ANTM/ASII/BHIT/DOID/MNCN: Are These Still Worth to Collect???

02/03 MNCN (250) Buy area on circles, risk on the box, on the way to higher level med-term

01/03: ASII (36.750)

01/03: ANTM (2075); On the way final correction wave v/C, right now ANTM at wave c/4 in C. Trend is weak on descending triangle, target circles to better opportunity to collect, risk is on the box.

01/03 BHIT (650) If BHIT couldn't closed above channel top at 720 on weekly basis, BHIT could move lower to make correction for wave 4, that should show that the impulse wave 3 has finished. So better out of the market soon as market prepare for 4 correction wave. Zoom out charts for detail.

01/03: DOID (1.520) Daily & weekly chart was showing a weak trend, is already in wave correction iii/C that should be reach low 1.350 if break target 1150/1100 (risk is on the box), buy breakout 1.630 & 1.710 target 1.890.

 











By: Ezydeal
Gallery Saham Mania (GSM). Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com

Universal Broker Indonesia Securities Weekly Equity Newsletter Vol. 395

Market Review
Kombinasi antara faktor negatif dari dalam dan luar negeri mendorong IHSG ditutup melemah dan investor asing masih membukukan net sell unuk pekan ke 4 di pekan lalu. Kekhawatiran terhadap krisis keuangan di Eropa setelah lembaga pemeringkat Moodys dan S&P 500 mengancam akan menurunkan rating kredit Yunani jika dalam 30 hari ini tidak dapat menurunkan defisit anggaran, lemahnya sejumlah data ekonomi dari AS (Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales) hingga IFO Jerman memicu kekhawatiran pemulihan ekonomi global tidak sekuat perkiraan pasar, mendorong investor memburu dolar AS yang menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi global (minyak terkoreksi ke $77 dari level tertinggi $80,57 di awal pekan lalu). Dari dalam negeri kekhawatiran investor terhadap hasil akhir pansus Bank Century dirilis 2 Maret 2010, dimana sebelumnya pandangan pansus Bank Century menunjukkan adanya indikasi tindak pidana korupsi menyeret sejumlah nama pejabat bank sentral dan pemerintah, diikuti isu penunggakan pajak oleh PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) dan anak usahanya, perpecahan koalisi partai Demokrat dan Golkar yang dapat menganggu kinerja pemerintahan SBY-Boediono, sempat picu aksi penjualan saham di pasar domestik. Laporan private placement PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) di harga Rp 600 (dari penutupan harga Rp 780 pada 24 Februari) mendorong aksi panik penjualan oleh investor, ikut membebani kinerja IHSG di akhir pekan menjelang liburan hari Maulud Nabi Muhammad SAW. Meski laju penurunan IHSG dapat dibatasi oleh sejumlah laporan keuangan emiten per kuartal 4 2009 di pekan lalu, diantaranya menunjukkan kinerja yang lebih baik dari periode sebelumnya dan testimony setengah tahunan Chairman Fed Bernanke di hadapan Kongress bahwa suku bunga yang rendah masih diperlukan untuk mendorong pertumbuhan. IHSG terkoreksi tipis 5,346poin (-0,2%), di posisi 2549,03. Investor asing bukukan net sell Rp 1,3944 triliun miliar pekan
lalu, net sell Rp 2,418 triliun (15-19 Feb) dannet sellRp 1,594 miliarpekan sebelumnya.

Indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific meningkat di pekan lalu, mendorong indeks MSCI Asia Pasific mengalami kenaikan tertinggi dalam 7 pekan karena meredanya kekhawatiran Federal Reserve akan menaikkan suku bunga untuk menahan laju inflasi. Chairman Fed Ben Bernanke dalam testimony di hadapan Kongress mengatakan suku bunga yang rendah diperlukan untuk menopang pertumbuhan. Indeks MSCI menguat 2,4% menjadi 118,07. Indeks telah terkoreksi turun 6,9% dari level tertinggi 17bulan pada 15 Januari lalu. Indeks saham Hang Seng Hong Kong menguat 3,6% di pekan lalu, karena laporan pertumbuhan HK tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar. Nikkei 225 average hanya menguat 0,1% menjadi 10.126,03 karena laporan ekspor dan output industri Jepang naik di bulan lalu. Indeks komposit Shanghai naik 1,1%, setelah berakhirnya liburan Imlek, karena pemerintah mengatakan akan melanjutkan support untuk industry dan permintaan global.         
     
