Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Oilngold
At this moment, intraday bias in Crude oil remains on the upside as long as 55.3 minor support holds. Current rise from 43.83, which is part of the whole rally from 33.2, is expected to extend further to 60 psychological level, which is close to 23.6% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 60.12. On the downside, below 55.30 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But pull back should be contained above 50.6 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the possible five wave structure of the rise from 33.2 and the sustained trading above 55 days EMA is consistent with the view that fall from 147.27 has completed at 33.2. Medium term outlook will now remain bullish as long as 43.83 support holds and crude oil is set to take on next key resistance of 55 weeks EMA at 67.94 and 55 months EMA at 68.72.

Gold Daily Technical Outlook

Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's break of 910.5 minor support suggests that an intraday top is in place and turns outlook for the moment. Upside moment so far is rather unconvincing. Nevertheless, favor is still in the bullish case as long as 880.1 support holds. That is, correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865/865.6 already. This is indeed supported by break of the falling trend line resistance. Further rally should be seen to 967.7 first and then 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. However, break of 880.1 will invalidate this view and indicate that correction from 1007.7 is still in progress for 865 and below.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should be seen after completing the correction. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact.

Daily Technical Analysis & Elliot Wave Forex/Cross/Gold/Oil/CFD

By Ahmad Mudjo

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Barton's Asian Stock Market Charts ...DJIA & S&P ????

Indonesia Rupiah to Rally 4.4% in Two Weeks: Technical Analysis

Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s rupiah, Asia’s best performer this year, is set to appreciate 4.4 percent in the next two weeks, said Pak Lai Ng, a technical analyst at Forecast Pte. in Singapore, citing trading patterns. The dollar-rupiah’s 20-day moving average fell below its 200-day measure yesterday for the first time since July, indicating the rupiah will extend its rally against the greenback, Ng said. The rupiah has surged 26 percent since reaching a 10-year low of 13,150 on Nov. 21 on optimism a global recession is easing and President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono may be re-elected later this year.

The rupiah may approach the “psychologically important level” of 10,000 a dollar, “maybe in the next one to two weeks,” Ng said.

The currency traded at 10,442 as of 8:47 a.m. in Jakarta, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It earlier touched 10,319, the strongest level since Oct. 27. The rupiah’s 4.4 percent advance this year makes it the best performer among the 10 most-active Asian currencies outside of Japan.The 20-day moving average for the dollar-rupiah touched 10,723 today, compared with the 200-day’s 10,805, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Moving averages are used to identify trends and find support or resistance. Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered and resistance is where there may be sell orders.

Bursting Of The Bond Bubble: Not So Fast

By Guy Lerner on May 8, 2009 |
The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond has spiked 10% in the past two weeks, and many are now jumping on the “bonds are the next bubble to burst” bandwagon. I was one of the first to be bearish on Treasury bonds calling for the likelihood of a secular trend change back in December, 2008 and a top in back in February, 2009. Higher Treasury yields are in our future, and it isn’t a matter of if but when.Over the past 6 months in these commentaries, I have highlighted several fundamental dynamics that were sure to keep yields low. Now it appears these concerns are unfounded. One of these fundamental dynamics was continued and unfettered buying of our bonds by sovereign wealth funds.However, this now appears less likely as foreigners (i.e., China) have expressed concern over trends in the dollar and with the USA’s current liabilities. Another dynamic that was sure to keep yields low was the Federal Reserve’s announcement to buy $300 billion in Treasury bonds over the next 6 months. Despite this quantitative easing, yields are higher today than when the Fed invoked the “nuclear option”.

The last reason for lower yields was economic weakness, or rather, it would be unusual for yields to rise during a recession. As discussed in “Maybe The Bond Market Is Right”, yields generally rise well into an economic recovery. However, with the sprouting of “green shoots” and incessant talk of the economy finding a bottom - not recovery - yields are now moving higher. Remember the economy has only stopped going down; growth is somewhere off in the distance down a very bumpy road, and yields are already spiking.So why are yields rising? Simple, it is supply and demand. Having to finance our recovery - or mortgage our future - with the creation of several trillion dollars of debt is causing yields to rise. The government has been flooding the market with new Treasury issues, and investors are demanding higher yields.ut the title of this article suggests that I am not on board with the bursting bond bubble - as in hold on, not so fast. So let me state again: higher Treasury yields are in our future, and it isn’t a matter of if but when. My hesitation comes from the weekly chart of the 10 year Treasury yield shown in figure 1. As you can see, yields are butting up against an 20 month down trend line at the top of a channel, and from a technical perspective I have a hard time seeing yields pierce through these levels so easily.

Figure 1. 10 Year Treasury Yield/ weekly
In particular, if I am expecting stock market weakness - and this would likely be on concerns for sub par growth or some such nonsense - then yields should head lower. With “everyone” expecting the bursting of the bond bubble, I doubt such an event will come so easily or when investors are expecting it.
For the record, the secular trend for higher yields on the 10 year Treasury bond will be confirmed on a monthly close greater than 3.43%. And let me go on record now, and say that this will happen by the end of the third quarter of this year.

Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Will we ever get lift-off? Bouncing again from the top of the 'cloud' and the nine-day moving average, squeezing to a new recent high at 1.3471. Similar patterns can be seen in a series of major currencies suggesting generalised US dollar weakness this month and eventually the Euro should be dragged higher. A weekly close above 1.3600 should add significantly to current bullish momentum.
Strategy: Buy at 1.3400, adding to 1.3245; stop below 1.3090. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3475 for 1.3575/1.3600 and more further out.
Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3342 " 1.3412
1.3245 1.344
1.32 1.3471*
1.3100/1.3090* 1.352
1.3 1.3582*
GBPUSD
Comment: Retreating from a recent high at 1.5198, just under January's high at 1.5375. Cable should re-group today in order to mount another upside attack next week. A weekly close above 1.5150 should add to bullish pressure, though maybe not convincingly.Strategy: Buy at 1.5015; stop below 1.4800. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5200 for 1.5375 short term and then 1.5725/1.5800
Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.5000 " 1.5055
1.4968/1.4942 1.5115
1.4835 1.5200*
1.47 1.5375*
1.4500* 1.5535
USDJPY
Comment: A small 'spike high' yesterday at 99.80 might mean that we hold below here again today and drift down to the Ichimoku 'cloud'.Strategy: Attempt shorts at 99.25; stop above 99.85. Short term target 97.75, maybe 97.15.
Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
98.94 " 99.42
98.3 99.57
97.94 99.80**
97.7 100
97.15/96.90* 100.74
EURJPY
Comment: Conflicting messages as we trade very broadly sideways roughly between 126.00 and 134.00. We feel the latest rally might stall around the 133.00 area but be prepared to be very flexible short term and probably for the whole of this year.
Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 133.00; stop above 134.50. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 130.70 for 128.85 and maybe 126.65.Direction of Trade: →
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
132.15 " 133.23
130.7 133.58
129.85 134
128.5 134.33/134.50*
126.45* 135.5
India Forex
Euro
mic stabalization after taking the important cluster support around 1.3250 . The daily and 4-hourly charts are turning mid-way to indicate further upside in Euro. Decisive break of 1.3450 can push Euro to 1.3680. Look for buying opportunities at dips.(Eur/Usd:1.3389). Bullish above 1.3190.
Pound: Cable plunged almost 250 pips to 1.4942 (38.2% of the recent rally) even though BoE kept rates unchanged at 0.5%. Support remains around 1.49 levels, holding above which can bring a pull back to 1.5150 and then to 1.5350 levels. Look for buying cable around those levels for 100 pips. Alternatively, sell around 1.5350 levels for 100-150 pips as the daily charts are highly overbought. (Gbp/Usd: 1.5020). Short Term Bullish.
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair moved higher upto 99.75 yesterday. The charts have become neutral. Support remains at 98.00 where going long on the pair could be considered for 80-100 pips. Decisive break above 100 can push the pair to 101.70 resistance. (Usd/Jpy: 99.25).
Australian Dollar: Aussie surged 160 pips to 0.7615 levels yesterday. All the major charts have flattened in the overbought region. Sustaining above 0.7550 can push Aussie to 0.7798 levels (100 & 200 Weekly EMA). Selling around 0.7760 for 70-80 pips could be considered. (Aud/Usd: 0.7542).
Gold: Gold surged to $925 ($16) yesterday to take the 61.8% Retracement Resistance. The view for gold still remains bullish as far as $895 support is strong. The 4-hourly charts are getting oversold, thus buying around $902 levels could be considered. Near term bias for Gold - Range-bound . (Gold: $913.60).
Dollar index: The Dollar Index has weakened as it broke the 84 support once again. It is now heading towards 83.25 as the next target-support. Bearish. (84.14). RANGE-BOUND to Bearish.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair failed to breach the key resistance for the ascending channel at 1.3465 as it resulted in a decline of almost 100 pips. We still hold our outlook to the upside with the breach of the 1.3480 level to open the way towards 1.3585 and 1.3700 yet it is important to watch closely the fundamentals to be released from the US at 12:30 GMT as it may result in heavy volatility in the markets. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2800 and the key resistance at 1.3700. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
Support: 1.3340, 1.3310, 1.3255, 1.3210, 1.3125
Resistance: 1.3430, 1.3480, 1.3525, 1.3585, 1.3625
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3480 with targets at 1.3585 and 1.3700 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3340
GBP
The Cable continued to be pressured to the downside after breaching the key support for the minor downside channel before rebounding back to the upside in an attempt to maintain levels above 1.4975. This adjustment to the upside helps us hold our outlook on the short term targeting 1.5300 as an initial target before heading towards 1.6000 as far as 1.4820 remains intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4470 and the key resistance at 1.5400. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440
Support: 1.4975, 1.4915, 1.4845, 1.4820, 1.4765
Resistance: 1.5060, 1.5115, 1.5165, 1.5190, 1.5270
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.5060 with targets at 1.5190 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.4975
JPY
The USD/JPY pair declined yesterday after touching 99.55 to currently trade within narrow ranges among the 98.85 and 99.40 levels where we still believe the pair has enough momentum to breach the above mentioned resistance and target 100.65 and 101.45 on the intraday basis before heading towards 103.00 on the short term. This incline remains as far as 96.00 is intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 96.00 and the key resistance at 103.00
The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60.
Support: 98.90, 98.65, 98.05, 97.15, 96.35
Resistance: 99.55, 100.25, 100.65, 101.00, 101.45
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 99.55 with targets at 100.65 and stop loss with four hour closing below 98.65
CHF
Once again the 1.1395 resistance level halted further inclines for the Dollar versus Swissy pair as it reversed back the downside to reach 1.1270. Our outlook remains to the downside targeting 1.1165 and 1.0980 as far as 1.1395 remains intact today and 1.1535 on the short term.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0980 and the key resistance at 1.1800. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245
Support: 1.1240, 1.1165, 1.1100, 1.1055, 1.0980
Resistance: 1.1355, 1.1395, 1.1420, 1.1535, 1.1585
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1240 with targets at 1.1165 and 1.1100 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1355
CAD
The 61.8% correction at 1.1750 stopped the Dollar versus Loonie from inclining which keeps the downside trend valid targeting the 1.1500 level after confirming the breach of 1.1655. Concerning today, the 1.1815 level must remain intact for the decline to occur where a breach of this level to the upside will open the way for the pair towards 1.1975 and 1.2175 respectively. Trading may be volatile today due to the major fundamentals released from Canada.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1450 and the key resistance at 1.2175The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.1500 remains intact with targets at 1.3400
Support: 1.1650, 1.1580, 1.1515, 1.1450, 1.1370
Resistance: 1.1750, 1.1815, 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1975
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1650 with targets at 1.1515 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1750

