Track Record Saham IHSG PT Universal Broker Indonesia Securities (TF): Periode 17 Juni 2009 - 12 Januari 2010 = 28 Pekan
Track Record (05 - 12 Januari 2010):
Average +114,28% (27 Pekan) + 5,813% (total +139,53% dari 24 Saham Pilihan Pekan ini: 05 - 12 Jan 10) = Total 120,093% (Profit: 27 Pekan / Loss: 1 Pekan; Profit dalam 10 Pekan terakhir; sebelumnya 10 pekan lalu 17 pekan berturut-turut Positive Return) = Average 4.289%/Week. Outperform IHSG dalam 28 pekan = +32,464% (IHSG Range 909 poin: 1,750-2,659); Average 1.159%/week.
BUMI +17,2%/BBCA +1,9%/BMRI -1,5%/BBRI 0%/SGRO 7,0%/ ASII -0,14%/AALI 5,0%/INKP +19,8%/JSMR +1,6%/INDF +3,33%/HMSP 13,3%/HEXA +19,2%/TLKM -1,04%/CSAP -9.5%/TINS +6,8%/ANTM +2,15%/INCO +1,9%/UNTR +12,5%/PTBA 1,1%/ADRO +12,5%/DOID -2,3%/CTRA +24,5%/BSDE -1,1%/TBLA 5,33%
Track Record (17 Juni - 30 Desember 2009)
Average +110.88% (25 Pekan) + 3.40% (total +57.86% dari 17 Saham Pilihan Pekan ini: 28 Des - 30 Des 09) = Total 114.28% (Profit: 26 Pekan / Loss: 1 Pekan; Profit dalam 7 Pekan terakhir; sebelumnya 7 pekan lalu 17 pekan berturut-turut Positive Return) = Average 4.235%/Week. Outperform IHSG dalam 27 pekan = +30.46% (IHSG Range 1,750-2,542); Average 1.12%/week.
Track Record ( 28 Des - 30 Des 09) = +3,40%
BUMI +8,6%/PTBA +2,36%/ DOID +13,5%/ASII +1,7%/BRPT +3,8%/SGRO +2,8%
/HEXA +5,0%/ADRO 0% /ITMG +0,6%/BBRI 0%/BMRI +2.3%/INCO +2.0%/ TINS
+5,8%/ ANTM +1,1%/TLKM 0%/ELTY -1,0%/DEWA +9.3%
Track Record (16 Des - 23 Des 09)
BMRI +1.1%/ASII +0.58%/UNVR +0.44%/MNCN -4.6%/BSDE 0%/ANTM -1.1%/INDF +3.78%/GGRM +1.5%/UNTR +0.9%/HEXA -2.4%/PGAS -1.3%/SMGR +4.7%/INTP +3.9%/SMCB -1.3%/LSIP -4.1%/INKP +1.1%/BBTN +3.7%/BUMI 0%/TLKM -2.2%/ADRO -1.7%/ASRI -4.5%/SGRO 0%/BKDP +8.1%/INDY +3.7%/INCO +1.5%/DOID 1.3%/GDST -9.9%.
Track Record (09 Des - 14 Des 09)
BUMI 2.450 +3.9%/BMRI +2.7%/BBRI +1.9%/ASII +2.8%/UNVR +1.35%/TLKM +4.8%/BSDE +10%/JSMR +1.06%/ANTM +2.2%/INDF 0%/GGRM +15.5%/UNTR +10.9%/HEXA +6.8%/INCO 0%/BKSL 0%/PGAS +4.5% /SMGR 3.44%/INTP 4.09%
Track Record (25 Nov - 03 Des 09)
BUMI 2.575 (0%)/PTBA 15.750 (+17.7%)/ADRO 1.710 (+3.5%)/BMRI 4.600 (+1.08%)/ BBRI 7.600 (+5.9%)/ BKSL 101 (-4.9%)/RAJA 215 (-2.3%)/CTRA 550 (-1.8%)/BSDE 820 (+3.65%)/BTEL 155 (+1.29%)/INDF 3.175 (0%)/ BNBR 100 (+1.0%)/ KLBF 1.270 (+0.78%)/BRPT 1.330 (+2.2%)/ELTY 23 0 (+4.3%).
Track Record (19 - 23 November 2009)
BUMI +11.7%/DEWA +3.7%/PGAS +1.9%/DOID -0.6%/ASII +0.9%/MEDC 3.7%/ANTM 4.2%/SMGR 0%/HEXA -0.84%/TRUB +4.8%/BKSL +10.1%/PTBA 6.7%/ENRG +5.2%/BMRI +1.06%/TLKM 1.1%
Track Record Periode 09 Nov - 17 Nov: (24 Posisi)
PTBA 5.4%/DOID 10.0%/BBRI 3.3%/BBCA 0.5%/BMRI 0%/ MEDC 2.8%/PGAS 3.4%/JSMR 2.7%/SMRA 0%/CTRS -5.8%/SGRO 3.0%/ INDF 3.2%/KLBF 2.2%/GGRM 1.7%/SMCB 4.9%/SMGR 0%/ANTM 11.2%/MYOR 14.2%/UNVR 7.8%/ITMG 17.9%/BUMI 12.6%/ENRG 1.7%/ TRUB 9.7%/ASII 3.9%/FREN 3.7%
Track Record Periode 26 Okt - 06 Nov: (29 Posisi):
BBRI +2.7/BMRI 0%/PTBA -0.67%/ADRO 0%/PGAS +0.68%/SDRA 0%/AKRA +6.8%/BSDE +12.6%/SMGR 11.1%/SMRA +13.0%/BUMI +11.36%/ENRG +30%/HEXA 4.4%/MEDC 4.8%/BBCA +2.7%/INCO 0%/PGAS +2.7%/SMCB -1.2%/ASII -1.2%/INDF +2.4%/GGRM +12.2%/TRUB 0%/ANTM 3.2%/INKP -9.5%/BUMI -2.04%/SMCB 2.5%/ENRG 9.2%/ASII -0.6%/INDF 5.08%. Total Profit +122.21% untuk 29 posisi.
Track Record Periode 19 - 23 Okt:
BUMI (3.000) -9.16%, JSMR (1.860) -1.07%, INCO (4.225) +1.18%, PGAS (3.750) 0%, PTBA (14.650) +2.39%, ANTM (2.625) -0.95%, SMGR 6.950 -2.1%, UNTR (16.500) -3.03%, SMCB (1.640) -1.8%, KLBF (1.340) -2.2%/HEXA 3.075 -0.8%, SGRO (2.400) 2.08%,BMRI (4.775) -1.04%, BBRI (7.850) -3.18%, AALI (22.200) -0.45%, TLKM (8.650) +0.57%, UNVR (10.850) -3.38%, ADRO (1.510) +7.94%, BBCA (4.775) 0%, ITMG (24.450) 0% (+Dividen Rp 648).
