0919 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesian shares end slightly lower on profit taking after surprisingly strong rally yesterday; but gains in select bank stocks help limit losses, dealers say; main index ends down 0.7% at 2737.242, with 120 decliners, 87 gainers; volume robust at 6.8 billion shares valued at IDR5.7 trillion. "Profit taking today was warranted, and may continue Friday," dealer with foreign securities firm says; market bellwether Telkom (TLKM.JK) ends down 2.9% at IDR8,350, Astra International (ASII.JK) down 1.6% at IDR40.200, Bank Central Asia (BBCA.JK) down 6.0% at IDR5,450 after rising 11% yesterday; meanwhile state-run Bank Mandiri +5.1% at IDR5,200 on expectation its rights issue will be approved by parliament, Bank Negara (BBNI.JK) +1.8% at IDR290, Bank Tabungan (BBTN.JK) +8.3% at IDR1,170; 2690-2760 range tipped for Friday. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0849 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR maintains rebound in late session, may creep up Friday as more profit taking expected ahead of weekend, dealers say; pair now at 9,120 vs 9,110 late yesterday, but off 9,130 intraday high. "Any level above IDR9,150 will be a good point to sell back the dollar," a dealer says; adds underlying sentiment still positive on Indonesia's high-yielding assets after Fed pledged to keep interest rates low for extended period; 9,110-9,150 range tipped Friday. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0706 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI down 0.4% at 21,307.15 vs 0.2% gain midday, as investors take cautious approach following news Greece may soon seek financial help from IMF; volume remains modest at HK$37.44 billion. "The Hang Seng Index enjoyed a good spell since early February, and the strong momentum did surprise us on the upside," says CIMB. Expects index to stay in 21,000-21,430 range. Says uptrend channel remains intact until it falls below its 50-day moving average (20,889). After releasing FY09 results, China Mobile (0941.HK) down 0.6% at HK$75.05. while China Overseas (0688.HK) down 2.4% at HK$16.76. (susanna.tai@dowjones.com)
STerling gains after better than expected Public Finances
0831 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD remains in an upside corrective mode but needs to stay above 1.3628 to allow a test of key resistance between 1.3845 and 1.3894, says Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. Above 1.39 would open the topside to 1.4090 and possibly 1.4295-1.4344. However, failure of 1.3628 support should be enough to alleviate immediate upside pressure and open downside risk toward 1.3530 ahead of 1.3445 and 1.3405. EUR/USD now at 1.3678 from the day's low 1.3648. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0927 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY remains choppy within its 89.63-91.09 range and, while the former holds, marginal gains must be allowed for, says MIG Bank's Howard Friend. However a move below 89.63, which Friend favors, will signal an end to the current corrective bounce and open the downside toward the 88.14 and 87.09 lows. USD/JPY now at 90.02 from the day's low of 89.75. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0920 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY slips to a fresh one-week low of 89.75 weighed by EUR/JPY and to a lesser extent GBP/JPY cross selling. EUR/JPY trades at 122.65 from the day's high of 124.26 while GBP/JPY dips under 137.00 from a high of around 138.50. For USD/JPY next support comes in at 89.60 ahead of 89.00. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0912 GMT [Dow Jones] The USD is higher as suggestions that Greece may yet seek aid from the IMF sent the EUR reeling. The latest warning by a Greek official indicates that once again the Greek debt problem is far from being resolved. The GBP, which had been rebounding, is back under selling pressure again. The EUR is down at $1.3665 while the GBP is down at $1.5264. The USD, however, has fallen to Y89.94 as investors seek safe havens. nick.hastings@dowjones.com)
0854 GMT [Dow Jones] Swiss National Bank's failure to counter the ongoing slide in EUR/CHF suggests it may be preparing to abandon its strategy of countering a franc appreciation through intervention, says Commerzbank. "The SNB had previously defended the 1.46-per-euro level, but has recently allowed a further appreciation of the franc," says currency strategist You-Na Park. EUR/CHF is at 1.4463 by 0850 GMT. (neil.maclucas@dowjones.com)
0551 GMT [Dow Jones/Nikkei] Nikkei June futures down 0.8 at 10,690, just off intraday low, after suddenly dropping from near break-even level just after 0500 GMT; Tokyo-based trader says suddenly weakening EUR/JPY (now 123.33) following rekindling of Greek's debt worries likely cause of pessimism. In cash market, Kenichiro Hirano, operating officer at Tachibana Securities says, "The observation is growing that foreign investors who have been supporting the market until now have stopped buying." Mamoru Nakajo, manager at Phoenix Securities says technical resistance for futures equivalent to March settlement price of 10,808. Futures short-term moving average 10,700.(christopher.cushing@dowjones.com)
0443 GMT [Dow Jones] Daiwa Institute of Research says given its upside breakout through March options settlement level (last Friday), Nikkei should enjoy a further rally. Notes tertiary industry activity index had better-than-expected results, and March business conditions diffusion index also improved significantly. Notes (as of yesterday), DJIA continued to rise for 6 straight trading days (1st time since end-2009. "Although this type of short-term strength in share prices could signal a mid-term acceleration in the market, the market may experience a slowdown in the near term." Adds, technicals, such as 25-day Relative Strength Index, suggest rally may lose steam near term. Also notes, despite a lack of surprises in the latest US/Europe monetary policy meetings, Greek and US bonds have fared relatively well. (bradford.frischkorn@dowjones.com)
0454 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi down 0.2% at 1680.08 in light volume, off early high of 1687.70 as losses in shipbuilders, some banks offsetting gains in techs, airlines. "The index is taking a breather after yesterday's sharp rise, in tandem with Asian peers," says Lee Kyoung-min at Woori Investment & Securities; "the market is resilient. The 20-day moving average has crossed above the 120-day moving average, indicating the market is creating a (firm) uptrend." Expects Kospi to drift near 1680 rest of session. Hyundai Heavy (009540.SE) down 2.2% at KRW227,500, Shinhan Financial (055550.SE) down 1.9% at KRW43,750. Samsung Electronics (005930.SE) +0.6% at KRW803,000, Korean Air (003490.SE) +1.6% at KRW64,800. (soo-kyung.seo@dowjones.com)
0442 GMT [Dow Jones] China shares slightly up midday in thin volume, on continued bargain hunting, as monetary-tightening concerns wane. Shanghai Composite Index +0.1% at 3054.56, faces psychological resistance at 3100. "Trading volume is picking up, and the blue chips are seeing more demand, but it will take a lot more funds entering the market to give it a bigger boost," says Zhang Qi from Haitong Securities. Some property developers higher on bargain-hunting after losses in recent sessions; brokerages also rising, buoyed by impending launch of stock index futures. Ping An Insurance (601318.SH) +0.1% at CNY48.35, Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019.SH) +0.1% at CNY8.28. Shenzhen Composite Index +0.4% at 1175.60. (esther.fung@dowjones.com)
0437 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore shares reverse earlier drop, tracking firmer regional markets; STI +0.2% at 2,923.84 midday vs morning low of 2,907.04 (down 0.4%) with resistance tipped at current 2010 high of 2,947. But DBS Vickers says STI may struggle to rise much further; "while STI could continue to edge a little higher, the low trading activity, the market rise that has not been broad based and the index now closer to 14.5X FY10 earnings suggest that there may not be much impetus to move far above 2,930." Bank heavyweights among best blue chip performers as their recent lackluster run attracts bargain hunting; DBS (D05.SG) +1.2% at S$14.62, UOB (U11.SG) +1.2% at S$19.20. But Genting Singapore (G13.SG) down 1.0% at S$0.955 as opening of Universal Studios theme park fails to lift stock amid worries over stretched valuation. (kirsty.green@dowjones.com)
0624 GMT [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley says BOJ's decision to expand monetary policy gives market an impression it is "somewhat behind the curve" in achieving showing its proactive stance to fight against critical problems: 1) deflation, 2) rise in real interest rates and 3) strong yen. "As long as strong yen pressure remains, the BoJ will likely continue to face strong pressure to take further step from both the markets and the Government." Anti-strong yen stance should be stock market supportive, especially vis-a-vis currency market-sensitive exporter shares as FY-end books close for many firms at end-month. (bradford.frischkorn@dowjones.com)
0218 GMT [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley chief economist Takehiro Sato says house still doesn't rule out chance of 5-10bp rate cut by BOJ in April-June quarter, although few other analysts have raised this as possibility; "although we are notably out of consensus on the above, in order for term rates and, most of all, the tibor to fall, we believe that a rate cut would be a more effective means than measures to encourage a decline in term rates." To reinforce effort to lower term-fund rates, BOJ decided yesterday to raise amount of 3-month fixed-rate operation to Y20 trillion from previous Y10 trillion. Sato says rate cut would be possible if FX, stock markets destabilize before Upper House election in July. USD/JPY now around 90.28, Nikkei ends morning session 0.2% lower at 10,823.94. Chances of BOJ rate cuts likely to be small, as BOJ officials, including Governor Shirakawa, have said current 0.1% policy rate already "virtually zero."(megumi.fujikawa@dowjones.com)
