(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may decline next week as U.S. fuel stockpiles increase and refineries reduce operating rates because of weak demand in the world’s biggest energy- consuming country. Fourteen of 28 analysts, or 50 percent, said futures will drop through Nov. 20, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. Six respondents, or 21 percent, predicted the market will rise and eight forecast little change. Last week, analysts were split over whether oil would rise or fall.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUjmcyIiprCY
Monday, November 16, 2009
Gold May Rise on Dollar, Central-Bank Speculation, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) -- Gold may advance to a record on speculation investors and central banks will buy the metal as an alternative to a weakening dollar, a survey showed. Eighteen of 19 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 95 percent, said bullion would rise next week. One forecast a lower price. The metal for delivery in December was up 1.3 percent this week at $1,109.80 an ounce at noon yesterday in New York.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUm8fp0KSTr8
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUm8fp0KSTr8
Commodity Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
After some initial choppy sideway consolidation, Crude oil's fall resumed last week and dipped to as low as 75.57, just inch above 38.2% retracement of 65.05 to 82 at 75.53. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 71.52. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 80.51 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, we'd continue to slightly favor the bearish case as long as 80.51 resistance holds. That is, a medium term top is formed at 82.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD as whole rise from 33.2 has completed. Break of trend line support (now at 69.39) will add more credence to this case and bring deeper fall to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. However, break of 80.51 will indicate that price actions from 82.0 are merely consolidations in the medium term rise only. FUrther break of 82.0 will bring medium term rise resumption. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.
.In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's uptrend was still in progress and reached new record high of 1123.4 last week before retreating mildly. Upside momentum is clearly diminishing with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. But Friday's strong rebound argues that 1123.4 might not be the top yet. INitial bias is neutral this week. Above 1123.4 will bring rise resumption to next fibonacci target of 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2. On the downside, however, below 1098.5 support will confirm that a short term top is at least formed and deeper fall should be seen to lower channel support (now at 1053) first.
In the bigger picture, the long term up trend in Gold is still in progress. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, break of 1072 resistance turned support will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring consolidation. But we'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 key support holds.
In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. However, break of 931.3 support will indicate that medium term rise from 681 has possibly completed. This will also open up the case that long term consolidation from 1033.9 is not completed yet and has just started the third falling leg.
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver continued to engage in choppy sideway trading last week but the development so far is slightly favoring the case that rise from 16.12 has completed at 17.78 already. Initial bias should be mildly on the downside this week and break of 17.16 support again will bring deeper fall to retest 16.12 low first. On the upside, however, break of 17.78 will indicate that rise from 16.12 is still in progress and has resumed for a test on 18.175 high.
In the bigger picture, as long as 17.78 resistance holds, we'd slightly favor the case that silver's rise from 12.435 has completed at 18.175 already. Also, silver could be forming a head and shoulder top reversal pattern for the moment. Break of 16.12 support will confirm this bearish case and target lower trend line support at (now at 13.5) first. On the upside, however, break of 17.78 will dampen this bearish view and in turn suggest that medium term rally is still in progress. Further break of 18.175 will target 19.55/21.55 resistance zone. But after all, rise from 8.4 is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08/. Hence, upside is expected to be limited inside this 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure yet and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
After some initial choppy sideway consolidation, Crude oil's fall resumed last week and dipped to as low as 75.57, just inch above 38.2% retracement of 65.05 to 82 at 75.53. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 71.52. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 80.51 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, we'd continue to slightly favor the bearish case as long as 80.51 resistance holds. That is, a medium term top is formed at 82.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD as whole rise from 33.2 has completed. Break of trend line support (now at 69.39) will add more credence to this case and bring deeper fall to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. However, break of 80.51 will indicate that price actions from 82.0 are merely consolidations in the medium term rise only. FUrther break of 82.0 will bring medium term rise resumption. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.
.In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's uptrend was still in progress and reached new record high of 1123.4 last week before retreating mildly. Upside momentum is clearly diminishing with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. But Friday's strong rebound argues that 1123.4 might not be the top yet. INitial bias is neutral this week. Above 1123.4 will bring rise resumption to next fibonacci target of 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2. On the downside, however, below 1098.5 support will confirm that a short term top is at least formed and deeper fall should be seen to lower channel support (now at 1053) first.
In the bigger picture, the long term up trend in Gold is still in progress. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, break of 1072 resistance turned support will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring consolidation. But we'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 key support holds.
In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. However, break of 931.3 support will indicate that medium term rise from 681 has possibly completed. This will also open up the case that long term consolidation from 1033.9 is not completed yet and has just started the third falling leg.
