Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Aug 01 09 15:46 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's correction from 68.99 was contained above 62.44 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 58.32 to 68.99 at 62.39) as expected. Subsequent strong rally and break of 68.99 high indicates that rise from 58.32 has resumed and should now be targeting key cluster level at 73.38 with 100% projection of 58.32 to 68.99 from 62.7 at 73.36. While some retreat might be seen, break of 62.70 support is needed to indicate that rise from 58.32 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 33.2 is likely still in progress as crude oil is still trading well inside rising channel from there. Current rise from 58.32 should be resuming such rebound and will likely make another high above 73.38, probably to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. But strong resistance will likely be seen as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone. Hence, we'd look for sign of reversal and loss of momentum as crude oil as the current rise continues. on the downside, break of 62.70 support will argue that crude oil has possibly topped out earlier than we expect and break of 58.32 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Aug 01 09 15:47 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's fall from 862.7 was contained at 927.6 and subsequent strong rally argues that whole rise from 904.8 is still in progress. Break of 962.7 high will confirm rise resumption and should then target 100% projection of 904.8 to 962.7 from 927.6 at 985.4 next. Nevertheless, as price actions from 1007.7 might be developing into triangle consolidation, upside of the current rise will possibly be limited between 985.4 and 992.1 and bring at least another fall to conclude the consolidation. Hence we'd look for near term reversal signals there. On the downside, break of 927.6 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 904.8 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, fall from 992.1 is either part of triangle consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. We're slightly preferring the former case. But after all, in either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely. Break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's fall from 862.7 was contained at 927.6 and subsequent strong rally argues that whole rise from 904.8 is still in progress. Break of 962.7 high will confirm rise resumption and should then target 100% projection of 904.8 to 962.7 from 927.6 at 985.4 next. Nevertheless, as price actions from 1007.7 might be developing into triangle consolidation, upside of the current rise will possibly be limited between 985.4 and 992.1 and bring at least another fall to conclude the consolidation. Hence we'd look for near term reversal signals there. On the downside, break of 927.6 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 904.8 has completed. Otherwise, short term outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, fall from 992.1 is either part of triangle consolidation from 1007.7 or a correction to rise from 865. We're slightly preferring the former case. But after all, in either case, there are still some possible scenarios that will bring more consolidation below 1007.7. So we'd stay neutral as long as 1007.7 resistance holds and be prepared for another fall before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, the case of another deep fall to 865 is not likely. Break of 992.1 /1007.7 resistance will indicate that whole rise from 681 has resumed for 1033.9 key resistance next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Week Ahead: Take Profits, but Keep Running With the Bulls (Part 2)
"I think it's a sign of more to come. Even the IMF is talking about the need for a lower dollar," said Gilmore.
From 'Mad Money':
Avoid These Oil Stocks
Emerging markets have rallied, with Shanghai up 15 percent in July, South Korea up 12 percent, and Bombay up 8 percent, for example. Shanghai is up 87 percent year to date, while Bombay is up 62 percent. South Korea is up 38 percent.
Steve Bleiberg, president and chief investment officer of Legg Mason Global Asset Allocation, said this past week that he thinks the emerging markets have become overvalued, and on a relative basis, it's time to be neutral on U.S. equities. He said that European markets are now the ones to overweight, not because of a vigorous outlook, but because they are relatively undervalued. Bleiberg said he is underweight Japan as well. "I do think the outlook for Japan is not that good and it does not look good on valuation measures," he said.
The U.S. market could move up from neutral if the economy shows real signs of improvement. "I would say there's reasons to come out cautious, and that's why we came out neutral. There's signs the worst is over but there are long term reasons to believe we're not going back to very strong growth," he said.
The dollar index Friday was at 78.30, a low for the year. The dollar lost 1.6 percent against the euro in July to $1.4253, and lost 1.8 percent against the yen.
More From CNBC.com
Treasurys had a volatile month, as the government issued hundreds of billions in new notes and bills in July. The 10-year finished Friday with a yield of 3.501 percent, and the 2-year ended July with a yield of 1.111 percent. There are no auctions in the coming week.