0501 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold staying steady at slightly lower levels, trading at $1,124.10/oz, down $1.00 vs NY close. Gold stuck in range, lacks direction, could take some cues from U.S. CPI, weekly jobless data later today, says Investec head of trading Darren Heathcote. "We've had an awful lot of volume in many markets for some time due to the sovereign debt issues surrounding Greece. We might be in for some consolidation now," says Heathcote. Adds, gold's bounce from $1,100 level this week positive, strengthens overall bullish conviction. (elisabeth.behrmann@dowjones.com)
0426 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/JPY, EUR/USD down slightly as hedge funds, Japan institutional players sell EUR, taking cues from lower Nikkei (down 0.3%), Tokyo dealers say. Still, FX market relatively quiet in Asian trade as "more and more Japanese players, such as banks, don't want to tilt their positions radically" with Japan's March 31 fiscal year-end approaching, says Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. head of FX forward trading group Satoshi Okagawa. Tips EUR/JPY support at 123.40 vs last 123.82; EUR/USD floor at 1.3700 vs 1.3724. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
0613 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/JPY, EUR/USD fall, with riskier assets hit broadly on news Greece may soon seek financial help from IMF; adds to worries IMF may push Greece to take severe austerity measures, prompting overseas hedge funds, Japan interbank dealers to sell EUR, Tokyo dealer says. "Players who had became optimistic on the Greek fiscal problem are selling back" EUR. May be some concern over Greece facing tough medicine from IMF, including further spending cuts, and also at signs eurozone stepping back from helping Greece, showing weakness within that grouping. Dealer adds EUR/JPY may fall to 122.50 vs 123.22 now, EUR/USD to 1.3600 vs 1.3673. "If the IMF plays a major role in the Greek rescue, it will likely require the country to take very stringent" steps, says Mitsuru Sahara, senior dealer at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ; "this would drag down the Greek economy more, if at least temporarily, than the (if it had the) E.U.'s help, pushing the euro lower." Greece may seek help from IMF over April 2-4 Easter weekend as Athens holds out little hope for aid next week from E.U., senior Greek official tells Dow Jones. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
0303 GMT [Dow Jones] Nymex crude prices may rise to $84-$85/bbl as investors dip their toes back into market, says Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch & Associates. "A renewed appetite for risk is currently spurring much of the price strength and is tied in with strong global equity markets and a soft U.S. dollar," he says in note; adds "For the time being, a renewed speculative incursion into the long side is developing even amid ample supply cover in both crude and products." According to weekly EIA report, crude stocks rose by 1 million barrels in week to March 12, in line with expectations of analysts in Dow Jones Newswires survey. Nymex crude last down 39 cents at $82.54/bbl on Globex after rising 1.5% overnight. (wayne.ma@dowjones.com)
Dow Average Exceeds Bull-Market Midpoint: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday rose above the midpoint of its last bull market in a positive sign for U.S. stocks, according to Richard Russell, who has studied the average since 1958.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aW87yc3Zfv1M
Oil Has $88 a Barrel as Next ‘Port of Call’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will have $88 a barrel as the next “port of call” if the market this week can surpass technical chart resistance above $83, according to National Australia Bank Ltd.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akne0WOXWQKY
Euro Stoxx 50 to Rise, Then Test August Low: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Europe’s Stoxx 50 may gain another 9 percent before the end of April and then tumble, testing August lows, according to a technical analyst at ING Groep NV.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAyzvhBpLaf8
BRICs Rally Slows Amid Highest Valuations Since 1995
(Bloomberg) -- The combination of record mutual fund inflows and the fastest economic growth are failing to lift shares in the largest developing nations with valuations at the highest level versus advanced countries since at least 1995.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKHc5hD9w5lQ
Jim Rogers Sizes Up Two Global Bubbles
The euro is unlikely to still exist as a currency over the longer term, the pound will fall substantially in the next few years and US Treasurys and some real estate in China are the world's two current bubbles, legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC.com Wednesday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35906680
10 Reasons to Keep Your Money in the Market
The Dow on Wednesday broke through its 2010 peak of 10,725, closing eight points higher to mark its seventh straight positive close. The S&P 500 meanwhile registered an even better run, finishing up for the 14th straight day. Given this, some analysts might say the markets are too hot, but Cramer thinks they’re exactly where they should be.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35892910
Bulls Should Be Slapped On The Side Of The Head
Chris Thornberg of Beacon Economics sure thinks so. He believes the state of the economy is far too precarious to support the market at its current levels.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35916113
Four Ways to Profit When Market Volume Takes a Plunge
Sure as the luck o' the Irish, the stock market's best fortunes over the past year have coincided with a low level of interest from investors.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35912868
Gallery Saham Mania: globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
ASII/CNKO (Bull Flag)ITMG/KIJA/PGAS/WIKA: Breakouts Signal - Continuing???
17/03 PGAS (4.250) Buy breakout di 4.150-4.250 (untuk besok) target 4294 (138.2%)/4.550 (161.8 FR), resiko di 3800-3900, saat ini berada di wave iii/5 final impulse dalam (I)
17/03 ITMG (36.150) Buy on weakness 35.500-36.200 masih dapat dilakukan target 36.950 (138.2% FR) & 38.425 (161.8 FR), resiko di kotak 34200-33.300.
17/03 ASII (40.550) buy masih dapat dilakukan target 43850 (panjang flag) setelah breakout bull flag, resiko di dibawah 39.000. ASII berada dalam wave iii/5 final impulse dalam (I).
17/03 WIKA (350) Buy breakout 345 target 380/400 resiko di bawah 320/430. WIKA dalam wave impulse iii/3.
17/03 ITMG (36.150) Buy on weakness 35.500-36.200 masih dapat dilakukan target 36.950 (138.2% FR) & 38.425 (161.8 FR), resiko di kotak 34200-33.300.
17/03 ASII (40.550) buy masih dapat dilakukan target 43850 (panjang flag) setelah breakout bull flag, resiko di dibawah 39.000. ASII berada dalam wave iii/5 final impulse dalam (I).
17/03 WIKA (350) Buy breakout 345 target 380/400 resiko di bawah 320/430. WIKA dalam wave impulse iii/3.
Universal Broker Indonesia Securities Daily Newsletter Vol 406
PELATIHAN ANALISA TEKNIKAL II. PT UBI Securities & PT Harumdana Berjangka
Sabtu, 20 Maret 2010: 09.30 WIB. Menara BCA lt. 49 Jln. MH. Thamrin No. 1 Jakpus
Market Review
Aksi profit-taking menjelang liburan Hari Raya Nyepi (16/03), mendorong laju kenaikan IHSG terbatas pada hari Senin (15/03), dimana sempat mencapai level tertinggi 2.683,107 , meski akhirnya ditutup menguat tipis, setelah mendapatkan sentimen positif dari kenaikan peringkat kredit jangka panjang Indonesia oleh lembaga pemeringkat internasional Standard & Poors menjadi BB dari BB- dan lebih baik dari perkiraan data penjualan ritel AS bulan lalu, diikuti kinerja indeks saham Asia dan Wall Street yang menguat di awal pekan. Kenaikan saham di sektor properti, infrastruktur dan financial, topang IHSG dan membatasi tekanan penjualan di sektor aneka industri, manufaktur, pertambangan, perkebunan, konsumsi dan perdagangan. Rallynya sejumlah saham lapis kedua dan ketiga (SDRA, ASIA, KIAS, ASDM, SCCO) hingga ITMG dan PGAS, ikut topang kenaikan IHSG. IHSG naik 3,097poin(+0,12%), di 2.669,608,transaksi sebesar Rp 2,97triliun.
Mayoritas indeks saham di regional Asia meningkat kemarin, dipimpin oleh saham dari perusahaan financial dan consumer, di tengah spekulasi bank sentral Jepang akan mengambil langkah-langkah untuk mengatasi deflasi. Saham Sony Financial Holdings menguat berkat perusahaan akan meningkatkan kepemilikan obligasi, Toyota Motor Corp, Kia Motors Corp Korea, menguat kemarin. Sun Hung Kai Properties terkoreksi setelah Hong Kong mengambil langkah untuk meredakan harga real-estate. Indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific naik 0,1% menjadi 122,88 kemarin. Indeks Shanghai naik 0,5%, Taiex Taiwan naik 0,8%, Nikkei 225 & Hang Seng melemah 0,3%.
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 31.2 8% +101.1% 6.50% 3.81% 5,4%
STI 21.2 16% +55.39% 0,5% -0.30% -3.5%
KLCI 15.7 10% +42.57% 2.0% -2.04% -3.9%
SET 30.00 4% +60.13% 1.25% -1.00% -4.9%
SSE 31.5 36% +50.17% 5.31% +2,7% +10,7%
N225 46.5 -1% +25.3% 0.10% -2.5% -5.1%
HSI 23.5 19% +52.97% 0.50% -1.60% +2,3%
DJIA 16.03 3% +26.5% 0.25% +2.6% +5.9%
IHSG Outlook
Potensi kenaikan IHSG masih terbuka, dari solidnya pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kinerja emiten (earning & pemberian dividen 2009) domestik hingga situasi sosial politik di dalam negeri, dapat meningkatkan keyakinan investor lokal dan asing masuk ke pasar modal, dapat mendorong aliran dana masuk ke Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) di pekan ini. Sementara potensi penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS (target Rp 9.000/9.100), berkat katalis positif dari pelemahan dolar AS terhadap mata uang Eropa dan Asia, penurunan CDS (credit default swap) Indonesia ke 155,87 hingga kenaikan peringkat kredit RI menjadi BB dari BB- oleh Standard Poors (akan diikuti Moodys di bulan mendatang), topang kinerja IHSG di pekan ini. Sejumlah perkembangan yang positif dari bantuan Uni Eropa kepada Yunani, rencana pemerintah Jepang mengatasi deflasi hingga The Fed AS akan pertahankan suku bunga di nol persen untuk menjaga pemulihan ekonomi, seharusnya memberikan support kepada IHSG. Meski
faktor teknikal yang overbought dalam trend bullish, dapat membatasi laju kenaikan IHSG di pekan ini, dibayangi kekhawatiran potensi kenaikan suku bunga China di bulan depan.
Stock Picks:Average last 35week +148.783%. Target 0-30%+, Risk < -10%
Top Pick UBI = +356.662% = +17.833%/saham.
