Holiday
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
6:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y 0.5% 1.6%
6:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y -1.8% -1.9%
6:30pm JPY National Core CPI y/y -1.7% -2.2%
6:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 5.2% 5.1%
6:50pm JPY CSPI y/y -1.9% -2.2%
Fri
Dec 25 12:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y -22.3% -27.1%
All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
Monday, December 14, 2009
Week Ahead: Stocks Look Ready to Push Past 2009 Highs
By: Patti Domm Executive Editor
Stocks should trend higher in the coming week and are in easy striking distance of a new high for the year.The quadruple options expiration on Friday could add a flurry of volatility, but investors should take encouragement from a recent batch of better economic data that has some economists ratcheting up forecasts for fourth quarter growth. JPMorgan, for one, raised expectations for fourth quarter GDP growth to 4.5 percent from 3.5 percent after upside surprises in inventories, net exports and retail sales.In the coming week, the Fed holds its final meeting of the year, and inflation data, industrial production, jobless claims and housing reports will dominate the economic news. Traders say stocks could meet little resistance in their upward climb, barring no new nasty surprises, like the Dubai World debt restructuring. They also expect the coming week will see even fewer players participating in the markets ahead of year end.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34386608
Stocks should trend higher in the coming week and are in easy striking distance of a new high for the year.The quadruple options expiration on Friday could add a flurry of volatility, but investors should take encouragement from a recent batch of better economic data that has some economists ratcheting up forecasts for fourth quarter growth. JPMorgan, for one, raised expectations for fourth quarter GDP growth to 4.5 percent from 3.5 percent after upside surprises in inventories, net exports and retail sales.In the coming week, the Fed holds its final meeting of the year, and inflation data, industrial production, jobless claims and housing reports will dominate the economic news. Traders say stocks could meet little resistance in their upward climb, barring no new nasty surprises, like the Dubai World debt restructuring. They also expect the coming week will see even fewer players participating in the markets ahead of year end.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34386608
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Week Ahead: Road Upward for Stocks Is Getting Rougher
CNBC.com
The road higher for stocks is likely to be a slower, more difficult climb that could get bumpy along the way. For that reason, a number of strategists have been recommending investors steer clear of lower quality stocks and focus instead on those with better balance sheets for this next leg of the trip. In the week ahead, markets will be tested by a fresh batch of economic news and will be dominated by the debate over whether the dollar's behavior signals the beginning of a turn for the greenback. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is in the spotlight Monday when he speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, and President Obama is expected to unveil a new plan to promote job creation Tuesday. Retail sales, international trade and weekly jobless claims are some of the important numbers to watch. The Treasury is auctioning $74 billion in 3-years, 10-years and 30-year bonds Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/us_news/34282463
Rally may have legs, but beware of Scrooge
(Reuters) - If the bulls have their way, Wall Street's rally will keep going next week on signs of stability in the labor market. But concerns about penny-pinching consumers during the holiday shopping season and the specter of higher interest rates may be a hurdle to jump.The Standard & Poor's 500 is up 63.5 percent from a 12-year closing low on March 9, while expectations of a significant sell-off before year-end have waned. Any dip is likely to be met with buyers eager to get into the market.Investors are optimistic that the U.S. economy is on the path to recovery, albeit a slow one, after Friday's data showed employers cut far fewer jobs than expected in November.Even so, worries that consumers will remain frugal during the holiday shopping season are keeping a lid on investors' enthusiasm. And after Friday's data showing the labor market picture improved in November, there's speculation that the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates sooner than previously expected.
http://mobile.reuters.com/mobile/m/FullArticle/p.rdt/CBUS/nbusinessNews_uUSTRE5B401N20091205
The road higher for stocks is likely to be a slower, more difficult climb that could get bumpy along the way. For that reason, a number of strategists have been recommending investors steer clear of lower quality stocks and focus instead on those with better balance sheets for this next leg of the trip. In the week ahead, markets will be tested by a fresh batch of economic news and will be dominated by the debate over whether the dollar's behavior signals the beginning of a turn for the greenback. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is in the spotlight Monday when he speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, and President Obama is expected to unveil a new plan to promote job creation Tuesday. Retail sales, international trade and weekly jobless claims are some of the important numbers to watch. The Treasury is auctioning $74 billion in 3-years, 10-years and 30-year bonds Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/us_news/34282463
Rally may have legs, but beware of Scrooge
(Reuters) - If the bulls have their way, Wall Street's rally will keep going next week on signs of stability in the labor market. But concerns about penny-pinching consumers during the holiday shopping season and the specter of higher interest rates may be a hurdle to jump.The Standard & Poor's 500 is up 63.5 percent from a 12-year closing low on March 9, while expectations of a significant sell-off before year-end have waned. Any dip is likely to be met with buyers eager to get into the market.Investors are optimistic that the U.S. economy is on the path to recovery, albeit a slow one, after Friday's data showed employers cut far fewer jobs than expected in November.Even so, worries that consumers will remain frugal during the holiday shopping season are keeping a lid on investors' enthusiasm. And after Friday's data showing the labor market picture improved in November, there's speculation that the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates sooner than previously expected.
http://mobile.reuters.com/mobile/m/FullArticle/p.rdt/CBUS/nbusinessNews_uUSTRE5B401N20091205
Monday, November 23, 2009
Thanksgiving Week Stuffed With Economic News
By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive Editor
Markets will take in a heavy helping of economic reports in the shortened Thanksgiving holiday week, but the main course remains the dollar. In the past week, the dollar gained some traction as stocks were mixed and Treasurys saw a rush of buyers. Commodities finished the week mostly higher. Economic headlines in the week ahead include important real estate data, durable goods, revisions to third quarter GDP and weekly jobless claims. There are also $119 billion in Treasury notes and billions more in bills up for auction in the first three days of the week. Markets are closed Thanksgiving and Friday is a shortened trading day.
In the past week, traders say comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Monday reaffirmed the view that the Fed sees a slow economic recovery and that it has no plans any time soon to reverse its current policies. That supports the view that risk assets, like stocks and commodities, can continue higher and the dollar should stay weak. Bernanke though, in an unusual move, also said the Fed is monitoring the dollar closely, and the greenback has showed signs of strengthening since then.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34068074
CNBC Executive Editor
Markets will take in a heavy helping of economic reports in the shortened Thanksgiving holiday week, but the main course remains the dollar. In the past week, the dollar gained some traction as stocks were mixed and Treasurys saw a rush of buyers. Commodities finished the week mostly higher. Economic headlines in the week ahead include important real estate data, durable goods, revisions to third quarter GDP and weekly jobless claims. There are also $119 billion in Treasury notes and billions more in bills up for auction in the first three days of the week. Markets are closed Thanksgiving and Friday is a shortened trading day.