Earnings Central
Energy, insurance, home builders, financials, consumer staples and media are among the industries reporting in the week ahead.
Humana , Clorox , Marathon Oi l, Lowe's , Tyson Foods , Anadarko Petroleum and Pulte Homes report Monday. On Tuesday, Archer Daniels Midland , D.R. Horton , Duke Energy , UBS , Kraft Foods and Electronic Arts report. Procter and Gamble , Cisco , Axa , Baker Hughes , Fortress investment , Polo Ralph Lauren , Transocean , Allstate , News Corp and Prudential are the major releases Wednesday. Thursday's reports include Comcast , DirecTV , Nasdaq , Sirius XM , Thomson Reuters , Unilever , CBS and Public Storage . Liberty ong> and Public Storage . Liberty Media and Edison International release numbers Friday.
From 'Mad Money':
Avoid These Oil Stocks
Emerging markets have rallied, with Shanghai up 15 percent in July, South Korea up 12 percent, and Bombay up 8 percent, for example. Shanghai is up 87 percent year to date, while Bombay is up 62 percent. South Korea is up 38 percent.
Steve Bleiberg, president and chief investment officer of Legg Mason Global Asset Allocation, said this past week that he thinks the emerging markets have become overvalued, and on a relative basis, it's time to be neutral on U.S. equities. He said that European markets are now the ones to overweight, not because of a vigorous outlook, but because they are relatively undervalued. Bleiberg said he is underweight Japan as well. "I do think the outlook for Japan is not that good and it does not look good on valuation measures," he said.
The U.S. market could move up from neutral if the economy shows real signs of improvement. "I would say there's reasons to come out cautious, and that's why we came out neutral. There's signs the worst is over but there are long term reasons to believe we're not going back to very strong growth," he said.
The dollar index Friday was at 78.30, a low for the year. The dollar lost 1.6 percent against the euro in July to $1.4253, and lost 1.8 percent against the yen.
More From CNBC.com
Treasurys had a volatile month, as the government issued hundreds of billions in new notes and bills in July. The 10-year finished Friday with a yield of 3.501 percent, and the 2-year ended July with a yield of 1.111 percent. There are no auctions in the coming week.
Earnings Central
Energy, insurance, home builders, financials, consumer staples and media are among the industries reporting in the week ahead.
Humana , Clorox , Marathon Oi l, Lowe's , Tyson Foods , Anadarko Petroleum and Pulte Homes report Monday. On Tuesday, Archer Daniels Midland , D.R. Horton , Duke Energy , UBS , Kraft Foods and Electronic Arts report. Procter and Gamble , Cisco , Axa , Baker Hughes , Fortress investment , Polo Ralph Lauren , Transocean , Allstate , News Corp and Prudential are the major releases Wednesday. Thursday's reports include Comcast , DirecTV , Nasdaq , Sirius XM , Thomson Reuters , Unilever , CBS and Public Storage . Liberty ong> and Public Storage . Liberty Media and Edison International release numbers Friday.
Week Ahead: Take Profits, but Keep Running With the Bulls (Part 1)
Stock traders say it's not time to fold 'em, but you might want to take some profits off the table.
In the week ahead, investors will shift focus from earnings reports to hard economic data. The July jobs report Friday is the big event. But auto sales will also be important when they are reported Monday, particularly after Congress looks set to extend the highly popular "cash for clunkers" program. Just how much that revved up July's sales is yet to be seen.
A number of Wall Street economists, meanwhile, are raising forecasts for second half growth after Friday's second quarter GDP showed a surprising decline in inventories. Earnings season continues, though most major companies have now reported. CiscoCSCO , Procter and Gamble PGand Kraft Foods KFTare among those expected in the week ahead.
Stocks finished out July with a more than 7 percent gain. The Dow was up more than 8.5 percent at 9171, scoring its best July since 1989. The S&P 500 was up 7.4 percent at 987, and the Nasdaq was up 7.8 percent for the month at 1978.