Stock Picks:
# INTA: Hold #GJTL : Outperform
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia, Eropa hingga Wall Street diperkirakan masih mempertahankan momentum bullish jangka pendek di awal pekan ini, berkat the Fed AS masih mempertahankan suku bunga di kisaran nol persen hingga waktu yang lebih lama untuk menjaga pemulihan ekonomi, meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap ancaman penurunan rating kredit Yunani oleh Standard & Poors berkat usaha untuk mengurangi deficit anggaran dan Uni Eropa berjanji memberikan bantuan kepada Yunani kemarin hingga spekulasi bank sentral Jepang akan mengambil langkah untuk mengatasi deflasi di Jepang, dimana masih mendukung perkiraan stimulus global masih akan meningkat di bulan mendatang dan dipertahankan hingga ada jaminan pemulihan ekonomi terjaga. Hasil riset dari Bank of America Merrill Lynch menunjukkan risk appetite meningkat karena meredanya kekhawatiran bahwa suku bunga akan meningkat di akhir tahun ini, mendorong investor memangkas kepemilikan cash (tunai) dan membeli saham. Meski kekhawatiran terhadap sektor perumahan AS (pernyataan analis Whitney) dan spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga China, dapat membatasi momentum kenaikan indeks saham global.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle spinning top (momentum penurunan terbatas), berada di atas channel support di 2.602dan dalam uptrend channel, ditutup di atas 2.664 (5-day MA), seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan. Kondisi tersebut didukung ADX meningkat (momentum kenaikan mereda), stochastic bullish kendati overbought, MACD bullish, menunjukkan potensi kenaikan masih terbuka. Hitungan EW: tembusnya high 2.619 menunjukkan wave iv/3 dalam impulse final 5 kemungkinan berakhir untuk proses v/3 – 5 target 2.689/2.735 (161.8 Fibo). Support di 2.645/2.620. Analisa W.Gann menunjukkan target 3.150 di Q2/Q3 2010, jika ditutup diatas 2.735 (FR 161.8%) di bulan ini. Hold Sell 2.670/2.689 target 2.600 (+20p). Buy 2.645 & buy break 2.690 target 2.735, stop 2.670.
Resistance: 2707.25/2694.98/2688.63/2676.36. P2670.42
Support : 2664.08/2657.74/2645.872633.59
Sabtu, 20 Maret 2010: 09.30 WIB. Menara BCA lt. 49 Jln. MH. Thamrin No. 1 Jakpus
Market Review
Aksi profit-taking menjelang liburan Hari Raya Nyepi (16/03), mendorong laju kenaikan IHSG terbatas pada hari Senin (15/03), dimana sempat mencapai level tertinggi 2.683,107 , meski akhirnya ditutup menguat tipis, setelah mendapatkan sentimen positif dari kenaikan peringkat kredit jangka panjang Indonesia oleh lembaga pemeringkat internasional Standard & Poors menjadi BB dari BB- dan lebih baik dari perkiraan data penjualan ritel AS bulan lalu, diikuti kinerja indeks saham Asia dan Wall Street yang menguat di awal pekan. Kenaikan saham di sektor properti, infrastruktur dan financial, topang IHSG dan membatasi tekanan penjualan di sektor aneka industri, manufaktur, pertambangan, perkebunan, konsumsi dan perdagangan. Rallynya sejumlah saham lapis kedua dan ketiga (SDRA, ASIA, KIAS, ASDM, SCCO) hingga ITMG dan PGAS, ikut topang kenaikan IHSG. IHSG naik 3,097poin(+0,12%), di 2.669,608,transaksi sebesar Rp 2,97triliun.
Mayoritas indeks saham di regional Asia meningkat kemarin, dipimpin oleh saham dari perusahaan financial dan consumer, di tengah spekulasi bank sentral Jepang akan mengambil langkah-langkah untuk mengatasi deflasi. Saham Sony Financial Holdings menguat berkat perusahaan akan meningkatkan kepemilikan obligasi, Toyota Motor Corp, Kia Motors Corp Korea, menguat kemarin. Sun Hung Kai Properties terkoreksi setelah Hong Kong mengambil langkah untuk meredakan harga real-estate. Indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific naik 0,1% menjadi 122,88 kemarin. Indeks Shanghai naik 0,5%, Taiex Taiwan naik 0,8%, Nikkei 225 & Hang Seng melemah 0,3%.
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 31.2 8% +101.1% 6.50% 3.81% 5,4%
STI 21.2 16% +55.39% 0,5% -0.30% -3.5%
KLCI 15.7 10% +42.57% 2.0% -2.04% -3.9%
SET 30.00 4% +60.13% 1.25% -1.00% -4.9%
SSE 31.5 36% +50.17% 5.31% +2,7% +10,7%
N225 46.5 -1% +25.3% 0.10% -2.5% -5.1%
HSI 23.5 19% +52.97% 0.50% -1.60% +2,3%
DJIA 16.03 3% +26.5% 0.25% +2.6% +5.9%
IHSG Outlook
Potensi kenaikan IHSG masih terbuka, dari solidnya pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kinerja emiten (earning & pemberian dividen 2009) domestik hingga situasi sosial politik di dalam negeri, dapat meningkatkan keyakinan investor lokal dan asing masuk ke pasar modal, dapat mendorong aliran dana masuk ke Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) di pekan ini. Sementara potensi penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS (target Rp 9.000/9.100), berkat katalis positif dari pelemahan dolar AS terhadap mata uang Eropa dan Asia, penurunan CDS (credit default swap) Indonesia ke 155,87 hingga kenaikan peringkat kredit RI menjadi BB dari BB- oleh Standard Poors (akan diikuti Moodys di bulan mendatang), topang kinerja IHSG di pekan ini. Sejumlah perkembangan yang positif dari bantuan Uni Eropa kepada Yunani, rencana pemerintah Jepang mengatasi deflasi hingga The Fed AS akan pertahankan suku bunga di nol persen untuk menjaga pemulihan ekonomi, seharusnya memberikan support kepada IHSG. Meski
faktor teknikal yang overbought dalam trend bullish, dapat membatasi laju kenaikan IHSG di pekan ini, dibayangi kekhawatiran potensi kenaikan suku bunga China di bulan depan.
Stock Picks:Average last 35week +148.783%. Target 0-30%+, Risk < -10%
Top Pick UBI = +356.662% = +17.833%/saham.
Stock Picks:
# INTA: Hold #GJTL : Outperform
Global Outlook
Indeks saham regional Asia, Eropa hingga Wall Street diperkirakan masih mempertahankan momentum bullish jangka pendek di awal pekan ini, berkat the Fed AS masih mempertahankan suku bunga di kisaran nol persen hingga waktu yang lebih lama untuk menjaga pemulihan ekonomi, meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap ancaman penurunan rating kredit Yunani oleh Standard & Poors berkat usaha untuk mengurangi deficit anggaran dan Uni Eropa berjanji memberikan bantuan kepada Yunani kemarin hingga spekulasi bank sentral Jepang akan mengambil langkah untuk mengatasi deflasi di Jepang, dimana masih mendukung perkiraan stimulus global masih akan meningkat di bulan mendatang dan dipertahankan hingga ada jaminan pemulihan ekonomi terjaga. Hasil riset dari Bank of America Merrill Lynch menunjukkan risk appetite meningkat karena meredanya kekhawatiran bahwa suku bunga akan meningkat di akhir tahun ini, mendorong investor memangkas kepemilikan cash (tunai) dan membeli saham. Meski kekhawatiran terhadap sektor perumahan AS (pernyataan analis Whitney) dan spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga China, dapat membatasi momentum kenaikan indeks saham global.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle spinning top (momentum penurunan terbatas), berada di atas channel support di 2.602dan dalam uptrend channel, ditutup di atas 2.664 (5-day MA), seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan. Kondisi tersebut didukung ADX meningkat (momentum kenaikan mereda), stochastic bullish kendati overbought, MACD bullish, menunjukkan potensi kenaikan masih terbuka. Hitungan EW: tembusnya high 2.619 menunjukkan wave iv/3 dalam impulse final 5 kemungkinan berakhir untuk proses v/3 – 5 target 2.689/2.735 (161.8 Fibo). Support di 2.645/2.620. Analisa W.Gann menunjukkan target 3.150 di Q2/Q3 2010, jika ditutup diatas 2.735 (FR 161.8%) di bulan ini. Hold Sell 2.670/2.689 target 2.600 (+20p). Buy 2.645 & buy break 2.690 target 2.735, stop 2.670.
Resistance: 2707.25/2694.98/2688.63/2676.36. P2670.42
Support : 2664.08/2657.74/2645.872633.59
Laporan Rumor & Fundamental Saham IHSG 17-03
Saham PT Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk (KIJA) dikabarkan bakal dikerek bandar. Mereka memanfaatkan kabar yang menyebutkan bahwa perseroan akan menggarap proyek properti superblok di bilangan Karet Tengsin Sudirman, Jakarta, serta pembangkit listriknya diminati oleh PT Perusahaan Lsitrik Negara (PLN).
Pemodal sebaiknya mulai mencermati pergerakan saham PT Tirta Mahakam Resources Tbk (TIRT) karena sahamya dalam tren menguat Maret 2010. Sindikasi bank BUMN dikabarkan siap mengucurkan dana kepada Tirta Mahakam untuk mengembangkan usaha di bidang pertambangan.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dibuka menguat tajam pada perdagangan hari ini, sedangkan nilai tukar rupiah naik tipis. Penguatan saham-saham unggulan mengkerek IHSG melesat lebih dari 2%. Namun langsung berbalik arah dengan cepat dan melesat naik hingga sempat menyentuh level 2.733.565, atau naik 63 poin (2.733%). Kenaikan ini sekaligus menjadi yang tertinggi diantara bursa-bursa regional Asia lainnya.Penguatan IHSG terutama didorong oleh penguatan tajam saham Indo Tambang (ITMG) dan saham-saham grup Astra, serta saham-saham unggulan lainnya hampir di semua sektor. Indeks saham tambang melesat paling tinggi diikuti dengan indeks saham sektor perkebunan dan misc industry serta saham sektor konsumsi. Tak ada saham unggulan yang nyemplung ke zona negatif pada awal perdagangan hari ini. Sementara nilai tukar rupiah dibuka naik ke level 9.155 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan sebelumnya di level 9.165 per dolar AS. Bursa-bursa Asia juga seluruhnya menguat seiring dengan sentimen positif atas kebijakan The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga acuan AS.
* Indeks Nikkei-225 menguat 74,07 poin (0,69%) ke level 10.795,78.
* Indeks Straits Times menguat 6 poin (0,21%) ke level 2.903,38.
* Indeks Hang Seng menguat 173,15 poin (0,82%) ke level 21.196,17.
Harga minyak menguat ke $ 81.79/barel, emas ke $ 1.126.60/troy ons, nikel $ 22.055, timah $ 17655.
