Daily Technical Analysis Indeks Saham Futures Asia

SSIZ9
Nikkei memberikan signal positif dari pola candle morning star (indikasi bullish reversal), meski ditutup dibawah channel support 9652. Secara keseluruhan trend bearish jangka pendek. Indikator stochastic trending down dan MACD bearish, ADX rebound, mendukung potensi penurunan. Potensi kenaikan merupakan peluang sell on rally, selama gagal ditutup dibawah 9776 (23.6% FR). Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada di wave 3/C. Resistance di 9640/9780. Support 9350/9180. Rekomendasi: Hold Buy 9500 & 9650 & 9850 target 9950 stop 9350, sell 10150 target 9850 stop 10250. buy break 10030 target 10180.
KSIZ9
Indeks menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle three white soldier (pola bullish continuation) dalam pola uptrend channel, menunjukkan double top, didukung stochastic crossing up (overbought), ADX rebound, MACD bullish, dapat mendukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut dan membatasi potensi penurunan. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks di wave iii/3 untuk target 214.90/215.80, selama bertahan diatas 207.30. Resistance 214.90/215.80. Support 212.00/209.70 Rekomendasi: Buy 209.80 target 214.00 stop 100p, sell 215.80 & 217.00 target 212.00 stop 100p, buy 207.30 target 212.00, sell break 211.80 target 209.50.
HSIX9
Indeks menunjukkan signal positif dari pola morning star (indikasi bullish reversal) meski telah breakout uptrend channel minor membatasi potensi kenaikan, kecuali jika indeks berhasil ditutup dibawah channel support di 22418. Indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD bullish & stochastic crossover down, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Indeks mendapatkan resistance 22720/22950. Support di 22200/22325. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan koreksi wave iv/5. Rekomendasi: Sell break 22.100 target 21950 stop 100p. Sell 22750 & 23050 target 22250 stop 100p. Buy 21950 & 22200 target 22850 stop 22450.
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Kalender Ekonomi & Event (23 - 27 November 2009)

Nov 22 - Nov 28
Date WIB +11 Jam Currency Forecast Previous
Sun
Nov 22 4:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m 3.8%
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
7:30pm AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 3.1%
Mon
Nov 23 3:00am
EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.5 55.6
3:00am
EUR French Flash Services PMI 57.7 57.7
3:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.7 51.0
3:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 51.2 50.7
4:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.3 50.7
4:00am EUR Flash Services PMI 52.7 52.6
8:00am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
8:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.5%
8:30am CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.8%
10:00am USD Existing Home Sales 5.71M 5.57M
6:00pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m 1.8%
Tue
Nov 24 12:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report
2:00am CHF UBS Consumption Indicator 0.63
2:00am EUR German Final GDP q/q 0.7% 0.7%
2:50am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.5% 2.3%
3:15am CHF Employment Level 3.96M 3.95M
4:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 92.6 91.9
4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 43.7K 42.1K
4:30am GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q -3.5% -10.2%
4:45am GBP Inflation Report Hearings
5:00am EUR Industrial New Orders m/m 0.7% 2.0%
8:30am USD Prelim GDP q/q 3.0% 3.5%
8:30am USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 0.8% 0.8%
9:00am EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate -11.3 -14.2
9:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y -9.1% -11.3%
10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence 47.6 47.7
10:00am USD HPI m/m 0.2% -0.3%
10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 10 7
10:35am GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
12:30pm CHF SNB Chairman Roth Speaks
2:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
5:20pm AUD RBA Deputy Gov Battellino Speaks
6:50pm JPY Trade Balance 0.31T 0.06T
6:50pm JPY CSPI y/y -2.5% -3.2%
7:30pm AUD Construction Work Done q/q 0.1% -0.1%
Wed
Nov 25 2:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 4.3 4.0
25th-30th GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.4% 0.4%
4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.1% -0.1%
4:30am GBP Revised GDP q/q -0.3% -0.4%
4:30am GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.0% -0.1%
8:30am CAD Corporate Profits q/q -6.4%
8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.8% 1.2%
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 500K 505K
8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%
8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.5% 1.4%
8:30am USD Personal Spending m/m 0.6% -0.5%
8:30am USD Personal Income m/m 0.2% 0.0%
9:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 67.2 66.0
9:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8%
10:00am USD New Home Sales 408K 402K
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.9M
12:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 20B
6:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
7:30pm AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q 1.1% 3.3%
9:00pm NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 48.2
Thu
Nov 26 All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.0% 0.1%
4:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 0.7% 1.8%
4:00am EUR Private Loans y/y -0.4% -0.3%
5:15am EUR Buba President Weber Speaks
6:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 11 8
All Day USD Thanksgiving Holiday
12:00pm EUR Buba President Weber Speaks
4:45pm NZD Trade Balance -469M -424M
6:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y 0.6% 1.0%
6:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y -2.0% -2.2%
6:30pm JPY National Core CPI y/y -2.2% -2.3%
6:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 5.4% 5.3%
6:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y -1.5% -1.3%
9:00pm NZD Inflation Expectations q/q 2.3%
Fri
Nov 27 2:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m 0.4% -0.9%
5:00am EUR Consumer Confidence -18 -18
5:30am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 1.85 1.45
8:30am CAD Current Account -10.7B -11.2B
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Doug Hirschhorn: Greed...or Fear

