(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil’s rally may reach $78 a barrel should prices close above their 200-day moving average, according to technical analysis by PVM Oil Associates Ltd. The July crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to its 200-day mean on May 29, a signal that prices may keep rising, PVM said in a report today. If the contract settles above the rolling average, currently around $66.39 a barrel, crude may proceed to $78.40, the broker said.“There will doubtless by the odd nasty dip on the way higher, but there is a bullish technical backdrop to the market,” London-based PVM Director Robin Bieber said in the report. “The contracts look like they are shaping up for a move to their long-term objectives.”Oil for July settlement last traded at $67.73 a barrel as of 10:26 a.m. London time, having gained 30 percent last month on speculation the global economy is emerging from recession. A close above the 200-day average will first open the way for a move to $76.28, with the potential for a subsequent move to “just above $78,” according to PVM.
On May 7, PVM predicted that oil would rise to $62.65 a barrel in New York as the market retraced part of the 10-year rally that extended from 1998 to 2008, three weeks before crude reached that point.“It’s been a logical progression,” Bieber said in a telephone interview. “In early May it looked like we were going to $62.65, then the next target was the 200-day moving average, and this is the spring-board for the last leg up in this rally.”Contracts for heating oil and gasoline also have potential for further gains if they remain above their five-day moving averages, the report added. July gasoline, currently at 192.89 cents a gallon, can rise to 197.35 if it holds above long-term support points at 192.84 and 187.22, PVM said.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Indonesia Stocks May Rise 19%, Credit Suisse Says
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite index may rise a further 19 percent this year, based on the outlook for the economy and the valuation of its stocks, Credit Suisse Group AG said. The brokerage favors companies including PT United Tractors because of “earnings quality and attractive valuations,” analyst Arief Wana said in a report today. Credit Suisse expects the benchmark measure to rise to 2,276, a 19 percent advance from the close on May 29.Higher commodity prices and lower interest rates helped cushion the impact of the global recession on Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. Private consumption makes up about two-thirds of the economy, which grew 4.4 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in the region.
“We believe that private consumption is not only resilient against the recent downturn, but is more importantly showing a trend of bottoming out,” Wana said. “Indonesian corporates are in good shape.”The stock index has risen 41 percent this year through May 29, the best-performer among Southeast Asian markets. PT Indo Tambangraya Megah and PT Adaro Energy are the preferred coal stocks, Wana said. Crude oil futures advanced 72 percent this year, enhancing the allure of alternative fuels. United Tractors is Indonesia’s biggest heavy equipment seller, which also offers coal mining contracting services.
Interest Rate Cuts
The Indonesian central bank cut its key interest rate six times since December, improving the outlook for loans. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, the second-largest by assets, is the top pick among banks, Wana said. The Jakarta Composite is now valued at 10.9 times next year’s estimate earnings, the lowest in Southeast Asia after Thailand. Credit Suisse, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BNP Paribas SA upgraded Indonesia’s rating to “overweight” last month after elections in April strengthened President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s hold in parliament and raised expectations he will boost economic growth. Yudhoyono named Boediono, a former central bank governor, as his running mate for the July presidential elections.
The “market sees him positively,” Wana said in the report, referring to the president. “Considering that he has a dominant position in the recent parliament votes and that this is his last term, we believe that he will be more decisive.”
PT Semen Gresik and PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Indonesia’s two biggest cement makers, and PT Bumi Resources, Asia’s largest exporter of power-station coal, may benefit from the election theme, he said.
“We believe that private consumption is not only resilient against the recent downturn, but is more importantly showing a trend of bottoming out,” Wana said. “Indonesian corporates are in good shape.”The stock index has risen 41 percent this year through May 29, the best-performer among Southeast Asian markets. PT Indo Tambangraya Megah and PT Adaro Energy are the preferred coal stocks, Wana said. Crude oil futures advanced 72 percent this year, enhancing the allure of alternative fuels. United Tractors is Indonesia’s biggest heavy equipment seller, which also offers coal mining contracting services.
Interest Rate Cuts
The Indonesian central bank cut its key interest rate six times since December, improving the outlook for loans. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, the second-largest by assets, is the top pick among banks, Wana said. The Jakarta Composite is now valued at 10.9 times next year’s estimate earnings, the lowest in Southeast Asia after Thailand. Credit Suisse, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BNP Paribas SA upgraded Indonesia’s rating to “overweight” last month after elections in April strengthened President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s hold in parliament and raised expectations he will boost economic growth. Yudhoyono named Boediono, a former central bank governor, as his running mate for the July presidential elections.
The “market sees him positively,” Wana said in the report, referring to the president. “Considering that he has a dominant position in the recent parliament votes and that this is his last term, we believe that he will be more decisive.”