Fed Pertahankan Suku Bunga, Uni Eropa bantu Yunani. Bursa Asia Menghijau
The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya di level 0,25%.
Konsorsium Multicapital yang merupakan anak usaha PT Bumi Resources Tbk dengan Pemda Nusa Tenggara Barat melalui PT Multi Daerah Bersaing (MDB) kembali membeli 7% saham divestasi PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara pada Senin (15/3/2010). Dengan begitu maka MDB resmi menguasai 24% saham Newmont.
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) hingga saat ini belum melakukan kajian apapun terhadap tambang Freeport. Hal ini disampaikan Achmad Sudarto, Sekretaris Perusahaan PTBA dalam keterbukaan informasinya ke BEI yang dikutip INILAH.COM, Selasa (16/3).
Harga Obligasi MPPA Naik Menjelang Buyback
MPPA punya hak untuk membeli obligasinya sebelum jatuh tempo pada 7 Agustus 2010 di harga 105,38.
Berharap Harga CPO Bisa Meghapus Rapor Buruk
Penurunan kinerja LSIP pada 2009 terjadi karena harga CPO dan kernel yang menurun.
UNSP & Spinnaker Sepakat 'Crossing" Jual Beli Saham
UNSP sepakat telah menutup transaksi perjanjian jual beli saham dengan Spinnaker Global Fund Limited di Agri International Resources Pte. Ltd (AIRPL) pada 11 Maret 2010.
PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk (UNSP) telah menutup transaksi perjanjian jual beli saham dengan Spinnaker Global Emerging Markets Fund Limited di Agri International Resources Pte. Ltd (AIRPL).
Akuisisi Elnusa Rampung
Benakat Terbitkan 'Promissory Note' Rp894,81 M
BIPI telah merampungkan akusisi atas 37,15% saham Elnusa pada 12 Maret. Akuisisi ini diperoleh dari pinjaman melalui penerbitan promissory note Rp894,81 miliar.
PT Kokoh Inti Arebama Tbk (KOIN) berhasil mendapatkan pinjaman sebesar Rp200 juta.
Economic: Asumsi Laju Ekonomi Berpeluang Naik
Pemerintah mengisyaratkan target pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia 2010 berpeluang direvisi naik dari angka yang dipatok saat ini sebesar 5,5%. Menteri Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional/Kepala Bappenas mengungkapkan pemerintah tengah mengkaji kembali asumsi pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam pembahasan RAPBN-P 2010.
Auto: Pasar mobil 2010 akan tembus 600.000 unit
Volume pasar mobil nasional pada tahun ini diprediksi bisa menembus lebih dari 600.000 unit, melampaui realisasi 2008 dengan syarat tidak ada kenaikan pajak, kondisi makro ekonomi yang stabil dan suku bunga acuan tetap 6,5%. Selama dua bulan terakhir, pasar mobil di dalam negeri terus menunjukkan tren peningkatan dengan realisasi penjualan wholesales (pengiriman pabrik ke diler) sebesar 52.831 unit (Januari) dan menguat lagi menjadi 55.656 unit (Februari). Angka tersebut masing-masing melambung 67% dan 61,3% dibandingkan dengan posisi Januari dan Februari 2009.
Energy: BPS: Kenaikan TDL 15% Tak Banyak Pengaruhi Inflasi
Kenaikan Tarif Dasar Listrik (TDL) sebesar 15% yang rencananya akan diberlakukan mulai Juli nanti diyakini tidak banyak menambah laju inflasi tahun ini. Syaratnya, pemerintah harus mampu mengatasi dampak psikologis dari kenaikan TDL tersebut. Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mengakui, kenaikan TDL memang akan berdampak langsung kepada konsumen rumah tangga karena mereka harus menganggarkan dana lebih besar untuk membayar listrik. Namun, hal tersebut tidak memberikan pengaruh yang disignifikan terhadap angka inflasi karena komponen TDL dalam perhitungan inflasi tidak sebesar komponen lainnya.
Economic: Kepemilikan Asing di SUN Naik
Kepemilikan investor asing pada surat utang negara (SUN) meningkat dari level Rp127,54 T pada 11 Maret menjadi Rp127,76 T pada 12 Maret. Dengan begitu, persentase kepemilikan asing meningkat menjadi 21,16%. Data Ditjen Pengelolaan Utang Kemenkeu menunjukkan porsi kepemilikan asing itu tidak menurun meskipun jumlah total SUN yang beredar berkurang dari level Rp603,62 T pada 10 Maret menjadi Rp601,72 T 11 Maret.
Property: Kredit Bank Asing dan Campuran Anjlok
Penyaluran kredit properti oleh bank asing dan campuran terus merosot. Data BI menyebutkan, hingga Januari 2010 nilai kredit properti tercatat sebesar Rp 6,43 triliun, atau turun 42,62% dibandingkan posisi Januari 2009. Penurunan itu dipimpin oleh jenis KPR dan KPA.
BBNI: Targetkan Right Issue Rp6 Triliun
PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) ditargetkan bisa meraup dana sekitar Rp5-6 triliun dari penerbitan saham baru (right issue) pada 2H10. Pada saat yang sama, perusahaan BUMN ini juga akan melepas 4,14% saham tambahan (green shoe). Hingga saat ini, pemerintah masih menguasai saham BNI 76,36% dan sisanya 23,64% dipegang oleh publik. BNI akan menambah sahamnya ke publik sebesar 16,36%, dengan asumsi saham publik akan ditingkatkan menjadi 40% dari saat ini masih 23,64%.
INTP: Penjualan Indocement Turun 8% di 2009
Penjualan semen PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk (INTP) tercatat turun 8% dari 14,6 juta ton di tahun 2008 menjadi 13,4 juta ton pada periode 2009. Pasar domestik masih menjadi andalan penjualan perseroan, dengan porsi 88% atau setara dengan 11,8 juta ton. Menurut Corporate Secretary PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk Dani Handayani, penurunan penjualan perseroan disebabkan kebijakan manajemen untuk mempertahankan harga jual semen dalam negeri, sebagai pangsa pasar utama (home market). Perseroan juga berniat menambah kapasitas produksi semen dengan penambahan dua cement mill atau pabrik semen, dengan total kapasitas 1,5 juta ton semen per tahun. Total investasi yang disiapkan perseroan mencapai US$35 juta atau sekitar Rp321 miliar. Tahun ini Indocement memperkirakan produsi semen mencapai 20,1 juta ton per tahun atau meningkat 1,5 juta ton dari posisi sebelumnya yang tercatat 18,6 juta ton.
BIPI: Akuisisi Elnusa Lunas April
PT Benakat Petroleum Energy Tbk (BIPI) akan menyelesaikan sisa pembayaran akuisisi 37,15% saham PT Elnusa Tbk sebesar Rp 302,3 miliar pada 12 April 2010, yang dananya berasal dari surat sanggup (promissory notes). Skema pembayaran transaksi dilakukan dalam 2 tahap, yaitu pada 12 Maret 2010 sebesar Rp 592,51 miliar dan sisanya pada 12 April 2010 senilai Rp 302,3 miliar.
BMRI: Penerbitan Obligasi Terancam Batal
PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) akan membatalkan penerbitan obligasi berdenominasi dolar AS senilai US$ 200 juta - US$ 300 juta apabila rights issue disetujui pelaksanaannya tahun ini. Perseroan menunggu keputusan dari pemerintah selaku pemegang saham mayoritas.
KLBF: Siapkan Obligasi untuk Danai Akuisisi
PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF) menyiapkan dana akusisi senilai Rp 1 triliun, dimana sebagian dananya akan ditutup dari kas internal dan sisanya dari penerbitan obligasi. Perusahaan farmasi itu telah melakukan penjajakan dengan 15 perusahaan lokal di bidang makanan kesehatan dan obat dan pihaknya tengah memfinalisasi hasil pembicaraan tersebut.
BHIT: Bagi Saham Bonus
PT Bhakti Investama Tbk (BHIT) berencana membagikan saham bonus kepada pemegang sahamnya, dengan rasio 1:3. Saham itu berasal dari agio saham yang saat ini mencapai Rp 2,83 triliun yang diperoleh dari hasil penawaran saham perdana dan rights issue.
BRPT: Kuasai 10,59% Saham Gozco
PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) meningkatkan kepemilikan sahamnya di PT Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO) menjadi 529,71 juta saham atau 10,59% dari sebelumnya 500 juta saham (10%). Nantinya kontribusi kepemilikan saham Gozco tidak akan terkonsolidasi dalam keuangan laporan keuangan Barito Pacific. Namun, kepemilikan 10,59% saham Gozco akan termasuk dalam aset investasi perseroan.
BLTA: Terbitkan Obligasi Konversi US$125 Juta
PT Berlian Laju Tangker Tbk (BLTA) menunjuk JP Morgan Securities Ltd dan RS Platou Markets AS untuk melaksanakan obligasi konversi perseroan senilai US$125 juta atau sekitar Rp1,14 triliun. Dengan rencana semula penerbitan obligasi konversi sebesar US$100 juta, perseroan menambah sebesar US$25 juta. Obligasi konversi itu berkupon 12% dan akan jatuh tempo pada 2015.
FREN: Bond Mobile-8 Default
PT Mobile-8 Telecom Tbk (FREN) kembali gagal membayar (default) bunga dan denda obligasinya. Bunga obligasi yang gagal bayar itu adalah bunga obligasi ke-12 dari obligasi tahap I/2007, sedangkan denda yang belum dilunasi perseroan sampai jatuh tempo pembayaran 15 Maret 2010 adalah denda ke-9 tahap kedua obligasi I/2007. Akibat kegagalan tersebut, otoritas bursa Senin pekan ini membekukan perdagangan obligasi itu sekaligus menghentikan sementara transaksi saham perusahaan.
Corporate Actions
Hari ini (17/3), cum date rights issue Sumalindo Lestari Jaya Tbk (SULI), ratio 1(new) : 1(old) Rp 100/saham. Ex date (18 Mar 2010)
Hari ini (17/3), cum date stock split Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI), ratio 1(old) : 4(new) Ex date (18 Mar 2010)
Pemegang saham mayoritas PT Trimegah Securities Tbk (TRIM), Spinnaker melalui Demerara Limited pemilik 25,05% telah menawarkan sahamnya kepada bos Nortstar Pasific Partner Patrick Waluyo.
