Outlook Pekan Ini: Potensi Penurunan IHSG Pekan Ini Terbatas

Market Review
Sejumlah sentimen negatif dari dalam dan luar negeri mendorong kejatuhan IHSG yang mengalami pergerakan yang volatile di pekan lalu, dimana kekhawatiran terhadap kemelut antara Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi (KPK) – Polri yang telah menyeret nama RI-1, imbas penguatan dolar AS terhadap rupiah ke level tertinggi Rp 9.700, katalis negatif dari isu repo saham PT Bumi Resouces (isu repo dihargai Rp 2.400) dan aksi forced sell dan margin calls portofolio investor dalam jumlah besar, telah merontokkan IHSG ke level terendah 2,236 di akhir pekan lalu. IHSG juga mendapatkan sejumlah katalis negatif dari kondisi eksternal yang tidak mendukung. Dimana sejumlah analis AS menurunkan rating saham perbankan AS dan sejumlah data ekonomi AS tercatat dibawah prediksi pasar (Consumer Confidence CB, Sentiment Michigan, Home Sales, Personal Spending, meski GDP Q3 AS tercatat diatas prediksi pasar) diikuti sejumlah earning kuartal 3 2009 sejumlah emiten di regional Asia
tercatat dibawah prediksi analis, imbas penurunan harga komoditas global (harga minyak anjlok ke US$ 76/barel dari tertinggi US$ 81.50/barel) berkat penguatan dolar AS terhadap mata uang global, terkoreksinya indeks saham regional Asia dari kekhawawatiran kebijakan pengetatan moneter di China, India dan Hong Kong, ikut menjadi biang pemicu terkoreksi tajamnya saham domestik. Meski laju penurunan IHSG dapat dibatasi oleh sejumlah laporan keuangan emiten di kuartal 3 2009 yang tercatat lebih baik dari prediksi pasar. IHSG anjlok 100,25 poin (-4.06%) pekan lalu, ditutup di 2.367,70. Hari Jumat (30/10), IHSG naik 23,67 poin (+1,00%) menjadi 2.467,95. Investor asing bukukan net sell Rp 410,54 miliar, dibandingkan net sell Rp 1,8 triliun (23/10).

Indeks saham Asia mencatat penurunan mingguan terbesar dalam 1 bulan karena terkoreksinya harga komoditi dan mengecewakannya hasil laporan keuangan sejumlah emiten yang meredam keyakinan ekonomi global dapat mempertahankan pemulihannya. Indeks MSCI Asia Pasific anjlok 2.6% menjadi 116,46 pekan lalu, penurunan tertajam sejak pekan 5 Oktober, dan melemah 1,3 persen di bulan lalu. Indeks telah menguat selama 7 bulan berturut-turut hingga bulan September (naik 65%) berkat spekulasi stimulus pemerintah global dan kebijakan moneter yang lebih lunak akan mempercepat laju pemulihan global. Di bulan lalu, laporan laju penurunan ekspor China melambat, industri jasa AS meningkat untuk pertama kali di tahun ini dan kejutan bank sentral Australia dan Norwegia menaikkan suku bunga dan memberikan signal akan menaikkan suku bunga di bulan mendatang. Sejumlah analis melihat mahalnya valuasi saham AS, meski data pertumbuhan ekonomi AS kuartal 3 2009, tercatat diatas
prediksi pasar, gagal memberikan support kepada indeks Asia.

IHSG Outlook
IHSG pada pekan ini diperkirakan akan mendapatkan tekanan di awal pekan in, berkat katalis negatif dari dalam dan luar negeri yang membayangi kinerja IHSG yang saat ini telah berada dalam trend penurunan baik trend jangka pendek hingga jangka panjang. Kisruhnya antara KPK – Polri yang dapat mengganggu ikli investasi di tanah air, keraguan mengenai tim Ekonomi KBI 2 dan rencana penerbitan obligasi denominasi dolar AS PT Bumi Resources (5 November 2009) dari isu dalam negeri. Diikuti meningkatnya isu negatif dari luar negeri seperti potensi penguatan dolar AS terhadap rupiah dan mata uang global lainnya, berkat rontoknya harga saham Wall Street dan penurunan harga komoditi global, meningkatnya kekhawatiran mengenai rencana kenaikan suku bunga China, India dan Hong Kong, sektor perbankan AS setelah sejumlah analis menurunkan rating saham emiten bank AS dan isu kebangkrutan CIT Group meski mendapatkan bantuan dari investor Carl Icahn dan Goldman Sachs,
laporan anjloknya tingkat konsumsi rakyat AS di bulan September dan sentimen Michigan AS anjlok di bulan Oktober, menjelang pertemuan bank sentral AS (FOMC Meeting – 03 & 04 November), dapat bebani kinerja IHSG awal pekan ini.













