Daily Technical Analysis Stock Index Futures Asia

SSIH0
Nikkei memberikan signal positif dari pola piercing bullish (indikasi bullish reversal) dan bertahan di atas 10130 (76.4% FR), membatasi momentum penurunan jangka pendek. Sementara indikator stochastic overbought dan MACD bullish, ADX terkoreksi (indikasi momentum penurunan lemah), dukung potensi sell on rally diatas 10.260. Potensi kenaikan memberikan peluang untuk sell on rallies, selama masih ditutup dibawah 10.260 (100.0 FR). Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada di wave iv/3. Resistance di 10200/10.260. Support 10015/9930. Rekomendasi: Buy 9900 target 10250 stop 60p. Sell break 10000 & 9850 target 9650 stop 100p, hold Sell 10250 & 10400 target 9950 stop 100p.
KSIH0
Indeks menunjukkan signal positif dari candle long doji star (indikasi momentum penurunan terbatas dan bullish reversal yang moderat) dan ditutup di bawah 218.50, didukung stochastic crossing down, ADX meningkat, MACD bullish, dapat membatasi potensi penurunan dan picu aksi technical rebound. Hitungan EW menunjukkan wave impulse v/3 untuk target 218.90, selama bertahan diatas 209.80. Resistance 215.85/217.80. Support 213.20/211.50 Rekomendasi: Buy 213.00 target 217.50 stop 100p, sell 217.80 & 218.90 target 213.00 stop 60p, sell 215.80 target 212.90, buy 209.50 target 217.00 stop 60p, sell break 212.50 target 209.80. (+50p)
HSIZ9
Indeks menunjukkan signal positif dari pola doji star (indikasi bearish continuationl) dan masih berada di bawah 21.880 (50.0 FR) dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas, cenderung potensi sell on rally. Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD bearish & stochastic oversold, dukung potensi sell on rally. Support 21050/20860. Resistance 21500/21850. Hitungan EW indeks menunjukkan koreksi wave 5/C. Rekomendasi: Sell 21650 target 21150 stop 60p. buy break 21700 target 22200 stop 60p. Sell 22000 target 21500 stop 100p. Buy break 21350 target 22000, sell break 21000 target 20850 stop 60p, Sell break 20.800 target 20500 stop 60p, buy 21.000 target 21500 stop 60p
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GLOBAL MARKETS WEEKAHEAD-Debt fears to sour holiday mood

By: AFX
By Natsuko Waki LONDON, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Persisting fears about sovereign and related debt from Greece to Dubai will keep investors occupied into 2010 after they enjoyed one of the best years for world stocks in the past two decades. Greek assets have taken a hammering after two credit ratings agencies downgraded the euro zone member this month on concerns about its fiscal health, blowing out spreads between Greek bonds and safer German alternatives to their widest since early April. Standard & Poor's also cut Mexico's credit ratings this week by one notch on fiscal concerns, while worries about Britain's fiscal and economic health are nagging investors after sterling hit two-month lows against the dollar this week. Such fiscal fears could easily chill sentiment for world stocks as the benchmark MSCI world equity index wraps up one of the best annual performances in its 20-year history -- up nearly 29 percent. In December however the index has barely made gains.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34477034/site/14081545/for/cnbc/

US Dollar Likely to Continue Upward Swing Next Week

By: Reuters
The dollar is likely to extend gains in the upcoming week, continuing to draw support from growing signs of a stable U.S. recovery as well as a Federal Reserve plan to wind down most of its emergency lending early next year. Both factors have pushed the market's U.S. interest rate expectations forward despite pronouncements from the Fed that it will keep interest rates low for an extended period. The rate futures market Friday has priced in at least one quarter-point rate increase by the beginning of the second half next year. A few months ago, futures traders had factored in Fed tightening late in 2010.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34480636

Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (21 - 25 Desember 2009)

Dec 20 - Dec 26
Date WIB +1 Jam Currency Forecast Previous
Sun
Dec 20 4:45pm
NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -0.7%
6:50pm JPY Trade Balance 0.27T 0.42T
7:30pm AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 3.7%
9:00pm NZD Credit Card Spending y/y -0.4%
11:30pm JPY All Industries Activity m/m 1.1% -0.6%
Mon
Dec 21 12:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report
5:00am CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
8:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 1.1%
8:30am CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.9% 1.0%
4:45pm NZD Current Account -2.01B 0.12B
6:00pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.3%
Tue
Dec 22 2:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 3.6 3.7
2:00am JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
All Day ALL OPEC Meetings
2:15am CHF Trade Balance 2.79B 2.44B