Since early March, stocks have rallied in a global economic recovery trade that has taken risk assets like metal and oil higher and pushed the dollar to its lows of the year. The latest catalyst has been U.S. corporate earnings reports and signs of stabilization in some economic data. To date, S&P 500 companies so far beat Wall Street estimates 74 percent of the time this quarter.
Slideshow: States With the Most Millionaires
"I always ask myself what do earnings announcements cause analysts to do? The answer is, as a result of this, third quarter and fourth quarter numbers have been raised," said Robert Doll, vice chairman and chief investment officer at BlackRock."I always ask myself what do earnings announcements cause analysts to do? The answer is, as a result of this, third quarter and fourth quarter numbers have been raised," said Robert Doll, vice chairman and chief investment officer at BlackRock.
Doll said critics of the earnings gains point to the fact that companies have shown improvement mainly by cost cutting, but he says the sequential, quarter over quarter improvement in revenues seen by a lot of companies is a positive sign. Analysts are now projecting earnings estimate increases further out in time, which could justify higher valuations.
"I consider that to be constructive. There's a lot of disbelievers, as exhibited by the cash on the sidelines that's getting put in slowly but surely," said Doll. He said the "pain trade" may now be felt by investors who have held onto too much cash. "Am I in the camp that says because we are up so much in a very short time, could we pull back? Yes, but we're in a pattern where we've established higher and higher lows and we could pull back," said . "But for now, the trend is higher."
Doll though maintains a year-end target of 1050, even as the S&P moves closer to that level. He said he does not expect to change it. "I don't think this is going to be straight up...Maybe we get a pullback and come back down. Maybe we get higher than that. If the number is wrong, it's higher rather than lower, but I'm very content with that target," said Doll.
Econorama
Friday's jobs data is the big number for the week. It should show the unemployment rate creeping closer to 10 percent but a slowdown in the rate of job losses.
Economists are ratcheting up their forecasts after second quarter GDP came in at -1 percent, better than the -1.5 percent expected. J.P. Morgan's Bruce Kasman, for instance, raised his expectation for third quarter growth to 3 percent from 2.5 percent. His reasoning for the change was larger inventory drawdowns than expected and stronger final sales. His 2010 forecast is for 4 percent growth. Zandi raised his view for the fourth quarter to up 2 percent from 1 percent, but left third quarter at 1.5 percent. "I'm a little bit more encouraged post the (GDP) number than pre the number, but I think the recession is deeper than we thought. It is now the most severe recession since World War II," said Zandi.
"The encouraging thing is the decline last quarter and the quarter before was related to businesses just slashing inventory. They cleared the decks, got rid of unwanted stuff on shelves and warehouses...they probably cut too deeply," said Zandi. The auto industry will contribute to third and fourth quarter growth. Zandi said for every billion spent, the cash for clunkers program generates sales of 250,000. Congress is discussing expanding the $1 billion program by another $2 billion.
"Auto sales could be up to 11 million units annualized," said Zandi. Car manufacturers report sales Monday, and Ford has already signaled that it was showing a pickup even before the clunker program started last week. Other data expected in the coming week includes construction spending and ISM Monday, which economists will watch for signs of pickup in manufacturing activity. Personal income for June is reported Tuesday, as are pending home sales. Pending home sales are expected to be up a half percent in June.
A series of better than expected housing data in the past week encouraged some economists to believe the housing market is bottoming. Zandi, however, said he does not believe that is entirely the case. He said there is a bottoming in sales and construction but not for prices, which he expects to continue to fall. I don't think we're at a bottom. I think we have more price declines to go. It will intensify this winter when non distress sales decl
In the week ahead, investors will shift focus from earnings reports to hard economic data. The July jobs report Friday is the big event. But auto sales will also be important when they are reported Monday, particularly after Congress looks set to extend the highly popular "cash for clunkers" program. Just how much that revved up July's sales is yet to be seen.