In the past week, traders say comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Monday reaffirmed the view that the Fed sees a slow economic recovery and that it has no plans any time soon to reverse its current policies. That supports the view that risk assets, like stocks and commodities, can continue higher and the dollar should stay weak. Bernanke though, in an unusual move, also said the Fed is monitoring the dollar closely, and the greenback has showed signs of strengthening since then.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34068074
Monday, November 16, 2009
Week Ahead: Investors Go for Quality, Assess Recovery
By: Patti Domm
Executive Editor
The stock market could trend higher as investors rotate into higher quality names. The market will be challenged by plenty of economic news in the coming week, as investors look for signs the recovery is taking hold. The most important headlines come Monday, first when October retail sales are released, then later in the day when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to the Economic Club of New York. The dollar is also a key, and traders are watching the outcome of President Obama's trip to Asia and particularly his meetings in China early in the week.
A mall full of chain stores report third quarter earnings, so the approaching holiday shopping season will be an important focus. The S&P retail sector was one of the best performers in the past week, with the group gaining 3.3 percent. The Dow rose 2.5 percent to 10,270 for the week, giving it a 5.7 percent gain in the past two weeks. The S&P 500 jumped 24 points, or 2.3 percent to 1093. The best performing sector was materials, up 4.2 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33921058
Executive Editor
The stock market could trend higher as investors rotate into higher quality names. The market will be challenged by plenty of economic news in the coming week, as investors look for signs the recovery is taking hold. The most important headlines come Monday, first when October retail sales are released, then later in the day when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to the Economic Club of New York. The dollar is also a key, and traders are watching the outcome of President Obama's trip to Asia and particularly his meetings in China early in the week.
A mall full of chain stores report third quarter earnings, so the approaching holiday shopping season will be an important focus. The S&P retail sector was one of the best performers in the past week, with the group gaining 3.3 percent. The Dow rose 2.5 percent to 10,270 for the week, giving it a 5.7 percent gain in the past two weeks. The S&P 500 jumped 24 points, or 2.3 percent to 1093. The best performing sector was materials, up 4.2 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33921058
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Week Ahead: Stocks Search for Catalyst in Quiet Week
Stocks could side step temporarily as investors look for the next catalyst that will break the market out of its current range.
A last blast of third quarter earnings news is expected this week, including from consumer-driven companies like Disney DIS and major retailers, like Wal-MartWMT , Nordstrom JWNand Macy'sM . The economic calendar is relatively light, but a group of Fed speakers could get some attention. There is also $81 billion in Treasury note auctions scheduled in a holiday-shortened week for the bond market.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33741038&all=1
A last blast of third quarter earnings news is expected this week, including from consumer-driven companies like Disney DIS and major retailers, like Wal-MartWMT , Nordstrom JWNand Macy'sM . The economic calendar is relatively light, but a group of Fed speakers could get some attention. There is also $81 billion in Treasury note auctions scheduled in a holiday-shortened week for the bond market.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33741038&all=1
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Week Ahead: Volatility, the Fed and Plenty of Economic Data
CNBC.COM
Brace for more volatility in the week ahead as investors wrestle with dual concerns that stocks have gotten too pricey and that the economic recovery is just too uncertain. Stocks start November on wobbly footing, after the past week's selling helped erase October's gains and pushed the S&P 500 to its first monthly loss since March.
The Dow fell 2.6 percent for the week, finishing at 9712 but it was a half percent higher in October. The S&P 500, at 1036, was down nearly 2 percent for the week and 4 percent for the month, ending a run of 7 monthly gains.
Fresh manufacturing data Monday and the key October jobs report Friday are critical pieces of data for markets puzzling over the shape of the economic recovery. The dollar will continue to play a central role. The Fed's meeting mid week has taken on even more importance because of speculation members may want to signal they are looking ahead to higher interest rates. Many Fed watchers, however, do not believe the Fed will take any action or change language in its statement about interest rates until early next year.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33557726&all=1
Brace for more volatility in the week ahead as investors wrestle with dual concerns that stocks have gotten too pricey and that the economic recovery is just too uncertain. Stocks start November on wobbly footing, after the past week's selling helped erase October's gains and pushed the S&P 500 to its first monthly loss since March.
The Dow fell 2.6 percent for the week, finishing at 9712 but it was a half percent higher in October. The S&P 500, at 1036, was down nearly 2 percent for the week and 4 percent for the month, ending a run of 7 monthly gains.
Fresh manufacturing data Monday and the key October jobs report Friday are critical pieces of data for markets puzzling over the shape of the economic recovery. The dollar will continue to play a central role. The Fed's meeting mid week has taken on even more importance because of speculation members may want to signal they are looking ahead to higher interest rates. Many Fed watchers, however, do not believe the Fed will take any action or change language in its statement about interest rates until early next year.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33557726&all=1
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Weekahead: Stocks Could Struggle Amid 'Buyer's Fatigue'
CNBC.COM
Stocks could struggle in the week ahead as the market's 7-month rally shows signs of tiring. There is another barrage of third quarter earnings reports, including names like ExxonMobil, Procter and Gamble, Aetna and Verizon .
But investor focus should shift to economic news with the first look Thursday at third quarter GDP. The number is significant in that it should mark the end of the recession with the first quarter of growth since second quarter, 2008.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33455514&all=1
Stocks could struggle in the week ahead as the market's 7-month rally shows signs of tiring. There is another barrage of third quarter earnings reports, including names like ExxonMobil, Procter and Gamble, Aetna and Verizon .
But investor focus should shift to economic news with the first look Thursday at third quarter GDP. The number is significant in that it should mark the end of the recession with the first quarter of growth since second quarter, 2008.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33455514&all=1
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Week Ahead: Earnings Could Keep the Bulls Running
Corporate earnings will trump almost everything for the stock market in the coming week.
A string of better-than-expected third quarter earnings reports have helped fuel the stock market rally, taking the Dow above 10,000 for the first time in a year. But on Friday, disappointing results from General Electric [GE 16.08  -0.71 (-4.23%)]and Bank of America drove stocks lower, showing how sensitive the market is to earnings news.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33351707&all=1
A string of better-than-expected third quarter earnings reports have helped fuel the stock market rally, taking the Dow above 10,000 for the first time in a year. But on Friday, disappointing results from General Electric [GE 16.08  -0.71 (-4.23%)]and Bank of America drove stocks lower, showing how sensitive the market is to earnings news.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33351707&all=1
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Weekeahead: U.S. stocks look to bottom lines to keep on top
(MarketWatch) -- The U.S. stock market is depending on third-quarter corporate results to do the heavy lifting in the coming week, with investors looking for proof of a recovery priced into U.S. equities' rapid climb. A slew of heavyweights in the banking, consumer and tech sectors will report quarterly earnings, including Intel Corp. (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Google, Inc. (GOOG), Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and General Electric Co. (GE).
