Dollar Index, Complex Wave IV?

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Dollar Index

4 Hour Chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 78.33, 79.16, and 81.47. Looking for: Breakthrough 79.16

On the dollar index chart we have the same story as on all of the major pairs; The market could be forming a more complex wave IV so long prices will remain trapped between the 78.33 lows and 81.47 highs. Traders with a short bias need to wait on a break through 79.16 and then 78.33, which will probably be the key for move into the lower wave V targets.

Daily FX Technical Commentary

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Expect a downside probe today in what we see as an A, B, C-type correction from June's high at 1.4339. Others will be pointing to a potential interim top and a potential 'head-and-shoulders' formation.Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.3920; stop well below 1.3900. Short term target 1.4130/1.4170. Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3913 " 1.4032
1.3879 1.413
1.3839 1.4178*
1.3800* 1.425
1.3725 1.4339*
GBPUSD
Comment: Some will probably be pointing to a potential 'double top' against this month's high at 1.6664, probably the very same people who have missed the pound's move this year. We shall allow for more consolidation under 1.6600 this week, but expect a new interim base to form around the 1.6000 area. Strategy: Possibly attempt very small longs at 1.6335; stop well below 1.6200. First target 1.6600. Direction of Trade: →↗Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6300 " 1.6444
1.62 1.6475
1.612 1.66
1.6 1.6622
1.594 1.6664*
USDJPY
Comment: Still hovering slightly unsteadily either side of a rapidly thinning Ichimoku 'cloud', above moving averages which have just crossed to bullish. Expect yet more cautious random small swings today and an upside probe some time this week.
Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 98.50; stop above 99.25. First target 97.50, maybe 97.00. Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
98.10 " 98.58
97.47 98.85
97 99.00*
96.65 99.2
96.5 99.8
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus dollar pair continued to trade to the downside within a minor descending channel with a key support at 1.3935 which is also a neckline for a bearish technical pattern. We expect the pair to decline on the intraday basis to reach 1.3775 at the very least before determining the next short term trend whether to the upside or decline to target 1.3340. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3625 and the key resistance at 1.4470. The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
Support: 1.3935, 1.3890, 1.3800, 1.3775, 1.3745
Resistance: 1.4025, 1.4060, 1.4120, 1.4175, 1.4235
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.3935 with targets at 1.3775 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.4025
GBP
The Cable is also being pressured to the downside as it faces a support level at 1.6325 where we expect the pair to decline on the intraday basis in an attempt to breach the above mentioned support and target 1.6120 and 1.6020 respectively. The downside trend will remains as far as this level remains intact. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.6020 and the key resistance at 1.6685. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.6830
Support: 1.6325, 1.6285, 1.6215, 1.6175, 1.6120
Resistance: 1.6425, 1.6485, 1.6520, 1.6580, 1.6640
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.6325 with targets at 1.6120 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.6425
JPY
The USD/JPY pair was able to build a solid base at the support level (previously breached key resistance for the descending channel) to reach 98.55 forming the neckline for a bullish technical pattern targeting the 100 mark. The short term trend is adjusting to the upside where reaching the technical targets for the pattern may take the pair to 105.00 as far as 96.80 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 94.50 and the key resistance at 100.70. The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60.
Support: 97.90, 97.45, 97.15, 96.80, 95.90
Resistance: 98.55, 98.90, 99.40, 100.00, 100.70
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 98.55 with targets at 100.00 and stop loss with four hour closing below 97.90
CHF
The Dollar versus Swissy pair continued to pressure the key resistance for the downside channel where it breached it successfully to build a solid base at 1.0775 and head towards a new pivot resistance at 1.0840 where we expect the pair is to incline breaking this resistance and initially target 1.0980. Note that we must follow the price action at the latter level where further inclines may alter the short term trend to the upside with targets at 1.1165. For this incline to occur, the pair must breach 1.0840 as far as 1.0770 remains intact.The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0585 and the key resistance at 1.1165. The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245
Support: 1.0770, 1.0745, 1.0665, 1.0640, 1.0570
Resistance: 1.0840, 1.0915, 1.0980, 1.1020, 1.1080
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.0840 with taregts at 1.0980 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.0770.

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Stocks Trapped in a Range

By: Patti Domm
Executive Editor

Stocks could have a hard time snapping out of their current trading range, which seems to be getting narrower and narrower.In the coming week, there are a few catalysts for markets in inflation and housing data, and in Friday's quadruple expiration of futures and options. Traders are also watching the dollar and the corresponding moves in commodities, particularly oil, which at a 7-month high is beginning to worry stock investors.The aftermath of the Iranian presidential election; the meeting of G-8 finance ministers in Italy over the weekend, and a meeting between the BRIC countries in Russia Tuesday are also being watched for their potential impact on markets.Stocks ended the past week barely changed from the prior week's close, but the Dow managed to finish Friday in positive territory for the year. The Dow added just 0.4 percent to 8799, while the S&P 500 added 0.65 percent for the week to finish at 946. Investors, meanwhile, bid up some of the more defensive sectors, with utilities gaining 3.8 percent, as the week's top performer. Telecoms were also a winner, up nearly 2 percent, and energy stocks were up 2.3 percent, rising with the price of oil.