A number of Wall Street economists, meanwhile, are raising forecasts for second half growth after Friday's second quarter GDP showed a surprising decline in inventories. Earnings season continues, though most major companies have now reported. CiscoCSCO , Procter and Gamble PGand Kraft Foods KFTare among those expected in the week ahead.
Stocks finished out July with a more than 7 percent gain. The Dow was up more than 8.5 percent at 9171, scoring its best July since 1989. The S&P 500 was up 7.4 percent at 987, and the Nasdaq was up 7.8 percent for the month at 1978.
Since early March, stocks have rallied in a global economic recovery trade that has taken risk assets like metal and oil higher and pushed the dollar to its lows of the year. The latest catalyst has been U.S. corporate earnings reports and signs of stabilization in some economic data. To date, S&P 500 companies so far beat Wall Street estimates 74 percent of the time this quarter.
Slideshow: States With the Most Millionaires
"I always ask myself what do earnings announcements cause analysts to do? The answer is, as a result of this, third quarter and fourth quarter numbers have been raised," said Robert Doll, vice chairman and chief investment officer at BlackRock."I always ask myself what do earnings announcements cause analysts to do? The answer is, as a result of this, third quarter and fourth quarter numbers have been raised," said Robert Doll, vice chairman and chief investment officer at BlackRock.
Doll said critics of the earnings gains point to the fact that companies have shown improvement mainly by cost cutting, but he says the sequential, quarter over quarter improvement in revenues seen by a lot of companies is a positive sign. Analysts are now projecting earnings estimate increases further out in time, which could justify higher valuations.
"I consider that to be constructive. There's a lot of disbelievers, as exhibited by the cash on the sidelines that's getting put in slowly but surely," said Doll. He said the "pain trade" may now be felt by investors who have held onto too much cash. "Am I in the camp that says because we are up so much in a very short time, could we pull back? Yes, but we're in a pattern where we've established higher and higher lows and we could pull back," said . "But for now, the trend is higher."
Doll though maintains a year-end target of 1050, even as the S&P moves closer to that level. He said he does not expect to change it. "I don't think this is going to be straight up...Maybe we get a pullback and come back down. Maybe we get higher than that. If the number is wrong, it's higher rather than lower, but I'm very content with that target," said Doll.
Econorama
Friday's jobs data is the big number for the week. It should show the unemployment rate creeping closer to 10 percent but a slowdown in the rate of job losses.
Economists are ratcheting up their forecasts after second quarter GDP came in at -1 percent, better than the -1.5 percent expected. J.P. Morgan's Bruce Kasman, for instance, raised his expectation for third quarter growth to 3 percent from 2.5 percent. His reasoning for the change was larger inventory drawdowns than expected and stronger final sales. His 2010 forecast is for 4 percent growth. Zandi raised his view for the fourth quarter to up 2 percent from 1 percent, but left third quarter at 1.5 percent. "I'm a little bit more encouraged post the (GDP) number than pre the number, but I think the recession is deeper than we thought. It is now the most severe recession since World War II," said Zandi.
"The encouraging thing is the decline last quarter and the quarter before was related to businesses just slashing inventory. They cleared the decks, got rid of unwanted stuff on shelves and warehouses...they probably cut too deeply," said Zandi. The auto industry will contribute to third and fourth quarter growth. Zandi said for every billion spent, the cash for clunkers program generates sales of 250,000. Congress is discussing expanding the $1 billion program by another $2 billion.
"Auto sales could be up to 11 million units annualized," said Zandi. Car manufacturers report sales Monday, and Ford has already signaled that it was showing a pickup even before the clunker program started last week. Other data expected in the coming week includes construction spending and ISM Monday, which economists will watch for signs of pickup in manufacturing activity. Personal income for June is reported Tuesday, as are pending home sales. Pending home sales are expected to be up a half percent in June.
