Update Weekly Investment News

Indonesian Stocks Rise, Index Touches Record High on Earnings
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s benchmark stock index, Southeast Asia’s best performing market this year, touched a record high on expectations faster economic growth and record- low interest rates will boost earnings.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZK1D1xuh8pQ

Bumi 2009 Net Income Drops to $190.5 Million on One-Time Charge
April 3 (Bloomberg) -- PT Bumi Resources said 2009 net income fell to $190.5 million after posting a $275 million charge on deferred stripping expenses.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ahx8lL.cFu.0

Gas Negara 2009 Net Income Jumps Tenfold on Sales, Forex Gain
(Bloomberg) -- PT Perusahaan Gas Negara said 2009 net income jumped almost tenfold to 6.2 trillion rupiah from 633.9 billion rupiah a year earlier as sales increased and after posting a foreign exchange gain.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ai5Kec_xO1wI

Indonesia to Ease Property, Foreign Investment Rules
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia will allow foreigners to buy property in the country and own bigger stakes in health-care companies as it completes a review of investment rules, the country’s investment coordination agency said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aufDjZiHlrXU

Indonesia Inflation Slows, Central Bank May Hold Rate
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s inflation slowed last month, giving the central bank room to refrain from raising interest rates when it meets next week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apiFvHJKymaM

Service Industries Probably Accelerated: U.S. Economy Preview
(Bloomberg) -- Service industries probably expanded in March at the fastest pace since 2007, a sign the U.S. recovery is broadening as the job market turns around, economists said before reports this week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM_P4Lp6fURQ&pos=3

Greenspan Says ‘Momentum Building Up’ in U.S. Economy
Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said there is “a momentum building up” in the U.S. economy and the odds of it faltering have “fallen very significantly.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM4Pqh5KFHVs&pos=5


Job growth on the market's mind after long weekend
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/payrolls-on-the-markets-mind-after-long-weekend-2010-04-03
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/us-week-ahead-quiet-before-earnings-storm-2010-04-02/22F1F02E-0846-48A5-A063-8204BF37D97C

Nikkei 225 to Extend Rally on Elliott Wave: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average, the world’s most expensive developed-market benchmark gauge, may rise to 12,000, according to an “Elliott Wave” analysis by MF Global Holdings Ltd.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aF88oQ_ksGNc


Korea, Taiwan, Russian Markets May Advance Most, Barron’s Says
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market investors should consider putting their money into stocks of South Korean, Taiwanese, Turkish or Russian companies as the advance of some international markets slow, Barron’s reported.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXWOkg4HF5wc

Asian Currency Index May Rise 0.7% on Chart: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- An index of Asian currencies, trading at a 19-month high, may increase 0.7 percent by the end of April after rising beyond a key level, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1xTrJpoZcEo

China H Share Breakout Raises ‘Bull Flags’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong may be poised for gains of as much as 28 percent after a benchmark index yesterday staged a breakout from its resistance, according to CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a38wG8wo3oKM

Dollar May Rise to 8-Month High Versus Yen: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may extend gains versus Japan’s currency to reach an eight-month high of 95 yen, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asKgMiaG8rmc

Market Outlook: Investor Focus Turns to US Consumer, Fed
Now that the March jobs report is out of the way, investors will be looking for the next points of focus and a big one will be the consumer.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36152160

China’s Central Bank Sees Limited Rebound for Dollar
(Bloomberg) -- The People’s Bank of China said the U.S. dollar will have only a limited rebound in 2010 because of the nation’s high fiscal deficit and low interest rates.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2gveeN17wOo

Art Cashin: Why Bulls Continue to Lead Markets
According to the Labor Department, new jobless benefit claims dropped to a seasonally adjusted 439,000, marking the fourth drop in the last five weeks. Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services shared his market outlook.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36132869

Gold May Rise to $1,145, Commerzbank Says: Technical Analysis
March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Gold, heading for a sixth quarterly advance, may rise toward $1,135 to $1,145 an ounce, according to technical analysis by Commerzbank AG.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a1qF0QeiGBaY

S&P 500 to Climb to 1,220 on Market Breadth: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may climb about 4 percent to the 1,220 level after sliding as much as 50 points, according to an indicator of market breadth, said Peter Beuttell, a technical analyst at MTS Research.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAWvlExH8x_o

Global Economic Rebound: Week in Review
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYaECZL7Epog

S&P 500 Stocks Biggest Weekly Changes in Analyst Target Price
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afRQ88XEV2cA

Europe IPOs Outpace U.S. by Most Since ’07 Stock Peak
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ad6W1p1Dk8jY

Don’t Expect Much From U.S. Stocks in Next Decade: Chart of Day
March 31 (Bloomberg) -- This quarter’s gains in U.S. stocks have made them so costly relative to earnings that returns for the next 10 years may be minimal, according to Dylan Grice, a strategist at Societe Generale.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aIpSCAvx7lzI