Track Record Periode 12 - 16 Okt:
BUMI (2900) +4.3%, INDF (3100) +3.2%, JSMR (1800) +3.9%, ASII (33500)-0.6%, ANTM (2600) +1.9%, TLKM (8650) +0.6%, UNVR (11000) 0%, UNTR (15500) +7.7%, SMCB (1550) +7.1%, KLBF (1320) +2.3%, BMRI (4875) +1.03%, BBRI (8050) -0.62%, SMGR (6700) +5.2%, BSDE (640) +12.5%, PGAS (3575) +4.9%, MEDC (3175) 0%, INCO (4150) +2.4%, TINS (2200) +1.1%, SDRA (320) 1.5%.
Track Record Periode 17 Juni - 09 Okt 2009 lainnya bisa dilihat di blog (globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com).
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Update Daily Investment News
Hedge Funds Post Best Returns in Six Years, Eurekahedge Says
(Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds had their best annual performance in six years in 2009 as the global economy began recovering and investor confidence returned, according to Eurekahedge Pte. The Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index, tracking more than 2,000 funds, rose 0.9 percent in December, bringing its 12-month return to 19 percent and total assets to $1.48 trillion, the Singapore-based research firm said in a preliminary report on its Web site. The annual return was the highest since 2003, when the index rose 21 percent.Stimulus packages by governments around the globe helped stock and bond markets rebound and hedge funds make a comeback from their worst year on record in 2008, when the Eurekahedge index fell 11 percent. The MSCI World Index, which includes shares in 23 developed nations, jumped 27 percent last year, also the best performance since 2003.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aFQ0t3N.RyEY
Liquidity Bubble Possible for China Stocks, Credit Suisse Says
(Bloomberg) -- Liquidity is the key driver this year for China’s stock market, which doesn’t have much upside based on fundamentals and valuation, Credit Suisse Group AG said.“The market does not have much potential upside after the 2009 rally,” Vincent Chan and Peggy Chan, analysts at Credit Suisse, said in a research report today. “Having said that, we do not rule out the possibility of another major liquidity bubble.”Credit Suisse set its 12-month forecast for the MSCI China Index at 65, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index at 15,000, and the Shanghai A-Share Stock Price Index at 3,300, according to the report.
Corporate Bond Returns Rising Fastest Since '98: Credit Markets
(Bloomberg) -- Corporate bonds are providing the best returns in more than a decade, spurring sales by PepsiCo Inc. and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG as investors anticipate that earnings growth will make it easier for companies to meet debt payments.The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Corporate Index returned 1.02 percent since Dec. 31, the biggest gain for the start of a year since rising 1.51 percent in the same period of 1998. Financial and energy companies are the top performers, with issues by New York-based American International Group Inc. rallying 3.62 percent, and oil refiners rising 2.18 percent, the index shows.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoumU.OG55rk
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
EURUSD : EURUSD unable to break below 1.4250 levels and is currently trading at 1.4490. Bias is little mixed but bullishness would be confirmed once 1.4650 would break on the upside. (EURUSD–1.4485). Rangebound to Bullish
GBPUSD : GBP moved near 1.62 levels as expected .Buying at dips remains the strategy for now and avoid any shorts in the current scenario till we continue seeing strength in Dollar Index and Euro .Stochastic is weekly is showing buying signals.(GBPUSD 1.6080)Rangebound to Bullish.
USDJPY : The JPY is currently trading near its downward trendline resistance and strength in yen still prevails. Levels close to 93 remains strong technical resistance plus stochastic in weekly charts are also showing strength in yen. Cautious shorts can be initiated near 93 levels for the target of 90 levels with tight stoploss of 150 pips. Trend still bullish for yen below 93 levels (USDJPY- 92.24) Bullish.
AUDUSD : The AUDUSD is holding strong and buying at dips remains the overall strategy. (AUDUSD - 0.9273) Bullish
Gold : GOLD seems a good buy between $1133 levels to $1142 levels for a target of 20 dollars. Do not short the metal since it seems quite bullish. (Gold - $1153.40) Bullish
Dollar Index: Dollar The Index is in a consolidation mode and fall from 78.45 might extend further and another fall to below 77.09 cannot be ruled out. We'd continue to expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 74.19 to 78.45 at 76.82 and bring rally resumption. (DI -77.16). Neutral
Euro May Extend Gains to One-Month High: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may extend gains to a one- month high of $1.4750 after it rose above so-called resistance at $1.4485, said Andrew Chaveriat, a technical analyst in New York at BNP Paribas SA, citing trading patterns.Resistance at $1.4485 is the top of the range in which the euro traded between Dec. 22 and Jan. 8, Chaveriat said. The target of $1.4750 was calculated by adding the difference between that top and the $1.4220 bottom of the range to the $1.4485 level, according to Chaveriat.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUyzXeH1.6Ek
Oil, Platinum, Gold to Climb, Merrill’s Parrilla Says
(Bloomberg) -- Oil, platinum, copper and gold will extend their rally this year as growth in emerging markets including China and investment demand fuel gains, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch executive Diego Parrilla said. Crude oil will probably climb to $100 a barrel by the end of year and gold will gain to $1,500 an ounce in 18 months, said Singapore-based Parrilla, head of commodities for Asia Pacific, citing bank forecasts. Oil soared 78 percent last year and was at $81.83 a barrel today. Gold traded at $1,150.95 an ounce.Commodities, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 futures, jumped 50 percent last year, posting their best year since at least 1971, as governments pledged as much as $12 trillion to combat the worst recession in seven decades. Returns beat the 27 percent gain in the MSCI World Index of stocks and a 3.7 percent loss in Treasuries as investors sought to protect their wealth against currency debasement.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aEb5TpcQczQA
Won, Rupiah to Weaken From April on ‘Double-Dip’ Risk, SJS Says
(Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s won will lead declines in Asian currencies from the second quarter as the end of economic stimulus spending slows global growth, according to SJS Markets Ltd., the most-accurate forecaster of 2009’s rally in India and Taiwan’s currencies.Currency investors will become increasingly concerned about a double-dip in the U.S., European and Japanese economies, spurring a flight of capital from emerging markets, said Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at SJS in Hong Kong. Consumer spending won’t make up for the winding back of fiscal measures given the loss of jobs, and the currencies that’ll “suffer the most are the ones that are most freely floating,” such as the won and Indonesian rupiah, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aONuL..3uCr0
Dollar Weakens in Earnings Season in 2004 Replay, JPMorgan Says
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar will decline through the U.S. earnings season beginning this week as traders abandon bets that the Federal Reserve will bring forward interest-rate increases, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.“If earnings beat the consensus but U.S. front-end rates stay anchored, the dollar looks set to weaken again versus the currencies of the strongest economies, namely the commodity exporters and the emerging markets,” a team of analysts led by John Normand, head of global currency strategy in London, wrote in a research note dated Dec. 8.The dollar will erase its 4.6 percent December rally versus the euro, a “replay” of 2004, and it will be at least a year before the dollar strengthens alongside a rising stock market on the assumption that the U.S. will lead a global recovery, they wrote. Traders will pare speculation the U.S. will rebound faster than nations using the euro, while reducing bets that the Fed will increase rates before July or that Europe will produce a “major sovereign credit event” in 2010, they wrote.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0xGiJzLRq5w
Indonesia May Pay Premium on $4 Billion Debt Sale
(Bloom berg) -- Indonesia may have to reward investors with higher yields than the Philippines to borrow $4 billion as a rally in emerging-market bonds slows after the biggest gains in six years.Southeast Asia’s largest economy may sell 10-year debt at a yield of about 6 percent, or 2.2 percentage points more than similar maturity U.S. Treasures, according to Aberdeen Asset Management Plc and Vegagest SGR SpA. The Philippines, whose bonds carry the same BB- rating as Indonesia’s from Standard & Poor’s, priced 2020 securities last week to yield 5.67 percent.Indonesia plans to sell $750 million to $1 billion (69.2 billion yen - 92.3 billion yen) of so-called Samurai bonds this year, Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa said in Jakarta today. The country sold 35 billion yen of the bonds in July last year.
