Laju Kenaikan Indeks Saham Asia Akan Terbatas Pekan Ini

Laporan Pasar
Nikkei Futures Kontrak Desember (SSIZ9)
Indeks Nikkei ditutup menguat 0,15% dalam perdagangan akhir pekan lalu, dipimpin naiknya saham mesin konstruksi berkat harapan baiknya ekonomi Cina. Saham Kirin Holdings berhasil rebound setelah perusahaan pialang meng-upgrade-nya. Tapi Japan Airlines (JAL) ditutup anjlok hampir 7% setelah harian bisnis NIkkei melaporkan beberapa kreditor maskapai itu memintanya untuk mengurangi modal. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup naik 15,82 poin, atau 0,15%, ke posisi 10.282,99.
Nikkei memberikan signal negatif dari pola meeting lines yang menunjukkan potensi reversal, meski berada dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas, meski secara keseluruhan trend bullish jangka pendek. Sementara indikator stochastic overbought dan MACD bullish, ADX menurun, dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Indeks masih berada diatas 10150 mendukung potensi kenaikan. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada di wave 4/c dalam wave 4. Resistance di 10385/10450. Support 10230 (low)/10140. Rekomendasi: Buy 10150 target 10450 stp 10.000, buy 9980 target 10450 stop 10080. Sell 10450 target 10150 stop 60p. (+170+100p) Chart SSIZ9 Daily
Kospi Futures Kontrak Desember (KSZ9)
Saham otomotif bawa indeks Kospi ditutup pada teritorial positif akhir pekan lalu, menyusul hasil laporan keuangan Kia Motor yang mengesankan. Namun, merosotnya saham konstruksi Daewoo Engineering membuat laju indeks tersendat. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup menguat 9,84 poin, atau 0,6%, ke posisi 1.640,17 poin.
Indeks menunjukkan signal netral dari pola candle doji dan pola diamond setelah sebelumnya menunjukkan bearish candle (indikasi konsolidasi) dalam pola uptrend channel, dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas, meski indeks gagal ditutup diatas 50.0% di 217.00, stochastic flat, volume menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, Indikator ADX flat, MACD netral, ikut dukung potensi konsolidasi. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks di wave 2/a dalam 4. Resistance 216.30/219.50. Support 211.50/209.60. Rekomendasi: Buy 211.50 target 218.00 stop 100p, Sell 221.00 target 214.00, sell 216.00 target 211.50 stop 60p, sell break 213.70 target 211.50. (+80p) Chart KSZ9 4-Jam
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Oktober (HSIV9)
Indeks Hang Seng berhasil menguat 1,71% Jumat lalu, sekaligus mencatat level penutupan tertinggi dalam 14 bulan terakhir. Rebound ini dipimpin saham keuangan, ditambah dengan likuiditas yang berlimpah membuat investor semakin yakin akan penguatan selanjutnya. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup melonjak 379,21 poin, atau 1,71%, ke posisi 22.589,73.
Indeks menunjukkan signal positif dari pola kicking bullish (indikasi bullish continuation) dan berada di dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan. Sementara indikator ADX koreksi, MACD bullish & stochastic overbought, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan kenaikan terbatas. Indeks mendapatkan resistance 22650/22860. Support di 22380/2210. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan koreksi wave c/B. Rekomendasi: Buy 22200 target 22600 stop 100p. Sell 22850 target 22200 stop 100p. Buy 21980 target 22200. stop 100p. Sell break 21850 target 21600 stop 100p, Sell break 21500 target 21000 stop 100p. (+50p) Chart HSIV9 Daily
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Weekly Commodity Fundamental & Technical Outlook

ONG Focus - Insights Written by Oil N' Gold
Strong economic data from China thrilled the market and the biggest beneficiary was industrial metals. In the near-term, we believe the complex has limited downside as strong potential end-use demand from China together with supply disruption in come mines are going to push prices higher.USD's weakness continued to drive capitals to risky assets such as stocks and commodities. The dollar index plummeted to 14-month low of 74.97 Wednesday before recovering. However, the index stayed at low level of 75.46. Against the euro, USD breached 1.5 and this made the USD's outlook more bearish. Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index gained for the 4th week by rising +1.5% o 280.34.

http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/insights/weekly-fundamental-outlook-for-energies-and-metals-macro-environment-continued-to-be-the-major-price-driver-200910259441/

ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally extended further to as high as 82.0 last week and met mentioned target of 100% projection of 58.32 to 75 from 65.05 at 81.72. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, an intraday top should be in place and some sideway should be seen. Nevertheless, as long as 77.61 minor support holds, consolidation should be relatively brief and a break of 82, will bring rally resumption towards 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. However, note that a break of 77.61 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and deeper decline should then be seen to 75 resistance turned support first.In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27, might still be in progress. But after all, we expect such rebound to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2). Hence, focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise. A break of trend line support (now at 69.14) will be the first signal of topping and further break of 65.05 will confirm and turn outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.




















ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Gold's sideway consolidation from 1072 continued last week and is possibly developing into triangle pattern. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 931.3 to 1072 at 1018.3 and bring rally resumption. Break of 1072 high will target 1100 psychological resistance next. However, note that strong break of 1018.3 fibo level will argue dampen this bullish case and argue that deeper fall is in progress for 985.5 support instead.In the bigger picture, the long term up trend in Gold has resumed after taking out 1033.9 resistance firmly. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, though, break of 985.5 support will dampen this bullish view and will turn focus back to 931.3 support instead.

In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. We'll maintain this bullish view as long as 931.3 support holds.

Weekahead: Stocks Could Struggle Amid 'Buyer's Fatigue'

CNBC.COM 
Stocks could struggle in the week ahead as the market's 7-month rally shows signs of tiring. There is another barrage of third quarter earnings reports, including names like ExxonMobil, Procter and Gamble, Aetna and Verizon .

But investor focus should shift to economic news with the first look Thursday at third quarter GDP. The number is significant in that it should mark the end of the recession with the first quarter of growth since second quarter, 2008.

http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33455514&all=1

Earnings Season: Five Things We've Learned So Far

CNBC.COM 
A cursory look at quarterly earnings this month suggests corporate America is regaining its foothold and ready to run again. But a look at the stock market's reaction indicates otherwise. So goes the dichotomy of third-quarter earnings, in which positive surprises have outweighed the negative by about 4 to 1 though stock gains have been muted.

In fact, since the Dow crossed 10,000 on Oct. 14, stocks have done almost nothing despite a flurry of beats from some of Wall Street's biggest names. Investors' reaction, in fact, has been decidedly undecisive to all the seemingly good news.

http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33449582&all=1

Options Trading Shows ‘No Hint’ of U.S. Dollar Crisis, RBS Says

(Bloomberg) -- Options trading suggests the euro is nearing the end of its advance against the U.S. dollar and there is “no hint of a crisis” in the world’s main reserve currency, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

“There are surprisingly few signs of real fears of an outsized euro-U.S. dollar move to the upside,” Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a note today. “The market appears to be taking an appropriate view that we are sucking the last juice out of the short U.S. dollar trade that probably has a maximum of 10 big figures left in it to $1.60 versus the euro.” A short position is a bet that a currency will depreciate.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aL6ONAxoHXEc