Uptrend Euro & Pound Masih Berlanjut

USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
83.98 (-7) 89.62 (08/03) 79.63 (04/01) 1.3367 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)

Dolar AS diperdagangkan hampir di dekat level terendah 1-bulan terhadap euro sebelum laporan ekonomi AS yang akan menunjukkan perusahaan akan memangkas tenaga kerja pada laju yang lebih lambat di bulan April, telah menurunkan permintaan untuk dolar yang sebelumnya mendapatkan status safe haven ketika terjadi krisis global. Kebijakan bank sentral Eropa yang telah menurunkan suku bunga 25 bsp dan mengumumkan pembelian obligasi senilai 60 mliar euro, lebih rendah dari perkiraan, ikut melemahkan dolar terhadap euro semalam. Sebelumnya, dolar ditutup mix terhadap major, dolar menguat terhadap yen, pound, dolar Australia. Investor merasa lega, hasil Strest Test bank di AS tidak memberikan kejutan dan investor menjadi kembali tertarik memburu aset yang beresiko. Tidak ada dari 19 bank yang menghadapi “insolvent” tetapi 10 bank, termasuk Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup dll, perlu untuk meningkatkan kapital sebesar total $ 74.6 miliar, dengan tenggat waktu 8 Juni membangun rencana untuk mendapatkan kapital dan 9 November untuk diimplementasikan. Data Jobless Claims AS menunjukkan penurunan ke 601k dari 631k di pekan sebelumnya, mendorong perkiraan payroll AS (-600.000), unemoployment akan mengarah ke tertinggi 25-tahun di 8.9%, dirilis hari ini, akan lebih baik dari perkiraan ke perkiraan kami -520.000, dapat memicu aksi risk appetite dapat menahan laju pelemahan dolar.

Euro melemah terhadap dolar untuk pertama kali dalam 3 sesi perdagangan terakhir berkat spekulasi pejabat bank sentral Eropa akan memberikan signal suku bunga akan diturunkan kembali setelah bank sentral memangkas suku bunga ke rekor terendah 1.0% kemarin. Euro melemah terhadap 13 dari 16 mata uang paling aktif sebelum laporan dari Jerman yang menunjukkan data Industrial Production anjlok untuk bulan ke-7 di bulan Maret, diperkirakan melemah 1.3% di bulan Maret. Investor meningkatkan peluang ECB untuk menurunkan suku bunga dari 1.0 persen pada pertemuan 4 Juni. Sebelumnya euro menguat terhadap setelah ECB mengumumkan dimulainya pembelian obligasi untuk menopang pasar finansial dan mengangkat ekonomi. ECB menurunkan suku bunga 25 bsp ke rekor terendah 1.0% dan melanjutkan likuiditas ke bank-bank menjadi 12 bulan dari 6 bulan dan membeli covered bond sebesar 60 miliar euro, yang ditujukan untuk meredakan tekana pendanaan, meskipun sejumlah analis menunjukkan ukuran tidak seagresif yang dilakukan the Fed dan BOE. Euro sempat mencapai level tertinggi 1-bulan $ 1.3471 dan ditutup di 1.3371. Spekulasi lebih baik dari perkiraan data payroll AS bulan April setelah data ADP Employment, jobless claims AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar baru-baru ini, dapat menahan penguatan euro.

USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
99.03 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.4995 1.5372 (08/01) 1.3502 (23/01)

Yen melemah terhadap dolar di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat tidak ada kejutan dari hasil Strest Test bank AS dan sesuai perkiraan penurunan suku bunga ECB dan pengumuman dimulainya pembelian covered bond oleh ECB senilai 60 miliar euro kemarin. Kenaikan indeks saham Nikkei 225 average di sesi Asia hari ini, ikut mendorong investor yakin untuk kembali memburu aset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi, menurunkan daya tarik untuk mata uang safe haven seperti yen dan dolar. Yen juga melemah terhadap dolar Australia dan dolar Selandia Baru. Sebelumnya kemarin, yen melemah terhadap mata uang utama dunia lainnya tetapi menguat terhadap euro, karean trader merasa lega setelah hasil Strest Test bank di AS tidak seburuk perkiraan pasar. Yen sempat melemah ke 99.72 sebelum menguat ke 98.36 dan akhirnya ditutup di level 98.90. Spekulasi lebih baik dari perkiraan data payroll AS nanti malam, setelah data ADP Employment dan Jobless Claims AS semalam tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan, diikuti memburuknya fundamental ekonomi Jepang, seharusnya masih mendorong tekanan jual untuk yen di tengah euphoria bull market di pasar saham global saat ini.

Pound sterling melemah terhadap dolar di sesi Asia, untuk pertama kali dalam 7 hari terakhir setelah Bank of England mengatakan akan membelanjakan tambahan 50 miliar pound ($ 75 miliar) uang baru untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi kemarin. Pound juga menghentikan penguatan terhadap euro setelah bank sentral mengatakan mereka kan meningkatkan program pembelian aset menjadi 125 miliar pound. Bank sentral tetap mempertahankan suku bunga di rekor terendah 0.50% hari ini karena ingin membangkitkan ekonomi yang telah mengalami keterpurukan ekonomi dalam 3 dekade terakhir selama kuartal pertama. Pound sempat melemah ke level terendah 1.4945 semalam, dari level tertinggi sejak 9 Januari di 1.5197, sebelum akhirnya ditutup di 1.5032. Sementara potensi pelemahan pound terhadap dolar masih terbuka, terutama dari sisi teknikal dan jika data payroll AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan, dapat meningkatkan permintaan untuk dolar berkat spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi AS akan lebh cepat ketimbang Inggris.

USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.1305 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7541 0.7615 (07/05) 0.6248 (02/02)

Swiss franc mengalami penguatan terhadap dolar dan pound, mengikuti pergerakan euro dolar yang menguat setelah langkah yang dilakukan ECB sesuai dengan perkiraan dan hasil strest test AS dini hari, tidak ada dari 19 bank yang menghadapi “insolvent” tetapi 10 bank, termasuk Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup dll, perlu untuk meningkatkan kapital sebesar total $ 74.6 miliar, dengan tenggat waktu 8 Juni untuk membangun rencana untuk mendapatkan kapital dan 9 November untuk diimplementasikan. Data Jobless Claims AS pekan lalu menunjukkan penurunan ke 601k dari 631k di pekan sebelumnya, mendorong perkiraan bahwa data payroll AS (-600.000) dirilis hari ini, akan lebih baik dari perkiraan ke perkiraan kami -520.000, dapat memicu aksi risk appetite dapat menahan laju penguatan Swiss franc terhadap dolar. Sementara suku bunga Swiss yang mendekati nol persen masih membebani potensi penguatan CHF.

Dolar Australia (Aussie) berpotensi mengalami penguatan untk pekan ke-10 pada pekan ini, kenaikan serial mingguan terlama sejak 2003, karena saham global menguat setelah data ekonomi menunjukkan resesi global mungkin mereda. Dolar Selandia Baru ikut menguat. Dolar Australia menghentikan penguatan selama 5 hari berturut-turut karena investor berspekulasi penguatan ke level tertinggi 7-bulan mungkin telah selesai. Aussie melanjutkan penurunan setelah bank sentral Australia (RBA) mengatakan ekonomi akan menyusut 1.25 persen dalam periode 12 bulan hingga Juni. Aussie kemarin sempat menguat ke level tertinggi 0.7615, mengikuti penguatan euro terhadap dolar, setelah ECB pangkas suku bunga 25 bsp dan mengumumkan pembelian obligasi 60 miliar euro. Sementara penguatan indeks saham Asia Pacifik masih memberikan sentimen positif kepada aussie, sebelum rilisan data tenaga kerja AS malam ini.


