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Friday, June 12, 2009
Oil to Fall More Than 30%, Bay Crest Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is set to drop more than 30 percent in the next three to five months, New York-based broker Bay Crest Partners LLC said, using Elliot Wave analysis. Crude’s 61 percent rally this year is a “corrective, counter-trend” movement that will dissipate before prices exceed $76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, Bay Crest said. Oil will slump to between $48 and $50 a barrel, and then potentially drop further to $25, the broker said.“This whole rally which people are taking as the start of a new bull run is just a corrective move that will fail between $72 and $76,” Bay Crest’s director of technical research Christian Bendixen said in an interview from New York. “We’re very confident we’ll sell off to at least $48 to $50.”
Bay Crest predicted on March 24 that crude would rise to a “$72 to $76 resistance area.” The $76 a barrel threshold is equal to 38.2 percent of the drop from $147.27 to oil’s four- year low of $32.40 on Dec. 19. The importance of the 38.2 percent level is based on the ratio, known as the golden mean, between numbers in the Fibonacci sequence.In Elliot Wave theory, prices follow either impulsive moves that describe an underlying trend, or corrective moves that work against it. Oil’s plunge from its record high of $147.27 a barrel last July to $32.40 in December was an impulsive move, and the subsequent recovery has been corrective, Bay Crest said.
Oil futures for July delivery rose to a seven-month high of $72.30 barrel in New York trading today.Once the corrective phase ends at $76, the impulsive move will resume and take prices towards $50 to $48, a “confluence of support” that includes a major low in 2007, Bendixen said.
‘Three Waves’
“Major corrections happen in three waves,” Bay Crest’s Bendixen added. “A sell-off to $48 opens the door to $25 by the end of this year or March 2010.” Oil is unlikely to fall below $25 a barrel as “there’s a massive area of long-term support at that level, which prevailed in the 1990s,” Bendixen said. Crude will begin a “new cyclical uptrend” once the move towards $25 has been completed, he said.The wave theory was developed in the 1930s by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott and used by former Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Robert Prechter in his recommendation to sell equities before the October 1987 crash.Elliot’s theories held that markets swings, or waves, follow a predictable structure. The pattern is determined by the collective psychology of the people buying and selling.
Bay Crest predicted on March 24 that crude would rise to a “$72 to $76 resistance area.” The $76 a barrel threshold is equal to 38.2 percent of the drop from $147.27 to oil’s four- year low of $32.40 on Dec. 19. The importance of the 38.2 percent level is based on the ratio, known as the golden mean, between numbers in the Fibonacci sequence.In Elliot Wave theory, prices follow either impulsive moves that describe an underlying trend, or corrective moves that work against it. Oil’s plunge from its record high of $147.27 a barrel last July to $32.40 in December was an impulsive move, and the subsequent recovery has been corrective, Bay Crest said.
Oil futures for July delivery rose to a seven-month high of $72.30 barrel in New York trading today.Once the corrective phase ends at $76, the impulsive move will resume and take prices towards $50 to $48, a “confluence of support” that includes a major low in 2007, Bendixen said.
‘Three Waves’
“Major corrections happen in three waves,” Bay Crest’s Bendixen added. “A sell-off to $48 opens the door to $25 by the end of this year or March 2010.” Oil is unlikely to fall below $25 a barrel as “there’s a massive area of long-term support at that level, which prevailed in the 1990s,” Bendixen said. Crude will begin a “new cyclical uptrend” once the move towards $25 has been completed, he said.The wave theory was developed in the 1930s by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott and used by former Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Robert Prechter in his recommendation to sell equities before the October 1987 crash.Elliot’s theories held that markets swings, or waves, follow a predictable structure. The pattern is determined by the collective psychology of the people buying and selling.
Oil & Stocks: When One Rises, The Other One Falls?
Crude oil is trading above $70 again. And if you've watched the markets for a while, you know that when oil starts to make big moves, hardly a day goes by without someone saying something like “crude up -- stocks down,” or vice versa. Except, sometimes commentators seem to forget which way stocks are "supposed to" move in relation to oil. Which can lead to headlines like these two, which ran recently, days apart, on the same news web site:
* Stocks Get Octane Boost From Oil -- Financials and oil futures and stocks helped the major indices add to the week's gains Thursday... (TheStreet.com, June 4)
* Stocks Slip as Oil Moves Up -- Stocks in New York slunk back after a positive open Wednesday, while crude oil continued higher... (TheStreet.com, June 10)
Despite an occasional disconnect like that, analysts keep driving home the notion that when oil rises, stocks fall. But even a cursory look at recent history proves this assumption wrong. Oil's last significant bottom came in 2002, near $20 a barrel. From that low, it zoomed upward to the all-time high of $147 in July 2008. The DJIA also made a low in late 2002 and zoomed upward too, right alongside the rising oil prices, to its all-time high in October 2007.
It's even more obvious when you plot this presumed relationship on a chart. Here's one our European Financial Forecast presented to subscribers in 2004, showing the lack of correlation between the German DAX stock index and the price of oil:
* Stocks Get Octane Boost From Oil -- Financials and oil futures and stocks helped the major indices add to the week's gains Thursday... (TheStreet.com, June 4)
* Stocks Slip as Oil Moves Up -- Stocks in New York slunk back after a positive open Wednesday, while crude oil continued higher... (TheStreet.com, June 10)
Despite an occasional disconnect like that, analysts keep driving home the notion that when oil rises, stocks fall. But even a cursory look at recent history proves this assumption wrong. Oil's last significant bottom came in 2002, near $20 a barrel. From that low, it zoomed upward to the all-time high of $147 in July 2008. The DJIA also made a low in late 2002 and zoomed upward too, right alongside the rising oil prices, to its all-time high in October 2007.
It's even more obvious when you plot this presumed relationship on a chart. Here's one our European Financial Forecast presented to subscribers in 2004, showing the lack of correlation between the German DAX stock index and the price of oil:
Elliot Wave: Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Selll at 1.0750; Trade Idea: GBP/JPY - Buy at 161.00
Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Selll at 1.0750
USD/CHF - 1.0705
Recent wave: Wave iii selloff from 1.1969 will resume
Trend : Down
Our trading strategy
Sell at 1.0750, Target:1.0620, Stop-loss:1.0800
Despite rebounding strongly from 1.0592 to 1.0987, the selloff from there due to renewed dollar's weakness across the board on recent better-than-expected U.S. auctions signals the correction has possibly ended and bearish bias is now seen for wave iii selloff from 1.1969 to resume to re-test the abovementioned temporary low.
Therefore, we suggest to sell USD/CHF on recovery towards 1.0752 (previous support, now resistace) in anticipation of weakness to 1.0620 where stop is placed at 1.0800. However, only a breach of 1.0860 will consolidate further inside the 395 points range of 1.0592-1.0987. On the upside, a rise above 1.0987 would bring stronger rebound to 1.1057/70 area, however, as long as 1.1158 (wave i bottom) holds, the decline from 1.2298 should resume in anticipation of the active cross buying in chf and bring further weakness to 1.0041 (equality projection of 1.2298-1.0370 measured from 1.1969). Having said that only a breach of 1.1266 (high of 18 May 2009) would alter recent bearish count on the greenback.
To re-cap the erratic selloff from 1.2298 (21 Nov 2008) which is treated as wave 5 of V and is subdivided into wave i:1.2298-1.1158, wave ii:1.1969 and wave iii selloff from there has formed a temporary low at 1.0592 and consolidation would be seen until further weakness to 1.0501 (equality Fibonacci projection level of the intermediate fall from 1.1742-1.0977 measured from 1.1266) and then towards1.0430 (1.618 times Fibonacci projection level of 1.1969-1.1158 measured from 1.1742), however, 1.0370 (29 Dec 2008 low) is likely to hold on first testing in June and bring further choppy consolidation inside 1.0370-1.2298 broad range before a downside breakout of the established range takes place later in Q3.
Trade Idea: GBP/JPY - Buy at 161.00
GBP/JPY - 161.80
Recent wave: Wave 4 rise from 112.08 low (21 Jan 2009) has resumed after the breach of 160.47
Trend : Up
Our trading strategy
Buy at 161.00, Target:162.50, Stop-loss:160.40
The British pound continued to move higher against the Japanese yen without any significant pullback due to the rally in cable (GBP/USD rises to as high as 1.6622, just below recent top at 1.6664). The breach of 160.47 confirms correction was short-lived and ended at 154.91 on Monday, and signals wave 4 from 118.87 (23 Jan 2009) to retrace in intermediate decline from 215.89 has once again resumed and will extend gain to 162.50/60, however, upside will be limited and price shall be capped well below 165.06/166.05 area and bring wave 5 selloff later in Q4. Therefore, we are recommending to buy sterling on pullback for further rise to 162.50 with stop below 160.47 (previous resistance, now support), break will signal temporary top is made and choppy trading will be seen, and thus, weakness to near term support 159.82 may follow, however, 158.45 shall contain pullback this week.
To re-cap the 5-wavers selloff 251.12 (20 Jul 2007), wave 1 is labelled as 251.12-192.60, the rebound from there to 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) is seen as wave 2, and we are tentatively treating wave 3 has ended 118.87 (23 Jan 2009) and the erratic rise from there is marked as wave 4. On the downside, only a breach of 143.11 (18 May 2009) will violate the series of highers highs and higher lows from 118.87 and signal wave 4 is over.
USD/CHF - 1.0705
Recent wave: Wave iii selloff from 1.1969 will resume
Trend : Down
Our trading strategy
Sell at 1.0750, Target:1.0620, Stop-loss:1.0800
Despite rebounding strongly from 1.0592 to 1.0987, the selloff from there due to renewed dollar's weakness across the board on recent better-than-expected U.S. auctions signals the correction has possibly ended and bearish bias is now seen for wave iii selloff from 1.1969 to resume to re-test the abovementioned temporary low.
Therefore, we suggest to sell USD/CHF on recovery towards 1.0752 (previous support, now resistace) in anticipation of weakness to 1.0620 where stop is placed at 1.0800. However, only a breach of 1.0860 will consolidate further inside the 395 points range of 1.0592-1.0987. On the upside, a rise above 1.0987 would bring stronger rebound to 1.1057/70 area, however, as long as 1.1158 (wave i bottom) holds, the decline from 1.2298 should resume in anticipation of the active cross buying in chf and bring further weakness to 1.0041 (equality projection of 1.2298-1.0370 measured from 1.1969). Having said that only a breach of 1.1266 (high of 18 May 2009) would alter recent bearish count on the greenback.
To re-cap the erratic selloff from 1.2298 (21 Nov 2008) which is treated as wave 5 of V and is subdivided into wave i:1.2298-1.1158, wave ii:1.1969 and wave iii selloff from there has formed a temporary low at 1.0592 and consolidation would be seen until further weakness to 1.0501 (equality Fibonacci projection level of the intermediate fall from 1.1742-1.0977 measured from 1.1266) and then towards1.0430 (1.618 times Fibonacci projection level of 1.1969-1.1158 measured from 1.1742), however, 1.0370 (29 Dec 2008 low) is likely to hold on first testing in June and bring further choppy consolidation inside 1.0370-1.2298 broad range before a downside breakout of the established range takes place later in Q3.
Trade Idea: GBP/JPY - Buy at 161.00
GBP/JPY - 161.80
Recent wave: Wave 4 rise from 112.08 low (21 Jan 2009) has resumed after the breach of 160.47
Trend : Up
Our trading strategy
Buy at 161.00, Target:162.50, Stop-loss:160.40
The British pound continued to move higher against the Japanese yen without any significant pullback due to the rally in cable (GBP/USD rises to as high as 1.6622, just below recent top at 1.6664). The breach of 160.47 confirms correction was short-lived and ended at 154.91 on Monday, and signals wave 4 from 118.87 (23 Jan 2009) to retrace in intermediate decline from 215.89 has once again resumed and will extend gain to 162.50/60, however, upside will be limited and price shall be capped well below 165.06/166.05 area and bring wave 5 selloff later in Q4. Therefore, we are recommending to buy sterling on pullback for further rise to 162.50 with stop below 160.47 (previous resistance, now support), break will signal temporary top is made and choppy trading will be seen, and thus, weakness to near term support 159.82 may follow, however, 158.45 shall contain pullback this week.
To re-cap the 5-wavers selloff 251.12 (20 Jul 2007), wave 1 is labelled as 251.12-192.60, the rebound from there to 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) is seen as wave 2, and we are tentatively treating wave 3 has ended 118.87 (23 Jan 2009) and the erratic rise from there is marked as wave 4. On the downside, only a breach of 143.11 (18 May 2009) will violate the series of highers highs and higher lows from 118.87 and signal wave 4 is over.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex & DJIA
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Slow work as we consolidate above retracement support and yesterday's close above the 9-day moving average might increase bullish pressure. A weekly close above 1.4200 will probably lead to another serious round of short-covering. Strategy: Buy at 1.4075, adding to 1.3945; stop well below 1.3900. Short term target 1.4150, then 1.4250 and this month's high at 1.4339.Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4068 " 1.4145
1.3943 1.4178*
1.3839 1.42
1.3800* 1.425
1.3725 1.4339*
GBPUSD
Comment: Cable is just a hair's breath off this month's high at 1.6664, having retraced 38% of the massive declines of 2008. A weekly close above 1.6500 should keep bullish momentum close to a record high forcing many long term investors to re-think core positioning. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.6560, adding to 1.6400; stop well below 1.6200. First target 1.6650 then 1.6800. Direction of Trade: →↗
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6519 " 1.6622
1.638 1.6664*
1.6295 1.6695**
1.62 1.68
1.6 1.69
USDJPY
Comment: Still trading either side of a thinning Ichimoku 'cloud', above moving averages which have just crossed to bullish, having traded in a broad band roughly between 94.00 and 100.00 since March. Expect yet more cautious random small swings today. Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 98.00, adding to 98.45; stop above 99.25. First target 97.50 then 97.00. Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
97.47 " 98
97.25 98.45/98.58
97 98.7
96.65 98.85/99.00*
96.5 99.8
Mizuho Corporate Bank
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: -8724.32, 8673.70, 8634.17 and 8561.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8495.80, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44.Today's resistance: - 8786.30, 8808.80 and 8834.25(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8858.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8887.46, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8910.00. Continuation would bring 8927.28.
EURUSD
Comment: Slow work as we consolidate above retracement support and yesterday's close above the 9-day moving average might increase bullish pressure. A weekly close above 1.4200 will probably lead to another serious round of short-covering. Strategy: Buy at 1.4075, adding to 1.3945; stop well below 1.3900. Short term target 1.4150, then 1.4250 and this month's high at 1.4339.Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4068 " 1.4145
1.3943 1.4178*
1.3839 1.42
1.3800* 1.425
1.3725 1.4339*
GBPUSD
Comment: Cable is just a hair's breath off this month's high at 1.6664, having retraced 38% of the massive declines of 2008. A weekly close above 1.6500 should keep bullish momentum close to a record high forcing many long term investors to re-think core positioning. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.6560, adding to 1.6400; stop well below 1.6200. First target 1.6650 then 1.6800. Direction of Trade: →↗
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6519 " 1.6622
1.638 1.6664*
1.6295 1.6695**
1.62 1.68
1.6 1.69
USDJPY
Comment: Still trading either side of a thinning Ichimoku 'cloud', above moving averages which have just crossed to bullish, having traded in a broad band roughly between 94.00 and 100.00 since March. Expect yet more cautious random small swings today. Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 98.00, adding to 98.45; stop above 99.25. First target 97.50 then 97.00. Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
97.47 " 98
97.25 98.45/98.58
97 98.7
96.65 98.85/99.00*
96.5 99.8
Mizuho Corporate Bank
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: -8724.32, 8673.70, 8634.17 and 8561.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8495.80, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44.Today's resistance: - 8786.30, 8808.80 and 8834.25(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8858.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8887.46, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8910.00. Continuation would bring 8927.28.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
S&P 500 Stock Market Trends For June 2009
By Hans Wagner on June 11, 2009
Analyzing monthly stock market trends uses the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 939.15 0.00 0.00%) charts to indicate important trend lines. Trend following is a proven strategy to beat the market and grow your stock portfolio. Technical analysis provides the tools to analyze and identify trends in the stock market. Since the S&P 500 trend line chart is the one used by professional traders for their analysis, it is important to understand how it is performing. The analysis of the S&P 500 trend line starts with the 20-year monthly view of the S&P 500 chart. Next, we examine the weekly chart of the S&P 500 trends to get a shorter-term view. Finally, we analyze the one-year daily chart of the S&P 500 trends to get an even shorter-term view. On each version of the charts of the S&P 500 trend line, the view and the value of the indicators change, as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart.
Starting with the monthly view of the S&P 500 trend chart, the bull market of the last five years turned down, as the index fell below the 24-month exponential moving average. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is below 50, indicating a downtrend is in place. The Moving Average convergence Divergence (MACD) is also below zero, a sign stock market trend has reversed and we have entered a bear market. Finally, the Slow Stochastic fell through zero, another sign of a bear market.The analysis of the monthly trends of the S&P 500 chart shows we remain in a bear market with key resistance at the 24-month exponential moving average. In addition, support at the 25 year rising S&P 500 trend line has been tested and held, so far. However, the Slow Stochastic is testing the 20 level. If it is able to stay above 20, it is an early buy sign.
The daily S&P 500 is a bit complicated as several indicators say the market is overbought, yet the rally that began in early March continues. Resistance at the 940 level and the 200-day moving average is being tested. For the rally to keep going we need to see the S&P 500 close above these levels for several days in a row.Volume has been trailing off, which is not a good sign for the market to keep going up. Watch for above average buying volume as a sign the S&P 500 will continue it’s up trend. Otherwise, we should expect a pull back. RSI is above 50 indicating an up trend. The MACD is at a high point it turned down through the 9-day moving average, a sell signal. However, the recent turn up has negated the earlier sell signal. The Slow Stochastic is above 80 where it will turn down giving a sell sign. These are the signs that the market is overbought, yet it can continue to rise for a while.
The daily chart of the S&P 500 is showing we are at an important transition point. If the index can sustain the move up, it could be a sign the current rally will continue for several more weeks at least. On the other hand, if the S&P 500 turns down, we are likely to see a pull back that could test important support levels below.
Given this analysis of the S&P 500 trend line charts, it is important to have your portfolio positioned for a bear market rally that might rise to the 970 area. If the S&P 500 trend line can reach this level, it will be time to add further down side protection and/or reduce your long positions. A rally to this level over the next few weeks increases the risk of a down turn as we remain in an overall bear market.
The charts of the S&P 500 trend line provide a good way for investors to align their portfolios with the overall market trends. Bear market rallies offer investors a good time to buy stocks and ETFs in leading sectors. Look to buy on dips in the price of the S&P 500 trend charts during a bear market rally. Be sure to use proper capital management techniques including trailing stops, protective put and covered call options. Once the rally ends take profits and reduce your long positions. Keep in mind, Warren Buffett’s first rule of investing is to not loose money. Patience is key when markets are moving down.