Gold May Gain as Improving Economy Spurs Demand, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) -- Gold may gain as signs that the economy is improving boost demand for commodities such as the precious metal, a survey showed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajJBMTmUt.zI

Oil May Fall as U.S. Inventories Gain, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall next week as U.S. inventories increase and fuel consumption declines, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aWrtf00WdE6g

Commodities to Continue to Disappoint Investors: Chart of Day
April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Commodities, the worst performer among five asset classes in the first quarter, will continue to “struggle” as the dollar strengthens and China seeks to restrain growth, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSs0KBLtJaQ0

Loonie May Return to Within Penny of Parity: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ahbn1fbWFlqE

Goldman Says Commodities May Witness ‘Violent Price Spikes’
(Bloomberg) -- Commodities are set for “violent price spikes” as constraints on investment in new supplies and emerging market demand lead to shortages, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOMjkIVtKRU4

Energy Prices ‘Create a Floor’ for Palm Oil, LMC’s Fry Says
(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil is increasingly being supported by energy prices as demand for biofuels rises, James Fry, managing director of LMC International, said today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=at4GF2_EMx1o

Schork Says Oil May Reach $110 by July, Destroying Demand
April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc., said today that oil could reach $110 a barrel before July, prompting cutbacks by U.S. consumers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adxDS0Hi.yuU

Stock Market Rally, S&P 500 is on a Mission to Reach 1200 Over the Short-term

Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2014.
SPX: Long-term trend - Up! We are in a medium-term bull market, which is a corrective move within a long term bear market. This bull market should last until 2011
SPX: Intermediate trend - The Index continues its uptrend from March 2009. It looks sustainable for another few weeks.
By Andre Gratian
MarketTurningPoints.com

Identifying Markets' Turning Points

Sometimes a pattern has to play out before a turning point can be identified.
Elliott wave analysis is based on pattern recognition. Markets are patterned, not random, postulates the Wave Principle; once you know where you are in the pattern, you can forecast what likely comes next. Wave analysis can be especially effective at markets' turning points. Sometimes a wave pattern has to play out completely before a turning point can be identified. The "playing out" part can happen gradually or quickly. A cloudy sky becomes clear, visibility improves... and a key market juncture is identified. Your patience is rewarded.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/03/29/Identifying-Markets--Turning-Points.aspx

Indonesia, Get in on the Ground Floor of This Growing Global Profit Machine

By: Money_Morning

Jon D. Markman writes: I am enamored with Indonesia.
I've never been there. I've never met anyone from there. And it's not a country we hear much about. But it's the world's third-largest democracy (the current president got more votes than U.S. President Barack Obama). And it's one of the few Muslim countries - along with Turkey - that doesn't hate the United States as a matter of public policy.
http://moneymorning.com/2010/03/26/invest-in-indonesia/

Global Equities Strength and Consolidation to Mid-year

By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA

KEY POINTS:
• Range-bound trading expected to June/July
• Buying pressure and fair valuations for world index into mid-year
• Nikkei moves up with global markets. Economic, social problems persist for Japan
• Euro zone underperforms in sea of debt
• Australia points to higher world rates

World equity markets, whether we include or exclude the dominant S&P 500, are progressing well. Markets are not overbought or even overvalued (using forward earnings). They are simply advancing within a bull market.

Upward pressure
The chart of the MSCI World (ex USA) Index is displaying several important technical elements (Chart 13) compared to the combined global markets (Chart 14). First, is the main trend. That movement is still up but range-bound consolidation has clearly set in. There is stiff price resistance at the current range (1680-1700). Buying momentum (RSI) is falling back from near overbought levels. Price-to-earnings ratio is 14.17, which is fair value.

Chart 13
Looking at the broad-based Dow Jones World Stock Index (including USA) (Chart 14), there is a similar picture. RSI (Relative Strength Index) was overbought in March but is settling back (61.17). Buying momentum is rolling over. P/E is about 13.60 (forward earnings) which is an average valuation. The two charts illustrate just how joined global markets have become. Regardless of whether the US is included in the mix or not, the pattern is basically the same. They are mirrored to the $US dollar and flat trading under price resistance levels.

Chart 14

Bottom line: Models suggest a high probability of range-bound trading for global equities into mid-year. As the stock markets are trading on an average 16-week cycle. The next low is anticipated in June or early July. This implies that stable pressure can be expected in April and some selling pressure in May. With a backdrop of fair valuations, improving overall world GDP growth and steady buying pressure, the outlook remains positive for 2010.

Asia: Turnaround for Nikkei?

After 20 years of stock market decline and economic deflation, has the Nikkei is almost a forgotten index. But after all this time, has it finally reached the bottom and starting to turn around?