A series of better than expected housing data in the past week encouraged some economists to believe the housing market is bottoming. Zandi, however, said he does not believe that is entirely the case. He said there is a bottoming in sales and construction but not for prices, which he expects to continue to fall. I don't think we're at a bottom. I think we have more price declines to go. It will intensify this winter when non distress sales decl
Stock Rally Likely to Last, But Don't Forget to Take Profits
Investment strategists generally expect the earnings- and economy-fueled rally of the past month to continue, but they're are also looking for opportunities to take profits. Such bullishnessmixed with cautionis likely to continue through 2009 and well into 2010, when the economy is expected to show signs of actual growth rather than just declining at a slower pace.
This trend, often referred to as "second derivative" by market pros, has ruled market moves for the past several months and was in evidence again Friday after a 1 percent drop in gross domestic product fed into the theory that the economy was headed for growth but not quite there yet. "We're on track," said Kurt Karl, chief economist at Swiss Re in New York. "The equity markets will continue to improve along with the economy."
The third quarter is likely to see more of the samemodest improvement in economic numbers and companies fighting for revenue growth on the top linewhile stocks move higher in fits and starts, Karl said. "We haven't seen the end of the uncertainty, so we'll have some volatility in the equity markets," he said. "But we haven't seen the end of the economic improvements, so by late next year we should be looking pretty good in the equity markets."
Since the March lows, stocks have gained dramaticallymore than 40 percent total and about 11 percent in just the past two weeks or soand are having their best July in decades. The rebound is attributable primarily to three factors: A natural bump from what some are calling a generational low; aggressive moves by the government to pump money into the economy, and an earnings season that has featured more companies beating expectations than in years.
With the market being a naturally forward-looking instrument, investors are betting that the economic direction ahead will be mostly upward.We're beyond the halfway point in this recession, so things are getting better," said John Massey, senior vice president and portfolio manager at AIG Sun America Asset Management in New York. "We're going to have a good recovery that's going to take place, but we're going to have sort of a jobless recovery." With that in mind, Massey is planning on consumer spending to be somewhat tepid for now but picking up in 2010.
As an investment strategy, Massey said his firm is rotating out of consumer staples and into consumer discretionary stocks such as casino companies, which are still relatively cheap but will turn into good buys once people can start spending money again. Staying with a longer view, Massey is looking at some plays in housing, though he says that will take more time to develop. Others, though, are looking at more immediate moves, reasoning that once volatility comes back to the market the investing climate will be a bit cloudier than now.
"If you take it when you can get it and it fits the basic philosophy you have about managing your money, God bless," said Diane de Vries Ashley, managing partner at Zenith Capital Partners in Coral Gables, Fla. "We're dipping in slowly. We're sellers of risk and we find this is a nice time to do that." Ashley says her firm is especially bullish on energy, particularly in the alternative space, and is selling some puts and buying calls on the options side. "We're not unhappy with what we're seeing. We're not as pure (with optimism) as some other folks, but we're not unhappy with the sheer optimism," she said. "We're OK with this market, but I wouldn't invest every dime I have in this market right now."
Among the other bullish arguments is a belief that many investors scared by the precipitous drop following the October 2007 all-time highs remain outside of stocksthe "money on the sidelines" argument. Some 21 percent of cash from high net worth individuals remains outside stocks, according to Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch. Inflows to funds also remains light, which BofA-Merill Lynch calls a contrarian bullish signal.
Track fund performance here
In a research note, the company earlier this week reaffirmed its 1,055-1,065 target this year for the Standard & Poor's 500 . But because the market is catching up to that number, a temporary pullback could be in the wings. "It would be reasonable then to expect the equity markets to correct, so we will begin to look for negative divergences," analyst Mary Ann Bartels wrote. "History suggests a decline between 20%-30% would not be unreasonable to expect."
That sentiment has generated a bit of caution amid the bullishness."This short-term rally I believe is going to continue, but it's going to be a rocky road," Bob Iaccino, of LotusBrokerage.com said on CNBC . For now, many investors seem willing to ride the wave, even if there are a few chills and spills along the way.