Analyzing monthly stock market trends uses the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 939.15 0.00 0.00%) charts to indicate important trend lines. Trend following is a proven strategy to beat the market and grow your stock portfolio. Technical analysis provides the tools to analyze and identify trends in the stock market. Since the S&P 500 trend line chart is the one used by professional traders for their analysis, it is important to understand how it is performing. The analysis of the S&P 500 trend line starts with the 20-year monthly view of the S&P 500 chart. Next, we examine the weekly chart of the S&P 500 trends to get a shorter-term view. Finally, we analyze the one-year daily chart of the S&P 500 trends to get an even shorter-term view. On each version of the charts of the S&P 500 trend line, the view and the value of the indicators change, as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart.
Starting with the monthly view of the S&P 500 trend chart, the bull market of the last five years turned down, as the index fell below the 24-month exponential moving average. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is below 50, indicating a downtrend is in place. The Moving Average convergence Divergence (MACD) is also below zero, a sign stock market trend has reversed and we have entered a bear market. Finally, the Slow Stochastic fell through zero, another sign of a bear market.The analysis of the monthly trends of the S&P 500 chart shows we remain in a bear market with key resistance at the 24-month exponential moving average. In addition, support at the 25 year rising S&P 500 trend line has been tested and held, so far. However, the Slow Stochastic is testing the 20 level. If it is able to stay above 20, it is an early buy sign.
The daily S&P 500 is a bit complicated as several indicators say the market is overbought, yet the rally that began in early March continues. Resistance at the 940 level and the 200-day moving average is being tested. For the rally to keep going we need to see the S&P 500 close above these levels for several days in a row.Volume has been trailing off, which is not a good sign for the market to keep going up. Watch for above average buying volume as a sign the S&P 500 will continue it’s up trend. Otherwise, we should expect a pull back. RSI is above 50 indicating an up trend. The MACD is at a high point it turned down through the 9-day moving average, a sell signal. However, the recent turn up has negated the earlier sell signal. The Slow Stochastic is above 80 where it will turn down giving a sell sign. These are the signs that the market is overbought, yet it can continue to rise for a while.
The daily chart of the S&P 500 is showing we are at an important transition point. If the index can sustain the move up, it could be a sign the current rally will continue for several more weeks at least. On the other hand, if the S&P 500 turns down, we are likely to see a pull back that could test important support levels below.
Given this analysis of the S&P 500 trend line charts, it is important to have your portfolio positioned for a bear market rally that might rise to the 970 area. If the S&P 500 trend line can reach this level, it will be time to add further down side protection and/or reduce your long positions. A rally to this level over the next few weeks increases the risk of a down turn as we remain in an overall bear market.
The charts of the S&P 500 trend line provide a good way for investors to align their portfolios with the overall market trends. Bear market rallies offer investors a good time to buy stocks and ETFs in leading sectors. Look to buy on dips in the price of the S&P 500 trend charts during a bear market rally. Be sure to use proper capital management techniques including trailing stops, protective put and covered call options. Once the rally ends take profits and reduce your long positions. Keep in mind, Warren Buffett’s first rule of investing is to not loose money. Patience is key when markets are moving down.
World Stock Markets Gain $5 Trillion In May
By Mark Perry on June 11, 2009
As stock markets around the world gained ground last month, the total world stock market capitalization increased by almost $5 trillion in May, according to preliminary data released today by the World Federation of Exchanges. The May gain follows increases of $3.65 trillion in April and $1 trillion in March, and is the first time in almost two years of three consecutive monthly advances in world stock market value.
The cumulative three-month gain of $9.625 trillion in world stock market capitalization brings the value of world equities up to $38.39 trillion, the highest level since September 2008, and marks a 33.5% increase from the February bottom (see chart above). All 52 world stock markets reporting to the World Federation of Exchanges registered May increases in their domestic stock market capitalization, led by India with a whopping 44% increase.
As stock markets around the world gained ground last month, the total world stock market capitalization increased by almost $5 trillion in May, according to preliminary data released today by the World Federation of Exchanges. The May gain follows increases of $3.65 trillion in April and $1 trillion in March, and is the first time in almost two years of three consecutive monthly advances in world stock market value.
The cumulative three-month gain of $9.625 trillion in world stock market capitalization brings the value of world equities up to $38.39 trillion, the highest level since September 2008, and marks a 33.5% increase from the February bottom (see chart above). All 52 world stock markets reporting to the World Federation of Exchanges registered May increases in their domestic stock market capitalization, led by India with a whopping 44% increase.
Pound May Extend Rally on Moving Averages: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The pound may extend its advance against the dollar if two technical indicators called moving averages cross. The U.K. currency’s 50-day moving average, currently at $1.5288, compares with the 200-day moving average of $1.5384. When a shorter-dated moving average rises through a longer-dated one it may signal more gains are in store. For the pound, such a cross would be the first occasion in three years. A moving average is a technical indicator that displays the average value of a security over a period of time.“Trading accounts that rely on technical analysis models will get a strong buy signal when the two moving averages intersect,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales in London at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. “The pound will clearly get a boost when this happens.”
The pound was 0.1 percent higher at $1.6327 as of 4:36 p.m. in London. It will fall to $1.56 by year-end, according to the median forecast of 44 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News.The last time the pound’s 50-day moving average climbed through the 200-day measure was in May 2006, which marked the beginning of a 12 percent rally to $2.1161 in November 2007, the highest level in 26 years.In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
The pound was 0.1 percent higher at $1.6327 as of 4:36 p.m. in London. It will fall to $1.56 by year-end, according to the median forecast of 44 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg News.The last time the pound’s 50-day moving average climbed through the 200-day measure was in May 2006, which marked the beginning of a 12 percent rally to $2.1161 in November 2007, the highest level in 26 years.In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
Thai Stocks Set for ‘Big Correction’ on RSI: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s benchmark SET Index may tumble to 540 after rallying to a “key resistance” level, according to Chart Partners Co., a technical analysis consulting firm in Bangkok. The measure climbed to 624.55 yesterday, the highest since Sept. 19, pushing its 14-day relative strength index to 79.4, above the 70 reading that prompts some investors to sell. The gauge may rise to 640 this month before plunging, said Chart Partners Managing Director Thomas Schroeder, who correctly predicted on May 7 the index would breach 600 by July.“The RSI is pushing to 80, which indicates the market can correct any time,” Schroeder said by telephone today. “The SET Index will have a big correction in the third quarter when the market will probably see about 100 points off the index.”
Thai stocks have surged 39 percent this year, after slumping 48 percent in 2008, on the expectation easing political tension and economic stimulus packages will boost Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy. Overseas investors have this year bought a net 16.2 billion baht ($474 million) of Thai stocks through yesterday, compared with net sales of 162 billion baht in 2008, according to Bloomberg’s data. The likelihood of a reversal in the rally is underscored by a divergence, in which the relative strength index has declined from a 15-year high even as the SET index rebounded by 13 percent, Thomas said.The RSI has dropped since reaching 89.9 on May 13, the highest since November 1993. During that time the SET index has risen to its highest in almost nine months from 552.71.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.Relative strength indexes show how rapidly prices have advanced or dropped during a specified time period. Readings above 70 indicate a price may be poised to fall, and readings below 30 indicate it may be poised to rise.
Thai stocks have surged 39 percent this year, after slumping 48 percent in 2008, on the expectation easing political tension and economic stimulus packages will boost Southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy. Overseas investors have this year bought a net 16.2 billion baht ($474 million) of Thai stocks through yesterday, compared with net sales of 162 billion baht in 2008, according to Bloomberg’s data. The likelihood of a reversal in the rally is underscored by a divergence, in which the relative strength index has declined from a 15-year high even as the SET index rebounded by 13 percent, Thomas said.The RSI has dropped since reaching 89.9 on May 13, the highest since November 1993. During that time the SET index has risen to its highest in almost nine months from 552.71.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.Relative strength indexes show how rapidly prices have advanced or dropped during a specified time period. Readings above 70 indicate a price may be poised to fall, and readings below 30 indicate it may be poised to rise.
Riset Saham (PGAS, ITMG, INCO, ANTM, Property)
Merrill Lynch: Upgrade INCO & ANTM to Buy
After factoring in our new higher nickel px forecast, US$23mn insurance receipt, and 50% lower costs from efficiency program, INCO's earnings got quite a boost by 542% for 2009, 137% for 2010 and 87% for 2011. Hence, Daisy upgraded INCO to Buy with PO Rp 6,500, based on 47% premium to NPV which Daisy thinks is justifiable as cyclical stocks did trade at a premium to NPV in past cycles in anticipation of rising prices (up to 2x for gold stocks). As the saying goes "don't dance cha-cha when everybody is dancing disco", so just ride along because INCO will continue to rerate with nickel px recovery given close correlation (R²=0.9) b/w INCO’s shr px and nickel px. Aside from being one of the lowest cost producer, INCO's other catalysts include solid 2Q and higher dividend as it remains cash flow positive even at the current low nickel px environment. Our commodity team raised nickel px to US$5.7/lb for '09, $6.4 for '10, $5.6 for '11 and $5.3 for LT…these are higher by 27%, 26%, 15% and 9% respectively.
ANTM also got upgraded to Buy with PO Rp 2800. Daisy raised earnings by 227%, 203%, and 83% for 2009-11. Our new PO is based on 26% premium to NPV of Rp2,215. Nickel contributes ~60% to ANTM’s revenue. We see turnaround in ANTM on the back of its nickel bizz returning to profit in 2Q with nickel px now above ANTM's breakeven level of US$5.5/lb (vs loss of Rp29.4bn in 1Q). Further, with the re-commissioning of its FeNi3’s copper cooling system in Sept, we see limited downside risk to its ferronickel output.
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After factoring in our new higher nickel px forecast, US$23mn insurance receipt, and 50% lower costs from efficiency program, INCO's earnings got quite a boost by 542% for 2009, 137% for 2010 and 87% for 2011. Hence, Daisy upgraded INCO to Buy with PO Rp 6,500, based on 47% premium to NPV which Daisy thinks is justifiable as cyclical stocks did trade at a premium to NPV in past cycles in anticipation of rising prices (up to 2x for gold stocks). As the saying goes "don't dance cha-cha when everybody is dancing disco", so just ride along because INCO will continue to rerate with nickel px recovery given close correlation (R²=0.9) b/w INCO’s shr px and nickel px. Aside from being one of the lowest cost producer, INCO's other catalysts include solid 2Q and higher dividend as it remains cash flow positive even at the current low nickel px environment. Our commodity team raised nickel px to US$5.7/lb for '09, $6.4 for '10, $5.6 for '11 and $5.3 for LT…these are higher by 27%, 26%, 15% and 9% respectively.
ANTM also got upgraded to Buy with PO Rp 2800. Daisy raised earnings by 227%, 203%, and 83% for 2009-11. Our new PO is based on 26% premium to NPV of Rp2,215. Nickel contributes ~60% to ANTM’s revenue. We see turnaround in ANTM on the back of its nickel bizz returning to profit in 2Q with nickel px now above ANTM's breakeven level of US$5.5/lb (vs loss of Rp29.4bn in 1Q). Further, with the re-commissioning of its FeNi3’s copper cooling system in Sept, we see limited downside risk to its ferronickel output.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Momentum Kenaikan Regional Dapat Berlanjut Hari Ini
SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
10020 9690 9885 9590 9920 9765 10020 9645 9730 9875 10105 10190 10335
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek SSIM9 menunjukkan trend berbalik menjadi netral setelah ditutup dibawah middle line standard deviation di 9,856 untuk target 9704 (projeksi penurunan 100.0%)/9,577 (161.8%), didukung oleh indikator teknikal ADX mulai meningkat, stochastic menunjukkan dead cross dan MACD meski MACD masih menunjukkan bullish, kondisi tersebut menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Sementara pola uptrend channel mendukung kenaikan indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang, dengan resistance di 9920 (high 08/06)/9940 (projeksi 61.8%) dan 10,058 (projeksi 100.0 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9800-10100.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9820 target 10,050 stop 100p, Sell 10,050 target 9800 stop 100p, Sell 10250 target 10,000 stop 50p. Sell break 9800 target 9500 stop 60p. Buy 9550 target 9800. (+100+50p)
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
181.15 174.2 177.35 173.2 178.1 175.0 179.1 171.4 173.3 177.2 183.1 185.0 188.9
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSM9 menunjukkan trend bullish telah berbalik menjadi netral untuk jangka pendek, karena tembusnya trendline support di 176.03 dan ditutup di 174.25, diikuti indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic yang bearish, meski ADX terlihat lemah, menunjukkan potensi penurunan indeks terbatas pada hari ini. Indeks masih berada dalam pola falling wedge dengan resistance line berada di 182.84 yang membatasi momentum kenaikan indeks dimana trend jangka menengah bullish, bilamana break target 185.28 (projeksi 100.0 FE)/190.46 (downtrend line). Perkiraan range hari ini: 177.00-183.50
Rekomendasi : Sell 182.90 target 177.0 stop 100p, Sell break 176.30 target 172.00. Buy 167.50 target 174.50. Sell break 172.00 target 167.50 stop 100p. Sell 185.00 tgt 177. (-40+230p)
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18655 17813 18125 17713 18359 17969 18459 17701 17933 18294 18887 19119 19480
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks berbalik netral setelah menembus trendline support di 17,968 untuk target 17,509 (61.8 fibonacci retracement 18930-16634 & downward channel) selama berada di bawah 18323 (upper channel). Kondisi tersebut didukung oleh indikator teknikal stochastic yang bearish, MACD terkoreksi turun dan ADX terlihat lemah, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan momentum penurunan terbatas pada hari ini. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave motive (4) yang diperkirakan berakhir di 19,850 (wave 5???)dalam wave intermediate 3sub dalam sub cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 18.300-18.900.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 18,400 target 18100 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy 18100 target 18.450 stop 100 poin. Sell break 17950 target 17550 stop 100p. Sell 18950 target 18600 stop 100p. (+440p-50p)
10020 9690 9885 9590 9920 9765 10020 9645 9730 9875 10105 10190 10335
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek SSIM9 menunjukkan trend berbalik menjadi netral setelah ditutup dibawah middle line standard deviation di 9,856 untuk target 9704 (projeksi penurunan 100.0%)/9,577 (161.8%), didukung oleh indikator teknikal ADX mulai meningkat, stochastic menunjukkan dead cross dan MACD meski MACD masih menunjukkan bullish, kondisi tersebut menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Sementara pola uptrend channel mendukung kenaikan indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang, dengan resistance di 9920 (high 08/06)/9940 (projeksi 61.8%) dan 10,058 (projeksi 100.0 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9800-10100.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9820 target 10,050 stop 100p, Sell 10,050 target 9800 stop 100p, Sell 10250 target 10,000 stop 50p. Sell break 9800 target 9500 stop 60p. Buy 9550 target 9800. (+100+50p)
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
181.15 174.2 177.35 173.2 178.1 175.0 179.1 171.4 173.3 177.2 183.1 185.0 188.9
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSM9 menunjukkan trend bullish telah berbalik menjadi netral untuk jangka pendek, karena tembusnya trendline support di 176.03 dan ditutup di 174.25, diikuti indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic yang bearish, meski ADX terlihat lemah, menunjukkan potensi penurunan indeks terbatas pada hari ini. Indeks masih berada dalam pola falling wedge dengan resistance line berada di 182.84 yang membatasi momentum kenaikan indeks dimana trend jangka menengah bullish, bilamana break target 185.28 (projeksi 100.0 FE)/190.46 (downtrend line). Perkiraan range hari ini: 177.00-183.50
Rekomendasi : Sell 182.90 target 177.0 stop 100p, Sell break 176.30 target 172.00. Buy 167.50 target 174.50. Sell break 172.00 target 167.50 stop 100p. Sell 185.00 tgt 177. (-40+230p)
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18655 17813 18125 17713 18359 17969 18459 17701 17933 18294 18887 19119 19480
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks berbalik netral setelah menembus trendline support di 17,968 untuk target 17,509 (61.8 fibonacci retracement 18930-16634 & downward channel) selama berada di bawah 18323 (upper channel). Kondisi tersebut didukung oleh indikator teknikal stochastic yang bearish, MACD terkoreksi turun dan ADX terlihat lemah, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan momentum penurunan terbatas pada hari ini. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave motive (4) yang diperkirakan berakhir di 19,850 (wave 5???)dalam wave intermediate 3sub dalam sub cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 18.300-18.900.
Rekomendasi : Sell break 18,400 target 18100 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy 18100 target 18.450 stop 100 poin. Sell break 17950 target 17550 stop 100p. Sell 18950 target 18600 stop 100p. (+440p-50p)
S&P 500 Near Golden Cross May Signal Gains: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is approaching a so-called golden cross that’s considered a buy signal by analysts who make predictions based on patterns in price charts. A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average, which is currently at 878.04 for the S&P 500, rises above the 200-day moving average, which is at 918.33, Bloomberg data show. The formation implies further gains for the stock market, according to this type of technical analysis.“If the S&P can hold above its 200-day moving average, the potential for a golden cross increases,” Mary Ann Bartels and Stephen Suttmeier, technical analysts at Bank of America Corp., wrote in a report to clients yesterday.
The U.S. benchmark index’s 50-day moving average has been below the 200-day moving average since December 2007. The 40-day moving average already went above the 150-day moving average in May this year, forming a so-called silver cross, according to Bank of America.The S&P 500 has surged 39 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 amid speculation government measures and interest-rate cuts will help end the global recession. The gauge, which has posted three straight weekly gains, closed at the highest level for the year at 944.74 on June 2. The next resistance levels are at 915 to 965 and at 1,000 to 1,065, Bartels and Suttmeier said.
The U.S. benchmark index’s 50-day moving average has been below the 200-day moving average since December 2007. The 40-day moving average already went above the 150-day moving average in May this year, forming a so-called silver cross, according to Bank of America.The S&P 500 has surged 39 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 amid speculation government measures and interest-rate cuts will help end the global recession. The gauge, which has posted three straight weekly gains, closed at the highest level for the year at 944.74 on June 2. The next resistance levels are at 915 to 965 and at 1,000 to 1,065, Bartels and Suttmeier said.
Investors Get Bearish on S&P 500, Bullish on Japan, Survey Says
(Bloomberg) -- Investors predict the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will fall from its highest level in seven months on concern the government’s economic rescue efforts may spur inflation and drive up interest rates, a survey of Bloomberg users showed.
After optimism about the U.S. stock index rose to a record in May, the monthly Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Survey’s measure dropped 10 percent to 46.26 this month, below the threshold of 50 that divides sentiment between expectations for equity prices rising and falling in the next six months.
The survey’s 2,106 respondents also signaled changed outlook for stocks in Japan and Switzerland, turning from bearish to bullish on the Nikkei 225 and the Swiss Market Index. They grew more optimistic on the outlook for Brazil’s Bovespa and were less confident of gains for Mexico’s Bolsa.
