By: Bob Pisani
Reporter
Bob Pisani is off today, this post was written by CNBC producer Robert Hum
The markets took another leg down in the middle of the morning, with the Dow and S&P sitting at their lowest levels since the end of April. With 4 straight weeks of losses, the Dow and S&P are now about 9 percent off their June highs. The current losing streak comes just after the Dow’s amazing run of only 2 down weeks over a 14-week period.
Global Markets
While the markets may be oversold now, is a near-term bounce near?Maybe not, according to Lowry Research, one of the oldest technical analysis firms in the country. In their latest note, Lowry sees signs of current market conditions continuing to weaken as buyers remain seated on the sidelines with exchange trading volumes remaining light. They suggest that the markets’ recent struggle to produce any upside momentum in oversold conditions may indicate that “prices have not yet fallen far enough to generate enthusiastic investor demand.” Just as worrisome are signs that the markets’ strong recent rally from March to June may be truly over, with a more prolonged downtrend now possibly in store. Lowry points out that the markets’ failure to put together any rebound amid recent oversold conditions is more representative of trends that occur in bear markets rather than in bull markets.
Bottom line is that buyers have little incentive right now to jump into the markets ahead of a big week of earnings and economic data next week—and what an important week it will be. This week, eyes will undoubtedly be on some of the major financial firms—Goldman Sachs[GS 141.87 -1.34 (-0.94%) ], JPMorgan [JPM 32.34 -1.28 (-3.81%) ], Bank of America [BAC 11.88 -0.09 (-0.75%) ] and tech companies IBM [IBM 100.83 -1.25 (-1.22%) ], Intel [INTC 16.04 0.02 (+0.12%) ] —as they report earnings and hopefully provide some color on their current business conditions. On the economic front, key inflation (PPI, CPI) and housing (building permits, housing starts) reports along with retail sales and industrial production data will be in focus. Getting better than expected numbers next week would be a catalyst for the markets, giving buyers a reason to move away from the sidelines and begin investing more money in stocks once again. On the flip side, however, disappointing data or corporate earnings would likely extend the current downturn further, dampening any hopes of a near-term rebound.
Take a look at what happened this morning. The markets opened lower, but soon rose off their lows 15 minutes into trading. Unfortunately though, the move up was thwarted by a weak University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, which sent the markets once again lower. Just as important over the next few weeks, buyers want to begin seeing greater signs of strength and not just “less bad” conditions. That will come in the form of improved revenue growth and stronger earnings guidance on the corporate front and from any hints of economic growth in the slew of economic data.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (13-18 Juli 2009)
Date WIB + 11 Jam Currency Forecast Previous
Sun
Jul 12 6:45pm
NZD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.5%
6:45pm
NZD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -0.1%
Mon
Jul 13 12:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m 5.9% 5.9%
1:00am JPY Household Confidence 36.8 35.7
3:15am CHF PPI m/m 0.1% -0.3%
6:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
10:30am CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -65.5B -189.7B
7:01pm GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y -0.8%
7:01pm GBP RICS House Price Balance -40.1% -44.1%
9:30pm AUD NAB Business Confidence -2
Tue
Jul 14 All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
4:30am GBP CPI y/y 1.8% 2.2%
4:30am GBP MPC Member Designate Posen Speaks
4:30am GBP RPI y/y -1.6% -1.1%
4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y 1.6% 1.6%
4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y -12.6% -13.0%
5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 48.0 44.8
5:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 1.1% -1.9%
5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 44.3 42.7
8:30am CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 1.0% 0.0%
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.5%
8:30am USD PPI m/m 0.9% 0.2%
8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.5%
8:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.1% -0.1%
10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m -1.0% -1.1%
10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 50.8
9:00pm AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.7%
15th-30th AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence -24
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate 0.10% 0.10%
Wed
Jul 15 Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
3:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.8% 1.2%
4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 41.9K 39.3K
4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.1% 0.8%
4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 7.4% 7.2%
5:00am EUR CPI y/y -0.1% -0.1%
5:00am EUR Core CPI y/y 1.5% 1.5%
8:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -0.8% -0.1%
8:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
8:30am USD CPI m/m 0.6% 0.1%
8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index -5.3 -9.4
9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 67.8% 68.3%
9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m -0.6% -1.1%
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.9M
2:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
6:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 42.7
6:45pm NZD CPI q/q 0.5% 0.3%
6:45pm NZD FPI m/m 0.3%
7:50pm JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.3% 2.2%
9:30pm AUD RBA Monthly Bulletin
Thu
Jul 16 1:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report
2:45am EUR French CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.37B -0.28B
5:00am CHF ZEW Economic Expectations 9.7
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 530K 565K
9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 11.2B
10:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -5.0 -2.2
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 75B
9:30pm AUD Import Prices q/q -6.0% -2.8%
Fri
Jul 17 5:00am EUR Trade Balance 1.2B -0.3B
7:00am CAD Core CPI m/m 0.0% 0.4%
7:00am CAD CPI m/m 0.3% 0.7%
8:30am CAD Leading Index m/m 0.2% -0.1%
8:30am USD Building Permits 0.52M 0.52M
8:30am USD Housing Starts 0.53M 0.53M
1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 16 15
Sun
Jul 12 6:45pm
NZD Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.5%
6:45pm
NZD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -0.1%
Mon
Jul 13 12:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m 5.9% 5.9%
1:00am JPY Household Confidence 36.8 35.7
3:15am CHF PPI m/m 0.1% -0.3%
6:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
10:30am CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey
2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -65.5B -189.7B
7:01pm GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y -0.8%
7:01pm GBP RICS House Price Balance -40.1% -44.1%
9:30pm AUD NAB Business Confidence -2
Tue
Jul 14 All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
4:30am GBP CPI y/y 1.8% 2.2%
4:30am GBP MPC Member Designate Posen Speaks
4:30am GBP RPI y/y -1.6% -1.1%
4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y 1.6% 1.6%
4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y -12.6% -13.0%
5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 48.0 44.8
5:00am EUR Industrial Production m/m 1.1% -1.9%
5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 44.3 42.7
8:30am CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 1.0% 0.0%
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.5%
8:30am USD PPI m/m 0.9% 0.2%
8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.5%
8:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.1% -0.1%
10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m -1.0% -1.1%
10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 50.8
9:00pm AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.7%
15th-30th AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence -24
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate 0.10% 0.10%
Wed
Jul 15 Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
3:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y 0.8% 1.2%
4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 41.9K 39.3K
4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.1% 0.8%
4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 7.4% 7.2%
5:00am EUR CPI y/y -0.1% -0.1%
5:00am EUR Core CPI y/y 1.5% 1.5%
8:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -0.8% -0.1%
8:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%
8:30am USD CPI m/m 0.6% 0.1%
8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index -5.3 -9.4
9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 67.8% 68.3%
9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m -0.6% -1.1%
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.9M
2:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
6:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 42.7
6:45pm NZD CPI q/q 0.5% 0.3%
6:45pm NZD FPI m/m 0.3%
7:50pm JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.3% 2.2%
9:30pm AUD RBA Monthly Bulletin
Thu
Jul 16 1:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report
2:45am EUR French CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.37B -0.28B
5:00am CHF ZEW Economic Expectations 9.7
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 530K 565K
9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 11.2B
10:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -5.0 -2.2
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 75B
9:30pm AUD Import Prices q/q -6.0% -2.8%
Fri
Jul 17 5:00am EUR Trade Balance 1.2B -0.3B
7:00am CAD Core CPI m/m 0.0% 0.4%
7:00am CAD CPI m/m 0.3% 0.7%
8:30am CAD Leading Index m/m 0.2% -0.1%
8:30am USD Building Permits 0.52M 0.52M
8:30am USD Housing Starts 0.53M 0.53M
1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 16 15
Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
Reuters/ Jefferies CRB Index dropped -5% to settle at 233.51 as investors turned risk averse and sought shelter in Japanese yen and US dollar. USD gained most against commodity currencies such as Australian dollar (+2.2%) and African rand (+3.7%) as prices of energy and precious metals tumbled. Other risk investments also got hit. In the US, Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped -1.6% to settle at 8146.5 while S&P 500 Index plunged -1.9% to 879.1. Investors have turned defensive and further selloff is likely in the near-term.
Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Jul 11 09 14:02 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall extended further to as low as 58.72 last week and took out 55 days EMA at 63 and then medium term channel support at 60.83. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further decline should be seen to key resistance turned support at 54.66 next. On the upside, above 61.57 minor resistance will indicate that a short term bottom might be formed with mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Some consolidation should then be seen but upside is expected to be be limited by double top neckline at 66.2 bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, the break of medium term channel support last week confirmed that rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 suggests that it's corrective in nature. In addition, Crude oil failed to sustain above both 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. Hence, such rise from 33.2 to 73.83 is treated as a correction in the larger fall from 147.24 only. Decline from 73.83 is now expected to extend further to a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 66.2 resistance is at least needed to indicate that fall from 73.83 has completed and revive the possibility that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, recent development suggests that fall from 147.24 to 33.2 is likely just part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. That is, another medium term will likely be seen before completing such consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected inside 17.12/37.0 support zone to complete the correction.
Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Jul 11 09 14:02 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall extended further to as low as 58.72 last week and took out 55 days EMA at 63 and then medium term channel support at 60.83. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further decline should be seen to key resistance turned support at 54.66 next. On the upside, above 61.57 minor resistance will indicate that a short term bottom might be formed with mild bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Some consolidation should then be seen but upside is expected to be be limited by double top neckline at 66.2 bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, the break of medium term channel support last week confirmed that rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 suggests that it's corrective in nature. In addition, Crude oil failed to sustain above both 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. Hence, such rise from 33.2 to 73.83 is treated as a correction in the larger fall from 147.24 only. Decline from 73.83 is now expected to extend further to a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 66.2 resistance is at least needed to indicate that fall from 73.83 has completed and revive the possibility that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the long term picture, recent development suggests that fall from 147.24 to 33.2 is likely just part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. That is, another medium term will likely be seen before completing such consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected inside 17.12/37.0 support zone to complete the correction.
Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Jul 11 09 14:03 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's decline resumed last week by taking out 9.12.3 and reached as low as 904.8 before turning sideway. Some consolidation might be seen initially this week but after all, recovery should be limited below 949.0 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 904.8 will target 100% projection of 992.1 to 913.2 from 949 at 870.1 next.
In the bigger picture, fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed yet. such decline will likely extend to of 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681.
On the upside, above 949 resistance will suggests that fall from 992.1 has completed and turn outlook bullish for retesting this resistance. Break there will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's decline resumed last week by taking out 9.12.3 and reached as low as 904.8 before turning sideway. Some consolidation might be seen initially this week but after all, recovery should be limited below 949.0 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 904.8 will target 100% projection of 992.1 to 913.2 from 949 at 870.1 next.
In the bigger picture, fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed yet. such decline will likely extend to of 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681.
On the upside, above 949 resistance will suggests that fall from 992.1 has completed and turn outlook bullish for retesting this resistance. Break there will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
Warren Buffett's Top Three Investment Rules for the Average American
By: Alex Crippen
Executive Producer
Warren Buffett isn't shy about giving advice. If he hadn't gone into the investing business, he could well have made teaching his profession. Now that he's the world's greatest living investor, there are plenty of pupils anxious to attend class. In a taped interview, Bianna Golodryga asks Buffett for his "top three pieces of advice for average Americans who want to grow their savings and keep their money safe."
In this venue, there's no mention of intrinsic values, durable competitive advantages, or even buy-and-hold.
Buffett's response:
1. If it seems too good to be true, it probably is.
2. Always look at how much the other guy is making when he is trying to sell you something.
3. Stay away from leverage. Nobody ever goes broke that doesn't owe money.
Buffett also finds important life and investing lessons in his favorite game:
"In bridge, everything anybody does or doesn't do, you're drawing inferences from, including your partner and your opponents. You're working with a partner. If you don't work well with partners you're not going to have a winning bridge team over time. And everything you've learned from the past has some utility on the next hand you play. The next hand, you've never played it before and you'll never play it again in your life. But on the other hand, the problems you've solved in the past are useful in solving the problems there. And you have to keep paying attention all the time. You can't coast."
And while Buffett doesn't think that everyone should necessarily get a college degree, he does strongly believe in the value of learning, as any good teacher would.
"Generally speaking, investing in yourself is the best thing you can do. Anything that improves your own talents. Nobody can take it away from you. They can run up huge deficits, the dollar can become worth far less, you can have all kinds of things happen. But if you've got talent yourself, and you maximize your talent, you've got a terrific asset."
Current Berkshire stock prices:
Class A: [US;BRK.A 85125.0 -475.00 (-0.55%) ]
Class B: [US;BRK.B 2745.0 -25.79 (-0.93%) ]
Executive Producer
Warren Buffett isn't shy about giving advice. If he hadn't gone into the investing business, he could well have made teaching his profession. Now that he's the world's greatest living investor, there are plenty of pupils anxious to attend class. In a taped interview, Bianna Golodryga asks Buffett for his "top three pieces of advice for average Americans who want to grow their savings and keep their money safe."
In this venue, there's no mention of intrinsic values, durable competitive advantages, or even buy-and-hold.
Buffett's response:
1. If it seems too good to be true, it probably is.
2. Always look at how much the other guy is making when he is trying to sell you something.
3. Stay away from leverage. Nobody ever goes broke that doesn't owe money.
Buffett also finds important life and investing lessons in his favorite game:
"In bridge, everything anybody does or doesn't do, you're drawing inferences from, including your partner and your opponents. You're working with a partner. If you don't work well with partners you're not going to have a winning bridge team over time. And everything you've learned from the past has some utility on the next hand you play. The next hand, you've never played it before and you'll never play it again in your life. But on the other hand, the problems you've solved in the past are useful in solving the problems there. And you have to keep paying attention all the time. You can't coast."
And while Buffett doesn't think that everyone should necessarily get a college degree, he does strongly believe in the value of learning, as any good teacher would.
"Generally speaking, investing in yourself is the best thing you can do. Anything that improves your own talents. Nobody can take it away from you. They can run up huge deficits, the dollar can become worth far less, you can have all kinds of things happen. But if you've got talent yourself, and you maximize your talent, you've got a terrific asset."
Current Berkshire stock prices:
Class A: [US;BRK.A 85125.0 -475.00 (-0.55%) ]
Class B: [US;BRK.B 2745.0 -25.79 (-0.93%) ]
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