IHSG Outlook
Kinerja IHSG di pekan ini, masih terbebani oleh kekhawatiran terhadap hasil akhir Pansus Bank Century yang akan dirilis 2 Maret 2010 dapat menyeret sejumlah nama pejabat berwenang dari mantan pembuat kebijakan moneter hingga pemerintahan sebagai indikasi tindak pidana korupsi, dimana dapat menganggu kinerja pemerintahan dan mendorong isu reshuffle Kabinet Indonesia Bersatu II (KIB II) dan isu penunggakan pajak oleh PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) dan anak usahanya (dirut PT KPC telah dicekal pekan lalu) yang masih membebani kinerja saham grup Bakrie, dapat membebani kinerja IHSG di pekan ini. Sementara kekhawatiran terhadap kenaikan suku bunga dari China hingga India dan mahalnya valuasi saham regional, ikut membebani kinerja IHSG. Meski potensi penurunan IHSG diperkirakan terbatas, berkat prediksi inflasi RI bulan lalu akan naik 0,3%/0,4% dan BI Rate akan tertahan di 6,5% awal pekan ini, musim earning saham lokal per Q4 2009, meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap isu suku bunga AS paska testimony Fed Bernanke, kenaikan harga komoditas dan laporan bantuan Negara Uni Eropa kepada Yunani sebesar 34 miliar euro.

Global  Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street diperkirakan dapat melanjutkan trend kenaikan di pekan ini, berkat laporan positif dari detail bantuan sejumlah Negara di Eropa sebesar 34 miliar euro kepada Yunani dan meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap kenaikan suku bunga AS setelah data inflasi dan sejumlah data ekonomi AS tercatat dibawah ekspektasi pasar yang mendukung pernyataan Fed Bernanke di pekan lalu. Meski di pekan lalu kinerja Wall Street (menguat 2,5% di bulan lalu) yang sedikit melemah gagal menyamai kinerja indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific yang mengalami kenaikan, dari kejutan penurunan data consumer confidence AS bulan lalu dan Durable Goods bulan Januari memberikan signal pemulihan ekonomi mungkin telah kehilangan momentum, dapat membatasi laju kenaikan indeks saham global pekan ini. Fokus pasar pada pekan ini mengarah kepada perkembangan krisis di Yunani (rencana penjualan obligasi pemerintah Yunani) setelah mendapatkan ancaman dari Moodys dan S&P untuk rating kredit Yunani jika gagal menurunkan deficit anggaran dalam program 30 hari hingga data tenaga kerja AS (prediksi payroll merosot ke -50K, unemployment naik ke 9,8%), bilamana hasilnya tercatat di bawah ekspektasi pasar dapat meningkatkan kekhawatiran terhadap resesi double dip dan menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi (trend harga minyak bullish; target $ 84/90)

Oil Weekly: Trend bullish, Stochastic crossup buy, MACD bullish

 












Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan signal negative dari pola candle doji star(indikasi bearish reversal yang lemah), bertahandibawah 10-week MA (2.562),  stochastic crossingdown, MACD bullish, ADX terkoreksi (momentum kenaikan lemah), dan gagal ditutup diatas trendline resistance di 2.569, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas. IHSG mendapatkan support di 2.462 (channel support), jika ditutup diatas  2.574 (fibo 76.3%) & 2.5659 (channel top) dapat mengarahkan IHSG ke menguat ke 2.619/2.6 Hitungan EW: pola kenaikan IHSGini merupakan pola wave koreksi minor iiidalam 3/5,untuk target 2.584/.623, selama support 2431 tidak tembus.Sell 2.580 (0 poin). Sell on rally 2.600/2.619 target 2.480 stop 2.635. 
Resistance: 2625.96/2602.18/2587.66/2563.88. PP  2554.62
Support    : 2525.58/2516.32/2507.06/2483.28
PT Universal Broker Indonesia Securities (TF) UBI Newsletter Vol 395
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com

Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 01-03

Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat inflasi bulan Februari 2010 mencapai 0,3%. Dengan begitu besaran inflasi kumulatif Januari-Februari 2010 1,14%, sementara inflasi year on year pada Februari 2010 adalah 3,81%.

