Saturday, September 19, 2009
Crude Oil May Fall Next Week as U.S. Fuel Supplies Increase, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures may decline as U.S. fuel stockpiles increase and refiners prepare to idle units for seasonal maintenance. Sixteen of 42 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 38 percent, said futures will drop through Sept. 25. Fourteen respondents, or 33 percent, forecast that the market will rise and 12 said prices will be little changed. Last week, 45 percent of analysts said oil would fall.
Oil futures touched $73.16 yesterday, the highest since Aug. 31, as the dollar dropped against the euro. A weaker U.S. currency bolsters the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. Ample U.S. stockpiles of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, have tempered price increases. “The run-up this week was based on financials, specifically weakness of the dollar, and is likely to be undone next week by poor fundamentals,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.
Supplies of distillate fuel climbed 2.24 million barrels to 167.8 million last week, the highest since January 1983 and 24 percent more than the five-year average, the Energy Department said on Sept. 16. Gasoline inventories rose 547,000 barrels to 207.7 million, 4 percent greater than average.
Demand for crude oil may drop as refiners idle units to perform repairs. Companies tend to schedule maintenance for September and October as gasoline demand drops and before heating-oil consumption increases. Crude oil for October delivery rose $3.18, or 4.6 percent, to $72.47 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has climbed 62 percent this year and has slipped 51 percent from a record $147.27 reached on July 11, 2008.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.
Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week. The results were: RISE NEUTRAL FALL 14 12 16
Oil futures touched $73.16 yesterday, the highest since Aug. 31, as the dollar dropped against the euro. A weaker U.S. currency bolsters the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. Ample U.S. stockpiles of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, have tempered price increases. “The run-up this week was based on financials, specifically weakness of the dollar, and is likely to be undone next week by poor fundamentals,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.
Supplies of distillate fuel climbed 2.24 million barrels to 167.8 million last week, the highest since January 1983 and 24 percent more than the five-year average, the Energy Department said on Sept. 16. Gasoline inventories rose 547,000 barrels to 207.7 million, 4 percent greater than average.
Demand for crude oil may drop as refiners idle units to perform repairs. Companies tend to schedule maintenance for September and October as gasoline demand drops and before heating-oil consumption increases. Crude oil for October delivery rose $3.18, or 4.6 percent, to $72.47 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has climbed 62 percent this year and has slipped 51 percent from a record $147.27 reached on July 11, 2008.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 47 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.
Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming week. The results were: RISE NEUTRAL FALL 14 12 16
Gold May Advance on Dollar Next Week, Inflation Concern, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) -- Gold, trading within about 2 percent of a record, may advance as investors seek to hedge against a weaker dollar and possible inflation, a survey showed. Sixteen of 21 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 76 percent, said bullion would rise next week. Three forecast lower prices, and two were neutral. Gold for delivery in December was down 0.6 percent at $1,014.50 an ounce as of 12:14 p.m. yesterday in New York.
Gold reached an 18-month high of $1,025.80 an ounce yesterday, and is set for a fifth weekly gain as the U.S. Dollar Index reached its lowest level in almost a year. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in August, beating economists’ forecasts, while an increase in the country’s housing starts and a decline in first-time jobless claims signaled the economy is pulling out of the worst recession since World War II. “The ‘green shoots’ sentiment will continue to dominate market psychology and will be the key driver,” Jim Pogoda, an investor in Summit, New Jersey, and a former precious-metals trader for Mitsubishi International Corp., said in an e-mail. “This should continue to boost risk appetite, weakening the dollar and boosting gold.”
Futures climbed to a record $1,033.90 in March 2008. The weekly gold survey has forecast prices accurately in 161 of 279 weeks, or 58 percent of the time. This week’s survey results: Bullish: 16 Bearish: 3 Neutral: 2
Globalmarketstrategist.blospot.com
Gold reached an 18-month high of $1,025.80 an ounce yesterday, and is set for a fifth weekly gain as the U.S. Dollar Index reached its lowest level in almost a year. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in August, beating economists’ forecasts, while an increase in the country’s housing starts and a decline in first-time jobless claims signaled the economy is pulling out of the worst recession since World War II. “The ‘green shoots’ sentiment will continue to dominate market psychology and will be the key driver,” Jim Pogoda, an investor in Summit, New Jersey, and a former precious-metals trader for Mitsubishi International Corp., said in an e-mail. “This should continue to boost risk appetite, weakening the dollar and boosting gold.”
Futures climbed to a record $1,033.90 in March 2008. The weekly gold survey has forecast prices accurately in 161 of 279 weeks, or 58 percent of the time. This week’s survey results: Bullish: 16 Bearish: 3 Neutral: 2
Globalmarketstrategist.blospot.com
Friday, September 18, 2009
Kumpulan Artikel Rupiah & Saham Inilah.com, MetroTV & Kontan 2008 – 2009
Download Article Inilah.com
Download Article Kontan (Tabloid & Web)
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Download Article Kontan (Tabloid & Web)
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Daily Forex/Gold/Dow Jones Recommended Levels
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9714.38 and 9658.12(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9618.74, where correction also can be. Then follows 9590.63. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9573.75. Continuation will bring 9541.40.Today's resistance: - 9857.44 and 9903.62(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9921.50, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9942.80, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9973.12. Continuation would bring 10001.25 and 10024.77.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : Rupee : Rupee corrected to close to 48.00 levels and bounced back to 48.25 levels today. We expect rupee to hold weak in medium term targeting 49 plus levels again.It has major trend support at 48.00 levels which is likely to hold for the week. Importers are advised to cover around these levels. Exporters hold on to covers. Unless and until we see a weekly close below 48.00 levels the outlook remains bearish for rupee. Bearish (USD/INR : 48.14).
Euro : The rising wedge formation and channel resistance at 1.47 levels shows that there is only a little room left for movement and a downward breakout looks possible (Refer Chart sent yesterday evening) Immediate support is seen at 1.4570. Break below that area could be a valid breakdown from the rising wedge and could trigger a downside momentum. Look for short opportunities. (EUR/USD 1.4722) Neutral.
Sterling : Pound broke 1.64 levels despite euro holding on to 1.47 levels. The strategy for pound still remains rangebound and buy on dips close to 1.63-1.6350 is recommended. (GBP/USD 1.6380) . Neutral
Yen : Yen seems to have made a temporary bottom at 90 and the levels of 92 again is expected. The range of yen is going to be between 90-93 for sometime to come. Buy close to 90 and sell close to 93 levels. (USD/JPY 91.10) Bullish
Aud : Aud maintains the bullish bias. Buying at dips close to important supports remains the best strategy in the current market scenario.Only a continuous move below 0.8400 would break the trendline and stand bearish for the pair. We can consider shorts at 0.8750 targetting 200 pips with stop of 50 pips. (AUD/USD -0.8704) Bullish
Gold : Gold is unable to break the resistance of 1020 levels. (Gold $1013).Bullish
Dollar Index : The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) needs to break the levels of 78.70 to maintain strength again otherwise rangebound. It could bottom close to 75.50 levels. (Dollar Index - 76.34).Neutral
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9714.38 and 9658.12(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9618.74, where correction also can be. Then follows 9590.63. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9573.75. Continuation will bring 9541.40.Today's resistance: - 9857.44 and 9903.62(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9921.50, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9942.80, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9973.12. Continuation would bring 10001.25 and 10024.77.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : Rupee : Rupee corrected to close to 48.00 levels and bounced back to 48.25 levels today. We expect rupee to hold weak in medium term targeting 49 plus levels again.It has major trend support at 48.00 levels which is likely to hold for the week. Importers are advised to cover around these levels. Exporters hold on to covers. Unless and until we see a weekly close below 48.00 levels the outlook remains bearish for rupee. Bearish (USD/INR : 48.14).
Euro : The rising wedge formation and channel resistance at 1.47 levels shows that there is only a little room left for movement and a downward breakout looks possible (Refer Chart sent yesterday evening) Immediate support is seen at 1.4570. Break below that area could be a valid breakdown from the rising wedge and could trigger a downside momentum. Look for short opportunities. (EUR/USD 1.4722) Neutral.
Sterling : Pound broke 1.64 levels despite euro holding on to 1.47 levels. The strategy for pound still remains rangebound and buy on dips close to 1.63-1.6350 is recommended. (GBP/USD 1.6380) . Neutral
Yen : Yen seems to have made a temporary bottom at 90 and the levels of 92 again is expected. The range of yen is going to be between 90-93 for sometime to come. Buy close to 90 and sell close to 93 levels. (USD/JPY 91.10) Bullish
Aud : Aud maintains the bullish bias. Buying at dips close to important supports remains the best strategy in the current market scenario.Only a continuous move below 0.8400 would break the trendline and stand bearish for the pair. We can consider shorts at 0.8750 targetting 200 pips with stop of 50 pips. (AUD/USD -0.8704) Bullish
Gold : Gold is unable to break the resistance of 1020 levels. (Gold $1013).Bullish
Dollar Index : The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) needs to break the levels of 78.70 to maintain strength again otherwise rangebound. It could bottom close to 75.50 levels. (Dollar Index - 76.34).Neutral
The Fed Owns Most American Monetary Economists
By: Gary_North
The Social Security system has long been described as the third rail of American politics. "Touch it, and you die." You get electrocuted. If you should somehow survive, the next subway train will cut you in pieces. There is such a rail in academia: the Federal Reserve System
Download Article The Fed
The Social Security system has long been described as the third rail of American politics. "Touch it, and you die." You get electrocuted. If you should somehow survive, the next subway train will cut you in pieces. There is such a rail in academia: the Federal Reserve System
Download Article The Fed
S&P Stocks Bear Market Rally Top Update
By: Alistair_Gilbert
Stock-Markets
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“TIME is more important than PRICE”, in the immortal words of WD Gann, is the reason why I look for TIME Cycles in the markets, because when TIME is up PRICE will fall. I have a number of TIME Cycles falling over the next week starting with yesterday which tells me that we are nearly at a top or possibly the top.
Download Article S&P 500
Stock-Markets
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“TIME is more important than PRICE”, in the immortal words of WD Gann, is the reason why I look for TIME Cycles in the markets, because when TIME is up PRICE will fall. I have a number of TIME Cycles falling over the next week starting with yesterday which tells me that we are nearly at a top or possibly the top.
Download Article S&P 500
Hang Seng Index to Fall as IPOs Divert Cash: Technical Analysis
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is set to fall back below the 21,000 level in the closing weeks of this month as investors raise cash to buy into initial share sales, according to DMG & Partners Securities Pte.The gauge climbed 1.7 percent to 21,768.51 yesterday, its highest close since Aug. 11, 2008. The Hang Seng has closed above the 21,000 mark just five times in September.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZR0jWIyErfQ
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZR0jWIyErfQ
Euro May Rise to September-High of $1.4866: Technical Analysis
The euro may advance to $1.4866 after the currency climbed above its December-high of $1.4720 this week, BNP Paribas SA said, citing trading patterns.The 16-nation currency will approach the strongest level since September against the greenback even though some technical indicators suggest it becoming “overbought,” according to a team of analysts led by Hans-Guenter Redeker, global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas in London.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ae2qg1I0GWzw
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ae2qg1I0GWzw
Isu Perbankan Inggris & Teknikal Overbought Picu Sell on Rally GBP & Euro
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
Euro masih menunjukkan pola bullish continuation dalam uptrend channel, mempertahankan pola candle long candle selama 10 hari terakhir diikuti indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi kenaikan. Support di 1.4660 (downchanel)/1.4555. Resistance berada di 1.4795 (middle channel) /1.4945. Euro menunjukkan impulse wave 5/3 untuk target 1.480/1.4950, selama tidak menembus 1.4445. Buy 1.4550 target 1.4780, Buy 1.4660 target 1.4500 stop 1.4200, sell break 1.4250 target 1.4100 stop 60p. Sell 1.4790 target 1.4550 stop 60p, sell 1.4940 trgt 1.4450. stop 60 poin, sell break 1.4400 tgt 1.4200.
USD-JPY
USDJPY menunjukkan signal positif dari pola side-by side kemarin dan breakout downtrend channel line di 91.40. Penutupan dibawah channel di 91.65 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low di 90.00/89.65 (former low). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan selama bertahan di bawah 91.45. Resistance berada di 91.70/92.50, support di 90.00/89.65. Sell 91.60 target 90.50 stop 60p. buy break 92.00 target 93.60 stop 60p. Sell 94.20 stop 60p target 91.50 & sell 93.50 target 91.70 stop 92.00. Hold Buy 90.20 target 91.60 stop 89.50. Buy 89.65 target 91.90 stop 60p.
GBP-USD
(+130p) GBP menunjukkan signal positif dari potensi bulish reversal dari pola candle morning doji star dan masih berada di atas uptrend channel, selama berada di atas upper channel di 1.6470, diikuti indikator ADX terkoreksi dan MACD di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas 1.6470. EW menunjukkan GBP berada dalam wave impulse 2/5. Sell 1.6470 target 1.6200 stop 1.6520. Sell 1.6750 target 1.6450 stop 60p, buy 1.6280 target 1.6500 stop 60p. Sell break 1.6200 target 1.6050 stop 60p. Sell 1.6570 target 1.6250 stop 60p. Sell 1.6650 target 1.6400 stop 60p, buy 1.6100 target 1.6400 stop 1.6040.
AUD-USD
AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka pendek, diikuti pola bullish dari long blue candle, diikuti indikator ADX meningkat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan selama di tutup diatas downchannel 0.8660. Resistance di 0.8790/0.8850, support di 0.8675/0.8630. Buy 0.8670 target 0.8850, sell 0.8850 target 0.8630 & sell 0.9000 stop 0.8540 stop 60p, buy 0.8500 target 0.8700. sell break 0.8600 target 0.8500.
www.strategydesk.co.id
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
EUR-USD
Euro masih menunjukkan pola bullish continuation dalam uptrend channel, mempertahankan pola candle long candle selama 10 hari terakhir diikuti indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi kenaikan. Support di 1.4660 (downchanel)/1.4555. Resistance berada di 1.4795 (middle channel) /1.4945. Euro menunjukkan impulse wave 5/3 untuk target 1.480/1.4950, selama tidak menembus 1.4445. Buy 1.4550 target 1.4780, Buy 1.4660 target 1.4500 stop 1.4200, sell break 1.4250 target 1.4100 stop 60p. Sell 1.4790 target 1.4550 stop 60p, sell 1.4940 trgt 1.4450. stop 60 poin, sell break 1.4400 tgt 1.4200.
USD-JPY
USDJPY menunjukkan signal positif dari pola side-by side kemarin dan breakout downtrend channel line di 91.40. Penutupan dibawah channel di 91.65 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low di 90.00/89.65 (former low). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan selama bertahan di bawah 91.45. Resistance berada di 91.70/92.50, support di 90.00/89.65. Sell 91.60 target 90.50 stop 60p. buy break 92.00 target 93.60 stop 60p. Sell 94.20 stop 60p target 91.50 & sell 93.50 target 91.70 stop 92.00. Hold Buy 90.20 target 91.60 stop 89.50. Buy 89.65 target 91.90 stop 60p.
GBP-USD
(+130p) GBP menunjukkan signal positif dari potensi bulish reversal dari pola candle morning doji star dan masih berada di atas uptrend channel, selama berada di atas upper channel di 1.6470, diikuti indikator ADX terkoreksi dan MACD di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas 1.6470. EW menunjukkan GBP berada dalam wave impulse 2/5. Sell 1.6470 target 1.6200 stop 1.6520. Sell 1.6750 target 1.6450 stop 60p, buy 1.6280 target 1.6500 stop 60p. Sell break 1.6200 target 1.6050 stop 60p. Sell 1.6570 target 1.6250 stop 60p. Sell 1.6650 target 1.6400 stop 60p, buy 1.6100 target 1.6400 stop 1.6040.
AUD-USD
AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka pendek, diikuti pola bullish dari long blue candle, diikuti indikator ADX meningkat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan selama di tutup diatas downchannel 0.8660. Resistance di 0.8790/0.8850, support di 0.8675/0.8630. Buy 0.8670 target 0.8850, sell 0.8850 target 0.8630 & sell 0.9000 stop 0.8540 stop 60p, buy 0.8500 target 0.8700. sell break 0.8600 target 0.8500.
www.strategydesk.co.id
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Track Record Rekomendasi Saham Indonesia (17 Juni - 17 September 2009)
Track Record (17 Juni - 17 September 2009 = 13 Pekan) Average 72.87% (12 Pekan) + 4.20% (total 67.24% : 16 Saham Pilihan pekan ini) = Total 77.07% (13 Pekan berturut-turut Positive Return; Outperform IHSG 2.44% pekan ini & 22.23% (rata-rata 13 pekan: Range 2,024-2,474) = Average 5.928%/Week. BUMI 3075 (+10.56%), KLBF 1,200 (+0.08%), MNCN 290 (0), UNVR 1,400 (+4.8), BRPT 1,560 (0), BBRI 7400 (+6.75%), INTP 9,850 (+5.6%), SMCB 1,320 (+3.0%), INDF 2,650 (+6.6%), JSMR 1,800 (+2.2%), INCO 4,150 (+5.4%), ANTM 2,400 (+10.4%), ADRO 1,340 (+6.0%), BBNI 2,000 (+3.75), BNBR 135 (+2.1%), DEWA 210 (0). I'll be back for the 24th Sept (trading 1-2 days) ahead of The Federal Reserve Meeting (22-23 Sept) & G20 meeting on the weekend at Pittsburg, US. HAPPY A NICE LONG JOYFUL HOLIDAY & IDUL FITRI 1430 HIJRIYAH. MINAL AIDZIN WAL-FAIDZIN. Good Luck. Happy Cuan.
Senior investor all but exits the stock rally; predict DJIA 3,000-4,000 in 3 years
Stocks surge to a new high for the year, but one veteran editor bails out.
Well, "bailing out" is sort of a relative term for Growth Stock Outlook's octogenarian Charles Allmon. He's been 75% or more in cash since the Crash of 1987. (Well, it seemed like a Crash at the time.) But his remarkable stock-picking helped keep him a contender -- with, of course, some assistance from the Crash of 2008. (See April 30 column.).
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/1d00467a-5832-4a43-a638-89b1c767e0c2/0
Well, "bailing out" is sort of a relative term for Growth Stock Outlook's octogenarian Charles Allmon. He's been 75% or more in cash since the Crash of 1987. (Well, it seemed like a Crash at the time.) But his remarkable stock-picking helped keep him a contender -- with, of course, some assistance from the Crash of 2008. (See April 30 column.).