(Chart Weekly Dolar Rupiah: Trend bearish, meski oversold, potensi penurunan terbatas, perkiraan range pekan ini Rp 9.450-9.750)

Meski musim laporan keuangan emiten kuartal 3 2009, pada akhir pekan lalu yang positif, dimana mayoritas hasil lapkeu saham unggulan tercatat lebih baik dari periode sebelumnya (BMRI, BBRI, TLKM, BBCA, JSMR, GGRM, HSMP, SMGR, SMCB), menjelang rilisan data ekspor-impor, inflasi RI bulan Oktober (02-11-2009), diperkirakan akan lebih rendah dari bulan September (BPS: prediksi dibawah 0,5% m/m) karena penurunan harga komoditi paska lebaran, dimana mendorong perkiraan Bank Indonesia tetap mempertahankan suku bunga acuan 6,5% di awal bulan ini, dapat membatasi laju penurunan IHSG di awal pekan ini.

Sementara perkiraan BI akan pertahankan suku bunga acuan 6.50% (04 November), RBA Australia akan menaikkan suku bunga 25 bsp pada 3 November, the Fed masih akan mempertahankan suku bunga acuan Fed fund di kisaran 0 – 0,25% pada pekan ini (03-04 Nov), diikuti potensi data ISM Manufacturing AS (02-11) dan data Non Farm Payroll AS (06-11) akan tercatat lebih baik dari prediksi pasar, seharusnya dapat meningkatkan daya tarik kepada investor untuk akumulasi sejumlah saham domestik yang memiliki isu positif dari hasil lapkeu Q3 2009 dan rencana ekspansi/aksi korporasi di akhir pekan ini (05-06 November 2009), meski pergerakan saham grup Bakrie patut diwaspadai (isu lapkeu Q3 dan obligasi BUMI), dimana dapat membatasi perkiraan laju penguatan IHSG.
.
Stock Picks:Average last 18 week +91.48%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy - 03/11: BBRI 7.500/ BMRI 4.650//PTBA 14.800/ADRO 1.590 /PGAS 3.675/SDRA 330/INKP 1.870/AKRA 1.170/BSDE 710/SMGR 6.750 /SMRA 595.
Buy (03/11): BMRI/BBCA/BBRI/ADRO/INCO/PGAS/SDR/BSDE/SMCB/ASII
Buy on weakness: BUMI/ENRG/HEXA/MEDC/SMRA Global Outlook

Indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street diperkirakan akan mengalami tekanan lebih lanjut dari sejumlah isu negatif dari isu kebangkrutan CIT Group yang mengajukan chapter 11 di AS, meski mendapatkan bantuan dari investor Carl Icahn dan Goldman Sachs di akhir pekan, diikuti data ekonomi AS yang mengecewakan di akhir pekan lalu (Personal Spending, Sentiment U Michigan), diikuti penurunan harga komoditi global, dapat picu aksi profit taking hari Senin. Meski indeks saham regional dan Wall Street diprediksi dapat mengalami technical rebound di pertengahan pekan ini (03-06 Nov) berkat data manufacturing China bulan Oktober meningkat ke 55.2 (tertinggi dalam 18 bulan), perkiraan data ISM Manufacturing AS dirilis hari Senin (02/11) dan perkiraan bank sentral Australia akan menaikkan suku bunga 25 bsp pada pertemuan RBA hari Selasa (03/10) dan menjelang pertemuan bank sentral AS (03-04 Nov), bank sentral Eropa (ECB) & bank sentral Inggris (BOE) diperkirakan
pertahankan suku bunga, hingga data tenaga kerja AS hari Jumat (Non Farm Payroll diprediksi -175K dari -263K, Unemployment +9.9% dari 9.8%) dapat memberikan support kepada indeks saham global. Meksi valuasi fundamental saham indeks S&P 500 dan MSCI World Index relatif mahal, diikuti kondisi teknikal yang menunjukkan potensi penurunan (Chart: weekly DJIA menunjukkan signal reversal dari weekly breakout rising wedge, wave (3), monthly candle doji star), dapat batasi laju dari potensi technical rebound pekan ini.














