(Bloomberg) -- Chinese stock index forecasts were raised for exchanges in the mainland and Hong Kong as stimulus measures revive the economy, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.China’s CSI 300 Index will rise to 2,600 by year-end, up from an earlier forecast of 1,980, Goldman Sachs said in a note today. The gauge fell 1.1 percent to 2,544.86 at 10:45 a.m. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index prediction was raised to 10,300 from 8,900 and the shares were upgraded to “overweight.” The measure fell 2.4 percent to 8,770.97. Goldman Sachs last week increased its estimate for China’s economic growth in 2009 to 8.3 percent from 6 percent. The Hang Seng China index, a measure of China companies traded in Hong Kong, has risen 14 percent this year, compared to a 4 percent decline in the MSCI World Index. The CSI 300, which tracks stocks traded on the two mainland exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has gained 40 percent.
China unveiled a 4-trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package in November and gave out subsidies to spur purchases of household appliances and vehicles. The central bank cut interest rates five times from September to December.
China’s Economy
The world’s third-largest economy should be able to “continue to grow relatively fast,” China’s central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said April 25. Vice Premier Wang Qishan said measures undertaken by the Chinese government to boost the economy have shown results, Sing Tao Daily reported today. The government has a target of 8 percent growth in gross domestic product for 2009.
A resurgent China should assist the recovery of linked economies such as Hong Kong and South Korea, the report said. Corporate earnings are likely to stabilize and improve into 2010, the strategists said.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. April 15 ended its recommendation to be “long” on China’s A shares as the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was nearing the 2,600 target set when the bank initiated the strategy in December. The shares had gained because of the combination of “aggressive” government stimulus measures and “sequential improvement” in economic data, Goldman Sachs analysts including Jim O’Neill said.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Daily Technical Analysis Forex/Gold/DJIA
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus the Dollar halted further inclines last Friday near the first resistance level at 1.3315 before reversing to the downside in correctional movements for the last incline. The support level at 1.3110 and 1.3060 (61.8% correction) need to be monitored closely where a breach tot eh downside will open the way towards 1.2810. Our outlook on the short term remains to the downside as far as 1.3360 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2770 and the key resistance at 1.3360.The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets as 1.2120.
Support: 1.3110, 1.3090, 1.3045, 1.3000, 1.2955
Resistance: 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3360, 1.3405, 1.3450
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.3110 with targets at 1.3000 and stop loss with four-hour closing above 1.3190
GBP
The Cable versus the Dollar continued to decline as seen in the above image as a key support at 1.4590 gained strength which may keep the short term and intraday trends to the downside where a breach of this level will lead the pair towards 1.4480 and 1.4400. Completing the targets will make it easier for the pair to breach 1.4480. The next targets are at 1.4340 and 1.4110 as far as 1.4825 remains intact on the short term.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4240 and the key resistance at 1.5280.The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440.
Support: 1.4590, 1.4530, 1.4480, 1.4400, 1.4340
Resistance: 1.4640, 1.4705, 1.4745, 1.4790, 1.4845
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.4590 with targets at 1.4480 and 1.4400 and stop loss with four-hour closing above 1.4705
JPY
The USD/JPY pair declined gradually within a downside channel as it nears our suggest targets at the key support for the channel at 96.10. Breaching the last downside correction level for the upside wave from 96.10 to 101.45 will revive the potential for further declines to take the pair to 93.75 yet we still may witness upside movements to 97.95 as it is affected by the key support for the channel in an attempt to gather bearish momentum. The decline remains as far as 97.95 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 94.70 and the key resistance at 100.20.The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60.
Support: 96.10, 95.60, 95.25, 94.85, 93.95
Resistance: 97.40, 97.95, 98.35, 99.40, 99.70
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 96.10 with targets at 97.40 and stop loss with four-hour closing below 95.25
CHF
The Dollar versus the Swissy declined in an attempt to breach the key support for the ascending channel at 1.1420 yet the key support at 1.1350 was able to halt further declines to result in a rebound to the upside to maintain levels once again above the key support for the above mentioned channel. We expect an incline on the intraday basis after building a solid base above 1.1420 to reach the resistance at 1.1585 where a breach of this level will take the pair to the key resistance for the channel at 1.1775. This incline holds as far as 1.1350 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1165 and the key resistance at 1.1900.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.1350, 1.1305, 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1465, 1.1535, 1.1585, 1.1645, 1.1725
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.1420 with targets at 1.1585 and stop loss with four-hour closing below 1.1350
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Euro: Euro retraced after moving to a high of 1.3293 . Holding above 1.3150 would maintain the bullish view for euro. The charts show some more room to correct but 1.3150 (100 day EMA on 4 hrly) should ideally hold for a move back to 1.3250. (Eur/Usd:1.3170). Bullish.
Pound: The pair went till the high of 1.4770 (bottom of the rising trendline) and corrected 170 pips since then, the strategy for pound stays slightly neutral until it recovers its losses breaking 1.47 again by today or tomorrow. Stay neutral. Gbp/Usd: 1.4590). Neutral.
