Devaluasi USD Berdampak Positif Untuk Euro dan Pound

USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
79.16 89.62 (04/03) 78.97 (29/05) 1.3933 1.4227 (01/06) 1.2459 (04/03)

Dolar AS melemah terhadap mata uang utama dunia terutama yen, euro dan pound, berkat spekulasi General Motor Corp AS akan mengajukan kebangkrutan hari ini, meningkatkan permintaan untuk mata uang yen, euro dan pound. General Motor akan mengumumkan hasil pada pukul 08.00 waktu New York, memberikan signal resesi global masih belum berakhir. Indeks Dolar terpuruk ke level terendah 79.122 di sesi perdagangan Asia setelah pasar saham Asia melejit dan harga minyak mencapai level tertinggi $ 67.00/barel, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar yang juga tengah dilanda sentimen negatif isu rating hutang AS, mendorong investor memburu aset yang memiliki tingkat suku bunga yang lebih tinggi. Indeks PMI China bulan Mei terkoreksi ke 53.1 dari 53.5 di bulan April, meredakan kekhawatiran ekonomi China mungkin gagal mendorong pemulihan ekonomi global, ikut memukul sentimen untuk dolar AS. Sebelumnya dolar melanjutkan pelemahan hari Jumat (29/05), melemah ke level terendah 5-bulan terhadap euro dan mencapai terendah 7-bulan terhadap pound, berkat positifnya laporan ekonomi dari Jepang, Jerman, Inggris dan AS, yang meningkatkan optimisme untuk pandangan ekonomi global. Spekulasi dana pensiun Korea Selatan akan mengurangi kepemilikan dolar, GDP Q1 AS direvisi -5.7% dan projeksi defisit anggaran AS akan melonjak menjadi $ 1.85 triliun di 2009 (13% dari GDP), ikut membebani USD. Pekan ini pasar akan mengamati data ISM, payroll Testmony Fed Bernanke, pertemuan ECB dan BOE dapat melemahkan dolar lebih lanjut.

Euro menguat terhadap dolar AS berkat spekulasi General Motor Corp AS akan mengajukan kebangkrutan hari ini, mendorong kekhawatiran terhadap pemulihan ekonomi AS dan imbas kenaikan pasar saham Asia Pasifik yang mencapai level tertinggi 8-bulan terbaru dan harga komoditi minyak yang mencapai $ 67.00, tertinggi 6 bulan, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk memegang euro. Euro dolar telah mencapai level tertinggi 5-bulan di $ 1.4167 hari Jumat. Kekhawatiran mengenai defisit anggraran dan isu penurunan rating hutang AS oleh Moodys, revisi kenaikan GDP Q1 AS menjadi -5.7% y/y dan spekulasi dana pensiun Korea Selatan akan memangkas kepemilikan dolar AS, masih membebani kinerja dolar pada awal pekan ini. Meski laju penguatan euro terbatas karena kekhawatiran bank sentral Eropa pada pekan ini akan memberikan signal untuk mempertahankan suku bunga dan spekulasi ECB akan mengumumkan ukuran kebijakan tambahan untuk memulihkan ekonom di zona euro. Sebelumnya euro menguat berkat kekhawatiran penjualan Treasury AS mendorong aksi penjualan Treasury dan dolar AS, telah mengangkat euro di atas level 1.41 untuk pertama kali di tahun ini. Kontras dengan kekhawatiran inflasi di AS, inflasi di euro terkendali, berada di 0.0% d bulan Mei, meningkatkan kekhawatiran harga akan merosot lebih lanjut dan deflasi masih berlanjut di euro. Pekan ini pasar akan mengamati pertemuan ECB dan kebijakan quantative easing hari Kamis.

USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
95.38 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5925 1.6394 (01/06) 1.3502 (23/01)

Yen menguat lebih lanjut terhadap dolar AS di sesi perdagangan Asia hari ini, dimana melejitnya pasar saham global dan harga komoditi yang telah menyentuh $ 67/barel berkat spekulasi General Motor Corp AS akan mengajukan kebangkrutan pada hari ini. Yen menguat terhadap 16 mata uang yang paling aktif diperdagangkan. Yen menguat ke level tertinggi Y 94.67 terhadap dolar dan menguat ke Y 133.90 terhadap euro di sesi Asia hari ini. Meningkatnya sentimen negatif untuk dolar pada pekan lalu, seperti kekhawatiran terhadap rating hutang AS, defisit anggaran, data GDP Q1 AS direvisi naik menjadi -5.7% dari perkiraan -5.5%, diikuti lebih baik dari perkiraan data Industrial Production Jepang bulan April dan PMI China bulan Mei yang dirilis hari ini. Kekhawatiran National Pension Services Korea Selatan (memiliki aset $ 189 miliar) mungkin akan memangkas alokasi untuk Treasury, ikut membebani kinerja USD. Pada pekan ini, investor dan trader akan mengamati data ekonomi AS (ISM & payroll), testimony Fed Bernanke dan pertemuan ECB, BOE dimana dapat mendorng kembali penguatan yen terhadap dolar jika data tercatat diatas perkiraan.

Pound sterling melanjutkan penguatan terhadap dolar dan euro, berkat spekulasi General Motor Corp AS akan mengajukan kebangkrutan pada hari ini. Pound menguat ke level tertinggi $ 1.6244 terhadap dolar, level tertinggi 7-pekan. Pound mencatat kenaikan bulanan terbesar terhadap dolar dalam 1/4 abad berkat meningkatnya bukti ekonomi Inggris mulai keluar dari resesi terburuk sejak Perang Dunia Ke 2. pound juga menguat untuk pekan ketiga dalam 4 pekan terakhir dan diperdagankan di level tertinggi tahun ini setelah data harga rumah Inggris secara tidak terduga melonjak di bulan Mei dan dara consumer confidence bulan Mei menyamai level tertinggi hampir setahun. Pound menguat 9.5% di bulan ini. Nationwide Building Society kemarin melaporkan harga rata-rata rumah meningkat 1.2% setelah merosot 0.3% di bulan April, indeks sentimen konsumen tetap berada di -27. Sementara hari ini, Inggris melaporkan harga rumah mewah Inggris anjlok 20%, penurunan terkecil di tahun ini, ikut memberikan sentimen positif untuk pound. Pound dapat menguat lebih lanjut, berkat perkiraan data ekonomi AS dan testimony Bernanke dapat mendorong spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global.

USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.0881 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7845 0.8124 (01/06) 0.6248 (02/02)

Swiss franc menguat terhadap dolar, berkat spekulasi General Motor Corp AS akan mengajukan kebangkrutan hari ini, meningkatkan permintaan untuk mata uang yen, euro dan pound. General Motor akan mengumumkan hasil pada pukul 08.00 waktu New York, memberikan signal resesi global masih belum berakhir. Swiss franc menguat ke level tertinggi 1.0661 di sesi perdagangan Asia setelah pasar saham Asia melejit dan harga minyak mencapai level tertinggi $ 67.00/barel, menurunkan daya tarik untuk memegang dolar yang juga tengah dilanda sentimen negatif isu rating hutang AS, mendorong investor memburu aset yang memiliki tingkat suku bunga yang lebih tinggi. Indeks PMI China bulan Mei terkoreksi ke 53.1 dari 53.5 di bulan April, meningkatkan keyakinan investor globalPekan ini pasar akan mengamati data GDP Q1 Swiss, data ISM, payroll Testimony Fed Bernanke, pertemuan ECB dan BOE dapat menguatkan CHF lebih lanjut.

Dolar Australia (Aussie) dan dolar Selandia Baru (kiwi) mencapai level tertinggi 8-bulan karena laporan manufakturing di China meningkat untuk bulan ke-3. Kiwi juga menguat berkat signal pendapatan komoditi akan meningkat di tengah sebuah pemulihan ekonomi. Harga komoditi, dimana mencakup 50% dari ekspor Australia dan Selandia Baru, melonjak di bulan Mei, mengalami kenaikan terbesar sejak 1974 di tengah kekhawatiran defisit anggaran akan mendevaluasi dolar. Aussie melonjak ke rekor tertinggi di akhir pekan lalu sebelum keputusan suku bunga bank sentral Australia, ekonom memperkirakan RBA akan mempertahankan suku bunga di 3%, level tertinggi diantara negara maju. Imbas kenaikan saham global dan harga minyak yang mencapai $ 67/barel hari ini, masih dapat menguatkan aussie dan kiwi, menjelang data ISM, payroll AS dan testimony Fd Bernanke.