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/1d00467a-5832-4a43-a638-89b1c767e0c2/0
(3) Technical Analysis: U.S. Dollar Sending Buy Signals, MIG Says
The dollar’s decline against currencies including the euro may be poised to peter out, according to MIG Investments SA, which cited trading patterns.The TD Combo indicator, which traces a security’s price movements to determine whether a trend is losing momentum, gave a “sell signal” for the euro versus the dollar today, said Paul Day, chief market analyst in Neuchatel, Switzerland. Gold gave a “weekly” sell sign using TD Sequential, which seeks to anticipate “trend exhaustion,” he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ab6YzRpw8pio
BlackRock’s Fink Says Dollar Still Best for Long Term
Laurence Fink , chairman and chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., said the U.S. dollar remains the best currency for investors seeking to protect wealth.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2065100&sid=aLZMqIMQ2Ys0
UBS Sees Longer-Term Strengthening by Dollar on Revival of Risk
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anbSof8P2CEE
Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ab6YzRpw8pio
BlackRock’s Fink Says Dollar Still Best for Long Term
Laurence Fink , chairman and chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc., said the U.S. dollar remains the best currency for investors seeking to protect wealth.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2065100&sid=aLZMqIMQ2Ys0
UBS Sees Longer-Term Strengthening by Dollar on Revival of Risk
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anbSof8P2CEE
Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Sep 17 09 06:54 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rebound extended further but after all it's still kept below 72.90 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As noted below 72.90 will suggest that recent rise in crude oil is still in progress and further rally could then be seen to retest 75.0 resistance next. On the downside, below 68.02 will reaffirm the case that crude oil has topped out at 75.0 and will bring deeper fall to 65.23 for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Question remains on whether such rally has completed at 75.0 already. Crude oil is now at important medium term trend line support. Sustained trading below will be the first alert that such rise has finished. Break of 58.32 will confirm this case and turn outlook bearish for 33.2 low next. On the upside, while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rebound extended further but after all it's still kept below 72.90 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As noted below 72.90 will suggest that recent rise in crude oil is still in progress and further rally could then be seen to retest 75.0 resistance next. On the downside, below 68.02 will reaffirm the case that crude oil has topped out at 75.0 and will bring deeper fall to 65.23 for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Question remains on whether such rally has completed at 75.0 already. Crude oil is now at important medium term trend line support. Sustained trading below will be the first alert that such rise has finished. Break of 58.32 will confirm this case and turn outlook bearish for 33.2 low next. On the upside, while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Sep 17 09 06:55 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 1025.8 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should still be seen to test 1033.9 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. on the downside, below 1007.6 will argue that a short term top might be formed and deeper pull back could be seen to 983.2 support and below.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681, which is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend, should have resumed after triangle consolidation from 1007.7 has completed at 931.3. Having said that, current rally from 931.3 should extend beyond 1033.9 high to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. On the downside, break of 931.3 support is needed to be the first signal that Gold has topped out in medium term. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of deep pull back.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 1025.8 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should still be seen to test 1033.9 key resistance. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. on the downside, below 1007.6 will argue that a short term top might be formed and deeper pull back could be seen to 983.2 support and below.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681, which is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend, should have resumed after triangle consolidation from 1007.7 has completed at 931.3. Having said that, current rally from 931.3 should extend beyond 1033.9 high to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. On the downside, break of 931.3 support is needed to be the first signal that Gold has topped out in medium term. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of deep pull back.
Gold Price Breakout or B Wave Corrective Top?
PREFERED PROBABLE CORRECTIVE SCENARIO
“In a regular flat correction, wave B terminates about at the level of the beginning of wave A, and wave C terminates a slight bit past the end of wave A.” E. W. P.
ALTERNATE PROBABLE CORRECTIVE SCENARIO
“Far more common, however, is the variety called an expanded flat, which contains a price extreme beyond that of the preceding impulse wave. In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A.” E. W. P.
Download Article E.W Gold
“In a regular flat correction, wave B terminates about at the level of the beginning of wave A, and wave C terminates a slight bit past the end of wave A.” E. W. P.
ALTERNATE PROBABLE CORRECTIVE SCENARIO
“Far more common, however, is the variety called an expanded flat, which contains a price extreme beyond that of the preceding impulse wave. In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A.” E. W. P.
Download Article E.W Gold
Stock Market Heading for an October Crash?
By: Peter_Navarro
Stock-Markets
We survived the brief market pullback so thus far September looks a bit safer than in previous years. The big question hanging over this market is whether the investment-led recovery will be given legs by a revival of consumption. The jury remains out on this as consumers are clearly saving more and undergoing an interesting transformation from spendthrift bubblemeisters to far more thrifty families. The danger is that we may catch Japan’s “paradox of thrift” disease: Japanese citizens have been so paranoid about the economy that they never spend enough to restore robust growth to the Land of the Setting Economic Sun.
See the video's link below:
http://www.thestreet.com/video/10598011/october-crash.html
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Stock-Markets
We survived the brief market pullback so thus far September looks a bit safer than in previous years. The big question hanging over this market is whether the investment-led recovery will be given legs by a revival of consumption. The jury remains out on this as consumers are clearly saving more and undergoing an interesting transformation from spendthrift bubblemeisters to far more thrifty families. The danger is that we may catch Japan’s “paradox of thrift” disease: Japanese citizens have been so paranoid about the economy that they never spend enough to restore robust growth to the Land of the Setting Economic Sun.
See the video's link below:
http://www.thestreet.com/video/10598011/october-crash.html
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
As Dow 10,000 looms, a time to worry
By David Callaway, MarketWatch
In March, it was just a relief that stocks rose after six months straight down. In April and May, it was perplexing. In June, July and August, it was invigorating as the market recouped 50% of its losses. Now, in September, supposedly a bad month for stocks, it's getting scary.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-dow-10000-looms-its-a-time-for-worry-2009-09-17
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
In March, it was just a relief that stocks rose after six months straight down. In April and May, it was perplexing. In June, July and August, it was invigorating as the market recouped 50% of its losses. Now, in September, supposedly a bad month for stocks, it's getting scary.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-dow-10000-looms-its-a-time-for-worry-2009-09-17
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Can we predict the next world crisis?
By Andrew Marshall, Asia Political Risk Correspondent - Analysis
A year after the implosion of Lehman Brothers sent world markets into turmoil, the question of where the next global shock will come from -- and whether it can be predicted and prepared for -- has never been so urgent.What makes the issue particularly difficult is that many of the events catastrophic enough to cause a major crisis -- known as "fat tail risks" or as "Black Swans" by trader and author Nassim Nicholas Taleb -- come from outside the realm of finance.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE58G0LC20090917
A year after the implosion of Lehman Brothers sent world markets into turmoil, the question of where the next global shock will come from -- and whether it can be predicted and prepared for -- has never been so urgent.What makes the issue particularly difficult is that many of the events catastrophic enough to cause a major crisis -- known as "fat tail risks" or as "Black Swans" by trader and author Nassim Nicholas Taleb -- come from outside the realm of finance.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE58G0LC20090917
Eur/Usd Searching for Resistance
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 1.4176, and 1.4800-1.4930. Looking for: Wave 5 top
The Eur/Usd is trading higher with some very powerful moves over the last few trading days. These are not characteristics of an ending diagonal, and as such we have re-worked the previous wave count into a more complex fourth wave triangle, with wave E) low at 1.4176. After this low previously the market became very bullish and broke through the upper line of the triangle, which put the wave 5) into play. This wave 5) is not finished yet, as prices have not reached the Fibonacci resistance area, yet. Once the market hits the 1.4800-1.4930 resistance zone, we will be looking for a possible move to the downside, in a five wave pattern from the 1.2329 low that should then be completed.
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 1.4514, and 1.4800. Looking for: Wave 5) top
We are looking for a black wave 5 structure on four hour chart, in-line with the daily chart outlook. Wave five is an impulse wave, which means it needs to be sub-divided by a five smaller waves, before we can look for a reversal trend. Currently we are looking for a blue wave 5) leg which may hit the top around the 1.4800 area, where a black wave 5 could be completed. In this case we will be looking for a turning point that should drive the prices down near to the 1.4514 support zone, where a break-out will signal flashes that the top is in.
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 1.4176, and 1.4800-1.4930. Looking for: Wave 5 top
The Eur/Usd is trading higher with some very powerful moves over the last few trading days. These are not characteristics of an ending diagonal, and as such we have re-worked the previous wave count into a more complex fourth wave triangle, with wave E) low at 1.4176. After this low previously the market became very bullish and broke through the upper line of the triangle, which put the wave 5) into play. This wave 5) is not finished yet, as prices have not reached the Fibonacci resistance area, yet. Once the market hits the 1.4800-1.4930 resistance zone, we will be looking for a possible move to the downside, in a five wave pattern from the 1.2329 low that should then be completed.
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 1.4514, and 1.4800. Looking for: Wave 5) top
We are looking for a black wave 5 structure on four hour chart, in-line with the daily chart outlook. Wave five is an impulse wave, which means it needs to be sub-divided by a five smaller waves, before we can look for a reversal trend. Currently we are looking for a blue wave 5) leg which may hit the top around the 1.4800 area, where a black wave 5 could be completed. In this case we will be looking for a turning point that should drive the prices down near to the 1.4514 support zone, where a break-out will signal flashes that the top is in.
Disturbing Financial and Economic Trends 2009
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Economics
The numbers in the table below speak for themselves and do not require a great deal of embellishment. They describe a monetary and financial system in crisis. I last researched and prepared this table in 2007. Much has changed over the past two years, and I could not help but note that the numbers had begun to take on a distinctly Weimar-like* feel.
- Foreign-held debt up 26,347%.
- One-year addition to the national debt up 12,681%.
- Adjusted monetary base up 2701%.
- A $12 trillion national debt.
- $592 trillion in derivatives positions.
- A nearly $700 billion trade deficit.
- And, last but not least, a currency that has depreciated by 82%.
Economics
The numbers in the table below speak for themselves and do not require a great deal of embellishment. They describe a monetary and financial system in crisis. I last researched and prepared this table in 2007. Much has changed over the past two years, and I could not help but note that the numbers had begun to take on a distinctly Weimar-like* feel.
- Foreign-held debt up 26,347%.
- One-year addition to the national debt up 12,681%.
- Adjusted monetary base up 2701%.
- A $12 trillion national debt.
- $592 trillion in derivatives positions.
- A nearly $700 billion trade deficit.
- And, last but not least, a currency that has depreciated by 82%.
Stock Market Investing, Not a Time for Buy and Hold
By: Claus_Vogt
Stock-Markets
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany investors are finding that the current situation in the stock market is very difficult to read because the conclusions of different analytical approaches are unusually conflicting. So let’s review the three most important ones and discuss the relevance of each. Then I’ll tell you what I think is the best way to deal with them.
Conclusion: Longer-Term Still Bearish, But Medium-Term I’m Bullish
Bringing all the above together you could draw the following picture for the stock market:
* Valuations are high on a historical basis and a long-term negative, but medium-term they’re meaningless.
* Macroeconomics are longer-term negative or at least doubtful, but medium-term bullish.
* The technical analysis is long-term bearish, but medium-term bullish.
Stock-Markets
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMany investors are finding that the current situation in the stock market is very difficult to read because the conclusions of different analytical approaches are unusually conflicting. So let’s review the three most important ones and discuss the relevance of each. Then I’ll tell you what I think is the best way to deal with them.
Conclusion: Longer-Term Still Bearish, But Medium-Term I’m Bullish
Bringing all the above together you could draw the following picture for the stock market:
* Valuations are high on a historical basis and a long-term negative, but medium-term they’re meaningless.
* Macroeconomics are longer-term negative or at least doubtful, but medium-term bullish.
* The technical analysis is long-term bearish, but medium-term bullish.
Global Confidence Is at Record High as Slump Eases
Confidence in the world economy held at a record high in September after reports suggested the recession is over and officials said they won’t rush to withdraw stimulus, a Bloomberg survey of users on six continents showed.The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index rose to 58.54 this month from 58.12 in August. The index exceeded 50 for a second month, which means there were more optimists than pessimists. Measures of confidence in France and Germany surged after their economies unexpectedly grew last quarter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=am2uChCc8dqs
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=am2uChCc8dqs
Bumi Serpong May Rise to 700 Rupiah, Ciptadana Says
PT Bumi Serpong Damai, a property developer that’s Indonesia’s best performing stock this year, may extend gains on declining mortgage rates and the company’s land holdings, PT Ciptadana Securities said. Bumi Serpong shares may rise 9.4 percent to reach 700 rupiah by yearend, said Natalia Sutanto, an analyst at Jakarta- based Ciptadana, one of two brokerages Bloomberg tracks that cover the stock. Bumi Serpong has surged sixfold this year, compared with an 81 percent gain in the Jakarta Composite index, Asia’s second-best performing stock market.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aP4DpQ7PDrwI
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aP4DpQ7PDrwI
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 17-09
Research Merrill Lynch Sec: Buy PTBA target Rp 17,500, upgrade dari Rp 14,900
Research Merrill Lynch Sec: Buy PGAS target Rp 4,000
Research Merrill Lynch Sec: Buy UNTR target Rp 17,400
Research Citigroup Sec: Hold LSIP target Rp 8,300
Research Citigroup Sec: Sell UNSP target Rp 730
Research Citigroup Sec: Buy AALI target Rp 25,000
Research BNI Sec: Hold ANTM target Rp 2,450
Research Danareksa Sec: Buy BTEL target Rp 240 dari Rp 175
Research Kim Eng Sec: Hold AALI target Rp 21,900
Research Kim Eng Sec: Buy SMGR target Rp 7,600
Saham Astra Graphia Menuju Rp 500
HARGA saham PT Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR) dikabarkan bakal oleh diangkat menuju level Rp 500. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, sejumlah broker sedang mengakumulasi ASGR, karena saham ini belum naik seperti saham-saham Grup Astra lainnya. Selain itu, kata dia, adanya kabar perseroan mendapatkan proyek dari perusahaan telekomunikasi juga berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, ASGR ditutup menguat Rp 10 (3,45%) ke level Rp 300.
TPS Food Jajaki Akuisisi Kebun Sawit
HARGA saham PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera (TPS) Food Tbk (AISA) berpeluang menguat menuju level Rp 650 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, perseroan dikabarkan tengah menjajaki akuisisi perkebunan kelapa sawit guna menopang produksi saat ini. Sementara itu, pada perdagangan kemarin, AISA ditutup naik Rp 10 (2,35%) ke posisi Rp 435.
IHSG Dibuka Naik 20,21 Poin
Pergerakan IHSG pada perdagangan Kamis (17/9) dibuka naik 20,21 poin (0,83%) ke level 2.459,57 dipengaruhi oleh bursa regional dan Wall Street yang positif dan harga minyak yang menembus US$ 71 per barel. IHSG di sesi 1 sentuh tertinggi 2,474.788 sebelum mengalami aksi profit taking. Imbas penguatan rupiah dari inflow dari fund manager dan hedge fund asing, karena positif nya fundamental ekonomi RI setelah World Bank upgrade prediksi GDP tahun 2009 dan Moodys angkat rating mata uang local dan asing RI, diikuti antipasti pembentukan cabinet baru Presiden SBY 1 Oktober. Kenaikan harga minyak (inventory AS anjlok 4.7 juta barel pekan lalu) ke US$ 72.50 dan emas ke US$ 1,020 kemarin, diikuti CPO dan logam lainnya, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham domestik. BOJ mempertahankan suku bunga 0.1% hari ini dan meningkatkan penilaian ekonomi di bulan September. Sejumlah indeks saham Asia menembus level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008, setelah DJI ditutup +108.30 menjadi 9791.71 semalam. Nikkei 225 +75.72 di 10,346.49, Hang Seng HK +389.70 di 21,792.62, Kospi +6.35 di 1,690.06, Shanghai +44.463 di 3,044.173.
Rupiah Pagi Tembus Rp 9.600 Per Dolar AS
Kurs rupiah terhadap dolar AS di pasar spot antarbank Jakarta, Kamis pagi menguat tajam menembus angka Rp 9.600 per dolar AS (tertinggi Rp 9,585), karena meningkatnya kebutuhan terhadap rupiah oleh para pelaku pasar. Isu positif dari Moodys dan World Bank, diikuti trend penurunan dolar AS terhadap mata uang global karena kian menurunnya suku bunga 3 bulan Libor menjadi 0.2% (terendah diantara negara G20) dan kekhawatiran isu perang dagang AS-China yang dapat picu diverisifikasi cadangan devisa bank sentral China, ikut memukul sentimen dolar AS dan memberikan keuntungan kepada rupiah yang masih dapat memberikan tingkat keuntungan (yield) yang lebih tinggi, menjelang pembentukan kabinet baru Presiden SBY di awal Oktober dan pertemuan kepala negara G20 di Pittsburg AS pekan depan. USD-JPY menguat 0.1655 di 91.0950, AUS-USD menguat 0.0006 di 0.8741, NZD-USD melemah 0.0009 di 0.7132, USD-SGD menguat 0.0008 di 1.4126, USD-KRW melemah 4.7749 di 1,206.45, USD-PHP melemah 0.2650 di 47.7850, USD-CNY menguat di 0.0004 di 6.8264, EUR-USD menguat 0.0019 di 1.4728, GBP-USD menguat 0.0005 di 1.6498.
PT Bakrie Toll Road (BTR), anak usaha PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) berencana menerbitkan obligasi hingga Rp 500 miliar pada tahun 2010. Dananya akan digunakan untuk pengembangan proyek tol perseroan.
Duta Graha Rampungkan Proyek Rp 264 Miliar
PT Duta Graha Indah Tbk (DGIK) sudah merampungkan dua proyek mencapai Rp 264 miliar. Perseroan sudah menyelesaikan tujuh dari 41 proyek yang sedang kerjakan tahun ini.
BEI Suspensi Saham Bristol-Myers
Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) akhirnya mengehntikan sementara perdagangan (suspensi) saham PT Bristol-Myers Squibb Indonesia Tbk mulai sesi I perdagangan Kamis (17/9) ini.
Laba Bersih WOMF Anjlok 26,5%
PT Wahana Ottomitra Multiartha Tbk (WOMF) selama Januari sampai Juni 2009 mengantongi laba bersih anjlok 26,5% menjadi Rp10,71 miliar dari Rp14,57miliar.
Dalam jangka panjang saham properti akan memiliki prospek yang bagus. Berdasarkan data pergerakan saham, prospek saham properti mulai meningkat setelah kenaikan saham perbankan. Saham yang layak menjadi pilihan adalah BSDE dan CTRA.
IHSG pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan akan naik. Namun demikian, hari terakhir menjelang libur panjang juga memungkinkan aksi profit taking di bursa. IHSG akan diperdagangan dengan kisaran 2.425-2.483.
PT Metrodata Electronics Tbk (MTDL) melakukan pembelian kembali (buyback) yang bersifat utang sebesar Rp 4,5 miliar atas Sukuk Ijarah Metrodata I Tahun 2008.
PEROLEH MODAL KERJA US$ 10 JUTA, Bayan Tunjuk Standchart Fasilitasi Proyek US$ 150 Juta
PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) menunjuk Standard Chartered Bank (Standchart) sebagai penasihat keuangan untuk memfasilitasi pengembangan proyek senilai US$ 150 juta. Proyek tersebut akan digarap anak usaha perseroan, PT Kaltim Supacoal.
INDY: Laba Bersih 1H09 Terpangkas 25,3% Yoy
Laba bersih INDY 1H09 turun 25,3% yoy dari Rp483,26 miliar jadi Rp360,56 miliar, seiring pendapatannya turun 37,2% yoy dari Rp1,3 triliun jadi Rp815,17 miliar. Selain itu, mencatat kerugian kurs sebesar Rp222,44 miliar, beban usaha Rp40,23 miliar dan beban bunga Rp126,21 miliar. Pendapatan kontrak 1H09 anjlok 60% yoy dari Rp1,18 triliun jadi Rp475,29 miliar, sedangkan penjualan batubaranya naik 76,79% yoy jadi Rp199,88 miliar dan penjualan jasa melonjak jadi Rp139,99 miliar dari Rp830,55 juta.