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/41be850f-4e5e-4f08-ad71-ca625d892baa/0
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/next-weeks-top-11-earnings-intc-jnj-abt-jpm-c-gs-goog-ibm-bac-ge-hal-2009-10-09
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/41be850f-4e5e-4f08-ad71-ca625d892baa/0
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/next-weeks-top-11-earnings-intc-jnj-abt-jpm-c-gs-goog-ibm-bac-ge-hal-2009-10-09
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Week Ahead: US Stocks Need Boost From Earnings to Keep Rally Going
CNBC.COM | October 02, 2009 | 6:52 PM EDT
Uneven economic news is spooking stocks this October, but third quarter earnings could be one factor that helps keep the market's 7-month rally intact. Expect the going to be choppy though. October markets are always haunted by a volatile past, and this market is showing it is sensitive to a string of weaker than expected economic data, including Friday's September jobs report. Mostly, Octobers are not terrible, but some of the worst crashes have happened in October. Historically, Octobers have been positive about two-thirds of the time when they follow a positive September.
In the week ahead, there is little economic data, so commentary from companies ahead of third quarter earnings reports will carry extra weight. Alcoa [AA 12.82  -0.10 (-0.77%)]releases its earnings Wednesday after the bell, kicking off third quarter reporting season, but the big rush of quarterly reports does not start until the following week. Important also will be chain stores' September sales reports on Thursday.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33146351
Uneven economic news is spooking stocks this October, but third quarter earnings could be one factor that helps keep the market's 7-month rally intact. Expect the going to be choppy though. October markets are always haunted by a volatile past, and this market is showing it is sensitive to a string of weaker than expected economic data, including Friday's September jobs report. Mostly, Octobers are not terrible, but some of the worst crashes have happened in October. Historically, Octobers have been positive about two-thirds of the time when they follow a positive September.
In the week ahead, there is little economic data, so commentary from companies ahead of third quarter earnings reports will carry extra weight. Alcoa [AA 12.82  -0.10 (-0.77%)]releases its earnings Wednesday after the bell, kicking off third quarter reporting season, but the big rush of quarterly reports does not start until the following week. Important also will be chain stores' September sales reports on Thursday.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33146351
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Stocks turn to jobs woes, as new quarter starts
(MarketWatch) -- The stock market will start the coming week on edge about news from the job market, as investors turn to a new month and a new quarter seeking clues to whether the huge rally in stocks has gotten ahead of itself.A pull-back over the past week may have heightened some of those concerns, although stocks analysts are quick to point that most of the market's pull-backs have been pretty shallow and short-lived.
"A lot of people have been expecting that correction but the market just keeps on springing forward," says Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) fell 42 points, or 0.4%, to 9,665. The S&P 500 index ($SPX) fell 6 points, or 0.6%, to 1,044, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 16 points, or 0.8%, to 2,090.
A mixed batch of U.S. economic reports also weighed on Friday. Data on new-home sales and durable goods orders were weaker than expected, even as a gauge of consumer sentiment rose more than initially reported in September.
Check out the entire link below:
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/7a00c2de-3bc0-4bf3-9238-a97612866be4/0
"A lot of people have been expecting that correction but the market just keeps on springing forward," says Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) fell 42 points, or 0.4%, to 9,665. The S&P 500 index ($SPX) fell 6 points, or 0.6%, to 1,044, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 16 points, or 0.8%, to 2,090.
A mixed batch of U.S. economic reports also weighed on Friday. Data on new-home sales and durable goods orders were weaker than expected, even as a gauge of consumer sentiment rose more than initially reported in September.
Check out the entire link below:
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/7a00c2de-3bc0-4bf3-9238-a97612866be4/0
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Week Ahead: Stock Market Still Trending Higher
The trend for stocks continues to point up and could stay that way through the end of September, even if there are some choppy days.
Increasingly, traders have put aside talk of an imminent pull back and talk more about how fund mangers, who may have been underweight, are being forced to add to positions going into the end of the quarter. That, combined with a lack of selling pressure, has been keeping the stock market buoyant.
Many funds are benchmarked against the S&P 500, which is up more than 16 percent quarter-to-date.In the week ahead, investors are watching the Fed's two-day meeting; fresh housing data, and the Treasury's auction of more than $200 billion in notes and bills. There will also be a lot of focus on the activity of world leaders, who meet first in New York for the UN General Assembly, then at the G-20 in Pittsburgh. President Obama meets Tuesday with China President Hu Jintao, and also with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Japan's new Prime Minister Yikio Hatoyama during the General Assembly.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=32920496&all=1
Increasingly, traders have put aside talk of an imminent pull back and talk more about how fund mangers, who may have been underweight, are being forced to add to positions going into the end of the quarter. That, combined with a lack of selling pressure, has been keeping the stock market buoyant.
Many funds are benchmarked against the S&P 500, which is up more than 16 percent quarter-to-date.In the week ahead, investors are watching the Fed's two-day meeting; fresh housing data, and the Treasury's auction of more than $200 billion in notes and bills. There will also be a lot of focus on the activity of world leaders, who meet first in New York for the UN General Assembly, then at the G-20 in Pittsburgh. President Obama meets Tuesday with China President Hu Jintao, and also with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Japan's new Prime Minister Yikio Hatoyama during the General Assembly.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=32920496&all=1
Saturday, September 12, 2009
US Stocks Get Retail, Inflation Data Next Week
(MarketWatch) -- As U.S. stocks seemingly continue their steady upward course, investors will next week turn to more economic data, including key readings on retail sales and inflation, and try to fine-tune expectations about the shape of the economic recovery.
"The market continues to look pretty good," said Ken Tower, market strategist at Quantitative Analysis Services. In spite of a slump on Friday, stocks rose strongly over the past week, and remain on firm footing so far in September, which historically has not been a good month for stocks.
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/Story/4d7b15c2-e079-46bf-a454-e3adfa9aecd5
U.S. Housing, EU Unemployment, Next Results: Europe Week Ahead
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ag3ZMcBpC.tk
Clunkers’ Probably Boosted Retail Sales: U.S. Economy Preview
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2065100&sid=aPjsMz.iocrQ
"The market continues to look pretty good," said Ken Tower, market strategist at Quantitative Analysis Services. In spite of a slump on Friday, stocks rose strongly over the past week, and remain on firm footing so far in September, which historically has not been a good month for stocks.