Technical Analysis

(+100p, closed at 1,4150) EUR-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan signal bullish rervesal minor dari pola candle long bullish candle setelah hari Kamis (28/05) menunjukkan pola bulish harami. Meski euro dibayangi oleh kondisi teknikal Stochastic dan MACD yang extreme overbought, diikuti ADX yang menunjukkan flat seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan euro terbatas. Support berada di 1.4006 (61.8 FE)/1.3798 (support line). Resistance berada di 1.4167 (61.8FE). Euro dalam proses koreksi wave minute 5 - minor C zig zag - wave intermediate 4, potensi toppish di $ 1.4175/1,4293 (upper channel). Buy 1.4060 & buy break 1.4175 target di 1.4290 stop 50p, sell break 1.4000 target 1.3900 stop 50p, Sell 1.4280 target 1.4000 stop 50p.

(+100p, at 95.00, hold buy 95.15 target 95.90) USDJPY masih menunjukkan pola head & shoulder dan downtrend channel, dimana kegagalan menembus 96.86 (upper channel) dapat memberikan tekanan kepada jpy target neckline H&S di 93.81. Sementara signal negatif muncul dari pola candle long bearish, meski ADX terkoreksi di saat mengalami penurunan, meski MACD dan Stochastic menunjukkan oversold, memperlihat perkiraan range trading 94-96 dalam 1-2 hari ini. Jika ditutup dibawah level 95.21 (10-day MA) target 94.62/93.51 (downward channel). Resistance berada di 97.05 (200-day MA)/98.53 (downtrend line). Sell 97.35 target 96.00 stop 97.90, sell break 96.00 target 95.00 stop 50p. Sell 98.50 target 96.00 stop 50p.

(+150p, at 1.6240). GBP-USD menunjukkan trend bullish karena berada dalam uptrend channel dalam diagonal triangle meski menunjukkan pola candle long bullish yang menunjukkan bullish continuation, didukung Indikator MACD, Stochastic, ADX menunjukkan trend up kembali, volume menunjukkan kenaikan, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Penutupan GBP diatas 1.5900 (10-day MA)/1.6050 (support line) dapat menopang GBP, untuk target 1.6320 (resistance line)/1.6380 (upper channel). Analisa EW menunjukkan proses wave motive minute 5 dalam wave impulse 3. Buy break 1.6250 target 1.6320 stop 50p. Sell break 1.5960 target 1.5850 stop 50p. Sell 1.6320 & 1.6380 target 1.6150 stop 50p. Sell break 1.6050 target 1.5850 stop 50p. Buy 1.6150 target 1.6320

(+50p) AUD-USD mendapatkan signal positif dari pola bullish continuation candle kemarin didukung oleh ADX, stochastic dan MACD yang masih uptrend, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan aud hari ini. Meski trend masih bullish selama bertahan di atas 0.7831 (support line di rising wedge), untuk target 0.0.8171 (100.0 FE))/0.8429 (161.8 FE). Elliot wave menunjukkan wave impulse minor 3 dalam koreksi wave intermediate C dalam primary B. Buy 0.7865 target 0.8000 stop 50p, Buy 0.8000 target 0.8170 (closing) stop 45p, sell 0.8170 target 0.8000 stop 60p. Sell break 0.7970 target 0.7900.

