0927 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares end tad higher, with gains in banking stocks keeping the main index in positive territory, dealers say; main index closes +0.1% at 2669.608; gainers beat decliners 101 to 76, 6.8 billion shares changed hands worth at IDR3.8 trillion. "I think the market will remain in a consolidation phase Wednesday amid a lack of fresh leads," says local fund manager; tips 2650-2681 range for index Wednesday (market closed Tuesday for Balinese New Year). Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK) ends +1.1% at IDR4,800, Bank Central Asia (BBCA.JK) +2% at IDR5,200, Bank Negara (BBNI.JK) +0.5% at IDR1,970; help to lift index from earlier losses; Bumi (BUMI.JK) ends down 1.0% at IDR2,500, Bukit Asam (PTBA.JK) down 1.3% at IDR15,800, Adaro (ADRO.JK) down 0.5% at IDR1,870 as investors take profit on coal stocks. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0846 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR gives up earlier gains, now steady as market lacks fresh factors ahead of public holiday tomorrow, dealers say; pair at 9,165 vs 9,160 late Friday, off 9,182 intraday high. "The dollar's general trend is bearish lately, so any rally in USD/IDR will be taken as an opportunity (by investors) to sell it back," a dealer says; tips 9,135-9,180 band Wednesday, barring any surprise in USD movement vs major rivals Tuesday. (I-Made.Sentana@dowjones.com)
0305 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia may get another ratings upgrade in six to nine months, Barclays Capital says, after S&P Friday upgraded its ratings to BB from BB-. Says Indonesia compares favorably with peers in terms of various credit metrics including GDP, forex reserves, banking sector strength among others. "Indonesia is currently rated one notch below IG (investment grade) at Fitch, and we believe there is a high probability that the agency will upgrade to IG within the next 12-18 months." Moody's has rating of Ba2, equal to S&P's rating, which 2 notches below investment grade. "Given that the fundamentals of the economy are favorable, we believe that Moody's and S&P will play catch up with Fitch, perhaps aggressively. We would not be surprised by another one-notch upgrade in the next six to nine months."
0229 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei down 0.2% at 10,732.73 midday after opening higher as investors taking profits from recent gains, market analysts say. "The market is overheated, so investors want to lock in profits before the BOJ's policy board meeting this week," says Japanese brokerage manager, adding that there are hopes for monetary easing, so a sharp fall in stocks is unlikely. Says Nikkei may trade between 10,650-10,850 today. 17/33 subsectors lower, profit-taking hitting recent gainers; Advantest (6857.TO) down 1.2% at Y2,188, Sony (6758.TO) down 0.3% at Y3,370, Fast Retailing (9983.TO) down 0.9% at Y16,610. Smart grid shares up on Nikkei report that China's rising demand presenting business opportunities for Japanese providers of transmission technology; Fuji Electric (6504.TO) up 6.3% at Y252. 0508 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei June 225 futures flat at 10,680 after peaking at 10,750 earlier in morning session; futures may find support at 10,600, market analysts say. "Foreign buying has slowed down after the settlement of March futures and options Friday," says Yumi Nishimura, market analyst at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets. That said, buying won't likely end as hopes for BOJ monetary easing supporting sentiment, she says. Another market analyst notes that for today, losses in Asian market as well as lower U.S. futures hitting mood as well.