PT Sugi Samapersada Tbk (SUGI) oleh beberapa pelaku pasar bakal mengganti bisnis inti dari distributor suku cadang menjadi minyak dan gas atau migas.Perseroan dikabarkan berniat mengakuisisi Elnusa Tristrar Ramba Tld, pemilik 60% saham Blok Ramba. Bahkan, salah satu petinggi Grup Bhakti ikut bernegosiasi dalam pengambilalihan blok migas itu. Harga SUGI pun berpeluang menuju Rp200.Sementara itu, pada penutupan perdagangan bursa pekan lalu, harga saham SUGI ditutup turun Rp8 ke Rp152.

Harga saham PT Citatah Industri Marmet Tbk (CTTH) bakal diangkat oleh konsorsxium broker ke kisaran Rp90-100 dalam jangka pendek. Perseroan disebut-sebut akan bekerja saham dengan perusahan Asashi Glass Co dari Jepang dengan membentuk perusahaan patungan. Perseroan juga akan memperluas pemasaran produknya di luar negeri.Pada penutupan perdagangan bursa pekan llau saham Citatah ditutup naik Rp6 ke Rp69.

Rupiah diperdagangkan di Rp 9.310 terhadap dolar, sementara IHSG dibuka menguat ke 2.565.437 dari penutupan hari Kamis (25/02). Pasar menunggu data inflasi RI bulan Februari(01/03) diperkirakan 0.3-0.4% m/m, BI Rate (04/03) tetap mempertahankan suku bunga 6.50% dan pansus angket Bank Century (02-03), dapat memberikan petunjuk kepada pasar pada pekan ini dan isu dalam negeri.

ARAH INVESTASI SEPEKAN: Indeks Masih Berfluktuasi, Harga SUN Naik
Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) kemungkinan bergerak berfluktuasi sepekan ini (volatile). Sedangkan rata-rata harga SUN berpotensi naik sekitar 25-50 bps.

Inovisi Anggarkan Capex Rp 50 miliar
PT Inovisi Infracom Tbk (INVF) menganggarkan belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) sepanjang 2010 senilai Rp 50 miliar. Dana akan digunakan untuk akuisisi perusahaan di Singapura.

Hasil Akhir Kasus Century
Pansus Angket Century sudah mengakhiri tugasnya dengan membawa pro-kontra. Pihak yang pro menilai Pansus menjalankan tugasnya dengan cukup baik meski aliran dana Bank Century belum bisa terkuak sepenuhnya akibat keterbatasan data. Sedangkan pihak yang kontra menyatakan, Pansus hanya membuang waktu,  mengeruhkan suasana politik yang sudah bagus, dan merusak iklim investasi.  Dalam era demokrasi, kehadiran Pansus bukan hanya tidak masalah, melainkan sebuah tuntutan. Jika ada kasus yang diduga merugikan  kepentingan publik, DPR RI wajib melaksanakan fungsinya sebagai pengawas dengan menggunakan haknya, antara lain hak angket atau hak menyelidiki.

Saham AKR Corporindo (AKRA) diperkirakan menuju harga Rp1.580. Angka ini telah memperhitungkan 16,7% delusi dari rights issue kedua. Dikutip dari hasil riset Danareksa kemarin.

Intiland Rilis Rights Issue Rp2,07 M
PT Intiland Development Tbk (DILD) segera melangsungkan rights issue sekitar Rp2,073 miliar dengan menawarkan 2,073 miliar lembar saham seharga Rp500 per lembar.

ASII Akan Gelar RUPSLB
PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) akan menggelar Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Luar Biasa (RUPSLB) pada Senin (1/3) untuk meminta persetujuan pengangkatan direksi.

Telkomsel Jual Menara ke Induk US$ 1 Miliar
Asal tahu saja, rencana pengelolaan menara milik Telkomsel kepada Mitratel mengemuka sejak muncul regulasi tentang menara bersama.

Laba Bersih ANTM Anjlok 59%
Untungnya, penurunan kinerja ANTM masih terselamatkan oleh pendapatan  dari penjualan logam mulia.

PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) mencetak laba bersih sebesar Rp 10,04 triliun di tahun 2009, naik 9% dibanding tahun 2008 sebesar Rp 9,19 triliun. Angka ini merupakan laba tertinggi yang pernah dicapai perseroan."Angka ini merupakan rekor tertinggi sepanjang sejarah perusahaan," kata Pelaksana Tugas Direktur Utama Astra International Prijono Sugiarto dalam siaran persnya, Kamis (25/2/2010).Pendapatan ASII di tahun 2009 sebesar Rp 98,52 triliun, naik tipis 1,5% dari tahun 2008 sebesar Rp 97,06 triliun. ASII Ajukan Dividen Rp 830 Angka ini naik 46% ketimbang dividen 2008, yaitu Rp 570.

 PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantation Tbk (UNSP) melaporkan mencatat pertumbuhan pendapatan sepanjang 2009 turun 20% dari Rp2,93 triliun menjadi Rp2,33 triliun.   Sepi Peminat, Rights Issue UNSP Hanya Laku 70% Danatama Makmur selaku pembeli siaga akan mengeksekusi seluruh rights issue yang tersisa.

Para pemilik saham PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) dikabarkan melepaskan 20% sahamnya pada harga murah di level Rp 600 per saham. Obral saham tersebut memukul jatuh harga saham BSDE sebesar 20,51%.Menurut berita yang beredar, Kamis (25/2/2010),

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) berhasil mencetak pertumbuhan laba bersih sebesar 42,83% di 2009. Kenaikan didorong oleh peningkatan pendapatan dan efisiensi pos beban operasional.Demikian disampaikan dalam keterbukaan informasi Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Kamis (25/2/2010).

Di tengah lesunya perekonomian, PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) mencetak laba bersih Rp 3,82 triliun pada tahun 2009, naik 43% dibandingkan laba bersih tahun 2008 yang sebesar Rp 2,66 triliun.

Penggabungan nilai nominal saham (reverse stock) PT Multipolar Corporation Tbk (MLPL) akhirnya disetujui pemegang saham dalam Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Luar Biasa (RUPSLB) yang terselenggara hari ini.Demikian disampaikan Director & Chief Financial Office MLPL Reynold Ong seusai penyelenggaraan RUPSLB di hotel Aryaduta Tugu Tani Jakarta Kamis (25/2/2010).

PT Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR), salah satu anak perusahaan Astra mencatatkan laba bersih sebesar Rp67 miliar atau meningkat 7% dari Rp62,49 miliar pada 2009.

PT Bank Permata Tbk mencetak laba bersih Rp 486 miliar pada tahun 2009, atau hanya naik tipis 5% dibandingkan laba bersih tahun 2008 yang sebesar Rp 461 miliar.

FORU Bidik Laba Bersih Tumbuh 15%
PT Fortune Indonesia Tbk (FORU) menargetkan pertumbuhan laba bersih pada 2010 naik 15% menjadi Rp10,20 miliar dibandingkan laba bersih 2009 Rp6,8 miliar.

Minat investor pada investasi emas PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) diestimasikan masih tetap tinggi. Ditambah dengan akuisisi tambang emas Cibaliung yang selesai pada Juli ini.

PT Latinusa Tbk (NIKL) memperkirakan mencatatkan laba bersih sekitar Rp42 miliar dan pendapatan kurang lebih sekitar Rp1,2 triliun pada 2009.

Economic: Jamsostek Incar 7,5% Saham Garuda Indonesia
PT Jamsostek berpeluang memiliki sekitar 7,5% aham PT Garuda Indonesia. Jamsostek menyiapkan dana Rp900 miliar untuk berpartisipasi dalam IPO saham maskapai penerbangan nasional tersebut. Garuda Indonesia berencana melepas 25%saham kepada publik pada 3Q10. Perseroan menargetkan perolehan dana sekitar Rp3 triliun. Dengan demikian, nilai pembelian 20-30% saham IPO atau setara 5-7,5% saham Garuda mencapai Rp900 miliar. Dana tersebut sekitar 5% dari investasi saham Jamsostek sepanjang tahun ini, yang totalnya diproyeksikan mencapai Rp18 triliun.

