Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIZ9)
Indeks Nikkei ditutup turun 0,66% hari ini, menyusul merosotnya saham-saham eksportir seperti Toyota Motor Corp karena nilai tukar yen yang mencatat level terkuatnya dalam 7 bulan terakhir di bawah level 91.00 terhadap dollar. Indeks Nikkei ditutup jatuh 69,34 poin, atau 0,66%, ke posisi 10.444,33, setelah menguat 2% kemarin, dimana indeks membukukan kenaikan harian terbesar dalam dua pekan terakhir.
Indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel kendati menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle harami cross, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini. Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD berada di teritorial bullish, seharusnya masih membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks saat ini berada dalam wave koreksi 2/B dalam koreksi ABC dalam subwave (4). Resistance di 10545 (upper channel)/10680 (former high). Support 10345 (channel support)/10,235 (daily low). Perkiraan range hari ini 10300-10550. Rekomendasi Sell 10540 target 10200 stp 100p, Buy 10150 target 10450 stop 100p, buy 10,000 target 10400, Sell 10,680 target 10,400. (-100p) Chart SSIZ9 4-Jam
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSZ9)
Akhiri perdagangan pekan ini, indeks Kospi berhasil menguat dimana saham peritel dan bank pimpin kenaikan. Namun, jatuhnya saham eksportir hambat penguatan indeks lebih jauh. Saham eksportir seperti LG Electronics dan Hyundai Motor jatuh menyusul penguatan won yang dikhawatirkan dapat menurunkan daya saing barang-barang Korsel di luar negeri. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup naik 7,02 poin, atau 0,43%, ke posisi 1.651,70 poin, setelah menyentuh level 1.653,77, level tertinggi sejak Juli tahun lalu.
Indeks kembali menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle high wave dibarengi signal divergence negatif (volume), seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan indeks. Kendati masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, dengan Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD masih bullish & divergence, seharusnya mendukung membatasi potensi kenaikan. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks di wave 5/3. Resistance di 217.80 (upper channel)/218.70 (trendline). Support 214.20/210.40. Rekomendasi Buy 210.40 & 206.00 target 213.00 stop 100p, Sell 217.80 & 218.70 target 210.50, Sell break 209.00 target 206.00 stop 60p. Buy 203.00 target 207.50 stop 50p. (-100) Chart KSZ9 4-Jam
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak September (HSIU9)
Bursa Hong Kong berhasil menguat 0,44% dalam perdagangan Jumat lalu, sekaligus membukukan level penutupan tertinggi dalam 1 tahun terakhir. Penguatan indeks ditopang oleh serangkaian data ekonomi Cina bulan lalu mengindikasikan ekonomi Cina terus membaik. Indeks Hang Seng telah menguat 1600 poin sejak Rabu lalu. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup naik 91,86 poin, atau 0,44%, ke posisi 21.161,42, level penutupan tertinggi sejak Agustus 2008.
Dalam chart daily, Indeks menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle evening star (indikasi reversal) meski masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, seharusnya dukung potensi penurunan. Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD bullish & divergence, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan. Indeks akan mendapatkan sejumlah resistance 21320/21485. Support di 20830/20410 Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan proses impulse 3/ 5 . Rekomendasi : Buy 20450 target 21000 stop 60p. Sell 21300 & 21480 target 20,850 stop 100p. Sell break 20800 target 20450 stop 100p. Buy 20850 target 21450 stop 100p, Buy 19750 target 20200, sell break 19700 target 19450 stop 100p. (+100p) Chart HSIU9 1-Jam
Monday, September 14, 2009
Rilisan Data Ekonomi AS & Teknikal Memberikan Peluang Buy on Weakness Euro & Pound
EUR-USD
(+180+40p) Euro masih menunjukkan pola bullish continuation dalam uptrend channel, kendati menunjukan pola candle stalled. Indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Support di 1.4480/1.4350. Resistance berada di 1.4635 (161.8) /1.4780. Euro menunjukkan impulse wave 5/3 untuk target 1.4635/1.4780, selama tidak menembus 1.4445. Buy 1.4450 target 1.4780, Buy 1.4260 target 1.4500 stop 1.4200, sell breakl 1.4370 target 1.4250 stop 60p. sell 1.4635 & 1.4780 target 1.4400, buy 1.4120 trgt 1.4350. stop 160 poin, sell break 1.4200 tgt 1.4000.