Market coach Doug Hirschhorn, PhD, discusses what it is that really motivates traders on Wall Street
Today I'm here to tell you the age-old belief that greed moves the markets is just plain wrong. There is only one thing that moves the market: fear. Whether it’s a fear of losing money or a fear of missing out on making money, the simple fact is that fear is the main driver for traders.

Here are 3 ways to move beyond your fear:
* Get over yourself As a trader, you need to accept the reality that you are always missing out on some trade somewhere. The markets were here long before you began trading and will be here long after you’ve retired to your quiet little island getaway.
* Know your strengths Instead of chasing current hot markets (commodities) or styles (technicals) know what your competitive advantage is and stick to it.
* Know your job Contrary to popular opinion, a trader's job is not to make money. That’s the market’s job.

Rather, your job is to do the following:
* Figure out your competitive advantage.
* Execute that advantage when it appears.
* Manage risk as the market moves.

Do your job and you won’t have to worry about chasing the market because you're afraid to miss out.Think better, invest smarter.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34067955

Thanksgiving Week Stuffed With Economic News

By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive Editor

Markets will take in a heavy helping of economic reports in the shortened Thanksgiving holiday week, but the main course remains the dollar. In the past week, the dollar gained some traction as stocks were mixed and Treasurys saw a rush of buyers. Commodities finished the week mostly higher. Economic headlines in the week ahead include important real estate data, durable goods, revisions to third quarter GDP and weekly jobless claims. There are also $119 billion in Treasury notes and billions more in bills up for auction in the first three days of the week. Markets are closed Thanksgiving and Friday is a shortened trading day.

In the past week, traders say comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Monday reaffirmed the view that the Fed sees a slow economic recovery and that it has no plans any time soon to reverse its current policies. That supports the view that risk assets, like stocks and commodities, can continue higher and the dollar should stay weak. Bernanke though, in an unusual move, also said the Fed is monitoring the dollar closely, and the greenback has showed signs of strengthening since then.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34068074

Commodity Weekly Technical Outlook

ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Initial bias in crude oil remains on the downside this week for a test on 75.57 support first. Break there will confirm that whole choppy fall from 82.00 has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 65.05 to 82 at 71.52 next. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, short term outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 80.51 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, we'd continue to slightly favor the bearish case as long as 80.51 resistance holds. That is, a medium term top is formed at 82.0 on bearish divergence conditions in daily MACD as whole rise from 33.2 has completed. Break of trend line support (now at 70.14) will add more credence to this case and bring deeper fall to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. However, break of 80.51 will indicate that price actions from 82.0 are merely consolidations in the medium term rise only. Further break of 82.0 will bring medium term rise resumption. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal even in case of another rise.

.In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.

Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's uptrend continued last week and made another record high of 1153.4 then turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations cannot be ruled out. But still, short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1125.8 support holds and further rise is in favor. Above 1153.4 will target 161.8% projection of 985.5 to 1072 from 1026.9 at 1166.9 next. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Break of 1153.4 will indicate that a short term top is at least formed and should bring deeper decline. But even in such case, downside should be contained above 1072 resistance turned support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, rise from 681 would likely develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave. 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 is already met and next target will be 100% projection at 1258. On the downside, however, break of 1072 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 931.3 has completed and some medium term lengthier consolidations should be seen before the long term up trend resumes.

In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.

Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's rally extended to as high as 18.85 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen below 18.85 first. But after all, downside is expected to be contained well above 17.025 support and bring rally resumption. Above 18.85 will confirm that medium term rise has resumed and should target 19.55/21.55 resistance zone next.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 8.4 is still in progress and should now be targeting 19.55/21.55 resistance zone. But after all, rise from 8.4 is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Hence, upside is expected to be limited inside this 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall. On the downside, break of 16.12 will now be an important signal that silver has topped out in medium term already and will turn outlook bearish.

In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure yet and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.