Can we predict the next world crisis?

By Andrew Marshall, Asia Political Risk Correspondent - Analysis

A year after the implosion of Lehman Brothers sent world markets into turmoil, the question of where the next global shock will come from -- and whether it can be predicted and prepared for -- has never been so urgent.What makes the issue particularly difficult is that many of the events catastrophic enough to cause a major crisis -- known as "fat tail risks" or as "Black Swans" by trader and author Nassim Nicholas Taleb -- come from outside the realm of finance.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE58G0LC20090917