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair is clearly in the downtrend again after breaking the trendline support at 98.32 and also after meeting weekly resistance at 101.70. The bias of the pair is clearly bearish i.e usd would be weak till 99.00 (rising trendline) breaks and holds again. Bearish (Usd/Jpy: 96.54).
Australian Dollar: Aussie is clearly staying below the trendline support and holding below it . The weekly stochastic is indicating selling opportunities at every rise. Stay short on the pair targeting 0.6940 as our first target. Bearish (Aud/Usd: 0.7114).
Gold: Gold has moved with excellent momentum but highly overbought at the charts . It is likely to correct till 895 dollars after a push higher again. Medium term slightly bullish. Bullish (Gold: $915.00).
Dollar index :The charts indicate a break of upward trendline again . Dollar index is showing bearish signals in medium term (DI-85.30). Bearish.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3144 and 1.3092(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3061, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3050. Break of the latter would result in 1.3016. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.2982. Continuation will give 1.2957. Today's resistance: - 1.3210 (main). Break would give 1.3234, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3262. Break of the latter would result in 1.3297. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3316. Continuation will give 1.3340.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 96.30(main). Break would bring 96.01, where correction is possible. Then 95.86, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 95.64. If a strong impulse, we would see 95.40. Continuation would give 95.18.
Today's resistance: - 97.26 and 97.43(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 97.87, where also a correction may be. Then 98.12. If a strong impulse, we would see 98.44. Continuation will give 98.57.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8021.23 and 7987.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7959.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 7922.80. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7900.20. Continuation will bring 7871.40. Today's resistance: - 8123.46(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8150.62, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8173.13, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8195.62. Continuation would bring 8246.30 and 8280.00.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Closing above the thinnest point of the Ichimoku 'cloud' and the 9-day moving average (struggling with the 26-day one), with a 'bullish engulfing' candle on the weekly candle. Momentum has yet to turn bullish but should do when we break above the top of the large 'flag'.Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.3145; stop below 1.3000. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3305 for 1.3400 short term and 1.3600 further out.Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.3135 " 1.3255
1.3113 1.3302*
1.309 1.3395*
1.3000* 1.3515
1.295 1.3585
GBPUSD
Comment: Consolidating above the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud', closing above the 26-day moving average, in what can be seen as a 'bullish engulfing' candle. Bullish momentum might increase if we hold above 1.4600 today though really a weekly close above 1.5000 is essential for a decent rally to really get going.Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4555; stop below 1.4380. Short term target 1.4700, eventually 1.5000.
Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.4550 " 1.4675
1.45 1.4708
1.444 1.478
1.4397* 1.4855
1.435 1.496
USDJPY
Comment: Re-testing Friday's low, the 61% Fibonacci retracement and the 9 and 26-day moving averages have crossed to a sell. We have adjusted our view and now see April's high at 101.45 as an interim top so that prices are likely to hold below here for another couple of months or so. The next step should be a bout of generalised US dollar weakness so that dollar/Yen drops towards 93.50.Strategy: Attempt shorts at 96.65, adding to 98.00; stop well above 98.50. Add to shorts on a break below 96.50 for 95.75 short term, probably 93.50 further out. Direction of Trade: →
Support Resistance
96.50* " 97
96.35 97.25
95.95 97.44
95.65* 98.15
95.35 98.50*
EURO
The Euro versus the Dollar halted further inclines last Friday near the first resistance level at 1.3315 before reversing to the downside in correctional movements for the last incline. The support level at 1.3110 and 1.3060 (61.8% correction) need to be monitored closely where a breach tot eh downside will open the way towards 1.2810. Our outlook on the short term remains to the downside as far as 1.3360 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2770 and the key resistance at 1.3360.The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets as 1.2120.
Support: 1.3110, 1.3090, 1.3045, 1.3000, 1.2955
Resistance: 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3360, 1.3405, 1.3450
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.3110 with targets at 1.3000 and stop loss with four-hour closing above 1.3190
GBP
The Cable versus the Dollar continued to decline as seen in the above image as a key support at 1.4590 gained strength which may keep the short term and intraday trends to the downside where a breach of this level will lead the pair towards 1.4480 and 1.4400. Completing the targets will make it easier for the pair to breach 1.4480. The next targets are at 1.4340 and 1.4110 as far as 1.4825 remains intact on the short term.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4240 and the key resistance at 1.5280.The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440.
Support: 1.4590, 1.4530, 1.4480, 1.4400, 1.4340
Resistance: 1.4640, 1.4705, 1.4745, 1.4790, 1.4845
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.4590 with targets at 1.4480 and 1.4400 and stop loss with four-hour closing above 1.4705
JPY
The USD/JPY pair declined gradually within a downside channel as it nears our suggest targets at the key support for the channel at 96.10. Breaching the last downside correction level for the upside wave from 96.10 to 101.45 will revive the potential for further declines to take the pair to 93.75 yet we still may witness upside movements to 97.95 as it is affected by the key support for the channel in an attempt to gather bearish momentum. The decline remains as far as 97.95 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 94.70 and the key resistance at 100.20.The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60.