Bloomberg users, surveyed from June 1 to June 5, expressed increased conviction that Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC 40 and Spain’s IBEX 35 would fall. Investors’ view of Italy’s FTSE MIB Index and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 improved, though they continued forecasting declines. “Investors are starting to question whether the support in the market is strong,” said Alberto Espelosin, who helps manage the equivalent of $10.5 billion at Zaragoza, Spain-based Ibercaja Gestion and participated in the survey. “Markets have some room to rise, but then they will stumble upon the huge deficits that governments are running into to rescue economies.”
Interest Rate Concern
In the U.S., traders are increasing bets that the $12.8 trillion pledged by the government and Federal Reserve to fight the recession will push consumer prices up, forcing the central bank to raise interest rates and slowing the recovery. Speculation the Fed will raise rates amid the highest unemployment since 1983 spurred concern that the S&P 500’s steepest rally since the 1930s will end. Confidence in U.S. stocks hit 51.6 in May, the most since the Bloomberg survey began in 2007.The S&P 500 climbed to the highest level since November on June 2, up 40 percent since March. That pushed its price-to- earnings ratio to 15.5, the most expensive in eight months. Since last week’s peak, the benchmark index for U.S. equities has fallen 0.2 percent to 942.43 points.
Lending Target
The U.S. central bank cut the target for its benchmark lending rate to as low as zero in December. Fed funds futures trading shows a 25 percent chance policy makers will raise the rate by September, compared with odds of 17 percent a week ago. The Bloomberg survey’s reading in Germany dropped 2.4 percent to 42.71. The DAX Index was valued at 26.7 times the earnings of its companies at the close of trading yesterday, near the highest in almost five years. Speculation that government measures and interest-rate cuts will help end the first global recession since World War II spurred the index’s 36 percent rebound from a four-year low on March 6.
The confidence measure lost 4.3 percent to 47.54 in France and 8.8 percent to 33.75 in Spain. Pessimism decreased in Italy, with the Bloomberg measure climbing 9.8 percent to 48.44, and in the U.K., where it rose 12 percent to 45.71.Investors turned bullish in Japan and Switzerland. Japan’s government on May 22 raised its assessment of the economy for the first time in almost three years and the nation’s industrial production increased in April by the most in 56 years.
Economy ‘Hit Bottom’
“The economy has hit bottom and people are hopeful it’s going to recover,” said Naoki Fujiwara, who oversees about $6.1 billion at Shinkin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. The confidence measure rose 9.9 percent in Japan to 53.88 and 57 percent in Switzerland to 50.85.Bullishness on Brazil increased 3 percent to 64.52. The Bovespa index has climbed 42 percent this year on speculation record low interest rates and improved commodity demand will boost growth. Investors poured 6.08 billion reais ($3.1 billion) into Brazilian stocks in May, the biggest monthly inflow ever.
Respondents became less bullish on Mexico, where the index dropped 13 percent to 50.52. The nation’s economy will shrink 4.4 percent this year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, dragged down by the global recession and the effects of swine flu.
After optimism about the U.S. stock index rose to a record in May, the monthly Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Survey’s measure dropped 10 percent to 46.26 this month, below the threshold of 50 that divides sentiment between expectations for equity prices rising and falling in the next six months.
The survey’s 2,106 respondents also signaled changed outlook for stocks in Japan and Switzerland, turning from bearish to bullish on the Nikkei 225 and the Swiss Market Index. They grew more optimistic on the outlook for Brazil’s Bovespa and were less confident of gains for Mexico’s Bolsa.
Bloomberg users, surveyed from June 1 to June 5, expressed increased conviction that Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC 40 and Spain’s IBEX 35 would fall. Investors’ view of Italy’s FTSE MIB Index and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 improved, though they continued forecasting declines. “Investors are starting to question whether the support in the market is strong,” said Alberto Espelosin, who helps manage the equivalent of $10.5 billion at Zaragoza, Spain-based Ibercaja Gestion and participated in the survey. “Markets have some room to rise, but then they will stumble upon the huge deficits that governments are running into to rescue economies.”
Interest Rate Concern
In the U.S., traders are increasing bets that the $12.8 trillion pledged by the government and Federal Reserve to fight the recession will push consumer prices up, forcing the central bank to raise interest rates and slowing the recovery. Speculation the Fed will raise rates amid the highest unemployment since 1983 spurred concern that the S&P 500’s steepest rally since the 1930s will end. Confidence in U.S. stocks hit 51.6 in May, the most since the Bloomberg survey began in 2007.The S&P 500 climbed to the highest level since November on June 2, up 40 percent since March. That pushed its price-to- earnings ratio to 15.5, the most expensive in eight months. Since last week’s peak, the benchmark index for U.S. equities has fallen 0.2 percent to 942.43 points.
Lending Target
The U.S. central bank cut the target for its benchmark lending rate to as low as zero in December. Fed funds futures trading shows a 25 percent chance policy makers will raise the rate by September, compared with odds of 17 percent a week ago. The Bloomberg survey’s reading in Germany dropped 2.4 percent to 42.71. The DAX Index was valued at 26.7 times the earnings of its companies at the close of trading yesterday, near the highest in almost five years. Speculation that government measures and interest-rate cuts will help end the first global recession since World War II spurred the index’s 36 percent rebound from a four-year low on March 6.
The confidence measure lost 4.3 percent to 47.54 in France and 8.8 percent to 33.75 in Spain. Pessimism decreased in Italy, with the Bloomberg measure climbing 9.8 percent to 48.44, and in the U.K., where it rose 12 percent to 45.71.Investors turned bullish in Japan and Switzerland. Japan’s government on May 22 raised its assessment of the economy for the first time in almost three years and the nation’s industrial production increased in April by the most in 56 years.
Economy ‘Hit Bottom’
“The economy has hit bottom and people are hopeful it’s going to recover,” said Naoki Fujiwara, who oversees about $6.1 billion at Shinkin Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. The confidence measure rose 9.9 percent in Japan to 53.88 and 57 percent in Switzerland to 50.85.Bullishness on Brazil increased 3 percent to 64.52. The Bovespa index has climbed 42 percent this year on speculation record low interest rates and improved commodity demand will boost growth. Investors poured 6.08 billion reais ($3.1 billion) into Brazilian stocks in May, the biggest monthly inflow ever.
Respondents became less bullish on Mexico, where the index dropped 13 percent to 50.52. The nation’s economy will shrink 4.4 percent this year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, dragged down by the global recession and the effects of swine flu.
Dollar, Bonds to Fall on Recovery Signs, Survey Says
(Bloomberg) -- Investors worldwide predict that government bond prices and the U.S. dollar will weaken as demand for better-yielding assets increases amid rising confidence in the global economy, a survey of Bloomberg users shows. Participants forecast higher long-term bond yields over the next six months as investors sell Treasuries in favor of German, Brazilian and Japanese stocks and oil and copper, according to 2,410 respondents from New York to Tokyo to London in the Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index.“Investors have an appetite for risk that was not there a couple of months ago,” said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, who participated in the survey. “It all starts with recovery.”
The index of expectations for long-term Treasury yields rose to 73.71, the most since Bloomberg began conducting the survey in December 2007, from 67.2 in April. A reading above 50 in the so-called diffusion index indicates participants are bearish on Treasury prices and expect yields to rise.Treasuries are suffering their biggest losses since at least 1978, when Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes began tracking their performance, as the U.S. government issues more debt and investors become increasingly concerned that inflation will return. Government debt has lost 6.2 percent since December, following a 14 percent gain in 2008 as investors sought refuge from losses tied to subprime mortgages, according to Merrill Lynch’s U.S. Treasury Master index.
Treasury Yields
Yields on 10-year notes rose to a seven-month high of 3.92 percent today, the highest since Nov. 4, from 2.21 percent at the start of the year. The 30-year Treasury yield increased to 4.73 percent, the highest in a year. The government will sell a record $3.25 trillion of debt in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of the 16 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve and are required to bid on Treasury auctions.Survey participants almost set records for bearish bond sentiment in the U.K., which rose to 75.36 from 65.59, in Italy which increased to 71.88 from 58.82, and in France, which climbed to 65.98 from 55.86.The biggest shift was in Mexico, where expectations for long-term bond prices to gain vanished, with the index increasing to 52.6 from 32.11.
‘Asset Allocation’
“We’re not calling for more bank failures or even lower GDP,” said Suvrat Prakash, an interest-rate strategist in New York and survey participant at BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a primary Treasury dealer. “If you think things can’t get worse, it might not be such a bad idea to buy the stock market. There’s bound to be some asset allocation” out of government bonds, Prakash said. The survey’s index for expectations on the U.S. dollar fell by the most since March 2008 to 31.61, the lowest since then. The dollar has fallen against 11 of the 16 most traded currencies this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “Dollar weakness prevailed before the breakout of the credit crisis,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto, who participated in the survey. “That trend is going to re-emerge.”Confidence in the global economy rose to 43.57, the highest since the poll began, from 38.72 in May.
Unemployment
Sentiment is picking up as job losses in the U.S. grew by the smallest amount since September last month. Payrolls fell by 345,000, after a 504,000 loss in March, even as the unemployment rate increased to 9.4 percent, the highest level since 1983, the Labor Department said June 5. The National Association of Retailers said June 2 that the number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes climbed 6.7 percent in April, more than forecast and the fourth increase in five months.
Increased risk appetite also pushed up sentiment for the Brazilian real to 78.63 from 64.95, the highest since November 2007. French participants were the most bullish ever on the euro, to 71.31 from 53.79. Brazil’s Bovespa Stock Index has soared 45 percent since the end of March while the CAC 40 Index in France has rallied 30 percent before today.After financial institutions worldwide recorded credit losses of $1.47 trillion since 2007, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index of U.S. stocks has rallied 39 percent to 942.43 yesterday from its March 9 low of 676.53. It’s still down 40 percent from its October 2007 high of 1,576.09.
Beefed Up
Sentiment has improved after global governments and central banks beefed up efforts to combat the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. The European Central Bank joined policy makers at the Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan in saying it will buy debt securities. The Fed’s decision to print money to buy $153 billion of government debt and $532.9 billion of mortgage securities as it tried to push down consumer borrowing costs and China’s Treasury purchases also are contributing to pessimism about bond prices. “You have the economic optimism that’s pushing people to think that yields could be higher on the long end, you’ve got the inflationary policies, the threat that China could be dumping Treasuries on the long-end,” BNP’s Prakash said.
The index of expectations for long-term Treasury yields rose to 73.71, the most since Bloomberg began conducting the survey in December 2007, from 67.2 in April. A reading above 50 in the so-called diffusion index indicates participants are bearish on Treasury prices and expect yields to rise.Treasuries are suffering their biggest losses since at least 1978, when Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes began tracking their performance, as the U.S. government issues more debt and investors become increasingly concerned that inflation will return. Government debt has lost 6.2 percent since December, following a 14 percent gain in 2008 as investors sought refuge from losses tied to subprime mortgages, according to Merrill Lynch’s U.S. Treasury Master index.
Treasury Yields
Yields on 10-year notes rose to a seven-month high of 3.92 percent today, the highest since Nov. 4, from 2.21 percent at the start of the year. The 30-year Treasury yield increased to 4.73 percent, the highest in a year. The government will sell a record $3.25 trillion of debt in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of the 16 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve and are required to bid on Treasury auctions.Survey participants almost set records for bearish bond sentiment in the U.K., which rose to 75.36 from 65.59, in Italy which increased to 71.88 from 58.82, and in France, which climbed to 65.98 from 55.86.The biggest shift was in Mexico, where expectations for long-term bond prices to gain vanished, with the index increasing to 52.6 from 32.11.
‘Asset Allocation’
“We’re not calling for more bank failures or even lower GDP,” said Suvrat Prakash, an interest-rate strategist in New York and survey participant at BNP Paribas Securities Corp., a primary Treasury dealer. “If you think things can’t get worse, it might not be such a bad idea to buy the stock market. There’s bound to be some asset allocation” out of government bonds, Prakash said. The survey’s index for expectations on the U.S. dollar fell by the most since March 2008 to 31.61, the lowest since then. The dollar has fallen against 11 of the 16 most traded currencies this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “Dollar weakness prevailed before the breakout of the credit crisis,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto, who participated in the survey. “That trend is going to re-emerge.”Confidence in the global economy rose to 43.57, the highest since the poll began, from 38.72 in May.
Unemployment
Sentiment is picking up as job losses in the U.S. grew by the smallest amount since September last month. Payrolls fell by 345,000, after a 504,000 loss in March, even as the unemployment rate increased to 9.4 percent, the highest level since 1983, the Labor Department said June 5. The National Association of Retailers said June 2 that the number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes climbed 6.7 percent in April, more than forecast and the fourth increase in five months.
Increased risk appetite also pushed up sentiment for the Brazilian real to 78.63 from 64.95, the highest since November 2007. French participants were the most bullish ever on the euro, to 71.31 from 53.79. Brazil’s Bovespa Stock Index has soared 45 percent since the end of March while the CAC 40 Index in France has rallied 30 percent before today.After financial institutions worldwide recorded credit losses of $1.47 trillion since 2007, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index of U.S. stocks has rallied 39 percent to 942.43 yesterday from its March 9 low of 676.53. It’s still down 40 percent from its October 2007 high of 1,576.09.
Beefed Up
Sentiment has improved after global governments and central banks beefed up efforts to combat the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. The European Central Bank joined policy makers at the Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan in saying it will buy debt securities. The Fed’s decision to print money to buy $153 billion of government debt and $532.9 billion of mortgage securities as it tried to push down consumer borrowing costs and China’s Treasury purchases also are contributing to pessimism about bond prices. “You have the economic optimism that’s pushing people to think that yields could be higher on the long end, you’ve got the inflationary policies, the threat that China could be dumping Treasuries on the long-end,” BNP’s Prakash said.
Gbp/Usd Wave II) at 1.6330, Gold Wave 5) near to $1000
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Gbp/Usd Wave II) at 1.6330 - Jun 9 09 7:54 EDT
2 Hour Chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 1.5800, and 1.6661. Looking for: Wave II)
Prices on the two hour cable chart are trading to the upside, and we have re-worked the wave count a into near-term bullish direction. It seem that the market is trading in a corrective wave II); we came out with a possible leading diagonal in wave I). Prices in wave two usually make a retracement of 61.8% of the previous wave one. In our case that would be somewhere around the 1.6330 area where traders may be looking for a short turning point, as soon as wave c completes. the 1.6661 resistance area needs to hold, otherwise will the wave count be invalidated.
Gold Wave 5) near to $1000
4 Hour Chart trend: Long. Main price points: 943.29, and 979.79. Looking for: Wave 5) , as long 943.29 holds
Wave 4) on gold has found the lows in the zone of the prior wave four area, as expected. Wave C has completed a whole zig-zag correction at the 943.29 lows, which now needs to hold for a higher wave 5). If the wave count is correct, and if the wave 5) has really started, then the market should reach new highs in the coming days or weeks, somewhere above red wave 3) top.
Gbp/Usd Wave II) at 1.6330 - Jun 9 09 7:54 EDT
2 Hour Chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 1.5800, and 1.6661. Looking for: Wave II)
Prices on the two hour cable chart are trading to the upside, and we have re-worked the wave count a into near-term bullish direction. It seem that the market is trading in a corrective wave II); we came out with a possible leading diagonal in wave I). Prices in wave two usually make a retracement of 61.8% of the previous wave one. In our case that would be somewhere around the 1.6330 area where traders may be looking for a short turning point, as soon as wave c completes. the 1.6661 resistance area needs to hold, otherwise will the wave count be invalidated.
Gold Wave 5) near to $1000
4 Hour Chart trend: Long. Main price points: 943.29, and 979.79. Looking for: Wave 5) , as long 943.29 holds
Wave 4) on gold has found the lows in the zone of the prior wave four area, as expected. Wave C has completed a whole zig-zag correction at the 943.29 lows, which now needs to hold for a higher wave 5). If the wave count is correct, and if the wave 5) has really started, then the market should reach new highs in the coming days or weeks, somewhere above red wave 3) top.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex & DJIA
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Bouncing smartly from the 26-day moving average and retracement support, adding weight to our view that the longer term trend is to a stronger Euro. Today's push above the 9-day moving average is impressive and should add to bullish momentum.
Strategy: Buy at 1.4115; stop well below 1.4000. Short term target 1.4225, then 1.4325.Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4051 " 1.412
1.4 1.417
1.3925 1.423
1.385 1.427
1.3800* 1.4339
GBPUSD
Comment: Almost too good to be true as Cable bounces smartly from retracement and trendline support, and the 26-day moving average which all cluster around 1.5800. Yesterday's close above the 9-day moving average should add to bullish momentum for a re-test of this year's high at 1.6664. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.6370, adding to 1.6000; stop below 1.5800. First target 1.6425, then 1.6650. Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6295 " 1.64
1.617 1.6436
1.5985 1.65
1.5800* 1.6595
1.57 1.6664
USDJPY
Comment: Dropping below a thin Ichimoku 'cloud', hovering at its lower edge, above moving averages. Expect more cautious random small swings today and probably all week. Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts on a bounce to 98.00, adding to 98.55; stop above 99.25. First target 97.00 then 96.00 Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
97.25 " 97.73
97 98.1
96.83 98.58
96.65 98.85/99.00*
96 99.8
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.4025, 1.3990 and 1.3953(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3922, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3904. Break of the latter would result in 1.3891. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3872. Continuation will give 1.3858. Today's resistance: - 1.4123(main). Break would give 1.4176, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4220. Break of the latter would result in 1.4247. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4266. Continuation will give 1.4290.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 96.90(main). Break would bring 96.77, where correction is possible. Then 96.53, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 96.40. If a strong impulse, we would see 96.17. Continuation would give 95.86.
Today's resistance: - 97.88 and 98.21(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 98.58, where also a correction may be. Then 98.78. If a strong impulse, we would see 99.26 Continuation will give 99.47.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: -8724.32, 8673.70, 8634.17 and 8561.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8495.80, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44. Today's resistance: - 8808.80 and 8842.72(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8858.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8887.46, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8910.00. Continuation would bring 8927.28.
EURUSD
Comment: Bouncing smartly from the 26-day moving average and retracement support, adding weight to our view that the longer term trend is to a stronger Euro. Today's push above the 9-day moving average is impressive and should add to bullish momentum.
