Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.4017, 1.3988 and 1.3961(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3944, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3920. Break of the latter would result in 1.3903. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3892. Continuation will give 1.3866.Today's resistance: - 1.4180 and 1.4223(main). Break would give 1.4254, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4276. Break of the latter would result in 1.4299. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4331. Continuation will give 1.4356 and 1.4400.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 89.10, 88.66 and 88.22(main). Break would bring 88.07, where correction is possible. Then 87.76, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 87.53. If a strong impulse, we would see 87.31. Continuation would give 87.08. Today's resistance: - 90.47 and 90.81(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 90.90, where also a correction may be. Then 91.18. If a strong impulse, we would see 91.34. Continuation will give 91.78.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 10209.37, 10190.57 and 10168,24(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10155.70, where correction also can be. Then follows 10140.87. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 10119.30. Continuation will bring 10092.25 and 10068.76.Today's resistance: - 10350.24(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 10374.40, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10728.70, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 10470.94. Continuation would bring 10496.30 and 10527.12.
20% to 25% Correction by May: Market Analyst
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
Investors await the slew of corporate earnings results this week. What should they be expecting? Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets, shared his market insights.“There’s still a lot of confusion in the market. We’re looking at a pretty positive earnings season overall, but as we saw last week, it was basically ignored due to political conflicts and we’re likely to see more of that,” Cook told CNBC.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35062099
Market Crash if US Policies Continue: Dick Bove
By: CNBC.com staff Some worry Washington actions may create a new bear market. But Dick Bove, financial strategist at Rochdale Securities, fears the worst: He warns that America's government may instigate a full-fledged market crash. Bove offered CNBC his insights — and named bank stocks that are still strong investments. "We all agree the market is driven by money. If the money supply increases, the money gets into the market and stock prices go up," Bove noted.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35065219
Extra Reserves for China Banks Take Effect, Markets Hit
By: CNBC.com With Wires
China's central bank has told the banks that need to raise their reserve ratios to implement the change on Tuesday, banking sources said.As reported last week, the central bank told some banks to increase their reserve ratios by 0.5 percentage point. That comes into effect on Tuesday.No new banks have been slapped with fresh higher reserve requirement ratios, the sources said.Reuters reported last week that CITIC Bank, the country's seventh-largest bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the top lender, had been instructed to raise their reserve ratios after excessive lending.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35070681
Korea, Taiwan Stocks May Reverse Uptrend: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Stock benchmarks in South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia fell last week after rallying to new highs from their 2009 lows, a pattern that may signal a trend reversal for share prices, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said. The Kospi and Taiex indexes rose to their highs from the 2009 low on Jan. 19, before ending the week lower by 1 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively. The Jakarta Composite Index, which reached an intraday high on Jan. 20, also declined 1.4 percent last week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adGeDBASemAU
Euro May Fall to 7-Month Low Against Dollar: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may fall to a seven-month low of $1.38 should it close below so-called support at $1.4118, said Pak Lai Ng, a technical analyst at Forecast Pte in Singapore, citing trading patterns. Europe’s currency is likely to test the $1.4118 level in coming days because daily momentum charts such as the moving average convergence/divergence, or MACD, show a sell signal for the euro versus the dollar, Ng said. The support is a 38.2 percent retracement of the euro’s rise from its March low of $1.2457 to the November high of $1.5144, based on a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ah0tfmR.Gsqg
Dollar May Resume Fall, JPM Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may resume its long-term decline because it failed to break through key resistance levels even after a two-month rally, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.
The Dollar Index, which InterContinental Exchange Inc. uses to gauge the strength of the greenback against a basket of six currencies, needs to break through 79.02, a 38.2 percent retracement of its decline to a 15-month low of 74.17 in November from 86.871 in April, to “seriously question” the currency’s long-term slide, wrote Niall O’Connor, a technical strategist in New York.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aWLqkWakOgFA
Hang Seng Falling 10% Shows China Risks to Banks
(Bloomberg) -- The 10 percent drop in Hong Kong equities since November underscores the increasing threat to valuations as China curbs growth and the U.S. proposes limits on the banking industry. Financial firms and property developers led the Hang Seng Index down from a peak on Nov. 16 after China mandated higher loan reserves and U.S. President Barack Obama sought to bar banks from proprietary trading. The Hang Seng fell nine of the last 10 days into the first so-called correction among developed markets in 2010, after a 128 percent gain in lenders last year spurred the biggest advance in a decade. It decreased 0.9 percent to 20,416.13 as of 11:02 a.m. in Hong Kong today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aRCLJIpY19XI
MSCI China Falls 10% From High, Enters Correction
(Bloomberg) -- The MSCI China Index fell more than 10 percent from last year’s high in November, dragging the country’s stocks into a so-called correction, on concern government measures to curb lending will derail growth. The MSCI China, which tracks 118 mostly Hong Kong-traded Chinese companies, declined 1.6 percent to 60.49 at 11:06 a.m. New York time. The measure has fallen 10 percent from the Nov. 17 peak of 67.26, the threshold that defines a so-called correction. The index gained 59 percent last year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1PZ2fZqd4jQ
Legg Mason’s Bill Miller Says 2010 Will Be Good Year for Stocks
(Bloomberg) -- Legg Mason Inc.’s Bill Miller said 2010 will be a good year for stocks and a “challenging” one for bonds. “After spending 10 years in the wilderness, high-quality U.S. large-capitalization stocks are cheap compared to bonds,” Miller said today in his quarterly letter to investors.Miller, known for beating the S&P 500 Index a record 15 straight years through 2005, trailed the U.S. market benchmark for the next three years. His Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust fell 55 percent in 2008, while his Opportunity Trust fund dropped 65 percent. Both rebounded last year after Miller’s bet on an improving economy paid off.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aH9_M1BmyRWQ
Global Stocks ‘Vulnerable to Correction,’ Rogers Says
(Bloomberg) -- Global equities are “vulnerable to correction” after rallying from their March lows and as governments around the world withdraw stimulus measures, said investor Jim Rogers, author of “A Bull in China.” The MSCI World Index climbed 67 percent from a more than 13-year low on March 9 as governments boosted spending and central banks cut borrowing costs to pull the global economy out of its worst recession since World War II. The gauge has fallen 4.9 percent from a 16-month high on Jan. 14.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aIslcLyrGHUA
U.K. Stocks Not Overvalued in Spite of Rally, PwC Study Says
(Bloomberg) -- The U.K. stock market isn’t overvalued, although the FTSE 100 index gained more than 22 percent in 2009, according to research by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP released today. Of the nine stock markets surveyed by Yael Selfin, PwC’s head of macro consulting, the German and Dutch markets were the most overvalued and Britain’s and Sweden’s the least, according to the study. That means Britain and Sweden are best placed of the world’s leading equity markets to cope with global market corrections, since they are trading close to “fair value,” the study said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aykUnciy0v18
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Monday, January 25, 2010
Track Record Saham IHSG/JKSE (17 Juni 2009 - 22 Januari 2010 = 29 Pekan)
Track Record Saham IHSG PT Universal Broker Indonesia Securities (TF): Periode 17 Juni 2009 - 22 Januari 2010 = 29 Pekan
Track Record (14 - 22 Januari 2010):
Average +120,09% (28 Pekan) + 1,23% (total +24,7% dari 24 Saham Pilihan Pekan ini: 05 - 12 Jan 10) = Total 121,32% (Profit: 28 Pekan / Loss: 1 Pekan; Profit dalam 11 Pekan terakhir; sebelumnya 11 pekan lalu 17 pekan berturut-turut Positive Return) = Average 4.183%/Week. Outperform IHSG dalam 29 pekan = +29,655% (IHSG Range 9 poin: 1,750-2,610); Average 1.022%/week.
