China’s Shanghai Composite to Extend Rally: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- China’s Shanghai Composite Index, the world’s second-best performer this year, may extend its rally as the margin between the index’s level and two moving averages widens, according to Asia Charts Pte. Analysis shows the gap, or “daylight,” between the Shanghai gauge’s price and its 13-day and 26-day simple moving averages has increased, signaling a strengthening of the medium-term trend, Ee Chee Koon, chief operating officer at Singapore-based Asia Charts, said in an e-mail.The Shanghai Composite has rallied 87 percent this year, trailing only Peru’s benchmark stock index among the 89 tracked by Bloomberg globally. It climbed 1.2 percent to 3,411.62 at the 11:30 a.m. break today.

“Though the Shanghai Composite Index has been charging up, there is little sign that the trend is coming to an end,” Ee said. The index may rise to a so-called resistance level of 3,650, he added. The 200-day simple moving average is also rising, showing the “long-term uptrend remains intact.”A moving average is a technical analysis indicator that displays the average value of a security’s price over a period of time.

U.S. Stocks May Rally More, Dow Theory Says: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks may climb further after rallying to an eight-month high, according to followers of the century-old Dow Theory. As the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to the highest level since Nov. 5 yesterday, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, a measure for airlines, shipping companies and railroads, broke through a May peak as it surged to the best level in six months. Dow Theory says that when the measures of industrial and transportation companies both post new highs, equities are likely to gain. “I consider the primary trend of the market as having turned bullish under the Dow Theory,” said Nick Batsford, a technical analyst at Hobart Capital Markets Ltd. in London.

Dow Theory is named for the developer of Dow Jones & Co.’s averages, Charles H. Dow, who died in 1902. Both gauges reaching new highs is considered a sign of strength in the U.S. economy, under the assumption that when companies are expanding, they ship more goods. The Dow industrials gained 2.1 percent to 9,069.29 yesterday while the transportation index, which includes companies such as FedEx Corp. and Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp., added 3.3 percent to 3,506.12.

IHSG/Forex/Stodex Asia: Potensi Kenaikan Saham Regional & EURO/Pound Terbatas Pekan Ini

IHSG Outlook
Pada pekan ini, potensi kenaikan IHSG diperkirakan terbatas, karena sejumlah faktor mendukung perkiraan profit-taking menghadapi kondisi teknikal overbought, serta faktor mahalnya valuasi IHSG dapat menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham lokal, terutama sikap investor wait and see menjelang musim earning di tanah air untuk laporan semester 1 2009 dalam waktu dekat (TLKM, BMRI, BBRI, INCO), dimana lapkeu BMDN, BBNI dan SMGR telah menunjukkan hasil yang positif. Potensi kenaikan harga minyak pekan ini (target US$ 73/77) dapat memicu kekhawatiran terhadap RAPBN RI tahun fiskal 2009, dimana dapat mendorong aksi profit-taking saham unggulan berkat spekulasi kenaikan harga BBM subsidi dapat mengganggu proses pemulihan ekonomi Indonesia di tahun ini. Perkiraan data pertumbuhan ekonomi triwulan ke-2 RI tahun 2009 dirilis waktu dekat ini, Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani pekan lalu, memperkirakan GDP Q2 akan tercatat 3.7% y/y, turun dari 4.4% y/y di Q1 2009, dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan IHSG.

Meski IHSG masih ditopang oleh kuatnya aliran dana masuk pasar modal, setelah investor asing mencatat net buying saham sebesar US$ 105 juta pada pekan lalu, diikuti aliran dana masuk dari imbas lancarnya pilpres & hasil rekapitulasi KPU dan mulai berangsur normalnya kondisi ekonomi paska teror Bom di Mega Kuningan, serta suksesnya 3 lelang SUN dan Samurai Bond milik pemerintah RI pada pertengahan bulan ini, menguatkan rupiah ke level tertinggi (Rp 9,980 pada 24/07) sejak September 2008, diikuti spekulasi penurunan inflasi bulan Juli dan BI rate di pekan depan, memberikan keuntungan kepada saham perbankan, property, konsumer dan infrastruktur. kenaikan harga komoditi dapat menopang saham komoditi dan sentimen positif dari data ekonomi (Home Sales, GDP Q2 AS) dan musim earning di AS dan IPO perusahaan konstruksi China, dapat memberikan support.