Strategy: Buy at 1.4115; stop well below 1.4000. Short term target 1.4225, then 1.4325.Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4051 " 1.412
1.4 1.417
1.3925 1.423
1.385 1.427
1.3800* 1.4339
GBPUSD
Comment: Almost too good to be true as Cable bounces smartly from retracement and trendline support, and the 26-day moving average which all cluster around 1.5800. Yesterday's close above the 9-day moving average should add to bullish momentum for a re-test of this year's high at 1.6664. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.6370, adding to 1.6000; stop below 1.5800. First target 1.6425, then 1.6650. Direction of Trade: →↗ Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6295 " 1.64
1.617 1.6436
1.5985 1.65
1.5800* 1.6595
1.57 1.6664
USDJPY
Comment: Dropping below a thin Ichimoku 'cloud', hovering at its lower edge, above moving averages. Expect more cautious random small swings today and probably all week. Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts on a bounce to 98.00, adding to 98.55; stop above 99.25. First target 97.00 then 96.00 Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
97.25 " 97.73
97 98.1
96.83 98.58
96.65 98.85/99.00*
96 99.8
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.4025, 1.3990 and 1.3953(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3922, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3904. Break of the latter would result in 1.3891. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3872. Continuation will give 1.3858. Today's resistance: - 1.4123(main). Break would give 1.4176, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4220. Break of the latter would result in 1.4247. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4266. Continuation will give 1.4290.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 96.90(main). Break would bring 96.77, where correction is possible. Then 96.53, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 96.40. If a strong impulse, we would see 96.17. Continuation would give 95.86.
Today's resistance: - 97.88 and 98.21(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 98.58, where also a correction may be. Then 98.78. If a strong impulse, we would see 99.26 Continuation will give 99.47.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: -8724.32, 8673.70, 8634.17 and 8561.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8495.80, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44. Today's resistance: - 8808.80 and 8842.72(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8858.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8887.46, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8910.00. Continuation would bring 8927.28.
Risk Appetite INvesor Meningkat Menjelang Fed Beige Book
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
79.86 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4078 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar mengalami tekanan lebih lanjut di sesi Asia terhadap mata uang utama dunia, berkat spekulasi resesi global mereda, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih beresiko. Minimnya data ekonomi global kemarin dan kuatnya permintaan untuk saham dan komoditi global, berperan melemahkan dolar terhadap euro, pound dan yen. Isu kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun dapat diredam oleh kekhawatiran rating hutang AS yang berpotensi diturunkan dalam waktu dekat karena kian beratnya beban pemerintah AS menganggung hutang dan defisit anggaran yang diperkirakan mencapai $ 3.2 triliun di akhir tahun ini (prediksi Goldman Sachs). Penguatan mata uang aussie berkat lebih baik dari perkiraan data consumer confidence Australia dan Krona Swedia menguat untuk hari ke-2 berkat spekulasi rencana Latvia untuk memangkas spending dimana akan meredakan kekhawatiran bank bank di Swedia akan mengalami kerugian. Sementara spekulasi positifnya laporan Fed Beige Book dirilis hari ini dan spekulasi kenaikan data Retail Sales AS dirilis besok berkat kenaikan penjualan otomotif, dapat menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar, terutama menjelang lelang Treasury 2-tahun AS, senilai $ 65 miliar, dapat membatasi potens pelemahan dolar baik secara fundamental maupun teknikal bearish untuk jangka menengah.
Euro menguat lebih lanjut terhadap dolar dan yen setelah kenaikan pasar saham dan komoditi global berkat optimisme investro global kian meningkat setelah ekonom Paul Krugman memberikan signal bahwa ekonomi AS dapat keluar dari resesi di bulan September dan signal pemulihan ekonomi global dari Australia dan Inggris baru-baru ini, mendorong investor berani beresiko untuk aset yang dapat menghasilkan tingkat keuntungan yang lebih tinggi. di tengah minimnya data ekonomi dari Eropa dan AS, euro menguat berkat investor mempertanyakan peluang kenaikan suku bunga di akhir tahun, dimana euro sempat melemah ke level terendah $ 1.3854 di sesi London kemarin, euro berhasil rebound ke level 1.4100 di sesi New York semalam. Meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap masalah keuangan di Eropa Timur, setelah latvia, terpukul oleh memburuknya keuangan publik, meredam spekulasi devaluasi mata uang Latvia. Dalam waktu dekat, pasar mata uang mungkin akan mencari lebih banyak petunjuk dari data ekonomi yang dapat memberikan bukti untuk menjamin perubahan arah trend suku bunga. Trend bullish saham global dapat menguatkan euro dolar lebih lanjut.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
97.61 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6326 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen menguat terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat kenaikan pasar saham dan komoditi global telah menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS, serta meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun mengikuti komentar Paul Krugman dan lebih baik dari perkiraan data payroll AS di akhir pekan lalu. Data core machinery orders Jepagn terkontraksi 32.8% y/y di bulan Aprul dan corporate goods prices anjlok 5.4% y/y. Yen menguat ke level tertinggi Y 97.09 di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah indeks saham Nikkei 225 stock average menguat 204.67 di 9991.49, meningkatkan permintaan untuk yen, karena kenaikan saham Jepang mendorong investor melepas dolar AS, dimana saham dapat menghasilkan keuntungan yang lebih tinggi. Indeks komoditi Reuters/Jefferies CRB menguat 2.5% kemarin, ke level tertinggi sejak 11 November. Harga minyak menguat ke tertinggi $ 70.94 barel hari ini, level tertinggi sejak 4 November. Spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global lebih lanjut dapat diberikan oleh laporan Fed Beige Book hari ini dan spekulasi Retail Sales AS akan meningkat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar besok, seharusnya meningkatkan daya tarik untuk dolar dan membatasi laju penguatan yen saat ini.
Pound sterling menguat ke level tertinggi 1-pekan terhadap dolar di $ 1.6418 di sesi Asia hari ini setelah kenaikan harga saham dan komoditi global meningkat hingga hari ini, serta Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Inggris yang mengatakan sektor perumahan Inggris mulai stabil, meningkatkan optimisme resesi ekonomi terburuk mungkin telah berakhir. Pound juga menguat terhadap euro dan yen berkat spekulasi Perdana Menteri Gordon Brown megacuhkan desakan untuk mundur setelah serangkaian menteri di kabinet mundur dan kekalahan partai berkuasa di pemilu lokal dan Eropa. Spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi AS berkat komentar Paul Krugman kemarin dan data payrol lAS di akhir pekan lalu, mendorong kenaikan pound terhadap dolar, karena meredanya spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun ini. Perkiraan positifnya laporan Fed Beige Book yang dipersiapkan untuk pertemuan FOMC bulan Juni, seharusnya masih meningkatkan permintaan untuk pound karena investor akan berlanjut memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,010 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.8046 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) pada hari ini diperdagangkan menguat untuk menembus kembali level 10,000 karena sentimen positif dari kenaikan indeks saham gabungan (IHSG) ke level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008 dan pelemahan dolar AS terhadap mata uang Eropa dan yen Jepang, karena meningkatnya optimisme pasar terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global dan meredam spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun. Trend pelemahan dolar AS secara global, dapat menguatkan rupiah lebih lanjut ke target Rp 9,500 di bulan ini, karena meningkatnya permintaan untuk rupiah berdasarkan perbedaan suku bunga Indonesia-AS dan solidnya fundamental ekonomi AS.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) menghentikan penurunan selama 3 hari terakhir terhadap dolar berkat spekulasi the Fed tidak akan tergesa-gesa untuk menaikkan suku bunga, mempertahankan yield tambahan yang ditawarkan oleh kedua negara tersebut. Aussie juga menguat setelah data industri menunjukkan consumer confidence Australia bulan Juni mengalami kenaikan terbesar dalam 22 tahun terakhir, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset di Australia. Trader kemarin menurunkan peluang bank sentral AS untuk menurunkan suku bunga karena ekonomi AS pulih dari resesi. Potensi penguatan aussie dan kiwi masih berlanjut berdasarkan perkiraan pemulihan ekonomi global mengikuti perkiraan positifnya laporan Fed Beige Book AS nanti malam.
Technical Analysis
(+215+100p) kuatnya support di 1.3785 mendukung trend bullish EUR-USD masih valid, karena didukung oleh pola candle breakaway bullis di daily chart dan indikator teknikal ADX 4 jam terkoreksi turun menunjukkan potensi penurunan baru-baru ini lemah, berpotensi rebound, sesuai dengan indikator stochastic & MACD yang masih uptrend. Kondisi tersebut sesuai dengan hitungan Elliot wave bahwa euro dolar bottom out minor di 1.3804 dalam proses wave b di kisaran 1.4130/1.4200 (downtrend line) dalam subwave intermediate 4. Buy 1.4050 target di 1.4210 stop 60p, sell 1.4210 target 1.4100 stop 60p, Buy break 1.4220 target 1.4340 stop 50p.
(Hold buy 97.50 stop 96.90 target 98.80) Dalam chart 4 jam USDJPY menunjukkan trend bearish setelah menembus trendline support di 97.63 dan pola daily chndle menunjukkan evening star (moderate bearis reversal), seharusnya masih menahan momentum kenaikan untuk hari ini. Indikator teknikal ADX terkoreksi turun memperlihatkan peluang penurunan terbatas, meski stochastic downtrend, meski MACD masih uptrend. Support berada 97.07 (10 MA)/96.73 (200 MA). Sell break 96.90 target 95.00 stop 97.50, sell 98.80 target 97.10 stop 50p. Sell break 96.00 target 95.00.
(+130+110p). Sesuai perkiraan indikator teknikal menunjukkan GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish setelah bertahan di atas 50.0 fibonacci retracement di 1.5804 dari 1.6661-1.4943 untuk rebound ke target projection 61.8% di 1.6346 (telah ditembus)/1.6682 (100.0% FE). Indikator teknikal ADX 4 jam menunjukkan momentum kenaikan, Stochastic crossing up, MACD juga rebound dari oversold, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenakan pada hari ini. Jika GBP-USD ditutup dibawah 1.6342 hari ini, dapat menahan momentum kenaikan harga untuk target 1.6661. Pola inverted H&S di chart 1 jam dengan neckline di 1.6181 telah tembus target 1.6620. Analisa EW menunjukkan wave koreksi b target 1.6444/1.6680. Buy 1.6330 & buy break 1.6440 1target 1.6610 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6 target 1.6350 stop 100p. Sell break 1.6250 target 1.6000 stop 50p. Sell 1.6610 target 1.6350 stop 50p. Buy break 1.6670 target 1.7054 stop 100p.
(+120p) AUD-USD masih mempetahankan trend bullish selama ditutup diatas 0.7952 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement 0.8286-0.7450), untuk target 0.8254 (high 03/06)/0.8384 (trendline resistance). Indikator teknikal menunjukkan ADX terkoreksi naik, MACD dan stochastic masih berada dalam teritorial positif, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish di atas ascending triangle). Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave impulse 5 minor dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy 0.8010 target 0.8250 stop 100p, Sell 0.8250 target 0.8050 stop 50p. Buy 0.7940 target 0.8250, sell break 0.7820 target 0.7700 stop 50p.
79.86 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.4078 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar mengalami tekanan lebih lanjut di sesi Asia terhadap mata uang utama dunia, berkat spekulasi resesi global mereda, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih beresiko. Minimnya data ekonomi global kemarin dan kuatnya permintaan untuk saham dan komoditi global, berperan melemahkan dolar terhadap euro, pound dan yen. Isu kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun dapat diredam oleh kekhawatiran rating hutang AS yang berpotensi diturunkan dalam waktu dekat karena kian beratnya beban pemerintah AS menganggung hutang dan defisit anggaran yang diperkirakan mencapai $ 3.2 triliun di akhir tahun ini (prediksi Goldman Sachs). Penguatan mata uang aussie berkat lebih baik dari perkiraan data consumer confidence Australia dan Krona Swedia menguat untuk hari ke-2 berkat spekulasi rencana Latvia untuk memangkas spending dimana akan meredakan kekhawatiran bank bank di Swedia akan mengalami kerugian. Sementara spekulasi positifnya laporan Fed Beige Book dirilis hari ini dan spekulasi kenaikan data Retail Sales AS dirilis besok berkat kenaikan penjualan otomotif, dapat menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar, terutama menjelang lelang Treasury 2-tahun AS, senilai $ 65 miliar, dapat membatasi potens pelemahan dolar baik secara fundamental maupun teknikal bearish untuk jangka menengah.
Euro menguat lebih lanjut terhadap dolar dan yen setelah kenaikan pasar saham dan komoditi global berkat optimisme investro global kian meningkat setelah ekonom Paul Krugman memberikan signal bahwa ekonomi AS dapat keluar dari resesi di bulan September dan signal pemulihan ekonomi global dari Australia dan Inggris baru-baru ini, mendorong investor berani beresiko untuk aset yang dapat menghasilkan tingkat keuntungan yang lebih tinggi. di tengah minimnya data ekonomi dari Eropa dan AS, euro menguat berkat investor mempertanyakan peluang kenaikan suku bunga di akhir tahun, dimana euro sempat melemah ke level terendah $ 1.3854 di sesi London kemarin, euro berhasil rebound ke level 1.4100 di sesi New York semalam. Meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap masalah keuangan di Eropa Timur, setelah latvia, terpukul oleh memburuknya keuangan publik, meredam spekulasi devaluasi mata uang Latvia. Dalam waktu dekat, pasar mata uang mungkin akan mencari lebih banyak petunjuk dari data ekonomi yang dapat memberikan bukti untuk menjamin perubahan arah trend suku bunga. Trend bullish saham global dapat menguatkan euro dolar lebih lanjut.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
97.61 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6326 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen menguat terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat kenaikan pasar saham dan komoditi global telah menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS, serta meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun mengikuti komentar Paul Krugman dan lebih baik dari perkiraan data payroll AS di akhir pekan lalu. Data core machinery orders Jepagn terkontraksi 32.8% y/y di bulan Aprul dan corporate goods prices anjlok 5.4% y/y. Yen menguat ke level tertinggi Y 97.09 di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah indeks saham Nikkei 225 stock average menguat 204.67 di 9991.49, meningkatkan permintaan untuk yen, karena kenaikan saham Jepang mendorong investor melepas dolar AS, dimana saham dapat menghasilkan keuntungan yang lebih tinggi. Indeks komoditi Reuters/Jefferies CRB menguat 2.5% kemarin, ke level tertinggi sejak 11 November. Harga minyak menguat ke tertinggi $ 70.94 barel hari ini, level tertinggi sejak 4 November. Spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global lebih lanjut dapat diberikan oleh laporan Fed Beige Book hari ini dan spekulasi Retail Sales AS akan meningkat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar besok, seharusnya meningkatkan daya tarik untuk dolar dan membatasi laju penguatan yen saat ini.
Pound sterling menguat ke level tertinggi 1-pekan terhadap dolar di $ 1.6418 di sesi Asia hari ini setelah kenaikan harga saham dan komoditi global meningkat hingga hari ini, serta Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Inggris yang mengatakan sektor perumahan Inggris mulai stabil, meningkatkan optimisme resesi ekonomi terburuk mungkin telah berakhir. Pound juga menguat terhadap euro dan yen berkat spekulasi Perdana Menteri Gordon Brown megacuhkan desakan untuk mundur setelah serangkaian menteri di kabinet mundur dan kekalahan partai berkuasa di pemilu lokal dan Eropa. Spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi AS berkat komentar Paul Krugman kemarin dan data payrol lAS di akhir pekan lalu, mendorong kenaikan pound terhadap dolar, karena meredanya spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun ini. Perkiraan positifnya laporan Fed Beige Book yang dipersiapkan untuk pertemuan FOMC bulan Juni, seharusnya masih meningkatkan permintaan untuk pound karena investor akan berlanjut memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,010 12,150 (02/03) 9,900 (05/06) 0.8046 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) pada hari ini diperdagangkan menguat untuk menembus kembali level 10,000 karena sentimen positif dari kenaikan indeks saham gabungan (IHSG) ke level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008 dan pelemahan dolar AS terhadap mata uang Eropa dan yen Jepang, karena meningkatnya optimisme pasar terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global dan meredam spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun. Trend pelemahan dolar AS secara global, dapat menguatkan rupiah lebih lanjut ke target Rp 9,500 di bulan ini, karena meningkatnya permintaan untuk rupiah berdasarkan perbedaan suku bunga Indonesia-AS dan solidnya fundamental ekonomi AS.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) menghentikan penurunan selama 3 hari terakhir terhadap dolar berkat spekulasi the Fed tidak akan tergesa-gesa untuk menaikkan suku bunga, mempertahankan yield tambahan yang ditawarkan oleh kedua negara tersebut. Aussie juga menguat setelah data industri menunjukkan consumer confidence Australia bulan Juni mengalami kenaikan terbesar dalam 22 tahun terakhir, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset di Australia. Trader kemarin menurunkan peluang bank sentral AS untuk menurunkan suku bunga karena ekonomi AS pulih dari resesi. Potensi penguatan aussie dan kiwi masih berlanjut berdasarkan perkiraan pemulihan ekonomi global mengikuti perkiraan positifnya laporan Fed Beige Book AS nanti malam.
Technical Analysis
(+215+100p) kuatnya support di 1.3785 mendukung trend bullish EUR-USD masih valid, karena didukung oleh pola candle breakaway bullis di daily chart dan indikator teknikal ADX 4 jam terkoreksi turun menunjukkan potensi penurunan baru-baru ini lemah, berpotensi rebound, sesuai dengan indikator stochastic & MACD yang masih uptrend. Kondisi tersebut sesuai dengan hitungan Elliot wave bahwa euro dolar bottom out minor di 1.3804 dalam proses wave b di kisaran 1.4130/1.4200 (downtrend line) dalam subwave intermediate 4. Buy 1.4050 target di 1.4210 stop 60p, sell 1.4210 target 1.4100 stop 60p, Buy break 1.4220 target 1.4340 stop 50p.
(Hold buy 97.50 stop 96.90 target 98.80) Dalam chart 4 jam USDJPY menunjukkan trend bearish setelah menembus trendline support di 97.63 dan pola daily chndle menunjukkan evening star (moderate bearis reversal), seharusnya masih menahan momentum kenaikan untuk hari ini. Indikator teknikal ADX terkoreksi turun memperlihatkan peluang penurunan terbatas, meski stochastic downtrend, meski MACD masih uptrend. Support berada 97.07 (10 MA)/96.73 (200 MA). Sell break 96.90 target 95.00 stop 97.50, sell 98.80 target 97.10 stop 50p. Sell break 96.00 target 95.00.
(+130+110p). Sesuai perkiraan indikator teknikal menunjukkan GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish setelah bertahan di atas 50.0 fibonacci retracement di 1.5804 dari 1.6661-1.4943 untuk rebound ke target projection 61.8% di 1.6346 (telah ditembus)/1.6682 (100.0% FE). Indikator teknikal ADX 4 jam menunjukkan momentum kenaikan, Stochastic crossing up, MACD juga rebound dari oversold, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenakan pada hari ini. Jika GBP-USD ditutup dibawah 1.6342 hari ini, dapat menahan momentum kenaikan harga untuk target 1.6661. Pola inverted H&S di chart 1 jam dengan neckline di 1.6181 telah tembus target 1.6620. Analisa EW menunjukkan wave koreksi b target 1.6444/1.6680. Buy 1.6330 & buy break 1.6440 1target 1.6610 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6 target 1.6350 stop 100p. Sell break 1.6250 target 1.6000 stop 50p. Sell 1.6610 target 1.6350 stop 50p. Buy break 1.6670 target 1.7054 stop 100p.