Technical Analysis

(closed at 1.3365: +50p). Euro masih berada dalam trend bullish jangka pendek, didukung oleh pola candle doji star, stochastic crossing up, MACD bullish, meski ADX terlihat bullish mendukung perkiraan kenaikan pada pada hari ini, dengan target resistance line di 1.3455/1.3578 (fibo retracement 50.0%), selama masih ditutup diatas support line di 1.3268, meski trend jangka menengah masih bearish semalam ditutup dibawah 1.3472 (200-day MA). Potensi penurunan terbatas support 50.0% Fibo retracement di 1.3232/1.3274 (35-hour MA)). Buy 1.3350 target 1.3470 stop dibawah 1.3300. Sell diatas 1.3500 stop diatas 1.3560 target 1.3350.

(Hold sell 99.25 target 97.80) USD-JPY masih menunjukkan potensi kenaikan berkat signal positif dari indikator teknikal MACD yg bullish, stochastic crossing up dan pola candle bullish engulfing, kendati laju kenaikan terbatas karena ADX masih terlihat lemah, mendukung perkiraan range trading 97-99.70 pada hari ini. Penutupan harga diatas Y 100.12 hari ini dan pekan ini dpat memutarbalikan trend jangka menengah menjadi netral dari bearish untuk target 103.27 (trendline). Sementara trend jangka pendek yang bullish tetap valid selama ditutup diatas 96.30. Sell kembali di atas 99.80 stop diatas 100.20 target 97.80.

(-60p) GBP-USD masih menunjukkan trend bullish jangka pendek, karena masih berada dalam pola rising wedge dalam formasi ascending triangle, selama ditutup harian diatas 1.4945(downtrendline) untuk mencoba trendline 1.5220 (trendline)/1.5354 (100.0 FE). Indikator ADX trend up, MACD bullish, stochastic crossing up, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Meski laju kenaikan tebatas berkat signal negatif dari pola candle dark cloud cover dan rejection 23.6% fibo retracement di 1.5200. Buy di 1.4910 target 1.5100, stop 1.4830, sell 1.5200 target 1.5100, stop diatas 1.5250.

AUD-USD masih menunjukkan trend kenaikan, berkat pola candle long bullish, didukung indikator teknikal ADX, stochastic, MACD yang uptrend, kendati laju kenaikan akan tertahan di resistance line – ascending triangle di 0.7626. potensi penurunan terlihat terbatas di support 0.7516 (trendline hourly)/0.7458 (double bottom hourly). Buy dibawah 0.7515 target 0.7660 stop dibawah 0.7450. Sell dibawah 0.7440 target 0.7360 stop diatas 60p.

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Aksi Profit-Taking AKan Hambat Laju Uptrend IHSG

Market Review
Kenaikan harga komoditi (minyak, nikel & CPO) ke level tertinggi multi-bulanan dan dampak positif dari kenaikan saham regional Asia berkat meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap hasil Strest Test bank AS, diikuti meningkatnya sentiment positif dari kenaikan rating saham Indonesia oleh sejumlah analis asing, mendorong investor asing meningkatkan inflow ke pasar saham lokal, berperan menguatkan IHSG untuk hari ke-2. Antisipasi pasar terhadap calon pendamping Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, ikut memicu aksi beli di sejumlah saham unggulan. Meski laju kenaikan IHSG terbatas, menjelang hasil Uji Kelayakan (Strest Test 19 bank) AS. IHSG sempat mencatat level tertinggi 7-bulan di 1,840.47. IHSG ditutup menguat 30.51 poin (+1.69%) di 1,828.85, nilai transaksi Rp 8.91 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net buy Rp 228.14 miliar dari net sell Rp 123 miliar (7/05).

Indeks saham MSCI Emerging Market menguat 1.3% menjadi 721.29 kemarin, mendapatkan sentimen positif analis asing kembali meningkatkan rating saham di sejumlah negara di Asia (Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas, RCM Asia Pacific) dan kenaikan harga komoditi yang mengangkat saham komoditi di Asia.

IHSG Outlook
Kekhawatiran kondisi overbought membayangi potensi kenaikan IHSG hari ini, meski “euphoria bull market” di sektor komoditi, mampu menopang kinerja IHSG pekan ini, terutama kemarin BNP Paribas menaikkan rating IHSG menjadi “neutral” dari “overweight” (target IHSG dinaikkan menjadi 2,200 dari 1,400), RCM Asia Pacific memperkirakan saham otomotif & property lokal akan meningkat (dampak penurunan suku bunga) dan Credit Suisse menaikkan rating saham Indonesia menjadi “overweight” dari “neutral.” Penguatan rupiah ke tertinggi Rp 10,380/dolar dan laporan dari BEI bahwa periode 27 April-1 Mei 2009, investor asing mencatat net buy Rp 1,30 triliun di pasar saham Indonesia dan posisi laba bersih asing di BEI sejak awal tahun tercatat sebesar Rp 3.72 triliun, ikut menopang indeks. Kenaikan saham komoditi, infrastruktur, industri dan saham lapis kedua (termasuk grup Bakrie) dapat mengangkat IHSG.

Stock Picks:

* GZCO
* JSMR

Global Outlook
Lebih baik dari perkiraan data tenaga kerja AS (jobless claims), kejutan bank sentral mengumumkan kebijakan quantitative easing senilai $ 80.5 miliar, kenaikan indeks komoditi CRB dan telah diantisipasi hasil Strest Test bank AS dan perkiraan tidak ada bank AS mengalami “insolvent”, seharusnya masih memberikan momentum kenaikan untuk saham regional Asia dan AS di akhir pekan ini, kendati harus diwaspadai kondisi teknikal yang overbought menjelang data tenaga kerja AS hari ini.

Technical Analysis:

Kondisi teknikal yang overbought harus diwaspadai, setelah karena adanya signal divergence di indikator ADX (meski trending up) dan stochastic (overbought) dan potensi rejection di diagonal triangle di 1,873 hari ini, seharusnya mendorong perkiraan potensi kenaikan IHSG akan terbatas, dan cenderung terkoreksi ke support di 1,783 (5-day MA)/1,703 (10-day MA), jika hari ini gagal ditutup menunjukkan pola bullish candle atau volume menunjukkan penurunan. Trend jangka pendek masih bullish selama bertahan diatas downtrend line di 1,672 dan diatas 200-day MA 1,588 untuk trend medium term. Meski target 1-bulan di 1,750 tercapai dan 3 bulan di 1,950 (50.0% fibo retracement) masih valid. Elliot wave menunjukkan sub wave v telah selesai, mengarah ke koreksi abc-wave 4 dalam primary wave C.
Resistance: 1883.39/1863.34/1854.72/1846.09/1834.67.PP 1823.24
Support : 1814.62/1805.99/1794.57/1783.14/1763.09
(Perkiraan Range Hari Ini 1,780-1,855)


www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id

Kondisi Overbought Regional Asia Dapat Picu Profit Taking

SSIM9
Commentary

Secara teknikal, SSIM9 masih berada dalam pola rising wedge, dengan indikator teknikal yang masih menunjukkan uptrend di ADX, stochastic crossing up & MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, meski pola candle abandoned baby yang seharusnya mendukung potensi bearish reversal, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini, karena trend jangka pendek masih bulish selama berada diatas 8,695 untuk target 9,498 dan bahkan 10,126 dalam periode 1-bulan. Sementara dalam chart ichimoku Kinko Hyo, menunjukkan Up kumo masih berada teritorial bullish, chinkou span trend up dan tenkan sen trend up di support 8,962, jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut , indeks dapat terkoreksi ke trendline 8,695. Perkiraan range hari ini: 9000-9600

Rekomendasi : Buy 9110 target 9450, stop 100p (+180p), buy break 9,460 target 9,650 stop 100p

KSM9
Commentary

Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend, karena indeks berada dalam rising wedge, meski mulai mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle two crows yang seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini, didukung oleh kegagalan indeks ditutup diatas downtrend line di 181.05 dalam 2 hari terakhir, meski potensi penurunanpun terbatas karena kondisi teknikal stochastic crossing up di teritorial positif, MACD bulliosh, ADX trending up, seharusnya masih mendukung range trading dalam range 3 hari lalu. Trend dapat berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 173.05 (trendline support), menggagalkan skenario bullish di bulan ini untuk target 187.82 (100.0 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini: 177-182.50

Rekomendasi : Sell 182 target 179.00 stop 183.50 (buy break target 186.00), stop 100 (+190), sell break 178.00 target 175.00 stop 100p (trailing stop di 178 jika harga turun dibawah 176.00).

HSIJ9
Commentary

Secara teknikal, HSIK9 masih berada dalam trend bullish, karena indeks berada dalam diagonal triangle yang seharusnya mendukung kenaikan ke target 17,410 (100.0 FE)/17,815 (trendline), selama ditutup harian di 16,318 (5-day MA) dan 200-day MA di 16,150 yang merupakan support long term. Pola candle bullish diikuti indikator stochastic, ADX, MACD masih menunjukkan uptrend yang kuat, meski indikator Ichimoku Kinko Hyo menunjukkan Up kumo masih berada teritorial bullish, chinkou span trend up dan tenkan sen trend up di support 16,625. Potensi koreksi minor dapat terjadi jika indeks menembus support 16,700, untuk target 16,200 (61.8 FE). Perkiraan range hari ini : 16700-17400.