Faktor Sentimen & Teknikal Dapat Angkat IHSG Pekan Ini

Market Review
Euphoria pembagian dividen emiten lokal (PTBA, INTA, BDMN, SCTV, BBNI, TINS, ANTM, HMSP, ASII), diikuti asing kembali upgrade saham lokal & ekonomi RI (BNP Paribas upgrade target IHSG - 2,200, Merrill Lynch merevisi naik target harga saham komoditi, Morgan Stanley meningkatkan prediksi pertumbuhan GDP 2009 RI menjadi 3.7% dari 1.9%, Citigroup upgrade target harga TLKM) dan spekulasi penurunan inflasi & BI rate, memberikan momentum kenaikan kepada IHSG pekan lalu. Sementara kenaikan indeks komoditi CRB (19 komoditi termasuk harga minyak capai tertinggi $66.56/barel, emas capai tertinggi $ 980/ons, cpo capai tertinggi $ 760/ton) meningkat 14% di pekan lalu, karena melemahnya dolar AS terhadap mata uang global dan meredanya ketegangan geopolitik regional Asia dari isu latihan militer Korea Utara, diikuti Indeks saham regional Asia menguat ke level tertinggi 8-bulan, ikut memberikan sentimen kepada IHSG. IHSG mengalami kenaikan 26.55 poin (1.4%) pada pekan lalu, ditutup di 1,916.83. IHSG menguat 13,955 poin (0.73%) menjadi 1916.83 hari Jumat (29/05).

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific menguat ke level tertinggi 8-bulan, yang merupakan kenaikan mingguan untuk pekan ke-4 dari 5 pekan terakhir, karena laporan keyakinan konsumen AS dan produksi Jepang meningkatkan harapan untuk pemulihan ekonomi dan harga komoditi global.

IHSG Outlook
IHSG diperkirakan dapat melanjutkan laju kenaikan pekan ini, berkat potensi kenaikan saham komoditi, finansial dan saham yang memiliki fundamental solid, setelah harga minyak dan logam mencapai level tertinggi 6-bulan (minyak $ 66.56/barel, emas $ 980/ons), masih kuatnya euphoria pembagian dividen emiten lokal dan kuatnya inflow ke pasar saham lokal berkat penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (Rp 10,280; 29/05) dan meningkatnya keyakinan investor asing dengan meningkatkan rating dan target indeks maupun harga saham lokal, diikuti hasil uji kelayakan BI menunjukan sehatnya sektor perbankan lokal, meredam kekhawatiran terhadap isu penurunan rating 10 bank lokal oleh Moody’s. Meski faktor resistansi teknikal yang kuat di 1,950 dan telah diantisipasinya (buy on rumor, sell on the news) perkiraan penurunan inflasi Indonesia bulan Mei dan BI rate (diperkirakan -25 bsp menjadi 7.0%) pada awal pekan ini, serta menjelang data tenaga kerja AS dan isu kebangkrutan General Motor Corp AS, masih dapat menahan laju kenaikan IHSG.

Stock Picks This Week: (Potential Yield > +10%; Risk <-10%)
* Commodity: UNSP,BUMI,INCO,INDY,ELSA,ENRG,PGAS
* TLKM,TRUB,ELTY,ISAT,SULI,BBRI,BMRI,BBNI,CTRA,KIJA

Global Outlook
Masih kuatnya sentimen positif untuk indeks regional Asia masih tingginya inflow ke pasar saham regional berkat spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi Asia (GDP Q1 India tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan: 5.8% y/y) lebih cepat dari ekonomi negara maju, imbas kenaikan harga komoditi global (harga minyak dapat capai $ 74, setelah OPEC pertahankan output pekan lalu dan inventory minyak AS capai level terendah 5-tahun) dapat menopang kinerja saham komoditi (batubara, logam, cpo, energi) serta perkiraan data ekonomi AS (ISM, Home Sales, ADP Employer, Payroll)) dan testimony Fed Bernanke (Rabu-Kamis) dapat angkat keyakinan diantara investor saham regional Asia pekan ini. Kekhawatiran terhadap latihan militer Korea Utara, isu kebangkrutan General Motor Corp (Senin), data revisi GDP Q1 Euro dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan indeks regional Asia pekan ini.