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver continued to engage in choppy sideway trading last week but the development so far is slightly favoring the case that rise from 16.12 has completed at 17.78 already. Initial bias should be mildly on the downside this week and break of 17.16 support again will bring deeper fall to retest 16.12 low first. On the upside, however, break of 17.78 will indicate that rise from 16.12 is still in progress and has resumed for a test on 18.175 high.
In the bigger picture, as long as 17.78 resistance holds, we'd slightly favor the case that silver's rise from 12.435 has completed at 18.175 already. Also, silver could be forming a head and shoulder top reversal pattern for the moment. Break of 16.12 support will confirm this bearish case and target lower trend line support at (now at 13.5) first. On the upside, however, break of 17.78 will dampen this bearish view and in turn suggest that medium term rally is still in progress. Further break of 18.175 will target 19.55/21.55 resistance zone. But after all, rise from 8.4 is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08/. Hence, upside is expected to be limited inside this 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall.
In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure yet and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.
Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (16 - 20 November 2009)
Date +11 jam WIB Currency Actual Forecast Previous
Sun
Nov 15 4:45pm NZD PPI Input q/q -1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4:45pm NZD PPI Output q/q -1.4% 0.3% -0.7%
6:50pm JPY Prelim GDP q/q 1.2% 0.7% 0.7%
6:50pm JPY Prelim GDP Price Index y/y 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
7:01pm GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -1.6% 2.8%
7:30pm JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
9:18pm CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y -12.6% -14.2%
Mon
Nov 16 3:15am
GBP MPC Member Tucker Speaks
3:50am EUR Buba President Weber Speaks
5:00am EUR CPI y/y -0.1% -0.1%
5:00am EUR Core CPI y/y 1.2% 1.2%
8:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 1.0% -2.1%
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.5%
8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 1.0% -1.5%
8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 29.9 34.6
10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m -0.7% -1.5%
12:15pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
1:00pm GBP MPC Member Sentance Speaks
6:15pm USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks
6:50pm JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.1% 0.3%
7:30pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tue
Nov 17 3:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y 1.1% -1.0%
4:30am GBP CPI y/y 1.4% 1.1%
4:30am GBP RPI y/y -0.9% -1.4%
4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y 1.7% 1.7%
5:00am EUR Trade Balance -0.9B 1.0B
Tentative GBP BOE Inflation Letter
5:30am USD FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
8:30am USD PPI m/m 0.6% -0.6%
8:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.1% -0.1%
9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.3B 28.6B
9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 70.9% 70.5%
9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.4% 0.7%
10:15am USD FOMC Member Lacker Speaks
1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 19 18
5:05pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
7:00pm AUD MI Leading Index m/m 1.1%
7:30pm AUD Wage Price Index q/q 0.7% 0.8%
Wed
Nov 18 3:40am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
4:00am EUR Current Account 0.6B -1.3B
4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 0-0-9 0-0-9
6:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -47 -51
7:00am CAD Core CPI m/m 0.0% 0.3%
7:00am CAD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
8:30am USD Building Permits 0.59M 0.57M
8:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
8:30am USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
8:30am USD Housing Starts 0.61M 0.59M
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.8M
7:30pm AUD RBA Monthly Bulletin
8:00pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
11:30pm JPY All Industries Activity m/m -0.1% 0.9%
Thu
Nov 19 2:15am CHF Trade Balance 2.15B 1.91B
4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.97B -1.35B
4:20am GBP MPC Member Fisher Speaks
4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.0%
4:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 6.7B 14.8B
4:30am GBP Prelim M4 Money Supply m/m 1.2% 0.8%
8:30am CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 6.63B 5.08B
8:30am CAD Leading Index m/m 0.8% 1.1%
8:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m -0.3% -1.4%
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 503K 502K
10:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 12.5 11.5
10:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.5% 1.0%
10:30am CAD BOC Review
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 25B
11:00am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
6:05pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
Tentative GBP BOE Financial Stability Report
9:00pm NZD Credit Card Spending y/y -2.3%
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate 0.10% 0.10%
Fri
Nov 20 Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
2:00am EUR German PPI m/m 0.1% -0.5%
3:00am EUR Buba President Weber Speaks
4:15am CHF SNB Chairman Roth Speaks
5:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
www.forexfactory.com
Sun
Nov 15 4:45pm NZD PPI Input q/q -1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4:45pm NZD PPI Output q/q -1.4% 0.3% -0.7%
6:50pm JPY Prelim GDP q/q 1.2% 0.7% 0.7%
6:50pm JPY Prelim GDP Price Index y/y 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
7:01pm GBP Rightmove HPI m/m -1.6% 2.8%
7:30pm JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
