Sunday, June 7, 2009

Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (08-12 Juni 2009)

Date WIB: +11 Jam Currency Forecast Previous
Sun
Jun 7
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
7:50pm
JPY Bank Lending y/y 3.4%
7:50pm
JPY Current Account 0.96T 0.90T
7:50pm
JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 2.6% 2.6%
Mon
Jun 8
1:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 34.0 34.2
1:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 3.6% 3.4%
4:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -30.8 -34.3
6:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 0.0% 3.3%
8:15am CAD Housing Starts 127K 118K

12:30pm USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
7:01pm GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 4.6%
7:01pm GBP RICS House Price Balance -52.0% -59.9%
9:30pm AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m -7.5%
9:30pm AUD NAB Business Confidence -14
Tue
Jun 9
1:00am JPY Leading Indicators 77.3% 76.3%

2:00am EUR German Trade Balance 9.4B 8.9B
2:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -80.4%
2:45am EUR French Trade Balance -4.4B -4.9B
4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y -13.2% -13.6%
6:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m -0.2% 0.0%
Tentative GBP MPC Member Tucker Speaks
10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 48.6
10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m -1.1% -1.6%
6:45pm NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q -3.6% -0.9%
7:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -0.2% -1.3%
7:50pm JPY CGPI y/y -5.1% -3.8%
8:30pm AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -4.3%
9:30pm AUD Home Loans m/m 1.6% 4.9%
Wed
Jun 10
2:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m -0.1% -0.1%
2:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m -0.3% -1.4%
4:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.2% -4.6%
4:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m -0.1% -0.1%
4:30am GBP Trade Balance -6.4B -6.6B
4:30am GBP Industrial Production m/m -0.1% -0.6%
8:30am CAD Trade Balance 0.8B 1.1B
8:30am CAD NHPI m/m -0.3% -0.5%
8:30am USD Trade Balance -28.8B -27.6B
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.9M
12:15pm USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
2:00pm USD Beige Book
2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -176.0B -20.9B
Tentative GBP MPC Member Sentance Speaks
5:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 2.50% 2.50%
5:00pm NZD RBNZ Press Conference
5:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
5:00pm NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
7:01pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate -1.5%
7:50pm JPY Final GDP q/q -4.0% -4.0%
7:50pm JPY Final GDP Price Index y/y 1.1% 1.1%
9:00pm AUD MI Inflation Expectations 2.3%
9:30pm AUD Employment Change -30.0K 27.3K
9:30pm AUD Unemployment Rate 5.7% 5.4%
Thu
Jun 11
2:45am EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q -0.9% -0.9%
4:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
4:30am GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations 2.1%
8:30am CAD Capacity Utilization Rate 71.6% 74.7%
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.5%
8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% -0.4%
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 614K 621K
10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m -1.0% -1.0%
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 124B
1:05pm USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
1:50pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
2:45pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
6:45pm NZD Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.4%
6:45pm NZD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.5%
6:45pm NZD FPI m/m -0.6%
7:01pm GBP BOE Quarterly Bulletin
Fri
Jun 12
12:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m 5.2% 5.2%
1:00am JPY Household Confidence 34.1 32.4
Day 1 ALL G8 Meetings
2:00am EUR German WPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
2:45am EUR French CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
2:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -43.7B
5:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.5% -2.0%
7:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
Tentative GBP MPC Member Fisher Speaks
8:30am USD Import Prices m/m 1.5% 1.6%
9:55am USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 69.0 68.7

9:55am USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8%

11:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
Sat
Jun 13
Day 2 ALL G8 Meetings

Week Ahead: Watching the 'Recovery Trade'

By: Patti Domm
Executive Editor

The stock market's rally could face a critical test in the coming week as the "recovery trade" plays out across financial markets. As market dynamics shift, rising Treasury rates are worrying stock investors, who fear they could slow a recovery and dampen the market's rally.The S&P 500 rose 2.3 percent to 940 in the past week, giving it 11 winning weeks out of the past 13. The Dow climbed 262, or 3 percent, to 8763.The stock market has been rising for weeks now on the theory that improving economic data means recovery is on the horizon. Yet, its response to Friday's better-than-expected jobs report was tepid. The highly-anticipated May employment data did send mixed signals to the markets, as the unemployment rate rose sharply, to 9.4 percent but job losses were way less than expected.