Economic: Anggaran Subsidi 2010 Melonjak Rp 44 Triliun
Menteri Keuangan mengungkapkan pemerintah akan menambah jumlah subsidi sebesar Rp 44 triliun pada anggaran 2010. Tambahan subsidi itu terdiri atas subsidi bahan bakar minyak (BBM) naik Rp 20 triliun, listrik Rp 16,7 triliun, pupuk Rp 4,4 triliun dan pengan Rp 2,8 triliun.

Automotive: Pasar Mobil Bakal Naik 54%
Pasar mobil domestik pada 1Q10 diperkirakan melonjak 54% menjadi 154.831 unit dibanding periode sama 2009 sebanyak 100.257 unit, menyusul membaiknya kondisi makro ekonomi. Selain faktor itu, konsumen diduga mempercepat pembelian mobil pada awal tahun untuk menghindari kenaikan pajak mobil. Penjualan wholesale Toyota per 20 Februari tercatat 22 ribu unit, naik dari 20.800 pada Januari 2010.

ANTM: Laba Bersih Terpangkas 59%
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) membukukan penurunan laba bersih sepanjang Rp2009 sebesar 59,17% menjadi Rp559,25 miliar dibandingkan 2008 senilai Rp1,37 triliun. Penurunan penjualan dan kenaikan beban pokok penjualan mengakibatkan laba bersih terpangkas. Penjualan konsolidasi tahun lalu turun 9,49% dari Rp9,59 triliun manjadi Rp8,69 triliun. Penjualan komoditas nikel berkontribusi hingga Rp3,81 triliun terhadap penjualan konsolidasi perseroan. Sedangkan penjualan komoditas emas menyumbang Rp4,78 triliun dan penjualan logam lainnya mencapai Rp89,63 miliar. Tahun ini, Antam menargetkan produksi emas mencapai 2.850 kg dan volume penjualan diperkirakan mencapai 7.980 kg, termasuk dari trading komoditas ini.

ASII: Astra Bagi Dividen Rp4,53 T Pada Mei
PT Astra International Tbk mengusulkan untuk membagikan dividen total Rp1.120 per saham pada Mei, naik 29% dari dividen 2008, menyusul perolehan laba bersih Rp10,04 T dan kembali mencetak rekor. Pelaksana Tugas Presiden Direktur Astra mengatakan manajemen akan mengajukan final dividen Rp830 per saham kepada pemegang saham saat RUPS pada Mei. Untuk tahun buku 2008, dividen final sebesar Rp570 per saham.

BBCA: Bakal bagikan dividen 50% dari laba bersih
BCA Finance berencana membagikan dividen atas laba bersihnya tahun 2009. Menurut rencana, porsi keuntungan yang akan dibagikan untuk para pemegang saham itu mencapai 50% dari laba bersih tahun lalu.

ADMF: Adira Insurance Cetak Kenaikan Laba 37%
Sepanjang 2009, Adira Insurance membukukan kenaikan laba hingga 37% mejadi Rp205,69 miliar. Kenaikan laba tahun lalu ditopang oleh peningkatan perolehan premi Adira Insurance yang mencapai Rp742,06 miliar. Pendapatan premi ini naik 14% dibandingkan pendapatan premi 2008 sebesar Rp650,38 miliar.

BNGA: Tambah 94 Cabang
PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk tahun ini berencana membuka 94 cabang baru. Perseroan mengincar dana pihak ketiga (DPK) minimal Rp4,7 triliun atau Rp30-50 miliar per cabang pada tahun pertama cabang-cabag itu beroperasi.

Saham ISAT Direkomendasi 'Trading Sell'
Telah patahnya trend naik, membawa saham ISAT dalam trading range yang berada di antara 4.950-5.350 dengan terjadinya kenaikan volume dalam dua hari terakhir.

