Daily Technical Analysis Stock Index Asia

SSIZ9
Nikkei memberikan signal positif dari pola candle long candle (indikasi bullish continuation), dan ditutup diatas 10.120 (76.4% FR), mendukung trend bullish jangka pendek, meredam tekanan penurunan. Indikator stochastic crossing up dan MACD bullish, ADX rebound (indikasi kuatnya rebound), dukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Potensi kenaikan saat ini memberikan peluang untuk buy on weakness, selama masih ditutup diatas 9931 (61.8 FR). Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada di wave 5/1. Resistance di 10250/10.400. Support 9930/9800. Rekomendasi: Buy 9980 & buy 10120 target 10250 stop 9.470. Sell 10.250 & 10400 target 9900 stop 100p, sell break 9850 target 9500 stop 100p. (-15pp)
KSIZ9
Indeks menunjukkan signal positif dari candle long bullish (indikasi bullish continuation) untuk ketiga kalinya dalam pola down channel, meski telah ditutup diatas 212.80 (50.0% FR & middle line channel), didukung stochastic golden cross, ADX rebound, MACD di teritorial bullish, dapat mendukung potensi kenaikan lebh lanjut dan membatasi potensi penurunan. Hitungan EW menunjukkan wave impulse iii/3 untuk target 215.80/217.05, selama bertahan diatas 209.80. Resistance 215.80/217.00. Support 212.80/209.70 Rekomendasi: Buy 209.80 target 213.50 stop 100p, sell 217.00 & 219.50 target 210.00 stop 100p, buy break 215.50 target 219.50, sell 209.00 target 206.00 stop 100p. (-100p)
HSZ9
Indeks menunjukkan signal netral dari pola long legged doji (indikasi konsolidasi bullish) meski masih berada di bawah 22.542 (upper channel) dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas, meski berbalik menjadi trend bearish bullish. Indikator ADX rebound, MACD bullish & stochastic crossing up, dukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Support 22275/22000. Resistance 22665/22840. Hitungan EW indeks menunjukkan koreksi wave 5/B. Rekomendasi: Buy 22.200 target 22640 stop 100p. buy break 22.660 target 22.850 target 22250 stop 100p. Buy 22000 target 22450 stop 100p. Sell break 21.950 target 21.500, Sell 22980 target 22300 (+300p-100p)
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Kalender Ekonomi & Event 07 - 11 Desember 2009

Dec 6 - Dec 11
Date WIB + 11 jam Currency Forecast Previous
Sun
Dec 6 5:30pm AUD AIG Construction Index 50.9
7:30pm AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m -1.7%
Mon
Dec 7 3:00am
EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
3:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y 1.2% -1.6%
4:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -4.3 -7.0
6:00am EUR German Factory Orders m/m 0.6% 0.9%
8:00am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
8:30am CAD Building Permits m/m 1.1% 1.6%
12:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
3:00pm USD Consumer Credit m/m -9.6B -14.8B
4:45pm NZD Manufacturing Sales q/q -4.8%
5:45pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
6:50pm JPY Bank Lending y/y 1.5%
6:50pm JPY Current Account 1.59T 1.34T
6:50pm JPY M2 Money Stock y/y 3.5% 3.3%
7:01pm GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 3.8%
7:30pm AUD Current Account -16.7B -13.3B
7:30pm AUD NAB Business Confidence 16
Tue
Dec 8 12:00am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 40.3 40.9
12:00am JPY Leading Indicators 88.7% 86.4%
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
2:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance -125.8B
3:15am AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
8th-10th GBP Halifax HPI m/m 0.8% 1.2%
4:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.5% 1.7%
4:30am GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.5% 1.6%
6:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 1.1% 2.7%
6:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -42 -45
8:15am CAD Housing Starts 158K 157K
9:00am CAD BOC Rate Statement
9:00am CAD Overnight Rate 0.25% 0.25%
Tentative GBP NIESR GDP Estimate -0.4%
10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 49.8 47.9
N/A President Obama Speech
6:30pm AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -2.5%
6:50pm JPY Final GDP q/q 0.8% 1.2%
6:50pm JPY Final GDP Price Index y/y 0.2% 0.2%
7:01pm GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence 71 72
Tentative GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y 0.0%
7:30pm AUD Home Loans m/m -1.8% 5.1%
7:30pm AUD Trade Balance -1.78B -1.85B
b 1:00am JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y -42.5%