4:30am GBP Current Account -8.1B -11.4B
4:30am GBP Final GDP q/q -0.1% -0.3%
8:30am USD Final GDP q/q 2.8% 2.8%
8:30am USD Final GDP Price Index q/q 0.5% 0.5%
9:00am EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate -4.3 -8.8
10:00am USD Existing Home Sales 6.31M 6.10M
10:00am USD HPI m/m 0.2% 0.0%
10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 4 1
4:45pm NZD GDP q/q 0.4% 0.1%
All Day JPY Bank Holiday
Wed
Dec 23 2:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m 0.2% 0.5%
2:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.5% 1.1%
4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.1%
4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 0-0-9 0-0-9
4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 43.3K 42.2K
4:30am GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.3% -0.1%
8:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.3% 0.4%
8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.2%
8:30am USD Personal Spending m/m 0.6% 0.7%
8:30am USD Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.2%
9:55am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 74.3 73.4
9:55am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.1%
10:00am USD New Home Sales 442K 430K
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.7M
6:50pm JPY BSI Manufacturing Index 11.2 15.5
6:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Thu
Dec 24 12:15am JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.9% -1.3%
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 471K 480K
8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.4% -0.6%
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage -207B
All Day NZD Bank Holiday
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
6:30pm JPY Household Spending y/y 0.5% 1.6%
6:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y -1.8% -1.9%
6:30pm JPY National Core CPI y/y -1.7% -2.2%
6:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 5.2% 5.1%
6:50pm JPY CSPI y/y -1.9% -2.2%
Fri
Dec 25 12:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y -22.3% -27.1%
All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday

Commodity Weekly Technical Outlook

ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's recovery was limited at 1142.9 after hitting 4 hours 55 EMA and fall from 1227.5 resumed and reached as low as 1097.4. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1079.4 next. On the upside, above 1142.9 resistance will argue that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger recovery. But after all, upside should be limited below 1227.5 and bring another fall to continue the correction. In the bigger picture, rise from 681 is expected to develop into a set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is treated as the third wave and has possibly completed at 1227.5 after missing 100% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1258. Deeper pull back could now be seen to 1026.9/1072 support zone, or even further to retest 1000 psychological level. But downside should be contained well above 931.3 support and bring up trend resumption to another high above 1227.5.
In the long term picture, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.

Comex Silver (SI)
Silver's recovery was limited at 17.81 last week after failing to sustain above 4 hours 55 EMA and weakens again. Initial bias is cautiously on the downside this week for 16.90 low first. Break there will confirm resumption of whole fall from 19.50 and should target 16.12 key support next. On the upside, above 17.81 will indicate that consolidations from 16.90 is still progress. But after all, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 19.50 to 16.90 at 18.50 and bring fall resumption.In the bigger picture, rise from 12.435 should have completed at 19.50 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after just missing 19.55/21.55 resistance zone. Break of 16.12 support will confirm this case and should target lower trend line support at 13.88 level. This will also be the another signal that whole medium term rise from 8.4 has finished too. Sustained break of the lower trend line support will confirm this medium term bearish case and bring further fall towards 8.4 low. Also, note that whole medium term rise from 8.4 is is treated as part of the long term, wide range, consolidation pattern that started at 21.44 back in Mar 08. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited inside this 19.55/21.44 resistance zone and bring another medium term fall.In the longer term picture, the up trend from 01 low of 4.01 topped out at 21.44 and subsequent price actions are treated as correction/consolidation to this up trend. Fall from 21.44 completed after drawing support form 8.5 key level. However, subsequent rally from 8.4 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure and hence, we'd prefer the case that it's just the second wave of the wide range consolidation pattern. Another medium term fall should still be seen for retesting 8.5 before completing the consolidation. Nevertheless, strong support is still expected at 5.45/8.5 support zone to conclude the consolidation.

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's recovery from 68.58 extend further to as high as 74.69 last week and is probably still in progress. Further rise could still be seen initially this week. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement at 76.87 and bring resumption of the fall from 82.0. On the downside, below 71.21 will indicate that recovery from 68.58 has completed and will flip intraday bias for this support first. Break will target 65.05 key support next. However, decisive break of 76.87 fibo resistance will argue that fall from 82.0 has completed and will turn focus back to this resistance.In the bigger picture, at this point, crude oil is still limited by 55 days EMA (now at 74.52) and hence, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Another fall is expected after finishing the current recovery from 68.58 and a break there will target 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60). Break there will confirm this bearish case and indicate that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. However, sustained trading above mentioned 76.87 will dampen this bearish view and argue that another high above 82.0 might be seen before crude oil tops in 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone. In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.