Support: 96.10, 95.60, 95.25, 94.85, 93.95
Resistance: 97.40, 97.95, 98.35, 99.40, 99.70
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 96.10 with targets at 97.40 and stop loss with four-hour closing below 95.25
CHF
The Dollar versus the Swissy declined in an attempt to breach the key support for the ascending channel at 1.1420 yet the key support at 1.1350 was able to halt further declines to result in a rebound to the upside to maintain levels once again above the key support for the above mentioned channel. We expect an incline on the intraday basis after building a solid base above 1.1420 to reach the resistance at 1.1585 where a breach of this level will take the pair to the key resistance for the channel at 1.1775. This incline holds as far as 1.1350 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1165 and the key resistance at 1.1900.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.1350, 1.1305, 1.1240, 1.1205, 1.1165
Resistance: 1.1465, 1.1535, 1.1585, 1.1645, 1.1725
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.1420 with targets at 1.1585 and stop loss with four-hour closing below 1.1350
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Euro: Euro retraced after moving to a high of 1.3293 . Holding above 1.3150 would maintain the bullish view for euro. The charts show some more room to correct but 1.3150 (100 day EMA on 4 hrly) should ideally hold for a move back to 1.3250. (Eur/Usd:1.3170). Bullish.
Pound: The pair went till the high of 1.4770 (bottom of the rising trendline) and corrected 170 pips since then, the strategy for pound stays slightly neutral until it recovers its losses breaking 1.47 again by today or tomorrow. Stay neutral. Gbp/Usd: 1.4590). Neutral.
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair is clearly in the downtrend again after breaking the trendline support at 98.32 and also after meeting weekly resistance at 101.70. The bias of the pair is clearly bearish i.e usd would be weak till 99.00 (rising trendline) breaks and holds again. Bearish (Usd/Jpy: 96.54).
Australian Dollar: Aussie is clearly staying below the trendline support and holding below it . The weekly stochastic is indicating selling opportunities at every rise. Stay short on the pair targeting 0.6940 as our first target. Bearish (Aud/Usd: 0.7114).
Gold: Gold has moved with excellent momentum but highly overbought at the charts . It is likely to correct till 895 dollars after a push higher again. Medium term slightly bullish. Bullish (Gold: $915.00).
Dollar index :The charts indicate a break of upward trendline again . Dollar index is showing bearish signals in medium term (DI-85.30). Bearish.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3144 and 1.3092(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3061, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3050. Break of the latter would result in 1.3016. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.2982. Continuation will give 1.2957. Today's resistance: - 1.3210 (main). Break would give 1.3234, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3262. Break of the latter would result in 1.3297. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3316. Continuation will give 1.3340.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 96.30(main). Break would bring 96.01, where correction is possible. Then 95.86, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 95.64. If a strong impulse, we would see 95.40. Continuation would give 95.18.
Today's resistance: - 97.26 and 97.43(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 97.87, where also a correction may be. Then 98.12. If a strong impulse, we would see 98.44. Continuation will give 98.57.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8021.23 and 7987.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7959.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 7922.80. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7900.20. Continuation will bring 7871.40. Today's resistance: - 8123.46(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8150.62, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8173.13, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8195.62. Continuation would bring 8246.30 and 8280.00.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Closing above the thinnest point of the Ichimoku 'cloud' and the 9-day moving average (struggling with the 26-day one), with a 'bullish engulfing' candle on the weekly candle. Momentum has yet to turn bullish but should do when we break above the top of the large 'flag'.Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.3145; stop below 1.3000. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3305 for 1.3400 short term and 1.3600 further out.Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.3135 " 1.3255
1.3113 1.3302*
1.309 1.3395*
1.3000* 1.3515
1.295 1.3585
GBPUSD
Comment: Consolidating above the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud', closing above the 26-day moving average, in what can be seen as a 'bullish engulfing' candle. Bullish momentum might increase if we hold above 1.4600 today though really a weekly close above 1.5000 is essential for a decent rally to really get going.Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4555; stop below 1.4380. Short term target 1.4700, eventually 1.5000.
Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.4550 " 1.4675
1.45 1.4708
1.444 1.478
1.4397* 1.4855
1.435 1.496
USDJPY
Comment: Re-testing Friday's low, the 61% Fibonacci retracement and the 9 and 26-day moving averages have crossed to a sell. We have adjusted our view and now see April's high at 101.45 as an interim top so that prices are likely to hold below here for another couple of months or so. The next step should be a bout of generalised US dollar weakness so that dollar/Yen drops towards 93.50.Strategy: Attempt shorts at 96.65, adding to 98.00; stop well above 98.50. Add to shorts on a break below 96.50 for 95.75 short term, probably 93.50 further out. Direction of Trade: →
Support Resistance
96.50* " 97
96.35 97.25
95.95 97.44
95.65* 98.15
95.35 98.50*
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Potensi Kenaikan IHSG (Uptrend) Pekan Ini Terbatas
Market Review
IHSG masih mengalami tekanan penjualan hari Jumat (24/04), setelah mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari rusaknya sistem perdagangan saham di JAKS BEI hari Kamis (23/04) dan aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham (TLKM, ASII, PGAS), dapat dibatasi oleh reboundnya harga saham dari grup Bakrie (BUMI, UNSP, BTEL, ELTY, ENRG, DEWA) dan sejumlah saham dari perkebunan dan pertambangan. Tekanan penjualan dari isu negatif retaknya koalisi partai Demokrat-Golkar sedikit mereda. IHSG ditutup melemah tipis, -1.364 (0.086%) di level 1,591.336 hari Jumat (24/04), nilai transaksi saham sebesar Rp 2.988 triliun. IHSG melemah 43.454 poin (-2.6%) pekan lalu, dimana pekan sebelumnya melejit 169.04 poin paska pemilu 9 April. Investor asing mencatat net sell sebesar Rp 18.172 miliar, lebih tinggi dibandingkan net sell Rp 15.46 miliar hari Kamis (23/04).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific ditutup mix hari Jumat (24/04), Nikkei 225 ditutup melemah setelah earning dari JFE Holdings dan KDDI Corp meredam optimisme resesi akan segera berakhir, meski Hang Seng ditutup menguat. MSCI Asia-Pasific ditutup melemah 0.2% pada pekan lalu, berkat lemahnya earnings Q1.
IHSG Outlook
Pekan ini, IHSG dapat mengalami hambatan untuk menguat, berkat perkiraan inflasi April RI (berada di atas 0% m/m) hari Jumat, karena tingginya konsumsi di pemilu April 2009, dapat menghambat laju penurunan suku bunga BI di pekan depan dan laporan investor asing mencatat outflow $ 72 juta dari pasar saham di pekan lalu. Isu koalisi untuk pilpres 2009 masih membayangi kinerja IHSG. Hasil uji ketahanan (Stress Test) oleh BI pada seluruh bank nasional di Q1 2009 menunjukkan trend kenaikan NPL (kisaran 5-6% jika GDP RI 4%), dapat membebani kinerja saham perbankan. Meski saham komoditi masih dapat melanjutkan trend kenaikan, setelah harga CPO (pemerintah menetapkan HPE CPO untuk periode Mei 2009 meningkat menjadi $ 560/MT dari $ 515/MT di April 2009) dan harga minyak dikisaran $ 50/ton pekan lalu. Faktor teknikal IHSG yang overbought dan faktor eksternal: earning AS, GDP, FOMC, ISM AS, Stress Test bank AS (dirilis 4 Mei), dapat membebani IHSG.
Stock Picks:
* ASII
* BYAN
Technical Analysis:
IHSG berpotensi menguat pada hari Senin, berkat signal reversal minor di candle daily doji star dengan volume yang rendah (trend penurunan dalam 4 sesi terakhir) dibayangi oleh overboughtnya MACD, ADX dan stohastic, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan beberapa hari mendatang. Sementara signal dari weekly chart menunjukkan IHSG masih berada dalam teritorial bearish karena MACD downtrend dan pola candle shooting star, meski ada potensi kenaikan dari indikator stochastic crossing up dari oversold, ADX trending up dan volume 2 pekan terakhir meningkat. Potensi kenaikan IHSG pekan ini akan terbatas berkat adanya downtrendline di 1,665 dan 1,683 (upperline di uptrend channel). Penutupan pekan ini dibawah 1,572 dapat merubah trend bullish minor menjadi netral, untuk target 1,460/1,350 dalam 1-4 pekan mendatang. Tetapi penutupan mingguan diatas 1,665 dapat mengarahkan IHSG ke target 1,753 (38.2% fibo retracement). Weekly chart menunjukkan IHSG berada di koreksi wave 4.
Resistance: 1762.14/1712.82/1682.45/1652.07/1633.13. PP 1614.18
Support : 1553.43/1515.54/1466.22/1416.90/1367.58
(Perkiraan Range Weekly 1,520-1,660)
Regional Outlook
Pekan ini, indeks regional akan diperdagangkan volatile, berkat data ekonomi (ISM, FOMC), earnings dari AS dan Stress Test 19 bank AS (4 Mei). Perkiraan GDP Q1 AS tercatat -4.9% Q/Q, hasil sementara Stress Test bank AS menunjukkan sedikitnya 1 bank memerlukan dana dari pemerintah, 4 bank regional di AS diambil alih pemerintah, diikuti trend kenaikan pengangguran, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan DJIA dari teknikal (candle spinning top, stochastic crossing up) uptrend dan penyataan G7 di akhir pekan, pemulihan ekonomi global akan mulai di akhir tahun ini.