9:18pm CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y -12.6% -14.2%
Mon
Nov 16 3:15am
GBP MPC Member Tucker Speaks
3:50am EUR Buba President Weber Speaks
5:00am EUR CPI y/y -0.1% -0.1%
5:00am EUR Core CPI y/y 1.2% 1.2%
8:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m 1.0% -2.1%
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.5%
8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 1.0% -1.5%
8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 29.9 34.6
10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m -0.7% -1.5%
12:15pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
1:00pm GBP MPC Member Sentance Speaks
6:15pm USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks
6:50pm JPY Tertiary Industry Activity m/m 0.1% 0.3%
7:30pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tue
Nov 17 3:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y 1.1% -1.0%
4:30am GBP CPI y/y 1.4% 1.1%
4:30am GBP RPI y/y -0.9% -1.4%
4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y 1.7% 1.7%
5:00am EUR Trade Balance -0.9B 1.0B
Tentative GBP BOE Inflation Letter
5:30am USD FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
8:30am USD PPI m/m 0.6% -0.6%
8:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.1% -0.1%
9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.3B 28.6B
9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 70.9% 70.5%
9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m 0.4% 0.7%
10:15am USD FOMC Member Lacker Speaks
1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 19 18
5:05pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
7:00pm AUD MI Leading Index m/m 1.1%
7:30pm AUD Wage Price Index q/q 0.7% 0.8%
Wed
Nov 18 3:40am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
4:00am EUR Current Account 0.6B -1.3B
4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 0-0-9 0-0-9
6:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -47 -51
7:00am CAD Core CPI m/m 0.0% 0.3%
7:00am CAD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
8:30am USD Building Permits 0.59M 0.57M
8:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
8:30am USD CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
8:30am USD Housing Starts 0.61M 0.59M
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.8M
7:30pm AUD RBA Monthly Bulletin
8:00pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
11:30pm JPY All Industries Activity m/m -0.1% 0.9%
Thu
Nov 19 2:15am CHF Trade Balance 2.15B 1.91B
4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance -0.97B -1.35B
4:20am GBP MPC Member Fisher Speaks
4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.0%
4:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 6.7B 14.8B
4:30am GBP Prelim M4 Money Supply m/m 1.2% 0.8%
8:30am CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 6.63B 5.08B
8:30am CAD Leading Index m/m 0.8% 1.1%
8:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m -0.3% -1.4%
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 503K 502K
10:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 12.5 11.5
10:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.5% 1.0%
10:30am CAD BOC Review
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 25B
11:00am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
6:05pm CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
Tentative GBP BOE Financial Stability Report
9:00pm NZD Credit Card Spending y/y -2.3%
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate 0.10% 0.10%
Fri
Nov 20 Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
2:00am EUR German PPI m/m 0.1% -0.5%
3:00am EUR Buba President Weber Speaks
4:15am CHF SNB Chairman Roth Speaks
5:30am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
www.forexfactory.com
Week Ahead: Investors Go for Quality, Assess Recovery
By: Patti Domm
Executive Editor
The stock market could trend higher as investors rotate into higher quality names. The market will be challenged by plenty of economic news in the coming week, as investors look for signs the recovery is taking hold. The most important headlines come Monday, first when October retail sales are released, then later in the day when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to the Economic Club of New York. The dollar is also a key, and traders are watching the outcome of President Obama's trip to Asia and particularly his meetings in China early in the week.
A mall full of chain stores report third quarter earnings, so the approaching holiday shopping season will be an important focus. The S&P retail sector was one of the best performers in the past week, with the group gaining 3.3 percent. The Dow rose 2.5 percent to 10,270 for the week, giving it a 5.7 percent gain in the past two weeks. The S&P 500 jumped 24 points, or 2.3 percent to 1093. The best performing sector was materials, up 4.2 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33921058
Executive Editor
The stock market could trend higher as investors rotate into higher quality names. The market will be challenged by plenty of economic news in the coming week, as investors look for signs the recovery is taking hold. The most important headlines come Monday, first when October retail sales are released, then later in the day when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to the Economic Club of New York. The dollar is also a key, and traders are watching the outcome of President Obama's trip to Asia and particularly his meetings in China early in the week.
A mall full of chain stores report third quarter earnings, so the approaching holiday shopping season will be an important focus. The S&P retail sector was one of the best performers in the past week, with the group gaining 3.3 percent. The Dow rose 2.5 percent to 10,270 for the week, giving it a 5.7 percent gain in the past two weeks. The S&P 500 jumped 24 points, or 2.3 percent to 1093. The best performing sector was materials, up 4.2 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33921058
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)