Stock Picks: Average last 5 week +37.15%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%
BOW: BUMI,ANTM,INCO,TINS,WIKA,BMRI,BBKP,PGAS,MEDC,META,INKP,INTP,KIJA

Global Outlook
Faktor teknikal yang overbought dan mahalnya valuasi saham regional dan indeks saham S&P 500 (PER 15x), serta perkiraan sejumlah data ekonomi di AS akan tercatat lebih rendah dari perkiraan pasar, terutama di tengah kenaikan harga minyak yang dapat mengganggu proses pemulihan ekonomi global pada semester 2 tahun ini. Meski musim earnings di AS (75% earning di AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan analis) sejauh ini mampu mengangkat indeks saham MSCI World Index sebesar +4.5% pekan lalu dan indeks saham DJIA menguat +7.6%). Pekan ini sekitar 150 emiten di AS (dalam indeks S&P 500) akan melaporkan hasil lapkeu semester 1, diantaranya perusahaan raksasa energi seperti Exxon Mobil, BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Shell dan Verizon, dapat memberikan kejutan kepada pasar. Sementara serangkaian pidato dari Chairman Fed Bernanke, data home sales, consumer confidence, jobless claims, GDP Q2 AS (perkiraan -1.7%, UBI melihat lemahnya daya beli konsumen) dan penerbitan Treasury AS senilai $ 205 miliar dapat picu aksi profit-taking indeks saham global.

Technical Analysis:
Seperti diperkirakan IHSG akhirnya mampu menembus dan ditutup diatas 61.8 Fibonacci Retracement di 2,170 (daily dan weekly closing) menunjukkan potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut di pekan mendatang, diikuti oleh pola candle white opening marubozu (bullish continuation), didukung oleh indikator ADX yang meningkat, MACD bullish meski stochastic overbought, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas pekan ini. Kondisi tersebut didukung oleh analisa Elliot Wave, bahwa IHSG berada di wave motive 3 dalam siklus subwave 4 atau B, untuk target 2,350/2425 (76.4% FR 2838-1089) selama bertahan diatas 2,069 (trendline support) dan 1.799 (long term support).
Resistance: 2302.19/2256.12/2220.89/2192.44. PP 2163.98
Support : 2146.37/2100.30/2071.84/2025.77
(Perkiraan Range Pekan Ini 2100-2,250)
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Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
(+120p+50+70p) Euro masih berpotensi menguat berkat pola channel dan pola candle bullish engulfing menunjukkan indikasi bullish continuation, diikuti didukung oleh indikator ADX naik, stochastic crossing up dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan kenaikan hari ini. Support berada di 1.4095 (trendline)/1.4135 (former low), Resistance berada di 1.4300/1.4370. Euro berada di dalam wave proses iii dalam wave 3 zig zag, untuk target $ 1.4300, selama tidak mencapai dibawah 1.4020. Buy 1.4140 & buy 1.4070 target 1.4200, sell break 1.4000 target 1.3880 stop 60p, sell 1.4290 & 1.4330 target 1.4150 stop 1.4350.

USD-JPY
(-20p-30p) USDJPY masih berada dalam pola bearish uptrend channel di daily chart, meski penurunan tertahan di lower channel di 91.85, bilamana ditutup dibawah level tersebut akan memutarbalikan trend menjadi bearish target 90.35 (support line). Indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic crossover, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang koreksi penurunan jika gagal ditutup diatas 95.00. Resistance berada di 95.60, support di 93.10. Buy 94.20 target 95.50 stop 50p. Sell 95.60 target 93.00. buy 93.50 & Buy 92.60 stop 89.80 target 95.60.

GBP-USD
(+170p) GBP masih berada dalam uptrend channel dalam pola ascening triangle, pola congestion, diikuti indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic crossing up dan MACD berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.6311 (lower channel). Buy 1.6320 target 1.6550. sell 1.6550 target 1.6320, buy 1.6100, Sell 1.6660 target 1.6350. Sell break 1.6260 target 1.6100 stop 100p. Buy break 1.6675 target 1.6840.

AUD-USD
(+30p) AUD berada dalam pola uptrend channel minor dalam downtrend channel, meski pola congestion menunjukkan potensi technical rebound terbatas, diikuti ADX rebound, stochastic crossup, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan 0.8255/0.8300, selama di bawah 0.7865. Resistance di 0.8258, support di 0.8000. Buy 0.7950 & buy 7870 target 0.8100, sell 0.8200 target 0.8000 & sell 0.850 stop 0.8300. sell break 0.8090 target 0.7950.