Rekomendasi : Sell 17400 target 16,700 (or closing), atau sell break low 16,680 target 16200, stop 100 poin. (-100p)

Stock Market Trends for May 2009- Buying Bear Market Rallies

By: Hans_Wagner
Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAnalyzing monthly stock market trends uses the S&P 500 charts to indicate important trend lines. Trend following is a proven strategy to beat the market and grow your stock portfolio. Technical analysis provides the tools to analyze and identify trends in the stock market. Since the S&P 500 trend line chart is the one used by professional traders for their analysis, it is important to understand how it is performing.The analysis of the S&P 500 trend line starts with the 20-year monthly view of the S&P 500 chart. Next, we examine the weekly chart of the S&P 500 trends to get a shorter-term view. Finally, we analyze the one-year daily chart of the S&P 500 trends to get an even shorter term view. On each version of the charts of the S&P 500 trend line, the view and the value of the indicators change, as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart.Starting with the monthly view of the S&P 500 trend chart, the bull market of the last five years turned down, as the index fell below the 24-month exponential moving average. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is below 50, indicating a downtrend is in place. The Moving Average convergence Divergence (MACD) is also below zero, a sign stock market trend has reversed and we have entered a bear market. Finally, the Slow Stochastic fell through zero, another sign of a bear market.

The analysis of the monthly trends of the S&P 500 chart shows we remain in a bear market with key resistance at the 24-month exponential moving average. In addition, support at the 25 year rising S&P 500 trend line has been tested and held, so far. However, the Slow Stochastic is testing the 20 level. If it is able to stay above 20, it is an early buy sign.The three year weekly S&P 500 trend line chart shows more closely the transition from a bull to a bear stock market. So far, the descending trend line and the 50-week moving average are the primary resistance levels for this view of the bear market.Earlier this year the S&P 500 fell through support at the 800 level down to the 650 area. The S&P 500 trend then reversed course, pushed through the 800 level and then the small descending trend line. There is resistance at the 940 and the 970 areas that need to be overcome.From the chart, it looks like the S&P 500 trend line will continue to rise to test 940, possibly the 970 levels and the 50-week moving average. It will be a number of weeks before we see a test of the 50-week moving average. To accomplish this, volume needs to be above average.

RSI is testing the crossover 50 level. If it can rise above that level and stay there, then it will be a sign the up trend continues. The MACD turned up through the nine-week moving average, a buy sign and it is still trending up, which is a positive sign. In addition, the MACD showed positive divergence indicating the uptrend would begin. Slow Stochastic turned up through 20, a sign the trend on the S&P 500 chart will continue to move up.Long term, the trend line of the S&P 500 chart is still down. The weekly pattern indicates the S&P 500 trend line will continue to rise as long as volume moves above the 50-week average. We could see a test of the 50-week moving average, as we indicated in our April Stock Market Trends report.The daily S&P 500 is a bit complicated as many indicators say the market is overbought, yet the rally that began in early March continues. There is resistance at the 940 level and then the 200-day moving average. For this rally to climbing there needs to be more buying volume. However, volume has been trailing off, which is not a good sign for the market for this rally. Watch for above average buying volume as a sign the S&P 500 will continue this up trend. Otherwise, we should expect a pull back.
















RSI is above 50 indicating an up trend. The MACD is at a high point where it normally turns down. This means we are more likely to see a pull back in the near future. The Slow Stochastic is above 80 where it will turn down giving a sell sign. These are the signs that the market is overbought, yet it can continue to rise for a while.In bear markets, it is best to be nimble as changes in the trend can and do take place quickly. Investors are wise to use risk protection such as trailing stops, protective put options and even covered call options. On a sign the market is unable to rise through resistance, you might consider buying the short and ultra short Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).The S&P 500 is starting to set up a basing pattern, which is necessary before it can start a new bull market. Horizontal support at the lows and horizontal resistance at the highs form a basing pattern. This is a positive longer term and creates buying opportunities on price dips.Given this analysis of the S&P 500 trend line charts, it is important to have your portfolio positioned for a bear market rally that might rise to the 940 area. If the S&P 500 trend line can reach this level, it will be time to add further down side protection and/or reduce your long positions. A rally to this level over the next few weeks increases the risk of a down turn as we remain in an overall bear market.

The charts of the S&P 500 trend line provide a good way for investors to align their portfolios with the overall market trends.Bear market rallies offer investors a good time to buy stocks and ETFs in leading sectors. Look to buy on dips in the price of the S&P 500 trend charts during a bear market rally. Be sure to use proper capital management techniques including trailing stops, protective puts and covered calls. Once the rally ends take profits and reduce your long positions. Keep in mind, Warren Buffett's first rule of investing is to not loose money. Patience is key when markets are moving down.

BNP Paribas Raised Indonesia, Taiwan, India Stocks

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Taiwan, India and Indonesia stocks were raised to “overweight” at BNP Paribas, which cited higher earnings estimates, increased fund inflows and improving demand for riskier assets.

The brokerage also raised its 12-month estimate for the MSCI AC Asia-Pacific excluding Japan Index to 440 from an earlier estimate of 320, according to a report by Clive McDonnell, BNP’s head of equity strategy in Asia. The forecast represents a 22 percent gain from yesterday’s close.

The MSCI regional index rose 0.4 percent to 361.86 as of 2:21 p.m. in Singapore today. It has jumped 26 percent this year on speculation that stimulus spending by governments from the U.S. to China will bolster global economic growth, after tumbling a record 54 percent in 2008.“Asian markets are benefiting from substantial capital inflows as investor risk appetite increases,” McDonnell wrote. “The next six months will be characterized by market expectations for increased earnings forecasts.”Taiwan and India were upgraded from “neutral,” while Indonesia’s rating was raised from “underweight.” The brokerage also has “overweight” recommendations for shares in South Korea, China and Hong Kong, the report said.

Taiwan, China
Taiwan’s Taiex index may rise to 7,800 as improving ties with China draw funds into the island’s stock market and as earnings estimates rise at the fastest pace in the region, McDonnell wrote. The index estimate is 19 percent higher than yesterday’s closing level and compares with BNP’s March estimate of 5,600.Taiwan and China are planning to permit trading of each others’ shares for the first time as ties improve 60 years after their civil war ended. A so-called trading platform may list as many as 30 stocks from each market, Schive Chi, chairman of the Taiwan Stock Exchange, said in a May 4 interview. Now, investors are restricted from directly investing in each others’ equities.The two economies agreed to double weekly flights and lift restrictions on investments in banks as relations that broke when the Communist Party took power in 1949 thaw. China Mobile Ltd. became the first state-owned company to invest directly in Taiwan on April 29, sending the Taiex index up 18 percent.In India, the benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index may climb to 15,000, 25 percent higher than yesterday’s close, on optimism foreign capital will be able to service the country’s deficits and that earnings will decline less than earlier expected. The brokerage had raised its estimate for the Sensex to 12,300 last month.

Indonesia
The Indonesian benchmark Jakarta Composite Index may rally to 2,200, with so-called fair value earnings forecast to rise 28 percent this year, following a 2 percent decline in 2008, McDonnell wrote. The brokerage had a 12-month index target of 1,400, according to a March report. The Jakarta Composite has gained 35 percent this year, the third-best performer in Asia, while Taiwan’s Taiex has rallied 43 percent, the region’s largest gain. The Sensex has risen 25 percent this year.“The common thread across these three upgrades is increased liquidity flows and a better than expected outlook for earnings,” McDonnell wrote.

Indonesia’s Property, Auto Stocks to Gain, RCM Says

(Bloomberg) -- Indonesian property developers and automobile distributors may rise as the central bank cuts interest rates to spur growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, according to RCM Asia Pacific Ltd.Policy makers lowered the benchmark lending rate on May 5 to 7.25 percent, a sixth straight monthly reduction. Indonesia has “a lot more room” to reduce borrowing costs, which will boost domestic demand for housing, cars and motorbikes, said Ho Yin Pong.“Previously, the government was constrained by high inflation,” Pong, Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at RCM Asia Pacific, said yesterday in a phone interview. Pong’s Allianz RCM Indonesia Fund has beaten 95 percent of 505 Indonesia funds this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.“Now that inflation has come down and the rupiah has strengthened, the central bank will have a lot more leeway to stimulate the economy,” Pong said.

Inflation may slow to below 5 percent in June, central bank Deputy Governor Hartadi Sarwono said May 2, after consumer prices rose 7.3 percent in April, the least in 16 months. Indonesia’s rupiah has gained 6.6 percent this year, the best performance of Asia’s 10 most-traded currencies outside Japan.Indonesia needs to rely on domestic demand to rekindle growth as shipments and investment fall, according to Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. Overseas sales from Indonesia dropped 28.8 percent in March from a year earlier to $8.54 billion, following a 32.8 percent decline in February.

More Rate Cuts
The central bank will reduce borrowing costs by at least 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, this year, according to PT Trimegah Securities and PT Bank UOB Buana. PT Kim Eng Securities forecasts the rate will fall another 75 basis points.
Shares of PT Astra International, which sells Toyota Motor Corp.’s cars in the country, have already rallied 80 percent this year, after plunging 61 percent in 2008. The stock is among the fund’s top holdings, according to a March 31 RCM statement.The Jakarta Composite Index has gained 23 percent in the past month, Asia’s second-best performer, driving its annual increase to 33 percent and valuations to 18.1 times earnings. That’s the most expensive since March 2008 and 30 percent more than stocks traded on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.The measure rose 2.1 percent to 1,835.54 as of 9:51 a.m. Jakarta time, set for its highest since Sept. 26.