Sumber: Bloomberg, Investorindonesia, kontan, inilah.com, detikfinance.com (Market Flash)
globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com

BSDE: The Sample of Technical Analysis Which Failed To Rebound

19/02: BSDE (810) It's fell to 600 because:
1) Failed to break trendline resistance at 19/24-02,
2) Failed to breakout trendline on Stochastic,
3) Closed daily below 50% Fibo 940-630 at 785 on 24/02,
4) Breakout channel support since August 2008 & closed below 820,
5) Stochastic was still in a bearish condition.
Conclusion buy on weakness on 510 (low August 2009/138,2% FR 940-630)/440 (161,8%) area which is the final correction wave 4 (right now BSDE at wave iii/a in 4). Wait 4 further signal when wave c 4 is finished. Better trading buy 600 target 650/680, risk 570. Disclaimer on. 

Update Daily Investment News

1057 GMT [Dow Jones] GBP/USD just dipped below 1.50 for the first time in 9 months but Barclays Capital still sees more pain ahead. The bank says in the absence of a recovery above 1.5425 the downtrend should extend to 1.4855 and 1.4685 in March. GBP/USD now at 1.5005.

1100 GMT [Dow Jones] More GBP/USD stops triggered on the break of 1.50 take the rate to a fresh 9 month low of 1.4982. Next major support comes in at 1.4850, so expect more stops if that level folds.

1031 GMT [Dow Jones] Sterling is taking a hammering across the board Monday. GBP/USD falls one cent on the day to a fresh 9-month low of 1.5076. EUR/GBP hits a 2-month high of 0.9029, GBP/AUD is at a fresh 25-year low of 1.6780, GBP/JPY an 11-month low of 134.60. Pressure on sterling is coming from the latest election polls which put Labour and the Conservatives almost neck and neck with the latter's lead now said to be at just 2 points, negative M&A flows involving UK's Pru and AIG and the ever present threat of yet more BOE QE.

0921 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares end +0.2% at 2554.674 in moderate volume, helped by gains in most consumer-related stocks after government announces benign inflation data for February, which could support central bank to keep key rate unchanged at 6.5%. "Gains across Asian markets also helped trigger bargain buying despite a selloff in mining blue chips," says trader at Valbury Securities; tips shares to consolidate tomorrow. Car maker Astra (ASII.JK) ends up 1.7% at IDR36,950 after reporting strong 2009 earnings, Bank Danamon (BDMN.JK) up 3.5% at IDR5,150 on bargain buying. Meanwhile, coal miner Bumi (BUMI.JK) down 3.3% at IDR2,175 and heavyweight Telkom (TLKM.JK) down 1.8% at IDR8,150.

0900 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR lower at 9,270 vs 9,355 late Thursday (market closed Friday) as release of benign February inflation attracts fund inflows into local bonds, dealers say. "The dollar could head toward IDR9,250 tomorrow if there's no surprises from the offshore front," dealer says; tips 9,300 resistance; On-year inflation up tad in February to 3.81% from 3.72% in January, but still below Bank Indonesia's year-end target of between 4%-6%, indicating rate hikes aren't imminent.(

0820 GMT [Dow Jones] UBS says it remains "comfortable" with its 3-month EUR/USD forecast at 1.30 despite talk of a Greek bailout. The bank points to the latest CFTC data showing that EUR/USD shorts rose for the sixth consecutive week and that changes have preceded currency moves over the last six months. "The data suggest that the stabilization in the euro witnessed last week is likely to be temporary, and that further falls could well be in store," it says.

0818 GMT [Dow Jones] According to the latest data available CME futures traders went even shorter of the euro last week with net shorts rising to a record for the third week running to stand at $12B, notes RBS. However, the bank says in a week that contained the threat of an S&P downgrade, strikes in Greece, unsupportive comments from politicians and a broadening debate over the foundations of the currency union the euro could not build momentum on the downside. RBS says take all this into account and the fact that on the charts EUR/USD made a double-bottom at 1.3440 it sees risk for a stop-loss run higher that could take the rate back to 1.40. EUR/USD now at 1.3627.
 
0441 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia's on-year inflation rises in February but below market forecasts, indicating rate hikes aren't imminent. CPI +3.81% on year, +0.30% on month vs forecast +3.97%, +0.46%; January's +3.72%, +0.84%. Rice prices continue to support CPI as harvest volumes low; but milder on-month CPI rise indicates contribution from rice prices is waning. Also of interest is core inflation, which strips out government-controlled fuel prices, volatile food costs; on-year core inflation slows sharply to 3.88% vs January's 4.43%, indicating base effect from fuel price cuts in January last year played a part in headline figure. Market will expect Bank Indonesia to keep key rate at 6.50% Thursday.