Laporan Pasar
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei akhir pekan kemarin ditutup menguat 1,55%, menyusul baiknya kinerja laporan keuangan korporasi AS yang memberi harapan segera pulihnya perekonomian. Saham teknologi, khususnya produsen chip seperti Advantest Corp melonjak karena tingginya laporan pemesanan produk. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup menguat 151,61 poin, atau 1,55%, ke posisi 1.502,59, level penutupan tertinggi sejak 30 Juni.
Di chart daily, laju kenaikan Nikkei tertahan oleh upper channel di 10,055 kendati ditutup diatas trendline di 9,961 yang menunjukkan bullish continuation. Meski indeks menunjukkan pola candle evening star, sejumlah indikator masih mendukung potensi kenaikan, ADX trending up, stochastic dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Resistance di 10110 (upper channel)/101175). Support 9860 (lower channel)/9771 Perkiraan range hari ini 9750-10100. Rekomendasi Sell 10100 & 10175 target 9700 stp 100p. Buy 9800 target 10000 stop 100p, Buy 9620 target 9200 stop 50p. (0p) Chart SSIU9 Daily

Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi diakhir perdagangan minggu kemarin positif berkat positifnya laporan keuangan dari Samsung Electronics dan Hynix Semiconductor. Sedangkan POSCO menguat karena cerahnya prospek sektor tersebut kedepan. Indeks Kospi .KS11 .KS11 ditutup naik 6,10 poin, atau 0,41%, ke posisi 1.502,59 poin, merupakan kenaikan ke-9 kalinya berturut-turut.
Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada di bawah trendline dalam pola ascending triangle dalam uptrend channel didukung pola candle dojis dengan spike low (potensi bearish reversal). Kondisi stochastic crossing up, MACD bullish dan ADX trending up, seharusnya membatasi perkiraan kenaikan. Resistance berada di 197.47/200.80. Support di 194.60/190.90. Rekomendasi Sell break 194.50 & 190.90 target 188.00 stop 100p, buy 188.00 target 195.00, sell break 185.50 target 183.00 stop 100p. Sell 195.90 & 197.80 target 190.00 stop 100p. (+100p) Chart KSU9 Daily

Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)
Indeks Hang Seng ditutup naik 0,83% Jumat kemarin, mendekati level yang belum pernah dicapainya sejak keruntuhan Lehman Brothers. Penguatan ini didukung oleh momentum kinerja keuangan perusahaan dan penegasan Beijing akan komitmennya dalam menerapkan kebijakan moneter longgar. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup melonjak 165,09 poin, atau 0,83%, ke posisi 19982,79, setelah sempat menguat ke leveel 20.063,93.
Dalam chart daily, indeks berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi bullish broadening , didukung pola candle dragonfly doji, ADX meningkat, stochastic golden cross, MACD bullish seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan. Resistance di 20180/20300. Support 19750/19550. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave koreksi v (akhir) dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell 20025/20180 target 19700 (or closing) stop 100 p. Sell break 19740 target 19500. Buy 19.550 target 19800. sell break 18900 target 18460. buy break 20040 target Sell 20300 target 20000 stop 100p. (+200p) Chart HSIN9 Daily

Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (27 - 31 Juli 2009)

Date WIB + 11 jam Currency Forecast Previous
Sun
Jul 26 7:00pm
USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
7:50pm JPY CSPI y/y -3.2% -3.0%
Mon
Jul 27 2:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 2.9 2.9
2:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m 0.6% 0.0%
4:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 3.7% 3.7%
4:00am EUR Private Loans y/y 1.6% 1.8%
10:00am USD New Home Sales 354K 342K
6:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
6:45pm NZD Trade Balance 214M 858M
8:00pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.7%
9:30pm AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence -24
11:00pm AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
Tue
Jul 28 2:00am CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 0.77
6:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales -12 -17
9:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y -17.8% -18.1%
10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence 48.9 49.3
10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 8 6
12:35pm USD FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
6:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
6:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m -4.8% 3.5%
7:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y -2.5% -2.7%
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -5.7%
11:00pm NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 5.5
Wed
Jul 29 All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.2% 0.4%
4:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 0.9B 0.6B
4:30am GBP Mortgage Approvals 48K 43K
8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.1% 1.1%
8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.6% 1.8%
8:30am USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.8M
2:00pm USD Beige Book
5:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 2.50% 2.50%
5:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
6:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
7:50pm JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 2.5% 5.7%
9:30pm AUD Building Approvals m/m 8.0% -12.5%
Thu
Jul 30 2:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.3% 0.9%
3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 44K 31K
5:00am EUR Consumer Confidence -24 -25
8:30am CAD RMPI m/m 2.2%
8:30am CAD IPPI m/m -1.1%
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 578K 554K
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 66B
7:01pm GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -23 -25
7:15pm JPY Manufacturing PMI 48.2
7:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y 0.3% 0.3%
7:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y -1.7% -1.3%
7:30pm JPY National Core CPI y/y -1.6% -1.1%
7:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 5.3% 5.2%
8:30pm AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.4%
9:30pm AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.1% -0.1%
Fri
Jul 31 1:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y -30.7% -30.8%
5:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y -0.4% -0.1%
5:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
5:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 9.7% 9.5%
5:30am CHF KOF Economic Barometer -1.46 -1.65
8:30am CAD GDP m/m -0.4% -0.1%
8:30am USD Advance GDP q/q -1.3% -5.5%
8:30am USD Advance GDP Price Index q/q 1.1% 2.8%
8:30am USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.3% 0.3%
9:45am USD Chicago PMI 42.1 39.9