European Stocks Are ‘Over bought’ for First Time in Four Months
(Bloom berg) -- Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index became “over bought” for the first time in almost four months after climbing for 12 of the past 14 days, according to the so-called Relative Strength Index.The Stoxx 600’s 14-day RSI, which tracks momentum by comparing closing prices with daily trading ranges, rose to 70.58 as of 12:27 p.m. in London. When the RSI closes above 70, technical analysts say the gauge is “over bought” and likely to retreat. The measure last closed above 70 on Sept. 17, after which it fell nearly 5 percent through Oct. 2.The benchmark index for European equities has surged 65 percent from a 12-year low on March 9, boosted by record-low interest rates in the U.S. and Europe and about $12 trillion of commitments from governments worldwide to revive credit markets and stimulate growth. The Stoxx 600 climbed 0.5 percent to 260.41 today, extending a 15-month high.
Hong Kong Discount to Chinese Stocks May Disappear
(Bloom berg) -- China’s approval for short sales and stock index futures paves the way for foreign investors to bet on a convergence in valuations between Shanghai and Hong Kong.The China Securities Regulatory Commission cleared the overhaul of trading laws on Jan. 8 that will also permit buying equities with brokerage loans. The rules apply to Chinese citizens and the 94 international institutions authorized for mainland trading by the government. Allowing investors to profit from share declines will make trading more efficient in China and may eventually reduce the valuation gap with Hong Kong, where an index of mainland-based companies is priced at a 38 percent discount, according to ING Groep NV. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is valued at about 34 times earnings, second behind Taiwan’s Taiex Index as the most expensive in Asia, data compiled by Bloom berg show.
Short Sales
In a short sale, an investor borrows an asset and sells it, hoping to profit from a decline by re purchasing it later at a lower price. An investor arbitrarily China might buy shares in Hong Kong and sell short the same company trading on the mainland.The Shanghai Composite climbed 0.5 percent to 3,212.75 at the close, the most in a week. The CSI 300 Index, which tracks the 300 biggest stocks traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, added 0.1 percent, after jumping as much as 3.3 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, made of shares of mainland companies traded in Hong Kong, increased 0.6 percent.
More Hedge Funds
The relaxation may spur the creation of more hedge funds in Asia, according to Ken Heinz, the president of Hedge Fund Research Inc., based in Chicago. Hedge funds are mostly private pools of capital whose managers participate substantially in the profits from speculating on whether the price of assets rise or fall.
Federal Reserve Made Record Profit in 2009: Report
By: Reuters
The U.S. Federal Reserve made record profits in 2009 and will return $45 billion to the U.S. Treasury, after its efforts to prop up the economy created a windfall for the government, the Washington Post reported.The $45 billion reflects the highest earnings in the 96-year history of the U.S. central bank, the newspaper reported on its website late on Monday. The figure was obtained by calculations based on public documents, the Post said.