USD-JPY
(-100p+50p) USDJPY menunjukkan pola candle long bearish dan berada dalam pola downtrend channel dengan resistance di 92.45. Penutupan dibawah channel di 92.10 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low kemarin di 90.00/89.65 (former low). Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan selama bertahan di dbawah 92.45. Resistance berada di 91.45/92.45, support di 90.40/89.65. Sell 91.40 target 90.00 stop 60p.buy break 92.50 target 94.60 stop 60p. Sell 94.60 stop 60p target 91.50 & sell 92.50 target 91.70 stop 92.00. Buy 90.00 target 92.40 stop 89.50. Buy 89.65.
GBP-USD
(+120p) GBP menunjukkan pola bullish continuation diikuti signal breakout channel dan berada di atas middle channel di 1.6667, diikuti indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas 1.6533. EW menunjukkan GBP berada dalam wave impulse a/4. Buy 1.6500 target 1.6750 stop 1.6450. sell break 1.6450 target 1.6200 stop 60p, buy 1.6200 target 1.6550. Sell break 1.5950 target 1.5800 stop 60p. Sell 1.6800 target 1.6550 stop 60p. Buy 1.6620 target 1.6800.
AUD-USD
AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka pendek, diikuti pola bullish continuation (long bullish candle) sementara indikator ADX lmenguat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan selama di tutup diatas downchannel 0.8605. Resistance di 0.86957/0.8750, support di 0.8580/0.8475. Buy 0.8580 target 0.8690, sell 0.8690 target 0.8500 & sell 0.8800 stop 0.8620, buy 0.8400 target 0.8650.
(+180+40p) Euro masih menunjukkan pola bullish continuation dalam uptrend channel, kendati menunjukan pola candle stalled. Indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Support di 1.4480/1.4350. Resistance berada di 1.4635 (161.8) /1.4780. Euro menunjukkan impulse wave 5/3 untuk target 1.4635/1.4780, selama tidak menembus 1.4445. Buy 1.4450 target 1.4780, Buy 1.4260 target 1.4500 stop 1.4200, sell breakl 1.4370 target 1.4250 stop 60p. sell 1.4635 & 1.4780 target 1.4400, buy 1.4120 trgt 1.4350. stop 160 poin, sell break 1.4200 tgt 1.4000.
USD-JPY
(-100p+50p) USDJPY menunjukkan pola candle long bearish dan berada dalam pola downtrend channel dengan resistance di 92.45. Penutupan dibawah channel di 92.10 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low kemarin di 90.00/89.65 (former low). Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan selama bertahan di dbawah 92.45. Resistance berada di 91.45/92.45, support di 90.40/89.65. Sell 91.40 target 90.00 stop 60p.buy break 92.50 target 94.60 stop 60p. Sell 94.60 stop 60p target 91.50 & sell 92.50 target 91.70 stop 92.00. Buy 90.00 target 92.40 stop 89.50. Buy 89.65.
GBP-USD
(+120p) GBP menunjukkan pola bullish continuation diikuti signal breakout channel dan berada di atas middle channel di 1.6667, diikuti indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup diatas 1.6533. EW menunjukkan GBP berada dalam wave impulse a/4. Buy 1.6500 target 1.6750 stop 1.6450. sell break 1.6450 target 1.6200 stop 60p, buy 1.6200 target 1.6550. Sell break 1.5950 target 1.5800 stop 60p. Sell 1.6800 target 1.6550 stop 60p. Buy 1.6620 target 1.6800.
AUD-USD
AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka pendek, diikuti pola bullish continuation (long bullish candle) sementara indikator ADX lmenguat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan selama di tutup diatas downchannel 0.8605. Resistance di 0.86957/0.8750, support di 0.8580/0.8475. Buy 0.8580 target 0.8690, sell 0.8690 target 0.8500 & sell 0.8800 stop 0.8620, buy 0.8400 target 0.8650.
Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Sun Sep 13 09 01:49 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's recovery was limited at 72.90 last week and reversed to fall sharply on Friday. Break of 68.96 minor support indicates that such recovery is merely a correction to fall from 75.0 and should have completed. Initial bias is flipped back to the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 67.05 first. Break will confirm fall resumption to 100% projection of 75 to 67.05 from 72.9 at 64.95 next. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, break of 72.90 is needed to indicate resumption of rise from 67.05 Otherwise, risk will remain mildly on the downside.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Question remains on whether such rally has completed at 75.0 already. Crude oil is now at important medium term trend line support. Sustained trading below will be the first alert that such rise has finished. Break of 58.32 will confirm this case and turn outlook bearish for 33.2 low next. On the upside, while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's recovery was limited at 72.90 last week and reversed to fall sharply on Friday. Break of 68.96 minor support indicates that such recovery is merely a correction to fall from 75.0 and should have completed. Initial bias is flipped back to the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 67.05 first. Break will confirm fall resumption to 100% projection of 75 to 67.05 from 72.9 at 64.95 next. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, break of 72.90 is needed to indicate resumption of rise from 67.05 Otherwise, risk will remain mildly on the downside.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Question remains on whether such rally has completed at 75.0 already. Crude oil is now at important medium term trend line support. Sustained trading below will be the first alert that such rise has finished. Break of 58.32 will confirm this case and turn outlook bearish for 33.2 low next. On the upside, while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Sun Sep 13 09 01:50 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rally extended further to as high as 1013.7 last week, and took out 1007.7 resistance as expected. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 983.2 support holds and further rise is expected to 1033.9 high. Break will target 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2. On the downside, break of 983.2 will indicate that a short term top is formed, possibly with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper pull back could be seen to 931.3/974.3 support zone before resuming up trend.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681, which is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend, should have resumed after triangle consolidation from 1007.7 has completed at 931.3. Having said that, current rally from 931.3 should extend beyond 1033.9 high to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. On the downside, break of 931.3 support is needed to be the first signal that Gold has topped out in medium term. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of deep pull back.
In the long term picture, long term rally from 1999 low of 253 turned into consolidation after completing a five wave sequence to 1033.9 in 2008. Such consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed in form of expanding triangle to 681 already and rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend. Sustained break of 1033.9 should confirm this case and target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's rally extended further to as high as 1013.7 last week, and took out 1007.7 resistance as expected. Short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 983.2 support holds and further rise is expected to 1033.9 high. Break will target 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2. On the downside, break of 983.2 will indicate that a short term top is formed, possibly with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper pull back could be seen to 931.3/974.3 support zone before resuming up trend.
In the bigger picture, rise from 681, which is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend, should have resumed after triangle consolidation from 1007.7 has completed at 931.3. Having said that, current rally from 931.3 should extend beyond 1033.9 high to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 next. On the downside, break of 931.3 support is needed to be the first signal that Gold has topped out in medium term. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of deep pull back.
In the long term picture, long term rally from 1999 low of 253 turned into consolidation after completing a five wave sequence to 1033.9 in 2008. Such consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed in form of expanding triangle to 681 already and rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend. Sustained break of 1033.9 should confirm this case and target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
6 Ways Elliott Wave Helps You Trade Better
To quote Robert Prechter, "The Wave Principle falls well short of providing a crystal ball, but it is the very best financial market model available."


By Vadim Pokhlebkin

Whether you're new or experienced Elliott wave user, you know that it's easy to follow professional wave counts in market charts. It's doing them on your own -- especially in real time, while you're trading -- that can be a challenge. Yet learning Elliott is well worth it. Why?
The following is adapted from Jeffrey's popular 2-volume Trader's Classroom collection.
Elliott Wave Benefit #1: It identifies the trend.
Elliott wave analysis is based on two types of wave development: impulsive and corrective. Impulse waves are five-wave moves (labeled 1-2-3-4-5) that identify the direction of the larger trend. In other words, a five-wave advance tells you the trend as up and a five-wave decline tells you it's down. As traders, we always want to trade in the direction of the trend. We want the wind at our backs: That is the path of least resistance. For example, the probability of success is much greater if you are long a stock when all major indexes are also rallying.
Benefit #2: Elliott wave analysis identifies countertrend moves within the trend.
Corrective waves are simply a response to the preceding impulse wave; corrections always move against the trend. They typically subdivide into three waves (A-B-C) and give us, the traders, an opportunity to position our trades in the direction of the market's larger trend.
Benefit #3: Elliott wave analysis identifies upcoming changes in trend.