Cement: Penjualan Semen Agustus Meningkat 7,5% yoy
Realisasi penjualan semen pada Agustus 2009 meningkat 7,5% yoy menjadi 3,565 juta ton dari 3,317 juta ton. Ini merupakan penjualan tertinggi sepanjang tahun ini. Hal ini disebabkan oleh pemangkasan suku bunga acuan hingga 6,5% sehingga mendorong pengembang mengerjakan sejumlah property dan permintaan semen mulai naik sejak Juli.
SQBI: Diakuisisi Taisho, Akan Tender Offer
Taisho Pharmaceutical Co Ltd, perusahaan farmasi asal Jepang akan mengakuisisi 10.032.250 atau 97,97% saham SQBI senilai US$ 150 juta ( Rp 1,5 triliun ) atau Rp 149.517,81/saham, premium 171,84% dari harga pasar tersebut. Selain itu, Taisho juga akan membayar US$ 160 juta guna membeli merek dagang perseroan sehingga totalnya mencapai US$310 juta. Transaksi tersebut akan mewajibkan Taisho melaksanakan tender offer saham SQBI.
INDY: Kantongi Kontrak Penjualan 80% Batubara, Bantah Akan Akuisisi Maruwai
INDY telah mengantongi kesepakatan penjualan 19,2 juta ton batubara atau 80% dari target produksi batubara FY09 yakni 24 juta ton. Sementara itu, perseroan membantah kabar bahwa perseroan berencana mengakuisisi tambang batubara Maruwai , Kalteng karena hingga saat ini manjemen belum melakukan pembicaraan terkait akuisisi tersebut.
RMBA Beri Insentif Pemegang Obligasi
PT Bentoel International Investama Tbk selaku penerbit obligasi itu akan memberikan insentif berupa bonus bunga 0,25% dari nilai pokok obligasi.
DGIK: Tuntaskan Proyek Rp264 Miliar
DGIK menuntaskan dua proyek senilai Rp264 miliar meliputi pembangunan gedung Cyber Rp190 miliar dan gedung kantor upati Halmahera Rp74 miliar. Hingga September, perseroan sudah merampungkan 7 proyek dari 41 proyek yang tengah dikerjakan tahun ini.
SDRA: Targetkan Kredit Rp 1,7 Triliun
Bank Saudara menargetkan penyaluran kredit Rp 1,7 triliun hingga akhir tahun. Kemungkinan target tersebut akan tercapai mengingat total kredit per Juni telah mencapai Rp1,6 triliun. Pada 1H09, CAR perusahaan juga masih stabil yakni 13% dan NPL sebesar 1,6%.
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Investor-daily, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Research Merrill Lynch Sec: Buy PGAS target Rp 4,000
Research Merrill Lynch Sec: Buy UNTR target Rp 17,400
Research Citigroup Sec: Hold LSIP target Rp 8,300
Research Citigroup Sec: Sell UNSP target Rp 730
Research Citigroup Sec: Buy AALI target Rp 25,000
Research BNI Sec: Hold ANTM target Rp 2,450
Research Danareksa Sec: Buy BTEL target Rp 240 dari Rp 175
Research Kim Eng Sec: Hold AALI target Rp 21,900
Research Kim Eng Sec: Buy SMGR target Rp 7,600
Saham Astra Graphia Menuju Rp 500
HARGA saham PT Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR) dikabarkan bakal oleh diangkat menuju level Rp 500. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, sejumlah broker sedang mengakumulasi ASGR, karena saham ini belum naik seperti saham-saham Grup Astra lainnya. Selain itu, kata dia, adanya kabar perseroan mendapatkan proyek dari perusahaan telekomunikasi juga berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, ASGR ditutup menguat Rp 10 (3,45%) ke level Rp 300.
TPS Food Jajaki Akuisisi Kebun Sawit
HARGA saham PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera (TPS) Food Tbk (AISA) berpeluang menguat menuju level Rp 650 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, perseroan dikabarkan tengah menjajaki akuisisi perkebunan kelapa sawit guna menopang produksi saat ini. Sementara itu, pada perdagangan kemarin, AISA ditutup naik Rp 10 (2,35%) ke posisi Rp 435.
IHSG Dibuka Naik 20,21 Poin
Pergerakan IHSG pada perdagangan Kamis (17/9) dibuka naik 20,21 poin (0,83%) ke level 2.459,57 dipengaruhi oleh bursa regional dan Wall Street yang positif dan harga minyak yang menembus US$ 71 per barel. IHSG di sesi 1 sentuh tertinggi 2,474.788 sebelum mengalami aksi profit taking. Imbas penguatan rupiah dari inflow dari fund manager dan hedge fund asing, karena positif nya fundamental ekonomi RI setelah World Bank upgrade prediksi GDP tahun 2009 dan Moodys angkat rating mata uang local dan asing RI, diikuti antipasti pembentukan cabinet baru Presiden SBY 1 Oktober. Kenaikan harga minyak (inventory AS anjlok 4.7 juta barel pekan lalu) ke US$ 72.50 dan emas ke US$ 1,020 kemarin, diikuti CPO dan logam lainnya, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham domestik. BOJ mempertahankan suku bunga 0.1% hari ini dan meningkatkan penilaian ekonomi di bulan September. Sejumlah indeks saham Asia menembus level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008, setelah DJI ditutup +108.30 menjadi 9791.71 semalam. Nikkei 225 +75.72 di 10,346.49, Hang Seng HK +389.70 di 21,792.62, Kospi +6.35 di 1,690.06, Shanghai +44.463 di 3,044.173.
Rupiah Pagi Tembus Rp 9.600 Per Dolar AS
Kurs rupiah terhadap dolar AS di pasar spot antarbank Jakarta, Kamis pagi menguat tajam menembus angka Rp 9.600 per dolar AS (tertinggi Rp 9,585), karena meningkatnya kebutuhan terhadap rupiah oleh para pelaku pasar. Isu positif dari Moodys dan World Bank, diikuti trend penurunan dolar AS terhadap mata uang global karena kian menurunnya suku bunga 3 bulan Libor menjadi 0.2% (terendah diantara negara G20) dan kekhawatiran isu perang dagang AS-China yang dapat picu diverisifikasi cadangan devisa bank sentral China, ikut memukul sentimen dolar AS dan memberikan keuntungan kepada rupiah yang masih dapat memberikan tingkat keuntungan (yield) yang lebih tinggi, menjelang pembentukan kabinet baru Presiden SBY di awal Oktober dan pertemuan kepala negara G20 di Pittsburg AS pekan depan. USD-JPY menguat 0.1655 di 91.0950, AUS-USD menguat 0.0006 di 0.8741, NZD-USD melemah 0.0009 di 0.7132, USD-SGD menguat 0.0008 di 1.4126, USD-KRW melemah 4.7749 di 1,206.45, USD-PHP melemah 0.2650 di 47.7850, USD-CNY menguat di 0.0004 di 6.8264, EUR-USD menguat 0.0019 di 1.4728, GBP-USD menguat 0.0005 di 1.6498.
PT Bakrie Toll Road (BTR), anak usaha PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) berencana menerbitkan obligasi hingga Rp 500 miliar pada tahun 2010. Dananya akan digunakan untuk pengembangan proyek tol perseroan.
Duta Graha Rampungkan Proyek Rp 264 Miliar
PT Duta Graha Indah Tbk (DGIK) sudah merampungkan dua proyek mencapai Rp 264 miliar. Perseroan sudah menyelesaikan tujuh dari 41 proyek yang sedang kerjakan tahun ini.
BEI Suspensi Saham Bristol-Myers
Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) akhirnya mengehntikan sementara perdagangan (suspensi) saham PT Bristol-Myers Squibb Indonesia Tbk mulai sesi I perdagangan Kamis (17/9) ini.
Laba Bersih WOMF Anjlok 26,5%
PT Wahana Ottomitra Multiartha Tbk (WOMF) selama Januari sampai Juni 2009 mengantongi laba bersih anjlok 26,5% menjadi Rp10,71 miliar dari Rp14,57miliar.
Dalam jangka panjang saham properti akan memiliki prospek yang bagus. Berdasarkan data pergerakan saham, prospek saham properti mulai meningkat setelah kenaikan saham perbankan. Saham yang layak menjadi pilihan adalah BSDE dan CTRA.
IHSG pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan akan naik. Namun demikian, hari terakhir menjelang libur panjang juga memungkinkan aksi profit taking di bursa. IHSG akan diperdagangan dengan kisaran 2.425-2.483.
PT Metrodata Electronics Tbk (MTDL) melakukan pembelian kembali (buyback) yang bersifat utang sebesar Rp 4,5 miliar atas Sukuk Ijarah Metrodata I Tahun 2008.
PEROLEH MODAL KERJA US$ 10 JUTA, Bayan Tunjuk Standchart Fasilitasi Proyek US$ 150 Juta
PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) menunjuk Standard Chartered Bank (Standchart) sebagai penasihat keuangan untuk memfasilitasi pengembangan proyek senilai US$ 150 juta. Proyek tersebut akan digarap anak usaha perseroan, PT Kaltim Supacoal.
INDY: Laba Bersih 1H09 Terpangkas 25,3% Yoy
Laba bersih INDY 1H09 turun 25,3% yoy dari Rp483,26 miliar jadi Rp360,56 miliar, seiring pendapatannya turun 37,2% yoy dari Rp1,3 triliun jadi Rp815,17 miliar. Selain itu, mencatat kerugian kurs sebesar Rp222,44 miliar, beban usaha Rp40,23 miliar dan beban bunga Rp126,21 miliar. Pendapatan kontrak 1H09 anjlok 60% yoy dari Rp1,18 triliun jadi Rp475,29 miliar, sedangkan penjualan batubaranya naik 76,79% yoy jadi Rp199,88 miliar dan penjualan jasa melonjak jadi Rp139,99 miliar dari Rp830,55 juta.
Cement: Penjualan Semen Agustus Meningkat 7,5% yoy
Realisasi penjualan semen pada Agustus 2009 meningkat 7,5% yoy menjadi 3,565 juta ton dari 3,317 juta ton. Ini merupakan penjualan tertinggi sepanjang tahun ini. Hal ini disebabkan oleh pemangkasan suku bunga acuan hingga 6,5% sehingga mendorong pengembang mengerjakan sejumlah property dan permintaan semen mulai naik sejak Juli.
SQBI: Diakuisisi Taisho, Akan Tender Offer
Taisho Pharmaceutical Co Ltd, perusahaan farmasi asal Jepang akan mengakuisisi 10.032.250 atau 97,97% saham SQBI senilai US$ 150 juta ( Rp 1,5 triliun ) atau Rp 149.517,81/saham, premium 171,84% dari harga pasar tersebut. Selain itu, Taisho juga akan membayar US$ 160 juta guna membeli merek dagang perseroan sehingga totalnya mencapai US$310 juta. Transaksi tersebut akan mewajibkan Taisho melaksanakan tender offer saham SQBI.
INDY: Kantongi Kontrak Penjualan 80% Batubara, Bantah Akan Akuisisi Maruwai
INDY telah mengantongi kesepakatan penjualan 19,2 juta ton batubara atau 80% dari target produksi batubara FY09 yakni 24 juta ton. Sementara itu, perseroan membantah kabar bahwa perseroan berencana mengakuisisi tambang batubara Maruwai , Kalteng karena hingga saat ini manjemen belum melakukan pembicaraan terkait akuisisi tersebut.
RMBA Beri Insentif Pemegang Obligasi
PT Bentoel International Investama Tbk selaku penerbit obligasi itu akan memberikan insentif berupa bonus bunga 0,25% dari nilai pokok obligasi.
DGIK: Tuntaskan Proyek Rp264 Miliar
DGIK menuntaskan dua proyek senilai Rp264 miliar meliputi pembangunan gedung Cyber Rp190 miliar dan gedung kantor upati Halmahera Rp74 miliar. Hingga September, perseroan sudah merampungkan 7 proyek dari 41 proyek yang tengah dikerjakan tahun ini.
SDRA: Targetkan Kredit Rp 1,7 Triliun
Bank Saudara menargetkan penyaluran kredit Rp 1,7 triliun hingga akhir tahun. Kemungkinan target tersebut akan tercapai mengingat total kredit per Juni telah mencapai Rp1,6 triliun. Pada 1H09, CAR perusahaan juga masih stabil yakni 13% dan NPL sebesar 1,6%.
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Investor-daily, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Isu Positif Regional & Domestik Dapat Angkat IHSG Ke Level 2,500an
Market Review
IHSG kembali diuntungkan oleh imbas penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar yang mencapai level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008 (penutupan kemarin di Rp 9,705 dan kenaikan indeks saham regional dan Wall Street di hari sebelumnya, berkat optimisme pasar setelah mendengar pernyataan dari Chairman Fed Bernanke dan Billionaire AS Warren Buffett hari Selasa. Masih dominannya kinerja saham BUMI dan perbankan nasional setelah mendapatkan katalis positif dari laporan lembaga pemeringkat internasional menaikkan rating mata uang lokal dan asing Indonesia menjadi Ba2 dari Ba3. Kenaikan sejumlah saham komoditi mengikuti kenaikan harga kelapa sawit, harga minyak diatas US$ 71 dan emas (US$ 1,020/ons). IHSG menguat 19.248 poin (+0.8%) ditutup di 2,439.357, nilai transaksi Rp 4.353 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp 156 miliar kemarin, dibandingkan net buy Rp 315 miliar miliar (15/09).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pasific mengalami kenaikan terbesar dalam 3 pekan, karena lebih baik dari perkiraan data penjualan ritel AS yang meningkatkan prospek penjualan eksportir, diikuti pernyataan Fed Bernanke bahwa resesi terburuk mungkin berakhir di tahun ini dan Billionaire AS Warren Buffett mengatakan perusahaannya membeli saham, diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi, topang kinerja saham Asia.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 31.1 8% +41% 6.50% 2.75% 4.0%
STI 22.00 16% +6.5% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 15.0 10% -0.5% 2.0% 3.00% -3.9%
SET 29.05 4% -6.1% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 33.4 36% +44% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 45.2 -1% -13.0% 0.10% -0.10% -6.3%
HSI 22.5 19% +9.4% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 14.1 3% -15.5% 0.25% -1.5% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Potensi penguatan IHSG hari ini dibayangi oleh aksi profit-taking menjelang liburan panjang Hari Raya Idul Fitri (IHSG tutup 18-23 September), setelah IHSG mencetak level tertinggi sejak Juni 2008 yang diikuti oleh penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar yang kemarin mencatat level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008. Peran penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (tembus resistance 9,850 target Rp 9,500) memberikan sentimen positif untuk saham lokal seperti saham di sektor perbankan, konsumer dan property mengantisipasi terkendalinya inflasi di bulan ini yang berpotensi mendorong penurunan suku bunga BI di bulan depan. Dampak dari laporan kenaikan rating mata uang lokal dan asing Indonesia menjadi Ba2 dari Ba3 yang tertinggi 11 tahun oleh lembaga pemeringkat Moody’s (kebalnya ekonomi RI terhadap resesi global), ikut menguatkan saham lokal. Kondisi tersebut diperkuat dampak kenaikan harga komoditi (kelapa sawit, emas dan minyak) yang mengangkat harga saham komoditi
pertambangan dan perkebunan. Kuatnya sentimen dari indeks saham global yang positif paska pernyataan komentar Fed Bernanke dan Warren Buffett, ikut topang kinerja IHSG.
Meski potensi kenaikan terbatas meski IHSG secara teknikal ditutup diatas tahanan kuat 2,425, karena perkiraan investor akan melakukan aksi profit-taking menjelang liburan panjang (18 – 23 September), mahalnya valuasi IHSG saat ini diantara negara di Asia Tenggara, seharusnya dapat menghambat kinerja IHSG untuk menguat lebih lanjut
Stock Picks:Average last 12 week +72.87%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: BUMI, KLBF, MNCN, UNVR, BRPT, BBRI, INTP, SMCB, INDF, JSMR, INCO, ANTM. Profit Taking Today.
Stock Picks:
• MYOR : Overweight target Rp 3,000
• SULI : Speculative Buy target Rp 750
Global Outlook
Kinerja indeks saham MSCI yang baru saja mencapai tertinggi 1-tahun dan indeks DJIA (target 9,850) yang mencapai level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008, diperkirakan dapat dipertahankan hingga akhir pekan ini, terutama melihat imbas positif dari isu pemulihan ekonomi global dan prospek pertumbuhan pendapatan korporasi global di semester 2 2009, terutama paska pernyataan Fed Bernanke (melihat peluang resesi global berakhir di tahun ini), investor terkaya AS Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway membeli saham baru-baru ini) dan Ex Fed Greenspan (6 bulan emndatang terlihat cukup mudah diantisipasi, tidak ada inflasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang bagus). Hal tersebut didukung oleh sejumlah data ekonomi global yang tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar pada awal pekan ini (CPI Inggris, ZEW Jerman, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Cap Utility, Current Account), diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi (minyak US$ 71.173, berkat inventory crude AS anjlok 4.7 juta barel di pekan
lalu; emas sentuh tertinggi US$ 1,020/ons), ikut berperan topang kinerja saham global menjelang pertemuan kepala negara G20 di Pittsburg AS pekan depan.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG masih mempertahankan momentum bullish continuation, karena masih mendapatkan signal positif dari candle long opening marubozu dan berada dalam uptrend channel dengan support 2,405, terutama setelah breakout 2,425 (high 11/09: Fibonacci retracement 76.4%: 2838-1089). Indikator ADX meningkat, stochastic dan MACD konstruktif bullish, diatas 5 & 10 MA & support channel di 2,405/2360 (trendline), jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut, dapat terkoreksi ke 2,271 (double bottom). Hitungan EW: IHSG berada di subwave minuette iii/5 dalam wave impulse minute 3 target 2,465/2500 (projection 161.8)/2,550 (upper channel).