Earnings Remain a Tailwind for Stocks

Corporate earnings will serve as a tailwind for the stock market in the week ahead, but gains could be constrained after an 11 percent run over the last two weeks. About 30 percent of the S&P 500 reports earnings, and there's key economic data, including GDP for the second quarter and durable goods for June. Earnings reports are expected from major oil companies, like ExxonMobil [XOM 72.29 0.68 (+0.95%) ], BP [BP 50.65 -0.05 (-0.1%) ] and Chevron [CVX 68.43 0.54 (+0.8%) ]; entertainment companies, like Disney [DIS 26.58 -0.22 (-0.82%) ] and Viacom [VIA 25.46 -0.11 (-0.43%) ]; Travelers [TRV 43.22 0.61 (+1.43%) ], and dozens of others.Traders say they expect the market to consolidate its recent gains, but the trend remains higher for now." You're entitled to some rest. The tree doesn't grow straight to the sky," said Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS. Cashin said he personally expects to see a bit of a sell off in the coming week. He said the major items he is watching are the corporate reports and the Treasury's massive auctions of more than $200 billion in notes and bills.Stocks have galloped higher on the back of better-than-expected earnings reports, even as many companies' revenues continued to shrink. The Dow was up 349 points at 9093, a near 4 percent gain. It's 11.8 percent move in two weeks is the best two weeks in more than nine years. The S&P 500 was up 4.1 percent at 979, and the Nasdaq, fueled by tech, rose 4.2 percent to 1965.

Traders have been skeptical of the rally, but as stocks have gained, the bull camp has converted even some of the more skeptical. At the same time, traders say there's not enough proof the economy's recovery will be strong enough to avoid a double dip down. That fear has made the earnings reporting period even more important, as investors try to measure the health of not only companies but the broader economy. So far, 77 percent of the S&P 500 companies reporting earnings have come in above forecast but profits are still down 31 percent from last year's levels.

Profit Picture
JPMorgan chief U.S. equities strategist Thomas Lee has been more optimistic than most on corporate earnings, and he says there actually is some good news in this quarter's reports. The more important message is that revenues are growing sequentially, or quarter over quarter. According to JPMorgan research, 72 percent of Russell 1000 companies, reporting so far, show sequential revenue growth from the first quarter to second quarter."You'll see the improvement there before it shows up year over year. For me that's really confirming," he said. The biggest revenue gains were in the financials, with revenues up 8 percent. Staples and technology revenues are up 6 percent.Some analysts believe the sequential comparison is not an accurate measure because of seasonality, but Lee said the message is that the situation is stabilizing."The growth should be further in Q3 versus Q2. We though the story in Q2 was sequential topline would grow," he said, but he added that cost cutting has made profits grow more than expected. "We're just thinking if you get sequential revenues up again and you have this cost cutting in place then you have even stronger (results).. We're looking at this progressively, as a nice progression of revenues helping drive some nice progression of earnings growth."