(+120p) AUD-USD masih mempetahankan trend bullish selama ditutup diatas 0.7952 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement 0.8286-0.7450), untuk target 0.8254 (high 03/06)/0.8384 (trendline resistance). Indikator teknikal menunjukkan ADX terkoreksi naik, MACD dan stochastic masih berada dalam teritorial positif, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish di atas ascending triangle). Elliot wave menunjukkan proses wave impulse 5 minor dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy 0.8010 target 0.8250 stop 100p, Sell 0.8250 target 0.8050 stop 50p. Buy 0.7940 target 0.8250, sell break 0.7820 target 0.7700 stop 50p.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Saham Komoditi & Property Dapat Menopang Momentum Kenaikan IHSG
Market Review
IHSG kian mendekati level 2,100 kemarin, setelah saham dari sektor aneka industri pertambangan, perbankan dan property angkat IHSG ke level tertinggi sejak 4 September 2008. Sejumlah isu positif domestik dan eksternal memberikan momentum kenaikan IHSG, dimana kenaikan saham di IHSG terlihat menyebar ke saham lapis kedua dan lapis ketiga, karena saham lapis pertama terlihat overvalued dan overshoot pergerakan harganya. Revisi pertumbuhan ekonomi oleh pemerintah dan DPR kemarin, diikuti komentar ekonom pemenang hadiah Nobel Paul Krugman* bahwa ekonomi AS sepertinya akan pulih di bulan September, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk BEI yang secara keseluruhan masih relatif murah (PE) ketimbang indeks saham regional di Asia Tenggara dan Asia. IHSG menguat 36.647 poin (+1.782%), ditutup di 2,093.294, dengan nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 4.396 triliun. Investor asing membubukan net selling Rp 47.035 miliar kemarin, dibandingkan net buy Rp 47.035 miliar hari Senin(08/06).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific anjlok untuk hari ke-2, setelah agen rating Fitch IBCA memprediksikan resesi ekonomi Hong Kong yang lebih dalam (-9.1% y/y), memicu spekulasi rally saham selama 3 bulan telah overvalued dan melampaui prediksi pendapatan, mengacuhkan pengaruh komentar Paul Krugman*.
IHSG Outlook
Dampak trend bullish harga minyak (target $ 76.77: 38.2 Fibonacci retracement $142-33) mendorong kenaikan harga logam (target emas $ 1,033, Nikel & timah $ 17,000/ton) dan CPO (isu negatif penurunan impor dari India, dapat dibatasi oleh isu pemulihan ekonomi global) saat ini dan sejumlah sentimen positif dari kondisi ekonomi (trend penurunan inflasi dan suku bunga BI) diikuti capital inflow dari imbas penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan kemarin di Rp 10,050: target Rp 9,600) menjelang pilpres 8 Juli, dapat menopang kinerja IHSG hingga akhir bulan ini. Perkiraan positifnya hasil MAPPI saham BUMI hari ini dan laporan penurunan harga elpiji 3 kg sebesar 14% dapat menggairahkan sektor riil, dapat memberikan katalis positif kepada IHSG. Sementara faktor eksternal seperti komentar Paul Krugman* dan spekulasi Fed Beige Book, dapat memberikan support kepada Regionalm Asia.
Top Pick: BUMI ,ELTY, BSDE, PTBA, BMTR, INKP, PGAS, INCO, BBCA, CTRP, INKP, JPRS, HEXA, BBCA, BBNI.
Stock Picks:
* BMTR
* BSDE
Global Outlook
Trend bullish indeks saham regional Asia dan AS, dapat terganggu oleh isu kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan November (peluang 80% menjadi 0.50% dari 0-0.25% saat ini) dan agen rating Fitch IBCA yang memprediksikan resesi ekonomi Hong Kong yang lebih dalam, mahalnya valuasi indek saham regional (China, Hong Kong dan Jepang) diikuti overboughtnya harga komoditi (terutama minyak menjelang laporan crude inventory AS malam ini). Meski kmentar positif dari Paul Krugman dan spekulasi Fed Beige Book, Retail Sales AS (Kamis), seharusnya dapat menopang kinerja indeks regional.
Technical Analysis:
Seperti diperkirakan sebelumnya, momentum kenaikan IHSG masih strong, didukung oleh pola diagonal triangle, indikator teknikal ADX dan MACD masih trending up, penutupan diatas 2,054 (5-day MA)/1,994 (10-day MA), meski pola candle hanging man dan volume yang divergence dengan harga, dapat membatasi laju kenaikan ISHG hari ini. Projection 61.8% di 2,107 dapat menahan laju IHSG. Kondisi tersebut mendukung hitungan Elliot wave, IHSG berada dalam proses minute wave iv dalam minor wave impulse 5 untuk target 2,105 (projection 61.8 FE)/2,185 (upper line - diagonal triangle) - siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4 selama ditutup harian di atas 1,868 (uptrend line). Support di 2,052 (5-day MA)/2,045 (23.6 % FR).
Resistance: 2142.27/2122.32/2115.06/2107.81. PP 2082.42
Support : 2075.16/2067.90/2055.21/2042.51
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,070-2,140)
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IHSG kian mendekati level 2,100 kemarin, setelah saham dari sektor aneka industri pertambangan, perbankan dan property angkat IHSG ke level tertinggi sejak 4 September 2008. Sejumlah isu positif domestik dan eksternal memberikan momentum kenaikan IHSG, dimana kenaikan saham di IHSG terlihat menyebar ke saham lapis kedua dan lapis ketiga, karena saham lapis pertama terlihat overvalued dan overshoot pergerakan harganya. Revisi pertumbuhan ekonomi oleh pemerintah dan DPR kemarin, diikuti komentar ekonom pemenang hadiah Nobel Paul Krugman* bahwa ekonomi AS sepertinya akan pulih di bulan September, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk BEI yang secara keseluruhan masih relatif murah (PE) ketimbang indeks saham regional di Asia Tenggara dan Asia. IHSG menguat 36.647 poin (+1.782%), ditutup di 2,093.294, dengan nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 4.396 triliun. Investor asing membubukan net selling Rp 47.035 miliar kemarin, dibandingkan net buy Rp 47.035 miliar hari Senin(08/06).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pacific anjlok untuk hari ke-2, setelah agen rating Fitch IBCA memprediksikan resesi ekonomi Hong Kong yang lebih dalam (-9.1% y/y), memicu spekulasi rally saham selama 3 bulan telah overvalued dan melampaui prediksi pendapatan, mengacuhkan pengaruh komentar Paul Krugman*.
IHSG Outlook
Dampak trend bullish harga minyak (target $ 76.77: 38.2 Fibonacci retracement $142-33) mendorong kenaikan harga logam (target emas $ 1,033, Nikel & timah $ 17,000/ton) dan CPO (isu negatif penurunan impor dari India, dapat dibatasi oleh isu pemulihan ekonomi global) saat ini dan sejumlah sentimen positif dari kondisi ekonomi (trend penurunan inflasi dan suku bunga BI) diikuti capital inflow dari imbas penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan kemarin di Rp 10,050: target Rp 9,600) menjelang pilpres 8 Juli, dapat menopang kinerja IHSG hingga akhir bulan ini. Perkiraan positifnya hasil MAPPI saham BUMI hari ini dan laporan penurunan harga elpiji 3 kg sebesar 14% dapat menggairahkan sektor riil, dapat memberikan katalis positif kepada IHSG. Sementara faktor eksternal seperti komentar Paul Krugman* dan spekulasi Fed Beige Book, dapat memberikan support kepada Regionalm Asia.
Top Pick: BUMI ,ELTY, BSDE, PTBA, BMTR, INKP, PGAS, INCO, BBCA, CTRP, INKP, JPRS, HEXA, BBCA, BBNI.
Stock Picks:
* BMTR
* BSDE
Global Outlook
Trend bullish indeks saham regional Asia dan AS, dapat terganggu oleh isu kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan November (peluang 80% menjadi 0.50% dari 0-0.25% saat ini) dan agen rating Fitch IBCA yang memprediksikan resesi ekonomi Hong Kong yang lebih dalam, mahalnya valuasi indek saham regional (China, Hong Kong dan Jepang) diikuti overboughtnya harga komoditi (terutama minyak menjelang laporan crude inventory AS malam ini). Meski kmentar positif dari Paul Krugman dan spekulasi Fed Beige Book, Retail Sales AS (Kamis), seharusnya dapat menopang kinerja indeks regional.
Technical Analysis:
Seperti diperkirakan sebelumnya, momentum kenaikan IHSG masih strong, didukung oleh pola diagonal triangle, indikator teknikal ADX dan MACD masih trending up, penutupan diatas 2,054 (5-day MA)/1,994 (10-day MA), meski pola candle hanging man dan volume yang divergence dengan harga, dapat membatasi laju kenaikan ISHG hari ini. Projection 61.8% di 2,107 dapat menahan laju IHSG. Kondisi tersebut mendukung hitungan Elliot wave, IHSG berada dalam proses minute wave iv dalam minor wave impulse 5 untuk target 2,105 (projection 61.8 FE)/2,185 (upper line - diagonal triangle) - siklus koreksi intermediate wave 4 selama ditutup harian di atas 1,868 (uptrend line). Support di 2,052 (5-day MA)/2,045 (23.6 % FR).
Resistance: 2142.27/2122.32/2115.06/2107.81. PP 2082.42
Support : 2075.16/2067.90/2055.21/2042.51
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,070-2,140)
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Signal Teknikal Yang Negatif Membebani Kinerja Indeks Regional
SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9835 9690 9885 9590 9920 9765 10020 9565 9640 9740 9915 9990 10090
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek SSIM9 menunjukkan trend berbalik menjadi netral setelah ditutup dibawah middle line standard deviation di 9,856 untuk target 9704 (projeksi penurunan 100.0%)/9,577 (161.8%), didukung oleh indikator teknikal ADX mulai meningkat, stochastic menunjukkan dead cross dan MACD meski MACD masih menunjukkan bullish, kondisi tersebut menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Sementara pola uptrend channel mendukung kenaikan indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang, dengan resistance di 9920 (high 08/06)/9940 (projeksi 61.8%) dan 10,058 (projeksi 100.0 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9650-9950.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9630/9690 target 9,920 stop 50p, Sell 10,050 target 9800 stop 100p, Buy break 9950 target 10,050 stop 50p. Sell break 960 target 9220 stop 60p. Buy 9570 target 9800. (+70p)
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
177.30 175.8 178.9 174.8 180.4 176.6 181.4 172.6 174.6 175.9 179.2 181.2 182.5
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSM9 menunjukkan trend bullish telah berbalik menjadi netral untuk jangka pendek, karena tembusnya trendline support di 176.03 dan ditutup di 174.25, diikuti indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic yang bearish, meski ADX terlihat lemah, menunjukkan potensi penurunan indeks terbatas pada hari ini. Indeks masih berada dalam pola falling wedge dengan resistance line berada di 182.84 yang membatasi momentum kenaikan indeks dimana trend jangka menengah bullish, bilamana break target 185.28 (projeksi 100.0 FE)/190.46 (downtrend line). Perkiraan range hari ini: 171.00-177.50
Rekomendasi : Sell 176.40 target 173.40 stop 100p, buy break 176.70 target 180.00. Buy 167.50 target 174.50. Sell break 172.55 target 167.50 stop 100p. Sell 182.70 tgt 177. (+200+30p)
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18131 18047 18438 17947 18594 18203 18694 17525 17824 17977 18429 18728 18881
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks berbalik netral setelah menembus trendline support di 17,968 untuk target 17,509 (61.8 fibonacci retracement 18930-16634 & downward channel) selama berada di bawah 18323 (upper channel). Kondisi tersebut didukung oleh indikator teknikal stochastic yang bearish, MACD terkoreksi turun dan ADX terlihat lemah, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan momentum penurunan terbatas pada hari ini. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave motive (4) yang diperkirakan berakhir di 19,850 (wave 5???)dalam wave intermediate 3sub dalam sub cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17.900-18.500.
Rekomendasi : Buy 17,560 target 18400 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy break 17,180 target 17.960 stop 100 poin. Buy break 18210 target 18550 stop 100p. Sell 18650 target 18200 stop 50p. (-100p-60p)
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9835 9690 9885 9590 9920 9765 10020 9565 9640 9740 9915 9990 10090
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek SSIM9 menunjukkan trend berbalik menjadi netral setelah ditutup dibawah middle line standard deviation di 9,856 untuk target 9704 (projeksi penurunan 100.0%)/9,577 (161.8%), didukung oleh indikator teknikal ADX mulai meningkat, stochastic menunjukkan dead cross dan MACD meski MACD masih menunjukkan bullish, kondisi tersebut menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Sementara pola uptrend channel mendukung kenaikan indeks dalam beberapa hari mendatang, dengan resistance di 9920 (high 08/06)/9940 (projeksi 61.8%) dan 10,058 (projeksi 100.0 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9650-9950.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9630/9690 target 9,920 stop 50p, Sell 10,050 target 9800 stop 100p, Buy break 9950 target 10,050 stop 50p. Sell break 960 target 9220 stop 60p. Buy 9570 target 9800. (+70p)
KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
177.30 175.8 178.9 174.8 180.4 176.6 181.4 172.6 174.6 175.9 179.2 181.2 182.5
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSM9 menunjukkan trend bullish telah berbalik menjadi netral untuk jangka pendek, karena tembusnya trendline support di 176.03 dan ditutup di 174.25, diikuti indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic yang bearish, meski ADX terlihat lemah, menunjukkan potensi penurunan indeks terbatas pada hari ini. Indeks masih berada dalam pola falling wedge dengan resistance line berada di 182.84 yang membatasi momentum kenaikan indeks dimana trend jangka menengah bullish, bilamana break target 185.28 (projeksi 100.0 FE)/190.46 (downtrend line). Perkiraan range hari ini: 171.00-177.50
Rekomendasi : Sell 176.40 target 173.40 stop 100p, buy break 176.70 target 180.00. Buy 167.50 target 174.50. Sell break 172.55 target 167.50 stop 100p. Sell 182.70 tgt 177. (+200+30p)
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18131 18047 18438 17947 18594 18203 18694 17525 17824 17977 18429 18728 18881
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks berbalik netral setelah menembus trendline support di 17,968 untuk target 17,509 (61.8 fibonacci retracement 18930-16634 & downward channel) selama berada di bawah 18323 (upper channel). Kondisi tersebut didukung oleh indikator teknikal stochastic yang bearish, MACD terkoreksi turun dan ADX terlihat lemah, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan momentum penurunan terbatas pada hari ini. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave motive (4) yang diperkirakan berakhir di 19,850 (wave 5???)dalam wave intermediate 3sub dalam sub cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17.900-18.500.
Rekomendasi : Buy 17,560 target 18400 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy break 17,180 target 17.960 stop 100 poin. Buy break 18210 target 18550 stop 100p. Sell 18650 target 18200 stop 50p. (-100p-60p)
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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil continues to stay in tight range below 70.32 today and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, note that even enough crude oil struggles to take out 55 weeks and 55 months EMAs so far, with diminishing upside momentum, there is no confirmation of topping yet. Further rally is still mildly in favor and sustained trading above the mentioned EMAs will path the way to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next.
On the downside, however, note the possibility of a small head and shoulder top (with top at 70.32. Break of 66.79 will indicate that this reversal pattern is completed and will turn short term outlook bearish for at least a test of 59.61 support. Break there will confirm that rise from 73.83 is finished too and bring deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, the question remains on whether the rise from 33.2 represent reversal in trend in crude oil, or it's merely a correction in the larger down trend. But in any case, rise from 33.2 should still be in force as long as 56.07 support holds. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will pave the way to stronger rally to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, below 56.07 will be the first signal that rebound from 33.2 has completed and will turn focus to trend line support (now at 53.59) for confirmation.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil continues to stay in tight range below 70.32 today and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, note that even enough crude oil struggles to take out 55 weeks and 55 months EMAs so far, with diminishing upside momentum, there is no confirmation of topping yet. Further rally is still mildly in favor and sustained trading above the mentioned EMAs will path the way to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next.
On the downside, however, note the possibility of a small head and shoulder top (with top at 70.32. Break of 66.79 will indicate that this reversal pattern is completed and will turn short term outlook bearish for at least a test of 59.61 support. Break there will confirm that rise from 73.83 is finished too and bring deeper decline.
In the bigger picture, the question remains on whether the rise from 33.2 represent reversal in trend in crude oil, or it's merely a correction in the larger down trend. But in any case, rise from 33.2 should still be in force as long as 56.07 support holds. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will pave the way to stronger rally to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, below 56.07 will be the first signal that rebound from 33.2 has completed and will turn focus to trend line support (now at 53.59) for confirmation.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Jun 09 09 06:34 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Intraday bias in Gold remains on the downside with 961.1 minor resistance intact. As mentione dbefore, a short term top should be formed at 992.1 and break of 915.2 support will confirm this case and bring deeper decline. On the upside above 961.1 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But break of 992.1 resistance is needed to indicate that recent rally has resumed. Otherwise, risk is now on the downside.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has possibly completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 915.2 support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Intraday bias in Gold remains on the downside with 961.1 minor resistance intact. As mentione dbefore, a short term top should be formed at 992.1 and break of 915.2 support will confirm this case and bring deeper decline. On the upside above 961.1 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But break of 992.1 resistance is needed to indicate that recent rally has resumed. Otherwise, risk is now on the downside.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has possibly completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 915.2 support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Eur/Usd: Bearish Wave Count, S&P Futures: Wave 4 top
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Eur/Usd: Bearish Wave Count
4 Hour Chart trend: Short. Main price points: 1.3930, and 1.4337. Looking for: Wave III) targets
The dollar is trading higher against the euro after a volatile turning point on Friday in reaction to the NFP report. We can see that the 76.4% retracement (1.4719 – 1.2456) held very well in the past week, with prices already trading 300 pips below it. The market has also broken through the blue support line, that we were also monitoring for a bearish wave count confirmation. The recent break at the 1.3930 area should lead us into a lower wave III) target area which is shown at 261.8% of the wave II) extension. Traders may be looking for a corrective wave IV) in that area, before the market slides lower. Our directional movement indicator is in a short mode, as the +DI (red line) is trading above the ADX (green line), while the -DI is trading below ADX and +DI.
S&P Futures: Wave 4 top
4 Hour Chart trend: Short. Main price points: 930, and 957. Looking for: Break through 930 support.
S&P futures traded perfectly into our 950-960 resistance area on Friday after the break of red wave III) highs. The market has made a powerful decline from that area, which suggests that wave V) of black C of blue 4 is complete. Traders, however, still need to wait on a down-trend confirmation which will appear once 922 support is taken out. Then we will be looking for a move lower to wave B lows during the next few weeks, if the current 957 highs manage to hold.