Greece Now, U.K. Next as Scots Investors Ready for Pound Plunge
(Bloomberg) -- While the eyes of the world focus on Greece’s debt crisis, investors in Edinburgh are busy preparing for the U.K. to be next.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVDvzOH9wSks&pos=7

0538 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia's rising imports could potentially weaken IDR, market participants say; Indonesia's January trade surplus down to $2.03 billion in January from $3.00 billion in December, due to strong recovery in imports, while key exports, such as commodities, slid amid global economic downturn, Central Statistics Agency says. February surplus slightly below $2.21 billion median forecast from a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 10 regional economists. Imports will continue to improve in coming months as investment here likely to recover, hence to put pressures on trade balance and IDR, says Standard Chartered economist Eric Sugandi. Bank Danamon tips year-end USD/IDR target at 9,500 vs pair last at 9,275. Still, FX dealers say capital inflows expected to offer IDR some support this year.

0452 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI +1.9% at 21,000.12 midday; gains likely supported by short-covering activities after short sales high at 7.9%-8.0% of market total Thursday-Friday, says Jamie Coutts at BGC Securities. "Short covering is triggering a bigger-than-expected rally in Hong Kong. We're seeing a lot of actions in the options market with clients taking out protection and buying volatility." Tips 21,000 -- critical support level broken in January -- acting as key level again. Adds, China banks strong, also likely due to short-covering, but Coutts doesn't think it's time to buy sector; says rallies should be treated with some caution until downtrend technically broken. ICBC (1398.HK) +2.9% at HK$5.65, China Construction Bank (0939.HK) +3.2% at HK$6.06, Bank of China (3988.HK) +3.4% at HK$3.90. Volume brisk at HK$36.87 billion.

0425 GMT [Dow Jones] As AUD pares gains late on murky Greece bailout details, RBA expectations, rate decision will drive next 24 hours. Going into tomorrow's decision, Richard Grace, chief currency strategist for Commonwealth Bank of Australia, says RBA more likely to hurt AUD than help it. "There is a very significant risk RBA doesn't raise rates and that will hurt the Aussie if they do remain on hold. Even if they hike, I don't expect the Aussie dollar to go to cyclical highs," says Grace. AUD/USD recently at 0.8976, off from session high just above 0.9000.

0416 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei up 0.7% at 10,194.42, with sentiment helped by gains in Asian shares as well as stability in USD/JPY (now at 89.13 vs 89.10 morning stock market close), says Japanese brokerage manager. Notes China PMI data (widely monitored in Japan), fell to 55.8 in February from 57.4 in Jan,, is being priced in. "The Tokyo market is on the positive side about this," he says, adding figure still represents 11th consecutive month above 50 reading, showing manufacturing activity has continued to expand, albeit at slower pace. Other Asian markets mostly up as well. (Sub-50 reading indicates contraction in manufacturing activity.) Prominent 'China-related' stocks higher; construction equipment maker Komatsu (6301.TO) up 0.6% at Y1,795 vs Y1,782 at morning close. Nippon Steel (5401.TO) up 0.6% at Y334 vs Y333 at morning close. 31/33 Topix subindexes higher, with banks leading (+1.7%).

0413 GMT [Dow Jones] China could resume CNY appreciation sooner rather later to manage hot money inflows and as exports rebound, says Credit Agricole. "In our view, appreciation pressure and hot money inflows would be even stronger should China not move at all on the CNY," firm says, adds experience of 2005 revaluation suggests CNY appreciation pressure may stabilize if PBOC makes clear any further appreciation will be gradual. "A realistic scenario is that China could implement a move similar to that made in 2005, i.e., an initial one-off revaluation, followed by a gradual appreciation vs USD." Revaluation can take place end-March or during 2Q, firm says; eying USD/CNY at 6.50 end-2010 vs 6.8262 earlier today. EUR/USD may present uncertainty to CNY rise timing, firm says. "Chinese policymakers may want to see EUR stabilizing vs USD before resuming the CNY appreciation."