"The tendency is for people to be skeptical about recovery and skeptical that the rally can continue," Bruce McCain, head of strategy at Key Private Bank, told CNBC. "We still think that there's quite a bit of cash on the sidelines from people who may be in bonds or in other sorts of investments that will come back to equities and drive this thing further."
This trend, often referred to as "second derivative" by market pros, has ruled market moves for the past several months and was in evidence again Friday after a 1 percent drop in gross domestic product fed into the theory that the economy was headed for growth but not quite there yet. "We're on track," said Kurt Karl, chief economist at Swiss Re in New York. "The equity markets will continue to improve along with the economy."
The third quarter is likely to see more of the samemodest improvement in economic numbers and companies fighting for revenue growth on the top linewhile stocks move higher in fits and starts, Karl said. "We haven't seen the end of the uncertainty, so we'll have some volatility in the equity markets," he said. "But we haven't seen the end of the economic improvements, so by late next year we should be looking pretty good in the equity markets."
Since the March lows, stocks have gained dramaticallymore than 40 percent total and about 11 percent in just the past two weeks or soand are having their best July in decades. The rebound is attributable primarily to three factors: A natural bump from what some are calling a generational low; aggressive moves by the government to pump money into the economy, and an earnings season that has featured more companies beating expectations than in years.
With the market being a naturally forward-looking instrument, investors are betting that the economic direction ahead will be mostly upward.We're beyond the halfway point in this recession, so things are getting better," said John Massey, senior vice president and portfolio manager at AIG Sun America Asset Management in New York. "We're going to have a good recovery that's going to take place, but we're going to have sort of a jobless recovery." With that in mind, Massey is planning on consumer spending to be somewhat tepid for now but picking up in 2010.
As an investment strategy, Massey said his firm is rotating out of consumer staples and into consumer discretionary stocks such as casino companies, which are still relatively cheap but will turn into good buys once people can start spending money again. Staying with a longer view, Massey is looking at some plays in housing, though he says that will take more time to develop. Others, though, are looking at more immediate moves, reasoning that once volatility comes back to the market the investing climate will be a bit cloudier than now.
"If you take it when you can get it and it fits the basic philosophy you have about managing your money, God bless," said Diane de Vries Ashley, managing partner at Zenith Capital Partners in Coral Gables, Fla. "We're dipping in slowly. We're sellers of risk and we find this is a nice time to do that." Ashley says her firm is especially bullish on energy, particularly in the alternative space, and is selling some puts and buying calls on the options side. "We're not unhappy with what we're seeing. We're not as pure (with optimism) as some other folks, but we're not unhappy with the sheer optimism," she said. "We're OK with this market, but I wouldn't invest every dime I have in this market right now."
Among the other bullish arguments is a belief that many investors scared by the precipitous drop following the October 2007 all-time highs remain outside of stocksthe "money on the sidelines" argument. Some 21 percent of cash from high net worth individuals remains outside stocks, according to Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch. Inflows to funds also remains light, which BofA-Merill Lynch calls a contrarian bullish signal.
Track fund performance here
In a research note, the company earlier this week reaffirmed its 1,055-1,065 target this year for the Standard & Poor's 500 . But because the market is catching up to that number, a temporary pullback could be in the wings. "It would be reasonable then to expect the equity markets to correct, so we will begin to look for negative divergences," analyst Mary Ann Bartels wrote. "History suggests a decline between 20%-30% would not be unreasonable to expect."
That sentiment has generated a bit of caution amid the bullishness."This short-term rally I believe is going to continue, but it's going to be a rocky road," Bob Iaccino, of LotusBrokerage.com said on CNBC . For now, many investors seem willing to ride the wave, even if there are a few chills and spills along the way.
"The tendency is for people to be skeptical about recovery and skeptical that the rally can continue," Bruce McCain, head of strategy at Key Private Bank, told CNBC. "We still think that there's quite a bit of cash on the sidelines from people who may be in bonds or in other sorts of investments that will come back to equities and drive this thing further."
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