Eur/Usd: Bearish Wave Count
4 Hour Chart trend: Short. Main price points: 1.3930, and 1.4337. Looking for: Wave III) targets
The dollar is trading higher against the euro after a volatile turning point on Friday in reaction to the NFP report. We can see that the 76.4% retracement (1.4719 – 1.2456) held very well in the past week, with prices already trading 300 pips below it. The market has also broken through the blue support line, that we were also monitoring for a bearish wave count confirmation. The recent break at the 1.3930 area should lead us into a lower wave III) target area which is shown at 261.8% of the wave II) extension. Traders may be looking for a corrective wave IV) in that area, before the market slides lower. Our directional movement indicator is in a short mode, as the +DI (red line) is trading above the ADX (green line), while the -DI is trading below ADX and +DI.
S&P Futures: Wave 4 top
4 Hour Chart trend: Short. Main price points: 930, and 957. Looking for: Break through 930 support.
S&P futures traded perfectly into our 950-960 resistance area on Friday after the break of red wave III) highs. The market has made a powerful decline from that area, which suggests that wave V) of black C of blue 4 is complete. Traders, however, still need to wait on a down-trend confirmation which will appear once 922 support is taken out. Then we will be looking for a move lower to wave B lows during the next few weeks, if the current 957 highs manage to hold.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex & DJIA
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Trying to base against the 26-day moving average and retracement support. Yesterday's bounce was decent but not conclusive so allow for more of the same today.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.3890; stop below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4020, then 1.4245. Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3853 " 1.3938
1.38 1.4023
1.3790/1.3775* 1.4050/1.4065*
1.3725 1.41
1.3600* 1.417
GBPUSD
Comment: Bouncing smartly from retracement and trendline support, and the 26-day moving average which all cluster around 1.5800, despite an appalling political situation. Two-way price action should keep the bid tone to implied volatility.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6035, adding to 1.5855; stop below 1.5800. First target 1.6100, then 1.6200. Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.5985 " 1.6105*
1.5800* 1.6155
1.575 1.62
1.57 1.6245
1.5514* 1.6435
USDJPY
Comment: Hovering above the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud', which gets very thin at the end of next week, the summer solstice. Expect more cautious random small swings today and probably all week. Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 98.10, adding to 98.55; stop above 99.25. First target 97.65 then 96.00
Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
98.00 " 98.58
97.87 98.85/99.00*
97.57 99.49/99.60
97 99.69/99.80*
96 100
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3842, 1.3826 and 1.3792(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3767, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3719. Break of the latter would result in 1.3680. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3663. Continuation will give 1.3635. Today's resistance: - 1.3953, 1.3997 and 1.4036(main). Break would give 1.4079, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4126. Break of the latter would result in 1.4153. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4176. Continuation will give 1.4220.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 97.58 and 97.42(main). Break would bring 97.23, where correction is possible. Then 96.90, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 96.77. If a strong impulse, we would see 96.40. Continuation would give 96.17. Today's resistance: - 98.58, 98.78 and 99.26(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 99.47, where also a correction may be. Then 9977. If a strong impulse, we would see 99.93 Continuation will give 100.24.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: -8724.32, 8673.70, 8634.17 and 8561.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8495.80, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44. Today's resistance: - 8808.80 and 8842.72(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8858.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8887.46, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8910.00. Continuation would bring 8927.28
EURUSD
Comment: Trying to base against the 26-day moving average and retracement support. Yesterday's bounce was decent but not conclusive so allow for more of the same today.
Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.3890; stop below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4020, then 1.4245. Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3853 " 1.3938
1.38 1.4023
1.3790/1.3775* 1.4050/1.4065*
1.3725 1.41
1.3600* 1.417
GBPUSD
Comment: Bouncing smartly from retracement and trendline support, and the 26-day moving average which all cluster around 1.5800, despite an appalling political situation. Two-way price action should keep the bid tone to implied volatility.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6035, adding to 1.5855; stop below 1.5800. First target 1.6100, then 1.6200. Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.5985 " 1.6105*
1.5800* 1.6155
1.575 1.62
1.57 1.6245
1.5514* 1.6435
USDJPY
Comment: Hovering above the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud', which gets very thin at the end of next week, the summer solstice. Expect more cautious random small swings today and probably all week. Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 98.10, adding to 98.55; stop above 99.25. First target 97.65 then 96.00
Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
98.00 " 98.58
97.87 98.85/99.00*
97.57 99.49/99.60
97 99.69/99.80*
96 100
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3842, 1.3826 and 1.3792(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3767, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3719. Break of the latter would result in 1.3680. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3663. Continuation will give 1.3635. Today's resistance: - 1.3953, 1.3997 and 1.4036(main). Break would give 1.4079, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4126. Break of the latter would result in 1.4153. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4176. Continuation will give 1.4220.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 97.58 and 97.42(main). Break would bring 97.23, where correction is possible. Then 96.90, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 96.77. If a strong impulse, we would see 96.40. Continuation would give 96.17. Today's resistance: - 98.58, 98.78 and 99.26(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 99.47, where also a correction may be. Then 9977. If a strong impulse, we would see 99.93 Continuation will give 100.24.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: -8724.32, 8673.70, 8634.17 and 8561.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8495.80, where correction also can be. Then follows 8463.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8426.22. Continuation will bring 8392.44. Today's resistance: - 8808.80 and 8842.72(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8858.37, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8887.46, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8910.00. Continuation would bring 8927.28
Trend Kenaikan Saham & Komoditi Global Menahan Momentum Penguatan USD
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
81.01 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.3870 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Penguatan dolar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia seperti euro, yen, pound dan aussie tertahan kemarin, setelah penguatan pasar saham dan komoditi global semalam, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang mata uang dolar AS. Investor kembali berani beresiko setelah ekonom pemenang piagam Nobel Paul Krugman mengatakan ekonomi AS akan pulih dari resesi di bulan September, mendorong spekulasi bank sentral AS akan meningkatkan suku bunga di akhir tahun ini. Indeks USD sempat mencapai level tertinggi 81.466 kemarin, level tertinggi sejak 20 Mei. Pasar suku bunga berjangka mengantisipasi 80% peluang the Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga menjadi 0.50% di bulan November, peluang 57% the Fed akan menakkan suku bunga menjadi 0.75%, dan yield Treasury AS 2-tahun melonjak ke level tertinggi sejak November 2008, dari sentimen yang kuat dari data payroll bulan Mei yang dirilis Jumat lalu. Dolar juga mendapatkan keuntungan dari lemahnya sentimen mata uang euro, setelah rating kredit Irlandia diturunkan oleh agen rating S&P menjadi AA dari AA+ karena memburuknya keuangan publik, hanya 3 bulan setelah kehilangan status rating AAA. Meski pound sterling berhasil rebound terhadap dolar setelah Perdana Menteri Gordon Brown mengukuhkan kepemimpinannya. Tingginya yield obligasi AS mungkin akan menghambat pemulihan keuntungan korporat AS dan meragukan stabilnya rally saham AS, dapat menguatkan dolar AS lebih lanjut, di tengah minimnya data ekonomi dari AS hari ini.
Euro menguat dari level terendah 1-pekan terhadap dolar, karena daya tarik untuk euro meningkat setelah pasar saham Wall Street menguat dan harga komoditi menguat semalam. Euro sempat menguat ke level tertinggi 1.4001 semalam, rebound dari level terendah $ 1.3806 di sesi pasar Etopa setelah spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS sebelum akhir tahun berkat imbas positifnya laporan payroll AS dan laporan agen rating S&P menurunkan rating kredit Irlandia menjadi untuk kedua kali di tahun ini menjadi AA dari AA+ kemarin. Penurunan rating mencerminkan kekhawatiran beban finansial Irlandia yang mensupport sistem perbankan dan munculnya kekhawatiran mengenai keuangan publik negara di Eropa. Spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS kian meningkat, setelah pemenang hadiah Nobel Paul Krugman mengatakan ekonomi AS akan pulih dari resesi di bulan September dan yield Treasury 2-tahun AS meningkat ke level tertinggi sejak November 2008, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS. Minimnya data ekonomi dari Eropa pada pekan ini, akan mendorong pasar mengamati perkembangan laporan ekonomi AS, seperti Fed Beige Book pada hari Rabu, Retail Sales AS hari Kamis dapat memberikan pandangan yang positif untuk euro karena perkiraan pemulihan ekonomi global dapat meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi global yang berpotensi menghasilkan yield yang lebih tinggi.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
98.00 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6010 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen menguat terhadap dolar dan euro di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah penguatan saham Wall Street dan sentimen negatif di Eropa, meningkatkan permintaan untuk mata uang yen. Penguatan indeks saham Nikkei 225 stock average di awal sesi pasar Tokyo hari ini sempat menguatkan yen terhadap dolar ke level tertinggi Y 97.88, meski akhirnya terkoreksi kembali, setelah pasar mengamati spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS sebelum akhir tahun berkat lebih baik dari perkiraan data payroll AS yang dirilis Jumat lalu dan komentar ekonom pemenang piagam Nobel Paul Krugman mengatakan ekonomi AS akan pulih dari resesi di bulan September, masih memberikan support kepada dolar terhadap yen. Yen melemah ke level terendah Y 98.85 terhadap dolar kemarin, sebelum ditutup di 98.36, melemah 33 pips dari penutupan sebelumnya. Minimnya data ekonomi dari Jepang, mendorong investor dan trader akan mengamati perkembangan ekonomi AS, bilamana laporan Fed Beige Book dan Retai Sales AS yang dirilis Rabu dan Kamis, memberikan signal pemulihan ekonomi AS lebih lanjut, berpotensi melemahkan yen terhadap dolar lebih lanjut. Posisi spekulan dan hedge fund di pasar CFTC pekan lalu mendukung pelemahan yen terhadap dolar AS pada awal pekan ini.
Pound sterling berhasil mengatasi tekanan dari dolar AS, berhasil rebound dari sesi perdagangan New York hingga sesi perdagangan Asia hari ini, karena penguatan saham Wall Street semalam berkat komentar positif dari ekonom pemenang hadiah Nobel Paul Krugman bahwa ekonomi AS akan pulih dari resesi di bulan September dan laporan Perdana Menteri Inggris Gordon Brown tetap mempertahankan jabatannya mengacuhkan tekanan untk mundur meski 6 menteri di kabinetnya mengundurkan diri di pekan lalu, akibat skandal penggunaan dana pemerintah untuk keperluan pribadi oleh sejumlah anggota parlemen Inggris. Pound kembali mendapatkan sentimen positif dari laporan Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors pada hari ini bahwa keseimbangan terkecil diantara agen dan surveyor real estate Inggris dalam 18 bulan terakhir melaporkan penurunan harga. Nilai rumah yang merosot melampaui nilai yang meningkat sebesar 44.1 persen poin, catatan terbaik sejak November 2007. kondisi tersebut memberikan signal pasar perumahan Inggris mulai stabil di bulan Mei. Sore ini, Inggris juga akan merilis data DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y April, dimana dapat memberikan support kepada GBP-USD.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,070 13,095 (10/2008) - 0.7877 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) pekan lalu mendapatkan sentimen positif dari spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global, meredam permintaan untuk dolar dan meningkatkan daya tarik rupiah, mendorong capital inflow ke pasar modal Indonesia, sehingga menguatkan KIE ke level tertinggi 9,910 (hari Jumat 05/06). Rupiah terkoreksi terhadap dolar hingga mencapai level terendah Rp 10,090 hari ini, berkat munculnya spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS komentar ekonom Paul Krugman melihat ekonomi AS akan pulih di September, menurunkan daya tarik untuk rupiah. Menteri keuangan Sri Mulyani kemarin mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi akan tumbuh 4-4.5% di tahun ini. Sementara DPR mengatakan, pertumbuhan ekonomi mungkin akan meningkat di 2010 antara 5-6%, inflasi sekitar 4-6%, harga minyak di $50-70. Potensi pelemahan rupiah terbatas karena kuatnya inflow dan perbedaan tingkat suku bunga Indonesia-AS, target Rp 9800 pekan ini.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) melemah untuk hari ke-3 terhadap dolar karena jatuhnya pasar saham Asia, menurunkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih tinggi seperti saham dan komoditi. Aussie melanjutkan penurunan dalam periode terlama sejak April setelah laporan industri menunjukkan iklan tenaga kerja di koran dan internet anjlok ke rekor terendah dan indeks kondisi bisnis anjlok. Aussie dan kiwi mungkin akan melanjutkan penurunan di pekan ini sebelum sebuah laporan tenaga kerja Australia dirilis hari Kamis akan menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran meningkat ke 5.7%, menyamai level tertinggi sejak 2003. Spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun dan komentar ekonom peraih hadiah Nobel Paul Krugman bahwa ekonomi AS sepertinya akan pulih dari resesi di bulan September, masih membebani kinerja aussie dan kiwi hari ini.
Technical Analysis
(-50p) EUR-USD masih mempertahankan trend bullish, setelah penurunan kemarin tertahan di support line 1.3804, untuk kembali rebound ke target 1.4010 (projeksi 4-jam 100.0 FE)/1.4131 (161.8 FE), mendukung indikator teknikal ADX yang terkoreksi turun menunjukkan lmomentum penurunan kemarin terbatas, stochastic crossing di teritorial oversold dan MACD oversold, seharusnya menunjukkan bahwa potensi penurunan terbatas dan euro dolar bottom out di 1.3804 sesuai dengan hitungan Euro saat ini telah menyelesaikan wave a dalam proses wave b di kisaran 1.4130/1.4200 (downtrend line) dalam subwave intermediate 4. Buy 1.3895 target di 1.4130 stop 50p, buy break 1.4010 target 1.4130 stop 100p, Sell 1.4200 target 1.4000 stop 50p. Sell break 1.3800 target 1.3700 stop 50p.
(0p) Dalam chart 4 jam USDJPY masih mempertahankan trend bullish selama bertahan di atas 97.42 (trendline support) dalam formasi ascending triangle untuk target 99.30 (downtrend line)/projeksi 161.8 fibonacci expansion di 99.90. Indikator teknikal ADX terkoreksi turun, stochastic dead cross dan MACD masih uptrend seharusnya masih menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas. Support berada 97.81 (100.0 FE)/97.42. Buy 97.50 target 99.30 stop 97.00, sell break 97.00 target 95.50 stop 50p. Sell 99.30 target 98.00, sell 99.90 target 98.00.
(+130-60p). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish setelah bertahan di atas 50.0 fibonacci retracement dari 1.6661-1.4943) untuk rebound ke target projection 61.8% di 1.6346/1.6682 (100.0% FE). Indikaro teknikal ADX 4 jam menunjukkan momentum penurunan harga sejak kemarin terbatas, Stochastic crossing up, MACD juga rebound dari oversold, seharusnya masih mendkung potensi kenakan pada hari ini. Jika GBP-USD ditutup dibawah 1.5845 hari ini, dapat memutarbalikkan trend menjadi bearish target 1.5519. Analhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifisa EW menunjukkan koreksi a telah selesai di 1.5801 untuk mengarah ke wave koreksi b target 1.6342/1.6680. Buy 1.6100 target 1.6230 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6240 target 1.6350 stop 100p. Sell break 1.5980 target 1.5840 stop 50p. Sell 1.6340 target 1.6100 stop 50p. Sell break 1.5840 target 1.5560.
(-50p) AUD-USD masih mempetahankan trend bullish selama ditutup diatas 50.0% Fibonacci retracement 0.8286-0.7450), untuk target 0.8000 (resistance line)/0.8151 (projection 61.8%). Indikator teknikal menunjukkan ADX terkoreksi turun, MACD dan stochastic masih berada dalam teritorial negatif, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan (rebound) terbatas hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish di atas ascending triangle). Elliot wave menunjukkan koreksi minor wave 4 dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy break 0.7983 target 0.8151 stop 100p, Sell 0.8150 target 0.8050 stop 50p. Buy 0.7830 target 0.8000, sell break 0.7820 target 0.7700 stop 50p.
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81.01 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.3870 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Penguatan dolar AS terhadap mata uang utama dunia seperti euro, yen, pound dan aussie tertahan kemarin, setelah penguatan pasar saham dan komoditi global semalam, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang mata uang dolar AS. Investor kembali berani beresiko setelah ekonom pemenang piagam Nobel Paul Krugman mengatakan ekonomi AS akan pulih dari resesi di bulan September, mendorong spekulasi bank sentral AS akan meningkatkan suku bunga di akhir tahun ini. Indeks USD sempat mencapai level tertinggi 81.466 kemarin, level tertinggi sejak 20 Mei. Pasar suku bunga berjangka mengantisipasi 80% peluang the Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga menjadi 0.50% di bulan November, peluang 57% the Fed akan menakkan suku bunga menjadi 0.75%, dan yield Treasury AS 2-tahun melonjak ke level tertinggi sejak November 2008, dari sentimen yang kuat dari data payroll bulan Mei yang dirilis Jumat lalu. Dolar juga mendapatkan keuntungan dari lemahnya sentimen mata uang euro, setelah rating kredit Irlandia diturunkan oleh agen rating S&P menjadi AA dari AA+ karena memburuknya keuangan publik, hanya 3 bulan setelah kehilangan status rating AAA. Meski pound sterling berhasil rebound terhadap dolar setelah Perdana Menteri Gordon Brown mengukuhkan kepemimpinannya. Tingginya yield obligasi AS mungkin akan menghambat pemulihan keuntungan korporat AS dan meragukan stabilnya rally saham AS, dapat menguatkan dolar AS lebih lanjut, di tengah minimnya data ekonomi dari AS hari ini.