Earning Emiten AS pekan ini:
Senin: Ford, Clorox, Humana, Loews, CNA, Sysco and Dean Foods.
Selasa: Archer-Daniels, Emerson Electric, AmerisourceBergen, MasterCard, Marvel Entertainment, Medco, Polo Ralph Lauren, Viacom and Vornado. Kraft, Hartford Financial.
Rabu: Time Warner, Total, Automatic Data, Baker Hughes, Becton Dickinson, Comcast, Devin Energy, El Paso, Foster Wheeler, Marsh McLennan, Molson Coors, Nissan, Cisco, Allstate, Murphy Oil, News Corp
Kamis: Toyota, Cigna, CVS Caremark, MGM Mirage, Sara Lee, Thomson Reuters, Unilever, Dynegy, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Teradata, Kimco Realty and Nasdaq OMX report ahead of the bell. Jumat: Starbucks, Public Storage, NVIDIA, CBS, International Game Technology, Activision Blizzard, Crocs and Vera Sign. Fortress, Mirant, Edison International.

Technical Analysis:
IHSG diperkirakan masih berada dalam trend bearish jangka pendek (Bear Market Rally???), setelah pekan lalu menembus double bottom support di 2,271, meski berhasil ditutup diatas level tersebut (false break?), karena sejumlah signal negatif terlihat dalam chart monthly: dark cloud cover (indikasi strong bearish reversal); weekly: candle weekly two crows (indikasi bearish continuation) dan daily chart menunjukkan candle downside tasuki (indikasi bearish continuation), ADX menunjukkan uptrend, Stochastic berada dalam teritorial overbought, meski MACD masih berada dalam teritorial positif, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas dan cenderung ditutup melemah pekan ini. Sementara trend jangka menengah masih bullish selama ditutup diatas channel support & 5 week MA di 2.297 untuk target 2.410-2.550. Jika ditutup di bawah level 2.297, IHSG dapat terkoreksi lebih lanjut di pekan mendatang ke target 2.137 (down channel support)/2.090. Hitungan EW
menunjukkan IHSG telah menyelesaikan wave 3/5, saat ini daam proses wave koreksi minor ABC dalam wave 5/B.
Resistance: 2421.80/2483.94/2542.06/2600.18. PP 2359.66
Support : 2301.54/2243.42/2181.28/2119.15
(Chart IHSG Monthly: menunjukkan signal reversal dari pola candle dark cloud cover: mendukung perkiraan range bulan ini: 2.140-2.530)













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Peluang Buy on Weakness Euro, Pound, USD-JPY Mengantisipasi FOMC, Payroll