Elliott waves are fractal -- i.e., self-repeating on all degrees of trend. This enables you to identify the maturity of the trend. For example, if prices are advancing in wave 5 of a larger five-wave advance, and wave 5 is close to completed its smaller 5-wave impulse -- as a trader, you know that this is not the time to be adding to long positions. Instead, it's time to think about money management: maybe take some profit or at least raise your protective stop.
Benefit #4: Elliott wave analysis confirms the resumption of the trend.
Corrections typically unfold in three waves (labeled A-B-C). When wave C exceeds the extreme of wave B, thus confirming the pattern as a three-wave structure, it implies that the larger trend has resumed.
Benefit #5: Elliott wave analysis provides high probability price targets.
When R.N. Elliott wrote Nature’s Law, he specifically stated that the Fibonacci sequence was the mathematical basis for the Wave Principle. And as time has proven, he was right. Elliott waves, both impulses and corrections, adhere to specific Fibonacci proportions.
Benefit #6: Elliott wave analysis provides specific points of ruin.Where are you wrong? This seems to be the eternal question for traders. And once again, Elliott wave analysis provides us with the answer via the Three Rules of Elliott:
Rule #1: Wave 2 can never retrace more than 100% of wave 1.
Rule #2: Wave 4 may never end in the price territory of wave 1.
Rule #3: Out of the three impulse waves 1, 3 and 5, wave 3 can never be the shortest.
Bottom line, wave analysis is not a crystal ball, but it will help you accomplish three crucial goals: Identify the trend, stay with it, and get out when the trend is likely over.


By Vadim Pokhlebkin

Whether you're new or experienced Elliott wave user, you know that it's easy to follow professional wave counts in market charts. It's doing them on your own -- especially in real time, while you're trading -- that can be a challenge. Yet learning Elliott is well worth it. Why?
The following is adapted from Jeffrey's popular 2-volume Trader's Classroom collection.
Elliott Wave Benefit #1: It identifies the trend.
Elliott wave analysis is based on two types of wave development: impulsive and corrective. Impulse waves are five-wave moves (labeled 1-2-3-4-5) that identify the direction of the larger trend. In other words, a five-wave advance tells you the trend as up and a five-wave decline tells you it's down. As traders, we always want to trade in the direction of the trend. We want the wind at our backs: That is the path of least resistance. For example, the probability of success is much greater if you are long a stock when all major indexes are also rallying.
Benefit #2: Elliott wave analysis identifies countertrend moves within the trend.
Corrective waves are simply a response to the preceding impulse wave; corrections always move against the trend. They typically subdivide into three waves (A-B-C) and give us, the traders, an opportunity to position our trades in the direction of the market's larger trend.
Benefit #3: Elliott wave analysis identifies upcoming changes in trend.
Elliott waves are fractal -- i.e., self-repeating on all degrees of trend. This enables you to identify the maturity of the trend. For example, if prices are advancing in wave 5 of a larger five-wave advance, and wave 5 is close to completed its smaller 5-wave impulse -- as a trader, you know that this is not the time to be adding to long positions. Instead, it's time to think about money management: maybe take some profit or at least raise your protective stop.
Benefit #4: Elliott wave analysis confirms the resumption of the trend.
Corrections typically unfold in three waves (labeled A-B-C). When wave C exceeds the extreme of wave B, thus confirming the pattern as a three-wave structure, it implies that the larger trend has resumed.
Benefit #5: Elliott wave analysis provides high probability price targets.
When R.N. Elliott wrote Nature’s Law, he specifically stated that the Fibonacci sequence was the mathematical basis for the Wave Principle. And as time has proven, he was right. Elliott waves, both impulses and corrections, adhere to specific Fibonacci proportions.
Benefit #6: Elliott wave analysis provides specific points of ruin.Where are you wrong? This seems to be the eternal question for traders. And once again, Elliott wave analysis provides us with the answer via the Three Rules of Elliott:
Rule #1: Wave 2 can never retrace more than 100% of wave 1.
Rule #2: Wave 4 may never end in the price territory of wave 1.
Rule #3: Out of the three impulse waves 1, 3 and 5, wave 3 can never be the shortest.
Bottom line, wave analysis is not a crystal ball, but it will help you accomplish three crucial goals: Identify the trend, stay with it, and get out when the trend is likely over.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)