Euro menguat dari level terendah 1-pekan terhadap dolar, karena daya tarik untuk euro meningkat setelah pasar saham Wall Street menguat dan harga komoditi menguat semalam. Euro sempat menguat ke level tertinggi 1.4001 semalam, rebound dari level terendah $ 1.3806 di sesi pasar Etopa setelah spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS sebelum akhir tahun berkat imbas positifnya laporan payroll AS dan laporan agen rating S&P menurunkan rating kredit Irlandia menjadi untuk kedua kali di tahun ini menjadi AA dari AA+ kemarin. Penurunan rating mencerminkan kekhawatiran beban finansial Irlandia yang mensupport sistem perbankan dan munculnya kekhawatiran mengenai keuangan publik negara di Eropa. Spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS kian meningkat, setelah pemenang hadiah Nobel Paul Krugman mengatakan ekonomi AS akan pulih dari resesi di bulan September dan yield Treasury 2-tahun AS meningkat ke level tertinggi sejak November 2008, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar AS. Minimnya data ekonomi dari Eropa pada pekan ini, akan mendorong pasar mengamati perkembangan laporan ekonomi AS, seperti Fed Beige Book pada hari Rabu, Retail Sales AS hari Kamis dapat memberikan pandangan yang positif untuk euro karena perkiraan pemulihan ekonomi global dapat meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi global yang berpotensi menghasilkan yield yang lebih tinggi.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
98.00 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.6010 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen menguat terhadap dolar dan euro di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah penguatan saham Wall Street dan sentimen negatif di Eropa, meningkatkan permintaan untuk mata uang yen. Penguatan indeks saham Nikkei 225 stock average di awal sesi pasar Tokyo hari ini sempat menguatkan yen terhadap dolar ke level tertinggi Y 97.88, meski akhirnya terkoreksi kembali, setelah pasar mengamati spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS sebelum akhir tahun berkat lebih baik dari perkiraan data payroll AS yang dirilis Jumat lalu dan komentar ekonom pemenang piagam Nobel Paul Krugman mengatakan ekonomi AS akan pulih dari resesi di bulan September, masih memberikan support kepada dolar terhadap yen. Yen melemah ke level terendah Y 98.85 terhadap dolar kemarin, sebelum ditutup di 98.36, melemah 33 pips dari penutupan sebelumnya. Minimnya data ekonomi dari Jepang, mendorong investor dan trader akan mengamati perkembangan ekonomi AS, bilamana laporan Fed Beige Book dan Retai Sales AS yang dirilis Rabu dan Kamis, memberikan signal pemulihan ekonomi AS lebih lanjut, berpotensi melemahkan yen terhadap dolar lebih lanjut. Posisi spekulan dan hedge fund di pasar CFTC pekan lalu mendukung pelemahan yen terhadap dolar AS pada awal pekan ini.
Pound sterling berhasil mengatasi tekanan dari dolar AS, berhasil rebound dari sesi perdagangan New York hingga sesi perdagangan Asia hari ini, karena penguatan saham Wall Street semalam berkat komentar positif dari ekonom pemenang hadiah Nobel Paul Krugman bahwa ekonomi AS akan pulih dari resesi di bulan September dan laporan Perdana Menteri Inggris Gordon Brown tetap mempertahankan jabatannya mengacuhkan tekanan untk mundur meski 6 menteri di kabinetnya mengundurkan diri di pekan lalu, akibat skandal penggunaan dana pemerintah untuk keperluan pribadi oleh sejumlah anggota parlemen Inggris. Pound kembali mendapatkan sentimen positif dari laporan Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors pada hari ini bahwa keseimbangan terkecil diantara agen dan surveyor real estate Inggris dalam 18 bulan terakhir melaporkan penurunan harga. Nilai rumah yang merosot melampaui nilai yang meningkat sebesar 44.1 persen poin, catatan terbaik sejak November 2007. kondisi tersebut memberikan signal pasar perumahan Inggris mulai stabil di bulan Mei. Sore ini, Inggris juga akan merilis data DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y April, dimana dapat memberikan support kepada GBP-USD.
KIE 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
10,070 13,095 (10/2008) - 0.7877 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Kontrak Indeks Emas (USD-IDR) pekan lalu mendapatkan sentimen positif dari spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global, meredam permintaan untuk dolar dan meningkatkan daya tarik rupiah, mendorong capital inflow ke pasar modal Indonesia, sehingga menguatkan KIE ke level tertinggi 9,910 (hari Jumat 05/06). Rupiah terkoreksi terhadap dolar hingga mencapai level terendah Rp 10,090 hari ini, berkat munculnya spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS komentar ekonom Paul Krugman melihat ekonomi AS akan pulih di September, menurunkan daya tarik untuk rupiah. Menteri keuangan Sri Mulyani kemarin mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi akan tumbuh 4-4.5% di tahun ini. Sementara DPR mengatakan, pertumbuhan ekonomi mungkin akan meningkat di 2010 antara 5-6%, inflasi sekitar 4-6%, harga minyak di $50-70. Potensi pelemahan rupiah terbatas karena kuatnya inflow dan perbedaan tingkat suku bunga Indonesia-AS, target Rp 9800 pekan ini.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) melemah untuk hari ke-3 terhadap dolar karena jatuhnya pasar saham Asia, menurunkan permintaan untuk aset yang lebih tinggi seperti saham dan komoditi. Aussie melanjutkan penurunan dalam periode terlama sejak April setelah laporan industri menunjukkan iklan tenaga kerja di koran dan internet anjlok ke rekor terendah dan indeks kondisi bisnis anjlok. Aussie dan kiwi mungkin akan melanjutkan penurunan di pekan ini sebelum sebuah laporan tenaga kerja Australia dirilis hari Kamis akan menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran meningkat ke 5.7%, menyamai level tertinggi sejak 2003. Spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun dan komentar ekonom peraih hadiah Nobel Paul Krugman bahwa ekonomi AS sepertinya akan pulih dari resesi di bulan September, masih membebani kinerja aussie dan kiwi hari ini.
Technical Analysis
(-50p) EUR-USD masih mempertahankan trend bullish, setelah penurunan kemarin tertahan di support line 1.3804, untuk kembali rebound ke target 1.4010 (projeksi 4-jam 100.0 FE)/1.4131 (161.8 FE), mendukung indikator teknikal ADX yang terkoreksi turun menunjukkan lmomentum penurunan kemarin terbatas, stochastic crossing di teritorial oversold dan MACD oversold, seharusnya menunjukkan bahwa potensi penurunan terbatas dan euro dolar bottom out di 1.3804 sesuai dengan hitungan Euro saat ini telah menyelesaikan wave a dalam proses wave b di kisaran 1.4130/1.4200 (downtrend line) dalam subwave intermediate 4. Buy 1.3895 target di 1.4130 stop 50p, buy break 1.4010 target 1.4130 stop 100p, Sell 1.4200 target 1.4000 stop 50p. Sell break 1.3800 target 1.3700 stop 50p.
(0p) Dalam chart 4 jam USDJPY masih mempertahankan trend bullish selama bertahan di atas 97.42 (trendline support) dalam formasi ascending triangle untuk target 99.30 (downtrend line)/projeksi 161.8 fibonacci expansion di 99.90. Indikator teknikal ADX terkoreksi turun, stochastic dead cross dan MACD masih uptrend seharusnya masih menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas. Support berada 97.81 (100.0 FE)/97.42. Buy 97.50 target 99.30 stop 97.00, sell break 97.00 target 95.50 stop 50p. Sell 99.30 target 98.00, sell 99.90 target 98.00.
(+130-60p). GBPUSD masih mempertahankan trend bullish setelah bertahan di atas 50.0 fibonacci retracement dari 1.6661-1.4943) untuk rebound ke target projection 61.8% di 1.6346/1.6682 (100.0% FE). Indikaro teknikal ADX 4 jam menunjukkan momentum penurunan harga sejak kemarin terbatas, Stochastic crossing up, MACD juga rebound dari oversold, seharusnya masih mendkung potensi kenakan pada hari ini. Jika GBP-USD ditutup dibawah 1.5845 hari ini, dapat memutarbalikkan trend menjadi bearish target 1.5519. Analhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifisa EW menunjukkan koreksi a telah selesai di 1.5801 untuk mengarah ke wave koreksi b target 1.6342/1.6680. Buy 1.6100 target 1.6230 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6240 target 1.6350 stop 100p. Sell break 1.5980 target 1.5840 stop 50p. Sell 1.6340 target 1.6100 stop 50p. Sell break 1.5840 target 1.5560.
(-50p) AUD-USD masih mempetahankan trend bullish selama ditutup diatas 50.0% Fibonacci retracement 0.8286-0.7450), untuk target 0.8000 (resistance line)/0.8151 (projection 61.8%). Indikator teknikal menunjukkan ADX terkoreksi turun, MACD dan stochastic masih berada dalam teritorial negatif, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan laju kenaikan (rebound) terbatas hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish di atas ascending triangle). Elliot wave menunjukkan koreksi minor wave 4 dalam wave intermediate 3. Buy break 0.7983 target 0.8151 stop 100p, Sell 0.8150 target 0.8050 stop 50p. Buy 0.7830 target 0.8000, sell break 0.7820 target 0.7700 stop 50p.
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Monday, June 8, 2009
Weekly Forex Technical Strategist
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy
EURUSD - Rejection Candle Halts Recent Medium Term Upmove.
EURUSD- Although EUR retains its broader medium term uptrend triggered off the 1.2456 level in early Mar'09, its price action the past week has halted that uptrend temporarily having printede a rejection candle and closed lower on Friday. Bias remains to the downside for the continuation of that nearer term downtrend initiated at the 1.4339 level towards the 1.3793 level ,its May 28'09 high and then the 1.3738 level, representing its Mar 19'09 high. These key levels are expected to reverse roles and provide support there by preserving the pair's medium term uptrend. A break below there though not expected at the current levels will open the door for further lower prices targeting the 1.3424 level, its May 18'09 low. Its weekly RSI has turned lower supporting this view. To the topside, recovery if seen should initially target the 1.4267 level, its Jun 05'09 high followed by the 1.4339 level, representing its Jun 03'09 high. A cut through there will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 1.4867 level, its Sept 22'08 high.On the whole,while we retain our medium term bais on the pair, it remains pressured to the upside neearer term.
Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Bearish
Short Term - Bullish
Medium Term -Mixed
Performance in %:
Past Week: -1.13%
Past Month: +6.89%
Past Quarter: -3.33%
Year To Date: -0.03
Weekly Range:
High -1.4339
Low -1.3933
GBPUSD - Weakening On Rejection Of Higher Level Prices.
GBPUSD- A cap was seen on the pair's medium term run to the upside the past week, driving GBP sharply lower to close at 1.5981 and printing a shooting star candle( a top reversal signal). With that said and coupled with the fact that its daily studies have turned lower, a continuation of its nearer term downside is envisaged towards the 1.5724 level, its Dec 17'08 high. We expect the latter level to revert to support and turn the pair higher gain but if that fails, a run at the 1.5374 level, its Jan 08'09 high will follow where a break and hold below there will further downside weakness towards its May 18'09 low at 1.5117. However, if a recovery is seen, then its psycho level residing at the 1.6000 level will be aimed at initially with break above there allowing for further gains towards the 1.6399 level, its Nov 03'08 high and then its 2009 high resting at 1.6663.Its medium term upside will be triggered on a loss of the latter opening up for more upside gains. All in all, GBP has paused its medium term uptrend and now looks to head to the downside nearer term
Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Bearish
Short Term -Bullish
Medium Term -Mixed
Performance in %:
Past Week:: +1.28%
past Month: +9.39%
Past Quarter: -1.86%
Year To Date:: +9.22%
Weekly Range:
High -1.6663
Low -1.5941
USDJPY: Recovery Puts USDJPY Back Above The 97.24 Level.
USDJPY- As recovery higher continued the past week, USDJPY broke through its daily falling channel and its key resistance at the 97.24 level, its May 28'09 high to close the week higher at 98.66. This is coming on the back of a recovery triggered off the 93.89 level, its May 21'09 low following its weakness started at the 101.45 level, its April 06'09 high. Having broken and held above the mentioned resistance levels, odds now point to higher prices towards the its May 07'09 high at 99.74 with a loss of there putting the pair in position for further upside gains towards the 101.45 level, its April 06'09 high. Beyond there will resume the USDJPY medium term uptrend on hold since early April towards the 103.07 level, its Oct 14'09 high. Its weekly RSI has turned higher suggesting further upside gains. On the downside, its channel breakout point currently at 98.14 will come in as the initial support followed by its May 28'09 high at 97.24.Additional lower prices will aim at the 93.89 level. On the whole, recovery offensive invalidating key resistance levels, risk has now turned to the upside.
Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Bearish
Short Term -Neutral
Medium Term -Bearish
Performance in %:
Past Week: +3.38%
Past Month: -3.60%
Past Quarter: +9.53%
Year To Date: +8.79%
Weekly Range:
High -98.89
Low -94.45
Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
www.fxtechstrategy.com
EURUSD - Rejection Candle Halts Recent Medium Term Upmove.
EURUSD- Although EUR retains its broader medium term uptrend triggered off the 1.2456 level in early Mar'09, its price action the past week has halted that uptrend temporarily having printede a rejection candle and closed lower on Friday. Bias remains to the downside for the continuation of that nearer term downtrend initiated at the 1.4339 level towards the 1.3793 level ,its May 28'09 high and then the 1.3738 level, representing its Mar 19'09 high. These key levels are expected to reverse roles and provide support there by preserving the pair's medium term uptrend. A break below there though not expected at the current levels will open the door for further lower prices targeting the 1.3424 level, its May 18'09 low. Its weekly RSI has turned lower supporting this view. To the topside, recovery if seen should initially target the 1.4267 level, its Jun 05'09 high followed by the 1.4339 level, representing its Jun 03'09 high. A cut through there will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 1.4867 level, its Sept 22'08 high.On the whole,while we retain our medium term bais on the pair, it remains pressured to the upside neearer term.
Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Bearish
Short Term - Bullish
Medium Term -Mixed
Performance in %:
Past Week: -1.13%
Past Month: +6.89%
Past Quarter: -3.33%
Year To Date: -0.03
Weekly Range:
High -1.4339
Low -1.3933
GBPUSD - Weakening On Rejection Of Higher Level Prices.
GBPUSD- A cap was seen on the pair's medium term run to the upside the past week, driving GBP sharply lower to close at 1.5981 and printing a shooting star candle( a top reversal signal). With that said and coupled with the fact that its daily studies have turned lower, a continuation of its nearer term downside is envisaged towards the 1.5724 level, its Dec 17'08 high. We expect the latter level to revert to support and turn the pair higher gain but if that fails, a run at the 1.5374 level, its Jan 08'09 high will follow where a break and hold below there will further downside weakness towards its May 18'09 low at 1.5117. However, if a recovery is seen, then its psycho level residing at the 1.6000 level will be aimed at initially with break above there allowing for further gains towards the 1.6399 level, its Nov 03'08 high and then its 2009 high resting at 1.6663.Its medium term upside will be triggered on a loss of the latter opening up for more upside gains. All in all, GBP has paused its medium term uptrend and now looks to head to the downside nearer term
Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Bearish
Short Term -Bullish
Medium Term -Mixed
Performance in %:
Past Week:: +1.28%
past Month: +9.39%
Past Quarter: -1.86%
Year To Date:: +9.22%
Weekly Range:
High -1.6663
Low -1.5941
USDJPY: Recovery Puts USDJPY Back Above The 97.24 Level.
USDJPY- As recovery higher continued the past week, USDJPY broke through its daily falling channel and its key resistance at the 97.24 level, its May 28'09 high to close the week higher at 98.66. This is coming on the back of a recovery triggered off the 93.89 level, its May 21'09 low following its weakness started at the 101.45 level, its April 06'09 high. Having broken and held above the mentioned resistance levels, odds now point to higher prices towards the its May 07'09 high at 99.74 with a loss of there putting the pair in position for further upside gains towards the 101.45 level, its April 06'09 high. Beyond there will resume the USDJPY medium term uptrend on hold since early April towards the 103.07 level, its Oct 14'09 high. Its weekly RSI has turned higher suggesting further upside gains. On the downside, its channel breakout point currently at 98.14 will come in as the initial support followed by its May 28'09 high at 97.24.Additional lower prices will aim at the 93.89 level. On the whole, recovery offensive invalidating key resistance levels, risk has now turned to the upside.
Directional Bias:
Nearer Term -Bearish
Short Term -Neutral
Medium Term -Bearish
Performance in %:
Past Week: +3.38%
Past Month: -3.60%
Past Quarter: +9.53%
Year To Date: +8.79%
Weekly Range:
High -98.89
Low -94.45
Mohammed Isah
Market Analyst
www.fxtechstrategy.com
Spekulasi Kenaikan Suku Bunga AS & Posisi Hedge Fund, Kuatkan USD
USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
80.59 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.3986 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS melanjutkan penguatan di sesi Asia hari ini terhadap mata uang Eropa dan Asia, berkat spekulasi resesi AS mereda, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset di AS. Dolar mengalami penguatan terbesar dalam lebih dari 3 pekan terhadap yen karena trader meningkatkan spekulasi bahwa Federal Reserve akan meningkatkan suku bunga setelah laporan pemerintah menunjukkan AS kehilangan lebih sedikit tenaga kerja dari perkiraan di bulan Mei. Dolar Australia menguat terhadap hampir semua dari 16 mata uang yang paling aktif karena spekulasi investor Jepang mungkin memindahkan lebih banyak dana ke surat berharga di negara Pasifik Selatan. Hari Jumat, AS merilis laporan Non Farm Payroll bulan Mei menunjukkan perusahaan di AS memangkas 345,000 tenaga kerja, lebih baik dari perkiraan penurunan 520,000, meski masih mencerminkan AS kehilangan tenaga kerja selama 17 bulan berturut-turut. Tingkat pengangguran melonjak ke 9.4%, level tertinggi 25 tahun. Kondisi tersebut mendorong penguatan dolar dari pandangan membaiknya ekonomi AS. Trader di Chicago Board of Trade, memperlihatkan peluang 70% the Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga overnight pada pertemuan kebijakan bulan November, dari peluang 24% pada pekan lalu. Trader berjangka di AS juga mengurangi pertaruhan untuk euro dan yen akan menguat terhadap dolar AS. Dolar masih dapat melanjutkan penguatan berkat perkiraan data Retail Sales, Fed Beige Book, U Michigan dan G8 meeting dapat mendorong spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global, diikuti situasi politik di Inggris.
Euro mendapatkan tekanan terhadap dolar AS, setelah data payroll AS meningkatkan spekulasi bahwa resesi di AS mendekati akhir, meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar AS dan meredam kekhawatiran terhadap isu rating hutang dan beban hutang AS. Euro juga tertekan berkat spekulasi ekonomi AS akan pertama pulih dari resesi berkepanjangan dan spekulasi di pasar futures bahwa peluang kenaikan suku bunga AS di pertemuan bulan November 2009 meningkat menjadi 70% dari 24% di pekan sebelumnya. Euro juga mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari laporan pasar futures di Commodity Futures Trading Commission pekan lalu menunjukkan, spekulan dan hedge fund mengurangi posisi net long euro sebesar 6,793 kontrak pada 2 Juni, dibandingkan net long 15,584 kontrak di pekan sebelumnya. Meski laju penurunan euro akan tertahan oleh potensi kenaikan indeks saham Asia hari ini. Pada hari Jumat, euro melemah tajam terhadap dolar karena data tenaga kerja AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan. Kontras dengan signal ekonomi yang stabil membantu angkat risk appetite, mengarahkan euro ke level terendah 1.3933 meski akhirnya ditutup di 1.3961, melemah 1.5%. Pekan ini, euro dapat terkoreksi jika data ekonomi AS menunjukkan signal pemulihan di ekonomi AS dapat memicu spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun, meredam permintaan untuk maa uang euro, menjelang data Industrial Production Jerman dan G8 meeting.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
98.43 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5935 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah untuk hari ke-4 terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah data tenaga kerja AS mendorong spekulasi resesi berkepanjangan di AS akan segera berakhir dan memicu perkiraan kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun ini. Meski laju pelemahan yen tertahan laporan kebangkrutan Jepang anjlok untuk pertama kali di tahun ini, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset di Jepang. Tokyo Shoko Research LTd Jepang melaporkan kebangkrutan Jepang merosot 6.7% dari tahun sebelumnya menjadi 1,203 kasus. Laporan tersebut memberikan signal keterpurukan ekonomi Jepang mulai moderat karena pulihnya produksi industri dan ekspor. Paket stimulus Perdana Menteri Taro Aso ikut membantu bisnis kecil dengan memberikan mereka akses untuk kredit. Sebelumnya hari Jumat, lebih baik dari perkiraan data payroll AS bulan Mei mendorong spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS berkat respon membaiknya ekonomi AS. Yen menjadi mata uang terlemah. Yen melemah ke 98.82 dari level intraday terendah 96.57, meski akhirnya ditutup di 98.69, menguat 194 pips dari penutupan sebelumnya. Data dari CFTC Futures pekan lalu menunjukkan spekulan dan hedge fund mengurangi net long JPY dari pekan sebelumnya. Pasar akan mengamati data ekonomi AS dan G8 meeting pada pekan ini.