The Fed funds itself from its own operations and returns its profits to the Treasury. The largest previous refund to the Treasury was $34.6 billion in 2007, the Post said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34818508
Thai Stocks May Gain Amid ‘Positive’ Candle: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s SET Index may rally further this week after the benchmark gauge formed a “positive” candlestick chart amid higher trading volume, according to Phillip Securities (Thailand) Pcl. “The candlestick and higher trading volume indicate a clear bullish sign in the short term,” Surasak Kancharoen, a technical analyst at Phillip Securities, said in a telephone interview. The gauge may test this week a “key resistance level” of 758.55, last year’s intraday peak on Oct. 13, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aosBV.rBaKMA
You Can Make Money Before Liquidity Dries Up: Citi's Levkovich
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
The S&P 500 has started the year with a five-day winning streak and historically, there is correlation between the first five days of trading and the rest of January. What does this really mean for the market and investors? Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup, shared his insights.“If you’re up for the first five days, then 75 percent of the times you’re up for the rest of the year,” Levkovich told CNBC.“And if you’re down the first 5 days, then only 44 percent of the time are you up for the full year.”However, Levkovich cautioned investors, saying they need to be careful when looking at a single indicator as being the end-all. After all, he said, the trend did not apply to the markets in 2009.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34810629
VIX Indicates 'Wall of Worry' in Markets: Derivatives Pro
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped below 17 on Monday—the first time since May 2008. Is it a sign that stocks have topped? Dan Deming, trader at Stutland Equities, and Dan Hutchinson, head of derivatives at Meridian Equity Partners, shared their outlooks.“I’m not concerned about the VIX level,” Hutchinson told CNBC.However, Hutchinson said the VIX [VIX Loading... () ] and other metrics in the volatility market suggest that there is still a wall of worry in the markets.“As long as the market continues to rally into earnings, as a lot of people expect it to do, I don’t think the selloff in the VIX is particularly concerning right now,” he said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34805831
Bank Profits Means Stocks at 15% Discount to S&P 500
(Bloomberg) -- No U.S. industry has faster profit growth than banks and brokers, and no group is more hated by investors.Analysts say earnings at financial companies rose 120 percent in the fourth quarter, accounting for all of the income increase in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and will triple by 2011, climbing four times as fast as the market. Should the estimates prove correct, the shares are trading at a 15 percent discount to the index, data compiled by Bloomberg show.That’s not enough for money managers burned by the 84 percent drop in the stocks from February 2007 through March and more than 160 U.S. bank failures in the past two years. Financial companies are the least-favored equities, according to a Bank of America Corp. survey of investors with $617 billion in assets that showed 38 percent of 123 money managers are holding fewer shares than are in benchmark indexes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alEjwfiO7ggI
(Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds had their best annual performance in six years in 2009 as the global economy began recovering and investor confidence returned, according to Eurekahedge Pte. The Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index, tracking more than 2,000 funds, rose 0.9 percent in December, bringing its 12-month return to 19 percent and total assets to $1.48 trillion, the Singapore-based research firm said in a preliminary report on its Web site. The annual return was the highest since 2003, when the index rose 21 percent.Stimulus packages by governments around the globe helped stock and bond markets rebound and hedge funds make a comeback from their worst year on record in 2008, when the Eurekahedge index fell 11 percent. The MSCI World Index, which includes shares in 23 developed nations, jumped 27 percent last year, also the best performance since 2003.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aFQ0t3N.RyEY
Liquidity Bubble Possible for China Stocks, Credit Suisse Says
(Bloomberg) -- Liquidity is the key driver this year for China’s stock market, which doesn’t have much upside based on fundamentals and valuation, Credit Suisse Group AG said.“The market does not have much potential upside after the 2009 rally,” Vincent Chan and Peggy Chan, analysts at Credit Suisse, said in a research report today. “Having said that, we do not rule out the possibility of another major liquidity bubble.”Credit Suisse set its 12-month forecast for the MSCI China Index at 65, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index at 15,000, and the Shanghai A-Share Stock Price Index at 3,300, according to the report.
Corporate Bond Returns Rising Fastest Since '98: Credit Markets
(Bloomberg) -- Corporate bonds are providing the best returns in more than a decade, spurring sales by PepsiCo Inc. and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG as investors anticipate that earnings growth will make it easier for companies to meet debt payments.The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Corporate Index returned 1.02 percent since Dec. 31, the biggest gain for the start of a year since rising 1.51 percent in the same period of 1998. Financial and energy companies are the top performers, with issues by New York-based American International Group Inc. rallying 3.62 percent, and oil refiners rising 2.18 percent, the index shows.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoumU.OG55rk
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
EURUSD : EURUSD unable to break below 1.4250 levels and is currently trading at 1.4490. Bias is little mixed but bullishness would be confirmed once 1.4650 would break on the upside. (EURUSD–1.4485). Rangebound to Bullish
GBPUSD : GBP moved near 1.62 levels as expected .Buying at dips remains the strategy for now and avoid any shorts in the current scenario till we continue seeing strength in Dollar Index and Euro .Stochastic is weekly is showing buying signals.(GBPUSD 1.6080)Rangebound to Bullish.
USDJPY : The JPY is currently trading near its downward trendline resistance and strength in yen still prevails. Levels close to 93 remains strong technical resistance plus stochastic in weekly charts are also showing strength in yen. Cautious shorts can be initiated near 93 levels for the target of 90 levels with tight stoploss of 150 pips. Trend still bullish for yen below 93 levels (USDJPY- 92.24) Bullish.
AUDUSD : The AUDUSD is holding strong and buying at dips remains the overall strategy. (AUDUSD - 0.9273) Bullish
Gold : GOLD seems a good buy between $1133 levels to $1142 levels for a target of 20 dollars. Do not short the metal since it seems quite bullish. (Gold - $1153.40) Bullish
Dollar Index: Dollar The Index is in a consolidation mode and fall from 78.45 might extend further and another fall to below 77.09 cannot be ruled out. We'd continue to expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 74.19 to 78.45 at 76.82 and bring rally resumption. (DI -77.16). Neutral
Euro May Extend Gains to One-Month High: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may extend gains to a one- month high of $1.4750 after it rose above so-called resistance at $1.4485, said Andrew Chaveriat, a technical analyst in New York at BNP Paribas SA, citing trading patterns.Resistance at $1.4485 is the top of the range in which the euro traded between Dec. 22 and Jan. 8, Chaveriat said. The target of $1.4750 was calculated by adding the difference between that top and the $1.4220 bottom of the range to the $1.4485 level, according to Chaveriat.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUyzXeH1.6Ek
Oil, Platinum, Gold to Climb, Merrill’s Parrilla Says
(Bloomberg) -- Oil, platinum, copper and gold will extend their rally this year as growth in emerging markets including China and investment demand fuel gains, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch executive Diego Parrilla said. Crude oil will probably climb to $100 a barrel by the end of year and gold will gain to $1,500 an ounce in 18 months, said Singapore-based Parrilla, head of commodities for Asia Pacific, citing bank forecasts. Oil soared 78 percent last year and was at $81.83 a barrel today. Gold traded at $1,150.95 an ounce.Commodities, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 futures, jumped 50 percent last year, posting their best year since at least 1971, as governments pledged as much as $12 trillion to combat the worst recession in seven decades. Returns beat the 27 percent gain in the MSCI World Index of stocks and a 3.7 percent loss in Treasuries as investors sought to protect their wealth against currency debasement.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aEb5TpcQczQA
Won, Rupiah to Weaken From April on ‘Double-Dip’ Risk, SJS Says
(Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s won will lead declines in Asian currencies from the second quarter as the end of economic stimulus spending slows global growth, according to SJS Markets Ltd., the most-accurate forecaster of 2009’s rally in India and Taiwan’s currencies.Currency investors will become increasingly concerned about a double-dip in the U.S., European and Japanese economies, spurring a flight of capital from emerging markets, said Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at SJS in Hong Kong. Consumer spending won’t make up for the winding back of fiscal measures given the loss of jobs, and the currencies that’ll “suffer the most are the ones that are most freely floating,” such as the won and Indonesian rupiah, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aONuL..3uCr0
Dollar Weakens in Earnings Season in 2004 Replay, JPMorgan Says
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar will decline through the U.S. earnings season beginning this week as traders abandon bets that the Federal Reserve will bring forward interest-rate increases, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.“If earnings beat the consensus but U.S. front-end rates stay anchored, the dollar looks set to weaken again versus the currencies of the strongest economies, namely the commodity exporters and the emerging markets,” a team of analysts led by John Normand, head of global currency strategy in London, wrote in a research note dated Dec. 8.The dollar will erase its 4.6 percent December rally versus the euro, a “replay” of 2004, and it will be at least a year before the dollar strengthens alongside a rising stock market on the assumption that the U.S. will lead a global recovery, they wrote. Traders will pare speculation the U.S. will rebound faster than nations using the euro, while reducing bets that the Fed will increase rates before July or that Europe will produce a “major sovereign credit event” in 2010, they wrote.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0xGiJzLRq5w
Indonesia May Pay Premium on $4 Billion Debt Sale
(Bloom berg) -- Indonesia may have to reward investors with higher yields than the Philippines to borrow $4 billion as a rally in emerging-market bonds slows after the biggest gains in six years.Southeast Asia’s largest economy may sell 10-year debt at a yield of about 6 percent, or 2.2 percentage points more than similar maturity U.S. Treasures, according to Aberdeen Asset Management Plc and Vegagest SGR SpA. The Philippines, whose bonds carry the same BB- rating as Indonesia’s from Standard & Poor’s, priced 2020 securities last week to yield 5.67 percent.Indonesia plans to sell $750 million to $1 billion (69.2 billion yen - 92.3 billion yen) of so-called Samurai bonds this year, Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa said in Jakarta today. The country sold 35 billion yen of the bonds in July last year.