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/Story/4d7b15c2-e079-46bf-a454-e3adfa9aecd5
U.S. Housing, EU Unemployment, Next Results: Europe Week Ahead
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ag3ZMcBpC.tk
Clunkers’ Probably Boosted Retail Sales: U.S. Economy Preview
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2065100&sid=aPjsMz.iocrQ
Monday, September 7, 2009
GLOBAL MARKETS WEEKAHEAD-Policy promise key for risk rally
Wall Street's mettle will be tested next week as traders return from summer to resurfacing signs of weakness after a six-month rally for stocks. Markets closed the first week of the month with the worst weekly performance since early July, though the bulk of losses were recouped Friday as investors deemed the monthly employment report to be less dire than expected. September has historically been one of the nastiest months of the year, a notoriety solidified last year by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the takeover of Merrill Lynch and the bailout of American International Group. Increased volume this week has investors keen to see what direction the market will take after the Labor Day holiday. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday.
Investors may take heart next week from policymaker pledges to keep easier monetary policy for the time being just as world stocks, testing the sustainability of the 2009 risk rally, face their first weekly loss since July. The outcome of the meeting of G20 finance chiefs in London, a gathering of G10 central bankers in Basel and central bank policy verdicts from Britain, New Zealand and Canada might highlight tensions between countries wanting exit strategies and others warning against them. The rally in world stocks, measured by MSCI, is hitting speed bumps after they touched a 10-month high last week and the benchmark index is on track to post a weekly loss -- only its fifth since March. According to EPFR Global, investors pulled $4.95 billion out of global equity funds in the week ending September 2 and committed $5.06 billion to fixed income funds. "Global equity valuations are not yet stretched, but no longer offer the extreme valuation opportunity that was presented earlier this year," said Tristan Hanson, manager of asset allocation and strategy at Ashburton. Ashburton has just reduced equity weighting to 30 percent from 45 percent. "There will be less downside risk in the event of an equity market correction, something we view as more likely today than a month ago. The possibility of a correction should not be surprising as equity markets have just provided three years worth of returns, or 20 per cent, since the July lows," he said. "The 12 month outlook for global equities is still positive in our view, and there is scope for a significant improvement in corporate profitability...
When we believe another compelling opportunity has arisen to increase equity weightings once again, we will act accordingly." According to Standard & Poor's, all 46 equity markets it tracks have posted gains since January, with 14 markets up at least 50 percent and another 22 markets up more than 25 percent. "On the activity front, the emerging policy view is that the worst is over... But on prospects for recovery, the overriding fear is that it will be weak," Philip Poole, head of emerging market research at HSBC, said in a note to clients. "This combination suggests that central banks in most parts of the world will be in no hurry to withdraw the liquidity that has fed through so powerfully into risk assets, including emerging market assets and currencies, since the Q1 trough."
The debate on exit strategy and the need to support the recovery is high on the agenda of a two-day G20 finance meeting which ends on Saturday and a gathering of G10 central bank governors on Sunday and Monday in the Swiss city of Basel. Sources have told Reuters the G20's communique, due on Saturday, will likely maintain the pledge to keep policy accommodative for as long as was needed. None of the central banks in Britain, New Zealand and Canada is expected to change their monetary policy. Investors are braced for warnings from these central banks against discounting for imminent rises in interest rates following surprisingly dovish comments from their counterparts in Australia and Sweden earlier this week. SUSTAINABILITY TEST Concerns about how sustainable this year's rally is are similar to early 2002, according to Goldman Sachs, when an inventory-driven rebound and a sharp market rally after 9/11 gave way to a softer growth profile and a renewed market decline.
However, the U.S. bank warns it is too early to conclude that momentum is fading. For example, a valuation picture is better now than 2002, when the market suffered from a serious valuation overhang. Cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratios for the S&P 500 index stands at 17 now, compared with 30 in early 2002. "While we agree that sustainability of recovery will be a key theme for the remainder of the year, we think the latest worries are likely (again) to prove premature," the bank said in a note to clients. Goldman has upgraded the year-end forecast for DJ Stoxx 600 to 260 from 235. Its 12-month target for the index is 275.
Investors may take heart next week from policymaker pledges to keep easier monetary policy for the time being just as world stocks, testing the sustainability of the 2009 risk rally, face their first weekly loss since July. The outcome of the meeting of G20 finance chiefs in London, a gathering of G10 central bankers in Basel and central bank policy verdicts from Britain, New Zealand and Canada might highlight tensions between countries wanting exit strategies and others warning against them. The rally in world stocks, measured by MSCI, is hitting speed bumps after they touched a 10-month high last week and the benchmark index is on track to post a weekly loss -- only its fifth since March. According to EPFR Global, investors pulled $4.95 billion out of global equity funds in the week ending September 2 and committed $5.06 billion to fixed income funds. "Global equity valuations are not yet stretched, but no longer offer the extreme valuation opportunity that was presented earlier this year," said Tristan Hanson, manager of asset allocation and strategy at Ashburton. Ashburton has just reduced equity weighting to 30 percent from 45 percent. "There will be less downside risk in the event of an equity market correction, something we view as more likely today than a month ago. The possibility of a correction should not be surprising as equity markets have just provided three years worth of returns, or 20 per cent, since the July lows," he said. "The 12 month outlook for global equities is still positive in our view, and there is scope for a significant improvement in corporate profitability...
When we believe another compelling opportunity has arisen to increase equity weightings once again, we will act accordingly." According to Standard & Poor's, all 46 equity markets it tracks have posted gains since January, with 14 markets up at least 50 percent and another 22 markets up more than 25 percent. "On the activity front, the emerging policy view is that the worst is over... But on prospects for recovery, the overriding fear is that it will be weak," Philip Poole, head of emerging market research at HSBC, said in a note to clients. "This combination suggests that central banks in most parts of the world will be in no hurry to withdraw the liquidity that has fed through so powerfully into risk assets, including emerging market assets and currencies, since the Q1 trough."
The debate on exit strategy and the need to support the recovery is high on the agenda of a two-day G20 finance meeting which ends on Saturday and a gathering of G10 central bank governors on Sunday and Monday in the Swiss city of Basel. Sources have told Reuters the G20's communique, due on Saturday, will likely maintain the pledge to keep policy accommodative for as long as was needed. None of the central banks in Britain, New Zealand and Canada is expected to change their monetary policy. Investors are braced for warnings from these central banks against discounting for imminent rises in interest rates following surprisingly dovish comments from their counterparts in Australia and Sweden earlier this week. SUSTAINABILITY TEST Concerns about how sustainable this year's rally is are similar to early 2002, according to Goldman Sachs, when an inventory-driven rebound and a sharp market rally after 9/11 gave way to a softer growth profile and a renewed market decline.