Pound sterling masih melanjutkan penurunan terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah situasi politik di Inggris memburuk dan lebih baiknya data payroll AS bulan Mei, berperan menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang pound. Pound juga mengalami penurunan mingguan terbesar dalam 3 bulan terakhir karena Perdana Menteri Gordon Brown mengatur ulang kabinetnya di tengah serangakiann pengunduran diri dan desakan Brown untuk mundur. Pound melemah setelah 6 menteri di kabinet Brown mengundurkan diri dan hasil dari pemilu lokal Inggris menunjukkan partai berkuasa Labour Party mennjukkan kehilangan lebih dari 100 kursi di antara 2,000 kontestan. Pound juga terpukul setelah Rio Tinto menepis tawaran investasi dari Aluminum Corp China dan bank sentral Inggris mempertahankan suku bunga 0.50% pekan lalu. Pound melemah ke level terendah $ 1.5943 di sesi New York hari Jumat, level terendah sejak 29 Mei, sebesar 1.29%. Hasil dari pemilu, perolehan Labour Party turun 7% dari 2004, berada di tempat ke-3 sebesar 15.3%, Conservatives party 28.6%, Independent Party 17.4%. Pasar akan mengamati data perumahan, sentimen Inggris, data ekonomi AS dan G8 meeting, dapat meningkatkan volatilitas GBP.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0851 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0592 (02/06) 0.7975 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc melanjutkan tekanan di sesi Asia hari ini terhadap dolar, berkat spekulasi resesi AS mereda, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset di AS. Dolar mengalami penguatan terbesar dalam lebih dari 3 pekan terhadap yen karena trader meningkatkan spekulasi bahwa Federal Reserve akan meningkatkan suku bunga. Pelemahan euro, yen dan pound terhadap dolar, memberikan imbas negatif kepada CHF. Hari Jumat, AS merilis laporan Non Farm Payroll bulan Mei menunjukkan perusahaan di AS memangkas 345,000 tenaga kerja, lebih baik dari perkiraan penurunan 520,000, meski masih mencerminkan AS kehilangan tenaga kerja selama 17 bulan berturut-turut. Swiss frabc masih dapat tertekan terhadap dolar, berkat perkiraan data Retail Sales, Fed Beige Book, U Michigan dan G8 meeting dapat mendorong spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami koreksi penurunan di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat sentimen negatif dari lebih baik dari perkiraan data payroll AS yang memicu spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi AS akan lebih cepat dibandingkan negara maju lainnya, yang juga mendorong spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS. Sebelumnya laporan Rio Tinto Group dan BHP Biliton mengatakan mereka akan membuat joint venture untuk batu besi di Australia Selatan, memberikan tekanan jua untuk aussie dan kiwi di akhir pekan lalu. Meski aussie dan kiwi masih mendapatkan support dari masih tingginya harga komoditi dan perkiraan sejumla data ekonomi global dan G8 meeting pekan ini, akan mendorong pemulihan ekonomi global, yang meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang aussie dan kiwi.
Technical Analysis
(-50-50p) EUR-USD masih berada dalam trend bullish selama support line 1.3927 tidak ditembus, meski trend minor bearish, seperti ditunjukkan oleh indikator candestick three unique river bottom, stochastic daily dead cross, MACD terlihat masih uptrend dan ADX daily menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, menunjukkan potensi penurunan euro terbatas dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Penutupan euro hari ini dibawah 1.3927, akan mendorong bearish continuation untuk target 1.3777 (61.8% FR 1.4334-1.3430)/1.3607 (50.0% FR). Resistance berada di 1.4172/1.4369 (upper channel). Euro saat ini berada di koreksi wave a setelah menyelesaikan wave minute 5 wave intermediate 4. Buy 1.3920 target di 1.4050 stop 50p, buy break 1.4070 target 1.4175 stop 30p, Sell 1.4175 target 1.3950 stop 50p. Buy 1.38000 target 1.4050 stop 50p.
(-20+100p) USDJPY mendapatkan signal positif dari technical breakout ressitance channel di 98.26, untuk target ke 99.97 (161.8 fibonacci expansion 93.84 ke 97.31 hingga 94.41), yang memutarbalikkan trend netral menjadi bullish jangka pendek. Yen juga masih menunjukkan pola head & shoulder. Sementara pola congestion telah ditembus hari Jumat. Indikator ADX terangkat naik, stochastic crossing up bullish meski MACD mulai berada di teritorial positif, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan bebrapa hari mendatang. Trend jangka menengah masih bullish selama berada di atas 96.85 (200-day MA). Resistane di 99.75 (high 07/05)/100.33 (high 06/04). Support di 98.15/96.83. Sell break 98.00 target 97.45 stop 98.50, buy 97.45 target 98.80 stop 50p. Buy break 99.75 target 102.30, sell 99.50 target 97.40.
(+120p)+40p). Trend bullish GBP-USD terancam saat ini, dari tembusnya downtrend line di 1.6110 dan 1.5860 dalam pola ascending triangle di daily chart, seharusnya masih memberikan momentum bearish untuk GBP. Meski GBP masih mendapatkan support dari pola broadening bullish dengan support 1.5860 dan jika penutupan hari ini diatas 1.5860. Daily chart juga menunjukkan pola candle three black crows dan shooting star di weekly chart dapat memperburuk pandangan teknikal GBP-USD pekan depan. Indikator teknikal ADX trending down, mendukung potensi penuurunan terbatas, didukung MACD & Stochastic 4 jam yang bearish. Analisa EW menunjukkan saat ini berada dalam koreksi a di perkiraan support 1.5860- wave impulse 3. Buy 1.5850 target 1.6010 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6085 target 1.6280 stop 50p. Sell 1.6030 target 1.5930 stop 1.6090. Buy break 1.6250 target 1.6400 stop 50p. Sell break 1.5800 target 1.5560.
(+70-50p) AUD-USD masih berada dalam trend bullish selama masih bertahan di atas downtrend line 0.7940 dengan pola candle three unique rive bottom kemarin didukung oleh ADX terkoreksi turun dari kondisi overbought, stochastic dead cross dan MACD yang masih uptrend, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish di atas ascending triangle), untuk target 0.8263 (61.8 FE & high kemarin))/0.8449 (100.0 FE). Elliot wave menunjukkan koreksi motive wave 4 dalam wave intermediate C. Buy 0.7900/0.7930 target 0.8250 stop 50p, Buy break 0.8000 target 0.8160 (closing) stop 50p, Sell 0.8160 target 0.8050 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8290 target 0.8430, sell break 0.7890 target 0.7700 stop 50p.
80.59 89.62 (04/03) 78.59 (01/06) 1.3986 1.4337 (03/06) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS melanjutkan penguatan di sesi Asia hari ini terhadap mata uang Eropa dan Asia, berkat spekulasi resesi AS mereda, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset di AS. Dolar mengalami penguatan terbesar dalam lebih dari 3 pekan terhadap yen karena trader meningkatkan spekulasi bahwa Federal Reserve akan meningkatkan suku bunga setelah laporan pemerintah menunjukkan AS kehilangan lebih sedikit tenaga kerja dari perkiraan di bulan Mei. Dolar Australia menguat terhadap hampir semua dari 16 mata uang yang paling aktif karena spekulasi investor Jepang mungkin memindahkan lebih banyak dana ke surat berharga di negara Pasifik Selatan. Hari Jumat, AS merilis laporan Non Farm Payroll bulan Mei menunjukkan perusahaan di AS memangkas 345,000 tenaga kerja, lebih baik dari perkiraan penurunan 520,000, meski masih mencerminkan AS kehilangan tenaga kerja selama 17 bulan berturut-turut. Tingkat pengangguran melonjak ke 9.4%, level tertinggi 25 tahun. Kondisi tersebut mendorong penguatan dolar dari pandangan membaiknya ekonomi AS. Trader di Chicago Board of Trade, memperlihatkan peluang 70% the Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga overnight pada pertemuan kebijakan bulan November, dari peluang 24% pada pekan lalu. Trader berjangka di AS juga mengurangi pertaruhan untuk euro dan yen akan menguat terhadap dolar AS. Dolar masih dapat melanjutkan penguatan berkat perkiraan data Retail Sales, Fed Beige Book, U Michigan dan G8 meeting dapat mendorong spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global, diikuti situasi politik di Inggris.
Euro mendapatkan tekanan terhadap dolar AS, setelah data payroll AS meningkatkan spekulasi bahwa resesi di AS mendekati akhir, meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar AS dan meredam kekhawatiran terhadap isu rating hutang dan beban hutang AS. Euro juga tertekan berkat spekulasi ekonomi AS akan pertama pulih dari resesi berkepanjangan dan spekulasi di pasar futures bahwa peluang kenaikan suku bunga AS di pertemuan bulan November 2009 meningkat menjadi 70% dari 24% di pekan sebelumnya. Euro juga mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari laporan pasar futures di Commodity Futures Trading Commission pekan lalu menunjukkan, spekulan dan hedge fund mengurangi posisi net long euro sebesar 6,793 kontrak pada 2 Juni, dibandingkan net long 15,584 kontrak di pekan sebelumnya. Meski laju penurunan euro akan tertahan oleh potensi kenaikan indeks saham Asia hari ini. Pada hari Jumat, euro melemah tajam terhadap dolar karena data tenaga kerja AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan. Kontras dengan signal ekonomi yang stabil membantu angkat risk appetite, mengarahkan euro ke level terendah 1.3933 meski akhirnya ditutup di 1.3961, melemah 1.5%. Pekan ini, euro dapat terkoreksi jika data ekonomi AS menunjukkan signal pemulihan di ekonomi AS dapat memicu spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun, meredam permintaan untuk maa uang euro, menjelang data Industrial Production Jerman dan G8 meeting.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
98.43 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5935 1.6661 (03/06) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen melemah untuk hari ke-4 terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah data tenaga kerja AS mendorong spekulasi resesi berkepanjangan di AS akan segera berakhir dan memicu perkiraan kenaikan suku bunga AS di akhir tahun ini. Meski laju pelemahan yen tertahan laporan kebangkrutan Jepang anjlok untuk pertama kali di tahun ini, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset di Jepang. Tokyo Shoko Research LTd Jepang melaporkan kebangkrutan Jepang merosot 6.7% dari tahun sebelumnya menjadi 1,203 kasus. Laporan tersebut memberikan signal keterpurukan ekonomi Jepang mulai moderat karena pulihnya produksi industri dan ekspor. Paket stimulus Perdana Menteri Taro Aso ikut membantu bisnis kecil dengan memberikan mereka akses untuk kredit. Sebelumnya hari Jumat, lebih baik dari perkiraan data payroll AS bulan Mei mendorong spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS berkat respon membaiknya ekonomi AS. Yen menjadi mata uang terlemah. Yen melemah ke 98.82 dari level intraday terendah 96.57, meski akhirnya ditutup di 98.69, menguat 194 pips dari penutupan sebelumnya. Data dari CFTC Futures pekan lalu menunjukkan spekulan dan hedge fund mengurangi net long JPY dari pekan sebelumnya. Pasar akan mengamati data ekonomi AS dan G8 meeting pada pekan ini.
Pound sterling masih melanjutkan penurunan terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, setelah situasi politik di Inggris memburuk dan lebih baiknya data payroll AS bulan Mei, berperan menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang pound. Pound juga mengalami penurunan mingguan terbesar dalam 3 bulan terakhir karena Perdana Menteri Gordon Brown mengatur ulang kabinetnya di tengah serangakiann pengunduran diri dan desakan Brown untuk mundur. Pound melemah setelah 6 menteri di kabinet Brown mengundurkan diri dan hasil dari pemilu lokal Inggris menunjukkan partai berkuasa Labour Party mennjukkan kehilangan lebih dari 100 kursi di antara 2,000 kontestan. Pound juga terpukul setelah Rio Tinto menepis tawaran investasi dari Aluminum Corp China dan bank sentral Inggris mempertahankan suku bunga 0.50% pekan lalu. Pound melemah ke level terendah $ 1.5943 di sesi New York hari Jumat, level terendah sejak 29 Mei, sebesar 1.29%. Hasil dari pemilu, perolehan Labour Party turun 7% dari 2004, berada di tempat ke-3 sebesar 15.3%, Conservatives party 28.6%, Independent Party 17.4%. Pasar akan mengamati data perumahan, sentimen Inggris, data ekonomi AS dan G8 meeting, dapat meningkatkan volatilitas GBP.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0851 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0592 (02/06) 0.7975 0.8263 (03/06) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc melanjutkan tekanan di sesi Asia hari ini terhadap dolar, berkat spekulasi resesi AS mereda, meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset di AS. Dolar mengalami penguatan terbesar dalam lebih dari 3 pekan terhadap yen karena trader meningkatkan spekulasi bahwa Federal Reserve akan meningkatkan suku bunga. Pelemahan euro, yen dan pound terhadap dolar, memberikan imbas negatif kepada CHF. Hari Jumat, AS merilis laporan Non Farm Payroll bulan Mei menunjukkan perusahaan di AS memangkas 345,000 tenaga kerja, lebih baik dari perkiraan penurunan 520,000, meski masih mencerminkan AS kehilangan tenaga kerja selama 17 bulan berturut-turut. Swiss frabc masih dapat tertekan terhadap dolar, berkat perkiraan data Retail Sales, Fed Beige Book, U Michigan dan G8 meeting dapat mendorong spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mengalami koreksi penurunan di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat sentimen negatif dari lebih baik dari perkiraan data payroll AS yang memicu spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi AS akan lebih cepat dibandingkan negara maju lainnya, yang juga mendorong spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS. Sebelumnya laporan Rio Tinto Group dan BHP Biliton mengatakan mereka akan membuat joint venture untuk batu besi di Australia Selatan, memberikan tekanan jua untuk aussie dan kiwi di akhir pekan lalu. Meski aussie dan kiwi masih mendapatkan support dari masih tingginya harga komoditi dan perkiraan sejumla data ekonomi global dan G8 meeting pekan ini, akan mendorong pemulihan ekonomi global, yang meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang aussie dan kiwi.
Technical Analysis
(-50-50p) EUR-USD masih berada dalam trend bullish selama support line 1.3927 tidak ditembus, meski trend minor bearish, seperti ditunjukkan oleh indikator candestick three unique river bottom, stochastic daily dead cross, MACD terlihat masih uptrend dan ADX daily menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, menunjukkan potensi penurunan euro terbatas dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Penutupan euro hari ini dibawah 1.3927, akan mendorong bearish continuation untuk target 1.3777 (61.8% FR 1.4334-1.3430)/1.3607 (50.0% FR). Resistance berada di 1.4172/1.4369 (upper channel). Euro saat ini berada di koreksi wave a setelah menyelesaikan wave minute 5 wave intermediate 4. Buy 1.3920 target di 1.4050 stop 50p, buy break 1.4070 target 1.4175 stop 30p, Sell 1.4175 target 1.3950 stop 50p. Buy 1.38000 target 1.4050 stop 50p.
(-20+100p) USDJPY mendapatkan signal positif dari technical breakout ressitance channel di 98.26, untuk target ke 99.97 (161.8 fibonacci expansion 93.84 ke 97.31 hingga 94.41), yang memutarbalikkan trend netral menjadi bullish jangka pendek. Yen juga masih menunjukkan pola head & shoulder. Sementara pola congestion telah ditembus hari Jumat. Indikator ADX terangkat naik, stochastic crossing up bullish meski MACD mulai berada di teritorial positif, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan bebrapa hari mendatang. Trend jangka menengah masih bullish selama berada di atas 96.85 (200-day MA). Resistane di 99.75 (high 07/05)/100.33 (high 06/04). Support di 98.15/96.83. Sell break 98.00 target 97.45 stop 98.50, buy 97.45 target 98.80 stop 50p. Buy break 99.75 target 102.30, sell 99.50 target 97.40.
(+120p)+40p). Trend bullish GBP-USD terancam saat ini, dari tembusnya downtrend line di 1.6110 dan 1.5860 dalam pola ascending triangle di daily chart, seharusnya masih memberikan momentum bearish untuk GBP. Meski GBP masih mendapatkan support dari pola broadening bullish dengan support 1.5860 dan jika penutupan hari ini diatas 1.5860. Daily chart juga menunjukkan pola candle three black crows dan shooting star di weekly chart dapat memperburuk pandangan teknikal GBP-USD pekan depan. Indikator teknikal ADX trending down, mendukung potensi penuurunan terbatas, didukung MACD & Stochastic 4 jam yang bearish. Analisa EW menunjukkan saat ini berada dalam koreksi a di perkiraan support 1.5860- wave impulse 3. Buy 1.5850 target 1.6010 stop 60p. Buy break 1.6085 target 1.6280 stop 50p. Sell 1.6030 target 1.5930 stop 1.6090. Buy break 1.6250 target 1.6400 stop 50p. Sell break 1.5800 target 1.5560.
(+70-50p) AUD-USD masih berada dalam trend bullish selama masih bertahan di atas downtrend line 0.7940 dengan pola candle three unique rive bottom kemarin didukung oleh ADX terkoreksi turun dari kondisi overbought, stochastic dead cross dan MACD yang masih uptrend, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish di atas ascending triangle), untuk target 0.8263 (61.8 FE & high kemarin))/0.8449 (100.0 FE). Elliot wave menunjukkan koreksi motive wave 4 dalam wave intermediate C. Buy 0.7900/0.7930 target 0.8250 stop 50p, Buy break 0.8000 target 0.8160 (closing) stop 50p, Sell 0.8160 target 0.8050 stop 50p. Buy break 0.8290 target 0.8430, sell break 0.7890 target 0.7700 stop 50p.
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