ANTA Catatkan Laba Bersih Naik 37%
PT Antra Express Tour&Travel Tbk (ANTA) mencatatkan laba bersih Rp15,896miliar atau naik 37% pada 2009 dibandingkan periode sama sebelumnya Rp11,601 miliar pada 2008
Sepanjang 2009, PT Kabel Indonesia Tbk (KLBI) mencatat penurunan yang signifikan atau penjualan bersih 52,52% menjadi Rp822,27 miliar dari Rp1,73 triliun.
Bank Dunia menaikkan proyeksi pertumbuhan Cina 2010 menjadi 9,5%, dari sebelumnya 9%. Kenaikan tersebut dilakukan Bank Dunia dengan syarat Cina harus berhasil meredan pergerakan inflasi dan potensi bubble dalam transaksi perumahana. Demikian seperti dikutip dari AP, Rabu (17/3).
Mackenzie Cuncill Investment Management Ltd menguasai 6 miliar lembar saham setara 6,40% saham PT Bakrie & Brother Tbk (BNBR).
PT Ciputra Development Tbk (CTRA) telah membukukan penjualan perumahan sebesar Rp300 miliar dalam periode Januari-Februari 2010.
Garuda Incar Dana IPO US$300 Juta
Perusahan penerbangan pelat merah, PT Garuda Indonesia menargetkan pendapatan dari rencana initial public offering (IPO) mencapai
Sumber: Bloomberg, inilah.com, kontan, investordaily, detikfinance.com (market flash)
Gallery Saham Mania : globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Pemodal sebaiknya mulai mencermati pergerakan saham PT Tirta Mahakam Resources Tbk (TIRT) karena sahamya dalam tren menguat Maret 2010. Sindikasi bank BUMN dikabarkan siap mengucurkan dana kepada Tirta Mahakam untuk mengembangkan usaha di bidang pertambangan.
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dibuka menguat tajam pada perdagangan hari ini, sedangkan nilai tukar rupiah naik tipis. Penguatan saham-saham unggulan mengkerek IHSG melesat lebih dari 2%. Namun langsung berbalik arah dengan cepat dan melesat naik hingga sempat menyentuh level 2.733.565, atau naik 63 poin (2.733%). Kenaikan ini sekaligus menjadi yang tertinggi diantara bursa-bursa regional Asia lainnya.Penguatan IHSG terutama didorong oleh penguatan tajam saham Indo Tambang (ITMG) dan saham-saham grup Astra, serta saham-saham unggulan lainnya hampir di semua sektor. Indeks saham tambang melesat paling tinggi diikuti dengan indeks saham sektor perkebunan dan misc industry serta saham sektor konsumsi. Tak ada saham unggulan yang nyemplung ke zona negatif pada awal perdagangan hari ini. Sementara nilai tukar rupiah dibuka naik ke level 9.155 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan sebelumnya di level 9.165 per dolar AS. Bursa-bursa Asia juga seluruhnya menguat seiring dengan sentimen positif atas kebijakan The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga acuan AS.
* Indeks Nikkei-225 menguat 74,07 poin (0,69%) ke level 10.795,78.
* Indeks Straits Times menguat 6 poin (0,21%) ke level 2.903,38.
* Indeks Hang Seng menguat 173,15 poin (0,82%) ke level 21.196,17.
Harga minyak menguat ke $ 81.79/barel, emas ke $ 1.126.60/troy ons, nikel $ 22.055, timah $ 17655.
Fed Pertahankan Suku Bunga, Uni Eropa bantu Yunani. Bursa Asia Menghijau
The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya di level 0,25%.
Konsorsium Multicapital yang merupakan anak usaha PT Bumi Resources Tbk dengan Pemda Nusa Tenggara Barat melalui PT Multi Daerah Bersaing (MDB) kembali membeli 7% saham divestasi PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara pada Senin (15/3/2010). Dengan begitu maka MDB resmi menguasai 24% saham Newmont.
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) hingga saat ini belum melakukan kajian apapun terhadap tambang Freeport. Hal ini disampaikan Achmad Sudarto, Sekretaris Perusahaan PTBA dalam keterbukaan informasinya ke BEI yang dikutip INILAH.COM, Selasa (16/3).
Harga Obligasi MPPA Naik Menjelang Buyback
MPPA punya hak untuk membeli obligasinya sebelum jatuh tempo pada 7 Agustus 2010 di harga 105,38.
Berharap Harga CPO Bisa Meghapus Rapor Buruk
Penurunan kinerja LSIP pada 2009 terjadi karena harga CPO dan kernel yang menurun.
UNSP & Spinnaker Sepakat 'Crossing" Jual Beli Saham
UNSP sepakat telah menutup transaksi perjanjian jual beli saham dengan Spinnaker Global Fund Limited di Agri International Resources Pte. Ltd (AIRPL) pada 11 Maret 2010.
PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk (UNSP) telah menutup transaksi perjanjian jual beli saham dengan Spinnaker Global Emerging Markets Fund Limited di Agri International Resources Pte. Ltd (AIRPL).
Akuisisi Elnusa Rampung
Benakat Terbitkan 'Promissory Note' Rp894,81 M
BIPI telah merampungkan akusisi atas 37,15% saham Elnusa pada 12 Maret. Akuisisi ini diperoleh dari pinjaman melalui penerbitan promissory note Rp894,81 miliar.
PT Kokoh Inti Arebama Tbk (KOIN) berhasil mendapatkan pinjaman sebesar Rp200 juta.
Economic: Asumsi Laju Ekonomi Berpeluang Naik
Pemerintah mengisyaratkan target pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia 2010 berpeluang direvisi naik dari angka yang dipatok saat ini sebesar 5,5%. Menteri Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional/Kepala Bappenas mengungkapkan pemerintah tengah mengkaji kembali asumsi pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam pembahasan RAPBN-P 2010.
Auto: Pasar mobil 2010 akan tembus 600.000 unit
Volume pasar mobil nasional pada tahun ini diprediksi bisa menembus lebih dari 600.000 unit, melampaui realisasi 2008 dengan syarat tidak ada kenaikan pajak, kondisi makro ekonomi yang stabil dan suku bunga acuan tetap 6,5%. Selama dua bulan terakhir, pasar mobil di dalam negeri terus menunjukkan tren peningkatan dengan realisasi penjualan wholesales (pengiriman pabrik ke diler) sebesar 52.831 unit (Januari) dan menguat lagi menjadi 55.656 unit (Februari). Angka tersebut masing-masing melambung 67% dan 61,3% dibandingkan dengan posisi Januari dan Februari 2009.
Energy: BPS: Kenaikan TDL 15% Tak Banyak Pengaruhi Inflasi
Kenaikan Tarif Dasar Listrik (TDL) sebesar 15% yang rencananya akan diberlakukan mulai Juli nanti diyakini tidak banyak menambah laju inflasi tahun ini. Syaratnya, pemerintah harus mampu mengatasi dampak psikologis dari kenaikan TDL tersebut. Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mengakui, kenaikan TDL memang akan berdampak langsung kepada konsumen rumah tangga karena mereka harus menganggarkan dana lebih besar untuk membayar listrik. Namun, hal tersebut tidak memberikan pengaruh yang disignifikan terhadap angka inflasi karena komponen TDL dalam perhitungan inflasi tidak sebesar komponen lainnya.
Economic: Kepemilikan Asing di SUN Naik
Kepemilikan investor asing pada surat utang negara (SUN) meningkat dari level Rp127,54 T pada 11 Maret menjadi Rp127,76 T pada 12 Maret. Dengan begitu, persentase kepemilikan asing meningkat menjadi 21,16%. Data Ditjen Pengelolaan Utang Kemenkeu menunjukkan porsi kepemilikan asing itu tidak menurun meskipun jumlah total SUN yang beredar berkurang dari level Rp603,62 T pada 10 Maret menjadi Rp601,72 T 11 Maret.
Property: Kredit Bank Asing dan Campuran Anjlok
Penyaluran kredit properti oleh bank asing dan campuran terus merosot. Data BI menyebutkan, hingga Januari 2010 nilai kredit properti tercatat sebesar Rp 6,43 triliun, atau turun 42,62% dibandingkan posisi Januari 2009. Penurunan itu dipimpin oleh jenis KPR dan KPA.
BBNI: Targetkan Right Issue Rp6 Triliun
PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) ditargetkan bisa meraup dana sekitar Rp5-6 triliun dari penerbitan saham baru (right issue) pada 2H10. Pada saat yang sama, perusahaan BUMN ini juga akan melepas 4,14% saham tambahan (green shoe). Hingga saat ini, pemerintah masih menguasai saham BNI 76,36% dan sisanya 23,64% dipegang oleh publik. BNI akan menambah sahamnya ke publik sebesar 16,36%, dengan asumsi saham publik akan ditingkatkan menjadi 40% dari saat ini masih 23,64%.
INTP: Penjualan Indocement Turun 8% di 2009
Penjualan semen PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk (INTP) tercatat turun 8% dari 14,6 juta ton di tahun 2008 menjadi 13,4 juta ton pada periode 2009. Pasar domestik masih menjadi andalan penjualan perseroan, dengan porsi 88% atau setara dengan 11,8 juta ton. Menurut Corporate Secretary PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk Dani Handayani, penurunan penjualan perseroan disebabkan kebijakan manajemen untuk mempertahankan harga jual semen dalam negeri, sebagai pangsa pasar utama (home market). Perseroan juga berniat menambah kapasitas produksi semen dengan penambahan dua cement mill atau pabrik semen, dengan total kapasitas 1,5 juta ton semen per tahun. Total investasi yang disiapkan perseroan mencapai US$35 juta atau sekitar Rp321 miliar. Tahun ini Indocement memperkirakan produsi semen mencapai 20,1 juta ton per tahun atau meningkat 1,5 juta ton dari posisi sebelumnya yang tercatat 18,6 juta ton.