However, the U.S. bank warns it is too early to conclude that momentum is fading. For example, a valuation picture is better now than 2002, when the market suffered from a serious valuation overhang. Cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratios for the S&P 500 index stands at 17 now, compared with 30 in early 2002. "While we agree that sustainability of recovery will be a key theme for the remainder of the year, we think the latest worries are likely (again) to prove premature," the bank said in a note to clients. Goldman has upgraded the year-end forecast for DJ Stoxx 600 to 260 from 235. Its 12-month target for the index is 275.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Week Ahead: Is the Sun Setting on the Market Rally?
CNBC.COM |
The twilight week of summer could provide some new clues about the strength of the stock market's rally after Labor Day.Ask any trader, and the conventional wisdom you hear will be to expect a quiet week, but watch out after Labor Day when Wall Street gets back to work. Still, there's a heavy calendar of important economic data this week that will show more detail about the strength of the economic recovery.
The Dow in the past week rose just 0.4 percent to 9544, its sixth gain in seven weeks. The Dow is now up 4.1 percent for the month, so far its best August in nine years. The S&P 500 was up just 0.2 percent for the week to 1028, and is on track for a 4.2 percent monthly gain, also the best August since 2000. The dollar was fractionally higher on the week against a basket of currencies. It was down 0.3 percent against the euro, at $1.4302. Treasurys held their ground, and commodities were mostly higher
"In the next two weeks, things are going to change for stocks and bonds rather dramatically, and one of those has it wrong," said David Ader, head of Treasury strategy at CRT Capital. "It's the data we're going to get in the next couple of weeksthis second set of third quarter data that is going to start showing how things are going one way or the other."
There is little corporate earnings news to propel stocks, and the markets will focus instead on the stream of manufacturing, jobs and other data.
Citigroup chief U.S. equities strategist Tobias Levkovich is one of those expecting stocks to pull back in the fall. His year end target for the S&P is 1000, slightly below the current level.
One reason he expects a sell off is that investors will begin to look ahead to the next year, and as of now, earnings estimates for 2010 are too high. Levkovich expects bottom up earnings for the S&P 500 to increase 13.3 percent over 2009, but the street consensus is nearly double that level.
Traders also say the large amount of cash that has stayed out of the market could act as a cushion against losses, as fund managers take advantage of dips to put money into stocks. "Consensus is that we're not going to get any more money into the market until the market pulls back," said Art Hogan of Jefferies. "Everybody we talk to is of the same mind set. Typically when that happens, you don't get the pull back."
"One thing about next week is people are going to make excuses about prices, no matter what happens, and blame it on volume," said Pimco market strategist Tony Crescenzi. Stocks have rallied on low volume, a concern for analysts who say the market's move lacks conviction. "Prices always find equilibrium. I don't buy the volume idea," he said.
However, traders have been concerned that on several days in the past week, market volume was dominated by heavy trading in low quality financial names, like Fannie Mae [FNM 2.04  +0.12 (+6.25%)] , Citigroup [C 5.23  +0.18 (+3.56%)] , AIG [AIG 50.23  +2.39 (+5.00%)]and Freddie Mac [FRE 2.40  +0.16 (+7.14%)] .
Econorama
As the debate rages about whether the stock market is topping out, there is the parallel debate about the shape of the economic recovery. Economists mostly expect the third quarter to show positive growth, driven by a pickup in production as industry looks to rebuild inventories.
The view that this activity will lead to broader recovery has helped drive stocks higher, giving the S&P 500 a more 50 percent plus gain since early March. But now a common view is that some of those gains will evaporate because the recovery is not keeping up with the stock market. There is also concern that the economy could double dip.
Jobs are one of the most important data points to watch. Although employment is a lagging indicator, the declines need to subside before the economy can recover. Weekly unemployment claims have stalled out recently in terms of showing improvement, signaling some analysts that the recovery could be slower than they expected. "The claims level suggests losses of over 300,000," in non-farm payrolls, said Crescenzi. Consensus is that 230,000 jobs were lost in August.
ISM is also important this week. It is expected to rise above 50, signaling a growing economy for the first time in months. In the coming week, Chicago purchasing managers data is reported Monday. ISM manufacturing is Tuesday, as are pending home sales, construction spending, auto sales, and the Fed's minutes. On Wednesday, ADP's employment report, productivity and costs and factory orders are reported. Weekly jobless claims and ISM non-manufacturing are released Thursday, and Friday is all about August's employment report. Investors will also be watching the G-20 finance ministers as they gather Friday in London, ahead of the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh later in the month.
Oil Drill
Oil was up 1.6 percent for the week at $72.74 per barrel. The October natural gas contract fell 6 percent for the week to $3.033 per million BTUs.
I think we're poised to break out," said M.F. Global senior vice president John Kilduff. "I think oil's run at $75 last week was a probe at what's going to be a new higher range for prices. What will help that will be continued weakness of the dollar. Even if we get just an okay reading on the unemployment numbers on Friday, that could be enough to propel this higher."
Kilduff said natural gas, which recovered some of its losses in the past week, should remain under pressure because of the supply dynamics
Gold gained $3.80 per troy ounce for the week, ending at $957.
The twilight week of summer could provide some new clues about the strength of the stock market's rally after Labor Day.Ask any trader, and the conventional wisdom you hear will be to expect a quiet week, but watch out after Labor Day when Wall Street gets back to work. Still, there's a heavy calendar of important economic data this week that will show more detail about the strength of the economic recovery.
The Dow in the past week rose just 0.4 percent to 9544, its sixth gain in seven weeks. The Dow is now up 4.1 percent for the month, so far its best August in nine years. The S&P 500 was up just 0.2 percent for the week to 1028, and is on track for a 4.2 percent monthly gain, also the best August since 2000. The dollar was fractionally higher on the week against a basket of currencies. It was down 0.3 percent against the euro, at $1.4302. Treasurys held their ground, and commodities were mostly higher
"In the next two weeks, things are going to change for stocks and bonds rather dramatically, and one of those has it wrong," said David Ader, head of Treasury strategy at CRT Capital. "It's the data we're going to get in the next couple of weeksthis second set of third quarter data that is going to start showing how things are going one way or the other."
There is little corporate earnings news to propel stocks, and the markets will focus instead on the stream of manufacturing, jobs and other data.
Citigroup chief U.S. equities strategist Tobias Levkovich is one of those expecting stocks to pull back in the fall. His year end target for the S&P is 1000, slightly below the current level.