0230 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI down 0.8% at 21,038.81 tracking A-shares' fall on lingering worries over potential China tightening, but still within tight 21,000-21,300 band its been in recently; volume remains subdued at HK$7.11 billion. Over longer term, market headed up, according to Citigroup; believes ex-Japan Asia currently in phase 2 of distinct "the recovery, the grind, then parabolic" phases, during which emphasis shifts to earnings revisions, P/E, margins; "as phase two matures, price momentum and earnings revisions become key drivers." Most blue chips lower but only one drops more than 2%; Shenhua (1088.HK) down 2.2% at HK$33.95 on lower-than-expected FY09 results, but Cnooc (0883.HK) bucks trend, +0.5% at HK$12.94 on news of US$3.1 billion buy of 50% stake in Brida. (robert.li@dowjones.com)
0448 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi down 1.0% at 1646.70 in light volume in line with China's stock weakness amid renewed worries over fresh monetary tightening measures from Beijing, says Kwak Joong-bo at Hana Daetoo Securities; adds, "It's (also) about the time for the Kospi to take a breather after it gained nearly 100 points from the previous low (around 1580) marked on February 26." Puts immediate floor at 1640. Financial stocks weak on profit-taking with KB Financial (105560.SE) down 2.3% at KRW50,800, Daewoo Securities (006800.SE) down 2.0% at KRW19,750. But autos outperforming broad market on weakening KRW vs USD today, with Kia Motors (000270.SE) +1.9% at KRW21,500. Asiana Airlines (020560.SE) still up 3.7% at KRW3,835 after Korea Development Bank denied local media report KDB planned to push for capital reduction at Asiana in return for injection of KRW120 billion of fresh funds. (soo-kyung.seo@dowjones.com)
0434 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore shares reverse earlier gains, tracking broad regional pullback amid lingering China tightening worries, wariness ahead of U.S. Fed meet tomorrow. STI down 0.1% at 2,877.13 midday vs morning high of 2,898.28 (+0.6%) with support tipped at last week's low of 2,820. Broad market volume subdued; market breadth now negative with losers outnumbering gainers nearly 2 to 1. Cosco Corp. (F83.SG) off 0.8% at S$1.22, extends Friday's drop as looming STI exit, order book woes continue to weigh. Other big blue chip fallers include Wilmar (F34.SG) down 1.6% at S$6.65, SembMarine (S51.SG) down 1.2% at S$3.99. But DBS Vickers holds view that current STI rebound has tad further to run; "short-term traders who had participated in the current technical rebound should do so a little while longer till STI hits near 2,930 but should look to lock in gains beyond that." (kirsty.green@dowjones.com)
0156 GMT [Dow Jones] China shares down as concerns over further monetary tightening linger after rampant talk of policy move failed to materialize at weekend. Shanghai Composite Index last down 0.7% at 2992.01, support tipped at 2950. "Just because a rate hike didn't happen over the weekend doesn't mean it's off the table. The uncertainty about its timing is going to pressure sentiment in the coming weeks," says Ci Weixiang from Guotai Junan Securities. Among actives, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (60000.SH) down 0.6% at CNY20.91, China Vanke(00002.SZ) down 0.9% at CNY 9.28. Shenzhen Composite Index last down 0.8% at 1138.24. (esther.fung@dowjones.com)
0455 GMT [Dow Jones] S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% at 4792.2, hits 6-day low of 4784.2 on concern over how Wall Street might react to Moody's warning that a rise in the proportion of U.S. revenue that the U.S. government spends servicing its debt over the next 10 years would see the U.S. government's Aaa rating come under pressure. Traders also mention weekend comments from China's Premier Wen Jiabao that the world could still fall into a double-dip recession. "These are definitely things that concern the market," says senior trader at major broker. S&P 500 futures are down about 0.5% and China's Shanghai Composite is down about 1.2%, but S&P/ASX 200 volume is very light volume, suggesting there's no great conviction to the selling today. (david.rogers1@dowjones.com)
0224 GMT [Dow Jones] JPMorgan says upside surprise on China February CPI last week (+2.7% on year), together with stronger-than-expected expansion in exports (+45.7% on year) could intensify market concerns about a near-term interest rate hike. Tips near-term RRR hike possible as China central bank will likely continue to focus on liquidity, credit management. "However, as CPI inflation is set to move above the 3% target level, and with exports tracking a solid recovery, the way has been paved for an initial 27bp (rate) hike in early April, which would likely be followed by two more hikes of equal magnitude by year-end." (chester.yung@dowjones.com)
1013 GMT [Dow Jones] While EUR/USD rebound is being supported by positive news coming out of Europe on Greece, there is little in the way of positive fundamental news supporting sterling's current rally says BNP Paribas. The pair is now at the day's low of 1.5037. The bank says a break below 1.4990 would be a renewed bearish signal and trigger a decline towards the recent 1.4875 and 1.4785 lows. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0208 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD, EUR/JPY falling as some short-term investors sell on weak Nikkei tone, which usually negative for EUR, also on hedge-related EUR selling ahead of Greece's submission of progress report on fiscal improvement to EU, which due by tomorrow, says senior sales dealer at major bank in Tokyo. But adds not many players selling, meaning a few investors' selling activity being magnified in a thinly-traded market. EUR/USD may fall to 1.3700 vs last 1.3737; EUR/JPY may fall to 124.00 vs last 124.60. (takashi.mochizuki@dowjones.com)
0452 GMT [Dow Jones] RBA's minutes due for release tomorrow could be more dovish than some expect, weighing on AUD/USD, says Barclays Capital FX Strategist David Forrester. "We think that the RBA minutes, released this Tuesday, will point to the bar being higher for the economic data triggering further rate hikes, which may come across (as) dovish and weigh on the AUD." Adds while RBA was more bullish in its assessment of local economy when it hiked 2 weeks ago, "the minutes will likely point to the policy rate now being not far below neutral and that further rate hikes will have to be judged carefully." AUD/USD now 0.9139. (enda.curran@dowjones.com)
