IHSG : Capital Inflow & Technical Breakout Dukung Potensi Kenaikan

ISH masih mendapatkan keuntungan dari capital inflow yang menyebabkan pasar aset lokal menguat disertai penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (Rp 11,833 pada hari Jumat), menjelang pemilu 9 April mendatang dan penurunan suku bunga BI 25bsp pada awal bulan April menjadi 7.50%, menyebabkan sejumlah saham yang memiliki hutang dalam bentuk USD mengalami penguatan, disamping penguatan harga komoditi (minyak $ 51.90, emas $ 956) serta positifnya pasar saham regional di tengah meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap krisis finansial global (JP Morgan, Citigroup, BOA, Standard Chartered dan Barclays menunjukkan laporan keuangan yang positif)yang menyebabkan kenaikan Wall Street pada pekan lalu (+2.5%). Presiden Obama akan merilis detail program baru untuk mengatasi lredit bermasalah di bank-bank AS, dimana dapat memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG dan regional pada hari Senin ini.

Secara teknikal IHSG seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut setelah, trendline di 1,358 telah ditembus dan closing diatas tersebut. Kondisi MACD telah berada di atas teritorial positif, stochastic bullish, pola rising wedge resistance line juga telah ditembus di 1,356. Kendati laju kenaikan akan tertahan oleh pola candle Three White Soldier, volume yang divergence dengan harga dalam 2 sesi terakhir, seharusnya menahan laju kenaikan IHSG diatas 1,410 (100-day MA). Perkiraan range pekan ini (1,310/1,410).

Collect saham BUMI (bullish harami) 720/750 target 850, ASII (bearish harami) 12,500/13,000/13,450 target 15,500/15,800 (breakaway gap), TLKM (white marobuzu) 6,800/6,900 target 7450 (double top), BBRI (evening star, stochastic overbought) 4,100/4,200 target 5100, ANTM (rounding bottom; stochastic crossing up from oversold)1100/1070 target 1300.
IHSG:
R4 1413.35
R3 1390.19
R2 1374.18
R1 1362.60
PP 1355.45
S1 1351.02
S1 1346.59
S2 1339.44
S3 1320.71
S4 1297.55

Asian Stocks Post Biggest Weekly Gain Since 2007 on Fed Plans

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 6.4 percent to 79.53 this week, adding to last week’s 3.9 percent advance. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 5 percent in a holiday-shortened week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.5 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index jumped 4 percent. Standard Chartered Plc, the U.K.’s second-largest bank by market value, gained 11 percent in Hong Kong after saying it does not need to raise capital. China Huiyuan Juice Group Ltd. plunged 58 percent in Hong Kong after Chinese regulators blocked Coca-Cola Co.’s $2.3 billion takeover bid. Casio Computer Co., the maker of G-Shock watches and Exilim cameras, tumbled 17 percent in Tokyo as it forecast its first loss in seven years.
Trend Bullish short-term, neutral med-term, bearish long term. Sell on rally above 7,970/8,050 target 7,350.
R4 7973.33
R3 7933.33
R2 7905.00
R1 7885.00
PP 7873.33
S1 7865.00
S2 7833.33
S3 7793.33
S4 7773.33




















(Dow Jones)--China Mobile extended losses on a worsening earnings outlook while Chinese financial stocks tracked declines in their U.S. counterparts overnight, pushing Hong Kong stocks lower Friday. Traders said the Hang Seng Index may fall further in the near term, possibly toward 11,000 points, on concerns about deteriorating economic and corporate fundamentals. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index fell 297.41 points, or 2.3%, to 12,833.51, after hitting an intraday low of 12,797.10. Turnover totaled HK$43.89 billion, down from HK$48.59 billion Thursday. 'We think it is about time to trim shareholdings. We expect selling pressure will increase,' said ICEA Securities strategist Ernie Hon. Alex Wong of Ample Financial Group said hopes of more favorable government policies from Beijing have waned, and the near-term retreat of Chinese stocks will be a major force pulling back the Hang Seng Index. China Mobile fell 5.4% to HK$63.10, after a decline of 2.1% Thursday. It said Thursday its 2008 net profit rose to CNY112.80 billion from CNY87.10 billion in 2007, but profit growth slowed toward the end of the year amid intense competition and the weakening economy. Marvin Lo, an analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research, said he expects China Mobile's net profit growth to slow to 8.4% this year, from 29.6% last year, on a drop in subscriber growth and higher capital expenditure related to third-generation mobile services. 'A slower economy, greater competition and the inflow of new customers from rural areas are likely to put downward pressure on net subscriber additions,' Lo said. Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded China Mobile to neutral from buy and cut the target price on the stock by 15% to HK$73.00. It said China Mobile's earnings growth is decelerating, in part because depreciation expenses will rise as the company spends more to expand its network. Chinese financial stocks tumbled, tracking a 16% drop in Citigroup's shares overnight, as the U.S. banking giant prepared to issue preferred shares and sought approval for a reverse stock split, traders said.

R4 13920.17
R3 13519.17
R2 13209.00
R1 13008.50
PP 12917.67
S1 12808.00
S2 12607.50
S3 12316.17
S4 12115.67

Trading the Stocks Bear Market Wave 4 Rally

SCREW YOU MADOFF - Forget 12% a YEAR … How much is 30% per MONTH worth to you? - Casting aside 46% in open profits on our primary core positions with assurance contingency securing of a minimum 2009 return on the S&P 500 of 25%, what if we told you that on top of this, our Level-Three ancillary trading operations just booked another 30% return in the 9-February 13-March timeframe? Sounds too good to be true doesn't it.

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Gold Buying Opportunity Of A Lifetime

Opportunity and crisis are uneasy handmaidens in times of danger; and, while crises may increase, opportunities are always rare. The world is in the grip of an unprecedented crisis. Unlimited credit has now turned into its deadly nemesis, unlimited defaulting debt; and whereas only some of us were its beneficiaries, all of us will be its victims—all of us, except the very few.

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Morgan Stanley - Global Are Still Sinking and Synching

Salami economics? Economists are often accused of using ‘salami tactics’ in revising their forecasts: adjust them frequently and in wafer-thin slices. Well, it’s different this time. While forecasts of economic growth around the globe have in fact been cut frequently over the last 3-6 months, the changes have been anything but wafer-thin. The Morgan Stanley economics team is no exception – during 4Q08 and 1Q09 we have been forced to cut our growth forecasts several times, and in big chunks. We thus remain more bearish than the consensus, seeing a record-deep recession and only tepid recovery in 2010.

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