IHSG masih mengalami tekanan penjualan hari Jumat (24/04), setelah mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari rusaknya sistem perdagangan saham di JAKS BEI hari Kamis (23/04) dan aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham (TLKM, ASII, PGAS), dapat dibatasi oleh reboundnya harga saham dari grup Bakrie (BUMI, UNSP, BTEL, ELTY, ENRG, DEWA) dan sejumlah saham dari perkebunan dan pertambangan. Tekanan penjualan dari isu negatif retaknya koalisi partai Demokrat-Golkar sedikit mereda. IHSG ditutup melemah tipis, -1.364 (0.086%) di level 1,591.336 hari Jumat (24/04), nilai transaksi saham sebesar Rp 2.988 triliun. IHSG melemah 43.454 poin (-2.6%) pekan lalu, dimana pekan sebelumnya melejit 169.04 poin paska pemilu 9 April. Investor asing mencatat net sell sebesar Rp 18.172 miliar, lebih tinggi dibandingkan net sell Rp 15.46 miliar hari Kamis (23/04).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific ditutup mix hari Jumat (24/04), Nikkei 225 ditutup melemah setelah earning dari JFE Holdings dan KDDI Corp meredam optimisme resesi akan segera berakhir, meski Hang Seng ditutup menguat. MSCI Asia-Pasific ditutup melemah 0.2% pada pekan lalu, berkat lemahnya earnings Q1.
IHSG Outlook
Pekan ini, IHSG dapat mengalami hambatan untuk menguat, berkat perkiraan inflasi April RI (berada di atas 0% m/m) hari Jumat, karena tingginya konsumsi di pemilu April 2009, dapat menghambat laju penurunan suku bunga BI di pekan depan dan laporan investor asing mencatat outflow $ 72 juta dari pasar saham di pekan lalu. Isu koalisi untuk pilpres 2009 masih membayangi kinerja IHSG. Hasil uji ketahanan (Stress Test) oleh BI pada seluruh bank nasional di Q1 2009 menunjukkan trend kenaikan NPL (kisaran 5-6% jika GDP RI 4%), dapat membebani kinerja saham perbankan. Meski saham komoditi masih dapat melanjutkan trend kenaikan, setelah harga CPO (pemerintah menetapkan HPE CPO untuk periode Mei 2009 meningkat menjadi $ 560/MT dari $ 515/MT di April 2009) dan harga minyak dikisaran $ 50/ton pekan lalu. Faktor teknikal IHSG yang overbought dan faktor eksternal: earning AS, GDP, FOMC, ISM AS, Stress Test bank AS (dirilis 4 Mei), dapat membebani IHSG.
Stock Picks:
* ASII
* BYAN
Technical Analysis:
IHSG berpotensi menguat pada hari Senin, berkat signal reversal minor di candle daily doji star dengan volume yang rendah (trend penurunan dalam 4 sesi terakhir) dibayangi oleh overboughtnya MACD, ADX dan stohastic, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan beberapa hari mendatang. Sementara signal dari weekly chart menunjukkan IHSG masih berada dalam teritorial bearish karena MACD downtrend dan pola candle shooting star, meski ada potensi kenaikan dari indikator stochastic crossing up dari oversold, ADX trending up dan volume 2 pekan terakhir meningkat. Potensi kenaikan IHSG pekan ini akan terbatas berkat adanya downtrendline di 1,665 dan 1,683 (upperline di uptrend channel). Penutupan pekan ini dibawah 1,572 dapat merubah trend bullish minor menjadi netral, untuk target 1,460/1,350 dalam 1-4 pekan mendatang. Tetapi penutupan mingguan diatas 1,665 dapat mengarahkan IHSG ke target 1,753 (38.2% fibo retracement). Weekly chart menunjukkan IHSG berada di koreksi wave 4.
Resistance: 1762.14/1712.82/1682.45/1652.07/1633.13. PP 1614.18
Support : 1553.43/1515.54/1466.22/1416.90/1367.58
(Perkiraan Range Weekly 1,520-1,660)
Regional Outlook
Pekan ini, indeks regional akan diperdagangkan volatile, berkat data ekonomi (ISM, FOMC), earnings dari AS dan Stress Test 19 bank AS (4 Mei). Perkiraan GDP Q1 AS tercatat -4.9% Q/Q, hasil sementara Stress Test bank AS menunjukkan sedikitnya 1 bank memerlukan dana dari pemerintah, 4 bank regional di AS diambil alih pemerintah, diikuti trend kenaikan pengangguran, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan DJIA dari teknikal (candle spinning top, stochastic crossing up) uptrend dan penyataan G7 di akhir pekan, pemulihan ekonomi global akan mulai di akhir tahun ini.
Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (27 April - 1 Mei 2009)
Date WIB +11 JAM Currency Impact
Sun
Apr 26 Day 2 ALL IMF Meetings
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
Mon
Apr 27 2:00am
EUR GfK German Consumer Climate
2:00am
EUR German Import Prices m/m
4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals
12:45pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
7:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y
Tue
Apr 28 2:00am CHF UBS Consumption Indicator
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m
4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m
6:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales
9:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence
10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
6:45pm NZD Trade Balance
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales
11:00pm NZD NBNZ Business Confidence
Wed
Apr 29 4:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
4:00am EUR Private Loans y/y
5:00am EUR Consumer Confidence
5:30am CHF KOF Economic Barometer
8:30am USD Advance GDP q/q
8:30am USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
2:15pm USD FOMC Statement
2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate
5:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate
5:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
6:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m
7:01pm GBP GfK Consumer Confidence
Tentative GBP BOE Financial Stability Report
7:15pm JPY Manufacturing PMI
7:50pm JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m
8:00pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m
9:30pm AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
9:30pm AUD Private Sector Credit m/m
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate
Thu
Apr 30 1:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y
30th-5th EUR German Retail Sales m/m
2:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m
2:00am JPY BOJ Outlook Report
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change
5:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y
5:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m
5:00am EUR Unemployment Rate
8:30am CAD GDP m/m
8:30am CAD RMPI m/m
8:30am CAD IPPI m/m
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
8:30am USD Employment Cost Index q/q
8:30am USD Personal Spending m/m
8:30am USD Personal Income m/m
9:45am USD Chicago PMI
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage
7:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index
7:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y
7:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y
7:30pm JPY National Core CPI y/y
7:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate
9:30pm JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y
Fri
May 1 All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
2:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y
1st-9th GBP Halifax HPI m/m
4:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI
4:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
4:30am GBP Mortgage Approvals
9:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
9:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales
Sun
Apr 26 Day 2 ALL IMF Meetings
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
Mon
Apr 27 2:00am
EUR GfK German Consumer Climate
2:00am
EUR German Import Prices m/m
4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals
12:45pm EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
7:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y
Tue
Apr 28 2:00am CHF UBS Consumption Indicator
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m
4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m
6:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales
9:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence
10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
6:45pm NZD Trade Balance
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales
11:00pm NZD NBNZ Business Confidence
Wed
Apr 29 4:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
4:00am EUR Private Loans y/y
5:00am EUR Consumer Confidence
5:30am CHF KOF Economic Barometer
8:30am USD Advance GDP q/q
8:30am USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
2:15pm USD FOMC Statement
2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate
5:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate
5:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
6:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m
7:01pm GBP GfK Consumer Confidence
Tentative GBP BOE Financial Stability Report
7:15pm JPY Manufacturing PMI
7:50pm JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m
8:00pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m
9:30pm AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
9:30pm AUD Private Sector Credit m/m
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate
Thu
Apr 30 1:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y
30th-5th EUR German Retail Sales m/m
2:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m
2:00am JPY BOJ Outlook Report
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change
5:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y
5:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m
5:00am EUR Unemployment Rate
8:30am CAD GDP m/m
8:30am CAD RMPI m/m
8:30am CAD IPPI m/m
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
8:30am USD Employment Cost Index q/q
8:30am USD Personal Spending m/m
8:30am USD Personal Income m/m
9:45am USD Chicago PMI
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage
7:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index
7:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y
7:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y
7:30pm JPY National Core CPI y/y
7:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate
9:30pm JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y
Fri
May 1 All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
2:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y
1st-9th GBP Halifax HPI m/m
4:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI
4:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
4:30am GBP Mortgage Approvals
9:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
9:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales
Week Ahead: Stocks in Tug of War—but Trend Looks Up
Stocks enter the week ahead locked in an intense tug-of-war between investors who hope the worst is over and those who expect more bad economic news to derail the market's rally. Traders, for weeks now, have been expecting a pull back after the market's near 30 percent run. But stocks continue to hold gains despite the past week's slight decline.In the coming week, another wave of earnings will be big news for markets, and there is also a Fed meeting, first quarter GDP and monthly auto sales. The focus will also be on banks, as investors await the May 4 release of government stress test results on 19 institutions that received government funds.
Earnings have not been the negative catalyst some had feared this quarter. "We had about a third of the S&P 500 so far, and the beat to miss ratio is higher than average. About 70 percent have met or beat estimates," Hogan said. In the fourth quarter, only 30 percent met or beat estimates.Stocks broke a six-week winning streak and were slightly lower in the past week. The S&P 500 fell 3 points for the week or 0.39 percent to 866 but it is still 28 percent higher than its March low. The Dow was off 0.7 percent at 8076, but the Nasdaq rose 21 points or 1.3 percent to 1694.The S&P is down 4.1 percent for the year, but the tech-driven Nasdaq is positive, up 7.4 percent for the year and at its highest level since early November. Materials stocks were the best performers, up 2.2 percent for the week, followed by tech shares, which rose nearly 2 percent. The worst performers among S&P sectors were health care, down 3.7 percent and consumer staples, down 2.8 percent.Doll, also global chief investment officer for equities, said there's more room left in the market's current drive higher, and any pull back should only be in the four to five percent range, versus the deeper declines some expect. Doll does believe stocks bottomed in early March, and that the worst period for the economic downturn was in the fourth and first quarters. "The worst six months of the recession are now officially in the rearview mirror and that's the good news, unless there's something I don't know coming," he said.