European Stocks Are ‘Over bought’ for First Time in Four Months
(Bloom berg) -- Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index became “over bought” for the first time in almost four months after climbing for 12 of the past 14 days, according to the so-called Relative Strength Index.The Stoxx 600’s 14-day RSI, which tracks momentum by comparing closing prices with daily trading ranges, rose to 70.58 as of 12:27 p.m. in London. When the RSI closes above 70, technical analysts say the gauge is “over bought” and likely to retreat. The measure last closed above 70 on Sept. 17, after which it fell nearly 5 percent through Oct. 2.The benchmark index for European equities has surged 65 percent from a 12-year low on March 9, boosted by record-low interest rates in the U.S. and Europe and about $12 trillion of commitments from governments worldwide to revive credit markets and stimulate growth. The Stoxx 600 climbed 0.5 percent to 260.41 today, extending a 15-month high.
Hong Kong Discount to Chinese Stocks May Disappear
(Bloom berg) -- China’s approval for short sales and stock index futures paves the way for foreign investors to bet on a convergence in valuations between Shanghai and Hong Kong.The China Securities Regulatory Commission cleared the overhaul of trading laws on Jan. 8 that will also permit buying equities with brokerage loans. The rules apply to Chinese citizens and the 94 international institutions authorized for mainland trading by the government. Allowing investors to profit from share declines will make trading more efficient in China and may eventually reduce the valuation gap with Hong Kong, where an index of mainland-based companies is priced at a 38 percent discount, according to ING Groep NV. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index is valued at about 34 times earnings, second behind Taiwan’s Taiex Index as the most expensive in Asia, data compiled by Bloom berg show.
Short Sales
In a short sale, an investor borrows an asset and sells it, hoping to profit from a decline by re purchasing it later at a lower price. An investor arbitrarily China might buy shares in Hong Kong and sell short the same company trading on the mainland.The Shanghai Composite climbed 0.5 percent to 3,212.75 at the close, the most in a week. The CSI 300 Index, which tracks the 300 biggest stocks traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, added 0.1 percent, after jumping as much as 3.3 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, made of shares of mainland companies traded in Hong Kong, increased 0.6 percent.
More Hedge Funds
The relaxation may spur the creation of more hedge funds in Asia, according to Ken Heinz, the president of Hedge Fund Research Inc., based in Chicago. Hedge funds are mostly private pools of capital whose managers participate substantially in the profits from speculating on whether the price of assets rise or fall.
Federal Reserve Made Record Profit in 2009: Report
By: Reuters
The U.S. Federal Reserve made record profits in 2009 and will return $45 billion to the U.S. Treasury, after its efforts to prop up the economy created a windfall for the government, the Washington Post reported.The $45 billion reflects the highest earnings in the 96-year history of the U.S. central bank, the newspaper reported on its website late on Monday. The figure was obtained by calculations based on public documents, the Post said.
The Fed funds itself from its own operations and returns its profits to the Treasury. The largest previous refund to the Treasury was $34.6 billion in 2007, the Post said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34818508
Thai Stocks May Gain Amid ‘Positive’ Candle: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s SET Index may rally further this week after the benchmark gauge formed a “positive” candlestick chart amid higher trading volume, according to Phillip Securities (Thailand) Pcl. “The candlestick and higher trading volume indicate a clear bullish sign in the short term,” Surasak Kancharoen, a technical analyst at Phillip Securities, said in a telephone interview. The gauge may test this week a “key resistance level” of 758.55, last year’s intraday peak on Oct. 13, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aosBV.rBaKMA
You Can Make Money Before Liquidity Dries Up: Citi's Levkovich
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
The S&P 500 has started the year with a five-day winning streak and historically, there is correlation between the first five days of trading and the rest of January. What does this really mean for the market and investors? Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup, shared his insights.“If you’re up for the first five days, then 75 percent of the times you’re up for the rest of the year,” Levkovich told CNBC.“And if you’re down the first 5 days, then only 44 percent of the time are you up for the full year.”However, Levkovich cautioned investors, saying they need to be careful when looking at a single indicator as being the end-all. After all, he said, the trend did not apply to the markets in 2009.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34810629
VIX Indicates 'Wall of Worry' in Markets: Derivatives Pro
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, dropped below 17 on Monday—the first time since May 2008. Is it a sign that stocks have topped? Dan Deming, trader at Stutland Equities, and Dan Hutchinson, head of derivatives at Meridian Equity Partners, shared their outlooks.“I’m not concerned about the VIX level,” Hutchinson told CNBC.However, Hutchinson said the VIX [VIX Loading... () ] and other metrics in the volatility market suggest that there is still a wall of worry in the markets.“As long as the market continues to rally into earnings, as a lot of people expect it to do, I don’t think the selloff in the VIX is particularly concerning right now,” he said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34805831
Bank Profits Means Stocks at 15% Discount to S&P 500
(Bloomberg) -- No U.S. industry has faster profit growth than banks and brokers, and no group is more hated by investors.Analysts say earnings at financial companies rose 120 percent in the fourth quarter, accounting for all of the income increase in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and will triple by 2011, climbing four times as fast as the market. Should the estimates prove correct, the shares are trading at a 15 percent discount to the index, data compiled by Bloomberg show.That’s not enough for money managers burned by the 84 percent drop in the stocks from February 2007 through March and more than 160 U.S. bank failures in the past two years. Financial companies are the least-favored equities, according to a Bank of America Corp. survey of investors with $617 billion in assets that showed 38 percent of 123 money managers are holding fewer shares than are in benchmark indexes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alEjwfiO7ggI
Daily Technical Analysis IHSG
Technical Analysis:
IHSG menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle three outside out (indikasi bullish continuation), didukung oleh ADX meningkat (indikasi momentum strong), stochastic D% masih uo (strong momentum), MACD bullish, seharusnya membatasi potensi koreksi hari ini dan menopang kinerja bullish IHSG. Hitungan EW: masih berada di wave impulse iii/3 dalam 5, tertahan di middle channel 2.650, mendorong perkiraan target minor berada di projection 100.0% di 2.629 telah ditembus untuk extend ke 2.654 (middle channel line)/2.680 (fibonacci retracement 138,2%). Berdasarkan Analisa Gann Square, IHSG dapat capai target 3.150 selama bertahan di atas support line 2.390 hingga akhir Maret bahkan target 3.800 di Juni jika bertahan diatas support 2.850. Bilamana gagal ditutup di atas support target 1.500/1.800 di H2 2010. Closed hold buy 2.561: +88 poin.
