The Physics of bouncing Dead Cats: Will DJIA pierce 6547 this time?

March 14, 2009 Professor Nouriel Roubini wrote a piece: Reflections on the latest dead cat bounce or bear market sucker's rally. Well he could be right, certainly the rally looked busted on Friday and grim on Monday,. plus Tom Dryden pointed out yesterday that those bank profits were thanks to a scam; someone called it a "fraud bounce" http://seekingalpha.com/article/128390-exclusive-big-banks-recent-profitab (but aren't bank profits always thanks to some sort of scam).

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Do Bonds Beat Stocks Over the Long Run?

Investors, we are told, demand a risk premium for investing in stocks rather than bonds. Without that extra return, why invest in risky stocks if you can get guaranteed returns in bonds? This week we look at a brilliantly done paper examining whether or not investors have gotten better returns from stocks over the really long run and not just the last ten years, when stocks have wandered in the wilderness. This will not sit well with the buy and hope crowd, but the data is what the data is. Then we look at how bulls are spinning bad news into good and, if we have time, look at how you should analyze GDP numbers. Are we really down 6%? (Short answer: no.) It should make for a very interesting letter.

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Geithner's Plan Can Succeed in Stabilising Financial System

I am changing my tune. Geithner's plan can succeed. Before anyone collapses on the floor or starts screaming that I have lost my mind, it's important to define what success means and what the plan is.
What Success Is Not
1. Getting banks to lend.
2. Having a fair bidding process.
3. Arriving at a fair market value of bank assets.

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IHSG Terpukul Faktor Sentimen & Teknikal Overbought

IHSG masih berpotensi melemah pada pekan ini, berkat investor melakukan profit taking (indeks +101 poin pekan lalu) dan saham Wall Street (hold sell DJIA area 7700/8k tgt 7k/6.7k) terkoreksi untuk hari ke-2 hari Senin (industri otomotif terancam bangkrut & perkiraan krisis sektor AS masih berlanjut). Pelemahan rupiah ke 10,700 per dolar (penutupan hari Senin di 11,565) dan terkoreksinya harga komoditi global, ikut memberikan sentimen negatif kepada saham unggulan & lapis kedua. Kendati sejumlah emiten melaporkan laba tahunan/aksi korporat yang solid (BMRI, BBCA, BBNI, INDY, ANTM), gagal menahan kejatuhan indeks.

Investor diperkirakan menahan diri untuk berspekulasi menjelang data inflasi RI Maret (1 April, prediksi di kisaran 0.02%) dan BI Rate (3 April, prediksi tetap 7.75%), sementara data ekspor Indonesia anjlok 42% di Februari, BI turunkan prediksi pertumbuhan menjadi 3-4%. Sementara di luar negeri, fokus kepada pertemuan bank sentral Eropa & Inggris, G20 di London (2 April), data tenaga kerja AS (Jumat, pengangguran diperkirakan ke level 8.5%, tertinggi sejak 1983).

IHSG diperkirakan dalam range 1350-1470 (maximum critical 1,504) pada pekan ini. Technical overbought & double top formation, potensi koreksi ke 1358 (50-day MA). Harga minyak $48.93, emas $920, nikel $9560, timah $10250, DJ Coal -9% 150.56.

Saran: stay away market & profit taking (BUMI,ASII,TLKM,BBRI,BMRI,PGAS,PTBA,ANTM,INCO,AALI), switch/akumulasi CTRA,INTP,UNVR,BISI,BBNI,PTR0,INDY,ELTY. Buy back BC Kamis-Jumat.
Disclaimer.

Kondisi Teknikal Picu Profit Taking Di Nikkei & Hang Seng

Saham Jepang mengalami penurunan terbesar dalam 2 bulan terakhir berkat spekulasi resesi ekonomi akan memicu lebih banyak kebangkrutan & penjualan mobil akan terkontraksi. Saham Mitsui Fudosan, Takato Egi dan Mizuho Financial Group melemah setelah Goldman Sachs menyarankan penjualan. Indeks Nikkei 225 anjlok 350.89, atau 4.5% di 8,236.08 pada hari Senin. Topix melemah 34.99 di 789.54. Nikkei melemah 7.1% di Q1 2009, meski menguat 8.8% di bulan ini. Kekhawatiran investor terhadap sikap pemerintah kepada GM dan Chrysler yang berpotensi perusahaan mengalami kebangkrutan dan Treasury Geithner mengatakan bank besar di AS mungkin akan membutuhkan bantuan pemerintah yang lebih besar, merupakan berita negatif diikuti kondisi teknikal overbought telah picu aksi profit taking. Hold sell 8190 & 8565 target 7900/7500 stop diatas 8750.

Aksi profit taking di saham bank China setelah Construction Bank China merilis lapkeu yg lebih rendah dari perkiraan, mendorong indeks Hang Seng melemah tajam. HSI anjlok 663.17 atau 4.7% di 13,456.63. Turnover tercatat HK$ 51.53 milyar dari HK$ 58.50 pada hari Jumat. Spekulasi krisis finansial AS belum berakhir berkat memburuknya kondisi keuangan Bank of America & JP Morgan di bulan ini, komentar Presiden Obama mengenai industri otomotif AS & Treasury Geithner yang telah picu kekhawatiran di sektor finansial AS belum berakhir, berperan tekan HSI pada pekan ini sebelum laporan tenaga kerja AS pada hari jumat. Secara teknikal berada dalam kondisi overbought, hold sell 13490 & 14035 target 12900/12500 (profit +295 hari Kamis).