Germany, France Mull 30 Billion-Euro Aid for Greece, WSJ Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNZsupn6TDik&pos=6

Week Ahead: Economic Reports, Greek Bond Offering Loom

By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor

U.S. jobs data and developments in the Greek financial crisis could be important catalysts for stocks in the week ahead.

http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=6833542981102286398

Buffett Says Housing Woes to Ease Next Year, Barring Explosions

(Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett said the U.S. residential real estate slump will end by about 2011, predicting that’s how long it will take demand for homes to catch up with the supply.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arF9ymnFl4xg

Payrolls Probably Declined in February: U.S. Economy Preview

(Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. probably cut more jobs in February and the unemployment rate increased, indicating the labor market in the world’s largest economy is still struggling to rebound, economists said before a government report this week.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDXvIiQuLD8E

Wolter Says China, India, Indonesia Stocks `Overpriced': Video

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aW.Bsy33Fi5Q

Indonesia Bank Row May Hinder Cut in $11 Billion Fuel Subsidies

(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia may delay raising energy prices as a dispute over a 2008 bank bailout divides President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s coalition, PT Bank Danamon said, undermining efforts to rein in almost $11 billion in subsidies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5wk_YzsBXU0

Double-Dip Recession Fears Creep Back Into the Market

By: Jeff Cox  CNBC.com 

A miserable week of economic news has rekindled a big question in the market: Is the economy headed for a double-dip recession?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35584141

Foreign Stocks Still Offering A Good Buying Opportunity

By: Jennifer Woods, Special to CNBC.com

International stocks had a bang-up year in 2009, and while 2010 will hardly match that, strategists say plenty of opportunity remains for investors looking abroad.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35601205

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index May Extend Drop: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index may decline toward the 19,000-point level should it break below its 200-day moving average, BGC Partners said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aemf36pf4xIg

Oil May Reach $81 Next Week, Passes ‘Cloud’: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil prices may rise to $81 a barrel within the next week, according to indicators on a Japanese charting method called Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, or “one- glance cloud chart,” said Mitsubishi Corp.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQnUTBTMQQEc

Euro’s Drop Versus Asia Currencies May End: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- The euro’s slump against Asian currencies may soon reverse as a technical indicator suggests the 16-nation currency is due for a rally, according to ING Groep NV.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDYpRa9a0YG0

Kiwi May Reach 3-Month Low on ‘Dead Cross’: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- New Zealand’s currency may fall to a three-month low against the yen after it created a “dead- cross” formation, Ueda Harlow Ltd. said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alJxRx2xCXWs

U.S. 30-, 10-Year Securities Near ‘Hurdle’: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. longer-term securities may post “potentially significant” gains if they close below key yield levels they’re approaching, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, which cited technical indicators.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a5sEDErO37JE

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold 

Despite dipping to as low as 1088.5, gold's strong rebound from there suggests that retreat from 1131.5 is completed and turned bias neutral. Focus now turns back to 1131.5 resistance. Break there will indicate that rise from 1044.5 is resuming and will also strongly suggest that whole correction from 1227.5 is finished with three waves down to 1044.5 already. In such case, stronger rally should be seen to 1163 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, below 1088.5 support will shift favors back to the case that another low below 1044.5 would be seen before correction from 1227.5 concludes.In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise fro 931.3 only. The question now is on whether such correction is finished after meeting 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1044.4. Strong break of 1163 resistance will indicate that the long term up trend is likely resuming for another high above 1227.5. On the downside, even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support at 1000 psychological level to conclude the correction and bring up trend resumption. In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil turned into consolidation after edging high to 80.51 initially last week and turned and dipped to as low as 77.05. Nevertheless, with 75.69 resistance turned support intact, rise from 69.05 should still be in progress. Indeed, Friday's strong rebound indicates that consolidation from 80.51 might have completed already. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside this week. Break of 80.51 will confirm rise resumption and should target a retest on 83.95 high next. On the downside, in case of another fall, outlook will remain bullish as long as 75.69 support holds. However, break of 75.69 will argue that rebound from 69.50 has completed and will turn focus back to this low.In the bigger picture, crude oil was supported above mentioned 68.59 key support and thus, there was no confirmation of medium term reversal. The strong rebound from 72.43 dampened our bearish view and argue that medium term rise from 33.2 might not be over yet. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.