Technical Analysis:
IHSG diperkirakan dapat melanjutkan laju kenaikan, berkat indikator teknikal weekly menunjukkan momentum kenaikan yang kuat, dimana stochastic dan MACD berada dalam teritorial bullish, ADX trending up convergence dengan laju kenaikan. IHSG ditutup diatas 1,821 (10-weekly MA) & 1,678 (20-week MA) mendukung trend bullish jangka pendek. Meski laju kenaikan terbatas karena candle weekly menunjukan advanced block, adanya tahanan kuat di 1,950 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement 2,831-1,089)/2,000 (strong resistance)/2,085 (upper channel). Untuk mempertahankan trend bullish IHSG harus ditutup mingguan diatas 1,810 (uptrend line) & 1,738 (downward channel). Elliot Wave memperlihatkan IHSG dalam minor wave motive 5 – dalam subwave wave intermediate 3 dalam siklus koreksi wave 4 untuk kisaran target 2,150/2,390.
Resistance: 2037.92/1993.15/1974.07/1954.99. PP 1903.62
Support : 1884.54/1865.46/1839.78/1814.09
(Perkiraan Range Pekan Ini 1,860-1,995)

Week Ahead: Stock Gains May Be Harder to Come By

By: Patti Domm
Executive Editor

The trend for stocks is higher, yet gains in June may be harder to come by unless economic data perks up. Stocks scored a third month of gains in May, with the S&P 500 up more than 5.3 percent. May was a good month for all types of risk assets. Emerging stock markets flourished, and commodities soared. The key Reuters CRB index if 19 commodities was up 13.8 percent, its best monthly gain in 35 years. Oil had its best month in 10 years, jumping nearly 30 percent to $66.31 per barrel. As riskier assets won out, the dollar lost ground. The dollar index was down 6.5 percent, its worst month in at least 25 years. A busy calendar of economic news awaits investors in the week ahead, including the important May jobs report Friday.

Before that, General Motors is expected to file its much anticipated bankruptcy Monday; auto sales are reported Tuesday, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on the economy and budget before Congress Wednesday.Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner meets with Chinese officials early in the week on his first official trip to China.President Obama travels to the Middle East, stopping in Saudi Arabia Wednesday and delivering a major speech in Cairo Thursday on America's relationship with the Muslim world.

Whither Stocks
The stock market will continue to look over its shoulder at the weakening dollar and Treasury market, where rates moved up sharply in the past week. By Friday though, the rate runup was in reverse, and some yields were at levels close to the week earlier level. The 10-year's yield Friday was at 3.47 percent, below the key technical level of 3.50 and well below the 3.70 level it hit earlier in the week. Art Cashin, director of floor trading at UBS, said he's watching the dollar and the Treasury market, where some traders were speculating the Fed would have to increase its purchases to keep rates low."I'm worried about the volatility next week. It could be a very interesting week," he said.Cashin said he's now watching every bit of economic data, and he noted that the Chicago purchasing managers data Friday was surprisingly disappointing."I'm still afraid some of the green shoots are poison ivy," he said.

Citigroup chief U.S. equities strategist Tobias Levkovich said he believes the market's current uptrend is in tact, and stocks could see gains of another 10 to 15 percent before the current run is over."I still see them rising. Valuation still looks good to us," said Levkovich, in an interview.He said his sentiment indicator still shows investors are skeptical about the rally."While not as freaked out, investors are not as frightened but they are still pretty skeptical. We've gone from very fearful to skeptical and we haven't gotten to bullish. That's ok." "Did we get the bulk of this rally behind us? Probably. Is there still maybe a third of it left? Yes," Levkovich said. "Could it overshoot? Probably..to (S&P) 1100, yes. I don't think I'm reaching for the stars when I suggest that. It's not improbable."Levkovich said his favorite sectors include capital goods, energy and transportation, as well as diversified financials and insurers."We're not so thrilled about defensive areas, utilities, telco or pharma biotech," he said.

Commodities have been moving higher on hopes that the global economy is on the road to repair, but the moves also serve as red flags to some traders, who say they could be flashing warning signs about coming inflation.However, so far commodities and energy gains have been positives and have fed the stock market's gains.Energy shares were 10 percent higher in May, and basic materials shares were 5.5 percent higher.
Financials were the best performers, up 13 percent, even after tens of billions of dollars in new stock was issued by the group in the last month.