What Else to Watch
President Obama, on his 100th day in office Wednesday, plans an 8 p.m. press briefing. It is expected he will provide a progress report on his programs including an update on the financial and auto industry bailouts. Both of those topics will again dominate the news in the coming week. The perimeters for the government's stress tests for the largest institutions receiving funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program was much anticipated but received mixed reviews when it was released Friday. Some analysts said it disappointed for its lack of detail. Traders expect rumors and speculation to surround the financial sector ahead of the May 4 release of results for individual institutions. Banks received those results from the Fed Friday.
Bank of America's [BAC 9.10 0.28 (+3.17%)] annual meeting Wednesday also promises to get a lot of attention, particularly after reports this past week that CEO Ken Lewis told New York's Attorney General that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson told him to keep mum about Merrill Lynch's deteriorating condition during its merger with Bank of America. Some investors have been calling for Lewis' ouster and the meeting promises to be raucous. Another major story investors are watching is the restructuring of the auto industry, as Chrysler flirts with bankruptcy and heads to a merger with Fiat. General Motors [GM 1.69 0.07 (+4.32%)] plans to shut down much of its manufacturing for two months and is expected to eliminate the Pontiac brand. Meanwhile, Ford [F 5.00 0.51 (+11.36%)] on Friday surprised with a smaller than expected loss, indicated it was burning through less cash, and said it is beginning to see a turn."This is the crescendo of what has been a four-decade evolution. Did anyone even notice there were more than 600,000 workers in 1974 versus 50,000 at GM today? That restructuring has already happened," she said.
Traders in the Treasury market expect a deluge of new issuance in the coming week. The government said it would auction $100 billion of notes. The 10-year Friday finished the week with a yield of 2.996 percent. Its yield had hit 3 percent during Friday trading as investors sold bonds.
Econorama
The big data point in the coming week is Wednesday's release of first quarter GDP, expected to show a decline of a 4.6 percent. Economists expect it to be a shallower decline than the 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter."I think it could be down close to 5.5 percent," said Swonk. "I think the second quarter could be less than 1 percent but that's not hard to do. You've had two major contractions and a major decline in inventories and you have the housing market starting to zero out, in activity, not in price." She said if housing does hit bottom, it could become a small positive contribution in the second half.Other data expected in the week ahead includes S&P/Case Shiller Home prices and consumer confidence Tuesday. Weekly jobless claims, personal income, consumer spending, employment costs, and Chicago purchasing managers index are reported Thursday. ISM manufacturing, consumer sentiment, factory orders and monthly auto sales are Friday. On Monday, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair speaks at the Economics Club in New York at midday. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner participates in a conference on China in Washington Friday, and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks in Hot Springs, Ark. Friday.
Oil Drill
Oil finished the week up 1.75 percent at $51.55, but on Friday it bounced nearly 4 percent higher along with other commodities. Oil traders have also been watching rising tensions in Pakistan, where the Taliban has taken new territory closer to Islamabad. "At some point, there could be a security premium that will build in if the situation in Pakistan escalates," he said.
Dollar Daze
The dollar fell 1.6 percent against the euro in the past week and more than 2 percent against the yen. It should stay under selling pressure in the week ahead, according to Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com.Gold finished Friday at $913.60 per troy ounce, up 5 percent for the week. "While gold holds above 905, it's got potential up to 930 initially," Dolan said. "Theoretically the uptrend is resuming again," he said.
Earnings Central
There's a heavy calendar of earnings news in the coming week, with 146 S&P 500 companies reporting. Those companies include Verizon, Whirlpool, Humana, and Corning on Monday. Tuesday's reports include BP, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers, FPL, U.S. Steel, Valero, Dreamworks, Sun Micro, Massey Energy, VF Corp and McGraw Hill. (See more earnings below quote box.). Royal Dutch Shell, Wyeth, Aetna, Time Warner, General Dynamics, Medco and Waste Management report Wednesday. Thursday's reports include ExxonMobil, Procter and Gamble, Apache, AstraZeneca, Colgate-Palmolive, Comcast, Newmont Mining, Dow Chemical, Kellogg, Motorola, Marathon Oil, Celgene, Starwood, and Travelers. Hartford Financial, Monster Worldwide and MetLife release earnings after the bell that day.