BIPI: Akuisisi Elnusa Lunas April
PT Benakat Petroleum Energy Tbk (BIPI) akan menyelesaikan sisa pembayaran akuisisi 37,15% saham PT Elnusa Tbk sebesar Rp 302,3 miliar pada 12 April 2010, yang dananya berasal dari surat sanggup (promissory notes). Skema pembayaran transaksi dilakukan dalam 2 tahap, yaitu pada 12 Maret 2010 sebesar Rp 592,51 miliar dan sisanya pada 12 April 2010 senilai Rp 302,3 miliar.
BMRI: Penerbitan Obligasi Terancam Batal
PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) akan membatalkan penerbitan obligasi berdenominasi dolar AS senilai US$ 200 juta - US$ 300 juta apabila rights issue disetujui pelaksanaannya tahun ini. Perseroan menunggu keputusan dari pemerintah selaku pemegang saham mayoritas.
KLBF: Siapkan Obligasi untuk Danai Akuisisi
PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF) menyiapkan dana akusisi senilai Rp 1 triliun, dimana sebagian dananya akan ditutup dari kas internal dan sisanya dari penerbitan obligasi. Perusahaan farmasi itu telah melakukan penjajakan dengan 15 perusahaan lokal di bidang makanan kesehatan dan obat dan pihaknya tengah memfinalisasi hasil pembicaraan tersebut.
BHIT: Bagi Saham Bonus
PT Bhakti Investama Tbk (BHIT) berencana membagikan saham bonus kepada pemegang sahamnya, dengan rasio 1:3. Saham itu berasal dari agio saham yang saat ini mencapai Rp 2,83 triliun yang diperoleh dari hasil penawaran saham perdana dan rights issue.
BRPT: Kuasai 10,59% Saham Gozco
PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) meningkatkan kepemilikan sahamnya di PT Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO) menjadi 529,71 juta saham atau 10,59% dari sebelumnya 500 juta saham (10%). Nantinya kontribusi kepemilikan saham Gozco tidak akan terkonsolidasi dalam keuangan laporan keuangan Barito Pacific. Namun, kepemilikan 10,59% saham Gozco akan termasuk dalam aset investasi perseroan.
BLTA: Terbitkan Obligasi Konversi US$125 Juta
PT Berlian Laju Tangker Tbk (BLTA) menunjuk JP Morgan Securities Ltd dan RS Platou Markets AS untuk melaksanakan obligasi konversi perseroan senilai US$125 juta atau sekitar Rp1,14 triliun. Dengan rencana semula penerbitan obligasi konversi sebesar US$100 juta, perseroan menambah sebesar US$25 juta. Obligasi konversi itu berkupon 12% dan akan jatuh tempo pada 2015.
FREN: Bond Mobile-8 Default
PT Mobile-8 Telecom Tbk (FREN) kembali gagal membayar (default) bunga dan denda obligasinya. Bunga obligasi yang gagal bayar itu adalah bunga obligasi ke-12 dari obligasi tahap I/2007, sedangkan denda yang belum dilunasi perseroan sampai jatuh tempo pembayaran 15 Maret 2010 adalah denda ke-9 tahap kedua obligasi I/2007. Akibat kegagalan tersebut, otoritas bursa Senin pekan ini membekukan perdagangan obligasi itu sekaligus menghentikan sementara transaksi saham perusahaan.
Corporate Actions
Hari ini (17/3), cum date rights issue Sumalindo Lestari Jaya Tbk (SULI), ratio 1(new) : 1(old) Rp 100/saham. Ex date (18 Mar 2010)
Hari ini (17/3), cum date stock split Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI), ratio 1(old) : 4(new) Ex date (18 Mar 2010)
Pemegang saham mayoritas PT Trimegah Securities Tbk (TRIM), Spinnaker melalui Demerara Limited pemilik 25,05% telah menawarkan sahamnya kepada bos Nortstar Pasific Partner Patrick Waluyo.
ANTA Catatkan Laba Bersih Naik 37%
PT Antra Express Tour&Travel Tbk (ANTA) mencatatkan laba bersih Rp15,896miliar atau naik 37% pada 2009 dibandingkan periode sama sebelumnya Rp11,601 miliar pada 2008
Sepanjang 2009, PT Kabel Indonesia Tbk (KLBI) mencatat penurunan yang signifikan atau penjualan bersih 52,52% menjadi Rp822,27 miliar dari Rp1,73 triliun.
Bank Dunia menaikkan proyeksi pertumbuhan Cina 2010 menjadi 9,5%, dari sebelumnya 9%. Kenaikan tersebut dilakukan Bank Dunia dengan syarat Cina harus berhasil meredan pergerakan inflasi dan potensi bubble dalam transaksi perumahana. Demikian seperti dikutip dari AP, Rabu (17/3).
Mackenzie Cuncill Investment Management Ltd menguasai 6 miliar lembar saham setara 6,40% saham PT Bakrie & Brother Tbk (BNBR).
PT Ciputra Development Tbk (CTRA) telah membukukan penjualan perumahan sebesar Rp300 miliar dalam periode Januari-Februari 2010.
Garuda Incar Dana IPO US$300 Juta
Perusahan penerbangan pelat merah, PT Garuda Indonesia menargetkan pendapatan dari rencana initial public offering (IPO) mencapai
Sumber: Bloomberg, inilah.com, kontan, investordaily, detikfinance.com (market flash)
Gallery Saham Mania : globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Update Daily Investment News
0525 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesian shares extend gains strongly before midday break, as investors grab blue chips, dealers say; main index +2.3% at 2731,428, with 143 gainers, 39 decliners; volume robust at 3.4 billion shares worth IDR3 trillion. "I think our market got a boost from Wall Street's gain, which has also driven other regional bourses higher," says Sucorinvest's director Adrian Rusmana; Telkom (TLKM.JK) +1.2% at IDR8,450, Bumi (BUMI.JK) +1.0% at IDR2,525, Indosat (ISAT.JK) +3.3% at IDR6,250, Astra International (ASII.JK) +3.6% at IDR40,050; 2660-2708 range tipped for afternoon session. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0903 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR bounces up from intraday low on profit taking after massive selloff earlier in day; pair now at 9,110 vs 9,165 late Monday, but off 9,097 intraday low. "Capital inflows into the local stocks and bonds dragged the dollar lower," dealer says; Bank Indonesia was not heard buying pair in market; 9,100-9,130 range tipped for tomorrow. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0843 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesian government local bonds higher as Fed set to keep rates low for while; buying mostly in long tenors, dealers say. "Investors are buying the long tenors as they lagged behind recent gains in the short, and the medium tenors," dealer says; adds last week's upgrade in Indonesia's ratings by S&P seems to be still helping sentiment on long-term bonds. Yield of FR24 (due 2023) down at 9.47% vs 9.71% Monday; FR44 (due 2024) down at 9.74% vs 10.00%; FR40 (due 2026) down at 9.85% vs 10.06%, and FR75 (due 2028) down at 10.23% vs 10.39%; dealers expect bond market to extend gains tomorrow, especially long ends. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0413 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei up 0.4% at 10,768.63 after reaching 10,831.57 soon after BOJ announces further monetary policy easing steps by expanding fund-supplying program, market analysts say. "The central bank's decision is what has been expected...this is giving investors a relief, but they may start taking profits as the big news is (now) out," says Shinichiro Matsushita, market analyst at Daiwa Securities. Nikkei may stay between 10,700-10,850, he says. Such sectors as real estate and consumer finance will likely stay stronger mid-term as easy monetary policy, aimed at fighting deflation, boosts liquidity, enabling consumers to buy condos and increase general spending, he adds. Topix onsumer lending subindex leading board with 2.0% gain, real estate subindex also up 0.7%; Orix (8591.TO) up 2.8% to Y7,430. Mitsui Fudosan (8801.TO) up 0.9% to Y1,643. (ayai.tomisawa@dowjones.com)
0420 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI extends gains, now +1.6% at 21,350.23, though size of gains not noteworthy, index breaches extremely narrow 21,000-21,300 band held for past 7 sessions (though break yet to be confirmed with a close above range). Technicals likely to attract more buyers as such a break usually implies extension of gains or losses (depending on direction of break); aided by likely short-covering or investors cutting position on longs. Technical break usually accompanied by higher volume; today's market volume picks up to HK$29.69 billion with about half an hour until midday close, already above HK$28.81 billion at midday yesterday. 42 of 43 blue chips now higher; those rising at least 3% include HK & China Gas (0003.HK), SHK Properties (0016.HK), Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK), China Merchants (0144.HK), Esprit (0330.HK). (robert.li@dowjones.com)
0456 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi +1.3% at 1668.66 in light volume on hefty stock, futures buying by foreigners; led by renewed hopes for global liquidity to stay ample for a while after Fed's reassurance to keep low rate for "extended period," appointment of "government-friendly" OECD ambassador Kim Choong-soo as BOK chief, says Bae Sung-young at Hyundai Securities; expects Kospi's uptrend remain intact, but looks hard to break above year's high around 1700 as there's still uncertainty about global economic outlook. Techs highs, tracking U.S. peers after recent weakness; Samsung Electronics (005930.SE) +2.9% at KRW787,000, LG Display (034220.SE) +3.4% at KRW38,000 on foreign buying; Woori Finance (053000.SE) +4.8% at KRW15,200, outperforming peers on hopes for high profit earnings generated from Samsung Life Insurance IPO in May following Korea Life's (088350.SE), last +2.6% at KRW8,930, successful debut on Kospi today, says Ko Yong-uk at Daewoo Securities; notes Woori Bank has stake in Samsung. Also cites expectations Woori to make substantial earnings from sale of its stake in Hynix Monday. (soo-kyung.seo@dowjones.com)
0433 GMT [Dow Jones] Macquarie says its 12-month Topix target remains 1,050, which discounts the slow recovery cycle to FY ending March 2012. Topix at 1,050 correlates with 19X house's FY ending March 2011 expected EPS of Y55, and 16X its FY ending March 2012 expected EPS of Y65. Expects FY ending March 2013 Topix earnings to return to their FY ending 2006-2008 high plateau of about Y75. "The Japanese bull is enjoying climbing the hill, but is still dependent on global markets to lead the way. Our base case remains domestic policy passivity." Nikkei 225 Stock Average now +0.6% at 10,787.46, +2.3% for 2010; Topix +0.5% at 943.04; +3.9% for 2010. (bradford.frischkorn@dowjones.com)
0443 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore shares extend gains as solid rises for key regional bourses underpin initial boost from hopes U.S. interest rates to stay low for some time. STI +0.6% at 2,914.60 at midday vs morning low of 2,896.57 (flat) with resistance tipped at 2010 high of 2,947. Broad market volume picking up with 997 million shares traded vs only 680 million in yesterday's morning session; gainers outnumber losers 3 to 1. Trader at local brokerage says STI could be on its way to 3,000; "we are chugging along nicely and while there is not much in the way of news, the market is in a 'no news is good news' mentality." Offshore, marine plays leading blue chip gains, supported by spike in oil price; Cosco Corp. (F83.SG) +2.4% at S$1.30, Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG) +2.0% at S$9.17. (kirsty.green@dowjones.com)
0855 GMT 0000 GMT - EUR/USD is not having much luck hanging on to its post-Greece rescue package gains, says UniCredit. Suggests the pair needs to at least break over 1.3840 "to get more convinced to go long here." The pair is now at 1.3781.