Not Cheaper
“Valuations have come up and they’re not necessarily cheaper than other markets,” Mark Mobius, who helps manage $20 billion in emerging-market assets at San Mateo, California-based Templeton Asset Management Ltd., said May 4.Credit Suisse Group raised Indonesia to “overweight” from “neutral,” as the market is the second-most undervalued in the region and “home to some of the cheap cyclical” stocks. Credit Suisse cites Astra, PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s biggest coal miner, and PT United Tractors, the nation’s largest heavy equipment seller, as its top picks in a note today.The Jakarta Composite may rally to 2,200, with the so- called fair value earnings forecast to rise 28 percent this year, following a 2 percent decline in 2008, BNP Paribas said in a report distributed by e-mail today. The brokerage had a 12-month index target of 1,400, according to a March report.

Overseas investors may be tempted to increase their shareholdings of Indonesian stocks if President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono wins a second term in office this year, Pong said.“Regional and global investors want to see continuity,” said Pong. “A lot of money is waiting on the sidelines.”

Cocoa Rises to One-Week Peak in London on Indonesia Speculation

(Bloomberg) -- Cocoa rose to its highest in a week in London on speculation that lower shipments from Indonesia, the world’s third-biggest grower, may boost prices further.Exports from South and Central Sulawesi provinces, which account for about four-fifths of Indonesia’s total output, fell 28 percent on the month to 8,373 metric tons in April and slid 18 percent to 54,186 tons in this year’s first four months, the Indonesian Cocoa Association said today. Sales were 19,682 tons in April 2008, it said.“There were only a few beans left for export in April,” Herman Agan, head of the association’s Central Sulawesi branch, said by phone from Palu. “We’ve started the main harvests, and exports may pick up in the middle of this month.”

Cocoa for July delivery, the most actively traded contract, climbed 26 pounds, or 1.6 percent, to the day’s peak of 1,702 pounds ($2,565) a ton on the Liffe exchange at noon local time. That was the highest intraday price since May 1. The chocolate ingredient led gains in 2008 on the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index.Indonesia harvests most of its beans from April to July. The global cocoa market is headed for its third straight deficit this year.Fortis Bank yesterday predicted a “global market being in balance in the 2008-09 season, with a 64,000-ton deficit for 2009-10 -- a relatively modest reduction from the 101,000-ton deficit we estimated in March.”

Sugar, Coffee
Among other agricultural commodities traded on Liffe, white sugar for August delivery climbed $2, or 0.5 percent, to $451.40 a ton. The sweetener rose for a sixth straight day in London yesterday to close at its highest since July 2006. Refined sugar has advanced 34 percent this year.Raw sugar for July delivery rose 1.3 percent to 15.56 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Unrefined sweetener has added 30 percent this year. Prices may gain another 30 percent in 2009’s last quarter and next year’s first three months to as much as 20 cents, the highest since 1981, said Michael McDougall, a senior vice president at Newedge USA LLC.Robusta coffee for July delivery fell $3, or 0.2 percent, to $1,510 a ton.

Crude palm oil futures higher on technical rebound

Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed higher yesterday in active trading on technical rebound, dealers said.They said the market managed to recover from yesterday’s losses as concerns over supply shortage helped to boost the prices.A dealer said the local CPO market also took the cue from the firmer prices of soyabean overnight.“Market sentiment was generally positive amid strong exports and low stocks level,” he said.At the close, May 2009 delivery climbed RM56 to settle at RM2,833 per tonne.

June 2009 contract advanced RM59 to RM2,754 per tonne while both July 2009 and August 2009 contracts surged RM55 each to RM2,680 per tonne and RM2,625 per tonne respectively.Volume rose to 28,609 lots from 22,092 lots on Tuesday. Open interests, however, fell to 82,302 contracts from 83,059 contracts previously.On the physical market, May South rose to RM2,850 per tonne from RM2,800 the previous day.

Daily Technical Crude Oil

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
At this moment, intraday bias in crude oil remains on the upside with 52.39 minor support intact. As mentioned before, sustained break of 54.66 resistance will confirm that whole rally from 33.2 has resumed and should target 60 psychological level, which is close to 23.6% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 60.12. On the downside, below 52.39 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral first and bring retreat.

But downside should be contained above 48.00 support and bring rise resumption.In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 33.2 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. Current development favors strong rebound towards 55 weeks EMA at 68.29. However, failure at this current level, followed by break of 41.6 fibo support, will argue that rise from 33.2 is just part of a medium term sideway consolidation pattern, with another down leg just in the beginning.

Technical Analysis: Thai Stocks Surge, Ignore Bollinger Signals:Taiwan ‘Pain Trade’ Will Extend Stock Rally

(Bloomberg) -- Thai stock trading momentum will drive the benchmark index 13 percent higher in two months even after it triggered Bollinger Band sell signals for three straight days, Chart Partners Group Ltd. said. The SET Index will rise to 600 by July, Thomas Schroeder, managing director of Chart Partners in Bangkok, said in an interview yesterday. It was at 529.65 at 11:47 a.m. local time. Technical analysts, who make predictions based on price and volume charts, must overlook breaches of the so-called Bollinger Upper Band the past three days, Schroeder said.“The Thai market really wants to go up as it keeps breaking the key resistance level,” Schroeder said. The resistance is “unclear” now because “people who are placing their buying orders don’t care what prices they get.”Trading turnover on the Stock Exchange of Thailand yesterday jumped to 31 billion baht ($857 million), the highest since May 22, 2008. The SET Index has gained 7.3 percent this week, set for its best weekly performance in six months.

Bollinger bands are designed to alert investors when a security rises too high or falls too low by comparing its price to the average level over the past 20 days. If the stock is 95 percent away from the average, a rebound or decline may be at hand, Bollinger’s model says.The SET Index rose for a fifth day, climbing 1 percent to 528.12 today, the highest since Oct. 7. The gauge has gained 16 percent this year, the second-worst performer among six Southeast Asian countries that have stock markets. Vietnam’s index is the region’s worst performer, with a 15 percent gain.
Thailand’s “rally momentum has just started” as the index catches up with gains in other Asian markets, said Schroeder, who expects the gauge to reach 550 this month.
The “market appears to be a laggard and may have a late rally,” he said. “We expect other Asian markets such as Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan to peak in June after rising so much. We will see more money coming in as investors have to rotate their money to somewhere.”

Taiwan

Taiwan’s stock market rally will continue as global fund managers, who had shunned the island, buy shares to avoid lagging further behind their benchmark, F&C Asset Management said.“Taiwan is what I would call the ultimate pain trade,” Jeffrey Chowdhry, London-based head of emerging-market equities at F&C, which oversees about $135 billion, said in an interview. “Foreign investors have been massively underweight.”The benchmark Taiex index has jumped 17 percent since April 29, when Taiwan said Chinese investments will be allowed for the first time since a civil war ended in 1949. The island’s stocks are the world’s second-best performer since then on speculation six decades of hostility with the Communist mainland are over, enabling deeper ties with the world’s third-biggest economy.Taiwan was the biggest consensus “underweight” market among global emerging-market fund managers in March, based on the latest data, according to Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research firm EPFR Global and New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. That means the funds held fewer Taiwan shares than represented in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a benchmark for stocks in 23 developing nations.

China Mobile Ltd. on April 29 said it agreed to buy 12 percent of Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., while Taiwan said it will let mainland Chinese institutional investors apply the next day to directly buy shares and futures listed on the island’s bourses. Taiex shares soared the most since 1991 on April 30.“People are realizing that this China, Taiwan rapport is a long-term, secular issue,” Chowdhry said yesterday. “They now need to think about Taiwan being part of greater China.”
Foreign investors have started pouring money into Taiwan stocks. They made NT$96.5 billion ($2.9 billion) of net purchases during the past four days, compared with NT$17.4 billion of purchases from the start of this year to April 29, according to Taiwan Stock Exchange data compiled by Bloomberg.Singapore’s Straits Times Index the best performer among 85 indexes tracked globally by Bloomberg since April 29, as bank earnings beat analysts estimates.

Platinum Faces ‘Bear Trend,’ StanChart Says: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Platinum may decline toward $800 an ounce, reversing this year’s 23 percent gain, as the metal slumps into a “bear trend,” Standard Chartered Bank forecast, citing trading patterns.“Spot platinum is resuming the bear trend, with trendline support giving way and a slide below $1,002 and $999 to build,” David Barclay, the bank’s commodity strategist, wrote in a report yesterday. “A break down towards $800 should follow.”So-called trendlines, used to determine momentum, are found by connecting an asset’s high prices over a period, and its lower prices to form a channel. Technical analysis is founded on the assumption that an asset’s past trading patterns may be used to predict future moves.Platinum for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.8 percent to $1,148.50 an ounce, and was at $1,147 at 8:40 a.m. Singapore time. The metal hasn’t traded at $800 an ounce since Dec. 12, and last fell below $1,000 an ounce on Feb. 10.

Most of the metal’s so-called daily momentum indicators such as the 14-day relative strength index and the stochastic oscillator are bearish, London-based Barclay wrote. The 50-week momentum oscillator is also starting to turn lower after nearly reaching zero, and should add “bear pressure,” he wrote.The 250-day moving average of $1,266.99 is “looming above” the 20-day and 60-day moving averages, which highlights the potential for declines, the report said. “The break down in the spot metal price is consistent with the long term trend -- down,” wrote Barclay.

Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Consolidating slightly unsteadily above the top of the 'cloud' and the nine-day moving average, though lagging Pacific rim currencies. Similar patterns can be seen in a series of major currencies suggesting generalised US dollar weakness this month, probably a lot longer than that. Eventually the Euro should be dragged higher by the others.Strategy: Buy at 1.3300, adding to 1.3245; stop below 1.3090. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3450 for 1.3575/1.3600 and more further out
Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3277 " 1.3336
1.32 1.3385
1.3165 1.3439
1.3100/1.3090* 1.352
1.3 1.3582*
GBPUSD
Comment: Consolidating at the very top of this year's trading band and because we have held in such a tiny range for the last two days a break higher is imminent. Expect another squeeze higher this week and maybe all month, increasing as more currencies start seriously pulling in the same direction. Funny how silent all the voices trashing UK plc have become, and consensus opinion now is that Sterling is undervalued.Strategy: Buy at 1.5145; stop below 1.4800. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5175 for 1.5375 short term and then 1.5725/1.5800.
Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.5100 " 1.5165*
1.499 1.52
1.4835 1.5285
1.47 1.5375*
1.4500* 1.5535
USDJPY
Comment: Because major currencies are not gaining against the US dollar, but smaller ones are, this has not lit up on many investors' radar. We continue to favour generalised US dollar weakness this year, something which may help to cap USD/JPY below 99.50. Today we favour a drop to the 9-day moving average at 97.60 and probably the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud' this weekend.Strategy: Attempt shorts at 98.55, adding to 99.00; stop above 99.85. Short term target 97.65, maybe 97.15
Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
98.30 " 98.85
97.94 99.08
97.6 99.57/99.77**
97.15/96.90* 100
96 100.74
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee:Rupee is holding strong as per our expectation. Breaking of 49.20 can allow it to test 48.80 in the near term. Exporters are adivised to sell dollars at every rise. The election results are awaited on 16th May which can decide the next direction for local unit. (USD/INR : 49.40). Bullish
Euro: Euro surged to 1.3374 from 1.3245 lows yesterday as expected. It is holding and trading above the important cluster support coming around 1.3190 - 1.3227 with the daily charts indicating strong selling pressure. ECB meeting is scheduled today and 25bps cut is expected. Cautious shorts after the data around 1.34 for 80-90 pips could be considered. (Eur/Usd:1.3295). Bullish ONLY above 1.3190.
Pound: Cable witnessed a sideways trading of 160 pips below the previous high of 1.5161. Strong support from 21 4-hourly EMA comes in at 1.5025, holding above which can bring a pull back to 1.5150 and then to 1.5350 levels. Look for buying cable around those levels for 100 pips. Alternatively, sell around 1.53 levels for 100-150 pips as the charts are reaching the overbought region. (Gbp/Usd: 1.5127). Bullish
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair shed 110 pips from the day's high of 99.07 yesterday. The daily charts are showing a strong selling with support at 97.60 where going long on the pair could be considered for 80-100 pips. Alternatively, look for selling opportunities above 99.00 for 100 pips . Bearish (Usd/Jpy: 98.55).
Australian Dollar: Aussie surged 170 pips yesterday and continues to trade higher in the morning trade today at 0.7535. All the major charts are getting overbought with strong support coming at 0.7275 (38.2% Retracement of the rise & 200 Daily EMA). Selling around 0.7550 for 70-80 pips could be considered. (Aud/Usd: 0.7528).
Gold: Gold moved $17 sideways yesterday. The view for gold still remains bullish as far as $895 support is strong. Above $915, Gold may surge to $926. Near term bias for Gold - Range-bound . (Gold: $911.60)
Dollar index: The Dollar Index chart is poised in the over-sold region and is indicating a range-bound session for the US currency. Support of 84 is holding strong momemtarily. (84.14). RANGE-BOUND to Bearish.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus Dollar pair continued to trade around the pivotal resistance at 1.3320 as the key resistance for the upside channel at 1.3465 remains intact. The short term trend is still the upside as trading maintains levels above the 1.3100 support level where targets are at 1.3585 and 1.3700.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2800 and the key resistance at 1.3585. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
Support: 1.3245, 1.3190, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3010
Resistance: 1.3320, 1.3365, 1.3430, 1.3465, 1.3525
Recommendation: Accordig to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3320 with targets at 1.3465 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3235
GBP
After breaching the key resistance yesterday at 1.5085, the cable traded around this level with gradual inclines among a minor ascending channel with short term targets near 1.5900. The 1.5045 level must remain intact for the incline to continue on the intraday basis yet note that the BoE rate decision to be released at 11:00 GMT may result in fluctuations in the markets. On the short term, the 1.4765 level must remain intact.The trading range for today is among the key support 1.4240 and the key resistance at 1.5400. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440
Support: 1.5045, 1.5010, 1.4950, 1.4915, 1.4845
Resistance: 1.5165, 1.5190, 1.5270, 1.5295, 1.5350
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.5165 with targets at 1.5295 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.5045
JPY
The 38.2% correct was able to halt further declines for the USD/JPY pair as trading remains within narrow ranges as seen in the above image yet we still expect further inclines towards 99.55 followed by 103.00 on the short term a far as trading remains above 96.00.The trading range for today is among the key support at 96.00 and the key resistance at 103.00. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 98.05, 97.15, 96.35, 95.90, 95.45
Resistance: 98.65, 99.55, 100.25, 100.70, 101.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 98.05 with targets at 99.55 and stop loss with four hour closing below 97.15
CHF
The Dollar versus Swissy continues to trade near critical resistance levels around 1.1390 – 1.1355 where we see on the above chart that we may witness a vigorous move after breaching either level of the triangle. On the other hand we still expect further declines targeting 1.1270 and 1.1165 respectively before extending towards 1.0980. This decline remains as far as 1.1520 is intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0980 and the key resistance at 1.1800. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with target at 1.2245
Support: 1.1300, 1.1270, 1.1240, 1.1165, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1390, 1.1420, 1.1520, 1.1585, 1.1645
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1355 with targets at 1.1270 and 1.1156 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1520

S&P 500: Will The 200-Day Moving Average Be A Breakout Point Or Resistance?

By Joseph Meth on May 7, 2009
I’m so frightened. The S&P Index (^GSPC: 919.53 0.00 0.00%)with a close of 919.53 today (Wednesday) has finally just about closed the gap between itself and its 180-day moving average which today ended at 922.90 (for you purists, the traditional 200-day MA is at 954.77). A mere 3 point increase, or 0.37%, and the light will change from yellow to green according to my Market Timing Indicator. If that should happen, it will be the first time since almost exactly one year ago, on May 16, 2008, at the end of that Bear Trap Suckers’ Rally; it stayed green for only one day. The next previous time was December 26, 2007 when it first issued its warning of dire events to come.It’s unfolding just as I had imagined it might. For example, on December 14, 2008 in “What Does 2009 Look Like From This Vantage Point”, I wrote:

I’m sticking with the game plan; it’s worked so far. We’re going to let the market tell us when it’s no longer in pain and is recovering. Back-testing through nearly 45 years of stock market history, I’ve determined that there’s little risk of “recidivism” when the S&P 500 Index (now at 879) crosses above its 180-day moving average (now at 1197). I know it looks like quite a stretch but the market’s rapid descent beginning in August (38.71% between 8/11 to 11/21) is beginning to have a more pronounced impact on the moving averages and accelerating their convergence with the index itself someplace around 975-1000 sometime in March-May (in the absence of another leg down for the market). However, if the retest of the lows fails and the market declines further, below 752.44, then waiting for that confirmation signal will have paid off.

It’s been an interesting journey since December and we’ve finally arrived at the convergence, the crossroads. Moving Averages (MA’s) present a clearer picture of the general trend of a time series of values than the series itself by smoothing out its shorter term fluctuations and can be calculated on any time series of values. When it comes to the stock market, the most common MA’s are those for stock prices and market indexes; others include trading volume or other technical indicators.Last night, I attended a NY Investors Group meeting where it was pointed out that while the NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC: 1759.10 0.00 0.00%) had crossed above its 200-day MA, each of the S&P 500, DJ-30 and the Russell 2000 had not yet crossed but were quickly approaching their 200-day MA’s. The warning given, however, was that with the negative economic and financial backdrop, the 200-MA’s would serve as insurmountable resistance and the market would reverse direction and continue back down.

[As an aside, those in the metro-NY should check out the group. Daryl Montgomery, its leader, always has interesting guests and usually offers his views on recent news important to the market and his assessment of current state of the market. Last night, he interviewed William Cohan, author of "House of Cards: A Tale of Hubris and Wretched Excess on Wall Street".]The implication was striking in its unequivocal categorization of the 200-day MA as resistance, an impediment and obstacle to the market’s continued progress to health. It was in stark contrasted with my measured anticipation over the previous 6 months of a slow convergence of Index and its 200-day MA ending in the eventual cross over.
Now that it’s about to happen, my discipline will be saying its o.k. to jump in with both feet but I’ll be thinking of going in only waist deep (up to about 60% invested). There will be one last hurdle to cross, a neckline for the inverse head-and-shoulder pattern at around 950.

But first, we may need to suffer through the formation of the right-shoulder, similar to the formation on the left:
The pro’s can’t predict the future and I surely can’t. But I see this process possibly taking the summer (remember “sell in May and go away”) with the break above the neckline coming around Labor Day. In the interim, be prepared for the market to correct by 13% to the 800-850 area.Once these milestone are achieved, then there can be no question that the market will have turned, bulls will be in control of momentum and an true and rewarding uptrend will have been started. The market will have turned from its Accumulation to its Mark-up Phase and we will have survived a once-in-a-lifetime (we hope) Bear Market of collosal proportions.