1:45am CHF Unemployment Rate 4.2% 4.1%
2:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m -0.2% -0.2%
2:00am EUR German Trade Balance 10.3B 9.9B
2:45am EUR French Trade Balance -2.3B -1.8B
4:30am GBP Trade Balance -6.9B -7.2B
6:00am EUR Buba President Weber Speaks
7:30am GBP Annual Pre-Budget Release
8:40am USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m -0.6% -0.9%
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.1M
3:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 2.50% 2.50%
3:00pm NZD RBNZ Press Conference
3:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
3:00pm NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
4:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index 50.6
4:45pm NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q -2.3% -9.0%
6:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -4.4% 10.5%
6:50pm JPY CGPI y/y -5.1% -6.7%
7:00pm AUD MI Inflation Expectations 3.2%
7:30pm AUD Employment Change 5.3K 24.5K
7:30pm AUD Unemployment Rate 5.9% 5.8%
8:45pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
Thu
Dec 10 2:00am EUR German WPI m/m 0.3% -0.4%
2:45am EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q 0.0% 0.0%
2:50am EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.6% -1.5%
3:30am CHF Libor Rate 0.25% 0.25%
b
4:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 1.6% -5.3%
5:00am GBP CB Leading Index m/m 1.0%
7:00am GBP Asset Purchase Facility 200B 200B
Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement
7:00am GBP Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
8:30am CAD Trade Balance -0.6B -0.9B
8:30am USD Trade Balance -37.0B -36.5B
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 465K 457K
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage 2B
1:45pm USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -136.0B -176.4B
4:45pm NZD FPI m/m -1.5%
9:00pm CNY Industrial Production y/y 18.2% 16.1%
9:00pm CNY CPI y/y 0.5% -0.5%
9:00pm CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 33.1% 33.1%
9:00pm CNY NBS Press Conference
9:00pm CNY PPI y/y -2.3% -5.8%
9:00pm CNY Retail Sales y/y 16.6% 16.2%
11th-14th CNY New Loans 253B
11th-14th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 29.0% 29.4%
11th-12th CNY Trade Balance 24.3B 24.0B
Fri
Dec 11 12:00am JPY Household Confidence 40.6 40.5
4:30am GBP PPI Input m/m 0.6% 2.6%
4:30am GBP PPI Output m/m 0.4% 0.2%
7:15am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
8:30am CAD NHPI m/m 0.5%
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.2%
8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 1.4%
8:30am USD Import Prices m/m 1.2% 0.7%
9:55am USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 68.7 67.4
9:55am USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.7%
10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m -0.3% -0.4%
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Commodity Weekly Technical Outlook

ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N'
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold soared to new record high of 1227.5 last week but failed to sustain above 1200 level and dropped sharply to close at 1162.3. While a short term top is no doubt in place at 1227.5, it's still a bit early to call for reversal yet. We'll stay neutral for the moment and expects some sideway trading between 1130.1 and 1227.5 first. There could still be at least one more rise in gold towards medium term projection target at 1258 before turning into medium term consolidation. However, sustained break of 1130.1 will suggest that rise from 931.3 has completed and deeper correction could then be seen towards 55 days EMA (now at 1092.9).

In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is expected to develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and there is no confirmation of completion yet. Such rally is still expected to continue towards 100% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1258 next. However, decisive break of 1130.1 support will argue that rise from 931.3 has completed ahead of 1258 target and some deeper pull back could be seen to 1026.9/1072 support zone, or even further to retest 1000 psychological level, before resuming the long term up trend.