But the the promise of economic recovery in the improving payrolls number drove buyers into the dollar and sellers into Treasurys. The shorter duration Treasurys were particularly hit, resulting in a sudden and dramatic flattening of the yield curve and a quick move up in rates in the 2-year note. The 2-year yield climbed to 1.307 percent, it highest rate since Nov. 7. At the same time, oil, which briefly crossed $70 per barrel Friday, held gains as most commodities weakened. Oil finished the week 3.2 percent higher at $68.44 per barrel. Traders are particularly watching commodities to see if they continue to move higher on the idea that the global economy is improving, but also for fear they are signaling rising inflation. Commodities have been trading opposite in direction to the dollar. But after Friday's about face by the green back, some traders speculated there could be a disconnect between commodities and the dollar, and both could strengthen on the idea that the U.S. economy will be first to recover.

Traders say these cross market trends are important for the week ahead, when there is some key economic data and the auction of about $65 billion in 3-, 10- and 30-year notes. Treasurys have been volatile, and rising yields have been attributed both to an improving economy and supply concerns as a huge amount of Treasury issuance continues to come to market. In Friday's markets, traders said there was speculation the Fed could soon be raising interest rates if the economy is recovering. "People are trying to get way ahead of whether the Fed is going to try to raise rates. I think that's very premature. The economic news is better than expected, but it shouldn't make anyone all that excited," said Brian Edmonds, head of interest rate trading at Cantor, Fitzgerald. Edmonds expects the bond market to drift higher in the coming week, which would push rates lower.

Whither Stocks
BlackRock Vice Chairman Robert Doll says stocks remain positioned to move higher, as fresh cash continues to come into the market every time there is a dip. "The market's behaving much better than I thought it would. I would have thought we'd have a pull back of note. I'm still sticking with the 1,000 S&P (year end) target we had since the beginning of the year," Doll said in a phone interview. "I still think we might see 800 to 850 before we see 1,000.But "there's so much cash on the sidelines that in any kind of pull back, people are waiting to put some money in," said Doll.Doll said one trend that bothers him is the market leadership of lower quality stocks. He notes that while for the first 60 days of the rally, from March 6 to May 6, the S&P 500 was up 38 percent. Yet, the lowest quality decile of names in the index was up 145 percent, and the highest quality rose only 22 percent."Can the market keep going up on the back of low quality companies? My feeling is 'no.' Either the market broadens to high quality names or we need to have a correction," he said.

Many of those "low quality" names were S&P 500 stocks that sold in the single digits after February's drubbing. At one point, about 20 percent of the S&P were trading at single digit levels."The point we are making is we are slowly upgrading the quality of the portfolio...Companies with good free cash flow and strong balance sheets which come out of a whole variety of sectors. Some are in health care, tech and some consumer names, as opposed to some of the deeper cyclicals and financials," Doll said. He said half the companies in the lowest quality tier of the S and P are financials.Doll said he is not concerned about the move in Treasury yields.

Treasury traders mention that concern daily. "I think now the country's mood is going to be if we can't afford to do all this, and we're watching rates spike higher then let's cut back on what we're trying to do right now. I think the markets have told (Fed Chairman Ben) Bernanke and anyone else who is paying attention that the U.S. can't have uncontrolled deficits," said Edmonds.

Dollar Dynamic
Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex.com, said the dollar's move Friday, and in the past week, was very important. "The dollar has put in a significant bottom against most every currency," said Dolan.He said the dollar was supported early in the week by comments from finance ministers from China, Japan, South Korea, and India who indicated support for the dollar's reserve status. Also, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's trip to China in the past week was reassuring, as were comments from Bernanke that the U.S. needs to use fiscal restraint on spending and deficits."The five percent of dollar weakness that we'd seen in the last couple of weeks was based on U.S. funding abilities, (concern about) the credit rating of the United States and overall negatives from the massive U.S. deficits. That is what's vanished," he said.
Ferry too said the dollar's turn around Friday was significant. "The dollar has exited the trade that was based on debasement, and now entered into a world of future interest rate differentials," said Ferry.