EUR-USD
(-60p) Euro menunjukkan signal positif dari pola pola double bottom (indikasi bullish reversal) meski menunjukkan pola candle dark cloud cover, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi rebound terbatas. EUR-USD dibawah channel support 1.4900, seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Indikator ADX rebound, stochastic oversold, MACD masih bullish, dapat support potensi kenaikan. Support di 1.4680/1.4480 (former support). Resistance di 1.4770/1.4830. Euro saat ini berada dalam wave 2/b dalam B. Buy 1.4500 target 1.5000 stop 60p, hold buy 1.4700 target 1.5000, sell break 1.4660 target 1.4500 stop 60p, buy break 1.4840.
USD-JPY
(-50p) USDJPY memberikan signal negatif dari pola candle bearish engulfing dan meski di dalam down channel, menunjukkan potensi penurunan lebih lanjut. Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD di teritorial positif & stochastic bearish mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas, mendorong perkiraan USD-JPY berada dalam range 89-92. Resistance berada di 90.50/91.30, support di 89.60/89.10. Saat ini berada di wave 4/B. Sell 92.00 target 90.00 stop 60p, sell 92.00 target 90.00, buy 90.30 target 91.80 stop 50p. Buy 88.50 target 91.00, buy break 90.60 target 92.30 stop 60p. Sell break 89.20 target 88.50 stop 30p.
GBP-USD
(-60p) GBP menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle bearish engulfing (indikasi bearish reversal), didukung indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic oversold, MACD rebound, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas meski bertahan diatas 1.6305 (channel support). GBP berada dalam trend bullish setelah ditutup diatas 1.6240. Hitungan EW menunjukkan GBP di wave 1/b dalam A. Sell break 1.6280 target 1.6130 stop 60p, sell 1.6600 & 1.6750 target 1.6400 stop 60p, buy break 1.620 target 1.6600 stop 60p, Buy 1.6130 target 1.6450 stop 30p, sell break 1.6100 target 1.5900 stop 60p, buy 1.6340 target 1.6600 stop 60p
AUD-USD
(+120p) Potensi penurunan AUD diperkirakan terbatas karena menunjukkan pola candle stick sandwich (signal netral), meski berada di uptrend channel, diikuti ADX meningkat, MACD & stochastic crossover turun, mendukung kuatnya momentum penurunan. Trend masih bullish selama AUD masih bertahan diatas trendline 0.8900 dapat menahan laju penurunan. Hitungan EW menunjukkan AUD berada di wave 4/4 dalam B. Resistance 0.9060/0.9150, support di 0.8950/0.8900. Buy break 0.9000 target 0.9200, 0.9200 target 0.9000 stop 70p, sell 0.9250 & sell break 0.8900 target 0.8750 stop 60p.

Indeks Asia Berpotensi Mengalami Technical Rebound Pekan Ini

Nikkei Futures Kontrak Desember (SSIZ9)
Mengakhiri perdagangan pekan lalu, indeks Nikkei berhasil menguat 1,45% dipimpin saham teknologi berkat prospek baiknya laporan keuangan, seperti Pioneer Corp.Sedangkan saham eksportir naik menyusul data ekonomi AS yang menunjukkan pertumbuhan di kuartal ketiga, pertumbuhan pertama dalam setahun terakhir. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup menguat 143,64 poin, atau 1,45%, ke posisi 10.034,74. Indeks Nikkei mengawali perdagangan hari ini terkoreksi tajam, dimana indeks kembali berada dibawah level 10.000. Terpuruknya bursa Wall Street pada Jumat lalu dan menguatnya yen terhadap dollar di bawah level 90, menjadi pemicu utama tertekannya Nikkei.
Nikkei memberikan signal netral dari pola candle abandoned baby (indikasi bullish reversal), seharusnya mendukung potensi technical rebound dan membatasi potensi penurunan, meski secara keseluruhan trend bearish jangka pendek. Sementara indikator stochastic dead cross dan MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, ADX menurun, dukung potensi penurunan indeks terbatas. Indeks berada di bawah 50.0 FR 10.415-9560. di 9987 mendukung penurunan.
Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada di wave iv/A dalam wave 4. Resistance di 9990/10215. Support 9830 (low)/9760. Rekomendasi: Buy 9700 target 10000 stp 9750, sell 10000 target 10800 stop 10280. Buy break 10050 target 10210 stop 60p.
Kospi Futures Kontrak Desember (KSZ9)
Indeks Kospi ditutup turun 0,33% Jumat lalu,dipimpin sektor otomotif dan teknologi, setelah diawal perdagangan sempat menguat 1,2% karena kecemasan pasar mengenai prospek bisnis di kuartal keempat. Koreksi ini terjadi meski serangkaian data ekonomi yang diumumkan cukup baik. Anjloknya penutupan bursa saham Wall Street akhir pekan lalu menyeret indeks Kospi hari ini. Sedangkan saham SK Telecom dan SK Network akan jadi fokus, setelah SK C&C dijadwalkan IPO hari ini. Saham komoditas seperti SK Energy akan menjadi fokus menyusul jatuhnya harga minyak dan tembaga. Indeks menunjukkan signal bearish dari pola candle abandoned baby dan dalam pola downtrend channel, mendukung potensi penurunan, stochasstic cross down, volume menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD down, ikut dukung potensi penurunan terbatas dan berpotensi rebound. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks di wave 5/a dalam 4. Resistance 206.25/208.60. Support 202.60/200.80. Rekomendasi: Buy break 204.70 target 206.25 stop 100p, sell 206.25 target 203.90 stop 60p, sell break 203.15 target 201.60, buy 202.00 target 205.45.
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Nopember (HSIX9)
Indeks Hang Seng ditutup menguat 2,29% Jumat lalu, penguatan harian terbesar dalam 6 pekan terakhir. Rally ini didorong saham bank menyusul kinerja keuangan yang memuaskan dari industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC). Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup melonjak 487,88 poin, atau 2,29%, ke posisi 21.752,87. Hang Seng terancam koreksi Saham Hong Kong diperkirakan melemah hari ini, setelah mencatat penguatan harian terbesar dalam 6 minggu terakhir Jumat lalu. Koreksi ini kemungkinan dilatarbelakangi lesunya pembelanjaan konsumen AS dan rendahnya sentimen mereka, yang meningkatkan kecemasan mengenai tingkat pemulihan ekonomi terbesar dunia itu.Indeks menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle inverted hammer (indikasi bearish continuation)dalam sebuah down channel dapat menekan indeks lebih jauh. Tetapi indikator ADX melemah, MACD down & stochastic dead cross, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan hari ini. Indeks mendapatkan resistance 21880/22250. Support di 21350/21060. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan koreksi wave 4/C. Rekomendasi: Buy 21000 & 20850 target 21650 stop 100p. Sell 21850 target 21400 stop 100p. Sell break 21350 target 21000. stop 100p. Sell break 20750 target 20550 stop 100p. (+200p)
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Weekly Technical Commodity Outlook