Econorama
While stock traders say they are not worried about bubbling oil, it is a concern to J.P. Morgan Chief U.S. economist Bruce Kasman. "Oil already seems to be incorporating a lot more growth. As it is front loaded into the price, it does do damage to a U.S. consumer that is still fragile," he said in an interview.Kasman said he is not concerned that the recent move in interest rates will hurt the economy, especially since the bond market firmed and rates fell late in the week."There are risks around interest rates going up, but I don't think that we've seen up to now enough to get me worked up from a macro point of view. If we stopped here, and we certainly rallied in the last day or two, I would say it's not a big deal in the context of an economy that starts to recover," he said.In a note, Kasman wrote Friday that the Fed is likely to increase its Treasury purchases at its June 23-24 FOMC meeting.He said the roster of Fed speakers this coming week allows them to provide insight into the Fed's thinking: "in particular, whether the move in rates is viewed primarily as a healthy return of risk appetites or rather, a less benign development for the economy." The big data in the week ahead is the jobs report Friday.

On Monday, there is also personal income and spending, ISM manufacturing and construction data.Pending home sales are Tuesday, as are car sales.ADP's employment report, ISM non manufacturing, and factory orders are released Wednesday morning.
Weekly jobless claims and productivity and costs are reported Thursday. The Bank of England and European Central Bank hold rate meetings Thursday.Consumer credit is Friday.Other economic events in the coming week include Bernanke's testimony. He testifies Wednesday at 10 a.m. before the House Committee on the Budget on current economic conditions, financial conditions and the budget. Geithner is in China Monday and Tuesday. The Treasury Secretary is expected to discuss topics that are of concern to the markets, including the currency relationship, China's appetite for U.S. debt and stimulus spending."Geithner's going to assure them we're following reasonable policies..We're not going to devalue the dollar to promote trade," said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers.

Traders say the bankruptcy of General Motors, even with the big government bailout, has already been absorbed by the markets.But Kasman said it will show up in some of the economic data in coming months, particularly unemployment claims.
He said he expects the auto industry developments are taking 0.50 to 0.75 points off of current quarter GDP growth, which he puts at -0.5 percent.He said a longer term issue for the economy is the government's overall involvement in industry, including GM.He said the government's actions with multiple industries may be setting up the U.S. economy for a long slow recovery where there could be a small bounce out of recession, but then a period of even lower growth."What you're going to get is a recovery that's not going to have enough growth to get your budget deficits and unemployment rate down," he said."If you do this now and you prevent more damaging negative things from happening, you could argue that it helps growth later..But I would suggest that government intervention in terms of what it does to incentives and borrowing costs would be a negative," he said.

There are also plenty of Fed speakers in the coming week.An important speech to watch will be made by New York Fed President William Dudley, who speaks Thursday to a securities industry conference in New York on the Public Private Investment Program at 8 a.m. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks about the economy in Texas Tuesday.Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks in Kentucky Thursday morning.
Bernanke gives opening remarks Thursday morning to a conference on finance and monetary policy in Washington at 8:45 a.m.Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn participates in that conference Friday.What Else to Watch ASCO, the annual convention of oncologists, takes place over the weekend and developments could affect biotech and pharmacy drugs in the coming week.

Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (01-05 JUni 2009)

Date WIB +11 JAM Currency Forecast Previous
Sun
May 31 All Day NZD Bank Holiday
7:30pm
AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 30.1
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales 4.2%
8:30pm AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.0%
9:30pm AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 2.2%
9:30pm AUD Company Operating Profits q/q -4.5% -6.5%
9:30pm JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y -4.2% -3.9%