Resistance: 2665.93/2657.50/2649.06/2640.70. PP 2632.34
Support : 2623.91/2615.48/2607.11/2598.75
IHSG menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle three outside out (indikasi bullish continuation), didukung oleh ADX meningkat (indikasi momentum strong), stochastic D% masih uo (strong momentum), MACD bullish, seharusnya membatasi potensi koreksi hari ini dan menopang kinerja bullish IHSG. Hitungan EW: masih berada di wave impulse iii/3 dalam 5, tertahan di middle channel 2.650, mendorong perkiraan target minor berada di projection 100.0% di 2.629 telah ditembus untuk extend ke 2.654 (middle channel line)/2.680 (fibonacci retracement 138,2%). Berdasarkan Analisa Gann Square, IHSG dapat capai target 3.150 selama bertahan di atas support line 2.390 hingga akhir Maret bahkan target 3.800 di Juni jika bertahan diatas support 2.850. Bilamana gagal ditutup di atas support target 1.500/1.800 di H2 2010. Closed hold buy 2.561: +88 poin.
Resistance: 2665.93/2657.50/2649.06/2640.70. PP 2632.34
Support : 2623.91/2615.48/2607.11/2598.75
Monday, January 11, 2010
Update Daily Investment News
SocGen's Best Plays for 2010
By: CNBC.com
French banking giant Societe Generale has told clients how to play 2010, with an emphasis on investors avoiding sidelines and taking on risk for their portfolios.
Alain Bokobza, who heads up the strategy team in Paris, highlighted the following trading ideas for making money this year. Be a commodity bull. “Rising inflation fears, growth in emerging countries and US job creation should trigger inflows.”Stay in equities. “Double-digit earnings growth and a normalizing risk premium should support equities.”Anything but cash. “Abnormally low expected return as fears of a double-dip scenario will delay rate hikes.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34763486
Dollar's Rally Has Room to Run: Charts
By: CNBC.com
The dollar has turned a corner against the yen, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, said Monday."The rally in the dollar has got further to go," Griffiths said, adding that the yen's upward trend looks to be over as Japan's new finance minister appears to have a different agenda from the previous minister's."All markets are going to go a little higher for a little longer. But the place where markets are going to make new highs has always been in the emerging market space," Griffiths told CNBC.Emerging markets are "dramatically more volatile than our Western markets" and that is likely to persist, he noted."The shorter-term swings are brutal," Griffiths added.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34801673
Euro May Keep Rising, Commerzbank Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may rise against the dollar, extending the rebound from its 200-day moving average, Commerzbank AG said, citing technical indicators. The euro is “correcting higher” from its 200-day moving average at $1.4259, which it reached on Jan. 8, Karen Jones, head of fixed-income, commodity and currency technical analysis in London, wrote in a research report today.“We look for further short-term gains,” Jones said in a telephone interview. “This is a short-term rebound in the euro, and the strength is viewed as corrective.”Should the single European currency continue to advance against the dollar, it will encounter so-called resistance at $1.4570, a Fibonacci retracement level, and then a second hurdle at $1.4680 before meeting its 55-day moving average at $1.4698, Jones said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZWarYA9yQ3c
China Stocks Set for ‘Imminent’ Turnaround: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- China’s Shanghai Composite Index is poised for an “imminent” rebound as the measure held above a so-called support level, according to DMG & Partners Securities. The index fell to as low as 3,149.02 points in intraday trading on Jan. 8 before rebounding to close at 3,196. The measure dropped 2.5 percent last week, on concern government steps to curb lending growth and property speculation will slow expansion in the world’s third-largest economy.“Given that this 3,148 support barrier has not been broken below, we still opine that the trend of the index remains positive,” James Lim, Singapore-based analyst at DMG & Partners, wrote in a report. “Investors should thus capitalize on this possible turnaround expected in the present week.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0lXtXxnKKKA
By: CNBC.com
French banking giant Societe Generale has told clients how to play 2010, with an emphasis on investors avoiding sidelines and taking on risk for their portfolios.