Weekly Fundamental Outlook for Energies and Metals - Commodities Remain Sensitive to Data Flows as Few Evidence Supporting Demand Recovery

ONG Focus - Insights
Written by Oil N' Gold
Rebound in USD and correction in risky assets (including stock and commodity prices) signaled reversal of market sentiment in the near-term. Disappointing confidence and home sales data in US shook investors' confidence in global market recovery. The dollar index rebounded +1.1% to close at 76.3 while Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index lost -3.5% to settle at 270.38.The focus next week will be on monetary policy again as all of the Fed, ECB, BOE and RBA will meet to discuss about rate. While the first 3 central banks will keep the policy rates unchanged, the RBA is expected to raise the cash target rate by 25 bps again.

http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/insights/weekly-fundamental-outlook-for-energies-and-metals-commodities-remain-sensitive-to-data-flows-as-few-evidence-supporting-demand-recovery-200910319558/

ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's correction from 82.00 continued last week. Despite intra-week strong recovery, crude oil was limited below 82.00 high and weakened to new weekly low on Friday, indicating that such consolidation is still in progress. Initial bias is on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 65.05 to 82 at 75.53 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 71.52. On the upside, break of 80.46 minor resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 82.00 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, with daily MACD crossed below signal line, a short term top should at least be in place at 82.00. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, whole medium term rebound might have completed too. FOcus now turns to trend line support (now at 70.48). Break there will add more credence to this case and bring deeper decline to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. On the upside, above 82.00 will indicate that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.




















ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold fell further to as low as 1026.9 but was supported above mentioned 38.2% retracement of 931.3 to 1072 at 1018.3 and recovered. An intraday low should be in place and initial bias is neutral this week. While some more sideway trading might still be seen, short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1018.3 fibonacci support holds. Break of 1072 high will bring rally resumption to 1100 psychological level next. On the downside, however, decisive break of 1018.3 will indicate that recent rise has completed and deeper decline should be seen to 985.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 985.0) instead.