CNBC.com
Earnings have not been the negative catalyst some had feared this quarter. "We had about a third of the S&P 500 so far, and the beat to miss ratio is higher than average. About 70 percent have met or beat estimates," Hogan said. In the fourth quarter, only 30 percent met or beat estimates.Stocks broke a six-week winning streak and were slightly lower in the past week. The S&P 500 fell 3 points for the week or 0.39 percent to 866 but it is still 28 percent higher than its March low. The Dow was off 0.7 percent at 8076, but the Nasdaq rose 21 points or 1.3 percent to 1694.The S&P is down 4.1 percent for the year, but the tech-driven Nasdaq is positive, up 7.4 percent for the year and at its highest level since early November. Materials stocks were the best performers, up 2.2 percent for the week, followed by tech shares, which rose nearly 2 percent. The worst performers among S&P sectors were health care, down 3.7 percent and consumer staples, down 2.8 percent.Doll, also global chief investment officer for equities, said there's more room left in the market's current drive higher, and any pull back should only be in the four to five percent range, versus the deeper declines some expect. Doll does believe stocks bottomed in early March, and that the worst period for the economic downturn was in the fourth and first quarters. "The worst six months of the recession are now officially in the rearview mirror and that's the good news, unless there's something I don't know coming," he said.
What Else to Watch
President Obama, on his 100th day in office Wednesday, plans an 8 p.m. press briefing. It is expected he will provide a progress report on his programs including an update on the financial and auto industry bailouts. Both of those topics will again dominate the news in the coming week. The perimeters for the government's stress tests for the largest institutions receiving funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program was much anticipated but received mixed reviews when it was released Friday. Some analysts said it disappointed for its lack of detail. Traders expect rumors and speculation to surround the financial sector ahead of the May 4 release of results for individual institutions. Banks received those results from the Fed Friday.
Bank of America's [BAC 9.10 0.28 (+3.17%)] annual meeting Wednesday also promises to get a lot of attention, particularly after reports this past week that CEO Ken Lewis told New York's Attorney General that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson told him to keep mum about Merrill Lynch's deteriorating condition during its merger with Bank of America. Some investors have been calling for Lewis' ouster and the meeting promises to be raucous. Another major story investors are watching is the restructuring of the auto industry, as Chrysler flirts with bankruptcy and heads to a merger with Fiat. General Motors [GM 1.69 0.07 (+4.32%)] plans to shut down much of its manufacturing for two months and is expected to eliminate the Pontiac brand. Meanwhile, Ford [F 5.00 0.51 (+11.36%)] on Friday surprised with a smaller than expected loss, indicated it was burning through less cash, and said it is beginning to see a turn."This is the crescendo of what has been a four-decade evolution. Did anyone even notice there were more than 600,000 workers in 1974 versus 50,000 at GM today? That restructuring has already happened," she said.
Traders in the Treasury market expect a deluge of new issuance in the coming week. The government said it would auction $100 billion of notes. The 10-year Friday finished the week with a yield of 2.996 percent. Its yield had hit 3 percent during Friday trading as investors sold bonds.
Econorama
The big data point in the coming week is Wednesday's release of first quarter GDP, expected to show a decline of a 4.6 percent. Economists expect it to be a shallower decline than the 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter."I think it could be down close to 5.5 percent," said Swonk. "I think the second quarter could be less than 1 percent but that's not hard to do. You've had two major contractions and a major decline in inventories and you have the housing market starting to zero out, in activity, not in price." She said if housing does hit bottom, it could become a small positive contribution in the second half.Other data expected in the week ahead includes S&P/Case Shiller Home prices and consumer confidence Tuesday. Weekly jobless claims, personal income, consumer spending, employment costs, and Chicago purchasing managers index are reported Thursday. ISM manufacturing, consumer sentiment, factory orders and monthly auto sales are Friday. On Monday, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair speaks at the Economics Club in New York at midday. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner participates in a conference on China in Washington Friday, and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks in Hot Springs, Ark. Friday.
Oil Drill
Oil finished the week up 1.75 percent at $51.55, but on Friday it bounced nearly 4 percent higher along with other commodities. Oil traders have also been watching rising tensions in Pakistan, where the Taliban has taken new territory closer to Islamabad. "At some point, there could be a security premium that will build in if the situation in Pakistan escalates," he said.
Dollar Daze
The dollar fell 1.6 percent against the euro in the past week and more than 2 percent against the yen. It should stay under selling pressure in the week ahead, according to Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com.Gold finished Friday at $913.60 per troy ounce, up 5 percent for the week. "While gold holds above 905, it's got potential up to 930 initially," Dolan said. "Theoretically the uptrend is resuming again," he said.
Earnings Central
There's a heavy calendar of earnings news in the coming week, with 146 S&P 500 companies reporting. Those companies include Verizon, Whirlpool, Humana, and Corning on Monday. Tuesday's reports include BP, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers, FPL, U.S. Steel, Valero, Dreamworks, Sun Micro, Massey Energy, VF Corp and McGraw Hill. (See more earnings below quote box.). Royal Dutch Shell, Wyeth, Aetna, Time Warner, General Dynamics, Medco and Waste Management report Wednesday. Thursday's reports include ExxonMobil, Procter and Gamble, Apache, AstraZeneca, Colgate-Palmolive, Comcast, Newmont Mining, Dow Chemical, Kellogg, Motorola, Marathon Oil, Celgene, Starwood, and Travelers. Hartford Financial, Monster Worldwide and MetLife release earnings after the bell that day.
CNBC.com
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