U.S. Dollar Officially “Turns South”, And Euro To Benefit

By Sean Hyman on May 7, 2009 | More Posts By Sean Hyman
Today, as I was scanning through my charts, I noticed that the U.S. Dollar Index traded through its uptrend line and has now closed below it. Take a look at the chart below.The Dollar broadly breaks its Uptrend! Why would this be happening now? In the past week, we’ve had the G-7, Bernanke and Volcker all come out and basically say that the worst is behind us.On top of this, the “fear gauges” VIX, TED spread, LIBOR rate, etc., all point to the same thing. Fear is diminishing as markets stabilize. Therefore, there’s no incentive to stay in the defensive play of the greenback.Also, commodities have stabilized and risen lately. For instance, oil is no longer at its $33 low but now it’s holding around $55 a barrel.

Coast is Clear…time to Flee the Dollar!
So now that the “coast is clear” for the most part, traders are starting to inch back into foreign currencies that have had a history of higher yields. While many of these currencies aren’t “high yielding” now, they will be the first to be this way once the first wave of inflation returns (and traders know it). Therefore, they are positioning themselves ahead of the wave, like a surfer.Who’s the obvious beneficiary of this USD Index Breakdown?














As you can see from the chart, the U.S. Dollar Index is weighted heavily in the euro (57.6%).Therefore, when this index breaks, the first place we should look to is the EUR/USD pair. This is the first obvious beneficiary of “dollar weakness”.So take a look at the chart below and you will see what I’m talking about.

You will notice from the chart below that the EUR/USD is breaking higher even with its interest rate announcement just around the corner (on Thursday) as rates are expected to go from 1.25% down to 1.00%.EUR/USD breaks higher as the U.S. Dollar Index breaks its Uptrend!I think we could see some consolidation above the breakout while the market awaits the ECB’s rate decision. However, once that “unknown” is behind the market, I see the EUR/USD heading higher out of this 6 month consolidation!Once we get past the rate announcement and Trichet’s press conference, then the EUR/USD will be free to head higher overall.

Saham Komoditi & Infrastruktur Akan Menopang Uptrend IHSG

Market Review
IHSG mengalami kenaikan setelah sebelumnya mendapatkan aksi profit-taking di awal sesi perdagangan, berkat kenaikan saham di sektor komoditi pertambangan logam, batubara setelah harga minyak, nikel, emas dan cpo masih melanjutkan trend kenaikan jangka pendek. IHSG juga mendapatkan imbas positif dari kuatnya inflow ke pasar saham regional Asia (STI +5.05%, HSI +2.4%, Taiwan +2.9%) setelah sejumlah analis terkemuka meningkatkan rating saham Asia menjadi “overweight” di awal pekan. Meski laju kenaikan IHSG tertahan oleh penurunan saham di sektor finansial, industri yang mendapatkan tekanan paska BI rate kemarin dan laporan negatif dari isu sejumlah bank di AS memerlukan tambahan dana dalam hasil Strest Test AS besok. IHSG ditutup menguat 26.26 poin (+1.482%) di 1,772.07, nilai transaksi Rp 5.68 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net sell sebesar Rp 123 miliar kemarin.

Indeks saham MSCI menguat kemarin, berkat melonjaknya saham HSBC Hong Kong setelah JP Morgan menaikkan rating menjadi “neutral” dari “underweight” dan lebih baik dari perkiraan earning bank UOB dan Oversea Chinese Banking Corp Singapura, meredam kekhawatiran hasil strest test AS.

IHSG Outlook
IHSG dapat melanjutkan kenaikan hari ini, karena kondisi teknikal extend bullish dan kuatnya inflow ke pasar saham lokal didukung oleh kuatnya kenaikan regional Asia, kinerja emiten lokal di triwulan pertama 2009 yang solid, penguatan rupiah (Rp 10,400/U$) dan ekspektasi pemulihan ekonomi AS dan China lebih cepat dari perkiraan berkat stimulus sebesar ribuan triliuan dolar AS. Potensi kenaikan harga saham komoditi (energi, pertambangan dan perkebunan) dan industri masih berlanjut setelah harga minyak menembus $ 55/barel, harga emas mencapai $ 912/troy ons, harga CPO menembus MYR 2,800, DJIA menembus level 8,500 kemarin. Isu positif dari saham grup Bakrie dan Bimantara, dapat menopang kinerja IHSG. Meski kekhawatiran hasil Strest Test bank AS dan pertemuan ECB, dapat menahan kenaikan saham finansial.

Stock Picks:
* MNCN
* INCO

Global Outlook
Lebih baiknya data ADP employment AS bulan April (491,000 dari perkiraan 645,000) mendorong perkiraan lebih baik dari perkiraan data Non Farm Payroll AS (-610.000) dirilis hari Jumat, menunjukkan bahwa pasar tenaga kerja AS mulai stabil, diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi, pemulihan data ekonomi & solidnya earnings saham global, serta sejumlah analis menaikkan rating saham Asia, ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada saham Asia pada akhir pekan ini. Meski hasil Strest Test 19 bank AS dapat membebani laju kenaikan indeks saham global hari ini.

Technical Analysis:
IHSG masih menunjukkan pola kenaikan karena trend jangka pendek dan jangka menengah masih extend bullish, menggagalkan skenario penurunan kemarin berkat pola candle evening star 2 hari lalu. Indikator teknikal MACD masih uptrend, stochastic uptrend kendati berada di teritorial overbought, ADX menunjukkan trending up yang kuat, masih ditutup diatas 5-day MA di (1,762) dan 200-day MA di 1,592, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini, untuk target trendline dalam diagonal triangle di 1,854/1,883 bahkan target 3-bulan di 1,953 (50% Fibonacci Retracement), selama uptrend line di 1,654 tidak ditembus. Elliot wave menunjukkan sub wave v telah selesai, mengarah ke koreksi abc-wave 4 dalam primary wave C.
Resistance: 1863.38/1844.12/1824.87/1811.60. PP 1786.36
Support : 1779.73/1773.09/1760.47/1747.85/1728.59
(Perkiraan Range Hari Ini 1,775-1,845)

www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id

Potensi Kenaikan Regional Asia Terbatas

SSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9020 8835 9065 8750 9140 8985 9220 8570 8700 8860 9150 9275 9440
Commentary

Secara teknikal, SSIM9 masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, didukung dengan pola candle three white soldier, MACD line mengarah naik, ADX mulai terlihat naik, dan stochastic masih berada di teritorial bullish (diatas level 50). Kenaikan harga Jumat (01/05) tepat mendapatkan rejection di 9,118, bilamana break akan mendorong indeks mengarah ke target berikutnya di 9,464 (resistance line) setelah ditutup diatas downtrend line di 9,040, mendukung kenaikan pada pekan ini. Penutupan indeks dibawah 8,577 (support line) dapat memutarbalikkan trend jangka pendek menjadi bearish.

Rekomendasi : Buy break 9,120 target 9300, stop 100p (+60p), sell 9,460 target 9,000 stop 100p

KSM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
179.00 178.5 181.25 177.5 181.2 178.1 182.2 174.5 176.2 177.6 180.8 182.5 183.9
Commentary

Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berpotensi melanjutkan kenaikan hari ini, berkat formasi uptrend didukung oleh indikator teknikal yang bullish, seperti ADX trend up, stochastic crossing di teritorial bullish, MACD masih bullish, meski laju kenaikan terbatas berkat pola candle spinning top dan rejection di FE 100.0 dan trendline di 181.20. bilamana ditutup di level tersebut, indeks dapat mengarah ke target 161.8 FE di 186.35. sementara untuk mebalikkan trend bullish, indeks harus ditutup dibawah support line 170.24 untuk target 162.96/156.17. Perkiraan range Rabu besok: 177-183.00

Rekomendasi : Sell 183.50 target 180.00 stop 100 (+190), sell break 178.00 target 175.30 stop 100p. (-100p)


HSIJ9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
16635 16094 16485 15994 16563 16172 16663 14960 15236 15731 16502 16778 17273
Commentary

Secara teknikal, HSIK9 masih berada dalam trend bullish, terutama saat ini berada dalam pola ascending triangle, didukung oleh kondisi indikator yang mulai menunjukkan potensi divergence kendati masih berada di teritorial bullish, seperti adx, stochastic, MACD, yang masih terlihat memiliki potensi kenaikan pada hari ini, setelah ditutup diatas trendline 16,538 untuk target 16,798 (resistance line-ascending triangle) dan 17,210 (100 FE) selama berada di atas 15867 (5-day MA). Trend berbalik bullish jika pada hari ini kembali ditutup di atas 200-day MA di 16,110 untuk hari ke-2. Jika gagal, indeks akan menunjukkan potensial bearish divergence dapat dapat terkoreksi ke support 15210/15035 (5 day MA). Perkiraan range hari ini : 16300-16850.


Rekomendasi : Sell 16790 target 16400, stop 100 poin. sell break 16,060 target 15700 stop 100p. (-100+300p)

Why This Is Still A Bear Market Rally

By Guy Lerner on May 6, 2009
Since the equity markets bottomed on March 9, I have always been very careful to point out that the current rally is a bear market rally. In other words, when all is said and done, I believe that the current intermediate uptrend will be viewed as counter trend rally within an ongoing bear market. It has been my expectation that the current intermediate up trend has a high likelihood of rolling over in the next couple of weeks.With the market’s recent lift, I have received several emails asking me: when will I throw in the towel and call this a new bull market?