0554 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY may head lower this week if U.S. Federal Open Market Committee doesn't drop stated intent to keep interest rates low for "extended period" at Tuesday's meeting, says Hideaki Inoue, senior FX dealer at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking. Some traders have been betting Fed will hint at an end to ultra-easy policy but Inoue says "I don't see that the economic data are yet strong enough to suggest that they would" drop 'extended period' wording. While Fed's discount rate hike in mid February pushed pair briefly to recent high at 92.16, statements from Fed Chairman Bernanke, other officials since have tempered expectations for any broad tightening. That has been one reason USD/JPY has stayed below 92.00 since falling back from that high, analysts say. Inoue expects pair to be biased lower in 89.00-91.00 range for week vs last 90.62.(andrew.monahan@dowjones.com)
0222 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold higher at $1,103.60/oz, up $2.10 vs NY close, rising on physical buying interest from general sources, says Commodity Broking Services managing director Jonathan Barratt. Gold's inverse correlation with USD not very strong at present, gold last week falling despite weaker USD as investor liquidate safe haven positions across the board. Doesn't expect any surprises from FOMC meeting this week. Adds $1,100 level psychological support for now, but gold hasn't found direction for now. (elisabeth.behrmann@dowjones.com)
Week Ahead: Stocks Could Stay Stalled Until After Fed Meeting
By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor
Stocks may have a hard time finding traction ahead of the Fed's Tuesday meeting, but the trend for the market is clearly higher, strategists say.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35845357
Ichimoku Chart Signals Gain in Nikkei 225: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average will likely climb toward 12,000 as the index rises above an “Ichimoku Cloud,” which indicates levels of support and resistance, and because economic fundamentals have been improving, according to MDAM Asset Management Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYsezdDB7RDs
Thailand, Turkey Stocks Upgraded at Morgan Stanley
(Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Thailand, the Czech Republic and Turkey were upgraded at Morgan Stanley, which lowered its rating on four emerging markets (downgraded shares in Indonesia, Peru and Egypt to “underweight” and lowered his rating on Poland to “equal-weight").
Iron Ore Prices May Rise 65% on China Demand, JPMorgan Says
(Bloomberg) -- Contract iron ore prices may rise 65 percent this year amid stronger-than-expected demand from steel mills in China, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=acuBopIakDYM
Record Advance in S&P 500 Futures Shows Confidence in Economy
(Bloomberg) -- The longest-ever gain in futures linked to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index shows growing investor confidence in the U.S. economy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJrxozH8Bx6s
S&P 500 Stocks Biggest Weekly Changes in Analyst Target Price
(Bloomberg) -- The following tables show the biggest increases and decreases in analysts’ target price, according to Bloomberg data, for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index from March 5.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ac89vjJN.P10
Buy Chinese Stocks Ahead of Rally, UBS Wealth Says
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong may gain as much as 20 percent this year and investors should take advantage of any “corrections” to add to holdings, UBS AG’s wealth management unit said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=an6H27VR5gLQ
Easing China ‘Fear’ Gauges Are Bullish for Stocks
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks may rise as a gauge of implied volatility shows the spread between China and U.S. shares keeping near a three-year low, according to Macro Risk Advisors LLC, which advises institutions on equity derivatives.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aB5Ml4lzGUsM
Oil Traders Increase Price-Rise Bets for Fourth Week, CFTC Says
(Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long positions, or bets that oil prices will rise, for a fourth week, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aq3v2kPjdqn8
Futures Traders Boost Bets on Euro Drop Versus Dollar to Record
(Bloomberg) -- Futures traders placed the biggest bets on record that the euro will decline against the dollar even as European officials mulled guaranteed debt sales to help Greece survive a budget crisis that may threaten the monetary union.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLVP12pZfU6Q
Japan Is Increasingly Likely to Sell Yen, Morgan Stanley Says
(Bloomberg) -- Japan is increasingly likely to intervene in foreign-exchange markets to stop the yen from rising, according to Morgan Stanley, citing its own model.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1W.L5tbk.Ck
Goldman Sachs Says Buy Euro as Greek Concern Eases
(Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy the euro against the dollar, betting it may rise to $1.45, as sentiment toward Greece improves, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=acekPS5k7IJE
JPMorgan Top Hedge Fund, Pensions & Investments Says
(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., the New York- based bank run by Jamie Dimon, is the world’s biggest hedge-fund firm by assets, according to Pensions & Investments magazine.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aigM38nhYiP0
Why Selling This Market Makes 'Very Little Sense'
By: JeeYeon Park CNBC News Associate
The current market "is very much based on fundamentals," said Paul Schulte, head of multi-strategy research at Nomura International. He told CNBC what he's watching "as we move into Monday."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35834029
Gallery Saham Mania: globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