One reason he expects a sell off is that investors will begin to look ahead to the next year, and as of now, earnings estimates for 2010 are too high. Levkovich expects bottom up earnings for the S&P 500 to increase 13.3 percent over 2009, but the street consensus is nearly double that level.
Traders also say the large amount of cash that has stayed out of the market could act as a cushion against losses, as fund managers take advantage of dips to put money into stocks. "Consensus is that we're not going to get any more money into the market until the market pulls back," said Art Hogan of Jefferies. "Everybody we talk to is of the same mind set. Typically when that happens, you don't get the pull back."
"One thing about next week is people are going to make excuses about prices, no matter what happens, and blame it on volume," said Pimco market strategist Tony Crescenzi. Stocks have rallied on low volume, a concern for analysts who say the market's move lacks conviction. "Prices always find equilibrium. I don't buy the volume idea," he said.
However, traders have been concerned that on several days in the past week, market volume was dominated by heavy trading in low quality financial names, like Fannie Mae [FNM 2.04  +0.12 (+6.25%)] , Citigroup [C 5.23  +0.18 (+3.56%)] , AIG [AIG 50.23  +2.39 (+5.00%)]and Freddie Mac [FRE 2.40  +0.16 (+7.14%)] .
Econorama
As the debate rages about whether the stock market is topping out, there is the parallel debate about the shape of the economic recovery. Economists mostly expect the third quarter to show positive growth, driven by a pickup in production as industry looks to rebuild inventories.
The view that this activity will lead to broader recovery has helped drive stocks higher, giving the S&P 500 a more 50 percent plus gain since early March. But now a common view is that some of those gains will evaporate because the recovery is not keeping up with the stock market. There is also concern that the economy could double dip.
Jobs are one of the most important data points to watch. Although employment is a lagging indicator, the declines need to subside before the economy can recover. Weekly unemployment claims have stalled out recently in terms of showing improvement, signaling some analysts that the recovery could be slower than they expected. "The claims level suggests losses of over 300,000," in non-farm payrolls, said Crescenzi. Consensus is that 230,000 jobs were lost in August.
ISM is also important this week. It is expected to rise above 50, signaling a growing economy for the first time in months. In the coming week, Chicago purchasing managers data is reported Monday. ISM manufacturing is Tuesday, as are pending home sales, construction spending, auto sales, and the Fed's minutes. On Wednesday, ADP's employment report, productivity and costs and factory orders are reported. Weekly jobless claims and ISM non-manufacturing are released Thursday, and Friday is all about August's employment report. Investors will also be watching the G-20 finance ministers as they gather Friday in London, ahead of the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh later in the month.
Oil Drill
Oil was up 1.6 percent for the week at $72.74 per barrel. The October natural gas contract fell 6 percent for the week to $3.033 per million BTUs.
I think we're poised to break out," said M.F. Global senior vice president John Kilduff. "I think oil's run at $75 last week was a probe at what's going to be a new higher range for prices. What will help that will be continued weakness of the dollar. Even if we get just an okay reading on the unemployment numbers on Friday, that could be enough to propel this higher."
Kilduff said natural gas, which recovered some of its losses in the past week, should remain under pressure because of the supply dynamics
Gold gained $3.80 per troy ounce for the week, ending at $957.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Week Ahead: Stocks Riding Momentum Wave Higher
CNBC.COM |
Stocks could surf higher on a wave of late summer momentum in the week ahead though volume should be extremely light. With earnings season over, there is a series of economic data focused on housing, consumer sentiment and manufacturing in the coming week. Also of high interest will be the weekly jobless claims report Thursday, after the last two reports showed larger-than-expected numbers of new unemployment claims. The Treasury also auctions a near record $200 billion in notes and bills, and traders will be watching the energy markets where oil bubbled to its year high in the past week and natural gas slumped to a 7-year low.
Stocks this month have defied bears, who have been prowling for a pull back. The market gained about 2 percent in the past week, even with a bout of selling early in the week. The Dow finished at 9505, up 2 percent or 184 points, its highest close since Nov. 4. The S&P rose 22 or 2.2 percent to 1026, its highest close since Oct. 6.
"Everybody wants to go short because they think the market is so overbought, but they just can't because of the momentum," said one trader. Traders are now focused on September as a possible time for the market to give back some of its gains. They argue economic news is not that good, and historically, September is the worst month for stocks. "What I've learned is nobody knows what's going to happen in the next couple of weeks," said Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman and director of research at Ariel Investments.
Health care reform has been a red flag for traders, who believe if Congress makes progress toward a bill, it could hurt the stock market, and certainly the health care sector. As reform looked less likely in the past week, health care shares gained 2.9 percent and were the second best performers after energy, up 3.2 percent.
Therefore, the return of Congress in September is viewed as a potential negative catalyst. "There were certainly points in time...certainly earlier in the year, you see the pattern where you get a couple of weeks of policy action and the market would get troubled by it," said Barry Knapp, head of U.S. portfolio strategy at Barclays Capital. "Then Congress would go on break, and the markets would be relieved... That could be another minor negative as we're getting into September." Knapp said the economic data in the next week should continue to tell the same story of improvement in manufacturing and housing.
Credit Markets
Treasurys finished the week close to unchanged, despite some volatile trading. The 10-year was yielding 3.558 percent and the 2-year was at 1.081 percent. The big news for Treasurys in the coming week are the near record amount of issuance at auction.
I believe the market will back up into the auction," said John Spinello, Treasury strategist with Jefferies. There are $109 billion in 2-year, 5-year and 7-year notes auctioned Tuesday through Thursday and another $89 billion in T-bills. The Treasury market should stay under pressure. "I think the trend is in place for stocks, and I truly believe the trend is in place in bonds to lower prices and higher yields," said Spinello.
Dollar Dilemma
The dollar in the past week fell 1 percent against the euro to $1.4336 per euro [EUR= 1.4328 +0.0067 (+0.4698%)]. It was down 0.5 percent against the yen [JPY= 94.35 +0.22 (+0.2337%)].The "risk" trade, where traders buy commodities and stocks and sell the dollar, has flip flopped in the last couple of weeks. Early this week, stocks sold off on concerns that China's stock market decline meant its economy was slowing down.
Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex said he expects the dollar to stay under pressure for now. He said there are two trends in the market right now. "Are you a deflationist or inflationist? If you are in the inflationary camp, you buy the whole risk. If you're deflationist, you buy cash, U.S. dollars and Treasury notes...and you think interest rates are going to stay stationary for pretty much the whole year," said Schlossberg. Schlossberg said one of the themes developing has been improvement in Europe, but questions abound about China as its bank regulator tightens lending. "The fear is they'll be the one that pulls everyone back down into contraction," he said. He said a German survey, the IFO, in the coming week could be a catalyst to push the euro higher, toward its year-high of $1.444. "Generally when the markets get very close to those key numbers, any further gains are really going to be capped. I don't see a massive second wave of the risk rally going on," he said.