Mon
Jun 1 All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
2:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y -15.0%
4:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 40.5 40.5
1st-5th GBP Halifax HPI m/m -1.0% -1.7%
4:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 44.1 42.9
8:30am CAD GDP m/m -0.3% -0.1%
8:30am CAD RMPI m/m 6.4% 12.1%
8:30am CAD IPPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.2%
8:30am USD Personal Spending m/m -0.2% -0.2%
8:30am USD Personal Income m/m -0.2% -0.3%
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 42.2 40.1
10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m -1.6% 0.3%
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 35.2 32.0
7:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y 8.0% 8.2%
9:30pm AUD Building Approvals m/m 2.1% 3.5%
9:30pm AUD Current Account -5.4B -6.5B
Tue
Jun 2 12:30am AUD Cash Rate 3.00% 3.00%
12:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement
1:45am CHF GDP q/q -1.4% -0.3%
3:30am CHF SVME PMI 36.5 34.7
4:30am GBP Construction PMI 39.1 38.1
4:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 1.0B 0.9B
4:30am GBP Mortgage Approvals 41K 39K
5:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 9.1% 8.9%
10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.4% 3.2%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 9.1M 9.3M
7:01pm GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 52 50
Tentative GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 1.4%
7:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 39.8
9:30pm AUD GDP q/q -0.2% -0.5%
Wed
Jun 3 4:00am EUR Final Services PMI 44.7 44.7
4:30am GBP Services PMI 49.4 48.7
5:00am EUR PPI m/m -0.9% -0.7%
5:00am EUR Revised GDP q/q -2.5% -2.5%
7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 47.0%
8:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -525K -491K
10:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 45.1 43.7
10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m 0.7% -0.9%
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -5.4M
7:50pm JPY Capital Spending q/y -27.1% -17.3%
9:30pm AUD Trade Balance 1.70B 2.50B
10:30pm AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
11:00pm NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m 2.5%
Thu
Jun 4 5:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.0% -0.6%
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
7:00am GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
7:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00% 1.00%
8:00am USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
8:30am CAD Building Permits m/m -9.2% 23.5%
8:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 620K 623K
8:30am USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 1.2% 0.8%
8:30am USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 3.0% 3.3%
8:45am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
9:00am CAD BOC Rate Statement
9:00am CAD Overnight Rate 0.25% 0.25%
10:00am CAD Ivey PMI 54.3 53.7
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 106B
7:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 36.5
Fri
Jun 5 3:15am CHF CPI m/m 0.2% 0.9%
3:50am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
4:30am GBP PPI Input m/m 0.8% -1.0%
4:30am GBP PPI Output m/m 0.4% 0.6%
7:00am CAD Employment Change -38.4K 35.9K
7:00am CAD Unemployment Rate 8.3% 8.0%
8:30am USD Non-Farm Employment Change -520K -539K
8:30am USD Unemployment Rate 9.2% 8.9%
8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.1%
2:15pm USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks
3:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m -5.9B -11.1B

Emerging Market Stocks Are ‘Overbought’: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Emerging market stocks are “technically overbought” after 12 straight weeks of fund inflows drove the global benchmark index above its 200-day moving average, Morgan Stanley said. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is about 24 percent higher than its 200-day moving average and three standard deviations overbought compared with its three-month average, analysts led by Jonathan Garner wrote in a report. The measure had traded at 56 percent below its 200-day moving average and was three standard deviations oversold last October, the analysts added. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has gained 34 percent this year, outpacing a 3.9 percent gain in the MSCI World Index. Developing countries make up all 10 of the best performing markets among the 93 global indexes tracked by Bloomberg. “Prices have risen very rapidly and valuations are not as attractive versus just a few months ago,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said in the report dated yesterday.

Following its gains this year, the MSCI index for developing countries is now valued at 14.7 times reported earnings, compared with a low of 6.2 times reached in October, according to data tracked by Bloomberg. The index’s price-to- book multiple has also climbed to about 1.8 from the low of 1.1 last year.Emerging-market equity funds drew $2.1 billion in the week to May 27, Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research firm EPFR Global said in a statement yesterday. Net inflows over the past 12 weeks have amounted to about $23 billion, equivalent to the levels seen in 2005 and 2006, Morgan Stanley. “The two most recent episodes when flow momentum reached these levels were June 2008 and October 2007, providing good sell signals,” the strategists said. Garner, Morgan Stanley’s chief Asian and emerging-market strategist, last month reduced his equity allocation to 56 percent of assets from 60 percent, after a rally left valuations less attractive.