0844 GMT [Dow Jones] Sterling has outperformed over the past 24 hours but now faces the hurdle of BOE minutes and labor data. RBS notes the MPC voted 9-0 in February to pause QE and this will likely also be the case in March. However, given the growing difference of opinion on QE among the MPC the bank says the discussion will be of interest. As for the labour data, RBS says while a better-than-expected print could see the pound rise further Wednesday, there are still plenty of reasons to expect further weakness in the week's ahead. GBP/USD now trades at 1.5222; EUR/GBP at 0.9051.(gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0812 GMT [Dow Jones] GBP/USD made strong gains Tuesday and has started to erode its downtrend says Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. It's now at 1.5255. The spot faces immediate resistance at 1.5275 and a break above here should trigger a deeper retracement toward 1.5575 and 1.5690. Alternatively, failure to overcome 1.5275 leaves the rate vulnerable toward Tuesday's low of 1.4975. GBP/USD now trades at 1.5215. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0433 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY's profit-taking drop after BOJ easing, to as low as 90.02 from 90.40 on EBS, likely short-lived as market focuses on other USD-positives like continued strength in Japanese shares; Nikkei 225 off highs but still +0.6%. "As this was widely expected, the dollar-yen's decline was just driven by the sell-on-the-fact after players bought the currency on a rumor," says Nomura Securities senior dealer Hiroshi Maeba. Expects pair may stick to 89.00-91.00 range in longer-term. Support at 89.80 vs last 90.30. EUR/JPY support put at 124.00 vs 124.41. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
0532 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY up as hedge funds, Japan institutional players buy pair as thick support around 90.00 held, causing them to get behind USD buying, says senior dealer at major Tokyo bank; "even though the BOJ's monetary easing was widely expected, that was also used as players' cue to buy back" USD. Resistance at 91.00 -- where Japan exporter sell-orders lie vs last 90.53. Another dealer notes USD/JPY likely to move in core range of 90.00-91.00 with lack of direction in coming week due to falling expectations Fed will hike rates anytime soon, after FOMC meeting overnight, coupled with BOJ's additional monetary easing. EUR/JPY rises in tandem with USD/JPY, topside at 125.00 vs last 124.81. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
0425 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold higher at $1,128.40/oz, up $2.50 vs NY close. Market "pretty directionless post-FOMC, much of the rise came before the announcement," says ScotiaMocatta precious metals director Peter Tse. Adds March traditionally quiet trading month for gold, other metals; tips gold to stay in $1,100-$1,140 range. "There are still too many uncertainties in Europe that could lead to a risk reversal that could quickly end this rally within the range," says Tse. (elisabeth.behrmann@dowjones.com)
0510 GMT [Dow Jones] AUD/USD continues to flirt around 0.9200; Jim Vrondas, a managing director with OzForex, reckons cross may have just gotten what it needs to push above that level after World Bank upgraded its growth outlook for China, Australia's largest trading partner. "That news will certainly give (AUD/USD) another leg up and could be enough to have the cross consolidate above 0.9200," says Vrondas. AUD/USD recently at 0.919. (geoffrey.rogow@dowjones.com)
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade |
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3722, 1.3677 and 1.3644(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3610, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3583. Break of the latter would result in 1.3567. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3542. Continuation will give 1.3517. Today's resistance: - 1.3795(main). Break would give 1.3816, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3840. Break of the latter would result in 1.3857. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3870. Continuation will give 1.3906.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 90.00, 89.78 and 89.60(main). Break would bring 89.54, where correction is possible. Then 89.31, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 88.92. If a strong impulse, we would see 88.67. Continuation would give 88.22. Today's resistance: - 90.54, 90.90 and 91.14(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 91.36, where also a correction may be. Then 91.65. If a strong impulse, we would see 91.96. Continuation will give 92.13.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 10620.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10572.19, where correction also can be. Then follows 10532.10. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10515.72. Continuation will bring 10479.40. Today's resistance: - 10702.24 and 10711.80(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 1068710736.72, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10752.20, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 10778.50. Continuation would bring 10803.63.
Crude Oil Is Poised to Test $90 a Barrel: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may head toward $90 a barrel if it breaks a resistance level at $82, according to a technical analysis by Auerbach Grayson, a brokerage in New York.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atgCeP60AUok
Dollar May Gain on ‘Resistance Zone’ Break: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may advance to this year’s high against the yen if it breaks through a “zone of resistance” near its 200-day moving average, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTV3seEmEEBk
Dollar-Yen May Rally to Near One-Year High: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may rally versus the yen to a level last seen 11 months ago as the Japanese currency regains its leading role in carry trades, according to Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alIShDkNgKsk
Loonie May Revisit Record High, SocGen Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Canadian dollar may push past parity with its U.S. counterpart and break through its 2007 record of $1.10 after the greenback breached a key support level, Societe Generale SA said, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHzbNDZdylaQ
S&P 500 May Gain 7% After Breaching 1,150: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may climb as much as 7 percent after breaching the 1,150 level last week, according to technical analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6Lh4132iew8
Silver ‘Struggles’ at $17.63, Barclays Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Silver is struggling to exceed a trading band of $17.48 to $17.63 an ounce, according to technical analysis by Barclays Capital.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afxIllCJwhd8
China in ‘Greatest Bubble in History,’ Rickards Says
(Bloomberg) -- China is in the midst of “the greatest bubble in history,” said James Rickards, former general counsel of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1GkooFTV2MM
VIX Index Fails to Predict Stock Market Moves, Birinyi Says
(Bloomberg) -- The most popular measure of expected swings in the stock market is all but useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices, according to a study from Birinyi Associates Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVDcatO6shYo
Investors Buy Stocks as Rate-Hike Concern Eases, Merrill Says
(Bloomberg) -- Risk appetite rebounded as concern eased that interest rates will have to rise later this year to cool inflation, prompting investors to cut cash holdings and buy equities, a BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report showed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTJPVQWXG0f0
Wednesday Look Ahead: Fed Waves on Rally, as Congress Feud with China Gains Momentum
By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor
The Fed again green lighted the risk rally. Stocks on Tuesday closed higher, and the dollar sank after the U.S. Federal Reserve made no changes to its low interest rate policy. Commodities-related materials stocks were the best performers, up 1.5 percent, followed by the financials, up 1.2 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35903585
World Bank Raises China 2010 GDP, Inflation Forecasts
By: Reuters
The World Bank raised its 2010 growth and inflation forecasts for China and recommended a tighter monetary policy as well as a stronger exchange rate to restrain inflation expectations and asset bubbles.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35905001
Housing Market Sure to Double-Dip: Whitney
By: Antonia Oprita Web Producer, CNBC.com
The US housing market will face another retreat while mortgage-backed securities and Treasurys are likely to go through a "material" correction, Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, told CNBC Tuesday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35887306
Is Share Buyback Tsunami an Investor Buy Signal?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35897709
0903 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR bounces up from intraday low on profit taking after massive selloff earlier in day; pair now at 9,110 vs 9,165 late Monday, but off 9,097 intraday low. "Capital inflows into the local stocks and bonds dragged the dollar lower," dealer says; Bank Indonesia was not heard buying pair in market; 9,100-9,130 range tipped for tomorrow. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0843 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesian government local bonds higher as Fed set to keep rates low for while; buying mostly in long tenors, dealers say. "Investors are buying the long tenors as they lagged behind recent gains in the short, and the medium tenors," dealer says; adds last week's upgrade in Indonesia's ratings by S&P seems to be still helping sentiment on long-term bonds. Yield of FR24 (due 2023) down at 9.47% vs 9.71% Monday; FR44 (due 2024) down at 9.74% vs 10.00%; FR40 (due 2026) down at 9.85% vs 10.06%, and FR75 (due 2028) down at 10.23% vs 10.39%; dealers expect bond market to extend gains tomorrow, especially long ends. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0413 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei up 0.4% at 10,768.63 after reaching 10,831.57 soon after BOJ announces further monetary policy easing steps by expanding fund-supplying program, market analysts say. "The central bank's decision is what has been expected...this is giving investors a relief, but they may start taking profits as the big news is (now) out," says Shinichiro Matsushita, market analyst at Daiwa Securities. Nikkei may stay between 10,700-10,850, he says. Such sectors as real estate and consumer finance will likely stay stronger mid-term as easy monetary policy, aimed at fighting deflation, boosts liquidity, enabling consumers to buy condos and increase general spending, he adds. Topix onsumer lending subindex leading board with 2.0% gain, real estate subindex also up 0.7%; Orix (8591.TO) up 2.8% to Y7,430. Mitsui Fudosan (8801.TO) up 0.9% to Y1,643. (ayai.tomisawa@dowjones.com)
0420 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI extends gains, now +1.6% at 21,350.23, though size of gains not noteworthy, index breaches extremely narrow 21,000-21,300 band held for past 7 sessions (though break yet to be confirmed with a close above range). Technicals likely to attract more buyers as such a break usually implies extension of gains or losses (depending on direction of break); aided by likely short-covering or investors cutting position on longs. Technical break usually accompanied by higher volume; today's market volume picks up to HK$29.69 billion with about half an hour until midday close, already above HK$28.81 billion at midday yesterday. 42 of 43 blue chips now higher; those rising at least 3% include HK & China Gas (0003.HK), SHK Properties (0016.HK), Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK), China Merchants (0144.HK), Esprit (0330.HK). (robert.li@dowjones.com)
0456 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi +1.3% at 1668.66 in light volume on hefty stock, futures buying by foreigners; led by renewed hopes for global liquidity to stay ample for a while after Fed's reassurance to keep low rate for "extended period," appointment of "government-friendly" OECD ambassador Kim Choong-soo as BOK chief, says Bae Sung-young at Hyundai Securities; expects Kospi's uptrend remain intact, but looks hard to break above year's high around 1700 as there's still uncertainty about global economic outlook. Techs highs, tracking U.S. peers after recent weakness; Samsung Electronics (005930.SE) +2.9% at KRW787,000, LG Display (034220.SE) +3.4% at KRW38,000 on foreign buying; Woori Finance (053000.SE) +4.8% at KRW15,200, outperforming peers on hopes for high profit earnings generated from Samsung Life Insurance IPO in May following Korea Life's (088350.SE), last +2.6% at KRW8,930, successful debut on Kospi today, says Ko Yong-uk at Daewoo Securities; notes Woori Bank has stake in Samsung. Also cites expectations Woori to make substantial earnings from sale of its stake in Hynix Monday. (soo-kyung.seo@dowjones.com)
0433 GMT [Dow Jones] Macquarie says its 12-month Topix target remains 1,050, which discounts the slow recovery cycle to FY ending March 2012. Topix at 1,050 correlates with 19X house's FY ending March 2011 expected EPS of Y55, and 16X its FY ending March 2012 expected EPS of Y65. Expects FY ending March 2013 Topix earnings to return to their FY ending 2006-2008 high plateau of about Y75. "The Japanese bull is enjoying climbing the hill, but is still dependent on global markets to lead the way. Our base case remains domestic policy passivity." Nikkei 225 Stock Average now +0.6% at 10,787.46, +2.3% for 2010; Topix +0.5% at 943.04; +3.9% for 2010. (bradford.frischkorn@dowjones.com)
0443 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore shares extend gains as solid rises for key regional bourses underpin initial boost from hopes U.S. interest rates to stay low for some time. STI +0.6% at 2,914.60 at midday vs morning low of 2,896.57 (flat) with resistance tipped at 2010 high of 2,947. Broad market volume picking up with 997 million shares traded vs only 680 million in yesterday's morning session; gainers outnumber losers 3 to 1. Trader at local brokerage says STI could be on its way to 3,000; "we are chugging along nicely and while there is not much in the way of news, the market is in a 'no news is good news' mentality." Offshore, marine plays leading blue chip gains, supported by spike in oil price; Cosco Corp. (F83.SG) +2.4% at S$1.30, Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG) +2.0% at S$9.17. (kirsty.green@dowjones.com)
0855 GMT 0000 GMT - EUR/USD is not having much luck hanging on to its post-Greece rescue package gains, says UniCredit. Suggests the pair needs to at least break over 1.3840 "to get more convinced to go long here." The pair is now at 1.3781.
0844 GMT [Dow Jones] Sterling has outperformed over the past 24 hours but now faces the hurdle of BOE minutes and labor data. RBS notes the MPC voted 9-0 in February to pause QE and this will likely also be the case in March. However, given the growing difference of opinion on QE among the MPC the bank says the discussion will be of interest. As for the labour data, RBS says while a better-than-expected print could see the pound rise further Wednesday, there are still plenty of reasons to expect further weakness in the week's ahead. GBP/USD now trades at 1.5222; EUR/GBP at 0.9051.(gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0812 GMT [Dow Jones] GBP/USD made strong gains Tuesday and has started to erode its downtrend says Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. It's now at 1.5255. The spot faces immediate resistance at 1.5275 and a break above here should trigger a deeper retracement toward 1.5575 and 1.5690. Alternatively, failure to overcome 1.5275 leaves the rate vulnerable toward Tuesday's low of 1.4975. GBP/USD now trades at 1.5215. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0433 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY's profit-taking drop after BOJ easing, to as low as 90.02 from 90.40 on EBS, likely short-lived as market focuses on other USD-positives like continued strength in Japanese shares; Nikkei 225 off highs but still +0.6%. "As this was widely expected, the dollar-yen's decline was just driven by the sell-on-the-fact after players bought the currency on a rumor," says Nomura Securities senior dealer Hiroshi Maeba. Expects pair may stick to 89.00-91.00 range in longer-term. Support at 89.80 vs last 90.30. EUR/JPY support put at 124.00 vs 124.41. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
0532 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY up as hedge funds, Japan institutional players buy pair as thick support around 90.00 held, causing them to get behind USD buying, says senior dealer at major Tokyo bank; "even though the BOJ's monetary easing was widely expected, that was also used as players' cue to buy back" USD. Resistance at 91.00 -- where Japan exporter sell-orders lie vs last 90.53. Another dealer notes USD/JPY likely to move in core range of 90.00-91.00 with lack of direction in coming week due to falling expectations Fed will hike rates anytime soon, after FOMC meeting overnight, coupled with BOJ's additional monetary easing. EUR/JPY rises in tandem with USD/JPY, topside at 125.00 vs last 124.81. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
0425 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold higher at $1,128.40/oz, up $2.50 vs NY close. Market "pretty directionless post-FOMC, much of the rise came before the announcement," says ScotiaMocatta precious metals director Peter Tse. Adds March traditionally quiet trading month for gold, other metals; tips gold to stay in $1,100-$1,140 range. "There are still too many uncertainties in Europe that could lead to a risk reversal that could quickly end this rally within the range," says Tse. (elisabeth.behrmann@dowjones.com)
0510 GMT [Dow Jones] AUD/USD continues to flirt around 0.9200; Jim Vrondas, a managing director with OzForex, reckons cross may have just gotten what it needs to push above that level after World Bank upgraded its growth outlook for China, Australia's largest trading partner. "That news will certainly give (AUD/USD) another leg up and could be enough to have the cross consolidate above 0.9200," says Vrondas. AUD/USD recently at 0.919. (geoffrey.rogow@dowjones.com)
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade |
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3722, 1.3677 and 1.3644(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3610, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3583. Break of the latter would result in 1.3567. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3542. Continuation will give 1.3517. Today's resistance: - 1.3795(main). Break would give 1.3816, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3840. Break of the latter would result in 1.3857. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3870. Continuation will give 1.3906.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 90.00, 89.78 and 89.60(main). Break would bring 89.54, where correction is possible. Then 89.31, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 88.92. If a strong impulse, we would see 88.67. Continuation would give 88.22. Today's resistance: - 90.54, 90.90 and 91.14(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 91.36, where also a correction may be. Then 91.65. If a strong impulse, we would see 91.96. Continuation will give 92.13.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 10620.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10572.19, where correction also can be. Then follows 10532.10. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10515.72. Continuation will bring 10479.40. Today's resistance: - 10702.24 and 10711.80(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 1068710736.72, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10752.20, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 10778.50. Continuation would bring 10803.63.
Crude Oil Is Poised to Test $90 a Barrel: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may head toward $90 a barrel if it breaks a resistance level at $82, according to a technical analysis by Auerbach Grayson, a brokerage in New York.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atgCeP60AUok
Dollar May Gain on ‘Resistance Zone’ Break: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may advance to this year’s high against the yen if it breaks through a “zone of resistance” near its 200-day moving average, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTV3seEmEEBk
Dollar-Yen May Rally to Near One-Year High: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may rally versus the yen to a level last seen 11 months ago as the Japanese currency regains its leading role in carry trades, according to Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alIShDkNgKsk
Loonie May Revisit Record High, SocGen Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Canadian dollar may push past parity with its U.S. counterpart and break through its 2007 record of $1.10 after the greenback breached a key support level, Societe Generale SA said, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHzbNDZdylaQ
S&P 500 May Gain 7% After Breaching 1,150: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may climb as much as 7 percent after breaching the 1,150 level last week, according to technical analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6Lh4132iew8
Silver ‘Struggles’ at $17.63, Barclays Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Silver is struggling to exceed a trading band of $17.48 to $17.63 an ounce, according to technical analysis by Barclays Capital.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afxIllCJwhd8
China in ‘Greatest Bubble in History,’ Rickards Says
(Bloomberg) -- China is in the midst of “the greatest bubble in history,” said James Rickards, former general counsel of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1GkooFTV2MM
VIX Index Fails to Predict Stock Market Moves, Birinyi Says
(Bloomberg) -- The most popular measure of expected swings in the stock market is all but useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices, according to a study from Birinyi Associates Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVDcatO6shYo
Investors Buy Stocks as Rate-Hike Concern Eases, Merrill Says
(Bloomberg) -- Risk appetite rebounded as concern eased that interest rates will have to rise later this year to cool inflation, prompting investors to cut cash holdings and buy equities, a BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report showed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTJPVQWXG0f0
Wednesday Look Ahead: Fed Waves on Rally, as Congress Feud with China Gains Momentum
By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor
The Fed again green lighted the risk rally. Stocks on Tuesday closed higher, and the dollar sank after the U.S. Federal Reserve made no changes to its low interest rate policy. Commodities-related materials stocks were the best performers, up 1.5 percent, followed by the financials, up 1.2 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35903585
World Bank Raises China 2010 GDP, Inflation Forecasts
By: Reuters
The World Bank raised its 2010 growth and inflation forecasts for China and recommended a tighter monetary policy as well as a stronger exchange rate to restrain inflation expectations and asset bubbles.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35905001
Housing Market Sure to Double-Dip: Whitney
By: Antonia Oprita Web Producer, CNBC.com
The US housing market will face another retreat while mortgage-backed securities and Treasurys are likely to go through a "material" correction, Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, told CNBC Tuesday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35887306
Is Share Buyback Tsunami an Investor Buy Signal?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35897709
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