In the bigger picture, the long term up trend in Gold has resumed after taking out 1033.9 resistance firmly. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, though, break of 985.5 support will dampen this bullish view and will turn focus back to 931.3 support instead.

In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. However, break of 931.3 support will indicate that medium term rise from 681 has possibly completed. This will also open up the case that long term consolidation from 1033.9 is not completed yet and has just started the third falling leg.

Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (02 - 06 November 2009)

Date Waktu setempat Currency Actual Forecast Previous
Mon
Nov 2 2:00am CAD Daylight Saving Time Shift
2:00am USD Daylight Saving Time Shift
5:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 51.7 52.0
6:30pm AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m -0.3% 0.0%
7:30pm AUD HPI q/q 4.2% 3.1% 4.2%
8:30pm JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y -1.6% -2.0% -2.7%
9:30pm CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI 55.4 55.0
12:30am
AUD Commodity Prices y/y -32.3%
3:30am CHF SVME PMI 55.1 54.3
4:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 50.9 50.7
4:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.5
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 53.1 52.6
10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.2% 6.4%
10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m -0.3% 0.8%
10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 64.1 63.5
Tentative CHF Gov Board Member Jordan Speaks
3:00pm USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
4:45pm NZD Labor Cost Index q/q 0.3% 0.3%
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
9:00pm NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m 6.8%
10:30pm AUD Cash Rate 3.50% 3.25%
10:30pm AUD RBA Rate Statement
Tue
Nov 3 3rd-6th GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.8% 1.6%
4:30am GBP Construction PMI 47.2 46.7
10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m 1.1% -0.8%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 9.7M 9.2M
12:00pm EUR Buba President Weber Speaks
Tentative USD Loan Officer Survey
5:30pm AUD AIG Services Index 49.3
6:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y 4.5%
7:01pm GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 72 71
7:01pm GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y -0.1%
7:30pm AUD Building Approvals m/m 2.4% -0.1%
7:30pm AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.9%
9:30pm JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
Wed
Nov 4 4:00am EUR Final Services PMI 52.3 52.3
4:30am GBP Services PMI 55.4 55.3
5:00am EUR PPI m/m -0.3% 0.4%
7:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -30.2%
8:05am CAD Gov Council Member Murray Speaks
8:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -188K -254K
10:00am USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 51.6 50.9
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.8M
2:15pm USD FOMC Statement
2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%
4:45pm NZD Employment Change q/q -0.3% -0.4%
4:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate 6.4% 6.0%
6:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
7:30pm AUD Trade Balance -2.16B -1.52B
Thu
Nov 5 1:45am CHF SECO Consumer Climate -37 -42
3:15am CHF CPI m/m 0.6% 0.0%
3:55am AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
4:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 1.1% -1.9%
4:30am GBP Industrial Production m/m 1.2% -2.5%
5:00am EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.3% -0.2%
7:00am GBP Asset Purchase Facility 225B 175B
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
7:00am GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
7:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate 1.00% 1.00%
8:30am CAD Building Permits m/m 1.3% 7.2%
8:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 519K 530K
8:30am USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 6.1% 6.6%
8:30am USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q -3.7% -5.9%
10:00am CAD Ivey PMI 60.9 61.7
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 25B
5:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 50.8
7:01pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate 0.0%
Tentative GBP BOE Financial Stability Report
7:30pm AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Fri
Nov 6 12:00am JPY Leading Indicators 86.4% 83.2%
1:20am AUD RBA Deputy Gov Battellino Speaks
1:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 4.2% 4.1%
2:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -127.6B
2:45am EUR French Trade Balance -3.1B -3.4B
4:30am GBP PPI Input m/m 1.6% -0.5%
4:30am GBP PPI Output m/m 0.4% 0.5%
Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings
6:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 1.0% 1.4%
7:00am CAD Employment Change 10.3K 30.6K
7:00am CAD Unemployment Rate 8.4% 8.4%
8:30am USD Non-Farm Employment Change -173K -263K
8:30am USD Unemployment Rate 9.9% 9.8%
8:30am USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.1% 0.1%
9:45am USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m -0.9% -1.3%
11:30am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
3:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m -9.9B -12.0B
Sat
Nov 7 Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings