Kalender Ekonomi Global (29 Juni - 03 Juli 2009)

Tgl WIB Negara Data & Event Forecast Range Previous Actual
29/06 06.50 JP IP Prelim M/M May 7.0% 3.6/9.4 5.9% 5.9%
Retail Sales Y/Y May -2.8% -4.1/-1.0 -2.9% -2.8%
15.30 UK Consumer Credit May 0.25B 0.1/0.5 0.31B
Mortgage Application May 46.0K 45.0/49.0 43.2K
Mortgage Lending May 1.1B 0.8/1.3 0.973B
16.00 EZ Business Climate Juny -3.0 -3.1/-2.97 -3.17
Consumer Sentiment Juny -30.0 -31.0/-29.0 -31.0
Economic Sentiment Juny 70.8 69.9/72.0 69.3
Industrial Sentiment Juny -32.0 -33.0/-30.0 -34.0
Service Sentiment Juny -23.0 -24.0/-21.0 -23.0
19.30 US Chicago Fed NA May N/F - -2.06
23.00 US Midwest Manufacturing May N/F - 81.0
30/06 06.15 JP Manufacturing PMI Juny N/F - 46.6
06.30 JP House Hold Spending May -1.6% -3.0/0.3 -1.3%
Job/Application May 0.45 0.42/0.47 0.46
Unemployment May 5.2% 5.1/5.3 5.0%
12.00 JP Construction Order Y/Y May N/F - -25.9%
House Start Y/Y May -27.0% -31.8/-23.0 -32.4%
13.00 UK Nationwide HousePrice M/M Juny -0.4% -1.5/0.5 1.2%
Nationwide HousePrice Y/Y Juny -10.8-11.7/-10.0 -11.3%
15.00 DE Unemployment Rate SA Juny 8.3% 8.2/8.5 8.2%
Unemployment Change SA Juny 40.0K 6.0/90.0 1.0K
15.30 UK GDP Final Q/Q Q1 -2.1% -2.2/-1.9 -1.9%
GDP Final Y/Y Q1 -4.4% -4.4/-4.1 -4.1%
16.00 EZ HICP Flash Y/Y Juny -0.2% -0.4/0.0 0.0%
20.00 US NAPM – NY Juny N/F - 361.6
20.45 US Chicago PMI Juny 39.0 32.0/44.0 34.9
21.00 US Consumer Confidence Juny 55.0 49.5/60.0 54.9
01/07 06.50 JP Tankan Capex Q2 -6.9% -13.6/-3.1 -6.6%
Tankan Big Manufacturing Q2 -43.0 -52.0/-37.0 -58.0
Tankan Big Non-Manufacturing Q2 -27.0 -35.0/-19.0 -31.0
14.53 DE Manufacturing PMI Juny 40.5 40.5/40.7 39.6
14.58 EZ Manufacturing PMI Juny 42.4 42.2/42.7 40.7
15.28 UK CIPS Manufacturing PMI Juny 46.5 45.0/48.0 45.4
19.15 US ADP Employment Juny -392.0K -500.0/-280.0 -532.0
21.00 US Construction Spending May -0.5% -1.5/1.4 0.8%
ISM Manufacturing May 44.5 42.0/46.8 42.8
Pending Homes May 0.3% -3.0/7.0 6.7%

Faktor Teknikal Yang Overbought Dapat Batasi Kenaikan IHSG Terbatas Pekan Ini

Market Review

Dominasi faktor eksternal yang negatif di awal pekan dan kondisi teknikal (bearish reversal weekly), telah menjatuhkan IHSG ke level 1,888,88 dari level pembukaan 1,996.13 (22/06). Imbas penurunan harga minyak (capai level $ 66.25/barel) diikuti penurunan harga komoditas lainnya (emas, timah, nikel, kakao, cpo) pekan lalu, diikuti pelemahan rupiah ke Rp 10,625 terhadap dolar berkat tingginya permintaan dolar AS dari penyesuaian portofolio fund manager asing dan pembayaran hutang korporasi menjelang tutup kuartalan, telah menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham di awal pekan, mendorong aksi profit taking saham di seluruh sektor di BEI. Tetapi meredanya kekhawatiran kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan September (paska FOMC AS), reboundnya indeks saham regional, penguatan rupiah ke Rp 10,130/USD dan laporan kemenangan Ito Warsito sebagai Direktur Utama Bursa Efek Indonesia disambut positif oleh pemain saham lokal, berperan picu technical rebound saham (Rabu-Kamis), mendorong kenaikan IHSG sebesar 9.5% untuk kembali berada di atas level 2,000. IHSG mengalami 49.72 poin (+2.5%) pekan lalu, ditutup di 2040.19, merupakan kenaikan pekan ke-5 dalam 6 pekan terakhir. IHSG melemah 3.978 poin (0.195%) menjadi 2,040.19 hari Jumat (26/06).

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific menguat 2.2% menjadi 103.66 pekan lalu, dipimpin oleh kenaikan saham konsumsi, teknologi dan finansial di tengah optimisme ekonomi global akan segera pulih. Indeks MSCI, mengikis penurunan 3.5% di pekan sebelumnya. Pernyataan FOMC dan prediksi OECD ikut memperkuat momentum kenaikan indeks regional.

IHSG Outlook

Potensi kenaikan IHSG pekan ini masih terbuka, karena perkiraan data inflasi RI bulan Juni (dirilis 01/07) diperkirakan menurun dibandingkan bulan Mei, memicu spekulasi penurunan suku bunga BI (perkiraan -25 bsp menjadi 6.75%, 03 Juli), hasil survei dari Dow Jones Newswire pekan lalu menunjukkan sebagian besar manajer investasi asing memberikan rekomendasi Overweight untuk IHSG (Morgan Stanley upgrade IHSG menjadi neutral-weight dan underweight), potensi penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan pekan lalu Rp 10,200) setelah sejumlah bank investasi pekan lalu merekomendasi pembelian rupiah (Goldman Sachs, Barclays Capital, Standard Chartered Bank) dan menjelang penerbitan Samurai Bond sebesar US$ 1 miliar dalam waktu dekat, dapat mendorong inflow, window dressing jelang tutup semester 2009, trend jangka pendek IHSG & jangka menengah masih bullish.

Meski potensi kenaikan IHSG dibatasi faktor trend bullish harga minyak (teknikal oversold; target $ 73/77) dapat membebani RAPBN 2009 (average ICP Jan-Juni 2009 di $ 51.53) karena kekhawatiran kenaikan subsidi BBM, kepemilikan asing di SUN hingga 25 Juni turun 3.03 triliun (menjadi Rp 85.97 triliun), laporan EPFR Global bahwa stock fund di pasar emerging mengalami net outflow (-US$ 1.87 miliar) di pekan lalu, diikuti perkiraan data unemployment AS (02/07) menunjukkan kenaikan ke 9.6% (tertinggi 25-tahun), dapat membebani kinerja IHSG pekan ini.

Stock Picks: Average last week +12% (15 saham). Potential yield >+10%, risk <10%

* Buy on weakness (-5 – -10%): Bakrie (BUMI/BNBR/DEWA/ELTY), BMTR
MNCN, HEXA, INKP, PTBA, ASII, INTP, SMGR, BBRI, BMRI, INCO, ANTM.
Global Outlook

Di awal pekan ini, indeks saham global berpotensi menguat berkat perkiraan fund manager global akan melakukan window dressing menjelang tutup buku semester 1 2009, diikuti spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global (IMF akan upgrade ekonomi negara maju, OECD upgrade pertumbuhan ekonomi 30 negara anggota) menjelang liburan di akhir pekan (Bank Holiday AS) dan potensi pelemahan dolar AS setelah Gubernur PBOC China menekankan kembali kekhawatiran mengenai isu diversifikasi cadangan devisa dari mata uang dolar AS, berpotensi angkat harga komoditas (isu geopolitik di Iran dan Nigeria memberikan support untuk minyak). Meski di akhir pekan diperkirakan terjadi aksi profit-taking menjelang Tankan Jepang, ECB meeting (pertahankan suku bunga 1.0%), data payroll & unemployment AS (perkiraan lebih buruk), mengikuti laporan penutupan 5 bank AS di akhir pekan (total 45 bank tutup di 2009) dan foreclosure perumahan di AS meningkat, dapat bebani indeks global.

Technical Analysis
Potensi kenaikan IHSG pekan ini terbatas, meski candle weekly menunjukkan pola bullish harami dan MACD bullish, tetapi indikator ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan dari overbought, stcohastic overbought, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas pekan ini. Hal tersebut mengikuti hitungan Elliot Wave, alternatif wave 3 dapat terbentuk jika IHSG gagal ditutup diatas 2,136 (upper channel 3) untuk koreksi ke target 1,926/1,778 (maksimal target) dalam beberapa pekan mendatang, yang seharusnya merupakan koreksi wave 4. Tetapi jika indeks ditutup diatas 2,136 dapat arahkan IHSG ke target 2,165 (61.8 % FR 2835-1089)/2,361 (upper channel 4) yang merupakan sekanario alternatif wave extend impulse 5 dalam 3, selama bertahan diatas 1891 (support channel).
Resistance: 2264.15/2175.56/2141.72/2107.87. PP 1998.38
Support : 1964.54/1930.69/1875.95/1821.20
(Perkiraan Range Pekan Ini 1,930-2,140)

(Bisa didapatkan di UBI Newsletter 29 Juni 2009 vol 234)
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id (code TF)

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Indeks Regional Masih Mendapatkan Support Dari Trend Bullish Jangka Pendek

SSIU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9745 9765 9920 9665 10000 9810 10100 9390 9500 9650 9915 10035 10180
Commentary

Di chart 4 jam, trend jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 masih menunjukkan trend netral, setelah indeks ditutup diatas resistance line di 9,691 (projection 61.8% FE), dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target resistance berikutnya di 9892 (23.6 fibonacci retracement)/9985 (projection 61.8 FE). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan kenaikan, stochastic crossing up, dan MACD berada dalam teritorial positif, dan indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya dapat mendorong technical rebound hari ini. Penutupan indeks dibawah 9677 (trendline support), dapat membebani kinerja trend bearish indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9700-10000.

Rekomendasi : Buy 9730 target 9880 stop 100p, sell 9950 target 9680 stop 100p, sell break 9660 target 9,500 stop 100p.

KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
178.50 176.5 179.7 175.5 181.2 178.9 182.2 168.9 171.7 175.1 181.3 184.1 187.5
Commentary

Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15-172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD netral dan stochastic crossing up, ADX terlihat flat, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi technical rebound hari ini terbatas. Potensi kenaikan indeks terbatas gagal ditutup diatas level 180.16 (23.6 FR). Ditutup diatas level tersebut target 184.10 (double top di chart 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 172.15, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 176.00-181.00

Rekomendasi : Sell 180.50 target 178.00 stop 50p, buy break 180.80 target 184.00 stop 100p. sell 178.00 target 176.00. Sell break 172.00 target 170.50 stop 100p. buy 176.40 target 178.50 stop 100p. (+100p).

HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18319 18125 18438 18025 18594 18281 18694 17738 17872 18095 18452 18586 18809
Commentary

Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan pola uptrend channel dan menunjukkan Trend berbalik bullish dari netral setelah ditutup diatas 18,403 (23.6% FR). Indikator teknikal ADX meningkat dan stochastic crossing up, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial positif, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound lebih lanjut. Daily candle menunjukkan spinning top, seharusnya mendukung laju kenaikan hari ini terbatas. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave b / (ii) dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 18.100-18.700

Rekomendasi : Sell 18940 target 18400 (or closing) stop 50 p. buy break 18340 target 18700 stop 100 poin. buy 17990 target 18400 stop 100p. Buy 17650 target 17950 stop 60p. (+280p).

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Jun 27 09 10:22 ET
Comex Gold (GC)

Gold fell to as low as 913.2 last week but drew support from 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 and rebounded. Break of 944.6 resistance argues that fall from 992.1 has completed with bullish convergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. We now turn cautiously bullish in gold in near term and expect further rise towards 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 next. However, a break below 927.6 minor support will in turn suggest that recovery from 913.2 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 shifts favors back to the case that fall from 992.1 is merely correction to rise from 865. In other words, such rally is still in progress and break of 992.1 will target retest of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Sustained break there will confirm lon term up trend resumption. On the downside, note that break of 913.2 will turn favor back to the case that fall from 992.1 is part of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed and should then target 865 level before resuming rise from 681.

In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Jun 27 09 10:21 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's fall from 73.23 extended to as low as 66.25 last week but rebounded strongly. Nevertheless, such rebound was limited at 71.29, below 72.55 resistance and crude oil weakened towards the end of the week. With an intraday top in place, initial outlook is neutral this week. But after all, note that with 72.55 resistance intact, correction from 73.23 is still in favor to continue. Below 68.04 minor support will flip intraday back to the downside. Further break of 66.25 low will target 38.2% retracement of 45.44 to 73.23 at 62.61 next.

In the bigger picture, daily MACD's break of its up trend line provides another signal that rise from 33.20 has completed. But after all, there is no confirmation yet. As long as rising channel support holds (now at 58.08) the medium term rise from 33.2 is still in favor to continue. Break of 72.55 resistance will be an early sign that such up trend is resuming for 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. However, firm break of the channel will be an important sign that whole rise from 33.2 has finished and will turn focus to 45.44/54.66 support zone for confirmation.

In the long term picture, note that fall from 147.27 is treated as a correction, or part of the correction/consolidation to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. Downside target of 17.12/37.0 support zone is already met and the correction might have completed already. Sustained trading above mentioned 55 weeks and 55 months EMA, which crude oil has not yet accomplished yet, will add some credence to this case and should target next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23). This will remain the preferred case as long as crude oil continues to stay above 54.66 support. On the downside, firm break of 45.44/54.66 support zone will indicate that rebound from 33.2 is possibly merely part of a larger scale correction which should bring another a new low below 33.2 before completion.