Alain Bokobza, who heads up the strategy team in Paris, highlighted the following trading ideas for making money this year. Be a commodity bull. “Rising inflation fears, growth in emerging countries and US job creation should trigger inflows.”Stay in equities. “Double-digit earnings growth and a normalizing risk premium should support equities.”Anything but cash. “Abnormally low expected return as fears of a double-dip scenario will delay rate hikes.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34763486
Dollar's Rally Has Room to Run: Charts
By: CNBC.com
The dollar has turned a corner against the yen, Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, said Monday."The rally in the dollar has got further to go," Griffiths said, adding that the yen's upward trend looks to be over as Japan's new finance minister appears to have a different agenda from the previous minister's."All markets are going to go a little higher for a little longer. But the place where markets are going to make new highs has always been in the emerging market space," Griffiths told CNBC.Emerging markets are "dramatically more volatile than our Western markets" and that is likely to persist, he noted."The shorter-term swings are brutal," Griffiths added.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34801673
Euro May Keep Rising, Commerzbank Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may rise against the dollar, extending the rebound from its 200-day moving average, Commerzbank AG said, citing technical indicators. The euro is “correcting higher” from its 200-day moving average at $1.4259, which it reached on Jan. 8, Karen Jones, head of fixed-income, commodity and currency technical analysis in London, wrote in a research report today.“We look for further short-term gains,” Jones said in a telephone interview. “This is a short-term rebound in the euro, and the strength is viewed as corrective.”Should the single European currency continue to advance against the dollar, it will encounter so-called resistance at $1.4570, a Fibonacci retracement level, and then a second hurdle at $1.4680 before meeting its 55-day moving average at $1.4698, Jones said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZWarYA9yQ3c
China Stocks Set for ‘Imminent’ Turnaround: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- China’s Shanghai Composite Index is poised for an “imminent” rebound as the measure held above a so-called support level, according to DMG & Partners Securities. The index fell to as low as 3,149.02 points in intraday trading on Jan. 8 before rebounding to close at 3,196. The measure dropped 2.5 percent last week, on concern government steps to curb lending growth and property speculation will slow expansion in the world’s third-largest economy.“Given that this 3,148 support barrier has not been broken below, we still opine that the trend of the index remains positive,” James Lim, Singapore-based analyst at DMG & Partners, wrote in a report. “Investors should thus capitalize on this possible turnaround expected in the present week.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0lXtXxnKKKA
Update Daily Investment News
New Years Rally to Continue—for Now
Stocks swung higher into the new year and could continue an upward drift as the fourth-quarter earnings season gets going.The first major Dow component, Alcoa [AA 17.02 0.41 (+2.47%) ], reports earnings Monday and there are just several more major names—JPMorgan Chase [JPM 44.68 -0.11 (-0.25%) ] and Intel [INTC 20.83 0.23 (+1.12%) ]—reporting later in the week. Analysts expect corporate profits to mostly show improvement from last year's period, when the big deluge of earnings news starts after the middle of the month.Most of the action in the week ahead will come from a heavy dose of economic reports, including December retail sales and the Fed's beige book on the economy. The Treasury also auctions another $80 plus billion in notes and bonds in the coming week.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34775046
Halftime Report: Is S&P Gunning For 1200?
By: Lee Brodie
Stocks [.SPX 1144.98 3.29 (+0.29%) ] traded sideways on Friday as investors swallowed a big gulp, after the latest jobs report caught many completely off guard.
The latest data show U.S. employers cut 85,000 jobs in December, far more than the expected loss of 8,000.The results cooled optimism on the labor market's recovery and kept stocks under pressure.How should you be positioned now?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34767464
US Can 'Certainly' See Double-Dip This Year: Strategist
By: JeeYeon Park
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the “Investor Fear Gauge," hit a 19 month low on Friday. What does it all mean for stocks and investments going forward? Hank Smith, chief investment officer of Haverford Investments, and Mike Rubino, president of Rubino Financial, discussed their market analyses. (See their recommendations, below.“The real thing that’s driving the economy is the deleveraging of the debt in housing markets that continues,” Rubino told CNBC. “Defaults continue to rise in an improving economy…We expect another round of defaults in the middle of this year in the late summer.”As a result, Rubino said the U.S. could “certainly” see a double-dip in the economy.“Our strategy is to be awfully cautious at this point,” he advised.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34767975
Buy Indonesia’s Bumi, Alam Sutera, Danareksa Says
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s mining stocks such as PT Bumi Resources may rise as commodity prices advance, and investors should buy property developers for gains from low borrowing costs, PT Danareksa Sekuritas said. Coal, nickel and tin prices will probably rise as the global economy recovers from a recession, said Metty Fauziah Wardhani, a mining analyst at Danareksa Sekuritas, the best Indonesian brokerage in 2009, according to an Asiamoney magazine poll. Lower mortgage rates and infrastructure development may boost developers including PT Alam Sutera Realty, Danareksa’s Lydia Suwandi said yesterday.The Jakarta Composite index rose 87 percent last year, making it Asia’s second-best performer. Shares of Bumi more than doubled in 2009 after a 78 percent gain in oil prices improved the outlook for alternative fuels. Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty on Jan. 7 raised its spot price forecasts for thermal coal to $86 a metric ton on stronger demand from China and other buyers. Bumi shares have jumped 20 percent this week so far on better-than- expected earnings for the first nine months of 2009.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7rlj6Fv88T0
The comeback quarter
The upcoming results season should show profit and sales growth returning
(MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock investors in the next week are likely to turn to earnings from Alcoa Inc., Intel Corp. and J.P. Morgan, bellwethers slated to usher in the fourth-quarter results season, for the corporate view on economic recovery.
They're expecting good tidings.The large, U.S.-based companies that make up the S&P 500 /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 1,145, +3.29, +0.29%) are collectively expected to show profit increases for the first time since the second quarter of 2007, breaking a string of nine quarterly profit declines.Alcoa and Intel kick off earnings season next week. Retail sales, CPI and the Fed's Beige Book are also on tap. MarketWatch's Stacey Delo reports.It's an eye-popping growth rate analysts are anticipating: Profit likely expanded 184% from the last dismal quarter of 2008, largely thanks to financial institutions swinging to profits from deep losses.Without financials, profit at Standard & Poor's 500 corporations would increase an estimated 8%, says Thomson Reuters.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-next-week-the-return-of-profit-growth-2010-01-09
Dollar seen strengthening in early 2010
(MarketWatch) -- After watching the U.S. dollar slide for most of the past year, many analysts expect it to strengthen in the first part of 2010 as the U.S. economy recovers faster than other in Japan and most of Europe.But beyond that, the longer-term outlook remains shakier. Much will depend on the shape of the economic recovery and what happens to the unprecedented stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government."After a schizophrenic two years, the dollar has come full circle to pre-credit crisis levels," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets./quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 DXY 77.50, +0.03, +0.04%. The financial system's near-collapse led to a 16% surge in the U.S. currency from October 2008 through March 2009, as investors sought the dollar's safety. And avoiding the abyss led to a nearly 17% slide from March to November of last year.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-seen-strengthening-in-early-2010-2010-01-09
b
Five Themes for 2010
Morgan Stanley
1. A tale of two worlds. Growth in the emerging world becomes more balanced and will by far outpace growth in the advanced economies this year.
2. ‘BBB recovery' in the G10. We expect the recovery in the advanced economies to be creditless and jobless, making it bumpy, below-par and boring.
3. G3 growth differentiation. We see the US as the growth leader among the G3, the euro area to lag behind, and Japan to double-dip.
4. ‘AAA liquidity cycle' remains intact. Central banks will crawl rather than rush towards the exit, so global liquidity continues to be ample, abundant and augmenting.
5. Sovereign and inflation risks on the rise. The next crisis is likely to be a crisis of confidence in governments' and central banks' ability to shoulder the rising public sector debt burden without creating inflation.