Resistance: 2488.51/2466.68/2455.77/2440.75. PP 2433.94
Support : 2429.84/2418.92/2401.20/2390.28
www.strategydesk.ci.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Universal Broker Indonesia Securities: TF)
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IHSG kembali diuntungkan oleh imbas penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar yang mencapai level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008 (penutupan kemarin di Rp 9,705 dan kenaikan indeks saham regional dan Wall Street di hari sebelumnya, berkat optimisme pasar setelah mendengar pernyataan dari Chairman Fed Bernanke dan Billionaire AS Warren Buffett hari Selasa. Masih dominannya kinerja saham BUMI dan perbankan nasional setelah mendapatkan katalis positif dari laporan lembaga pemeringkat internasional menaikkan rating mata uang lokal dan asing Indonesia menjadi Ba2 dari Ba3. Kenaikan sejumlah saham komoditi mengikuti kenaikan harga kelapa sawit, harga minyak diatas US$ 71 dan emas (US$ 1,020/ons). IHSG menguat 19.248 poin (+0.8%) ditutup di 2,439.357, nilai transaksi Rp 4.353 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp 156 miliar kemarin, dibandingkan net buy Rp 315 miliar miliar (15/09).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pasific mengalami kenaikan terbesar dalam 3 pekan, karena lebih baik dari perkiraan data penjualan ritel AS yang meningkatkan prospek penjualan eksportir, diikuti pernyataan Fed Bernanke bahwa resesi terburuk mungkin berakhir di tahun ini dan Billionaire AS Warren Buffett mengatakan perusahaannya membeli saham, diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi, topang kinerja saham Asia.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 31.1 8% +41% 6.50% 2.75% 4.0%
STI 22.00 16% +6.5% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 15.0 10% -0.5% 2.0% 3.00% -3.9%
SET 29.05 4% -6.1% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 33.4 36% +44% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 45.2 -1% -13.0% 0.10% -0.10% -6.3%
HSI 22.5 19% +9.4% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 14.1 3% -15.5% 0.25% -1.5% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Potensi penguatan IHSG hari ini dibayangi oleh aksi profit-taking menjelang liburan panjang Hari Raya Idul Fitri (IHSG tutup 18-23 September), setelah IHSG mencetak level tertinggi sejak Juni 2008 yang diikuti oleh penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar yang kemarin mencatat level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008. Peran penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (tembus resistance 9,850 target Rp 9,500) memberikan sentimen positif untuk saham lokal seperti saham di sektor perbankan, konsumer dan property mengantisipasi terkendalinya inflasi di bulan ini yang berpotensi mendorong penurunan suku bunga BI di bulan depan. Dampak dari laporan kenaikan rating mata uang lokal dan asing Indonesia menjadi Ba2 dari Ba3 yang tertinggi 11 tahun oleh lembaga pemeringkat Moody’s (kebalnya ekonomi RI terhadap resesi global), ikut menguatkan saham lokal. Kondisi tersebut diperkuat dampak kenaikan harga komoditi (kelapa sawit, emas dan minyak) yang mengangkat harga saham komoditi
pertambangan dan perkebunan. Kuatnya sentimen dari indeks saham global yang positif paska pernyataan komentar Fed Bernanke dan Warren Buffett, ikut topang kinerja IHSG.
Meski potensi kenaikan terbatas meski IHSG secara teknikal ditutup diatas tahanan kuat 2,425, karena perkiraan investor akan melakukan aksi profit-taking menjelang liburan panjang (18 – 23 September), mahalnya valuasi IHSG saat ini diantara negara di Asia Tenggara, seharusnya dapat menghambat kinerja IHSG untuk menguat lebih lanjut
Stock Picks:Average last 12 week +72.87%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: BUMI, KLBF, MNCN, UNVR, BRPT, BBRI, INTP, SMCB, INDF, JSMR, INCO, ANTM. Profit Taking Today.
Stock Picks:
• MYOR : Overweight target Rp 3,000
• SULI : Speculative Buy target Rp 750
Global Outlook
Kinerja indeks saham MSCI yang baru saja mencapai tertinggi 1-tahun dan indeks DJIA (target 9,850) yang mencapai level tertinggi sejak Oktober 2008, diperkirakan dapat dipertahankan hingga akhir pekan ini, terutama melihat imbas positif dari isu pemulihan ekonomi global dan prospek pertumbuhan pendapatan korporasi global di semester 2 2009, terutama paska pernyataan Fed Bernanke (melihat peluang resesi global berakhir di tahun ini), investor terkaya AS Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway membeli saham baru-baru ini) dan Ex Fed Greenspan (6 bulan emndatang terlihat cukup mudah diantisipasi, tidak ada inflasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang bagus). Hal tersebut didukung oleh sejumlah data ekonomi global yang tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar pada awal pekan ini (CPI Inggris, ZEW Jerman, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Cap Utility, Current Account), diikuti kenaikan harga komoditi (minyak US$ 71.173, berkat inventory crude AS anjlok 4.7 juta barel di pekan
lalu; emas sentuh tertinggi US$ 1,020/ons), ikut berperan topang kinerja saham global menjelang pertemuan kepala negara G20 di Pittsburg AS pekan depan.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG masih mempertahankan momentum bullish continuation, karena masih mendapatkan signal positif dari candle long opening marubozu dan berada dalam uptrend channel dengan support 2,405, terutama setelah breakout 2,425 (high 11/09: Fibonacci retracement 76.4%: 2838-1089). Indikator ADX meningkat, stochastic dan MACD konstruktif bullish, diatas 5 & 10 MA & support channel di 2,405/2360 (trendline), jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut, dapat terkoreksi ke 2,271 (double bottom). Hitungan EW: IHSG berada di subwave minuette iii/5 dalam wave impulse minute 3 target 2,465/2500 (projection 161.8)/2,550 (upper channel).
Resistance: 2488.51/2466.68/2455.77/2440.75. PP 2433.94
Support : 2429.84/2418.92/2401.20/2390.28
www.strategydesk.ci.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Universal Broker Indonesia Securities: TF)
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Isu Pemulihan Ekonomi Global Masih Topang Kinerja Indeks Saham Asia
Nikkei Futures Kontrak Desember (SSIZ9)
Indeks Nikkei ditutup naik 0,52% kemarin, dipicu menguat saham Canon Inc dan saham ekspotir lainnya setelah mencuatnya optimisme pasar terhadap ekonomi AS seiring mambaiknya data penjualan ritel. Meski indeks Nikkei sempat menguat hingga 1,7%, rally itu akhirnya terpangkas, yang disinyalir karena kecemasan pasar akan pemerintahan baru dan ancaman reformasi finansial yang kemungkinan dilakukannya. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup naik 53,15 poin, atau 0,52%, ke posisi 10.270,77.
Nikkei menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle homing pidgeon meski masih berada dalam uptrend channel. Sejumlah indikator mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas, karena ADX meningkat, stochastic dan MACD bearish. Selama indeks gagal mencapai diatas 10,330, trend masih bearish. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada dalam wave koreksi 5/B dalam koreksi ABC dalam subwave (4). Resistance di 10330 (trendline)/10410 (Fibo 76.4%). Support 10160 (trendline)/10010 (higher low). Perkiraan range hari ini 10100-10300. Rekomendasi Sell 10410 target 10150 stp 100p, Hold Buy 10150 target 10410 stop 100p, buy 10,000 target 10400, Buy 9880 target 9350. Chart SSIZ9 1-Jam
Kospi Futures Kontrak Desember (KSZ9)
Indeks Kospi berhasil melonjak 1,81% kemarin, sekaligus membukukan level penutupan tertinggi hampir dalam 15 bulan terakhir, di tengah harapan harapan pemulihan ekonomi global. Saham eksportir dan perbankan mendapatkan keuntungan dari kondisi tersebut. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup menguat 29,93 poin, atau 1,81%, ke posisi 1.683,33 poin, merupaka level penutupan tertinggi sejak Juni 2008.
Indeks kembali menunjukkan signal positif dari pola uptrend channel dan pola risng window dengan candle long bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan. Kendati menunjukkan divergence di volume dan MACD, dengan Indikator ADX menurun, MACD masih bullish, seharusnya mendukung membatasi potensi kenaikan. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks di wave 2/A. Resistance di 222.75 (upper channel)/224.30 (projection 161.8). Support 214.20/212.00. Rekomendasi Buy 216.50 & 213.50 target 224.50 stop 60p, Sell 222.50 & 224.70 target 220.00, Sell break 212.50 target 209.00 stop 60p. Buy 209.00 target 216.50 stop 60p. Chart KSZ9 1-Jam
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak September (HSIU9)
Bursa Hong Kong ditutup melonjak 2,57% kemarin, sekaligus mendekati level penutupan tertinggi dalam 13 bulan terakhir. Saham bank picu kenaikan indeks di tengah optimisme pemulihan ekonomi global dari resesi. Bank of China melonjak lebih dari 4% menjadi HK$4,40, level penutupan tertinggi dalam 22 bulan terakhir. China Contruction Bank bertambah 2,5% dan HSBC menguat 3,1%. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup melonjak 536,55 poin, atau 2,57%, ke posisi 21.402,92.
Dalam chart daily, Indeks menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle long bullish, breakout double top, masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, di tengah kondisi stochastic crossover, indikator ADX menguat, MACD bullish & divergence, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan. Indeks mendapatkan sejumlah resistance 21540/21835. Support di 20150/20830. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan w. 1/5. Rekomendasi: Buy 20850 target 21300 stop 100p. Sell 21540 & 21800 target 20,850 stop 100p. Buy 20550 target 20850 stop 100p. Sell break 20750 target 20250 stop 100p, Buy 20250 target 20750, buy 21150 target 21450 stop 100p. (-100p) Chart HSIU9 1-Jam
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Indeks Nikkei ditutup naik 0,52% kemarin, dipicu menguat saham Canon Inc dan saham ekspotir lainnya setelah mencuatnya optimisme pasar terhadap ekonomi AS seiring mambaiknya data penjualan ritel. Meski indeks Nikkei sempat menguat hingga 1,7%, rally itu akhirnya terpangkas, yang disinyalir karena kecemasan pasar akan pemerintahan baru dan ancaman reformasi finansial yang kemungkinan dilakukannya. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup naik 53,15 poin, atau 0,52%, ke posisi 10.270,77.
Nikkei menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle homing pidgeon meski masih berada dalam uptrend channel. Sejumlah indikator mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas, karena ADX meningkat, stochastic dan MACD bearish. Selama indeks gagal mencapai diatas 10,330, trend masih bearish. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada dalam wave koreksi 5/B dalam koreksi ABC dalam subwave (4). Resistance di 10330 (trendline)/10410 (Fibo 76.4%). Support 10160 (trendline)/10010 (higher low). Perkiraan range hari ini 10100-10300. Rekomendasi Sell 10410 target 10150 stp 100p, Hold Buy 10150 target 10410 stop 100p, buy 10,000 target 10400, Buy 9880 target 9350. Chart SSIZ9 1-Jam
Kospi Futures Kontrak Desember (KSZ9)
Indeks Kospi berhasil melonjak 1,81% kemarin, sekaligus membukukan level penutupan tertinggi hampir dalam 15 bulan terakhir, di tengah harapan harapan pemulihan ekonomi global. Saham eksportir dan perbankan mendapatkan keuntungan dari kondisi tersebut. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup menguat 29,93 poin, atau 1,81%, ke posisi 1.683,33 poin, merupaka level penutupan tertinggi sejak Juni 2008.
Indeks kembali menunjukkan signal positif dari pola uptrend channel dan pola risng window dengan candle long bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan. Kendati menunjukkan divergence di volume dan MACD, dengan Indikator ADX menurun, MACD masih bullish, seharusnya mendukung membatasi potensi kenaikan. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks di wave 2/A. Resistance di 222.75 (upper channel)/224.30 (projection 161.8). Support 214.20/212.00. Rekomendasi Buy 216.50 & 213.50 target 224.50 stop 60p, Sell 222.50 & 224.70 target 220.00, Sell break 212.50 target 209.00 stop 60p. Buy 209.00 target 216.50 stop 60p. Chart KSZ9 1-Jam
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak September (HSIU9)
Bursa Hong Kong ditutup melonjak 2,57% kemarin, sekaligus mendekati level penutupan tertinggi dalam 13 bulan terakhir. Saham bank picu kenaikan indeks di tengah optimisme pemulihan ekonomi global dari resesi. Bank of China melonjak lebih dari 4% menjadi HK$4,40, level penutupan tertinggi dalam 22 bulan terakhir. China Contruction Bank bertambah 2,5% dan HSBC menguat 3,1%. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup melonjak 536,55 poin, atau 2,57%, ke posisi 21.402,92.
Dalam chart daily, Indeks menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle long bullish, breakout double top, masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, di tengah kondisi stochastic crossover, indikator ADX menguat, MACD bullish & divergence, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan. Indeks mendapatkan sejumlah resistance 21540/21835. Support di 20150/20830. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan w. 1/5. Rekomendasi: Buy 20850 target 21300 stop 100p. Sell 21540 & 21800 target 20,850 stop 100p. Buy 20550 target 20850 stop 100p. Sell break 20750 target 20250 stop 100p, Buy 20250 target 20750, buy 21150 target 21450 stop 100p. (-100p) Chart HSIU9 1-Jam
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www.harumdanaberjangka.co.id
Kondisi Teknikal Yang Bullish, Masih Topang Kinerja Euro & pound
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
(-70p) Euro masih menunjukkan pola bullish continuation dalam uptrend channel, kendati menunjukan pola candle long bullish candle diikuti indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi kenaikan. Support di 1.4650 (5 day MA)/1.4545. Resistance berada di 1.4779 (middle channel) /1.4940. Euro menunjukkan impulse wave 5/3 untuk target 1.4750/1.4920, selama tidak menembus 1.4445. Buy 1.4550 target 1.4780, Buy 1.4650 target 1.4500 stop 1.4200, sell break 1.4250 target 1.4100 stop 60p. Sell 1.4770 target 1.4550 stop 70p, buy 1.4000 trgt 1.4350. stop 160 poin, sell break 1.4400 tgt 1.4200.
USD-JPY
USDJPY menunjukkan pola candle bullish hammer dan berada dalam pola downtrend channel dengan resistance di 91.40. Penutupan dibawah channel di 91.65 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low di 90.00/89.65 (former low). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan selama bertahan di atas 90.00. Resistance berada di 91.70/92.50, support di 90.00/89.65. Sell 91.70 target 90.50 stop 60p. buy break 92.00 target 93.60 stop 60p. Sell 94.20 stop 60p target 91.50 & sell 93.50 target 91.70 stop 92.00. Hold Buy 90.20 target 91.70 stop 89.50. Buy 89.65 target 91.90.
GBP-USD
GBP menunjukkan pola bearish continuation dari candle long bearish diikuti signal breakout channel, meski masih berada di atas upper channel di 1.6453, diikuti indikator ADX terkoreksi dan MACD di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas 1.6453. EW menunjukkan GBP berada dalam wave impulse c/A. Buy 1.6420 target 1.6550 stop 1.6340. Hold sell 1.6540 target 1.6420 stop 60p, buy 1.6280 target 1.6550. Sell break 1.6230 target 1.6050 stop 60p. Sell 1.6750 target 1.6550 stop 60p. Sell 1.6650 target 1.6400 stop 1.6700.
AUD-USD
(+130p) AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka pendek, diikuti pola bullish dari long blue candle, diikuti indikator ADX meningkat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan selama di tutup diatas downchannel 0.8630. Resistance di 0.8790/0.8850, support di 0.8675/0.8630. Buy 0.8675 target 0.8850, sell 0.8850 target 0.8630 & sell 0.8820 stop 0.8540, buy 0.8500 target 0.8700. sell break 0.8600 target 0.8500.
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EUR-USD
(-70p) Euro masih menunjukkan pola bullish continuation dalam uptrend channel, kendati menunjukan pola candle long bullish candle diikuti indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi kenaikan. Support di 1.4650 (5 day MA)/1.4545. Resistance berada di 1.4779 (middle channel) /1.4940. Euro menunjukkan impulse wave 5/3 untuk target 1.4750/1.4920, selama tidak menembus 1.4445. Buy 1.4550 target 1.4780, Buy 1.4650 target 1.4500 stop 1.4200, sell break 1.4250 target 1.4100 stop 60p. Sell 1.4770 target 1.4550 stop 70p, buy 1.4000 trgt 1.4350. stop 160 poin, sell break 1.4400 tgt 1.4200.
USD-JPY
USDJPY menunjukkan pola candle bullish hammer dan berada dalam pola downtrend channel dengan resistance di 91.40. Penutupan dibawah channel di 91.65 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low di 90.00/89.65 (former low). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan selama bertahan di atas 90.00. Resistance berada di 91.70/92.50, support di 90.00/89.65. Sell 91.70 target 90.50 stop 60p. buy break 92.00 target 93.60 stop 60p. Sell 94.20 stop 60p target 91.50 & sell 93.50 target 91.70 stop 92.00. Hold Buy 90.20 target 91.70 stop 89.50. Buy 89.65 target 91.90.
GBP-USD
GBP menunjukkan pola bearish continuation dari candle long bearish diikuti signal breakout channel, meski masih berada di atas upper channel di 1.6453, diikuti indikator ADX terkoreksi dan MACD di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas 1.6453. EW menunjukkan GBP berada dalam wave impulse c/A. Buy 1.6420 target 1.6550 stop 1.6340. Hold sell 1.6540 target 1.6420 stop 60p, buy 1.6280 target 1.6550. Sell break 1.6230 target 1.6050 stop 60p. Sell 1.6750 target 1.6550 stop 60p. Sell 1.6650 target 1.6400 stop 1.6700.
AUD-USD
(+130p) AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka pendek, diikuti pola bullish dari long blue candle, diikuti indikator ADX meningkat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan selama di tutup diatas downchannel 0.8630. Resistance di 0.8790/0.8850, support di 0.8675/0.8630. Buy 0.8675 target 0.8850, sell 0.8850 target 0.8630 & sell 0.8820 stop 0.8540, buy 0.8500 target 0.8700. sell break 0.8600 target 0.8500.
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Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Warren Buffett Says Economy Has ‘Hit a Plateau at Bottom’, Won't Dip Again
Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor who last year called the financial crisis an “economic Pearl Harbor,” said the U.S. economy has “hit a plateau at bottom.” “We have not bounced but we’ve quit going down,” Buffett, the 79-year-old chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said today in an interview on CNBC.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYraS__55h34
globalmarketstrategist.blogpot.com
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYraS__55h34
globalmarketstrategist.blogpot.com
Indonesia Debt Ratings Raised by Moody’s on Economy
Indonesia’s sovereign debt ratings were raised to the highest level in 11 years by Moody’s Investors Service after Southeast Asia’s largest economy avoided following its neighbors into recession.Moody’s lifted Indonesia’s local and foreign-currency rating one level to Ba2, the company said in a statement today, citing the economy’s “resilience to the global recession.” That’s two levels below investment grade and on a par with Guatemala, Armenia and Jordan.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRw.DZB2q5Y4
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRw.DZB2q5Y4
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Pound May Climb to $1.70 on Dollar Weakness: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The pound may strengthen to $1.7050 in the “medium term” amid weakness in the U.S. currency, according to Commerzbank AG, which cited trading patterns. “Pound-dollar has sold off to its 50 percent retracement of the recent leg higher,” Karen Jones, a technical analyst in London, wrote today in a report, citing Fibonacci analysis. “The move lower is regarded as corrective as we look for dips to be contained by the $1.6320-$1.6250 band for an upside bias to be maintained,” she said. “Add to longs on further weakness to $1.6350,” Jones said. A long position is a bet an asset will appreciate in value.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aB.3G4icoqZw
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aB.3G4icoqZw
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EURUSD
Today's support: - 1.4620 and 1.4577(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.4552, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.4514. Break of the latter would result in 1.4490. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.4477. Continuation will give 1.4442.Today's resistance: - 1.4682(main). Break would give 1.4693, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4712. Break of the latter would result in 1.4738. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4755 Continuation will give 1.4783.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 90.61, 90.43, 90.14 and 89.84(main). Break would bring 89.59, where correction is possible. Then 89.32, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 89.12. If a strong impulse, we would see 88.85. Continuation would give 88.32.Today's resistance: - 91.46(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 91.75, where also a correction may be. Then 91.95. If a strong impulse, we would see 92.27. Continuation will give 92.40 and 92.67.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9618.74, 9590.63, 9573.75 and 9541.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9514.70, where correction also can be. Then follows 9489.37. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9452.62 Continuation will bring 9410.62 and 9364.20.Today's resistance: - 9728.44 and 9743.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9756.56, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9787.40, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9812.77. Continuation would bring 9824.06.