PT Semen Gresik and PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Indonesia’s two biggest cement makers, and PT Bumi Resources, Asia’s largest exporter of power-station coal, may benefit from the election theme, he said.
Cocoa Shows ‘Explosive Upside Potential’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Cocoa has “explosive upside potential” in coming months as a 10-month triangle formation nears completion, according to Barclays Capital.The September cocoa contract in New York may climb to $3,385 a metric ton if prices exceed February’s high of $2,899, MacNeil Curry, New York-based technical analyst at Barclays, wrote in a report yesterday. Cocoa for September delivery was at $2,608 a ton at 9:30 a.m. in London.
The chocolate ingredient’s price jumped 63 percent in the past two years as global production led by growers in the Ivory Coast and Ghana lagged demand, according to estimates by the International Cocoa Organization. The deficit will be 64,000 tons in the upcoming 2009-10 season, Fortis forecasts.“The combination of the larger, ongoing secular bull trend and the potential completion of a 10-month triangle formation indicates explosive upside potential in the months to come,” Curry wrote.
On a weekly chart, the September cocoa contract has traded between $1,950 a ton in October and $3,327 a ton in July, when the 10-month triangle began, Dhiren Sarin, a Barclays technical analyst in London, said by phone today.“The market has been consolidating for 10 months,” Sarin said. “When you break out of that range, it’s a bullish shift in market psychology, especially since the preceding trend was bullish.”
The chocolate ingredient’s price jumped 63 percent in the past two years as global production led by growers in the Ivory Coast and Ghana lagged demand, according to estimates by the International Cocoa Organization. The deficit will be 64,000 tons in the upcoming 2009-10 season, Fortis forecasts.“The combination of the larger, ongoing secular bull trend and the potential completion of a 10-month triangle formation indicates explosive upside potential in the months to come,” Curry wrote.
On a weekly chart, the September cocoa contract has traded between $1,950 a ton in October and $3,327 a ton in July, when the 10-month triangle began, Dhiren Sarin, a Barclays technical analyst in London, said by phone today.“The market has been consolidating for 10 months,” Sarin said. “When you break out of that range, it’s a bullish shift in market psychology, especially since the preceding trend was bullish.”
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Oilngold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rally extends further to as high as 990.2 so far today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for a retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. Break there will confirm up trend resumption and target 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 865 at 1066.9 next. On the downside, below 977.3 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But above 945.8 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, the break of 967.7 resistance last week confirmed that correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of whole rally from 681 as well as resumption of long term up trend. Having said that, we'd look forward to a break of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone to resume the long term up trend. In such case, next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160.
Nevertheless, a break below 945.8 support will firstly suggest that rise from 865 has completed. More importantly, it will open up the case that that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress for a test of 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) before completion. Hence, the bullish view will be delayed in such case.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rally extends further to as high as 990.2 so far today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for a retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. Break there will confirm up trend resumption and target 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 865 at 1066.9 next. On the downside, below 977.3 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But above 945.8 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, the break of 967.7 resistance last week confirmed that correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of whole rally from 681 as well as resumption of long term up trend. Having said that, we'd look forward to a break of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone to resume the long term up trend. In such case, next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160.
Nevertheless, a break below 945.8 support will firstly suggest that rise from 865 has completed. More importantly, it will open up the case that that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress for a test of 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) before completion. Hence, the bullish view will be delayed in such case.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold |
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally is still in progress and extends further to as high as 68.29 so far, and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 66.24 minor support holds. Sustained break of 55 weeks EMA at 67.32 and 55 months EMA at 68.98 will set the stage for further rise to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, below 66.24 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 59.61 support is needed to suggest that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, short term outlook remains bullish.
In the bigger picture, the question remains on whether the rise from 33.2 represent reversal in trend in crude oil, or it's merely a correction in the larger down trend. But in any case, rise from 33.2 should still be in force as long as 56.07 support holds. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will pave the way to stronger rally to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next, with prospect of extending to key cluster level at 90, (90% retracement at 90.23). On the downside, below 56.07 will be the first signal that rebound from 33.2 has completed and will turn focus to channel support (now at 53.16) for confirmation.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally is still in progress and extends further to as high as 68.29 so far, and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 66.24 minor support holds. Sustained break of 55 weeks EMA at 67.32 and 55 months EMA at 68.98 will set the stage for further rise to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, below 66.24 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 59.61 support is needed to suggest that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, short term outlook remains bullish.
In the bigger picture, the question remains on whether the rise from 33.2 represent reversal in trend in crude oil, or it's merely a correction in the larger down trend. But in any case, rise from 33.2 should still be in force as long as 56.07 support holds. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will pave the way to stronger rally to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next, with prospect of extending to key cluster level at 90, (90% retracement at 90.23). On the downside, below 56.07 will be the first signal that rebound from 33.2 has completed and will turn focus to channel support (now at 53.16) for confirmation.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)