Exit to exit
Last year was all about the exit from the Great Recession - and it worked courtesy of massive global policy stimulus, as expected. This year will be all about the exit from super-expansionary monetary policy. As we laid out in more detail in the final issue of The Global Monetary Analyst on December 16, we expect the major central banks to start exiting around the middle of this year.Yes, they will likely be cautious, gradual and transparent, but the prospect and process of withdrawal may have unintended consequences: We think that government bond markets will be the first victim. While the exit will be the dominant macro theme next year, we identify five important economic themes in our global economic outlook that should be highly relevant for investors in 2010.
Stocks swung higher into the new year and could continue an upward drift as the fourth-quarter earnings season gets going.The first major Dow component, Alcoa [AA 17.02 0.41 (+2.47%) ], reports earnings Monday and there are just several more major names—JPMorgan Chase [JPM 44.68 -0.11 (-0.25%) ] and Intel [INTC 20.83 0.23 (+1.12%) ]—reporting later in the week. Analysts expect corporate profits to mostly show improvement from last year's period, when the big deluge of earnings news starts after the middle of the month.Most of the action in the week ahead will come from a heavy dose of economic reports, including December retail sales and the Fed's beige book on the economy. The Treasury also auctions another $80 plus billion in notes and bonds in the coming week.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34775046
Halftime Report: Is S&P Gunning For 1200?
By: Lee Brodie
Stocks [.SPX 1144.98 3.29 (+0.29%) ] traded sideways on Friday as investors swallowed a big gulp, after the latest jobs report caught many completely off guard.
The latest data show U.S. employers cut 85,000 jobs in December, far more than the expected loss of 8,000.The results cooled optimism on the labor market's recovery and kept stocks under pressure.How should you be positioned now?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34767464
US Can 'Certainly' See Double-Dip This Year: Strategist
By: JeeYeon Park
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the “Investor Fear Gauge," hit a 19 month low on Friday. What does it all mean for stocks and investments going forward? Hank Smith, chief investment officer of Haverford Investments, and Mike Rubino, president of Rubino Financial, discussed their market analyses. (See their recommendations, below.“The real thing that’s driving the economy is the deleveraging of the debt in housing markets that continues,” Rubino told CNBC. “Defaults continue to rise in an improving economy…We expect another round of defaults in the middle of this year in the late summer.”As a result, Rubino said the U.S. could “certainly” see a double-dip in the economy.“Our strategy is to be awfully cautious at this point,” he advised.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34767975
Buy Indonesia’s Bumi, Alam Sutera, Danareksa Says
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s mining stocks such as PT Bumi Resources may rise as commodity prices advance, and investors should buy property developers for gains from low borrowing costs, PT Danareksa Sekuritas said. Coal, nickel and tin prices will probably rise as the global economy recovers from a recession, said Metty Fauziah Wardhani, a mining analyst at Danareksa Sekuritas, the best Indonesian brokerage in 2009, according to an Asiamoney magazine poll. Lower mortgage rates and infrastructure development may boost developers including PT Alam Sutera Realty, Danareksa’s Lydia Suwandi said yesterday.The Jakarta Composite index rose 87 percent last year, making it Asia’s second-best performer. Shares of Bumi more than doubled in 2009 after a 78 percent gain in oil prices improved the outlook for alternative fuels. Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty on Jan. 7 raised its spot price forecasts for thermal coal to $86 a metric ton on stronger demand from China and other buyers. Bumi shares have jumped 20 percent this week so far on better-than- expected earnings for the first nine months of 2009.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7rlj6Fv88T0
The comeback quarter
The upcoming results season should show profit and sales growth returning
(MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock investors in the next week are likely to turn to earnings from Alcoa Inc., Intel Corp. and J.P. Morgan, bellwethers slated to usher in the fourth-quarter results season, for the corporate view on economic recovery.
They're expecting good tidings.The large, U.S.-based companies that make up the S&P 500 /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 1,145, +3.29, +0.29%) are collectively expected to show profit increases for the first time since the second quarter of 2007, breaking a string of nine quarterly profit declines.Alcoa and Intel kick off earnings season next week. Retail sales, CPI and the Fed's Beige Book are also on tap. MarketWatch's Stacey Delo reports.It's an eye-popping growth rate analysts are anticipating: Profit likely expanded 184% from the last dismal quarter of 2008, largely thanks to financial institutions swinging to profits from deep losses.Without financials, profit at Standard & Poor's 500 corporations would increase an estimated 8%, says Thomson Reuters.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-next-week-the-return-of-profit-growth-2010-01-09
Dollar seen strengthening in early 2010
(MarketWatch) -- After watching the U.S. dollar slide for most of the past year, many analysts expect it to strengthen in the first part of 2010 as the U.S. economy recovers faster than other in Japan and most of Europe.But beyond that, the longer-term outlook remains shakier. Much will depend on the shape of the economic recovery and what happens to the unprecedented stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government."After a schizophrenic two years, the dollar has come full circle to pre-credit crisis levels," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets./quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 DXY 77.50, +0.03, +0.04%. The financial system's near-collapse led to a 16% surge in the U.S. currency from October 2008 through March 2009, as investors sought the dollar's safety. And avoiding the abyss led to a nearly 17% slide from March to November of last year.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-seen-strengthening-in-early-2010-2010-01-09
b
Five Themes for 2010
Morgan Stanley
1. A tale of two worlds. Growth in the emerging world becomes more balanced and will by far outpace growth in the advanced economies this year.
2. ‘BBB recovery' in the G10. We expect the recovery in the advanced economies to be creditless and jobless, making it bumpy, below-par and boring.
3. G3 growth differentiation. We see the US as the growth leader among the G3, the euro area to lag behind, and Japan to double-dip.
4. ‘AAA liquidity cycle' remains intact. Central banks will crawl rather than rush towards the exit, so global liquidity continues to be ample, abundant and augmenting.
5. Sovereign and inflation risks on the rise. The next crisis is likely to be a crisis of confidence in governments' and central banks' ability to shoulder the rising public sector debt burden without creating inflation.
Exit to exit
Last year was all about the exit from the Great Recession - and it worked courtesy of massive global policy stimulus, as expected. This year will be all about the exit from super-expansionary monetary policy. As we laid out in more detail in the final issue of The Global Monetary Analyst on December 16, we expect the major central banks to start exiting around the middle of this year.Yes, they will likely be cautious, gradual and transparent, but the prospect and process of withdrawal may have unintended consequences: We think that government bond markets will be the first victim. While the exit will be the dominant macro theme next year, we identify five important economic themes in our global economic outlook that should be highly relevant for investors in 2010.
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