EURUSD
Today's support: - 1.4620 and 1.4577(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.4552, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.4514. Break of the latter would result in 1.4490. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.4477. Continuation will give 1.4442.Today's resistance: - 1.4682(main). Break would give 1.4693, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4712. Break of the latter would result in 1.4738. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4755 Continuation will give 1.4783.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 90.61, 90.43, 90.14 and 89.84(main). Break would bring 89.59, where correction is possible. Then 89.32, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 89.12. If a strong impulse, we would see 88.85. Continuation would give 88.32.Today's resistance: - 91.46(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 91.75, where also a correction may be. Then 91.95. If a strong impulse, we would see 92.27. Continuation will give 92.40 and 92.67.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9618.74, 9590.63, 9573.75 and 9541.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9514.70, where correction also can be. Then follows 9489.37. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9452.62 Continuation will bring 9410.62 and 9364.20.Today's resistance: - 9728.44 and 9743.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9756.56, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9787.40, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9812.77. Continuation would bring 9824.06.
Is the Bear Market's Most Violent Decline Right Around the Corner?
Is the most powerful of all waves right around the corner?
The short answer is "YES."
See an idealized impulse wave 3
in bull and bear markets.
The long answer will help you anticipate where and when
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2009/09/15/Is-the-Bear-Markets-Most-Violent-Decline-Right-Around-the-Corner.aspx
The short answer is "YES."
See an idealized impulse wave 3
in bull and bear markets.
The long answer will help you anticipate where and when
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2009/09/15/Is-the-Bear-Markets-Most-Violent-Decline-Right-Around-the-Corner.aspx
S&P 500 PE Ratio For September 2009
The S&P 500 PE ratio is an important determinant of the value of stock market and the trend of the S&P 500 (^GSPC: 1052.63 0.00 0.00%). Historically, the S&P 500 PE ratio has a median of 15.7. Today, the S&P PE ratio is 139 based on a closing price of 1,044 on Friday, September 11, 2009. This assumes the trailing earnings for the S&P 500 companies as reported by Standard & Poor’s for the four quarters ending June 30, 2009. A PE ratio at 139 is not sustainable. What is a reasonable PE ratio for the S&P 500 given our current situation?
Download Article S&P 500
Download Article S&P 500
Elliott Wave: GBP/USD Daily & Weekly Analysis
GBP/USD – Wave (v) of C possibly ended at 1.7044
The rebound in the British pound from 1.6113 suggests the first leg of decline from 1.7044 has ended there and consolidation within 1.6113-1.7044 would take place with mild upside bias and although gain to 1.6688 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.7044 to 1.6113) cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited to 1.7000 and as long as 1.7044 holds, another decline would take place later this month.Our preferred count on the daily chart is that the major decline from 2.1162 top (9 Nov, 2007) is a 5-waver with wave 1: 1.9337, 2: 2.0399, extended wave 3 has ended at 1.3500 and wave 4 is unfolding with A: 1.4986, B: 1.3655 and impulsive wave C is sub-divided into (i): 1.5068, (ii): 1.4398, (iii): 1.6745, (iv): 1.5983 and wave (v) has ended at 1.7044.
On the downside, below 1.6320/30 would bring test of said support at 1.6113, however, break there is needed to add credence to our bearish count and bring further fall to 1.6000, however, only a daily close below 1.5983 support would confirm the view that the entire rise from 1.3500 has ended at 1.7044 and bring weakness towards 1.5802 support, then 1.5690 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 1.3500 to 1.7044).In the event cable rises above 1.7044 resistance, this would signal the final wave (v) is still unfolding and gain to 1.7200 would follow and possibly towards 1.7528 (50% projection of wave (i) to (iii) measuring from wave (iv) tough) but this wave (v) as well as wave 4 should still falter below 1.7893 (61.8% projection) bring wave 5 selloff probably in Q4.
The rebound in the British pound from 1.6113 suggests the first leg of decline from 1.7044 has ended there and consolidation within 1.6113-1.7044 would take place with mild upside bias and although gain to 1.6688 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.7044 to 1.6113) cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited to 1.7000 and as long as 1.7044 holds, another decline would take place later this month.Our preferred count on the daily chart is that the major decline from 2.1162 top (9 Nov, 2007) is a 5-waver with wave 1: 1.9337, 2: 2.0399, extended wave 3 has ended at 1.3500 and wave 4 is unfolding with A: 1.4986, B: 1.3655 and impulsive wave C is sub-divided into (i): 1.5068, (ii): 1.4398, (iii): 1.6745, (iv): 1.5983 and wave (v) has ended at 1.7044.
On the downside, below 1.6320/30 would bring test of said support at 1.6113, however, break there is needed to add credence to our bearish count and bring further fall to 1.6000, however, only a daily close below 1.5983 support would confirm the view that the entire rise from 1.3500 has ended at 1.7044 and bring weakness towards 1.5802 support, then 1.5690 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 1.3500 to 1.7044).In the event cable rises above 1.7044 resistance, this would signal the final wave (v) is still unfolding and gain to 1.7200 would follow and possibly towards 1.7528 (50% projection of wave (i) to (iii) measuring from wave (iv) tough) but this wave (v) as well as wave 4 should still falter below 1.7893 (61.8% projection) bring wave 5 selloff probably in Q4.
China Stocks’ Gain ‘Vulnerable’ to Retreat: Technical Analysis
A gain in Chinese stocks this month may be “vulnerable” to a slump that could drag a key stock index as much as 26 percent lower, CIMB-GK Research said. The Shanghai Composite Index rose in all but one of the previous 11 sessions, marking the second leg of a five-wave trend, and is nearing a key resistance level, analysts Nigel Foo and Kong Seh Siang wrote in a report today. Declines could take the index to near the 2,200 and 2,300 range, they added.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aI73dGT0sYKY
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aI73dGT0sYKY
China’s Metal Demand Returns in ‘Big Way,’ CLSA Says
Commodity demand in China, the largest metals user, “is back on track in a very big way,” and copper and coking coal have the best prospects for price gains as the world economy accelerates, according to CLSA Research Ltd. “Commodities that give investors the most upside potential when the rest of the world demand recovers” are those with supply constraints, Andrew Driscoll, head of resources research at CLSA, said in Shanghai. “In the next twelve months, having exposure to copper is going to be a good investment.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a8qbIYlqJddk
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a8qbIYlqJddk
Palm Oil to Be Biggest Winner From Oilseeds Shortage, RBS Says
Palm oil prices will rise as a shortage in the world’s cheapest edible oil is harder to remedy than the current shortage of soybeans, an analyst at Royal Bank of Scotland Asia Securities (Singapore) Pte. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ab5hLdTwBowo
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ab5hLdTwBowo
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 16-09
Research Macquarie Sec: Underperform BUMI target Rp 2,500
Research Macquarie Sec: Underperform ADRO target Rp 1,200
Research Bahana Sec: Hold BUMI target Rp 3,050
Research Bahana Sec: Buy BTEL target Rp 150
Research Bahana Sec: Hold ADRO target Rp 1,300
Research Bahana Sec: Buy ITMG target Rp 29,000
Research Mandiri Sec: Buy BTEL target Rp 150
Research NISP Sec: Sell BTEL target Rp 105
Research Optima Sec: Buy HEXA target Rp 4,175
Rumor SDRA akan diangkat ke Rp 300.
Saham Sorini Menuju Rp 1.500
HARGA saham PT Sorini Agro Asia Corporindo Tbk (SOBI) dikabarkan bakal diangkat menuju level Rp 1.500 dalam jangka pendek hingga menengah. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, ekspansi sorbitol dan produk turunannya, serta pembangunan pabrik tepung tapioka di Lampung dan diversifikasi usaha menjadi momentum kenaikan harga SOBI. Pada perdagangan kemarin, SOBI ditutup menguat Rp 20 (1,77%) ke posisi Rp 1.150.
Grup Panin Tambah Saham Asuransi Multi
GRUP Panin disebut-sebut oleh kalangan pelaku pasar akan menambah kepemilikan sahamnya pada PT Asuransi Multi Arthaguna Tbk (AMAG). Sumber Investor Daily mengatakan, sejumlah broker telah mendapat mandat untuk membeli AMAG hingga harga Rp 100 per saham. Saat ini, AMAG tergolong saham murah, karena memiliki price to earning ratio (PER) sekitar 2 kali. Pada perdagangan kemarin, AMAG ditutup naik Rp 5 (6,17%) ke level Rp 86.
IHSG Masih Bergerak Lincah
Pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di awal sesi satu terus menggeliat. Pagi ini IHSG bertengger di posisi 2439,43 poin, menguat 19.32 poin (tertinggi 2,442.144), berkat imbas kenaikan indeks saham DJIA +56.61 di 9683.41, dan penguatan rupiah ke level tertinggi Rp 9821/dolar. Peran lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi AS (inflasi, penjualan ritel, inventory bisnis AS), pernyataan Chairman Fed Bernanke mengenai kemungkinan besar resesi global telah berakhir di tahun ini dan imbas kenaikan harga minyak ($ 70.49) dan emas (US$ 1009.40). Nikkei 225 +174.28 menjadi 10391.90, Kospi +36.90 di 1690.30, Hang Seng +357.70 di 21,222.07, Shanghai -51.162 di 2,982.
Rupiah Menuju ke Kisaran Rp 9.800
Menebus pelemahan di awal pekan, rupiah kemarin akhirnya menguat kembali ke kisaran Rp 9.800 per dolar Amerika Serikat (AS). Rupiah menguat berkat spekulasi hedge fund mengkorversi dolar AS mereka ke dalam bentuk rupiah dan membeli saham domestik, di tengah trend pelemahan dolar AS terhadap global, karena meningkatnya daya tarik untuk asset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Mata uang regional menguat terhaap dolar AS. USD-JPY menguat 0.1450 di 91.0820, AUD-USD melemah 0.0003 di 0.8619, NZD-USD menguat ke 0.0012 di 0.7022, USD-SGD melemah 0.0010 di 1.4216, USD-KRW melemah 6.6250 di 1218.4250, USD-PHP melemah 0.1450 di 48.3450, USD-CNY di 6.8290, USD-MYR melemah 0.0062 di 3.5020, USD-THB melemah 0.0200 di 33.9250.
Penjualan SMGR Naik 19,6%
Pada Agustus 2009, PT Semen Gresik Tbk berhasil membukukan penjualan domestik 1,63 juta ton, naik 19,6% ketimbang penjualan Agustus 2008.
ADHI Incar Proyek Chevron US$ 500 Juta
PT Adhi Karya Tbk (ADHI) mengincar proyek pembangunan jalan, jembatan, serta proyek konstruksi lain di kawasan Chevron Pacific Indonesia di Riau.
Penerbitan Obligasi Baru akan Bebani BUMI
Kabar soal rencana penerbitan obligasi konversi PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) senilai US$ 1,9 miliar memang masih menjadi tanda tanya besar.
BUMI Incar Volume Penjualan Naik 10%
PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) menargetkan peningkatan volume penjualan sebesar 10 persen pada tahun 2009. Peningkatan volume penjualan dan pendapatan mempengaruhi kinerja perseroan pada semester 1 tahun 2009 ini.
BEI REVISI TARGET TRANSAKSI HARIAN JADI Rp 3,75 T, Transaksi Margin Mencapai Rp 24 Triliun
Transaksi margin (margin trading) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) kian diminati investor dan perusahaan sekuritas. Selama Agustus 2009, transaksi margin menyumbang 10% atau sekitar Rp 24 triliun dari total transaksi di BEI sebesar Rp 242 triliun.
Konversi Piutang Bank Mandiri di Garuda Tuntas Pekan Ini
PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) pekan ini akan menuntaskan konversi utang PT Garuda Indonesia menjadi saham. Dari total utang Garuda sebesar Rp 1 triliun kepada Bank Mandiri, sebagian akan ditukar ke saham dan sebagian lagi bakal dibayar.
Ancol Siapkan Investasi Rp 120 M
PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk (PJAA) berencana membangun wahana baru di Dunia Fantasi dengan investasi sebesar Rp 120 miliar. Proyek itu akan rampung dalam waktu dua tahun.
Penjualan Astra Agro Naik 9%
PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) membukukan kenaikan penjualan minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oilCPO) sepanjang Januari-Agustus 2009 sekitar 9% dari 637,5 ribu ton menjadi 694,7 ribu ton.
Semester II, Unggul Indah Incar Kenaikan Pendapatan 10%
PT Unggul Indah Cahaya Tbk (UICA) memperkirakan pertumbuhan pendapatan semester II-2009 sekitar 5-10% menjadi Rp 377,89 miliar. Kinerja keuangan semester dua diproyeksikan lebih tinggi dibandingkan realisasi semester pertama tahun ini.
ATPK Coal Getting Tambang Batubara MAS
PT ATPK Resources Tbk (ATPK) akan melakukan coal getting tambang batubara PT Mega Alam Sejahtera (PT MAS) di Kabupaten Berau, Kalimantan Timur untuk bisa segera berproduksi pada Oktober 2009.
Anak Usaha Bayan Raih ISO
Dua anak perusahaan PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) berhasil meraih sertifikat integrated management system.
FREN menetapkan harga konversi obligasi menjadi saham ( debt to equity swap) sebesar Rp50/saham. Selain itu, jadwal buyback obligasi I Mobile-8 Telecom 2007 senilai Rp675 miliar ditargetkan pada 17 September-13 Oktober 2009 dan melalui rights issue seri B kepada pemegang obligasi. Namun rencana tersebut masih menunggu RUPSLB pada 30 Okto09.
PT Tjiwi Kimia segera mengakuisisi 60% saham SULI jika mendapat persetujuan dari Dept. Kehutanan dan RUPS SULI.
INDF berencana ekspansi ke negara kawasan pasca mengkonsolidasi unit usahanya ke dalam empat kelompok usaha. Selanjutnya, perseroan memprediksi volume penjualan mi FY09 naik 4-5% yoy jadi 11-12 miliar bungkus sedangkan penjualan terigu naik 5-6% yoy sebanyak 2 juta ton dan CPO ditargetkan 730.000 ton.
BBKP jajaki penerbitan subdebt sekitar Rp 500 miliar hingga Rp 1 triliun menyusul belum lancarnya rencana rights issue yang dijadwalkan tahun ini. Penguatan modal diperlukan guna mendukung ekspansi ke depan. Saat ini CAR BBKP sebesar 12%.
Tahun ini, Bank Himpunan Saudara 1906 (SDRA) terus mempersiapkan rencana rights issue. Dana hasil rights issue tersebut akan digunakan untuk melakukan ekspansi kredit tahun 2010. Perusahaan akan meningkatkan kredit hingga 30% dibandingkan 2008.
Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) merencanakan pembangunan proyek Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Uap (PLTU) Cirebon 600 MW pada 2010-2011. Adapun besaran investasi yang disipkan sekitar Rp5 triliun.
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Investor-daily, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id
Research Macquarie Sec: Underperform ADRO target Rp 1,200
Research Bahana Sec: Hold BUMI target Rp 3,050
Research Bahana Sec: Buy BTEL target Rp 150
Research Bahana Sec: Hold ADRO target Rp 1,300
Research Bahana Sec: Buy ITMG target Rp 29,000
Research Mandiri Sec: Buy BTEL target Rp 150
Research NISP Sec: Sell BTEL target Rp 105
Research Optima Sec: Buy HEXA target Rp 4,175
Rumor SDRA akan diangkat ke Rp 300.
Saham Sorini Menuju Rp 1.500
HARGA saham PT Sorini Agro Asia Corporindo Tbk (SOBI) dikabarkan bakal diangkat menuju level Rp 1.500 dalam jangka pendek hingga menengah. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, ekspansi sorbitol dan produk turunannya, serta pembangunan pabrik tepung tapioka di Lampung dan diversifikasi usaha menjadi momentum kenaikan harga SOBI. Pada perdagangan kemarin, SOBI ditutup menguat Rp 20 (1,77%) ke posisi Rp 1.150.
Grup Panin Tambah Saham Asuransi Multi
GRUP Panin disebut-sebut oleh kalangan pelaku pasar akan menambah kepemilikan sahamnya pada PT Asuransi Multi Arthaguna Tbk (AMAG). Sumber Investor Daily mengatakan, sejumlah broker telah mendapat mandat untuk membeli AMAG hingga harga Rp 100 per saham. Saat ini, AMAG tergolong saham murah, karena memiliki price to earning ratio (PER) sekitar 2 kali. Pada perdagangan kemarin, AMAG ditutup naik Rp 5 (6,17%) ke level Rp 86.
IHSG Masih Bergerak Lincah
Pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di awal sesi satu terus menggeliat. Pagi ini IHSG bertengger di posisi 2439,43 poin, menguat 19.32 poin (tertinggi 2,442.144), berkat imbas kenaikan indeks saham DJIA +56.61 di 9683.41, dan penguatan rupiah ke level tertinggi Rp 9821/dolar. Peran lebih baik dari perkiraan data ekonomi AS (inflasi, penjualan ritel, inventory bisnis AS), pernyataan Chairman Fed Bernanke mengenai kemungkinan besar resesi global telah berakhir di tahun ini dan imbas kenaikan harga minyak ($ 70.49) dan emas (US$ 1009.40). Nikkei 225 +174.28 menjadi 10391.90, Kospi +36.90 di 1690.30, Hang Seng +357.70 di 21,222.07, Shanghai -51.162 di 2,982.
Rupiah Menuju ke Kisaran Rp 9.800
Menebus pelemahan di awal pekan, rupiah kemarin akhirnya menguat kembali ke kisaran Rp 9.800 per dolar Amerika Serikat (AS). Rupiah menguat berkat spekulasi hedge fund mengkorversi dolar AS mereka ke dalam bentuk rupiah dan membeli saham domestik, di tengah trend pelemahan dolar AS terhadap global, karena meningkatnya daya tarik untuk asset yang beresiko seperti saham dan komoditi. Mata uang regional menguat terhaap dolar AS. USD-JPY menguat 0.1450 di 91.0820, AUD-USD melemah 0.0003 di 0.8619, NZD-USD menguat ke 0.0012 di 0.7022, USD-SGD melemah 0.0010 di 1.4216, USD-KRW melemah 6.6250 di 1218.4250, USD-PHP melemah 0.1450 di 48.3450, USD-CNY di 6.8290, USD-MYR melemah 0.0062 di 3.5020, USD-THB melemah 0.0200 di 33.9250.
Penjualan SMGR Naik 19,6%
Pada Agustus 2009, PT Semen Gresik Tbk berhasil membukukan penjualan domestik 1,63 juta ton, naik 19,6% ketimbang penjualan Agustus 2008.
ADHI Incar Proyek Chevron US$ 500 Juta
PT Adhi Karya Tbk (ADHI) mengincar proyek pembangunan jalan, jembatan, serta proyek konstruksi lain di kawasan Chevron Pacific Indonesia di Riau.
Penerbitan Obligasi Baru akan Bebani BUMI
Kabar soal rencana penerbitan obligasi konversi PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) senilai US$ 1,9 miliar memang masih menjadi tanda tanya besar.
BUMI Incar Volume Penjualan Naik 10%
PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) menargetkan peningkatan volume penjualan sebesar 10 persen pada tahun 2009. Peningkatan volume penjualan dan pendapatan mempengaruhi kinerja perseroan pada semester 1 tahun 2009 ini.
BEI REVISI TARGET TRANSAKSI HARIAN JADI Rp 3,75 T, Transaksi Margin Mencapai Rp 24 Triliun
Transaksi margin (margin trading) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) kian diminati investor dan perusahaan sekuritas. Selama Agustus 2009, transaksi margin menyumbang 10% atau sekitar Rp 24 triliun dari total transaksi di BEI sebesar Rp 242 triliun.