In the long term picture, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.


















Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rebound from 72.39 was limited at 79.04 and well below mentioned 80.51 resistance. Crude oil then weakened again with a break of 75.18 minor support on Friday. The development firstly indicates that recovery from 72.39 has completed and thus flip the bias back to the downside for a retest on 72.39 initially this week. Secondly, there is no indication that choppy fall from 82.0 has finished and thus more downside will remain in favor in near term. Break of 72.39 will target trend line support at 71.16 next.

In the bigger picture, question remains on whether crude oil's medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 already and the outlook is quite mixed so far. Nevertheless, now, as long as 79.04 resistance holds, fall from 82.0 will remain in favor to continue and we'd slightly prefer the bearish case that crude oil has topped out at 82.0 already. Sustained trading below the trend line support (now at 71.16) will add more credence to this case and target 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation.

On the upside, though, above 79.04 resistance will suggest that recent choppy price actions from 82.0 are merely consolidations in the medium term rise from 33.2. In such case, the rise from 33.2 might be ready to resume for another high above 82.0. However, as we expect such rise to conclude inside resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2), focus will remain on loss of momentum and reversal signal in this case.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.

Predictions 2010: Markets & Economy

Oliver Quillia for CNBC.com
Everyone else is throwing darts at the future, but can you honestly think of even a half dozen prognosticators that have been totally right in the last two years? Maybe the gloom and doom crowd were scoring big early on, but many of them missed the stock market rally.

So here goes 2010:
1. Economy.
Economists say unemployment should peak in the first part of the year, somewhere just shy of 11 percent. What I hope is that the hiring is not just from short-lived stimulus spending, and that companies actually see the benefit of adding to their payrolls as soon as Q1.

2. Trouble ahead.
We all know there are more catalysts for crisis out there, whether its commercial real estate or some country debt. I hope the Fed has it right, and it is keeping rates low to heal the system, not just firing up another recipe for future disasters.

3. Double Dip.
It's possible there could be a double dip recession, sooner or later, so let's hope
that's wrong. The frailty of the recovery depends so much on confidence. Businesses have to realize there may be opportunities now if they open their check books. They can go along way to help consumers come out of their shells......etc

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34124419

Week Ahead: Road Upward for Stocks Is Getting Rougher

CNBC.com
The road higher for stocks is likely to be a slower, more difficult climb that could get bumpy along the way. For that reason, a number of strategists have been recommending investors steer clear of lower quality stocks and focus instead on those with better balance sheets for this next leg of the trip. In the week ahead, markets will be tested by a fresh batch of economic news and will be dominated by the debate over whether the dollar's behavior signals the beginning of a turn for the greenback. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is in the spotlight Monday when he speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, and President Obama is expected to unveil a new plan to promote job creation Tuesday. Retail sales, international trade and weekly jobless claims are some of the important numbers to watch. The Treasury is auctioning $74 billion in 3-years, 10-years and 30-year bonds Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

http://mobile.cnbc.com/us_news/34282463

Rally may have legs, but beware of Scrooge
(Reuters) - If the bulls have their way, Wall Street's rally will keep going next week on signs of stability in the labor market. But concerns about penny-pinching consumers during the holiday shopping season and the specter of higher interest rates may be a hurdle to jump.The Standard & Poor's 500 is up 63.5 percent from a 12-year closing low on March 9, while expectations of a significant sell-off before year-end have waned. Any dip is likely to be met with buyers eager to get into the market.Investors are optimistic that the U.S. economy is on the path to recovery, albeit a slow one, after Friday's data showed employers cut far fewer jobs than expected in November.Even so, worries that consumers will remain frugal during the holiday shopping season are keeping a lid on investors' enthusiasm. And after Friday's data showing the labor market picture improved in November, there's speculation that the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates sooner than previously expected.

http://mobile.reuters.com/mobile/m/FullArticle/p.rdt/CBUS/nbusinessNews_uUSTRE5B401N20091205