Stocks have defied the conventional view and have paused, but not pulled back, as many traders were expecting. Now that the quarter end approaches, some traders say stocks could be supported by fund managers who still need to show good returns for the quarter but also face pressure as others sell to lock in gains. The result could be continued sideways trading."You could have buyers go on strike because they know everyone's waiting for a pull back, and you have sellers not pulling the trigger," said Art Hogan of Jefferies."I think the market is going to have a very good quarter, barring anything crazy. I think there's a lot of pressure to be invested and that means a lot of buying on the dips," said Richard Cripps, managing director of portfolio strategy at Stifel Nicolaus.Cripps said, however, watch out for earnings season. He said the next big driver for stocks, capable of triggering a pull back could come at the beginning of July, when companies start to show their hand on the second quarter's performance.

"I think one has to say the probabilities are good that you have some kind of pull back here," he said. "The pullback would be normal, and it's not the end of the world after a very sharp rally...We're on track to have an improvement in forward 12 months earnings expectations. The changing expectations and the change in stock prices are ultimately what synchronizes. If we continue to see improvement in earnings, we have to think any type of pullback is technical in nature."He doesn't expect to see the market retest its March lows, but the downturn could still sting. "I do not think we retest the low, but I do think we could do 50 percent of the gain...if you want 100 years worth of history to speak to you, I would say that we are looking at a very mature, oversold market rally, coming off extreme levels," he said."If that's something you don't want to be in a position to experience, you should be selling here," Cripps said.

Volatile Treasurys
The lack of volatility in stocks in the past week was made up by heightened action in foreign exchange and the Treasury market, where the bench mark 10-year saw its yield rise to 4 percent. The 10-year ended Friday, yielding 3.78 percent, as buyers moved in after the Treasury's successful 30-year auction Thursday. "I think we will calm down, and we will see slight declines in yield. It would be nice to see the 10-year yielding 3.5 percent. That would calm down a lot of the concern about the mortgage market," said Zane Brown, fixed income strategist with Lord Abbett. The move up in the 10-year's yield in the last several weeks is a particular concern since it corresponds to mortgage rates, which have been moving higher.Brown said the 10-year and 30-year will probably come under pressure again the next time Treasury auctions long-dated issues, in three week's time. In the meantime, the market should be relatively steady early this week and then faces possible volatility if economic data disappoints at the end of the week. He said he is paying special attention to Thursday's weekly jobless claims and leading indicators Thursday.

He also said Tuesday's meeting of BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—could have more impact than what is likely to come out of the G-8. From G-8, "people will be looking for expressions of concern about the level of stimulus and just some evidence that the leaders are thinking about how they unwind all the stimulus they've flooded the market with," said Brown."People will read with interest about the other meeting. The BRIC countries, that's really giving people a great deal of concern when some of the key buyers say they are more interested in non-U.S. paper," he said. A lack of interest from key buyers in U.S. Treasurys would pressure yields, and therefore mortgage rates, hurting a housing recovery. Brazil, China and Russia have all questioned the dollar's reserve status.The dollar was higher Friday after a volatile week. The dollar lost 0.25 percent to the euro for the week, finishing at a level of $1.3999 per euro. The dollar lost 0.5 percent against the yen.

Bubbling Oil
Crude oil [US@CL.1 72.25 -0.43 (-0.59%) ] rose 5.3 percent in the past week, ending the week at $72.04. On Thursday, when oil touched $73, stock traders began to show concern about the impact on equities and the economic recovery. The stock market has been a beneficiary of the recent run up in commodities. "The price of a barrel of oil crossed the line this week. Now it's not a driver of the market," said Hogan. Oil traders will be watching the outcome of the Iranian election. On Friday, both President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi were claiming victory. Cripps said oil prices are now at a level where they could be a problem for companies. "The number we reached last time when we turned the corner was right in the $60 to $70 range. That's what the various companies were saying. Has that changed? It would probably work to their detriment sooner," he said.

Whither Stocks?
Tim Smalls of Execution LLC said he believes stocks could trade quietly and trend lower in the coming week. "I don't think this is going to be the big pull back. What we're talking about is the longer it takes to get through the range, the more it means we could go below the range," he said. Smalls said its possible the S&P 500 could take aim at the 927 support level, then the 911 level, which is the 200-day moving average."This is the tenth consecutive day where the market has had a less than a 1 percent move," Smalls said Friday.

Patrick Kernen, who traders S&P 500 options, said the options market right now suggests low volatility. "Options are implying right now that we go out at the end of the month with the S and P between 900 and 980," said Kernen. Stock traders point to the current trading range on the S&P 500 as being between 920 and 950."It feels like we're in a market of indifference," said Kernen, who trades with Cardinal Capital. "I would not be surprised with everything expiring that we would see some gyrations next week." He said, however, options are suggesting small swings in the S&P, compared to those of recent months. "The market is implying we won't see a move greater than 23.5 points a day on the S&Ps in the next five days."