Konversi Piutang Bank Mandiri di Garuda Tuntas Pekan Ini
PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) pekan ini akan menuntaskan konversi utang PT Garuda Indonesia menjadi saham. Dari total utang Garuda sebesar Rp 1 triliun kepada Bank Mandiri, sebagian akan ditukar ke saham dan sebagian lagi bakal dibayar.
Ancol Siapkan Investasi Rp 120 M
PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk (PJAA) berencana membangun wahana baru di Dunia Fantasi dengan investasi sebesar Rp 120 miliar. Proyek itu akan rampung dalam waktu dua tahun.
Penjualan Astra Agro Naik 9%
PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) membukukan kenaikan penjualan minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oilCPO) sepanjang Januari-Agustus 2009 sekitar 9% dari 637,5 ribu ton menjadi 694,7 ribu ton.
Semester II, Unggul Indah Incar Kenaikan Pendapatan 10%
PT Unggul Indah Cahaya Tbk (UICA) memperkirakan pertumbuhan pendapatan semester II-2009 sekitar 5-10% menjadi Rp 377,89 miliar. Kinerja keuangan semester dua diproyeksikan lebih tinggi dibandingkan realisasi semester pertama tahun ini.
ATPK Coal Getting Tambang Batubara MAS
PT ATPK Resources Tbk (ATPK) akan melakukan coal getting tambang batubara PT Mega Alam Sejahtera (PT MAS) di Kabupaten Berau, Kalimantan Timur untuk bisa segera berproduksi pada Oktober 2009.
Anak Usaha Bayan Raih ISO
Dua anak perusahaan PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) berhasil meraih sertifikat integrated management system.
FREN menetapkan harga konversi obligasi menjadi saham ( debt to equity swap) sebesar Rp50/saham. Selain itu, jadwal buyback obligasi I Mobile-8 Telecom 2007 senilai Rp675 miliar ditargetkan pada 17 September-13 Oktober 2009 dan melalui rights issue seri B kepada pemegang obligasi. Namun rencana tersebut masih menunggu RUPSLB pada 30 Okto09.
PT Tjiwi Kimia segera mengakuisisi 60% saham SULI jika mendapat persetujuan dari Dept. Kehutanan dan RUPS SULI.
INDF berencana ekspansi ke negara kawasan pasca mengkonsolidasi unit usahanya ke dalam empat kelompok usaha. Selanjutnya, perseroan memprediksi volume penjualan mi FY09 naik 4-5% yoy jadi 11-12 miliar bungkus sedangkan penjualan terigu naik 5-6% yoy sebanyak 2 juta ton dan CPO ditargetkan 730.000 ton.
BBKP jajaki penerbitan subdebt sekitar Rp 500 miliar hingga Rp 1 triliun menyusul belum lancarnya rencana rights issue yang dijadwalkan tahun ini. Penguatan modal diperlukan guna mendukung ekspansi ke depan. Saat ini CAR BBKP sebesar 12%.
Tahun ini, Bank Himpunan Saudara 1906 (SDRA) terus mempersiapkan rencana rights issue. Dana hasil rights issue tersebut akan digunakan untuk melakukan ekspansi kredit tahun 2010. Perusahaan akan meningkatkan kredit hingga 30% dibandingkan 2008.
Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) merencanakan pembangunan proyek Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Uap (PLTU) Cirebon 600 MW pada 2010-2011. Adapun besaran investasi yang disipkan sekitar Rp5 triliun.
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Investor-daily, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id
Potensi Breakout 2,425 Akan Mendukung Potensi Kenaikan IHSG Lebih Lanjut
Market Review
Munculnya sejumlah sentimen positif dari emiten Grup Bakrie, berperan mengangkat IHSG untuk ditutup di level tertinggi sejak Juni 2008, disamping kenaikan saham Wall Street hari Senin dan mayoritas indeks saham Asia mengalami kenaikan setelah pernyataan Presiden Obama hari Senin meredam kekhawatiran terhadap isu perang dagang AS-China akibat AS mengenakan tarif impor ban China. Isu China Investment Corporation (CIC) mengincar obligasi dan waran PT Bumi Resources (BUMI) senilai p 19 triliun, diikuti PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL) mencatat laba bersih sebesar 16% di semester 1 209, isu convertible bond PT Darma Henwa, memberikan kontribusi terbesar untuk kenaikan IHSG. IHSG menguat 37.407 poin (+1.57%) ditutup di 2,420.109, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 4.36 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp 315 miliar kemarin, dibandingkan net sell Rp 2.7 miliar miliar (14/09).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia menguat, dipicu oleh kenaikan saham produsen bahan material, mendorong indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific sedikit tidak berubah setelah peringatan 1-tahun kejatuhan Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc yang telah menyebabkan kerugian finansial dunia terbesar sejak awal 2007 meningkat menjadi US$ 1.6 triliun. Indeks MSCI memiliki PER rata-rata 23.6x, dibandingkan 17.4x untuk S&P 500.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 31.1 8% +34% 6.50% 2.75% 4.0%
STI 22.00 16% +3.4% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 15.0 10% -0.5% 2.0% 3.00% -3.9%
SET 29.05 4% -6.1% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 33.4 36% +29% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 45.2 -1% -15.0% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 22.5 19% -7.2% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 14.1 3% -16.0% 0.25% -1.4% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
IHSG diperkirakan masih dapat melanjutkan trend kenaikan hari ini, karena masih kuatnya aliran dana masuk ke saham domestik, di tengah optimisme terhadap kuatnya fundamental ekonomi nasional (World Bank menaikkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi 2009 RI menjadi 4.3% dari 3.5%), rendahnya inflasi dan suku bunga acuan BI yang dapat meningkatkan prospek pendapatan dan laba emiten domestik di semester 3 2009 yang akan dirilis bulan depan, spekulasi kabinet baru Presiden SBY akan diumumkan 1 Oktober memberikan angin segar kepada IHSG, serta sejumlah isu positif dari kinerja emiten domestik, seperti emiten dari grup Bakrie (isu CIC akan membeli obligasi dan waran BUMI, kenaikan laba BTEL, isu convertible bond DEWA dan ENRG), isu positif menjelang liburan panjang perayaan Hari Raya Idul Fitri yang menguntungkan saham yang mendapatkan keuntungan dari perkiraan tingginya konsumsi masyarakat seperti saham dari Grup Astra (ASII), rokok (GGRM, HMSP), konsumer (UNVR,
MAPI, RALS, INDF, MPPA), diikuti penguatan rupiah memberikan sentimen positif kepada saham infrastruktur dan perbankan, menjelang kenaikan tarif tol dan elpiji setelah lebaran, dapat topang kinerja IHSG di pekan ini.
Meski adanya kekhawatiran isu perdagangan AS-China akan memanas setelah AS mengenakan tarif impor ban China, tidak ada jaminan bahwa krisis ekonomi global telah berakhir, imbas penguatan yen Jepang dapat menghambat proses pemulihan ekonomi global, diikuti mahalnya valuasi IHSG (PER 31.1x) membatasi laju kenaikan IHSG pada pekan ini.
Stock Picks:Average last 12 week +72.87%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: BUMI, KLBF, MNCN, UNVR, BRPT, BBRI, INTP, SMCB, INDF, JSMR, INCO, ANTM. (Profit-Taking 17/09).Trading Buy ADRO, BBNI, BNBR, DEWA
Stock Picks:
• ADHI : Hold target Rp 500
• ADRO : Buy target Rp 1,800
Global Outlook
Potensi kenaikan indeks saham global masih terbuka di pekan ini, disupport oleh sejumlah data ekonomi AS yang tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan, meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap mahalnya valuasi saham AS dan isu perdagangan AS-China setelah China menyelidiki produk impor otomotif dan ayam AS, mendorong Presiden AS Obama menyatakan respon China terhadap aksi AS mengenakan tarif impor ban China tidak akan memicu perang dagang AS-China. Data ZEW Economic Sentiment Jerman melonjak ke 59.6 dari perkiraan 57.8, Empire State Manufacturing Index 18.9 dari perkiraan 14.7, PPI naik 1.7%, Retail Sales +2.7% dari perkiraan 1.9%, Business Inventories -1.0%, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism tercatat 52.5, seharusnya meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham Sementara Chairman Fed Bernanke semalam, menyatakan resesi terburuk AS sejak 1930 mungkin telah berakhir, memperingatkan pertumbuhan mungkin tidak cukup kuat untuk menurunkan tingkat pengangguran, diikuti pernyataan
Billionaire Warren Buffett bahwa perusahaannya (Berkshire Hathaway) membeli saham, analis upgrade saham Yahoo Inc, Ebay Inc, Investor Birinyi menyatakan saham AS berada dalam trend bullish, kenaikan harga minyak ($ 70.41) dapat topang indeks global hari ini.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal positif dari pola candle long white marubozu (high reliability reversal) dan masih berada dalam uptrend channel dengan support 2,393, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan untuk breakout 2,425 (high 11/09: Fibonacci retracement 76.4%: 2838-1089). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic dan MACD konstruktif bullish, diatas 5 & 10 MA, support channel di 2,393/2350 (trendline), jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut, dapat terkoreksi ke 2,271 (double bottom). seharusnya dukung potensi bullish continuation. Hitungan EW: IHSG dalam subwave iii/5 dalam wave impulse 3 target 2,465/2500 (projection 161.8).
Resistance: 2483.67/2464.75/2445.82/2432.96. PP 2407.97
Support : 2401.54//2382.61/2370.11/2351.19
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)
Munculnya sejumlah sentimen positif dari emiten Grup Bakrie, berperan mengangkat IHSG untuk ditutup di level tertinggi sejak Juni 2008, disamping kenaikan saham Wall Street hari Senin dan mayoritas indeks saham Asia mengalami kenaikan setelah pernyataan Presiden Obama hari Senin meredam kekhawatiran terhadap isu perang dagang AS-China akibat AS mengenakan tarif impor ban China. Isu China Investment Corporation (CIC) mengincar obligasi dan waran PT Bumi Resources (BUMI) senilai p 19 triliun, diikuti PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL) mencatat laba bersih sebesar 16% di semester 1 209, isu convertible bond PT Darma Henwa, memberikan kontribusi terbesar untuk kenaikan IHSG. IHSG menguat 37.407 poin (+1.57%) ditutup di 2,420.109, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 4.36 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buy Rp 315 miliar kemarin, dibandingkan net sell Rp 2.7 miliar miliar (14/09).
Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia menguat, dipicu oleh kenaikan saham produsen bahan material, mendorong indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific sedikit tidak berubah setelah peringatan 1-tahun kejatuhan Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc yang telah menyebabkan kerugian finansial dunia terbesar sejak awal 2007 meningkat menjadi US$ 1.6 triliun. Indeks MSCI memiliki PER rata-rata 23.6x, dibandingkan 17.4x untuk S&P 500.
IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 31.1 8% +34% 6.50% 2.75% 4.0%
STI 22.00 16% +3.4% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 15.0 10% -0.5% 2.0% 3.00% -3.9%
SET 29.05 4% -6.1% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 33.4 36% +29% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 45.2 -1% -15.0% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 22.5 19% -7.2% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 14.1 3% -16.0% 0.25% -1.4% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
IHSG diperkirakan masih dapat melanjutkan trend kenaikan hari ini, karena masih kuatnya aliran dana masuk ke saham domestik, di tengah optimisme terhadap kuatnya fundamental ekonomi nasional (World Bank menaikkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi 2009 RI menjadi 4.3% dari 3.5%), rendahnya inflasi dan suku bunga acuan BI yang dapat meningkatkan prospek pendapatan dan laba emiten domestik di semester 3 2009 yang akan dirilis bulan depan, spekulasi kabinet baru Presiden SBY akan diumumkan 1 Oktober memberikan angin segar kepada IHSG, serta sejumlah isu positif dari kinerja emiten domestik, seperti emiten dari grup Bakrie (isu CIC akan membeli obligasi dan waran BUMI, kenaikan laba BTEL, isu convertible bond DEWA dan ENRG), isu positif menjelang liburan panjang perayaan Hari Raya Idul Fitri yang menguntungkan saham yang mendapatkan keuntungan dari perkiraan tingginya konsumsi masyarakat seperti saham dari Grup Astra (ASII), rokok (GGRM, HMSP), konsumer (UNVR,
MAPI, RALS, INDF, MPPA), diikuti penguatan rupiah memberikan sentimen positif kepada saham infrastruktur dan perbankan, menjelang kenaikan tarif tol dan elpiji setelah lebaran, dapat topang kinerja IHSG di pekan ini.
Meski adanya kekhawatiran isu perdagangan AS-China akan memanas setelah AS mengenakan tarif impor ban China, tidak ada jaminan bahwa krisis ekonomi global telah berakhir, imbas penguatan yen Jepang dapat menghambat proses pemulihan ekonomi global, diikuti mahalnya valuasi IHSG (PER 31.1x) membatasi laju kenaikan IHSG pada pekan ini.
Stock Picks:Average last 12 week +72.87%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: BUMI, KLBF, MNCN, UNVR, BRPT, BBRI, INTP, SMCB, INDF, JSMR, INCO, ANTM. (Profit-Taking 17/09).Trading Buy ADRO, BBNI, BNBR, DEWA
Stock Picks:
• ADHI : Hold target Rp 500
• ADRO : Buy target Rp 1,800
Global Outlook
Potensi kenaikan indeks saham global masih terbuka di pekan ini, disupport oleh sejumlah data ekonomi AS yang tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan, meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap mahalnya valuasi saham AS dan isu perdagangan AS-China setelah China menyelidiki produk impor otomotif dan ayam AS, mendorong Presiden AS Obama menyatakan respon China terhadap aksi AS mengenakan tarif impor ban China tidak akan memicu perang dagang AS-China. Data ZEW Economic Sentiment Jerman melonjak ke 59.6 dari perkiraan 57.8, Empire State Manufacturing Index 18.9 dari perkiraan 14.7, PPI naik 1.7%, Retail Sales +2.7% dari perkiraan 1.9%, Business Inventories -1.0%, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism tercatat 52.5, seharusnya meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham Sementara Chairman Fed Bernanke semalam, menyatakan resesi terburuk AS sejak 1930 mungkin telah berakhir, memperingatkan pertumbuhan mungkin tidak cukup kuat untuk menurunkan tingkat pengangguran, diikuti pernyataan
Billionaire Warren Buffett bahwa perusahaannya (Berkshire Hathaway) membeli saham, analis upgrade saham Yahoo Inc, Ebay Inc, Investor Birinyi menyatakan saham AS berada dalam trend bullish, kenaikan harga minyak ($ 70.41) dapat topang indeks global hari ini.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal positif dari pola candle long white marubozu (high reliability reversal) dan masih berada dalam uptrend channel dengan support 2,393, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan untuk breakout 2,425 (high 11/09: Fibonacci retracement 76.4%: 2838-1089). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic dan MACD konstruktif bullish, diatas 5 & 10 MA, support channel di 2,393/2350 (trendline), jika ditutup dibawah level tersebut, dapat terkoreksi ke 2,271 (double bottom). seharusnya dukung potensi bullish continuation. Hitungan EW: IHSG dalam subwave iii/5 dalam wave impulse 3 target 2,465/2500 (projection 161.8).
Resistance: 2483.67/2464.75/2445.82/2432.96. PP 2407.97
Support : 2401.54//2382.61/2370.11/2351.19
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)
Momentum kenaikan Indeks Regional Masih Kuat Hingga Pekan Depan
Nikkei Futures Kontrak Desember (SSIZ9)
Indeks Nikkei berhasil naik 0,15% kemarin di sesi perdagangan yang fluktuatif. Saham-saham eksportir yang sebelumnya jatuh berhasil bangkit seiring penguatan dollar terhadap yen. Namun, akan adanya aksi profit taking turut membatasi laju indeks. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup naik 15,56 poin, atau 0,15%, ke posisi 10.217,62.
Nikkei menunjukkan signal positif dari support di 10,130 terlihat kuat dan pola higher low yang dapat membatasi potensi penurunan lebih lanjut. Candle daily menunjukkan three black crows, didukung oleh grafik hourly menunjukkan indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic oversold, MACD bullish. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada dalam wave koreksi 5/B dalam koreksi ABC dalam subwave (4). Resistance di 10290 (Fibo 50.0%)/10336 (Fibo 61.8%). Support 10130 (channel support)/9880 (fibo 131.8). Perkiraan range hari ini 10100-10300. Rekomendasi Sell 10440 target 10150 stp 100p, Hold Buy 10150 target 10440 stop 100p, buy 10,000 target 10400, Sell break 9850 target 9500. Chart SSIZ9 1-Jam
Kospi Futures Kontrak Desember (KSZ9)
Bursa Korsel ditutup menguat 1,13% kemarin, sekaligus membukukan level penutupan tertinggi dalam 14 bulan terakhir, dipicu saham otomotif dan teknologi, seperti LG Electronics dab Hyundai Motor. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup menguat 18,49 poin, atau 1,13%, ke level 1.653,40 poin, merupakan penutupan tertinggi sejak Juli tahun lalu.
Indeks kembali menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle bullish harami dibarengi pola uptrend channel, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan indeks. Kendati masih menunjukkan divergence di volume dan MACD, dengan Indikator ADX menurun, MACD masih bullish, seharusnya mendukung membatasi potensi penurunan. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks di wave 2/A. Resistance di 217.30 (projection FE 61.8)/218.90 (trendline). Support 214.20/212.00. Rekomendasi Buy 214.50 & 210.40 target 216.50 stop 100p, Sell 217.30 & 218.90 target 212.00, Sell break 212.00 target 206.00 stop 60p. Buy 203.00 target 207.50 stop 50p. Chart KSZ9 1-Jam
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak September (HSIU9)
Bursa Hong Kong ditutup turun 0,31% kemarin setelah mengawali perdagangannya di sesi kedua, menyusul adanya badai tropis yang mengganggu aktivitas perdagangan bursa di sesi 1. Aksi ambil untung turut memicu pelemahan indeks, meski indeks Shanghai dan regional bergerak positif. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup turun 65,83 poin, atau 0,31%, ke posisi 20.866,37.
Dalam chart daily, Indeks menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle bearish engulfing (indikasi reversal) meski masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, di tengah kondisi stochastic oversold, indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD bullish & divergence, seharusnya dukung potensi penurunan. Indeks mendapatkan sejumlah resistance 21072/21275. Support di 20680/20470. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan koreksi 2/4. Rekomendasi: Buy 20550 target 21100 stop 100p. Sell 21250 & 21480 target 20,850 stop 100p. Buy 2150 target 20550 stop 100p. Buy 20700 target 21250 stop 100p, Buy 20400 target 20750, sell break 20060 target 19750 stop 100p. Chart HSIU9 1-Jam
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Indeks Nikkei berhasil naik 0,15% kemarin di sesi perdagangan yang fluktuatif. Saham-saham eksportir yang sebelumnya jatuh berhasil bangkit seiring penguatan dollar terhadap yen. Namun, akan adanya aksi profit taking turut membatasi laju indeks. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup naik 15,56 poin, atau 0,15%, ke posisi 10.217,62.