BNBR -6,4%/TLKM -0,53%/BSDE +4,76%/ELTY +2%/UNTR -0,57%/INKP 0%/HMSP +13,8%/CTRP -3,44%/SMCB +4,24%/DOID +12,5%/BUMI -3,60%/SMRA +6,25%/ASRI -2,54%/SDRA -5,7%/TRUB -9,7%/INDY 2,91%/MAPI +4,76%/RALS +8,0%/ASGR +7,5%/BCIP -9.5%.2
Track Record (05 - 12 Januari 2010)
BUMI +17,2%/BBCA +1,9%/BMRI -1,5%/BBRI 0%/SGRO 7,0%/ ASII -0,14%/AALI 5,0%/INKP +19,8%/JSMR +1,6%/INDF +3,33%/HMSP 13,3%/HEXA +19,2%/TLKM -1,04%/CSAP -9.5%/TINS +6,8%/ANTM +2,15%/INCO +1,9%/UNTR +12,5%/PTBA 1,1%/ADRO +12,5%/DOID -2,3%/CTRA +24,5%/BSDE -1,1%/TBLA 5,33%
Track Record (17 Juni - 30 Desember 2009)
Average +110.88% (25 Pekan) + 3.40% (total +57.86% dari 17 Saham Pilihan Pekan ini: 28 Des - 30 Des 09) = Total 114.28% (Profit: 26 Pekan / Loss: 1 Pekan; Profit dalam 7 Pekan terakhir; sebelumnya 7 pekan lalu 17 pekan berturut-turut Positive Return) = Average 4.235%/Week. Outperform IHSG dalam 27 pekan = +30.46% (IHSG Range 1,750-2,542); Average 1.12%/week.
Track Record ( 28 Des - 30 Des 09) = +3,40%
BUMI +8,6%/PTBA +2,36%/ DOID +13,5%/ASII +1,7%/BRPT +3,8%/SGRO +2,8%
/HEXA +5,0%/ADRO 0% /ITMG +0,6%/BBRI 0%/BMRI +2.3%/INCO +2.0%/ TINS
+5,8%/ ANTM +1,1%/TLKM 0%/ELTY -1,0%/DEWA +9.3%
Track Record (16 Des - 23 Des 09)
BMRI +1.1%/ASII +0.58%/UNVR +0.44%/MNCN -4.6%/BSDE 0%/ANTM -1.1%/INDF +3.78%/GGRM +1.5%/UNTR +0.9%/HEXA -2.4%/PGAS -1.3%/SMGR +4.7%/INTP +3.9%/SMCB -1.3%/LSIP -4.1%/INKP +1.1%/BBTN +3.7%/BUMI 0%/TLKM -2.2%/ADRO -1.7%/ASRI -4.5%/SGRO 0%/BKDP +8.1%/INDY +3.7%/INCO +1.5%/DOID 1.3%/GDST -9.9%.
Track Record (09 Des - 14 Des 09)
BUMI 2.450 +3.9%/BMRI +2.7%/BBRI +1.9%/ASII +2.8%/UNVR +1.35%/TLKM +4.8%/BSDE +10%/JSMR +1.06%/ANTM +2.2%/INDF 0%/GGRM +15.5%/UNTR +10.9%/HEXA +6.8%/INCO 0%/BKSL 0%/PGAS +4.5% /SMGR 3.44%/INTP 4.09%
Track Record (25 Nov - 03 Des 09)
BUMI 2.575 (0%)/PTBA 15.750 (+17.7%)/ADRO 1.710 (+3.5%)/BMRI 4.600 (+1.08%)/ BBRI 7.600 (+5.9%)/ BKSL 101 (-4.9%)/RAJA 215 (-2.3%)/CTRA 550 (-1.8%)/BSDE 820 (+3.65%)/BTEL 155 (+1.29%)/INDF 3.175 (0%)/ BNBR 100 (+1.0%)/ KLBF 1.270 (+0.78%)/BRPT 1.330 (+2.2%)/ELTY 23 0 (+4.3%).
Track Record (19 - 23 November 2009)
BUMI +11.7%/DEWA +3.7%/PGAS +1.9%/DOID -0.6%/ASII +0.9%/MEDC 3.7%/ANTM 4.2%/SMGR 0%/HEXA -0.84%/TRUB +4.8%/BKSL +10.1%/PTBA 6.7%/ENRG +5.2%/BMRI +1.06%/TLKM 1.1%
Track Record Periode 09 Nov - 17 Nov: (24 Posisi)
PTBA 5.4%/DOID 10.0%/BBRI 3.3%/BBCA 0.5%/BMRI 0%/ MEDC 2.8%/PGAS 3.4%/JSMR 2.7%/SMRA 0%/CTRS -5.8%/SGRO 3.0%/ INDF 3.2%/KLBF 2.2%/GGRM 1.7%/SMCB 4.9%/SMGR 0%/ANTM 11.2%/MYOR 14.2%/UNVR 7.8%/ITMG 17.9%/BUMI 12.6%/ENRG 1.7%/ TRUB 9.7%/ASII 3.9%/FREN 3.7%
Track Record Periode 26 Okt - 06 Nov: (29 Posisi):
BBRI +2.7/BMRI 0%/PTBA -0.67%/ADRO 0%/PGAS +0.68%/SDRA 0%/AKRA +6.8%/BSDE +12.6%/SMGR 11.1%/SMRA +13.0%/BUMI +11.36%/ENRG +30%/HEXA 4.4%/MEDC 4.8%/BBCA +2.7%/INCO 0%/PGAS +2.7%/SMCB -1.2%/ASII -1.2%/INDF +2.4%/GGRM +12.2%/TRUB 0%/ANTM 3.2%/INKP -9.5%/BUMI -2.04%/SMCB 2.5%/ENRG 9.2%/ASII -0.6%/INDF 5.08%. Total Profit +122.21% untuk 29 posisi.
Track Record Periode 19 - 23 Okt:
BUMI (3.000) -9.16%, JSMR (1.860) -1.07%, INCO (4.225) +1.18%, PGAS (3.750) 0%, PTBA (14.650) +2.39%, ANTM (2.625) -0.95%, SMGR 6.950 -2.1%, UNTR (16.500) -3.03%, SMCB (1.640) -1.8%, KLBF (1.340) -2.2%/HEXA 3.075 -0.8%, SGRO (2.400) 2.08%,BMRI (4.775) -1.04%, BBRI (7.850) -3.18%, AALI (22.200) -0.45%, TLKM (8.650) +0.57%, UNVR (10.850) -3.38%, ADRO (1.510) +7.94%, BBCA (4.775) 0%, ITMG (24.450) 0% (+Dividen Rp 648).
Track Record Periode 12 - 16 Okt:
BUMI (2900) +4.3%, INDF (3100) +3.2%, JSMR (1800) +3.9%, ASII (33500)-0.6%, ANTM (2600) +1.9%, TLKM (8650) +0.6%, UNVR (11000) 0%, UNTR (15500) +7.7%, SMCB (1550) +7.1%, KLBF (1320) +2.3%, BMRI (4875) +1.03%, BBRI (8050) -0.62%, SMGR (6700) +5.2%, BSDE (640) +12.5%, PGAS (3575) +4.9%, MEDC (3175) 0%, INCO (4150) +2.4%, TINS (2200) +1.1%, SDRA (320) 1.5%.
Track Record Periode 17 Juni - 09 Okt 2009 lainnya bisa dilihat di blog (globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com).
Track Record (14 - 22 Januari 2010):
Average +120,09% (28 Pekan) + 1,23% (total +24,7% dari 24 Saham Pilihan Pekan ini: 05 - 12 Jan 10) = Total 121,32% (Profit: 28 Pekan / Loss: 1 Pekan; Profit dalam 11 Pekan terakhir; sebelumnya 11 pekan lalu 17 pekan berturut-turut Positive Return) = Average 4.183%/Week. Outperform IHSG dalam 29 pekan = +29,655% (IHSG Range 9 poin: 1,750-2,610); Average 1.022%/week.
BNBR -6,4%/TLKM -0,53%/BSDE +4,76%/ELTY +2%/UNTR -0,57%/INKP 0%/HMSP +13,8%/CTRP -3,44%/SMCB +4,24%/DOID +12,5%/BUMI -3,60%/SMRA +6,25%/ASRI -2,54%/SDRA -5,7%/TRUB -9,7%/INDY 2,91%/MAPI +4,76%/RALS +8,0%/ASGR +7,5%/BCIP -9.5%.2
Track Record (05 - 12 Januari 2010)
BUMI +17,2%/BBCA +1,9%/BMRI -1,5%/BBRI 0%/SGRO 7,0%/ ASII -0,14%/AALI 5,0%/INKP +19,8%/JSMR +1,6%/INDF +3,33%/HMSP 13,3%/HEXA +19,2%/TLKM -1,04%/CSAP -9.5%/TINS +6,8%/ANTM +2,15%/INCO +1,9%/UNTR +12,5%/PTBA 1,1%/ADRO +12,5%/DOID -2,3%/CTRA +24,5%/BSDE -1,1%/TBLA 5,33%
Track Record (17 Juni - 30 Desember 2009)
Average +110.88% (25 Pekan) + 3.40% (total +57.86% dari 17 Saham Pilihan Pekan ini: 28 Des - 30 Des 09) = Total 114.28% (Profit: 26 Pekan / Loss: 1 Pekan; Profit dalam 7 Pekan terakhir; sebelumnya 7 pekan lalu 17 pekan berturut-turut Positive Return) = Average 4.235%/Week. Outperform IHSG dalam 27 pekan = +30.46% (IHSG Range 1,750-2,542); Average 1.12%/week.
Track Record ( 28 Des - 30 Des 09) = +3,40%
BUMI +8,6%/PTBA +2,36%/ DOID +13,5%/ASII +1,7%/BRPT +3,8%/SGRO +2,8%
/HEXA +5,0%/ADRO 0% /ITMG +0,6%/BBRI 0%/BMRI +2.3%/INCO +2.0%/ TINS
+5,8%/ ANTM +1,1%/TLKM 0%/ELTY -1,0%/DEWA +9.3%
Track Record (16 Des - 23 Des 09)
BMRI +1.1%/ASII +0.58%/UNVR +0.44%/MNCN -4.6%/BSDE 0%/ANTM -1.1%/INDF +3.78%/GGRM +1.5%/UNTR +0.9%/HEXA -2.4%/PGAS -1.3%/SMGR +4.7%/INTP +3.9%/SMCB -1.3%/LSIP -4.1%/INKP +1.1%/BBTN +3.7%/BUMI 0%/TLKM -2.2%/ADRO -1.7%/ASRI -4.5%/SGRO 0%/BKDP +8.1%/INDY +3.7%/INCO +1.5%/DOID 1.3%/GDST -9.9%.
Track Record (09 Des - 14 Des 09)
BUMI 2.450 +3.9%/BMRI +2.7%/BBRI +1.9%/ASII +2.8%/UNVR +1.35%/TLKM +4.8%/BSDE +10%/JSMR +1.06%/ANTM +2.2%/INDF 0%/GGRM +15.5%/UNTR +10.9%/HEXA +6.8%/INCO 0%/BKSL 0%/PGAS +4.5% /SMGR 3.44%/INTP 4.09%
Track Record (25 Nov - 03 Des 09)
BUMI 2.575 (0%)/PTBA 15.750 (+17.7%)/ADRO 1.710 (+3.5%)/BMRI 4.600 (+1.08%)/ BBRI 7.600 (+5.9%)/ BKSL 101 (-4.9%)/RAJA 215 (-2.3%)/CTRA 550 (-1.8%)/BSDE 820 (+3.65%)/BTEL 155 (+1.29%)/INDF 3.175 (0%)/ BNBR 100 (+1.0%)/ KLBF 1.270 (+0.78%)/BRPT 1.330 (+2.2%)/ELTY 23 0 (+4.3%).
Track Record (19 - 23 November 2009)
BUMI +11.7%/DEWA +3.7%/PGAS +1.9%/DOID -0.6%/ASII +0.9%/MEDC 3.7%/ANTM 4.2%/SMGR 0%/HEXA -0.84%/TRUB +4.8%/BKSL +10.1%/PTBA 6.7%/ENRG +5.2%/BMRI +1.06%/TLKM 1.1%
Track Record Periode 09 Nov - 17 Nov: (24 Posisi)
PTBA 5.4%/DOID 10.0%/BBRI 3.3%/BBCA 0.5%/BMRI 0%/ MEDC 2.8%/PGAS 3.4%/JSMR 2.7%/SMRA 0%/CTRS -5.8%/SGRO 3.0%/ INDF 3.2%/KLBF 2.2%/GGRM 1.7%/SMCB 4.9%/SMGR 0%/ANTM 11.2%/MYOR 14.2%/UNVR 7.8%/ITMG 17.9%/BUMI 12.6%/ENRG 1.7%/ TRUB 9.7%/ASII 3.9%/FREN 3.7%
Track Record Periode 26 Okt - 06 Nov: (29 Posisi):
BBRI +2.7/BMRI 0%/PTBA -0.67%/ADRO 0%/PGAS +0.68%/SDRA 0%/AKRA +6.8%/BSDE +12.6%/SMGR 11.1%/SMRA +13.0%/BUMI +11.36%/ENRG +30%/HEXA 4.4%/MEDC 4.8%/BBCA +2.7%/INCO 0%/PGAS +2.7%/SMCB -1.2%/ASII -1.2%/INDF +2.4%/GGRM +12.2%/TRUB 0%/ANTM 3.2%/INKP -9.5%/BUMI -2.04%/SMCB 2.5%/ENRG 9.2%/ASII -0.6%/INDF 5.08%. Total Profit +122.21% untuk 29 posisi.
Track Record Periode 19 - 23 Okt:
BUMI (3.000) -9.16%, JSMR (1.860) -1.07%, INCO (4.225) +1.18%, PGAS (3.750) 0%, PTBA (14.650) +2.39%, ANTM (2.625) -0.95%, SMGR 6.950 -2.1%, UNTR (16.500) -3.03%, SMCB (1.640) -1.8%, KLBF (1.340) -2.2%/HEXA 3.075 -0.8%, SGRO (2.400) 2.08%,BMRI (4.775) -1.04%, BBRI (7.850) -3.18%, AALI (22.200) -0.45%, TLKM (8.650) +0.57%, UNVR (10.850) -3.38%, ADRO (1.510) +7.94%, BBCA (4.775) 0%, ITMG (24.450) 0% (+Dividen Rp 648).
Track Record Periode 12 - 16 Okt:
BUMI (2900) +4.3%, INDF (3100) +3.2%, JSMR (1800) +3.9%, ASII (33500)-0.6%, ANTM (2600) +1.9%, TLKM (8650) +0.6%, UNVR (11000) 0%, UNTR (15500) +7.7%, SMCB (1550) +7.1%, KLBF (1320) +2.3%, BMRI (4875) +1.03%, BBRI (8050) -0.62%, SMGR (6700) +5.2%, BSDE (640) +12.5%, PGAS (3575) +4.9%, MEDC (3175) 0%, INCO (4150) +2.4%, TINS (2200) +1.1%, SDRA (320) 1.5%.
Track Record Periode 17 Juni - 09 Okt 2009 lainnya bisa dilihat di blog (globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com).
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 25-01-2010
Harga saham PT Pan Brothers Tex Tbk (PBRX) dikabarkan bakal diangkat menuju Rp200 dalam waktu dekat. Adanya kabar mengenai rencana pembelian saham (buyback) saham dan pemecahan nilai saham dengan rasio 1:2 atau 1:3 akan menjadi momentum kenaikan harga.
Harga saham PT Indo Acidatama Tbk (SRSN) berpeluang menuju Rp85-90 dalam jangka pendek. Perseroan disebut-sebut menjadi target akuisisi oleh invetor Abu Dhabi, Uni Emirat Arab. Investor asing itu tertarik karena perseroan adalah produsen ethanol terbesar di Indonesia.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) langsung melorot tajam 35 poin (1,31%) ke level 2.575,963 mengikuti koreksi tajam bursa-bursa utama di kawasan Asia. Tekanan jual masih mewarnai transaksi.IHSG dibuka turun tipis ke level 2.609,731. Namun tekanan jual tampak masih mendominasi pergerakan pasar awal perdagangan pekan ini, IHSG pun langsung melorot tajam ke level 2.575,963.Sebanyak 19 saham naik, 82 saham turun dan 45 saham stagnan.
Bursa-bursa regional Asia tak ada yang luput dari koreksi.
* Indeks Shanghai turun 5,71 poin (0,18%) ke level 3.122,88.
* Indeks Hang Seng turun 187,62 poin (0,91%) ke level 20.538,56.
* Indeks Nikkei 225 turun 127,43 poin (1,2%) ke level 10.463,12.
* Indeks Strait Times turun 9,52 poin (0,34%) ke level 2.810,19.
Nilai tukar rupiah mengawali perdagangan awal pekan ini dengan melemah tipis. Rupiah diprediksi akan terus mengalami tekanan di tengah pasar finansial global yang sedang 'batuk-batuk' Pada perdagangan Senin (25/1/2010), rupiah dibuka melemah tipis ke level 9.370 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan akhir pekan lalu di level 9.340 per dolar AS.
Pelemahan rupiah sudah terjadi sejak pekan lalu dan untuk pertama kalinya kembali menembus level 9.300 per dolar AS. Sejumlah sentimen negatif termasuk kebijakan dari China untuk memperketat kredit membuat mata uang regional lainnya juga bertumbangan.Investor kini cenderung memilih mata uang yang aman meski berimbal hasil rendah, dan menghindari mata uang yang lebih berisiko.
Dirut Danamon Mundur, Saham Anjlok 100 Poin
Dirut Bank Danamon, Sebastian Paredes menyatakan mengundurkan diri dari Bank Danamon.
Volume Penjualan CPO AALI Naik 8,8%
Volume penjualan CPO AALI sampai dengan Desember 2009 mengalami kenaikan sebesar 8,8% dari 970.568 ton menjadi 1.056.235 ton, di mana sekitar 86,1% atau 909.670 ton.
HARGA SAHAM PP SEKITAR RP 550-600, Laba Adhi Karya Naik 47%
Pendapatan PT Adhi Karya Tbk (ADHI) hingga akhir Desember 2009 mencapai Rp 7,6 triliun, tumbuh 15% dibanding 2008 sebesar Rp 6,63 triliun. Adapun laba bersih naik 47,2% dari Rp 81,48 miliar menjadi Rp 120 miliar.
Indonesia Punya Opsi Tak Ikut Bursa Asean
Indonesia memiliki opsi tidak mengikuti sistem perdagangan saham secara elektronik antarbursa negara Asean (Asean Linkage) yang dilaksanakan mulai 2013. Alasannya, Indonesia yang berpenduduk sekitar 230 juta jiwa berpotensi memiliki investor yang jauh lebih besar dibanding negara lain seperti Singapura dan Malaysia.
2012, Ekonomi Dipatok Tumbuh 7%
Dalam Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah (RPJMN) 2010-2014, pemerintah menetapkan target pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 5,5% pada 2010, 7% pada 2012, dan di atas 7% pada 2014. Sedangkan tingkat inflasi ditetapkan 5 plus minus 1% (2010), angka kemiskinan 8-10% (2014),dan penangguran 5-6%.
Economic: Realisasi Program 100 Hari Capai 92%
Tim Ekonomi Kabinet Indonesia Bersatu II mengklaim berhasil menuntaskan 92,16% program kerja 100 harinya,sementara DPR dan kalangan usaha mempertanyakan dasar penilainnya. Menko Perekonomian dalam dokumen tertulis menyebut tingkat kemajuan pencapaian target program 100 hari pemerintah di bidang ekonomi hingga hari ke-75 sudah 92,16%. Dari 19 program kerja dan 53 rencana aksi, sebanyak 12 rencana aksi (23,53%) sudah dituntaskan, sedangkan 35 rencana aksi (68,63%) masih sekitar 75%-100%, dan empat rencana aksi masih di bawah 75%
Agri: Pemerintah Dorong Industri Hilir Kelapa Sawit
Pemerintah berencana mendorong industri hilir kelapa sawit. Indonesia merupakan penyumbang terbesar kebutuhan CPO dengan persentase 50,2% dari total produksi sawit dunia dengan penyumbang devisa bagi negara sebesar US$ 13,79 miliar. Menteri Perindustrian MS. Hidayat mengatakan, pada beberapa tahun ke depan Indonesia akan mengurangi volume ekspor CPO secara bertahap seperti pada tahun 2015 volume yang diekspor hanya sekitar 50% dari total produksi dan pada 2020 menjadi 30% dan sebagaian besar CPO itu dikembangkan menjadi industri hilir.
AKRA: Dapat Utang US$70 Juta
AKRA telah mendapat fasilitas pinjaman senilai US$70 juta dari BMRI pada akhir 2009. BMRI telah setuju untuk mem berikan tiga jenis fasilitas pinjaman, yakni fasilitas LC sebesar US$ 50 juta, fasilitas bank garansi Rp32 miliar, dan treasury line (fasilitas untuk transaksi valas dan derivatif) senilai US$20 juta. Dana tersebut akan gunakan untuk belanja modal di 2010. Sebagian besar dana tersebut digunakan untuk kebutuhan pembiayaan pembangunan tangki penampungan di PT Jakarta Tank Terminal (JTT) serta peningkatan kapasitas sejumlah tangki penampungan milik perseroan.
PTBA: Gagal Peroleh Tambang Maruwai
PTBA dipastikan gagal memperoleh sebagian saham tambang batubara Maruwai milik BHP Billiton, sebabBHP menyisihkan PTBA dari daftar calon pembeli.
ISAT: Siapkan Obligasi Dolar
Manajemen PT Indosat Tbk menyiapkan rencana penerbitan obligasi sebagai salah satu sumber pembiayaan untuk belanja modal dan utang yang jatuh tempo pada Oktober dan November tahun ini. Beberapa eksekutif yang medengar informasi itu mengatakan operator GSM yang dikendalikan oleh Qatar Telecom itu tengah berupaya mempertahankan posisi terbesar kedua di pasar seluler di Indonesia.
HEXA: Capex FY10 US$40 Juta
HEXA menganggarkan belanja modal (capex) sekitar US$35 juta-40 juta. Dana tersebut sebagiam besar akan digunakan untuk membeli alat-alat dan buka cabang.
WIKA: Mulai Garap Bisnis Manufaktur
WIKA berencana membangun dua pabrik mini untuk pengolahan aspal dan bijih besi. Untuk mendukung rencana ekspansi ke bisnis manufaktur tersebut, Wika telah menganggarkan dana investasi di 2010 hingga Rp230 miliar. Rencananya, pabrik pengolahan aspal itu akan dibangun di Pulau Buton, Sulawesi Tenggara. Sedangkan pabrik pengolahan bijih besi akan dibangun di wilayah Tasikmalaya Selatan, Jawa Barat.
FREN: Saham Grup Sinar Mas Terdilusi
Sebanyak 19% saham FREN yang dimiliki oleh unit usaha Grup Sinar Mas, yaitu PT Gerbangmas Tunggal Sejahtera dan pemodal lainnya terdilusi hingga di bawah 5%. Dilusi tersebut terjadi pada pelaksanaan konversi utang menjadi saham yang digelar pada akhir Desember 2009.
BBCA: Dirikan Multifinance, Siapkan Modal Rp100 Miliar
BCA akan mendirikan perusahaan pembiayaan (multifinace) dengan modal awal sebesar Rp100 miliar. Multifinance tersebut didirikan khusus untuk membiayai sepeda motor. Anak perusahaan baru itu didirikan bukan melalui akusisi perusahaan pembiayaan yang sudah ada.
BMRI: Subdebt Mandiri US$ 300 Juta Masuk RKAP 2010
BMRI memastikan rencana penerbitan subdebt senilai US$ 200-300 juta sudah tercatat dalam rencana kerja dan anggaran perusahaan (RKAP) 2010. Mandiri mengharapkan subdebt tersebut bisa diterbitkan dengan tenor di atas tujuh tahun. Namun hingga kini, Bank Mandiri belum menunjuk underwriter untuk penerbitan subdebt tersebut.
IPO: Harga Perdana Saham PP Rp 560
Harga perdana saham PP dipatok di level Rp 560 per saham, 5,67% di atas batas terbawah kisaran harga IPO Rp 530-Rp 900 per saham. Jika harga saham perdana ditetapkan Rp 560 per saham, berarti jumlah dana yang diperoleh BUMN itu mencapai Rp 582,4 miliar.
Laba Bersih BSDE Naik 38,16%
Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk mencatatkan laba bersih sekitar Rp308.738 miliar per 31 Desember 2009 atau naik 38,16% dibanding periode sama sebelumnya sekitar Rp223.461 miliar.
MPPA Dirikan Meadow Asia Company
MPPA melakukan aliansi strategis dengan CVC Capital, sebuah global private equity fund dengan mendirikan perusahaan joint venture yaitu Meadow Asia Company Limited.
Indosat Siapkan Obligasi Dolar
PT Indosat Tbk rencananya akan menerbitkan obligasi untuk belanja modal dan membayar utang yang jatuh tempo pada Oktober dan November tahun ini.
BNBR Perkokoh Fundamental biar Tangguh
Membaiknya kondisi perekonomian nasional dan global membuat manajemen PT Bakrie&Brothers Tbk (BNBR) optimis memenuhi segala kewajiban finansialnya secara tepat waktu.
Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) menghentikan sementara perdagangan (suspensi) saham PT Suryainti Permata Tbk. di seluruh pasar sejak sesi I hari ini lantaran terancam gagal bayar bunga obligasi senilai Rp 50 miliar.
Kementerian Perdagangan menetapkan bea keluar untuk produk Crude Palm Oil (CPO) sebesar 3% per 1 Februari 2010. Bea keluar 3% ini berarti masih sama dengan bea keluar CPO per Januari yang juga sebesar 3%.Menurut keputusan dari Menteri Perdagangan yang dikutip Senin (25/1/2010), penetapan bea keluar 3% ini didasarkan ada Harga Patokan Ekspor yang ditetapkan sebesar US$ 795,84/MT.
Dirut Mandiri: Subdebt Masuk RKAP 2010
PT Bank Mandiri Tbk menyatakan, rencana penerbitan subdebt senilai US$200-300 juta telah dimasukkan dalam Rencana Kerja Anggaran Perusahaan (RKAP) 2010.
Sumber: InvestorDaily, Kontan, Detik.com + Market Flash, Inilah.com
Harga saham PT Indo Acidatama Tbk (SRSN) berpeluang menuju Rp85-90 dalam jangka pendek. Perseroan disebut-sebut menjadi target akuisisi oleh invetor Abu Dhabi, Uni Emirat Arab. Investor asing itu tertarik karena perseroan adalah produsen ethanol terbesar di Indonesia.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) langsung melorot tajam 35 poin (1,31%) ke level 2.575,963 mengikuti koreksi tajam bursa-bursa utama di kawasan Asia. Tekanan jual masih mewarnai transaksi.IHSG dibuka turun tipis ke level 2.609,731. Namun tekanan jual tampak masih mendominasi pergerakan pasar awal perdagangan pekan ini, IHSG pun langsung melorot tajam ke level 2.575,963.Sebanyak 19 saham naik, 82 saham turun dan 45 saham stagnan.
Bursa-bursa regional Asia tak ada yang luput dari koreksi.
* Indeks Shanghai turun 5,71 poin (0,18%) ke level 3.122,88.
* Indeks Hang Seng turun 187,62 poin (0,91%) ke level 20.538,56.
* Indeks Nikkei 225 turun 127,43 poin (1,2%) ke level 10.463,12.
* Indeks Strait Times turun 9,52 poin (0,34%) ke level 2.810,19.
Nilai tukar rupiah mengawali perdagangan awal pekan ini dengan melemah tipis. Rupiah diprediksi akan terus mengalami tekanan di tengah pasar finansial global yang sedang 'batuk-batuk' Pada perdagangan Senin (25/1/2010), rupiah dibuka melemah tipis ke level 9.370 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan akhir pekan lalu di level 9.340 per dolar AS.
Pelemahan rupiah sudah terjadi sejak pekan lalu dan untuk pertama kalinya kembali menembus level 9.300 per dolar AS. Sejumlah sentimen negatif termasuk kebijakan dari China untuk memperketat kredit membuat mata uang regional lainnya juga bertumbangan.Investor kini cenderung memilih mata uang yang aman meski berimbal hasil rendah, dan menghindari mata uang yang lebih berisiko.
Dirut Danamon Mundur, Saham Anjlok 100 Poin
Dirut Bank Danamon, Sebastian Paredes menyatakan mengundurkan diri dari Bank Danamon.
Volume Penjualan CPO AALI Naik 8,8%
Volume penjualan CPO AALI sampai dengan Desember 2009 mengalami kenaikan sebesar 8,8% dari 970.568 ton menjadi 1.056.235 ton, di mana sekitar 86,1% atau 909.670 ton.
HARGA SAHAM PP SEKITAR RP 550-600, Laba Adhi Karya Naik 47%
Pendapatan PT Adhi Karya Tbk (ADHI) hingga akhir Desember 2009 mencapai Rp 7,6 triliun, tumbuh 15% dibanding 2008 sebesar Rp 6,63 triliun. Adapun laba bersih naik 47,2% dari Rp 81,48 miliar menjadi Rp 120 miliar.
Indonesia Punya Opsi Tak Ikut Bursa Asean
Indonesia memiliki opsi tidak mengikuti sistem perdagangan saham secara elektronik antarbursa negara Asean (Asean Linkage) yang dilaksanakan mulai 2013. Alasannya, Indonesia yang berpenduduk sekitar 230 juta jiwa berpotensi memiliki investor yang jauh lebih besar dibanding negara lain seperti Singapura dan Malaysia.
2012, Ekonomi Dipatok Tumbuh 7%
Dalam Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah (RPJMN) 2010-2014, pemerintah menetapkan target pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 5,5% pada 2010, 7% pada 2012, dan di atas 7% pada 2014. Sedangkan tingkat inflasi ditetapkan 5 plus minus 1% (2010), angka kemiskinan 8-10% (2014),dan penangguran 5-6%.
Economic: Realisasi Program 100 Hari Capai 92%
Tim Ekonomi Kabinet Indonesia Bersatu II mengklaim berhasil menuntaskan 92,16% program kerja 100 harinya,sementara DPR dan kalangan usaha mempertanyakan dasar penilainnya. Menko Perekonomian dalam dokumen tertulis menyebut tingkat kemajuan pencapaian target program 100 hari pemerintah di bidang ekonomi hingga hari ke-75 sudah 92,16%. Dari 19 program kerja dan 53 rencana aksi, sebanyak 12 rencana aksi (23,53%) sudah dituntaskan, sedangkan 35 rencana aksi (68,63%) masih sekitar 75%-100%, dan empat rencana aksi masih di bawah 75%
Agri: Pemerintah Dorong Industri Hilir Kelapa Sawit
Pemerintah berencana mendorong industri hilir kelapa sawit. Indonesia merupakan penyumbang terbesar kebutuhan CPO dengan persentase 50,2% dari total produksi sawit dunia dengan penyumbang devisa bagi negara sebesar US$ 13,79 miliar. Menteri Perindustrian MS. Hidayat mengatakan, pada beberapa tahun ke depan Indonesia akan mengurangi volume ekspor CPO secara bertahap seperti pada tahun 2015 volume yang diekspor hanya sekitar 50% dari total produksi dan pada 2020 menjadi 30% dan sebagaian besar CPO itu dikembangkan menjadi industri hilir.
AKRA: Dapat Utang US$70 Juta
AKRA telah mendapat fasilitas pinjaman senilai US$70 juta dari BMRI pada akhir 2009. BMRI telah setuju untuk mem berikan tiga jenis fasilitas pinjaman, yakni fasilitas LC sebesar US$ 50 juta, fasilitas bank garansi Rp32 miliar, dan treasury line (fasilitas untuk transaksi valas dan derivatif) senilai US$20 juta. Dana tersebut akan gunakan untuk belanja modal di 2010. Sebagian besar dana tersebut digunakan untuk kebutuhan pembiayaan pembangunan tangki penampungan di PT Jakarta Tank Terminal (JTT) serta peningkatan kapasitas sejumlah tangki penampungan milik perseroan.
PTBA: Gagal Peroleh Tambang Maruwai
PTBA dipastikan gagal memperoleh sebagian saham tambang batubara Maruwai milik BHP Billiton, sebabBHP menyisihkan PTBA dari daftar calon pembeli.
ISAT: Siapkan Obligasi Dolar
Manajemen PT Indosat Tbk menyiapkan rencana penerbitan obligasi sebagai salah satu sumber pembiayaan untuk belanja modal dan utang yang jatuh tempo pada Oktober dan November tahun ini. Beberapa eksekutif yang medengar informasi itu mengatakan operator GSM yang dikendalikan oleh Qatar Telecom itu tengah berupaya mempertahankan posisi terbesar kedua di pasar seluler di Indonesia.
HEXA: Capex FY10 US$40 Juta
HEXA menganggarkan belanja modal (capex) sekitar US$35 juta-40 juta. Dana tersebut sebagiam besar akan digunakan untuk membeli alat-alat dan buka cabang.
WIKA: Mulai Garap Bisnis Manufaktur
WIKA berencana membangun dua pabrik mini untuk pengolahan aspal dan bijih besi. Untuk mendukung rencana ekspansi ke bisnis manufaktur tersebut, Wika telah menganggarkan dana investasi di 2010 hingga Rp230 miliar. Rencananya, pabrik pengolahan aspal itu akan dibangun di Pulau Buton, Sulawesi Tenggara. Sedangkan pabrik pengolahan bijih besi akan dibangun di wilayah Tasikmalaya Selatan, Jawa Barat.
FREN: Saham Grup Sinar Mas Terdilusi
Sebanyak 19% saham FREN yang dimiliki oleh unit usaha Grup Sinar Mas, yaitu PT Gerbangmas Tunggal Sejahtera dan pemodal lainnya terdilusi hingga di bawah 5%. Dilusi tersebut terjadi pada pelaksanaan konversi utang menjadi saham yang digelar pada akhir Desember 2009.
BBCA: Dirikan Multifinance, Siapkan Modal Rp100 Miliar
BCA akan mendirikan perusahaan pembiayaan (multifinace) dengan modal awal sebesar Rp100 miliar. Multifinance tersebut didirikan khusus untuk membiayai sepeda motor. Anak perusahaan baru itu didirikan bukan melalui akusisi perusahaan pembiayaan yang sudah ada.
BMRI: Subdebt Mandiri US$ 300 Juta Masuk RKAP 2010
BMRI memastikan rencana penerbitan subdebt senilai US$ 200-300 juta sudah tercatat dalam rencana kerja dan anggaran perusahaan (RKAP) 2010. Mandiri mengharapkan subdebt tersebut bisa diterbitkan dengan tenor di atas tujuh tahun. Namun hingga kini, Bank Mandiri belum menunjuk underwriter untuk penerbitan subdebt tersebut.
IPO: Harga Perdana Saham PP Rp 560
Harga perdana saham PP dipatok di level Rp 560 per saham, 5,67% di atas batas terbawah kisaran harga IPO Rp 530-Rp 900 per saham. Jika harga saham perdana ditetapkan Rp 560 per saham, berarti jumlah dana yang diperoleh BUMN itu mencapai Rp 582,4 miliar.
Laba Bersih BSDE Naik 38,16%
Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk mencatatkan laba bersih sekitar Rp308.738 miliar per 31 Desember 2009 atau naik 38,16% dibanding periode sama sebelumnya sekitar Rp223.461 miliar.
MPPA Dirikan Meadow Asia Company
MPPA melakukan aliansi strategis dengan CVC Capital, sebuah global private equity fund dengan mendirikan perusahaan joint venture yaitu Meadow Asia Company Limited.
Indosat Siapkan Obligasi Dolar
PT Indosat Tbk rencananya akan menerbitkan obligasi untuk belanja modal dan membayar utang yang jatuh tempo pada Oktober dan November tahun ini.
BNBR Perkokoh Fundamental biar Tangguh
Membaiknya kondisi perekonomian nasional dan global membuat manajemen PT Bakrie&Brothers Tbk (BNBR) optimis memenuhi segala kewajiban finansialnya secara tepat waktu.
Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) menghentikan sementara perdagangan (suspensi) saham PT Suryainti Permata Tbk. di seluruh pasar sejak sesi I hari ini lantaran terancam gagal bayar bunga obligasi senilai Rp 50 miliar.
Kementerian Perdagangan menetapkan bea keluar untuk produk Crude Palm Oil (CPO) sebesar 3% per 1 Februari 2010. Bea keluar 3% ini berarti masih sama dengan bea keluar CPO per Januari yang juga sebesar 3%.Menurut keputusan dari Menteri Perdagangan yang dikutip Senin (25/1/2010), penetapan bea keluar 3% ini didasarkan ada Harga Patokan Ekspor yang ditetapkan sebesar US$ 795,84/MT.
Dirut Mandiri: Subdebt Masuk RKAP 2010
PT Bank Mandiri Tbk menyatakan, rencana penerbitan subdebt senilai US$200-300 juta telah dimasukkan dalam Rencana Kerja Anggaran Perusahaan (RKAP) 2010.
Sumber: InvestorDaily, Kontan, Detik.com + Market Flash, Inilah.com
Weekly Global Stock Index Analysis
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street diperkirakan mengalami volatilitas yang tinggi pada pekan ini, mengikuti sejumlah isu politik di AS (pidato Presiden Obama di State of Union, pertemuan the Fed, konfirmasi pemberian suara untuk pemilihan kembali Chairman Fed Bernanke) kekhawatiran terhadap prospek kenaikan suku bunga di China dan India di bulan mendatang dan rilisan sejumlah laporan pendapatan emiten dan ekonomi di AS pekan ini. Kondisi tersebut dapat meningkatkan resiko untuk saham dan komoditas global, berpotensi menguatkan mata uang dolar dan yen hingga Treasury AS sebagai safe haven. Meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap isu serangan teroris di Inggris (menaikkan alert hingga severe di akhir pekan lalu) dan pernyataan Osama Bin Laden mengenai rencana terorisme di Detroit, dapat mendorong investor melakukan risk aversion dan menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditas global pada awal pekan ini. Harga komoditas global yang terkoreksi di pekan lalu, diperkirakan mengalami technical rebound berkat perkiraan data GDP Q4 AS (prediksi 4,6% dari Q3 sebesar 2,2%) mengalami kenaikan tertinggi dalam 4 tahun, dimana harga minyak dapat rebound ke $80 ($74 hari Jumat)/emas ke $ 1.130 dan batubara ke $110 ($ 99 di akhir pekan ini). Sementara perkiraan bank sentral AS dan Jepang akan menahan laju suku bunga di level terendah dan mempertahankan pembelian surat berharga dan mortgage pekan ini, diperkirakan masih memberikan daya tarik kepada saham dan komoditas hingga akhir bulan ini. Rilisan earning di AS pecan ini: Amgen, Texas Instruments (Senin); Johnson & Johnson, DuPont, Travelers,Verizon, Yahoo (Tuesday); Boeing, Caterpillar, United Technologies, General Dynamics, Qualcomm (Rabu); 3M, Procter & Gamble, Ford, Nokia, Motorola (Kamis); Microsoft, Amazon.com (Jumat). Data ekonomi: Existing Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, FOMC Meeting (26-27 Januari), GDP Q4 AS, U Michigan.
Universal Broker Indonesia Newsletter Vol 371; 25-01
Indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street diperkirakan mengalami volatilitas yang tinggi pada pekan ini, mengikuti sejumlah isu politik di AS (pidato Presiden Obama di State of Union, pertemuan the Fed, konfirmasi pemberian suara untuk pemilihan kembali Chairman Fed Bernanke) kekhawatiran terhadap prospek kenaikan suku bunga di China dan India di bulan mendatang dan rilisan sejumlah laporan pendapatan emiten dan ekonomi di AS pekan ini. Kondisi tersebut dapat meningkatkan resiko untuk saham dan komoditas global, berpotensi menguatkan mata uang dolar dan yen hingga Treasury AS sebagai safe haven. Meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap isu serangan teroris di Inggris (menaikkan alert hingga severe di akhir pekan lalu) dan pernyataan Osama Bin Laden mengenai rencana terorisme di Detroit, dapat mendorong investor melakukan risk aversion dan menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditas global pada awal pekan ini. Harga komoditas global yang terkoreksi di pekan lalu, diperkirakan mengalami technical rebound berkat perkiraan data GDP Q4 AS (prediksi 4,6% dari Q3 sebesar 2,2%) mengalami kenaikan tertinggi dalam 4 tahun, dimana harga minyak dapat rebound ke $80 ($74 hari Jumat)/emas ke $ 1.130 dan batubara ke $110 ($ 99 di akhir pekan ini). Sementara perkiraan bank sentral AS dan Jepang akan menahan laju suku bunga di level terendah dan mempertahankan pembelian surat berharga dan mortgage pekan ini, diperkirakan masih memberikan daya tarik kepada saham dan komoditas hingga akhir bulan ini. Rilisan earning di AS pecan ini: Amgen, Texas Instruments (Senin); Johnson & Johnson, DuPont, Travelers,Verizon, Yahoo (Tuesday); Boeing, Caterpillar, United Technologies, General Dynamics, Qualcomm (Rabu); 3M, Procter & Gamble, Ford, Nokia, Motorola (Kamis); Microsoft, Amazon.com (Jumat). Data ekonomi: Existing Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, FOMC Meeting (26-27 Januari), GDP Q4 AS, U Michigan.
Universal Broker Indonesia Newsletter Vol 371; 25-01
Update Daily Investment News
Wall Street Week Ahead: Politics Overshadow Profits
By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor
Stocks could be in for a rough ride in the week ahead as a focus on political risk overshadows what is clearly an improving profit picture. About a quarter of the S&P 500 companies report, but the emphasis will be on what goes on in Washington. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a very tight confirmation vote later in the week, and President Obama delivers his State of the Union address Wednesday night. There is also a Fed meeting and several major economic reports, including fresh housing data and fourth quarter GDP.
So far, nearly 20 percent of the S&P 500 has reported and 78 percent of those companies have beaten estimates, according to Thomson Reuters. Yet, stocks ignored the positives and sold off in the worst selling spree since the market bottomed in early March.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35022639
China Stocks’ Decline Signals Sell to DMG: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Investors should “cash out” of China’s stocks after the Shanghai Composite Index dipped below its 100-day moving average, Singapore-based DMG & Partners Securities Pte. said. The measure is in a “corrective” fourth leg of a five- wave cycle, and traders should “cash out from their respective portfolios before the ship sinks even deeper,” DMG analyst James Lim wrote in a report.The benchmark index declined to as low as 3,062.63 on Jan. 22, below its 100-day moving average, before closing at 3,128.59. The gauge has lost 4.6 percent this year on concern the government will withdraw stimulus to prevent the world’s fastest-growing major economy from overheating. The gauge traded 0.1 percent lower at 3,126.28 at 10:31 a.m. local time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a540PCkhiLrI
Hang Seng Index May Post Deeper Decline: Technical Analysis
correction” if it falls below its 200-day moving average, according to analysts.The gauge, which surged 52 percent in 2009, has fallen 7.2 percent since China’s central bank unexpectedly raised banks’ reserve ratio by 50 basis points on Jan. 12. The index has slumped through its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, closing at 20,726.18 on Jan. 22, some 810 points from the 200-day average of 19,915.59. The measure fell 1.4 percent to 20,454.79 as of 10:11 a.m. local time today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3HXAkgfoYbU
Euro May Rebound 3% on Support, Momentum: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may rebound more than 3 percent from an almost six-month low after finding support near $1.40, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said, citing trading patterns.Europe’s single currency may climb to $1.4550 over the next few weeks after yesterday falling as low as $1.4029, the least since July 30, the bank said. The $1.40 level is also near the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the euro’s rise from its 2008 low of $1.2330 to last year’s high of $1.5144.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9E7ksoe6Wec
Franc to Drop on Trend Stall, Intervention: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Swiss franc will fall versus the euro once it gets to the “low 1.46s” on signs the strengthening trend is ending and as the risk rises that the central bank may intervene to curb the currency’s advance, according to MIG Bank SA. The TD Sequential, which seeks to anticipate “trend exhaustion,” and the TD Combo indicator, which traces a security’s price movements, have given a so-called 13 count buy countdown, suggesting the strengthening move is overextended, said Paul Day, an analyst at MIG Bank in Neuchatel, Switzerland. The franc may weaken to 1.5138 per euro once the Swiss National Bank steps in to limit its strength, Day said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCbEVeVLOPko
Commodity Price Index May Drop 9% by March: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- A measure of commodity prices slipped below its 40-day moving average yesterday, which may signal a decline of as much as 9 percent by March, said Paul Hare, a technical analyst with the Linn Group Inc. The Continuous Commodity Futures Price Index of 17 raw materials including oil, gold and corn dropped below its moving average of about 484 yesterday for the first time in six weeks, before settling at 486.56. If the index closes below its 40-day average this week, it will slip further to 443 by late February or early March, Hare said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUitLaKdcRPY
Why a Company's Stock Falls Even After Positive Earnings
By: Reuters
While a majority of companies have reported better-than-expected profits in the current earnings season, a few key firms have missed their "whisper number," a metric that is similar but considerably tougher to beat.Missing the whisper number has been a factor in the market's inability to maintain its recent positive momentum, analysts say.Whisper numbers, according to www.WhisperNumber.com, the financial research firm that publishes the data, are unofficial estimates for corporate earnings. They are based on such metrics as fundamental research, past performance and "gut feel," and the numbers are often higher than analyst consensus estimates, making them harder to surpass.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35017793
Halftime Report: Signs Of A Top?
By: Lee Brodie Producer Halftime Report
The Fast Money traders are closely watching the action in the S&P 500 after the major market index turned negative for the first time this year.How should you be trading? The short-term momentum has flipped from bullish to bearish and that’s the first sign of a top, explains Bill Strazzullo of Bell Curve. Now I’d be watching for a second sign.If you go back to the March lows the biggest accumulation of long positions takes place around 1090. If we close below 1080 take it as another signal that we’ve put in a top, Strazzullo says.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35010941
Correction This Week — If Dow Breaks This Number: Strategist
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, jumped on Friday. What does the rise mean for the markets going forward? Brent Wilsey, president of Wilsey Asset Management, and Alan Valdes, vice president of Kabrik Trading, shared their best investment ideas.“We’ve had a major run-up, it’s about time to have some pullback,” Wilsey told CNBC.“But I love this volatility because we sold some companies in December when they were higher, now we’re seeing things come down a little bit.”Wilsey said he hopes for a buying opportunity based on volatility levels.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35011548
ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's fall from 1163 extended further to as low as 1083 last week and the development suggests that whole decline from 1127.5 is resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1075.2 support first. Break will confirm the bearish view and target 100% projection of 1227.5 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7 next. On the upside, above 1117.8 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1163 resistance and bring fall resumption.In the bigger picture, gold has made a medium term top at 1227.5 and correction from there is likely still in progress to 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level. However, we'd expect such correction to be contained there at around 1000 psychological level and bring resumption of the whole up trend from 2008 low of 681. A break above 1163 will indicate that such correction has completed and will turn outlook bullish for another high above 1227.5.In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 83.95 extended further to as low as 74.01 last week. The break of 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 argues that whole rise from 68.59 is completed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to retest 68.59 support next. On the upside, above 76.68 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 79.16 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, short term risk will remain on the downside. In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. ON the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes. In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor
Stocks could be in for a rough ride in the week ahead as a focus on political risk overshadows what is clearly an improving profit picture. About a quarter of the S&P 500 companies report, but the emphasis will be on what goes on in Washington. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a very tight confirmation vote later in the week, and President Obama delivers his State of the Union address Wednesday night. There is also a Fed meeting and several major economic reports, including fresh housing data and fourth quarter GDP.
So far, nearly 20 percent of the S&P 500 has reported and 78 percent of those companies have beaten estimates, according to Thomson Reuters. Yet, stocks ignored the positives and sold off in the worst selling spree since the market bottomed in early March.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35022639
China Stocks’ Decline Signals Sell to DMG: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Investors should “cash out” of China’s stocks after the Shanghai Composite Index dipped below its 100-day moving average, Singapore-based DMG & Partners Securities Pte. said. The measure is in a “corrective” fourth leg of a five- wave cycle, and traders should “cash out from their respective portfolios before the ship sinks even deeper,” DMG analyst James Lim wrote in a report.The benchmark index declined to as low as 3,062.63 on Jan. 22, below its 100-day moving average, before closing at 3,128.59. The gauge has lost 4.6 percent this year on concern the government will withdraw stimulus to prevent the world’s fastest-growing major economy from overheating. The gauge traded 0.1 percent lower at 3,126.28 at 10:31 a.m. local time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a540PCkhiLrI
Hang Seng Index May Post Deeper Decline: Technical Analysis
correction” if it falls below its 200-day moving average, according to analysts.The gauge, which surged 52 percent in 2009, has fallen 7.2 percent since China’s central bank unexpectedly raised banks’ reserve ratio by 50 basis points on Jan. 12. The index has slumped through its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, closing at 20,726.18 on Jan. 22, some 810 points from the 200-day average of 19,915.59. The measure fell 1.4 percent to 20,454.79 as of 10:11 a.m. local time today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3HXAkgfoYbU
Euro May Rebound 3% on Support, Momentum: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may rebound more than 3 percent from an almost six-month low after finding support near $1.40, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said, citing trading patterns.Europe’s single currency may climb to $1.4550 over the next few weeks after yesterday falling as low as $1.4029, the least since July 30, the bank said. The $1.40 level is also near the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the euro’s rise from its 2008 low of $1.2330 to last year’s high of $1.5144.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9E7ksoe6Wec
Franc to Drop on Trend Stall, Intervention: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Swiss franc will fall versus the euro once it gets to the “low 1.46s” on signs the strengthening trend is ending and as the risk rises that the central bank may intervene to curb the currency’s advance, according to MIG Bank SA. The TD Sequential, which seeks to anticipate “trend exhaustion,” and the TD Combo indicator, which traces a security’s price movements, have given a so-called 13 count buy countdown, suggesting the strengthening move is overextended, said Paul Day, an analyst at MIG Bank in Neuchatel, Switzerland. The franc may weaken to 1.5138 per euro once the Swiss National Bank steps in to limit its strength, Day said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCbEVeVLOPko
Commodity Price Index May Drop 9% by March: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- A measure of commodity prices slipped below its 40-day moving average yesterday, which may signal a decline of as much as 9 percent by March, said Paul Hare, a technical analyst with the Linn Group Inc. The Continuous Commodity Futures Price Index of 17 raw materials including oil, gold and corn dropped below its moving average of about 484 yesterday for the first time in six weeks, before settling at 486.56. If the index closes below its 40-day average this week, it will slip further to 443 by late February or early March, Hare said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUitLaKdcRPY
Why a Company's Stock Falls Even After Positive Earnings
By: Reuters
While a majority of companies have reported better-than-expected profits in the current earnings season, a few key firms have missed their "whisper number," a metric that is similar but considerably tougher to beat.Missing the whisper number has been a factor in the market's inability to maintain its recent positive momentum, analysts say.Whisper numbers, according to www.WhisperNumber.com, the financial research firm that publishes the data, are unofficial estimates for corporate earnings. They are based on such metrics as fundamental research, past performance and "gut feel," and the numbers are often higher than analyst consensus estimates, making them harder to surpass.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35017793
Halftime Report: Signs Of A Top?
By: Lee Brodie Producer Halftime Report
The Fast Money traders are closely watching the action in the S&P 500 after the major market index turned negative for the first time this year.How should you be trading? The short-term momentum has flipped from bullish to bearish and that’s the first sign of a top, explains Bill Strazzullo of Bell Curve. Now I’d be watching for a second sign.If you go back to the March lows the biggest accumulation of long positions takes place around 1090. If we close below 1080 take it as another signal that we’ve put in a top, Strazzullo says.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35010941
Correction This Week — If Dow Breaks This Number: Strategist
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, jumped on Friday. What does the rise mean for the markets going forward? Brent Wilsey, president of Wilsey Asset Management, and Alan Valdes, vice president of Kabrik Trading, shared their best investment ideas.“We’ve had a major run-up, it’s about time to have some pullback,” Wilsey told CNBC.“But I love this volatility because we sold some companies in December when they were higher, now we’re seeing things come down a little bit.”Wilsey said he hopes for a buying opportunity based on volatility levels.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35011548
ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's fall from 1163 extended further to as low as 1083 last week and the development suggests that whole decline from 1127.5 is resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1075.2 support first. Break will confirm the bearish view and target 100% projection of 1227.5 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7 next. On the upside, above 1117.8 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1163 resistance and bring fall resumption.In the bigger picture, gold has made a medium term top at 1227.5 and correction from there is likely still in progress to 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level. However, we'd expect such correction to be contained there at around 1000 psychological level and bring resumption of the whole up trend from 2008 low of 681. A break above 1163 will indicate that such correction has completed and will turn outlook bullish for another high above 1227.5.In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 83.95 extended further to as low as 74.01 last week. The break of 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 argues that whole rise from 68.59 is completed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to retest 68.59 support next. On the upside, above 76.68 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 79.16 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, short term risk will remain on the downside. In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. ON the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes. In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
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