Oil Drill
OilUS@CL.1gushed to its year high this past week, finishing at $73.89 per barrel, up 6 .2 percent for the week. Natural gas, meanwhile, plunged 13 percent in the week to $2.80 per million BTUS, a 7-year low.
Ray Carbone of Paramount Options said the trend for oil remains higher and natural gas should stay under pressure. "I think we have a pretty healthy rise in the Dow today, and oil is chugging along as it has been since the financial crisis started. We follow the Dow and the Dow, or in the case of Wednesday, we lead the Dow. They're feeding off of each other," he said.
EconoramaThis week's data includes S&P/Case Shiller housing price survey Tuesday, as well as consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed survey that day. On Wednesday, durable goods and new home sales are reported. Thursday data includes weekly jobless claims, and 2nd look at second quarter GDP. Personal income and consumer sentiment are reported Friday.
Stocks could surf higher on a wave of late summer momentum in the week ahead though volume should be extremely light. With earnings season over, there is a series of economic data focused on housing, consumer sentiment and manufacturing in the coming week. Also of high interest will be the weekly jobless claims report Thursday, after the last two reports showed larger-than-expected numbers of new unemployment claims. The Treasury also auctions a near record $200 billion in notes and bills, and traders will be watching the energy markets where oil bubbled to its year high in the past week and natural gas slumped to a 7-year low.
Stocks this month have defied bears, who have been prowling for a pull back. The market gained about 2 percent in the past week, even with a bout of selling early in the week. The Dow finished at 9505, up 2 percent or 184 points, its highest close since Nov. 4. The S&P rose 22 or 2.2 percent to 1026, its highest close since Oct. 6.
"Everybody wants to go short because they think the market is so overbought, but they just can't because of the momentum," said one trader. Traders are now focused on September as a possible time for the market to give back some of its gains. They argue economic news is not that good, and historically, September is the worst month for stocks. "What I've learned is nobody knows what's going to happen in the next couple of weeks," said Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman and director of research at Ariel Investments.
Health care reform has been a red flag for traders, who believe if Congress makes progress toward a bill, it could hurt the stock market, and certainly the health care sector. As reform looked less likely in the past week, health care shares gained 2.9 percent and were the second best performers after energy, up 3.2 percent.
Therefore, the return of Congress in September is viewed as a potential negative catalyst. "There were certainly points in time...certainly earlier in the year, you see the pattern where you get a couple of weeks of policy action and the market would get troubled by it," said Barry Knapp, head of U.S. portfolio strategy at Barclays Capital. "Then Congress would go on break, and the markets would be relieved... That could be another minor negative as we're getting into September." Knapp said the economic data in the next week should continue to tell the same story of improvement in manufacturing and housing.
Credit Markets
Treasurys finished the week close to unchanged, despite some volatile trading. The 10-year was yielding 3.558 percent and the 2-year was at 1.081 percent. The big news for Treasurys in the coming week are the near record amount of issuance at auction.
I believe the market will back up into the auction," said John Spinello, Treasury strategist with Jefferies. There are $109 billion in 2-year, 5-year and 7-year notes auctioned Tuesday through Thursday and another $89 billion in T-bills. The Treasury market should stay under pressure. "I think the trend is in place for stocks, and I truly believe the trend is in place in bonds to lower prices and higher yields," said Spinello.
Dollar Dilemma
The dollar in the past week fell 1 percent against the euro to $1.4336 per euro [EUR= 1.4328 +0.0067 (+0.4698%)]. It was down 0.5 percent against the yen [JPY= 94.35 +0.22 (+0.2337%)].The "risk" trade, where traders buy commodities and stocks and sell the dollar, has flip flopped in the last couple of weeks. Early this week, stocks sold off on concerns that China's stock market decline meant its economy was slowing down.
Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex said he expects the dollar to stay under pressure for now. He said there are two trends in the market right now. "Are you a deflationist or inflationist? If you are in the inflationary camp, you buy the whole risk. If you're deflationist, you buy cash, U.S. dollars and Treasury notes...and you think interest rates are going to stay stationary for pretty much the whole year," said Schlossberg. Schlossberg said one of the themes developing has been improvement in Europe, but questions abound about China as its bank regulator tightens lending. "The fear is they'll be the one that pulls everyone back down into contraction," he said. He said a German survey, the IFO, in the coming week could be a catalyst to push the euro higher, toward its year-high of $1.444. "Generally when the markets get very close to those key numbers, any further gains are really going to be capped. I don't see a massive second wave of the risk rally going on," he said.
Oil Drill
OilUS@CL.1gushed to its year high this past week, finishing at $73.89 per barrel, up 6 .2 percent for the week. Natural gas, meanwhile, plunged 13 percent in the week to $2.80 per million BTUS, a 7-year low.
Ray Carbone of Paramount Options said the trend for oil remains higher and natural gas should stay under pressure. "I think we have a pretty healthy rise in the Dow today, and oil is chugging along as it has been since the financial crisis started. We follow the Dow and the Dow, or in the case of Wednesday, we lead the Dow. They're feeding off of each other," he said.
EconoramaThis week's data includes S&P/Case Shiller housing price survey Tuesday, as well as consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed survey that day. On Wednesday, durable goods and new home sales are reported. Thursday data includes weekly jobless claims, and 2nd look at second quarter GDP. Personal income and consumer sentiment are reported Friday.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
After impressive climb, U.S. stocks ready for an intermission
By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
(MarketWatch) - After a near six-month ascent, the U.S. stock market is more than likely headed for a pause as investors waited for signals to continue a rally that many now view as overdone in light of the still-shaky economy. "We've had a great run here, but here's five reasons to be concerned going into the fall," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist, Jefferies & Co.:
September is historically the worst month of the year.
The market has had a significant run up from its March 9 lows, up about 50%. "On valuation alone we may be getting ahead of ourselves," said Hogan. Insider selling. "The significant increase in insider selling activity suggests that in the eyes of corporate management valuations are becoming stretched at current levels," the analyst said.
Short interest is winding down. "The lack of meaningful short positions for the most economically sensitive sectors eliminates a source of market support that was significant during the most recent rally," said Hogan. The consumer in general. "Unemployment is rising, the value of consumers' home continues to be languishing, and the consumer seems to have become a saver. The de-leveraging of the U.S. consumer is going to be a long process," said Hogan. 'The de-leveraging of the U.S. consumer is going to be a long process.'Art Hogan, Jefferies & Co.