Nikkei menunjukkan signal positif dari support di 10,130 terlihat kuat dan pola higher low yang dapat membatasi potensi penurunan lebih lanjut. Candle daily menunjukkan three black crows, didukung oleh grafik hourly menunjukkan indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic oversold, MACD bullish. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada dalam wave koreksi 5/B dalam koreksi ABC dalam subwave (4). Resistance di 10290 (Fibo 50.0%)/10336 (Fibo 61.8%). Support 10130 (channel support)/9880 (fibo 131.8). Perkiraan range hari ini 10100-10300. Rekomendasi Sell 10440 target 10150 stp 100p, Hold Buy 10150 target 10440 stop 100p, buy 10,000 target 10400, Sell break 9850 target 9500. Chart SSIZ9 1-Jam
Kospi Futures Kontrak Desember (KSZ9)
Bursa Korsel ditutup menguat 1,13% kemarin, sekaligus membukukan level penutupan tertinggi dalam 14 bulan terakhir, dipicu saham otomotif dan teknologi, seperti LG Electronics dab Hyundai Motor. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup menguat 18,49 poin, atau 1,13%, ke level 1.653,40 poin, merupakan penutupan tertinggi sejak Juli tahun lalu.
Indeks kembali menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle bullish harami dibarengi pola uptrend channel, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan indeks. Kendati masih menunjukkan divergence di volume dan MACD, dengan Indikator ADX menurun, MACD masih bullish, seharusnya mendukung membatasi potensi penurunan. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks di wave 2/A. Resistance di 217.30 (projection FE 61.8)/218.90 (trendline). Support 214.20/212.00. Rekomendasi Buy 214.50 & 210.40 target 216.50 stop 100p, Sell 217.30 & 218.90 target 212.00, Sell break 212.00 target 206.00 stop 60p. Buy 203.00 target 207.50 stop 50p. Chart KSZ9 1-Jam
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak September (HSIU9)
Bursa Hong Kong ditutup turun 0,31% kemarin setelah mengawali perdagangannya di sesi kedua, menyusul adanya badai tropis yang mengganggu aktivitas perdagangan bursa di sesi 1. Aksi ambil untung turut memicu pelemahan indeks, meski indeks Shanghai dan regional bergerak positif. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup turun 65,83 poin, atau 0,31%, ke posisi 20.866,37.
Dalam chart daily, Indeks menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle bearish engulfing (indikasi reversal) meski masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, di tengah kondisi stochastic oversold, indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD bullish & divergence, seharusnya dukung potensi penurunan. Indeks mendapatkan sejumlah resistance 21072/21275. Support di 20680/20470. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan koreksi 2/4. Rekomendasi: Buy 20550 target 21100 stop 100p. Sell 21250 & 21480 target 20,850 stop 100p. Buy 2150 target 20550 stop 100p. Buy 20700 target 21250 stop 100p, Buy 20400 target 20750, sell break 20060 target 19750 stop 100p. Chart HSIU9 1-Jam
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Potensi Kenaikan Euro & Pound Masih Berlanjut
EUR-USD
Euro masih menunjukkan pola bullish continuation dalam uptrend channel, kendati menunjukan pola candle advanced block. Indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Support di 1.4600 (down channel)/1.4505. Resistance berada di 1.4750 (middle channel) /1.4920. Euro menunjukkan impulse wave 5/3 untuk target 1.4750/1.4920, selama tidak menembus 1.4445. Buy 1.4450 target 1.4780, Buy 1.4260 target 1.4500 stop 1.4200, sell break 1.4250 target 1.4100 stop 60p. Hold sell 1.4635 & 1.4750 target 1.4550 stop 70p, buy 1.4000 trgt 1.4350. stop 160 poin, sell break 1.44000 tgt 1.4200.
USD-JPY
(+60p) USDJPY menunjukkan pola candle shooting star dan berada dalam pola downtrend channel dengan resistance di 91.65. Penutupan dibawah channel di 91.65 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low di 90.00/89.65 (former low). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan selama bertahan di atas 90.00. Resistance berada di 91.65/91.90, support di 90.20/89.65. Sell 91.90 target 90.50 stop 60p. buy break 92.40 target 93.75 stop 60p. Sell 94.20 stop 60p target 91.50 & sell 92.50 target 91.70 stop 92.00. Buy 90.20 target 91.90 stop 89.50. Buy 89.65 target 91.90.
GBP-USD
(-50p-60p-100) GBP menunjukkan pola bearish continuation dari candle long bearish diikuti signal breakout channel, meski masih berada di atas upper channel di 1.6453, diikuti indikator ADX terkoreksi dan MACD di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas 1.6453. EW menunjukkan GBP berada dalam wave impulse c/A. Buy 1.6400 target 1.6550 stop 1.6340. sell 1.6540 target 1.6400 stop 60p, buy 1.6280 target 1.6550. Sell break 1.6230 target 1.6050 stop 60p. Sell 1.6750 target 1.6550 stop 60p. Sell 1.6650 target 1.6400 stop 1.6700.
AUD-USD
AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka pendek, diikuti pola netrald ari hanging man, diikuti indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan selama di tutup diatas downchannel 0.8600. Resistance di 0.8715/0.8820, support di 0.8600/0.8540. Hold Buy 0.8580 target 0.8710, sell 0.8710 target 0.8540 & sell 0.8820 stop 0.8540, buy 0.8500 target 0.8700. sell break 0.8460 target 0.8250.
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Euro masih menunjukkan pola bullish continuation dalam uptrend channel, kendati menunjukan pola candle advanced block. Indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Support di 1.4600 (down channel)/1.4505. Resistance berada di 1.4750 (middle channel) /1.4920. Euro menunjukkan impulse wave 5/3 untuk target 1.4750/1.4920, selama tidak menembus 1.4445. Buy 1.4450 target 1.4780, Buy 1.4260 target 1.4500 stop 1.4200, sell break 1.4250 target 1.4100 stop 60p. Hold sell 1.4635 & 1.4750 target 1.4550 stop 70p, buy 1.4000 trgt 1.4350. stop 160 poin, sell break 1.44000 tgt 1.4200.
USD-JPY
(+60p) USDJPY menunjukkan pola candle shooting star dan berada dalam pola downtrend channel dengan resistance di 91.65. Penutupan dibawah channel di 91.65 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low di 90.00/89.65 (former low). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan selama bertahan di atas 90.00. Resistance berada di 91.65/91.90, support di 90.20/89.65. Sell 91.90 target 90.50 stop 60p. buy break 92.40 target 93.75 stop 60p. Sell 94.20 stop 60p target 91.50 & sell 92.50 target 91.70 stop 92.00. Buy 90.20 target 91.90 stop 89.50. Buy 89.65 target 91.90.
GBP-USD
(-50p-60p-100) GBP menunjukkan pola bearish continuation dari candle long bearish diikuti signal breakout channel, meski masih berada di atas upper channel di 1.6453, diikuti indikator ADX terkoreksi dan MACD di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas 1.6453. EW menunjukkan GBP berada dalam wave impulse c/A. Buy 1.6400 target 1.6550 stop 1.6340. sell 1.6540 target 1.6400 stop 60p, buy 1.6280 target 1.6550. Sell break 1.6230 target 1.6050 stop 60p. Sell 1.6750 target 1.6550 stop 60p. Sell 1.6650 target 1.6400 stop 1.6700.
AUD-USD
AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka pendek, diikuti pola netrald ari hanging man, diikuti indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan selama di tutup diatas downchannel 0.8600. Resistance di 0.8715/0.8820, support di 0.8600/0.8540. Hold Buy 0.8580 target 0.8710, sell 0.8710 target 0.8540 & sell 0.8820 stop 0.8540, buy 0.8500 target 0.8700. sell break 0.8460 target 0.8250.
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Dow Average May Be Poised for ‘Correction’: Technical Analysis
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is “poised for a correction” if it drops below its 15- year line, according to a technical analyst at Mizuho Securities Co. Ltd. who looks at charts to predict future movements.The Dow average closed at 9,626.80 yesterday after reaching a high for the year on Sept. 10. A move below its 15-year line at 9,324.65 -- as of Sept. 11 -- would indicate an “elevated risk of correction,” Mizuho’s Yutaka Miura wrote in a research report dated Sept. 14.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aK_kzo0v1u8c
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aK_kzo0v1u8c
Oil Poised to Extend Rebound, BarCap Says: Technical Analysis
Crude oil probably is near a bottom between $67 and $68 a barrel and may rebound after retreating to its 100-day moving average, Barclays Capital analysts said.Crude futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange formed a “hammer” yesterday, which occurs when prices recover from a new low, Barclays said. Having completed the downward slope of a triangular pattern started in June, oil is poised for new gains, according to the bank.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aB0cEbY72Ckc
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aB0cEbY72Ckc
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Sep 15 09 06:27 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
At this point, intraday bias in crude oil remains on the downside with 69.81 minor resistance intact. Fall from 75.0 is still expected to extend to 00% projection of 75 to 67.05 from 72.9 at 64.95 next. On the upside, above 69.81 will turn intraday outlook neutral again and bring recovery. Nevertheless, break of 72.90 is needed to indicate resumption of rise from 67.05 Otherwise, risk will remain mildly on the downside.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Question remains on whether such rally has completed at 75.0 already. Crude oil is now at important medium term trend line support. Sustained trading below will be the first alert that such rise has finished. Break of 58.32 will confirm this case and turn outlook bearish for 33.2 low next. On the upside, while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
At this point, intraday bias in crude oil remains on the downside with 69.81 minor resistance intact. Fall from 75.0 is still expected to extend to 00% projection of 75 to 67.05 from 72.9 at 64.95 next. On the upside, above 69.81 will turn intraday outlook neutral again and bring recovery. Nevertheless, break of 72.90 is needed to indicate resumption of rise from 67.05 Otherwise, risk will remain mildly on the downside.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Question remains on whether such rally has completed at 75.0 already. Crude oil is now at important medium term trend line support. Sustained trading below will be the first alert that such rise has finished. Break of 58.32 will confirm this case and turn outlook bearish for 33.2 low next. On the upside, while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Sep 15 09 06:31 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Intraday bias in Gold remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 1013.7 is still in progress. Nevertheless, with 983.2 support intact, further rally is still expected to test 1033.9. Break there will confirm long term up trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. On the downside, break of 983.2 will indicate that a short term top is formed, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. In such case, deeper pull back could be seen to 931.3/974.3 support zone before resuming up trend.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681, which is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend, should have resumed after triangle consolidation from 1007.7 has completed at 931.3. Having said that, current rally from 931.3 should extend beyond 1033.9 high to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. On the downside, break of 931.3 support is needed to be the first signal that Gold has topped out in medium term. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of deep pull back.
Comex Gold (GC)
Intraday bias in Gold remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 1013.7 is still in progress. Nevertheless, with 983.2 support intact, further rally is still expected to test 1033.9. Break there will confirm long term up trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. On the downside, break of 983.2 will indicate that a short term top is formed, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. In such case, deeper pull back could be seen to 931.3/974.3 support zone before resuming up trend.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681, which is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend, should have resumed after triangle consolidation from 1007.7 has completed at 931.3. Having said that, current rally from 931.3 should extend beyond 1033.9 high to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. On the downside, break of 931.3 support is needed to be the first signal that Gold has topped out in medium term. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of deep pull back.
Elliot Wave: S&P Signals for a US$ Recovery, $ Index; Correction Expected, Gold Support at 982-985,
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
S&P signals for a US$ recovery
4 Hour chart trend: Short. Main price points: 10027, 1038.25, and 1050. Looking for: Wave V.
S&P futures came out with a sharp turning point on Friday, just after the prices reached our Fibonacci resistance area around 1050. The top was 1047 before the prices slid through the lower trend-line support and wave IV lows, which signals that a temporary top is in. If that really is the case, the prices should continue lower over the next few days, to approach the 990 support area, while the 1047 top must hold.
$ Index; Correction Expected
4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 76.46 78.00. Looking for: Move higher
The dollar index prices have reached new lows recently, which was probably the wave v) leg, and a final move of a black wave c, which completed the whole wave III) move. A move higher over the next few days should follow. As such, we will be looking for a three wave, zig-zag correction into the higher blue wave IV). In this case, the current 76.46 lows around the lower support line need to hold, while the market approaches the upper trend-line resistance, around the 78.00 zone.
Gold, Support at 982-985
4 Hour Trend: Mixed. Main price points: 982.85, and 1011.66. Looking for: Wave IV)
Gold has reached new highs at the end of the past week as expected, when the prices traded from wave IV) lows up into wave V) that completed an extended blue wave III leg. The top was 1011.66 that need to hold now, while the corrective wave IV is developing. As such, we will be looking for a simple, three wave move down near to the previous wave IV) support zone around the 982-985 area, where another bounce into the highs with a blue wave V shoul follow.
S&P signals for a US$ recovery
4 Hour chart trend: Short. Main price points: 10027, 1038.25, and 1050. Looking for: Wave V.
S&P futures came out with a sharp turning point on Friday, just after the prices reached our Fibonacci resistance area around 1050. The top was 1047 before the prices slid through the lower trend-line support and wave IV lows, which signals that a temporary top is in. If that really is the case, the prices should continue lower over the next few days, to approach the 990 support area, while the 1047 top must hold.
$ Index; Correction Expected
4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 76.46 78.00. Looking for: Move higher
The dollar index prices have reached new lows recently, which was probably the wave v) leg, and a final move of a black wave c, which completed the whole wave III) move. A move higher over the next few days should follow. As such, we will be looking for a three wave, zig-zag correction into the higher blue wave IV). In this case, the current 76.46 lows around the lower support line need to hold, while the market approaches the upper trend-line resistance, around the 78.00 zone.
Gold, Support at 982-985
4 Hour Trend: Mixed. Main price points: 982.85, and 1011.66. Looking for: Wave IV)
Gold has reached new highs at the end of the past week as expected, when the prices traded from wave IV) lows up into wave V) that completed an extended blue wave III leg. The top was 1011.66 that need to hold now, while the corrective wave IV is developing. As such, we will be looking for a simple, three wave move down near to the previous wave IV) support zone around the 982-985 area, where another bounce into the highs with a blue wave V shoul follow.
Dow Jones Recommended Levels
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade |
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9573.75 and 9541.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9514.70, where correction also can be. Then follows 9489.37. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9452.62 Continuation will bring 9410.62 and 9364.20.Today's resistance: - 9646.77(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9672.28, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9683.66, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9717.37. Continuation would bring 9756.56, 9787.40 and 9812.77.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9573.75 and 9541.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9514.70, where correction also can be. Then follows 9489.37. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9452.62 Continuation will bring 9410.62 and 9364.20.Today's resistance: - 9646.77(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9672.28, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9683.66, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9717.37. Continuation would bring 9756.56, 9787.40 and 9812.77.
Forex Weekly Technical Commentary
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
USD/JPY
Chart Levels:
Support 90.00..89.70..88.00..87.10.
Resistance 91.00..92.50..93.55..94.65
This week: ↘ This month: ↘
Almost the lowest weekly close of 2009, and well below the mid-point of the very broad sideways band that has held all year, suggests a series of repeated downside tests for the rest of this month and maybe the rest of this year. A baptism by fire for the new DJP government that has had to wait 50 years to be elected into power. Verbal intervention has started already, the MOF's Tango saying today he is watching currency moves closely. Key support between 87.00 and 1995's 85.00 may not be defended quite as rigorously by new politicians whose focus is more on the individual and less on corporations. The US dollar is not as oversold against the Yen as we had thought and most Yen crosses are looking top-heavy.
EUR/USD
Chart Levels:
Support 1.4500..1.4400..1.4290..1.4177.
Resistance 1.4636..1.4720..1.4815..1.4900.
This week: → This month: ↗
Mocking the consensus view, the Euro has retraced 61.8% of last year's losses. Using a flat-topped Ichimoku 'cloud' as a springboard it has moved above the consolidation area that we have been trapped in for weeks. Best volume so far this year in the futures contracts suggests many are rushing to catch up, reviewing their FX outlook as necessary. One-month at-the-money implied volatility based against the 10.00% level, and should pick up towards 16.00% over the coming month or two. Note that on the ECB's effective exchange rate the Euro is at a record high, yet what we are seeing is generalised US dollar weakness with the best performers so far this year the ZAR, BRL, AUD and NZD.
GBP/USD
Chart Levels:
Support 1.6500..1.6275..1.6100..1.6000.
Resistance 1.6745..1.6800..1.7045..1.7250.
This week: → This month: ↗
Cable continues to consolidate above the Fibonacci 38% retracement of the drop since 2007's high and below the flat top of a massive Ichimoku 'cloud'. A pity it didn't manage a weekly close above 1.6750 as this might have added some much-needed bullish momentum. Cable is not overbought and moving averages have been suggesting a long position since May, the 26-week one starting at last to move higher. Measured targets from current consolidation lie at 1.7000 and then 1.7500. Futures volume remains excellent and possibly, like the Canadian and Eurodollar futures, have been embraced by US speculators. One-month at-the-money implied volatility should hold above 10.65% for quite some time to come.
GBP/JPY
Chart Levels:
Support 149.00..146.70..143.00..139.00.
Resistance 153.25..155.85..156.00..157.50
This week: ↘ This month: ↘
The 'double top' against the 162.50 should lead to a re-test of June's low at 146.70, with a sustained break below here setting off a (probably sharp) drop to a measured target at 130.00. This would of course involve a break below the bottom of the very large Ichimoku 'cloud' (144.65) which should then turn moving averages bearish. One-month at-the-money implied volatility is still trying to base against 16.40%, one standard deviation from the mean since January 1995, and should eventually increase towards 21.00%. Note that so far this month the Yen has gained against all major currencies, a move which we feel will gather momentum over the next six weeks or so, Asian ones the weakest.
Euro May Rise Toward $1.4720 After Rebound
The euro may advance against the dollar toward its December 2008 high of $1.4720 after the European currency rebounded from so-called support around $1.4500, BNP Paribas SA said, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aL2HM57q.7F8
USD/JPY
Chart Levels:
Support 90.00..89.70..88.00..87.10.
Resistance 91.00..92.50..93.55..94.65
This week: ↘ This month: ↘
Almost the lowest weekly close of 2009, and well below the mid-point of the very broad sideways band that has held all year, suggests a series of repeated downside tests for the rest of this month and maybe the rest of this year. A baptism by fire for the new DJP government that has had to wait 50 years to be elected into power. Verbal intervention has started already, the MOF's Tango saying today he is watching currency moves closely. Key support between 87.00 and 1995's 85.00 may not be defended quite as rigorously by new politicians whose focus is more on the individual and less on corporations. The US dollar is not as oversold against the Yen as we had thought and most Yen crosses are looking top-heavy.
EUR/USD
Chart Levels:
Support 1.4500..1.4400..1.4290..1.4177.
Resistance 1.4636..1.4720..1.4815..1.4900.
This week: → This month: ↗
Mocking the consensus view, the Euro has retraced 61.8% of last year's losses. Using a flat-topped Ichimoku 'cloud' as a springboard it has moved above the consolidation area that we have been trapped in for weeks. Best volume so far this year in the futures contracts suggests many are rushing to catch up, reviewing their FX outlook as necessary. One-month at-the-money implied volatility based against the 10.00% level, and should pick up towards 16.00% over the coming month or two. Note that on the ECB's effective exchange rate the Euro is at a record high, yet what we are seeing is generalised US dollar weakness with the best performers so far this year the ZAR, BRL, AUD and NZD.
