Sunday, October 11, 2009
Daily Technical Analysis UNVR
UNVR (09-10) Secara teknikal UNVR masih berada dalam trend bullish, karena masih berada di atas middle channel line weekly di 9,350, breakout pola flag pekan lalu (target = 14,835:panjang 12100-7500; 4500 +10335),stochastic weekly crossover, volume menunjukkan kenaikan pada pekan ini, penutupan di 11,000 (Fibonacci Retracement 23.6% 12100-7500), seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan dengan support di 10,325. Potensi kenaikan dilihat dari pola candle long bullish, terutama jika ditutup diatas 11,200 (middle line channel minor) untuk target 12,100 (highest)/13,050 (FR 123.6)/14,800 (FR 161.8/target breakout Flag). Tetapi skenario tersebut dapat gagal, jika UNVR breakout dan tutup dibawah 10,325 (38.2% FB), target 9,250 (61.8 FR)/bahkan 7500 (low 04/08). Hitungan EW menunjukkan koreksi wave b/4 dalam wave B, yang seharusnya masih mendukung potensi final wave impulse 5 di kisaran 0.618 x wave 3 (7500-12100) di 13,050 maksmial 14,800. Rekomendasi Buy 10,750-11,000 target 12,100 stop loss 10,400. Buy breakout 12,150 target 13,050/14,800. Short jika breakout 10,150 target 9,250/7,500 (cover buy back). Disc On. Good Luck.
Daily Technical Analysis SMRA
SMRA (09-10) Secara keseluruhan masih bullish untuk trend jangka pendek, karena masih didukung oleh pola uptrend channel di weekly chart, MACD bullish, formasi rounding bottom dan pola candle three inside out (indikasi bullish reversal) dan masih bertahan di atas 550 (channel support). Sementara trend jangka menengah dan jangka panjang masih bearish, karena masih berada dibawah 744 (38.2 Fibonacci retracement 155-1700), membatasi potensi kenaikan di pekan depan. Jika SMRA gagal ditutup dibawah 550/520 (23.6% FR), dapat merubah trend jangka pendek menjadi bearish untuk target 380/295. Important resistance terletak di 700 (upper line dalam downchannel; upper line dalam uptrend channel minor), bilamana breakout dan berhasil ditutup diatas level tersebut target 745/927 (50.0 FR) dan bahkan 1182 (61.8FR) untuk periode 3-6 bulan. Rekomendasi: Buy 610/640 target 740 stop loss 575, short 550 target 460, buy break 770 target 900/930 (sell on rally target 750), breakout 940/950 (jika diikuti big vol) target 1180. Disc on. Good Luck.
Commodity Weekly Technical Outlook
Ong Focus Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil edged higher last week but momentum is so far quite unconvincing. Nevertheless, further rise is still in favor as long as 68.16 support holds. Break of 73.16 resistance will confirm that fall from 75.0 has completed at 65.05 already. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that medium term rally is still in progress for another high above 75.0 before completion. On the downside, below 68.16 will suggest that rebound from 65.05 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, medium term term outlook is quite mixed so far with crude oil still struggling around 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. The bearish case is still slightly in favor with 73.16 resistance intact. That is, medium term rebound from 44.2 has completed at 75.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. Break of 65.05 support will solidify this case and target 58.32 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 75.0 at 59.03) for confirmation. However, break of 73.16 will in turn favor the case that rise from 33.2 is still in progress for another high above 75.0. Nevertheless, strong resistance should be seen in 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) to conclude the medium term rise finally.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone even in case of another rise and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold broke prior high of 1033.9 last week and made new record high of 1062.7 before retreating mildly. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral and some retreat might be seen first. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained well above 1011.0 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 1062.7 will target 100% projection of 931.3 to 1025.8 from 952.5 at 1080 next.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1033.9 high confirms that long term up trend in Gold has resumed. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, though, break of 984.4 support will dampen this bullish view and will turn focus back to 931.3 support instead.
In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. We'll maintain this bullish view as long as 931.3 support holds.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil edged higher last week but momentum is so far quite unconvincing. Nevertheless, further rise is still in favor as long as 68.16 support holds. Break of 73.16 resistance will confirm that fall from 75.0 has completed at 65.05 already. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that medium term rally is still in progress for another high above 75.0 before completion. On the downside, below 68.16 will suggest that rebound from 65.05 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, medium term term outlook is quite mixed so far with crude oil still struggling around 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. The bearish case is still slightly in favor with 73.16 resistance intact. That is, medium term rebound from 44.2 has completed at 75.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD and RSI. Break of 65.05 support will solidify this case and target 58.32 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 75.0 at 59.03) for confirmation. However, break of 73.16 will in turn favor the case that rise from 33.2 is still in progress for another high above 75.0. Nevertheless, strong resistance should be seen in 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) to conclude the medium term rise finally.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone even in case of another rise and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold broke prior high of 1033.9 last week and made new record high of 1062.7 before retreating mildly. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral and some retreat might be seen first. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained well above 1011.0 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 1062.7 will target 100% projection of 931.3 to 1025.8 from 952.5 at 1080 next.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1033.9 high confirms that long term up trend in Gold has resumed. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, though, break of 984.4 support will dampen this bullish view and will turn focus back to 931.3 support instead.
In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. We'll maintain this bullish view as long as 931.3 support holds.
Poll: US Economy Rebounded Strongly in Third Quarter
The U.S. economy likely grew at its strongest rate in two years during the third quarter, rebounding from a steep downturn that began in December 2007, according to survey of top economists released Saturday. Private economists polled Oct. 5-6 for the Blue Chip Economic Indicators October survey said gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 3.2 percent in the quarter, up 0.2 percentage point from what they estimated a month earlier.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33253078
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33253078
Weekeahead: U.S. stocks look to bottom lines to keep on top
(MarketWatch) -- The U.S. stock market is depending on third-quarter corporate results to do the heavy lifting in the coming week, with investors looking for proof of a recovery priced into U.S. equities' rapid climb. A slew of heavyweights in the banking, consumer and tech sectors will report quarterly earnings, including Intel Corp. (INTC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Google, Inc. (GOOG), Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and General Electric Co. (GE).
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/41be850f-4e5e-4f08-ad71-ca625d892baa/0
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/next-weeks-top-11-earnings-intc-jnj-abt-jpm-c-gs-goog-ibm-bac-ge-hal-2009-10-09
http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/41be850f-4e5e-4f08-ad71-ca625d892baa/0
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/next-weeks-top-11-earnings-intc-jnj-abt-jpm-c-gs-goog-ibm-bac-ge-hal-2009-10-09
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