Illustrating that concern, the Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment released Friday fell to 63.2 in August from 66.0 in July. The drop was unexpected, with expectations calling instead for a rise to 68.5. Read Economic Report. The weak reading on consumer sentiment helped push stock indexes decisively lower on Friday, erasing weekly gains and halting a four-week winning streak.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) shed 76.79 points, or 0.8%, to finish the week at 9,321.4, leaving the blue chips down 0.5% for the week. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) declined 8.63 points, or 0.9%, to 1,004.1, a 0.6% decline from the prior week's close, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) dropped 23.83 points, or 1.2%, to end at 1,985.52, a weekly loss of 0.7%.
False starts
The week began showing a high degree of resiliency. "The market refused to be concerned about any bad news," said Richard Hughes, co-president, Portfolio Management Consultants. But by week's end, the concept that less bad is good news was losing steam, with investors left with the "big question of how is the consumer going to fuel economic growth and expansion. It caused the market to take a step back, and think about where sustained growth is going to come from," said Hughes.
The consumer sentiment gauge and other recent economic data bolster the Federal Reserve's stance that economic activity is leveling off, yet the numbers don't paint a "definitive" rebound, said David Kelly, chief market strategist, JPMorgan Funds. "I think the numbers indicated that people are generally optimistic but at the same time very cautious about their own spending habits," said Hughes.
One day ahead of the soft consumer sentiment reading, retail sales for July came in worse than expected, prompting more than a few analysts to question whether the V-shaped recovery was turning into a U. The economic reports highlighted "the weakness of the broad economy and the narrow positive impact of the Cash for Clunkers program," said TJ Marta of Marta on the Markets LLC.
Incoming
"The week ahead may also be inconclusive on the pace of the recovery," offered Kelly. Economic data slated for release on Tuesday include the producer price index and housing starts, while investors on Thursday will mull initial jobless claims figures and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Friday's schedule includes data on existing home sales. "Housing starts may have risen due to increased multi-family activity but there is a danger that single-family starts fell in July, following four months of increases," said Kelly.
"Initial unemployment claims should fall below 500,000 within the next few weeks, but there is no indication that this will happen this week," he added.
And, while more than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported results for the second quarter, a handful are still to come in the days ahead. On Monday, home-improvement retailer Lowe's Cos. (LOW) is expected to report its earnings, while discount retailer Target Corp. (TGT) and upscale retailer Saks Inc. (SKS) are slated to report on Tuesday. Barnes & Noble Inc. (BKS) and Sears Holding Corp. (SHLD) are among the companies slated to report earnings later in the week. "I am cautiously optimistic. At the end of the day, there has to be something that drives the top line of earnings growth, as companies are running out of ways to cut the bottom line," said Hughes.
(MarketWatch) - After a near six-month ascent, the U.S. stock market is more than likely headed for a pause as investors waited for signals to continue a rally that many now view as overdone in light of the still-shaky economy. "We've had a great run here, but here's five reasons to be concerned going into the fall," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist, Jefferies & Co.:
September is historically the worst month of the year.
The market has had a significant run up from its March 9 lows, up about 50%. "On valuation alone we may be getting ahead of ourselves," said Hogan. Insider selling. "The significant increase in insider selling activity suggests that in the eyes of corporate management valuations are becoming stretched at current levels," the analyst said.
Short interest is winding down. "The lack of meaningful short positions for the most economically sensitive sectors eliminates a source of market support that was significant during the most recent rally," said Hogan. The consumer in general. "Unemployment is rising, the value of consumers' home continues to be languishing, and the consumer seems to have become a saver. The de-leveraging of the U.S. consumer is going to be a long process," said Hogan. 'The de-leveraging of the U.S. consumer is going to be a long process.'Art Hogan, Jefferies & Co.
Illustrating that concern, the Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment released Friday fell to 63.2 in August from 66.0 in July. The drop was unexpected, with expectations calling instead for a rise to 68.5. Read Economic Report. The weak reading on consumer sentiment helped push stock indexes decisively lower on Friday, erasing weekly gains and halting a four-week winning streak.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) shed 76.79 points, or 0.8%, to finish the week at 9,321.4, leaving the blue chips down 0.5% for the week. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) declined 8.63 points, or 0.9%, to 1,004.1, a 0.6% decline from the prior week's close, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) dropped 23.83 points, or 1.2%, to end at 1,985.52, a weekly loss of 0.7%.
False starts
The week began showing a high degree of resiliency. "The market refused to be concerned about any bad news," said Richard Hughes, co-president, Portfolio Management Consultants. But by week's end, the concept that less bad is good news was losing steam, with investors left with the "big question of how is the consumer going to fuel economic growth and expansion. It caused the market to take a step back, and think about where sustained growth is going to come from," said Hughes.
The consumer sentiment gauge and other recent economic data bolster the Federal Reserve's stance that economic activity is leveling off, yet the numbers don't paint a "definitive" rebound, said David Kelly, chief market strategist, JPMorgan Funds. "I think the numbers indicated that people are generally optimistic but at the same time very cautious about their own spending habits," said Hughes.
One day ahead of the soft consumer sentiment reading, retail sales for July came in worse than expected, prompting more than a few analysts to question whether the V-shaped recovery was turning into a U. The economic reports highlighted "the weakness of the broad economy and the narrow positive impact of the Cash for Clunkers program," said TJ Marta of Marta on the Markets LLC.
Incoming
"The week ahead may also be inconclusive on the pace of the recovery," offered Kelly. Economic data slated for release on Tuesday include the producer price index and housing starts, while investors on Thursday will mull initial jobless claims figures and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Friday's schedule includes data on existing home sales. "Housing starts may have risen due to increased multi-family activity but there is a danger that single-family starts fell in July, following four months of increases," said Kelly.
"Initial unemployment claims should fall below 500,000 within the next few weeks, but there is no indication that this will happen this week," he added.
And, while more than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported results for the second quarter, a handful are still to come in the days ahead. On Monday, home-improvement retailer Lowe's Cos. (LOW) is expected to report its earnings, while discount retailer Target Corp. (TGT) and upscale retailer Saks Inc. (SKS) are slated to report on Tuesday. Barnes & Noble Inc. (BKS) and Sears Holding Corp. (SHLD) are among the companies slated to report earnings later in the week. "I am cautiously optimistic. At the end of the day, there has to be something that drives the top line of earnings growth, as companies are running out of ways to cut the bottom line," said Hughes.
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