GBP/USD
Chart Levels:
Support 1.6500..1.6275..1.6100..1.6000.
Resistance 1.6745..1.6800..1.7045..1.7250.
This week: → This month: ↗
Cable continues to consolidate above the Fibonacci 38% retracement of the drop since 2007's high and below the flat top of a massive Ichimoku 'cloud'. A pity it didn't manage a weekly close above 1.6750 as this might have added some much-needed bullish momentum. Cable is not overbought and moving averages have been suggesting a long position since May, the 26-week one starting at last to move higher. Measured targets from current consolidation lie at 1.7000 and then 1.7500. Futures volume remains excellent and possibly, like the Canadian and Eurodollar futures, have been embraced by US speculators. One-month at-the-money implied volatility should hold above 10.65% for quite some time to come.
GBP/JPY
Chart Levels:
Support 149.00..146.70..143.00..139.00.
Resistance 153.25..155.85..156.00..157.50
This week: ↘ This month: ↘
The 'double top' against the 162.50 should lead to a re-test of June's low at 146.70, with a sustained break below here setting off a (probably sharp) drop to a measured target at 130.00. This would of course involve a break below the bottom of the very large Ichimoku 'cloud' (144.65) which should then turn moving averages bearish. One-month at-the-money implied volatility is still trying to base against 16.40%, one standard deviation from the mean since January 1995, and should eventually increase towards 21.00%. Note that so far this month the Yen has gained against all major currencies, a move which we feel will gather momentum over the next six weeks or so, Asian ones the weakest.
Euro May Rise Toward $1.4720 After Rebound
The euro may advance against the dollar toward its December 2008 high of $1.4720 after the European currency rebounded from so-called support around $1.4500, BNP Paribas SA said, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aL2HM57q.7F8
Global Financial Crisis Hasn’t Ended, Fund Manager Survey Says
Most fund managers say the financial crisis has not yet ended, with companies still burdened by large amounts of debt and credit markets still fragile, according to a survey by FTI Consulting Inc. Almost two-thirds of fund managers said the financial crisis is continuing, with U.K., U.S. and Australian investors the most pessimistic, the survey said. West Palm Beach, Florida- based FTI said 153 investors with $2.8 trillion of equity funds under management took part in the research.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOK1SOpOcjIM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOK1SOpOcjIM
Goldman Advises Buying Copper on Outlook for Economic Rebound
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised investors to buy copper in anticipation of a supply shortage as economies rebound.The bank suggested last week that investors buy copper for delivery in December of next year, according to a report dated yesterday. Goldman Sachs continued to recommend purchasing crude oil and maintaining an “overweight” allocation to raw materials.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apTQ10SMIkpU
Copper Rising at Goldman Isn’t Traditional Rebound
Copper, this year’s best commodity investment, may be poised for gains of another 22 percent through 2010 as the global economy recovers and mine output lags behind demand.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOK1SOpOcjIM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apTQ10SMIkpU
Copper Rising at Goldman Isn’t Traditional Rebound
Copper, this year’s best commodity investment, may be poised for gains of another 22 percent through 2010 as the global economy recovers and mine output lags behind demand.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOK1SOpOcjIM
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 15-09
Research CIMB-GK Sec: Underperform BTEL target Rp 110
China Construction Incar Darma Henwa
CHINA Construction Bank disebut-sebut oleh kalangan pelaku pasar siap membeli 5% saham PT Darma Henwa Tbk (DEWA). Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, harga pembelian yang bakal disepakati sekitar Rp 250 per saham. Langkah tersebut sebagai pintu masuk investor dari Tiongkok ke sektor pertambangan di Indonesia. Sebelumnya, Darma Henwa dikabarkan bakal menjadi kontraktor di tambang milik Newmont. Pada perdagangan kemarin, DEWA ditutup terkoreksi Rp 5 (2,4%) ke posisi Rp 200.
Cermati Saham Mitra Adiperkasa
HARGA saham PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPI) dikabarkan bakal diangkat menuju level Rp 500-600. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, sejumlah broker telah mendapat mandat untuk mengakumulasi MAPI dalam jangka pendek. Lebaran dan liburan akhir tahun menjadi momentum kenaikan harga MAPI. Pada perdagangan kemarin, MAPI ditutup melemah Rp 5 (1,1%) ke level Rp 415.
PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL) membukukan pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar 16,7% menjadi Rp72,8 miliar sepanjang semester 1 2009 ketimbang periode sama 2008 senilai Rp62,4 miliar.
Ihsg hari ini dibuka menguat ke level tertinggi 2,408.479 (+25 poin) pada pukul 10.00 WIB, mengikuti kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street semalam. Isu positif dari komentar Presiden Obama bahwa respon China terhadap pengenaan tarif impor ban China tidak akan memicu perang dagang, melihat perubahan di system perbankan akan memulihkan sector di akhir tahun. Roubini melihat resiko ekonomi AS double dip resesi karena perkiraan lemahnya spending dan potensi penurunan harga perumahan komersil. Pasar menanti sejumlah data ekonomi AS hari ini dan testimony Chairman Fed Bernanke diperkirakan positif untuk pasar saham. Indeks Nikkei 225 +11.95 di 10,214.01, Hang Seng ditutup sementara akibat topan, Kospi Korea +10.90 di 1,646.20, Shanghai -1.008 di 3,025.733, DJI +21.39 di 9626.80.
Mata uang rupiah diperdagangkan melemah 35 rupiah di Rp 9,952, karena meningkatnya permintaan untuk dolar menjelang akhir kuartal dan untuk pembayaran hutang swasta, diikuti penguatan dolar terhadap regional dipimpin oleh won Korea Selatan. USD-JPY Y 91.08 melemah 0.2862, USD-KRW +3.6500 di 1225.40, USD-PHP di 48.4170 di 0.0875, AUD-USD melemah 0.0058 di 0.8576, NZD-USD melemah 0.0086 di 0.6988, USD-SGD menguat 0.0032 di 1.4249, USD-PHP menguat 0.0875 di 48.4170, USD-INR menguat 0.0600 di 48.6850, USD-THB menguat 0.0250 di 33.9200,USD-MYR melemah 0.0055 di 3.5028.
BUMI Potensi Menguat, ‘Strong Buy’!
Harga saham PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Selasa (15/8) diprediksikan menguat. Pelaku pasar akan lebih berani melakukan pembelian aman, T plus 3 karena jatuh temponya setelah Lebaran. Strong buy untuk BUMI!
Holcim Raih Proyek Pengadaan Beton Jalan Tol
PT Holcim Indonesia Tbk (SMCB) mendapatkan proyek pengadaan beton jalan tol Kanci-Pejagan. Perseroan akan memasok sebanyak 120 ribu meter kubik konkrir beton pada proyek tersebut.
INDF Perkirakan Bakal Lampaui Target Pertumbuhan
Sementara untuk volume penjualan, INDF diperkirakan masih bisa tumbuh hingga 5% tahun ini.
Bank Dunia memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia 2010 sebesar 5,4% atau naik dibanding prediksi pertumbuhan 2009 yang sebesar 4,3%. Bank Indonesia menilai Indonesia mengalami pemulihan ekonomi lebih dinidibandingkan dengan negara lain. Pasalnya konsumsi domestik masih terjaga tetap kuat di tengah krisis ekonomi berkat belanja kampanye pemilu dan meningkatnya kinerja perdagangan.
Lelang SUN Diperkirakan Beri Yield 7,25-11,35%
Lelang empat seri surat utang negara (SUN) diperkirakan memberi imbal hasil (yield) sekitar 7,25-11,35%. Keempat seri SUN tersebut akan dilelang oleh Departemen Keuangan (Depkeu) pada 15 September 2009, dengan target indikasi sebesar Rp 2 triliun.
BMRI memimpin sindikasi kredit sebesar US$ 490 juta untuk mendanai proyek PT Pupuk Kaltim-5 berkapasitas 2500 MTPD amoniak dan 3500 MTPD urea. Kredit tersebut berjangka waktu maksimal 10 tahun.
ADHI Raih Proyek Stadion Rp495,94 M
Jasa kontraktor PT Adhi Karya Tbk (ADHI) meraih kontrak baru pembangunan stadion utama sepak bola yang terletak di Gedebage, Bandung. Nilai kontrak itu mencapai Rp495,945 miliar.
DOID: Saham Dijual Rp.1.500-Rp.1.800
Pemegang saham DOID menawarkan harga saham perusahaan itu kepada manajer investasi di level Rp1.500-Rp.1.800 per saham. Kisaran itu merupakan indikasi harga dari rencana penjualan saham DOID melalui private placement yang dijadwalkan bulan depan. Jumlah saham DOID yang akan dilepas berkisar 24%-25% dari total saham yang ditempatkan atau disetor penuh
Star Energy Negosiasikan Harga Listrik Wayang
PT Star Energy akan menegosiasikan lagi harga listrik Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Panas Bumi (PLTP) Wayang Windu Unit 3 dengan PT PLN (Persero).
Tarik Ulur Divestasi Newmont
Divestasi saham pertambangan acap diwarnai tarik ulur berbagai kepentingan, sehingga membuat proses divestasi tersebut molor. Selain PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC), nasib divestasi PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) juga mengalami hal serupa.
PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (LSIP), anak usaha Indofood Agri Resources Limited, menargetkan produksi kelapa sawit sekitar 380 ribu ton hingga akhir tahun.
Ancora Terima Sanksi
PT Ancora Indonesia Resources Tbk (OKAS) bersedia membayar sanksi denda sebesar Rp 200 juta yang dijatuhkan Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam-LK).
Proyek BBM Adaro-Shell Mengancam Bisnis AKRA
Pendapatan AKR Corporindo akan terselamatkan jika perusahaan tersebut berhasil memenangkan tender penyaluran bahan bakar bersubsidi pemerintah.
Bank Mandiri Segera Miliki Saham Garuda
Bank Mandiri menyetujui konversi piutangnya di PT Garuda Indonesia menjadi kepemilikan saham di maskapai penerbangan terbesar di Tanah Air itu.
Stakeholder Beli Saham BYAN Lagi
Salah satu pemegang saham Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) kembali melakukan pembelian saham sebanyak 396.500 lembar saham dengan kisaran harga 0 per saham.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada perdagangan Selasa (15/9) masih berpotensi menguat. Saham perbankan dan infrastruktur masih bisa menjadi andalan seperti BBRI, BBNI, TLKM dan JSMR. Direktur Riset dan Pemasaran Sucorinvest Central Gani Adrian Rusmana mengatakan, potensi penguatan IHSG pekan ini masih terbuka, meskipun transaksi menipis menjelang libur lebaran. Banyaknya dana yang masuk membuka peluang penguatan bursa.
BLTA akan mencari pinjaman perbankan senilai US$344 juta tahun depan guna membeli 13 kapal hingga 2011. Selain itu, BLTA meraih pinjaman senilai Rp650-Rp750 miliar guna refinancing, sehingga hutang yang seharusnya jatuh tempo tahun ini diperpanjang menjadi 2013-2014.
TRAM mengincar proyek pengadaan dua unit kapal pengangkut bahan bakar dari pertamina. Nilai proyek berjangka waktu lima tahun itu ditaksir mencapai Rp 500 miliar. Saat ini TRAM tengah mengikuti tender yang diadakan Pertamina.
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Investor-daily, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id
China Construction Incar Darma Henwa
CHINA Construction Bank disebut-sebut oleh kalangan pelaku pasar siap membeli 5% saham PT Darma Henwa Tbk (DEWA). Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, harga pembelian yang bakal disepakati sekitar Rp 250 per saham. Langkah tersebut sebagai pintu masuk investor dari Tiongkok ke sektor pertambangan di Indonesia. Sebelumnya, Darma Henwa dikabarkan bakal menjadi kontraktor di tambang milik Newmont. Pada perdagangan kemarin, DEWA ditutup terkoreksi Rp 5 (2,4%) ke posisi Rp 200.
Cermati Saham Mitra Adiperkasa
HARGA saham PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPI) dikabarkan bakal diangkat menuju level Rp 500-600. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, sejumlah broker telah mendapat mandat untuk mengakumulasi MAPI dalam jangka pendek. Lebaran dan liburan akhir tahun menjadi momentum kenaikan harga MAPI. Pada perdagangan kemarin, MAPI ditutup melemah Rp 5 (1,1%) ke level Rp 415.
PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL) membukukan pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar 16,7% menjadi Rp72,8 miliar sepanjang semester 1 2009 ketimbang periode sama 2008 senilai Rp62,4 miliar.
Ihsg hari ini dibuka menguat ke level tertinggi 2,408.479 (+25 poin) pada pukul 10.00 WIB, mengikuti kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street semalam. Isu positif dari komentar Presiden Obama bahwa respon China terhadap pengenaan tarif impor ban China tidak akan memicu perang dagang, melihat perubahan di system perbankan akan memulihkan sector di akhir tahun. Roubini melihat resiko ekonomi AS double dip resesi karena perkiraan lemahnya spending dan potensi penurunan harga perumahan komersil. Pasar menanti sejumlah data ekonomi AS hari ini dan testimony Chairman Fed Bernanke diperkirakan positif untuk pasar saham. Indeks Nikkei 225 +11.95 di 10,214.01, Hang Seng ditutup sementara akibat topan, Kospi Korea +10.90 di 1,646.20, Shanghai -1.008 di 3,025.733, DJI +21.39 di 9626.80.
Mata uang rupiah diperdagangkan melemah 35 rupiah di Rp 9,952, karena meningkatnya permintaan untuk dolar menjelang akhir kuartal dan untuk pembayaran hutang swasta, diikuti penguatan dolar terhadap regional dipimpin oleh won Korea Selatan. USD-JPY Y 91.08 melemah 0.2862, USD-KRW +3.6500 di 1225.40, USD-PHP di 48.4170 di 0.0875, AUD-USD melemah 0.0058 di 0.8576, NZD-USD melemah 0.0086 di 0.6988, USD-SGD menguat 0.0032 di 1.4249, USD-PHP menguat 0.0875 di 48.4170, USD-INR menguat 0.0600 di 48.6850, USD-THB menguat 0.0250 di 33.9200,USD-MYR melemah 0.0055 di 3.5028.
BUMI Potensi Menguat, ‘Strong Buy’!
Harga saham PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Selasa (15/8) diprediksikan menguat. Pelaku pasar akan lebih berani melakukan pembelian aman, T plus 3 karena jatuh temponya setelah Lebaran. Strong buy untuk BUMI!
Holcim Raih Proyek Pengadaan Beton Jalan Tol
PT Holcim Indonesia Tbk (SMCB) mendapatkan proyek pengadaan beton jalan tol Kanci-Pejagan. Perseroan akan memasok sebanyak 120 ribu meter kubik konkrir beton pada proyek tersebut.
INDF Perkirakan Bakal Lampaui Target Pertumbuhan
Sementara untuk volume penjualan, INDF diperkirakan masih bisa tumbuh hingga 5% tahun ini.
Bank Dunia memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia 2010 sebesar 5,4% atau naik dibanding prediksi pertumbuhan 2009 yang sebesar 4,3%. Bank Indonesia menilai Indonesia mengalami pemulihan ekonomi lebih dinidibandingkan dengan negara lain. Pasalnya konsumsi domestik masih terjaga tetap kuat di tengah krisis ekonomi berkat belanja kampanye pemilu dan meningkatnya kinerja perdagangan.
Lelang SUN Diperkirakan Beri Yield 7,25-11,35%
Lelang empat seri surat utang negara (SUN) diperkirakan memberi imbal hasil (yield) sekitar 7,25-11,35%. Keempat seri SUN tersebut akan dilelang oleh Departemen Keuangan (Depkeu) pada 15 September 2009, dengan target indikasi sebesar Rp 2 triliun.
BMRI memimpin sindikasi kredit sebesar US$ 490 juta untuk mendanai proyek PT Pupuk Kaltim-5 berkapasitas 2500 MTPD amoniak dan 3500 MTPD urea. Kredit tersebut berjangka waktu maksimal 10 tahun.
ADHI Raih Proyek Stadion Rp495,94 M
Jasa kontraktor PT Adhi Karya Tbk (ADHI) meraih kontrak baru pembangunan stadion utama sepak bola yang terletak di Gedebage, Bandung. Nilai kontrak itu mencapai Rp495,945 miliar.
DOID: Saham Dijual Rp.1.500-Rp.1.800
Pemegang saham DOID menawarkan harga saham perusahaan itu kepada manajer investasi di level Rp1.500-Rp.1.800 per saham. Kisaran itu merupakan indikasi harga dari rencana penjualan saham DOID melalui private placement yang dijadwalkan bulan depan. Jumlah saham DOID yang akan dilepas berkisar 24%-25% dari total saham yang ditempatkan atau disetor penuh
Star Energy Negosiasikan Harga Listrik Wayang
PT Star Energy akan menegosiasikan lagi harga listrik Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Panas Bumi (PLTP) Wayang Windu Unit 3 dengan PT PLN (Persero).
Tarik Ulur Divestasi Newmont
Divestasi saham pertambangan acap diwarnai tarik ulur berbagai kepentingan, sehingga membuat proses divestasi tersebut molor. Selain PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC), nasib divestasi PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) juga mengalami hal serupa.
PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (LSIP), anak usaha Indofood Agri Resources Limited, menargetkan produksi kelapa sawit sekitar 380 ribu ton hingga akhir tahun.
Ancora Terima Sanksi
PT Ancora Indonesia Resources Tbk (OKAS) bersedia membayar sanksi denda sebesar Rp 200 juta yang dijatuhkan Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam-LK).
Proyek BBM Adaro-Shell Mengancam Bisnis AKRA
Pendapatan AKR Corporindo akan terselamatkan jika perusahaan tersebut berhasil memenangkan tender penyaluran bahan bakar bersubsidi pemerintah.
Bank Mandiri Segera Miliki Saham Garuda
Bank Mandiri menyetujui konversi piutangnya di PT Garuda Indonesia menjadi kepemilikan saham di maskapai penerbangan terbesar di Tanah Air itu.
Stakeholder Beli Saham BYAN Lagi
Salah satu pemegang saham Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) kembali melakukan pembelian saham sebanyak 396.500 lembar saham dengan kisaran harga 0 per saham.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada perdagangan Selasa (15/9) masih berpotensi menguat. Saham perbankan dan infrastruktur masih bisa menjadi andalan seperti BBRI, BBNI, TLKM dan JSMR. Direktur Riset dan Pemasaran Sucorinvest Central Gani Adrian Rusmana mengatakan, potensi penguatan IHSG pekan ini masih terbuka, meskipun transaksi menipis menjelang libur lebaran. Banyaknya dana yang masuk membuka peluang penguatan bursa.
BLTA akan mencari pinjaman perbankan senilai US$344 juta tahun depan guna membeli 13 kapal hingga 2011. Selain itu, BLTA meraih pinjaman senilai Rp650-Rp750 miliar guna refinancing, sehingga hutang yang seharusnya jatuh tempo tahun ini diperpanjang menjadi 2013-2014.
TRAM mengincar proyek pengadaan dua unit kapal pengangkut bahan bakar dari pertamina. Nilai proyek berjangka waktu lima tahun itu ditaksir mencapai Rp 500 miliar. Saat ini TRAM tengah mengikuti tender yang diadakan Pertamina.
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Investor-daily, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id
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