Citigroup economist Steven Wieting found some similar positives in a bleak earnings period. He raised his forecast for 2009 and 2010 S&P 500 EPS in the past week because of the strength of earnings reports this quarter. He now expects EPS of $51 to $56 for 2009, and $56 to $62 for 2010, still below others on the street."It's a surprise, given macro conditions were unfavorable for non-financial earnings, that the improvement has happened," he said. "The surprise is that the pickup in non-financial margins has occurred earlier than expected.""...The truth be told [this] could have an impact on [companies'] willingness to restore production and employment," said Wieting."The earnings decline was less severe than expected," he said. "The commodity-related earnings have picked up more than expected," he said. Costs are under control, and there's greater flexibility for margins to hold up, he said.
"Just as the stock market rallies and financial conditions improve, all these things could be self-fulfilling...but we don't want to go overboard," he said. Lee said earnings improvements could make stocks look cheaper and cheaper and that could help fuel the stock market. "I think for the next six months, we'll definitely have higher prices...but the average bull market lasts three years, and I think it's still too early to say whether this is it," he said."Multiples are attractive in stocks and earnings are rising.

We do have global recovery, and we do have a lot of unused capital. There's a lot of cash on the sidelines, plus I think investors are pretty skeptical," he said.
Lee said the capital flows into equities funds only turned positive at the end of April. He said in 12 months of 2003 to 2004, $237 billion poured into stocks. In the past 12 months, $150 billion flowed out of stocks funds. "We've had $39 billion of in-flows since the end of April. That's twice the pace during the same number of weeks in 2003-2004," he said.

Traders say they are encouraged by the pickup in trading volume, and the fact the market is showing resilience. They are also reporting a more diverse trend of buying by investors who are branching out into less defensive sectors and small caps.
David Stec, trades options on exchange traded funds (ETFs) for Group One. "Pretty much across the board, what we're seeing is the fear premium in those back month options is coming in line with front month options," he said, indicating there's less fear in the market. He said the trend is apparent in options for ETFs on the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000.The VIX, the Chicago Board of Options Exchange's volatility index, is viewed basically as a fear meter for the stock market.
"There's not a lot of activity," said Dan Deming, who trades the VIX for Stutland Equities. He said investors "expect the VIX to trade in this 22 to 25 area going out until October."

Corporates Still Hot
The Treasury market saw selling in the past week but money continues to pour into investment grade and high-yield corporate bonds."Given the still wide spreads, I think a lot of people who are still skittish about equities are going into there as an interim solution and a safer solution. Treasurys offer nothing," said Milton Ezrati, economist and strategist with Lord Abbett.Lee said he has been encouraged by how well corporate credit has done, but the debt market is competing for investor dollars that could be in stocks. "Bonds are trading here because that's how people are valuing the fixed income piece of America's business. But I think we're undervaluing the equities part of the business. At the end of the day, it's still the same business," he said.In the coming week, Treasurys could be under more pressure as the government auctions more than $205 billion in bills and notes. There will $6 billion in 20-year TIPS Monday; $42 billion in 2-years Tuesday; $39 billion in 5-years Wednesday, and $28 billion in 7-years Thursday. Another $90 billion or so in bills will also be auctioned, in durations of 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 1-year.

Econorama
Real GDP for the second quarter is the big number traders are watching. It is released at 8:30 a.m. Friday, along with the employment cost index for the second quarter. Wieting expects a reading of -1.3 percent for second quarter GDP, then a pickup to positive 1.1 percent in third quarter. June durable goods is also important, and it is released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. The week's housing data includes new home sales Monday, and the S&P Case-Shiller home price data Tuesday. Consumer confidence is reported Tuesday. Weekly jobless claims are reported Thursday. The Fed's beige book is released Wednesday, and the Chicago Purchasing Managers are Friday. Other events of note include an unusual town hall meeting with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, to be broadcast on PBS on three consecutive nights, starting Monday. Bernanke will sit down with anchor Jim Lehrer for a one hour forum with an audience at the Kansas City Fed.Also, the first joint meeting between China and the U.S. on strategic and economic interest gets underway in Washington. The meeting opens Monday with a White House ceremony including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, and China State Councilor Dai Bingguo and Vice Premier Wang Qishan.

Earnings Central
Among the dozens of companies reporting earnings are Verizon and Honeywell, reporting Monday, along with Amgen, Corning, Lorillard, and Alberto-Culver. On Tuesday, BP, McGraw-Hill, Valero, Viacom, Dreamworks, Norfolk Southern, Teva, U.S. Steel, Smith International, Interpublic, Celanese and Textron report.Wednesday's reports include Arcelor Mittal, ConocoPhillips, Daimler, Honda, Nissan, Qwest, Royal Caribbean, Sprint, Time Warner and Aflac.AstraZenca, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Disney, Travelers, Mastercard, Motorola, Siemens, Sony and Telefonica report Thursday, and Chevron and AutoNation report Friday.