Traditionally, many define bull and bear markets as a percentage gain or loss from a certain point. For example, a 20% gain from the bottom would be a new bull market. By this measure over the past 12 months, we have had 2 bear markets and 2 bull markets when considering the price action in the S&P500 (^GSPC: 903.80 0.00 0.00%). This is kind of silly, and for my purpose, this is not a particularly useful metric. Then again embracing the “traditions” of Wall Street is not the way to make money.So how will I define a new bull market? In other words, when will I give up on this bear market rally nonsense, declare the bear is dead and start embracing the “bull” and this rally? Let me take you through my process of how I would define a new bull market. From a technical perspective, I like to see the market get into a “position” that has the potential to launch a new bull market. In other words, the “next big thing” indicator has to cycle into position or the price action has to consolidate into a narrow trading range.

Why do I want this to happen? Because from 1927 to the present, every major move but one in the Dow Jones Industrial Index (^DJI: 8410.65 -16.09 -0.19%) has seen 1 of 2 things occur from a price perspective: 1) the “next big thing” indicator cycles into the alert zone where there is a high likelihood of new secular trend occurring; or 2) prices went through a prolong consolidation period before heading higher.
This can be seen in the next series of figures, which show every major market bottom in the $DJIA going back to 1927. The “next big thing” indicator is in the middle panel, and the indicator in the lower panel looks for statistically relevant consolidation in prices. These are the launching pads to a new bull market. There has been only exception and this was the 1963 bottom.This is pretty consistent stuff across multiple asset classes (although I have only shown equities here), and all I am trying to do is identify the potential for a secular trend change in an asset. These indicators don’t identify market bottoms. They identify the possibility for secular trend change, and being with the longer term trend is very, very important to success in the markets.So once I identify an asset about to undergo a secular trend change, then I look for technical patterns to enter into that market, and these could be as simple as a monthly close over the simple 10 month moving average. I did allude to several “set ups” in these two articles: 1) “4 Sectors That Could Be The Next Bull Market Leaders” ; and 2) “Add These 2 Sectors To Your Watchlist”.

So Why No Bull Market?
Neither the Dow Industrials, S&P500, NASDAQ (^IXIC: 1754.12 0.00 0.00%), or NASDAQ 100 (^NDX: 1423.81 0.00 0.00%) is in a position to undergo a secular trend change. They are close but still it is no cigar. On the other hand, the Russell 2000 has entered that potential zone last month, and this can be seen in figure 11.

Figure 11. $RUT.X/ monthly

So this is my first concern about the current rally. The markets just aren’t ready for a new up trend. This is not the launching pad for a new bull market.

My second reason for not making the bull market call has to do with the structure of the price action itself. In most instances of a market bottom, I can find a prior pivot point that has acted as resistance, and prices will trade below and then above this key level thus confirming the turn in the market from bear to bull. Or there is a close above a down trend line formed by two prior pivot points. The monthly chart of the AMEX Airline Index (figure 12, symbol: $XAL.X), which I highlighted several times this past month, is an example of a close above a prior pivot low point and above a down sloping trend line.

Figure 12. $XAL.X/ monthly

Since the market top in October, 2007, the price action has been more of unraveling than a stair step down. Essentially, there are no pivot points from which I can gauge the current price action. See figure 13 a monthly chart of the S&P500. All I can say about the last three months is that it is looking very “V” like.

Figure 13. S&P500/ monthly

Summary: I have provided you with two criteria that I would like to see before I make “the call” that we are in a new bull market. Presently, these conditions have not been met, so in my book, this is still a bear market rally.

Yet I know that Mr. Market doesn’t usually consult with me, and I am well aware that a bull market can start without my criteria being met. The market seems to have a way of spoiling the best of plans. So I still must be prepared for the possibility that my indicators and tools just aren’t sensitive enough to detect a new bull market.

If this turns out to be the case, then I would “throw in the towel” if the S&P500 closed about its simple 10 month moving average on an end of month closing basis. Mebane Faber, from the World Beta Blog, has presented a very simple (yet effective) timing system that utilizes the simple 10 month moving average. If the S&P500 were to keep rising and print a monthly close above its simple 10 month moving average, then I would call this a new bull market. I will also point out that no major index has yet to end the month above its simple 10 month moving average.

Until then, I still believe we are in a bear market. Until my indicators give the signal, I still don’t believe the potential for a new bull market exists. The possibililty of a new bull market is always present, but the probality at this point in time seems rather remote.

Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Gold: Gold maintains its bullish bias as it gained nearly $20 yesterday and is now around $902. Further rally can be seen till the time $895 is held. Medium term Gold bullish. Bullish (Gold: $902.60)
Dollar index : The Dollar Index marginally broke past the support of 84 yesterday as the USD shed against the majors and charts are now neutrally poised indicating a slight range-bound session. A range-bound session can be expected from DI. (84.45). RANGE-BOUND to Bearish
Mizuho Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Holding above the top of the 'cloud' and the nine-day moving average, though lagging Pacific rim currencies. Similar patterns can be seen in a series of major currencies suggesting generalised US dollar weakness this month, probably a lot longer than that.Strategy: Buy at 1.3285; stop below 1.3090. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3450 for 1.3575/1.3600 and more further out.
Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3245 " 1.3331
1.32 1.3385
1.3165 1.3439
1.3100/1.3090* 1.352
1.3 1.3582*
GBPUSD
Comment: The strongest daily close since early January and some other currencies are doing something similar. Expect another squeeze higher this week and maybe all month, increasing as more currencies start seriously pulling in the same direction.
Strategy: Buy at 1.5075/1.5000; stop below 1.4700. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.5175 for 1.5375 short term and then 1.5725/1.5800.Direction of Trade: →↗
Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4990 " 1.51
1.49 1.5165*
1.4835 1.5285
1.47 1.5375*
1.4500* 1.5535
USDJPY
Comment: Tricky as prices are supported by a large Ichimoku 'cloud' yet a potential (if crooked) 'head-and-shoulders' pattern is forming. Expect more hesitation between 96.00 and 99.00 for the rest of this week.Strategy: Attempt shorts at 98.25, adding to 98.90; stop above 99.85. Short term target 97.65, maybe 97.15.Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
97.90 " 98.99
97.6 99.57/99.69*
97.15 99.77
96.00* 100
95.63* 100.74
Epulse
EURO
The 1.3430 resistance level was able to halt further inclines for the Euro versus Dollar pair as it reversed movements to the downside to reach the support level at 1.3245 (the key resistance for the previously breached descending channel) where it seems like the pair is currently targeting the key support for the ascending channel. Today's downside target is at 1.3070 where we expect the pair is to rebound from this level towards 1.3450. The short term upside trend remains as far as 1.3070 is intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2800 and the key resistance at 1.3700 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
Support: 1.3245, 1.3190, 1.3175, 1.3120, 1.3070
Resistance: 1.3320, 1.3365, 1.3430, 1.3480, 1.3525
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.3245 with targets at 1.3070 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.3320
GBP
The Cable breached the 1.5030 resistance level to appreciate and record the high for the day at 1.5160 before reversing back to the downside below the previously mentioned broken resistance where we believe these movements are correcting yesterday's sharp incline. We still hold our outlook to the upside on the short term towards 1.5270 and 1.5350 yet once again; a downside correction may reach 1.4915 where a breach of this level will possibly take the pair to 1.4765 before rebounding once again. The uptrend remains as far as 1.4725 is intact yet a close above 1.5080 will end the downside correction at 23.6%. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4240 and the key resistance at 1.5400. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440
Support: 1.4950, 1.4915, 1.4845, 1.4765, 1.4725
Resistance: 1.5080, 1.5130, 1.5190, 1.5270, 1.5300
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.5080 with targets at 1.5270 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.4950
JPY
The USD/JPY pair declined further yesterday where it currently stopped at the 38.2% for the bullish wave from 95.60 to 99.55 yet the short term trend remains to the upside targeting 103.00 as far as 96.00 remains intact. However today, targets are at 99.55 as far is trading remains above 97.15.The trading range for today is among the key support at 95.85 and the key resistance at 103.00. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 98.05, 97.15, 96.35, 95.90, 95.45
Resistance: 98.65, 99.55, 100.25, 100.70, 101.00
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 98.05 with targets at 99.55 and stop loss with four hour closing below 97.15
CHF
The Dollar versus Swiss inclined to retest the critical support level at 1.1385 where trading must remain below it to maintain the short term and intraday trends to the downside with targets at 1.1165 and 1.0980 respectively as far as the critical resistance at 1.1505 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0980 and the key resistance at 1.1800. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245
Support: 1.1270, 1.1240, 1.1165, 1.1100, 1.1055
Resistance: 1.1385, 1.1410, 1.1505, 1.1520, 1.1585
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1385 with targets at 1.1270 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1505
CAD
The Dollar versus Loonie continues to trade within a minor descending channel where we see the pair is touching the key resistance for the channel. The short term trend remains to the downside with targets at 1.1570 as far as 1.8815 (61.8% Fibonacci correction) to continue the intraday trend to the downside for today where a breach of this level to the upside confirmed by a four hour closing above this level will open the way for the pair towards 1.1975 and then towards the key resistance for the major downside channel at 1.2215. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1570 and the key resistance at 1.2505. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.1585 remains intact with targets at 1.3400
Support: 1.1700, 1.1655, 1.1585, 1.1515, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1815, 1.1900, 1.1975, 1.2015, 1.2070
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1815 with targets at 1.1655 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1900.
FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8347.50 and 8322.20(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8280.13, where correction also can be. Then follows 8246.30. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8218.13. Continuation will bring 8194.62.Today's resistance: - 8460.23(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8480.50, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8507.82, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8528.90. Continuation would bring 8561.30 and 8606.22.