Econorama
There's a steady stream of economic data in the week ahead, including inflation readings and housing data. The PPI is reported Tuesday and CPI is Wednesday. The National Association of Home Builders is reported Monday, while housing starts are Tuesday. The Empire State survey is Monday, and the Philadelphia Fed releases its survey Thursday. Leading indicators and weekly jobless claims are reported Thursday.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner appears before Senate and House committees Thursday to detail the Obama Administration's plan for restructuring financial regulation.

There are plenty of Fed speakers in the week ahead, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who speaks Wednesday on community development financial institutions at the Operation HOPE Global Financial Literacy Summit. On Monday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on the economic outlook, and Fed Gov. Elizabeth Duke speaks on the Fed's response to the financial crisis at the Women in Housing and Finance Annual Meeting.Fed, Gov. Kevin Warsh speaks on economic policy and financial markets developments at the Institute of International Bankers Annual Meeting in New York. Evans speaks Wednesday on the current crisis in Chicago, and

Earnings Central
There are a handful of companies reporting earnings in the week ahead.
Best Buy [BBY 38.55 1.32 (+3.55%) ], Smithfield Foods [SFD 11.92 0.10 (+0.85%) ] and Adobe Systems [ADBE 30.15 -0.25 (-0.82%) ] report Tuesday. FedEx [FDX 54.39 -1.77 (-3.15%) ] reports Wednesday.Carnival [CCL 24.17 0.44 (+1.85%) ] and Smucker [SJM 44.10 0.32 (+0.73%) ] report Thursday, as does Research in Motion [RIMM 83.02 -2.42 (-2.83%) ].

What Else to Watch
The Detroit Economic Club Monday hosts the National Summit in Detroit about the future of manufacturing, technology, energy and the environment. CEOs from a range of industries are expected to attend. Also Monday, President Barack Obama talks about health care reform at the American Medical Association convention in Chicago.

Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global 15 - 19 Juni 2009

Date WIB + 11 Jam Currency Forecast Previous
Mon
Jun 15 3:15am CHF PPI m/m 0.1% -0.2%
5:00am EUR Employment Change q/q -0.3%
7:00am EUR Buba President Weber Speaks
8:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -1.5% -2.7%
8:30am CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 0.1% 6.3%
8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index -4.8 -4.6
8:45am USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 58.1B 55.8B
9:30am USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
10:00am USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 17 16
6:00pm USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
9:30pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate 0.10% 0.10%
Tue
Jun 16 Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
3:15am CHF Industrial Production q/q -11.7% 0.1%
4:30am GBP CPI y/y 1.9% 2.3%
4:30am GBP RPI y/y -1.5% -1.2%
4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y 1.5% 1.5%
5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 35.1 31.1
5:00am EUR CPI y/y 0.0% 0.0%
5:00am EUR Core CPI y/y 1.6% 1.8%
5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 34.1 28.5
8:30am CAD Labor Productivity q/q -0.2% -0.5%
8:30am USD Building Permits 0.50M 0.50M

8:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
8:30am USD Housing Starts 0.48M 0.46M
8:30am USD PPI m/m 0.6% 0.3%
9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 68.5% 69.1%
9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m -0.7% -0.5%
11:30am EUR Buba President Weber Speaks
1:15pm USD FOMC Member Warsh Speaks
9:00pm AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.3%
9:30pm AUD Housing Starts q/q -3.1% -9.9%
Wed
Jun 17 1:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report
1:45am CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
3:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.5% 1.2%
4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 61.8K 57.1K
4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 0-0-9 0-0-9
4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 0.2% -0.4%
4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 7.3% 7.1%
5:00am CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -3.9
5:00am EUR Trade Balance -1.5B -2.1B
8:30am CAD Leading Index m/m -0.6% -1.1%
8:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m -0.8% -0.6%
8:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.3%
8:30am USD CPI m/m 0.3% 0.0%
8:30am USD Current Account -85B -133B
9:00am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -4.4M
Tentative GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
9:30pm AUD RBA Monthly Bulletin
Thu
Jun 18 3:30am CHF Libor Rate 0.25% 0.25%
3:30am CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
3:30am CHF SNB Press Conference
3:30am CHF SNB Financial Stability Report
4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.02B 0.08B
4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.9%
4:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 18.9B 8.5B
4:30am GBP Prelim M4 Money Supply m/m 0.7% 0.2%

6:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -45 -56
7:00am CAD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
7:00am CAD CPI m/m 0.4% -0.1%
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 610K 601K
10:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -17.8 -22.6
10:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.8% 1.0%
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 106B
1:30pm USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
2:15pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
3:30pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
7:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Fri
Jun 19 2:00am EUR German PPI m/m -0.2% -1.4%
4:00am EUR Italian Unemployment Rate 7.3% 6.9%
8:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m -0.1% -0.2%
8:30am CAD Retail Sales m/m -0.2% 0.3%