Econorama
The big data point economists are watching in the coming week is retail sales, reported Thursday."Both of the last two months were disappointing. We're looking for a bit of a rebound, not especially strong, but certainly a little bit firmer than in March and April," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital. "You saw a little bit of a bounce in auto sales. The headline number is going to be boosted a little by gasoline," he said.
Stanley said monthly chain store sales, reported by retailers this past Thursday, told a tale of consumer behavior. "What I would take away from the chain stores numbers is the further up the price ladder, the worse things are for you. That's indicative of the economic stress...even within individual stores, discretionary categories are doing worse, and the things that are doing better are staples and non discretionary. Both of these observations are hardly surprising and are easily explained."

Otherwise, the small business NFIB survey is reported Tuesday, as is wholesale trade. The Fed's beige book on the economy and international trade are reported Wednesday. Weekly jobless claims and business inventories are reported Thursday, and import prices and consumer sentiment are released Friday. The Fed, in the coming week, is also expected to report on which banks will be able to repay the funds they borrowed from the government's $750 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.Fed speakers include Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo who speaks on financial regulation Monday. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks Wednesday on the current crisis, while Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the economy and Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks on consumer protection the same day. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks Thursday on the economy.

What to Watch
The Apple developers conference is underway in San Francisco Monday, and the big question is whether Apple CEO Steve Jobs will attend. Jobs has taken a medical leave from the company [AAPL 144.67 0.93 (+0.65%) ] and was expected to return to work this month.
The American Diabetes Association meets over the weekend. A number of reports should be released over the weekend and Monday.

Commodities Downtrend Is Over, BarCap Says: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Commodities, up 10 percent this year, are set to extend gains after breaking through a key chart level, according to technical analysis by Phil Roberts at Barclays Capital. Raw materials measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index passed the 200-day moving average June 1, signaling an end to the downtrend that resulted in last year’s record 36 percent slump, Roberts said today by phone from London. The gauge comprises 19 commodities from gasoline to cotton.

The index gained almost 14 percent in May, the biggest monthly advance since 1974, and is little changed in June at 253.05. Hedge funds and other speculators’ net long positions in 20 U.S. commodities, as monitored by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, rose to the highest level since July in the week ended May 26.“The downtrend is over,” Roberts said. “It could come down to 245 as a correction and still be going higher.”The next resistance level, a cluster of sell signals based on patterns in price charts, is 278, according to Roberts.

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold
Crude oil rose further to as high as 70.32 last week but retreats mildly after touching 55 weeks and 55 months EMAs. While upside momentum is seen diminishing mildly, there is no indication of topping yet. Further rally is still in favor and sustained trading above the mentioned EMAs will path the way to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, though, break of inner channel support (now at 64.53) will argue that rise from 43.83 has completed and focus will turn to 59.61 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, the question remains on whether the rise from 33.2 represent reversal in trend in crude oil, or it's merely a correction in the larger down trend. But in any case, rise from 33.2 should still be in force as long as 56.07 support holds. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will pave the way to stronger rally to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, below 56.07 will be the first signal that rebound from 33.2 has completed and will turn focus to trend line support (now at 53.59) for confirmation.

In the long term picture, note that fall from 147.27 is treated as a correction, or part of the correction/consolidation to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. Downside target of 17.12/37.0 support zone is already met and the correction might have completed already. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA will add some credence to this case and should target next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23). This will remain the preferred case as long as crude oil continues to stay above the trend line support form 33.2 low.

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold
Gold rose further to as high as 992.1 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week as some consolidation could be seen. But after all, as long as channel support (now at 951.0) holds, recent rally is still in favor to continue. Above 992.1 will target 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. However, note that break of the channel will argue that rise from 865.6 has completed and will turn focus to 915.2 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, rise from 865 is tentatively treated as resumption of whole rally from 681, as well as resumption of long term up trend. Firm break break of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone will confirm this case and target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 next. However, note that a break below 915.2 support will indicate that rise from 865 has completed. More importantly, this will suggest that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress for a test of 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) before completion. Hence, the bullish view will be delayed in such case.

In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.

Kalender Ekonomi & Event


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